Heng83的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Heng83

Heng83

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10粉丝

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0勋章

2021-09-11

$Walt Disney(DIS)$[Smile]

2021-08-24

Good

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-11

Read

@看遍世界景赚足天下钱:投入、收益、爱

2021-07-06

Good

@独立分析师:7.6日早评:上周美股走强强势，并没有出现回调，科技股大票功不可没。目前日线周线与月线在技术面均存在与均线偏离度较大的情况，一旦回调到5日均线位置，都是加仓时机。纳指突破15000点后，再逐步降低仓位。本周重要消息面如下图所示，今日10:00公布非制造业PMI，7月8日凌晨2点，美联储会议纪要。这两条消息比较重要，但美联储的政策面已经基本定调，无需过于敏感。$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$ $A50指数主连(CNmain)$

2021-06-18

Good

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-16

Good

@Huatchin:Higher NIo goes

2021-06-15

AMC?

2021-06-14

Good

@Huatchin:Really for tomorrow bullish of SIA?

2021-06-13

Which share to go now?

2021-06-11

SIA flying up

2021-06-10

Buy more to average down

@Huatchin:Hold or buy more NIO

2021-06-09

Good

@Huatchin:nio nio & Tesla

2021-06-09

SPH up

2021-06-07

New weak ahead of NIO

2021-06-06

Could NIO reach 100

2021-06-05

Time to reap or hold

2021-06-03

Good

@Huatchin:AMC crazy hike

2021-06-03

Agree

@Huatchin:AMC crazy hike

2021-06-03

AMC AMC UP

2021-06-02

Moo moo to the moon!

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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like this one? Members of High Yield Investor get exclusive access to our model portfolio.</li> </ul> AT&amp;T (T) is a prized dividend stock for many retirees and for several good reasons. The company has a long history of consistently raising its dividend year-after-year, and, despite interest rates plummeting, the dividend yield stands at one of its most attractive levels ever:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>对于许多退休人员来说，T是一只珍贵的股息股票。</li><li>虽然收益率确实很有吸引力，而且商业模式相当稳定，但我们正在回避该股。</li><li>我们有三个共同的原因。</li><li>寻找像这样的创意组合？高收益投资者的成员可以独家访问我们的模型投资组合。</li></ul>对于许多退休人员来说，AT&amp;T(T)是一只珍贵的股息股票，这有几个很好的理由。该公司有着年复一年持续提高股息的悠久历史，尽管利率暴跌，股息收益率仍处于有史以来最具吸引力的水平之一：</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the company is excited about its HBO Max business, which it believes will enable it to compete in the high-growth streaming business, which will help add growth to its collection of otherwise slow-growth or even shrinking businesses.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，该公司对其HBO Max业务感到兴奋，它相信这将使其能够在高增长的流媒体业务中竞争，这将有助于增加其增长缓慢甚至萎缩的业务集合的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ec54f00b000550bd7abf30e458736e2\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>source</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源</i></blockquote></p><p> While all of this is true - and we are not outright bearish on the company - we are nonetheless avoiding T in our portfolio for the following three reasons:</p><p><blockquote>虽然所有这些都是真的——而且我们并不完全看跌该公司——但我们仍然出于以下三个原因在我们的投资组合中避免T：</blockquote></p><p> #1. Massive Debt Burden</p><p><blockquote>#1.巨额债务负担</blockquote></p><p> In recent years, T has blown up its balance sheet through fool-hardy acquisitions. They wasted $67 billion on afailed acquisition of DirectTVwhich later forced them towrite offa whopping $15.5 billion of it, admitting a near 25% destruction of shareholder value on the transaction. They also made several billion dollars worth of other write-offs last year alone as they have made bad investment after bad investment.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，T通过愚蠢的收购扩大了其资产负债表。他们在对DirectTV的收购失败上浪费了670亿美元，后来迫使他们注销了其中高达155亿美元的资产，并承认此次交易导致股东价值损失了近25%。仅去年一年，他们还进行了价值数十亿美元的其他冲销，因为他们进行了一次又一次的糟糕投资。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, today they stand a staggering ~$169B in net long-term debt:</p><p><blockquote>结果，如今他们的长期净债务高达约169B美元：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eb1ad70166998d0cc820e783e8edc53\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> Ten years ago, they held roughly a third of that level of net long-term debt and twenty years ago, they held a small fraction of that debt level. Despite that, their EBITDA has not increased all that much over that span and has in fact remained flat over the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>十年前，他们持有的长期净债务水平的大约三分之一，而二十年前，他们持有的债务水平的一小部分。尽管如此，他们的EBITDA在此期间并没有增加太多，事实上在过去十年中一直保持平稳。</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> With such an enormous debt burden, T will be unable to respond opportunistically moving forward and - instead of improving capital returns to shareholders - it will have to make satisfying its debt masters top priority.</p><p><blockquote>面对如此巨大的债务负担，T将无法机会主义地应对未来，并且必须将满足债务主人的首要任务，而不是提高股东的资本回报。</blockquote></p><p> #2. Weak Business Model</p><p><blockquote>#2.商业模式薄弱</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, as its poor acquisition track record implies, T's businesses are mostly very weak and display poor profitability. As the chart below illustrates, T's return on invested capital and return on assets have been pretty abysmal, routinely hovering in the mid-single digits.</p><p><blockquote>此外，正如其糟糕的收购记录所暗示的那样，T的业务大多非常疲软，盈利能力也很差。如下图所示，T的投资资本回报率和资产回报率相当糟糕，通常徘徊在中个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51648e8248efb01d0de23d5eecb0bc96\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> As a result, their spread on the debt they are taking on is very thin, leaving them little margin for error and failing to generate an attractive risk-reward for investors.</p><p><blockquote>因此，他们所承担债务的利差非常小，几乎没有犯错的余地，也无法为投资者带来有吸引力的风险回报。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, AT&amp;T's best businesses - HBO Max and Fiber - are technology-heavy and are therefore exposed to heavy competition. With its declining legacy businesses weighing on results and its heavy debt burden demanding ever-increasing amounts of attention and capital, it will be very difficult for T to be able to go toe-to-toe with financially stronger competitors in technological races.</p><p><blockquote>此外，美国电话电报公司最好的业务——HBO Max和光纤——都是技术密集型的，因此面临着激烈的竞争。由于传统业务的衰落影响了业绩，沉重的债务负担需要越来越多的关注和资本，T很难在技术竞赛中与财务实力更强的竞争对手正面交锋。</blockquote></p><p> Given the heavy reliance on debt issuance to generate growth over the past decade, the very weak returns on assets and invested capital, the declining performance of many of its businesses, and the heavy technological competition facing T's few growth industries, we are not optimistic at all that T will be able to generate much growth - if any - in the years to come. This, in turn, will compound their debt problem by making it harder for them to naturally deleverage the balance sheet through growth.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于过去十年严重依赖债务发行来实现增长、资产和投资资本回报率非常疲弱、许多业务的业绩下滑以及T少数增长行业面临的激烈技术竞争，我们并不乐观所有T将能够在未来几年产生大量增长（如果有的话）。反过来，这将使它们更难通过增长自然地去杠杆化资产负债表，从而加剧它们的债务问题。</blockquote></p><p> #3. Unattractive Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#3.估值不具吸引力</blockquote></p><p> Even worse, T's fat dividend yield and apparently cheap share price are a mere mirage.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，T丰厚的股息收益率和明显便宜的股价只是海市蜃楼。</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> Many unsophisticated and unsuspecting retirees simply look at the dividend yield and the share price and think a company is cheap if the share price is near decade lows and the yield is near all-time highs. Furthermore, in a company like T which, until this year, had a 36-year dividend growth streak and has been a fixture in the American telecom industry for decades, many investors believe it is rock solid.</p><p><blockquote>许多不成熟且毫无戒心的退休人员只是简单地看看股息收益率和股价，就认为如果股价接近十年低点而收益率接近历史高点，那么一家公司就很便宜。此外，对于像T这样的公司来说，直到今年为止，股息已经连续增长了36年，并且几十年来一直是美国电信行业的固定产品，许多投资者认为它坚如磐石。</blockquote></p><p> Their 65% dividend payout ratio only further solidifies this sentiment as it gives off the impression that the dividend is very safe.</p><p><blockquote>他们65%的股息支付率只会进一步巩固这种情绪，因为它给人的印象是股息非常安全。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Unfortunately, due to the aforementioned heavy debt burden, the cheapness of T's share price and the safety of its dividend are both illusions. While the share price merely reflects the market cap (i.e., equity valuation) of a company, a more accurate reflection of its current market valuation is its enterprise value (i.e., total sales price when including equity and debt).</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，由于前述沉重的债务负担，T股价的便宜和股息的安全都是幻想。虽然股价仅反映公司的市值（即股权估值），但更准确反映其当前市场估值的是其企业价值（即包括股权和债务的总销售价格）。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, over the past decade, T's enterprise value has outpaced its market cap by over three times, implying that shares are not nearly as cheap as they might imply on the surface.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，在过去十年中，T的企业价值超过了其市值三倍多，这意味着股价并不像表面上暗示的那么便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/237e4dedc7880ce1dbb85d5f3af3f87a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> As a result, T's true valuation in enterprise value to EBITDA terms makes the company look very expensive on a historical basis:</p><p><blockquote>因此，T的企业价值与EBITDA的真实估值使该公司在历史基础上看起来非常昂贵：</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, the dividend is not nearly as safe as the 65% payout ratio implies. In fact, ~98% of revenue is currently being consumed by expenses and the dividend, giving management a mere ~2% cushion to continue covering its dividend.</p><p><blockquote>此外，股息并不像65%的派息率所暗示的那样安全。事实上，目前约98%的收入被费用和股息消耗，这使得管理层只有约2%的缓冲来继续支付股息。</blockquote></p><p> While the business model is diversified and stable enough that this should be sufficient under current conditions, the simple truth is that the company's recent trends are not convincing that it is headed in the right direction. While the chart below does show interest expenses declining relative to revenues and EBITDA over the past quarter, this is an exception to the rule over the past five years, meaning that the company has much to prove in the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>虽然商业模式足够多元化和稳定，在当前条件下这应该足够了，但简单的事实是，该公司最近的趋势并不能令人信服地表明它正朝着正确的方向前进。虽然下图确实显示，过去一个季度利息支出相对于收入和EBITDA有所下降，但这是过去五年规则的例外，这意味着该公司在未来几个季度还有很多事情需要证明。</blockquote></p><p> &lt;&lt;&lt;图片加载中。。。&gt;&gt;&gt;Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>&lt;&lt;&lt;图片加载中。。。&gt;&gt;&gt;数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, inflation is surging, meaning that there will continue to be upward pressure on interest rates. With such a massive debt burden, if interest rates rise materially for an extended period of time, T will quickly see its dividend coverage erode as more and more cash flow is consumed by increased interest costs. As a result, management will be forced to shift priorities from supporting a large and burdensome dividend to diverting as much cash as possible towards paying down debt.</p><p><blockquote>此外，通胀正在飙升，这意味着利率将继续面临上行压力。在如此庞大的债务负担下，如果利率长期大幅上升，随着越来越多的现金流被利息成本增加消耗，T的股息覆盖率将很快受到侵蚀。因此，管理层将被迫将优先事项从支持巨额且繁重的股息转向将尽可能多的现金用于偿还债务。</blockquote></p><p> Last, but not least, T's forays into streaming and fiber - while filled with growth potential - are also very capital-intensive. T will have to spend a lot of money to generate sufficient content to compete with the likes of Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Disney (DIS), and Apple (AAPL) in streaming wars and fiber infrastructure is very expensive to build out and faces limited barriers to entry. As a result of these capital demands, one or both of these business ventures may eventually push T to slash its dividend.</p><p><blockquote>最后但并非最不重要的一点是，T对流媒体和光纤的进军虽然充满增长潜力，但也是非常资本密集型的。我们将不得不花费大量资金来生成足够的内容，以便在流媒体战争中与Netflix(NFLX)、Amazon(AMZN)、Disney(DIS)和苹果(AAPL)等公司竞争，而且光纤基础设施的建设成本非常昂贵。并面临有限的进入壁垒。由于这些资本需求，这些商业企业中的一个或两个最终可能会促使T削减股息。</blockquote></p><p> Already, the company is signaling that its dividend is not as safe as some may think it is. On theirQ4 2020 earnings call, management announced the inevitable:</p><p><blockquote>该公司已经发出信号，表明其股息并不像一些人想象的那么安全。在2020年第四季度收益看涨期权上，管理层宣布了不可避免的事情：</blockquote></p><p>   We plan to use free cash flow after dividends for the next couple of years to pay down debt. We remain focused on monetizing noncore assets and using those funds for debt reduction as well. We’re committed to  <b>sustaining our dividend at current levels</b>, and we’ll give top priority to debt reduction, at this time.  While it is encouraging to hear them acknowledging their debt problem and announce initiatives to address it, the fact that they have to freeze their dividend at current levels despite being a proud Dividend Aristocrat is very telling.</p><p><blockquote>我们计划在未来几年使用股息后的自由现金流来偿还债务。我们仍然专注于非核心资产货币化，并利用这些资金减少债务。我们致力于<b>将股息维持在当前水平</b>目前，我们将把减少债务放在首位。虽然听到他们承认自己的债务问题并宣布解决该问题的举措令人鼓舞，但尽管他们是一位自豪的股息贵族，但他们不得不将股息冻结在当前水平的事实很能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> Investor Takeaway</p><p><blockquote>投资者要点</blockquote></p><p> While T'sfirst quarter resultsmay have cheered some investors with strong HBO Max performance and improved performance in its core wireless and broadband businesses, we see the bigger picture issues as unchanged. The debt remains far too high, their growth businesses remain outclassed by competition with far more financial flexibility than them, and their EV/EBITDA is hardly what we would call cheap. Last, but not least, the main reason for investing in T (its dividend) has been frozen indefinitely while the company focuses on deleveraging. Given the growth challenges they face, we believe this might take a long time to accomplish and, if interest rates rise meaningfully for a sustained period of time, management will likely be forced to slash the dividend.</p><p><blockquote>虽然T的第一季度业绩可能因HBO Max的强劲表现及其核心无线和宽带业务业绩的改善而让一些投资者感到高兴，但我们认为更大的问题没有改变。债务仍然过高，他们的成长型业务仍然被财务灵活性比他们高得多的竞争对手所超越，而且他们的EV/EBITDA很难达到我们看涨期权便宜的水平。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，在公司专注于去杠杆化的同时，投资T（其股息）的主要原因已被无限期冻结。鉴于他们面临的增长挑战，我们认为这可能需要很长时间才能实现，如果利率持续大幅上升，管理层可能会被迫削减股息。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, T is not significantly overpriced and we are neutral on its risk-adjusted total returns moving forward. However, we simply do not find it attractive enough to add to our portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，T的定价并没有明显过高，我们对其未来风险调整后的总回报持中性态度。然而，我们只是觉得它没有足够的吸引力来添加到我们的投资组合中。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons To Avoid AT&T<blockquote>避开AT&amp;T的3个理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons To Avoid AT&T<blockquote>避开AT&amp;T的3个理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seeking alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-07 13:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>T is a prized dividend stock for many retirees.</li>  <li>While the yield is certainly attractive and the business model is quite stable, we are avoiding the stock.</li>  <li>We share three reasons why.</li>  <li>Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of High Yield Investor get exclusive access to our model portfolio.</li> </ul> AT&amp;T (T) is a prized dividend stock for many retirees and for several good reasons. The company has a long history of consistently raising its dividend year-after-year, and, despite interest rates plummeting, the dividend yield stands at one of its most attractive levels ever:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>对于许多退休人员来说，T是一只珍贵的股息股票。</li><li>虽然收益率确实很有吸引力，而且商业模式相当稳定，但我们正在回避该股。</li><li>我们有三个共同的原因。</li><li>寻找像这样的创意组合？高收益投资者的成员可以独家访问我们的模型投资组合。</li></ul>对于许多退休人员来说，AT&amp;T(T)是一只珍贵的股息股票，这有几个很好的理由。该公司有着年复一年持续提高股息的悠久历史，尽管利率暴跌，股息收益率仍处于有史以来最具吸引力的水平之一：</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the company is excited about its HBO Max business, which it believes will enable it to compete in the high-growth streaming business, which will help add growth to its collection of otherwise slow-growth or even shrinking businesses.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，该公司对其HBO Max业务感到兴奋，它相信这将使其能够在高增长的流媒体业务中竞争，这将有助于增加其增长缓慢甚至萎缩的业务集合的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ec54f00b000550bd7abf30e458736e2\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>source</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源</i></blockquote></p><p> While all of this is true - and we are not outright bearish on the company - we are nonetheless avoiding T in our portfolio for the following three reasons:</p><p><blockquote>虽然所有这些都是真的——而且我们并不完全看跌该公司——但我们仍然出于以下三个原因在我们的投资组合中避免T：</blockquote></p><p> #1. Massive Debt Burden</p><p><blockquote>#1.巨额债务负担</blockquote></p><p> In recent years, T has blown up its balance sheet through fool-hardy acquisitions. They wasted $67 billion on afailed acquisition of DirectTVwhich later forced them towrite offa whopping $15.5 billion of it, admitting a near 25% destruction of shareholder value on the transaction. They also made several billion dollars worth of other write-offs last year alone as they have made bad investment after bad investment.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，T通过愚蠢的收购扩大了其资产负债表。他们在对DirectTV的收购失败上浪费了670亿美元，后来迫使他们注销了其中高达155亿美元的资产，并承认此次交易导致股东价值损失了近25%。仅去年一年，他们还进行了价值数十亿美元的其他冲销，因为他们进行了一次又一次的糟糕投资。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, today they stand a staggering ~$169B in net long-term debt:</p><p><blockquote>结果，如今他们的长期净债务高达约169B美元：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eb1ad70166998d0cc820e783e8edc53\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> Ten years ago, they held roughly a third of that level of net long-term debt and twenty years ago, they held a small fraction of that debt level. Despite that, their EBITDA has not increased all that much over that span and has in fact remained flat over the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>十年前，他们持有的长期净债务水平的大约三分之一，而二十年前，他们持有的债务水平的一小部分。尽管如此，他们的EBITDA在此期间并没有增加太多，事实上在过去十年中一直保持平稳。</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> With such an enormous debt burden, T will be unable to respond opportunistically moving forward and - instead of improving capital returns to shareholders - it will have to make satisfying its debt masters top priority.</p><p><blockquote>面对如此巨大的债务负担，T将无法机会主义地应对未来，并且必须将满足债务主人的首要任务，而不是提高股东的资本回报。</blockquote></p><p> #2. Weak Business Model</p><p><blockquote>#2.商业模式薄弱</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, as its poor acquisition track record implies, T's businesses are mostly very weak and display poor profitability. As the chart below illustrates, T's return on invested capital and return on assets have been pretty abysmal, routinely hovering in the mid-single digits.</p><p><blockquote>此外，正如其糟糕的收购记录所暗示的那样，T的业务大多非常疲软，盈利能力也很差。如下图所示，T的投资资本回报率和资产回报率相当糟糕，通常徘徊在中个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51648e8248efb01d0de23d5eecb0bc96\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> As a result, their spread on the debt they are taking on is very thin, leaving them little margin for error and failing to generate an attractive risk-reward for investors.</p><p><blockquote>因此，他们所承担债务的利差非常小，几乎没有犯错的余地，也无法为投资者带来有吸引力的风险回报。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, AT&amp;T's best businesses - HBO Max and Fiber - are technology-heavy and are therefore exposed to heavy competition. With its declining legacy businesses weighing on results and its heavy debt burden demanding ever-increasing amounts of attention and capital, it will be very difficult for T to be able to go toe-to-toe with financially stronger competitors in technological races.</p><p><blockquote>此外，美国电话电报公司最好的业务——HBO Max和光纤——都是技术密集型的，因此面临着激烈的竞争。由于传统业务的衰落影响了业绩，沉重的债务负担需要越来越多的关注和资本，T很难在技术竞赛中与财务实力更强的竞争对手正面交锋。</blockquote></p><p> Given the heavy reliance on debt issuance to generate growth over the past decade, the very weak returns on assets and invested capital, the declining performance of many of its businesses, and the heavy technological competition facing T's few growth industries, we are not optimistic at all that T will be able to generate much growth - if any - in the years to come. This, in turn, will compound their debt problem by making it harder for them to naturally deleverage the balance sheet through growth.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于过去十年严重依赖债务发行来实现增长、资产和投资资本回报率非常疲弱、许多业务的业绩下滑以及T少数增长行业面临的激烈技术竞争，我们并不乐观所有T将能够在未来几年产生大量增长（如果有的话）。反过来，这将使它们更难通过增长自然地去杠杆化资产负债表，从而加剧它们的债务问题。</blockquote></p><p> #3. Unattractive Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#3.估值不具吸引力</blockquote></p><p> Even worse, T's fat dividend yield and apparently cheap share price are a mere mirage.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，T丰厚的股息收益率和明显便宜的股价只是海市蜃楼。</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> Many unsophisticated and unsuspecting retirees simply look at the dividend yield and the share price and think a company is cheap if the share price is near decade lows and the yield is near all-time highs. Furthermore, in a company like T which, until this year, had a 36-year dividend growth streak and has been a fixture in the American telecom industry for decades, many investors believe it is rock solid.</p><p><blockquote>许多不成熟且毫无戒心的退休人员只是简单地看看股息收益率和股价，就认为如果股价接近十年低点而收益率接近历史高点，那么一家公司就很便宜。此外，对于像T这样的公司来说，直到今年为止，股息已经连续增长了36年，并且几十年来一直是美国电信行业的固定产品，许多投资者认为它坚如磐石。</blockquote></p><p> Their 65% dividend payout ratio only further solidifies this sentiment as it gives off the impression that the dividend is very safe.</p><p><blockquote>他们65%的股息支付率只会进一步巩固这种情绪，因为它给人的印象是股息非常安全。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Unfortunately, due to the aforementioned heavy debt burden, the cheapness of T's share price and the safety of its dividend are both illusions. While the share price merely reflects the market cap (i.e., equity valuation) of a company, a more accurate reflection of its current market valuation is its enterprise value (i.e., total sales price when including equity and debt).</p><p><blockquote>不幸的是，由于前述沉重的债务负担，T股价的便宜和股息的安全都是幻想。虽然股价仅反映公司的市值（即股权估值），但更准确反映其当前市场估值的是其企业价值（即包括股权和债务的总销售价格）。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, over the past decade, T's enterprise value has outpaced its market cap by over three times, implying that shares are not nearly as cheap as they might imply on the surface.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，在过去十年中，T的企业价值超过了其市值三倍多，这意味着股价并不像表面上暗示的那么便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/237e4dedc7880ce1dbb85d5f3af3f87a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> As a result, T's true valuation in enterprise value to EBITDA terms makes the company look very expensive on a historical basis:</p><p><blockquote>因此，T的企业价值与EBITDA的真实估值使该公司在历史基础上看起来非常昂贵：</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, the dividend is not nearly as safe as the 65% payout ratio implies. In fact, ~98% of revenue is currently being consumed by expenses and the dividend, giving management a mere ~2% cushion to continue covering its dividend.</p><p><blockquote>此外，股息并不像65%的派息率所暗示的那样安全。事实上，目前约98%的收入被费用和股息消耗，这使得管理层只有约2%的缓冲来继续支付股息。</blockquote></p><p> While the business model is diversified and stable enough that this should be sufficient under current conditions, the simple truth is that the company's recent trends are not convincing that it is headed in the right direction. While the chart below does show interest expenses declining relative to revenues and EBITDA over the past quarter, this is an exception to the rule over the past five years, meaning that the company has much to prove in the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>虽然商业模式足够多元化和稳定，在当前条件下这应该足够了，但简单的事实是，该公司最近的趋势并不能令人信服地表明它正朝着正确的方向前进。虽然下图确实显示，过去一个季度利息支出相对于收入和EBITDA有所下降，但这是过去五年规则的例外，这意味着该公司在未来几个季度还有很多事情需要证明。</blockquote></p><p> &lt;&lt;&lt;图片加载中。。。&gt;&gt;&gt;Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>&lt;&lt;&lt;图片加载中。。。&gt;&gt;&gt;数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, inflation is surging, meaning that there will continue to be upward pressure on interest rates. With such a massive debt burden, if interest rates rise materially for an extended period of time, T will quickly see its dividend coverage erode as more and more cash flow is consumed by increased interest costs. As a result, management will be forced to shift priorities from supporting a large and burdensome dividend to diverting as much cash as possible towards paying down debt.</p><p><blockquote>此外，通胀正在飙升，这意味着利率将继续面临上行压力。在如此庞大的债务负担下，如果利率长期大幅上升，随着越来越多的现金流被利息成本增加消耗，T的股息覆盖率将很快受到侵蚀。因此，管理层将被迫将优先事项从支持巨额且繁重的股息转向将尽可能多的现金用于偿还债务。</blockquote></p><p> Last, but not least, T's forays into streaming and fiber - while filled with growth potential - are also very capital-intensive. T will have to spend a lot of money to generate sufficient content to compete with the likes of Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Disney (DIS), and Apple (AAPL) in streaming wars and fiber infrastructure is very expensive to build out and faces limited barriers to entry. As a result of these capital demands, one or both of these business ventures may eventually push T to slash its dividend.</p><p><blockquote>最后但并非最不重要的一点是，T对流媒体和光纤的进军虽然充满增长潜力，但也是非常资本密集型的。我们将不得不花费大量资金来生成足够的内容，以便在流媒体战争中与Netflix(NFLX)、Amazon(AMZN)、Disney(DIS)和苹果(AAPL)等公司竞争，而且光纤基础设施的建设成本非常昂贵。并面临有限的进入壁垒。由于这些资本需求，这些商业企业中的一个或两个最终可能会促使T削减股息。</blockquote></p><p> Already, the company is signaling that its dividend is not as safe as some may think it is. On theirQ4 2020 earnings call, management announced the inevitable:</p><p><blockquote>该公司已经发出信号，表明其股息并不像一些人想象的那么安全。在2020年第四季度收益看涨期权上，管理层宣布了不可避免的事情：</blockquote></p><p>   We plan to use free cash flow after dividends for the next couple of years to pay down debt. We remain focused on monetizing noncore assets and using those funds for debt reduction as well. We’re committed to  <b>sustaining our dividend at current levels</b>, and we’ll give top priority to debt reduction, at this time.  While it is encouraging to hear them acknowledging their debt problem and announce initiatives to address it, the fact that they have to freeze their dividend at current levels despite being a proud Dividend Aristocrat is very telling.</p><p><blockquote>我们计划在未来几年使用股息后的自由现金流来偿还债务。我们仍然专注于非核心资产货币化，并利用这些资金减少债务。我们致力于<b>将股息维持在当前水平</b>目前，我们将把减少债务放在首位。虽然听到他们承认自己的债务问题并宣布解决该问题的举措令人鼓舞，但尽管他们是一位自豪的股息贵族，但他们不得不将股息冻结在当前水平的事实很能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> Investor Takeaway</p><p><blockquote>投资者要点</blockquote></p><p> While T'sfirst quarter resultsmay have cheered some investors with strong HBO Max performance and improved performance in its core wireless and broadband businesses, we see the bigger picture issues as unchanged. The debt remains far too high, their growth businesses remain outclassed by competition with far more financial flexibility than them, and their EV/EBITDA is hardly what we would call cheap. Last, but not least, the main reason for investing in T (its dividend) has been frozen indefinitely while the company focuses on deleveraging. Given the growth challenges they face, we believe this might take a long time to accomplish and, if interest rates rise meaningfully for a sustained period of time, management will likely be forced to slash the dividend.</p><p><blockquote>虽然T的第一季度业绩可能因HBO Max的强劲表现及其核心无线和宽带业务业绩的改善而让一些投资者感到高兴，但我们认为更大的问题没有改变。债务仍然过高，他们的成长型业务仍然被财务灵活性比他们高得多的竞争对手所超越，而且他们的EV/EBITDA很难达到我们看涨期权便宜的水平。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，在公司专注于去杠杆化的同时，投资T（其股息）的主要原因已被无限期冻结。鉴于他们面临的增长挑战，我们认为这可能需要很长时间才能实现，如果利率持续大幅上升，管理层可能会被迫削减股息。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, T is not significantly overpriced and we are neutral on its risk-adjusted total returns moving forward. However, we simply do not find it attractive enough to add to our portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，T的定价并没有明显过高，我们对其未来风险调整后的总回报持中性态度。然而，我们只是觉得它没有足够的吸引力来添加到我们的投资组合中。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424895-at-t-3-reasons-to-avoid\">seeking alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"T":"At&T"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424895-at-t-3-reasons-to-avoid","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176438696","content_text":"Summary\n\nT is a prized dividend stock for many retirees.\nWhile the yield is certainly attractive and the business model is quite stable, we are avoiding the stock.\nWe share three reasons why.\nLooking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of High Yield Investor get exclusive access to our model portfolio.\n\nAT&T (T) is a prized dividend stock for many retirees and for several good reasons. The company has a long history of consistently raising its dividend year-after-year, and, despite interest rates plummeting, the dividend yield stands at one of its most attractive levels ever:\nData by YCharts\nMeanwhile, the company is excited about its HBO Max business, which it believes will enable it to compete in the high-growth streaming business, which will help add growth to its collection of otherwise slow-growth or even shrinking businesses.\n\nsource\nWhile all of this is true - and we are not outright bearish on the company - we are nonetheless avoiding T in our portfolio for the following three reasons:\n#1. Massive Debt Burden\nIn recent years, T has blown up its balance sheet through fool-hardy acquisitions. They wasted $67 billion on afailed acquisition of DirectTVwhich later forced them towrite offa whopping $15.5 billion of it, admitting a near 25% destruction of shareholder value on the transaction. They also made several billion dollars worth of other write-offs last year alone as they have made bad investment after bad investment.\nAs a result, today they stand a staggering ~$169B in net long-term debt:\nData by YCharts\nTen years ago, they held roughly a third of that level of net long-term debt and twenty years ago, they held a small fraction of that debt level. Despite that, their EBITDA has not increased all that much over that span and has in fact remained flat over the past decade.\nData by YCharts\nWith such an enormous debt burden, T will be unable to respond opportunistically moving forward and - instead of improving capital returns to shareholders - it will have to make satisfying its debt masters top priority.\n#2. Weak Business Model\nAdditionally, as its poor acquisition track record implies, T's businesses are mostly very weak and display poor profitability. As the chart below illustrates, T's return on invested capital and return on assets have been pretty abysmal, routinely hovering in the mid-single digits.\nData by YCharts\nAs a result, their spread on the debt they are taking on is very thin, leaving them little margin for error and failing to generate an attractive risk-reward for investors.\nFurthermore, AT&T's best businesses - HBO Max and Fiber - are technology-heavy and are therefore exposed to heavy competition. With its declining legacy businesses weighing on results and its heavy debt burden demanding ever-increasing amounts of attention and capital, it will be very difficult for T to be able to go toe-to-toe with financially stronger competitors in technological races.\nGiven the heavy reliance on debt issuance to generate growth over the past decade, the very weak returns on assets and invested capital, the declining performance of many of its businesses, and the heavy technological competition facing T's few growth industries, we are not optimistic at all that T will be able to generate much growth - if any - in the years to come. This, in turn, will compound their debt problem by making it harder for them to naturally deleverage the balance sheet through growth.\n#3. Unattractive Valuation\nEven worse, T's fat dividend yield and apparently cheap share price are a mere mirage.\nData by YCharts\nMany unsophisticated and unsuspecting retirees simply look at the dividend yield and the share price and think a company is cheap if the share price is near decade lows and the yield is near all-time highs. Furthermore, in a company like T which, until this year, had a 36-year dividend growth streak and has been a fixture in the American telecom industry for decades, many investors believe it is rock solid.\nTheir 65% dividend payout ratio only further solidifies this sentiment as it gives off the impression that the dividend is very safe.\nUnfortunately, due to the aforementioned heavy debt burden, the cheapness of T's share price and the safety of its dividend are both illusions. While the share price merely reflects the market cap (i.e., equity valuation) of a company, a more accurate reflection of its current market valuation is its enterprise value (i.e., total sales price when including equity and debt).\nAs you can see, over the past decade, T's enterprise value has outpaced its market cap by over three times, implying that shares are not nearly as cheap as they might imply on the surface.\nData by YCharts\nAs a result, T's true valuation in enterprise value to EBITDA terms makes the company look very expensive on a historical basis:\nFurthermore, the dividend is not nearly as safe as the 65% payout ratio implies. In fact, ~98% of revenue is currently being consumed by expenses and the dividend, giving management a mere ~2% cushion to continue covering its dividend.\nWhile the business model is diversified and stable enough that this should be sufficient under current conditions, the simple truth is that the company's recent trends are not convincing that it is headed in the right direction. While the chart below does show interest expenses declining relative to revenues and EBITDA over the past quarter, this is an exception to the rule over the past five years, meaning that the company has much to prove in the coming quarters.\n<<<图片加载中。。。>>>Data by YCharts\nFurthermore, inflation is surging, meaning that there will continue to be upward pressure on interest rates. With such a massive debt burden, if interest rates rise materially for an extended period of time, T will quickly see its dividend coverage erode as more and more cash flow is consumed by increased interest costs. As a result, management will be forced to shift priorities from supporting a large and burdensome dividend to diverting as much cash as possible towards paying down debt.\nLast, but not least, T's forays into streaming and fiber - while filled with growth potential - are also very capital-intensive. T will have to spend a lot of money to generate sufficient content to compete with the likes of Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Disney (DIS), and Apple (AAPL) in streaming wars and fiber infrastructure is very expensive to build out and faces limited barriers to entry. As a result of these capital demands, one or both of these business ventures may eventually push T to slash its dividend.\nAlready, the company is signaling that its dividend is not as safe as some may think it is. On theirQ4 2020 earnings call, management announced the inevitable:\n\n We plan to use free cash flow after dividends for the next couple of years to pay down debt. We remain focused on monetizing noncore assets and using those funds for debt reduction as well. We’re committed to\n sustaining our dividend at current levels, and we’ll give top priority to debt reduction, at this time.\n\nWhile it is encouraging to hear them acknowledging their debt problem and announce initiatives to address it, the fact that they have to freeze their dividend at current levels despite being a proud Dividend Aristocrat is very telling.\nInvestor Takeaway\nWhile T'sfirst quarter resultsmay have cheered some investors with strong HBO Max performance and improved performance in its core wireless and broadband businesses, we see the bigger picture issues as unchanged. The debt remains far too high, their growth businesses remain outclassed by competition with far more financial flexibility than them, and their EV/EBITDA is hardly what we would call cheap. Last, but not least, the main reason for investing in T (its dividend) has been frozen indefinitely while the company focuses on deleveraging. Given the growth challenges they face, we believe this might take a long time to accomplish and, if interest rates rise meaningfully for a sustained period of time, management will likely be forced to slash the dividend.\nAll that said, T is not significantly overpriced and we are neutral on its risk-adjusted total returns moving forward. However, we simply do not find it attractive enough to add to our 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tonight","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/138550538","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102133406,"gmtCreate":1620182657605,"gmtModify":1634207156288,"author":{"id":"3581493540228245","authorId":"3581493540228245","name":"Heng83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d79bb76e32848f3d1fbfffd7c6bd2ebb","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581493540228245","idStr":"3581493540228245"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102133406","repostId":"1132504423","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132504423","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620180873,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132504423?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-05 10:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's How Warren Buffett Explained Berkshire Hathaway's Bank Selloff<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特是这样解释伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的银行抛售的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132504423","media":"The motley fool","summary":"Berkshire Hathaway's(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)annual shareholder meeting and its marathon question-and","content":"<p><b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>'s(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)annual shareholder meeting and its marathon question-and-answer session have once again come and gone, offering investors another glimpse into the extraordinary mind of legendary investor Warren Buffett. Some of the questions that came up in Saturday's livestream dealt with moves Berkshire made during the early stages of the pandemic last year -- including what led the company to exit most of its banking positions while loading up on<b>Bank of America</b>(NYSE:BAC). After months of speculation, Buffett gave a little bit of insight into what drove his decision making.</p><p><blockquote><b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BRK.B）年度股东大会及其马拉松式问答环节再次来来去去，让投资者再次一睹传奇投资者沃伦·巴菲特的非凡胸怀。周六直播中出现的一些问题涉及伯克希尔哈撒韦公司在去年疫情早期阶段采取的举措，包括是什么导致该公司退出大部分银行头寸，同时增持<b>美国银行</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BAC）。经过几个月的猜测，巴菲特对推动他决策的因素给出了一些见解。</blockquote></p><p> Too much exposure</p><p><blockquote>曝光过多</blockquote></p><p> Prior to the pandemic, Berkshire owned a slate of bank stocks, and Buffett seemed to have a bullish stance toward the sector. However, as stay-at-home orders and economic shutdowns spread across the country and banks braced for heavy loan losses, Buffett seemed to do a 180 and exited many of his holdings.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情爆发之前，伯克希尔持有一系列银行股，巴菲特似乎对该行业持看涨立场。然而，随着居家令和经济停摆在全国各地蔓延，银行准备迎接严重的贷款损失，巴菲特似乎来了个180度大转弯，退出了他的许多持股。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire eliminated its stake in investment bank<b>Goldman Sachs</b>&nbsp;and eventually<b>JPMorgan Chase</b>, America's largest bank by assets. Berkshire also sold its position in regional banks like<b>PNC Financial Services Group</b>&nbsp;and<b>M&amp;T Bank</b>. And Buffett appears to be looking for an exit on former favorite<b>Wells Fargo</b>, selling shares gradually for the past several quarters.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔减持投资银行股份<b>高盛</b>而最终<b>摩根大通</b>美国资产规模最大的银行。伯克希尔还出售了其在地区性银行的头寸，例如<b>PNC金融服务集团</b>和<b>M&amp;T银行</b>.巴菲特似乎正在寻找退出他以前最喜欢的<b>富国银行</b>，在过去几个季度逐步出售股票。</blockquote></p><p> While all of this was going on, Buffett and Berkshire pumped more than $2 billion of stock into Bank of America and increased the company's stake to 11.9% of outstanding shares, a move that required special regulatory approval.</p><p><blockquote>在这一切发生的同时，巴菲特和伯克希尔向美国银行注入了超过20亿美元的股票，并将该公司的股份增加到已发行股票的11.9%，此举需要监管部门的特别批准。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2da7d6438277757a73f9e626ebc6fc2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p> While we don't yet know what moves Buffett has made in 2021, he doesn't appear to have done much, since the cost basis of Berkshire's bank, insurance, and finance stocks after the first quarter was just slightly higher than it was at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们还不知道巴菲特在2021年采取了哪些举措，但他似乎并没有做太多事情，因为第一季度后伯克希尔银行、保险和金融股的成本基础仅略高于2020年底。</blockquote></p><p> During the Q&amp;A part of Berkshire's shareholder meeting, Buffett was asked why he had sold most of his bank stocks last year.</p><p><blockquote>在伯克希尔股东大会的问答环节，巴菲特被问及为何去年抛售了大部分银行股。</blockquote></p><p> \"I like banks generally, I just didn't like the proportion we had compared to the possible risk if we got the bad results that so far we haven't gotten,\" Buffett said. \"We overall didn't want as much in banks as we had.\"</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特说：“总的来说，我喜欢银行，我只是不喜欢我们与可能的风险相比的比例，如果我们得到迄今为止尚未得到的糟糕结果。”“总体而言，我们对银行的需求并不像现在那么高。”</blockquote></p><p> The Oracle of Omaha added: \"The banking business is way better than it was in the United States 10 or 15 years ago. The banking business around the world -- in various places -- might worry me. But our banks are in far, far better shape than 10 or 15 years ago. But when things froze for a short period of time, the biggest thing the banks had going for them was that the Federal Reserve was behind them, and the Federal Reserve is not behind Berkshire. It's up to us take care of ourselves.\"</p><p><blockquote>这位奥马哈先知补充道：“银行业比10或15年前的美国要好得多。世界各地的银行业——在不同的地方——可能会让我担心。但是我们的银行比10或15年前好得多。但当事情在短时间内冻结时，银行得到的最大好处是美联储支持他们，而美联储并不支持伯克希尔。我们有责任照顾好自己。”</blockquote></p><p> What to make of this</p><p><blockquote>这是怎么回事</blockquote></p><p> Buffett is one of the greatest investing minds of all time, if not No. 1, so it's important to realize that it will be difficult for us to see these moves exactly as he does. And I can certainly appreciate his remark about having too much exposure. Keep in mind, Buffett is managing an equities portfolio of hundreds of billions of dollars, so a few percentage points one way or the other is huge. He needs to think about safety much more than your standard responsible investor (Buffett sometimes refers to himself as Berkshire's \"chief risk officer,\" and he did so again on Saturday). But it really is difficult for me to understand all these moves.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特即使不是第一，也是有史以来最伟大的投资头脑之一，因此重要的是要认识到，我们很难像他那样完全看到这些举动。我当然很欣赏他关于曝光率太高的评论。请记住，巴菲特管理着数千亿美元的股票投资组合，因此无论哪种方式，几个百分点都是巨大的。他比标准的负责任投资者更需要考虑安全问题（巴菲特有时称自己为伯克希尔的“首席风险官”，他在周六再次这样做了）。但是我真的很难理解所有这些动作。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs is not very loan-heavy, so it didn't really face the same degree of risk as other large banks like Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase. Investment banks also tend to do better in periods of volatility, and Goldman is working to build up its consumerbankand asset and wealth management divisions to generate steadier revenues. Goldman's stock is nearly 40% higher than it was prior to the pandemic, and many thinkit's still trading cheap.</p><p><blockquote>高盛的贷款并不多，因此它并没有真正面临与美国银行和摩根大通等其他大型银行相同程度的风险。投资银行在波动时期也往往表现更好，高盛正在努力建立其消费银行以及资产和财富管理部门，以产生更稳定的收入。高盛的股价比疫情爆发前高出近40%，而且许多thinkit的交易价格仍然很便宜。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett's decision to load up on Bank of America and dump JPMorgan as an even bigger mystery to me. JPMorgan not only has a more diversified business, but its earnings power is greater, as well. The bank is also extremely safe. Its reserves for loan losses peaked at $34 billion during 2020, but the bank was prepared for scenarios where its reserves would have peaked at $52 billion. JPMorgan also engineered its way through the Great Recession better than any of the largest banks in America. Buffett officially eliminated Berkshire's stake in JPMorgan in the fourth quarter of the year. Meanwhile, the stock is up nearly 21% year to date at Tuesday's prices, and Buffett likely missed out on even more appreciation, considering he sold the bulk of his JPMorgan position in the third quarter of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特决定买入美国银行并抛弃摩根大通对我来说是一个更大的谜。摩根大通不仅业务更加多元化，而且盈利能力也更强。银行也极其安全。其贷款损失准备金在2020年达到340亿美元的峰值，但该银行已为其准备金达到520亿美元峰值的情况做好了准备。摩根大通也比美国任何一家最大的银行都更好地度过了大衰退。巴菲特在今年第四季度正式消除了伯克希尔在摩根大通的股份。与此同时，按周二的价格计算，该股今年迄今已上涨近21%，考虑到巴菲特在2020年第三季度出售了摩根大通的大部分头寸，他可能会错过更多的升值机会。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Hindsight is, of course, 20/20, but the numbers are also the numbers, and Buffett missed out on huge gains on his former bank holdings that could just be getting started. Banks are potentially poised for a strong multiyear run, with earnings expected to jump in a rising-rate environment. Buffett did say Saturday that he is concerned about \"very substantial inflation,\" so maybe he thinks too much inflation may kill loan demand, or that rising rates might reveal bad credit quality. However, cyclical stocks like banks and financials tend to perform better during inflation than high-growth tech stocks, which Berkshire has recently made abigger part of its portfoliothan financials.</p><p><blockquote>事后看来，当然是20/20，但数字也是数字，巴菲特错过了他以前持有的银行股票可能刚刚开始的巨大收益。银行可能会迎来多年的强劲表现，预计在利率上升的环境下盈利将大幅增长。巴菲特周六确实表示，他担心“非常严重的通胀”，因此他可能认为过多的通胀可能会扼杀贷款需求，或者利率上升可能会暴露出不良的信贷质量。然而，银行和金融股等周期性股票在通胀期间往往比高增长科技股表现更好，伯克希尔最近将高增长科技股纳入其投资组合的比例大于金融股。</blockquote></p><p> Is Buffett done with banking?</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特做完了银行业吗？</blockquote></p><p> Buffett has not abandoned the sector altogether. Bank of America is still Berkshire's second-largest holding behind<b>Apple</b>. Berkshire also still has large positions in<b>American Express</b>,&nbsp;<b>U.S. Bancorp</b>, and<b>Bank of New York Mellon</b>. Buffett also may not be pulling all the strings here -- he's ceded a lot of Berkshire's investing authority to others who may be making the decisions. It has long been known that two of Buffett's lieutenants, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, are much more involved in Berkshire's portfolio decisions now. In addition, Berkshire recently confirmed that Berkshire's Vice Chairman Greg Abel isexpected to succeed Buffettas CEO when he eventually steps aside.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特并没有完全放弃这个行业。美国银行仍是伯克希尔的第二大持股<b>苹果</b>.伯克希尔哈撒韦公司仍持有大量头寸<b>美国运通</b>, <b>美国合众银行</b>，和<b>纽约梅隆银行</b>巴菲特也可能不是这里的幕后黑手——他已经将伯克希尔的很多投资权限让给了其他可能做出决定的人。众所周知，巴菲特的两位副手托德·库姆斯和泰德·韦施勒现在更多地参与了伯克希尔的投资组合决策。此外，伯克希尔最近证实，伯克希尔副董事长格雷格·阿贝尔预计将在巴菲特最终辞职时接替他担任首席执行官。</blockquote></p><p> But with all that has recently happened, it does seem like it could be a while until we see Berkshire buy traditional bank stocks again.</p><p><blockquote>但考虑到最近发生的一切，我们似乎还需要一段时间才能看到伯克希尔再次购买传统银行股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's How Warren Buffett Explained Berkshire Hathaway's Bank Selloff<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特是这样解释伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的银行抛售的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's How Warren Buffett Explained Berkshire Hathaway's Bank Selloff<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特是这样解释伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的银行抛售的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The motley fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-05 10:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>'s(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)annual shareholder meeting and its marathon question-and-answer session have once again come and gone, offering investors another glimpse into the extraordinary mind of legendary investor Warren Buffett. Some of the questions that came up in Saturday's livestream dealt with moves Berkshire made during the early stages of the pandemic last year -- including what led the company to exit most of its banking positions while loading up on<b>Bank of America</b>(NYSE:BAC). After months of speculation, Buffett gave a little bit of insight into what drove his decision making.</p><p><blockquote><b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BRK.B）年度股东大会及其马拉松式问答环节再次来来去去，让投资者再次一睹传奇投资者沃伦·巴菲特的非凡胸怀。周六直播中出现的一些问题涉及伯克希尔哈撒韦公司在去年疫情早期阶段采取的举措，包括是什么导致该公司退出大部分银行头寸，同时增持<b>美国银行</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BAC）。经过几个月的猜测，巴菲特对推动他决策的因素给出了一些见解。</blockquote></p><p> Too much exposure</p><p><blockquote>曝光过多</blockquote></p><p> Prior to the pandemic, Berkshire owned a slate of bank stocks, and Buffett seemed to have a bullish stance toward the sector. However, as stay-at-home orders and economic shutdowns spread across the country and banks braced for heavy loan losses, Buffett seemed to do a 180 and exited many of his holdings.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情爆发之前，伯克希尔持有一系列银行股，巴菲特似乎对该行业持看涨立场。然而，随着居家令和经济停摆在全国各地蔓延，银行准备迎接严重的贷款损失，巴菲特似乎来了个180度大转弯，退出了他的许多持股。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire eliminated its stake in investment bank<b>Goldman Sachs</b>&nbsp;and eventually<b>JPMorgan Chase</b>, America's largest bank by assets. Berkshire also sold its position in regional banks like<b>PNC Financial Services Group</b>&nbsp;and<b>M&amp;T Bank</b>. And Buffett appears to be looking for an exit on former favorite<b>Wells Fargo</b>, selling shares gradually for the past several quarters.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔减持投资银行股份<b>高盛</b>而最终<b>摩根大通</b>美国资产规模最大的银行。伯克希尔还出售了其在地区性银行的头寸，例如<b>PNC金融服务集团</b>和<b>M&amp;T银行</b>.巴菲特似乎正在寻找退出他以前最喜欢的<b>富国银行</b>，在过去几个季度逐步出售股票。</blockquote></p><p> While all of this was going on, Buffett and Berkshire pumped more than $2 billion of stock into Bank of America and increased the company's stake to 11.9% of outstanding shares, a move that required special regulatory approval.</p><p><blockquote>在这一切发生的同时，巴菲特和伯克希尔向美国银行注入了超过20亿美元的股票，并将该公司的股份增加到已发行股票的11.9%，此举需要监管部门的特别批准。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2da7d6438277757a73f9e626ebc6fc2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p> While we don't yet know what moves Buffett has made in 2021, he doesn't appear to have done much, since the cost basis of Berkshire's bank, insurance, and finance stocks after the first quarter was just slightly higher than it was at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们还不知道巴菲特在2021年采取了哪些举措，但他似乎并没有做太多事情，因为第一季度后伯克希尔银行、保险和金融股的成本基础仅略高于2020年底。</blockquote></p><p> During the Q&amp;A part of Berkshire's shareholder meeting, Buffett was asked why he had sold most of his bank stocks last year.</p><p><blockquote>在伯克希尔股东大会的问答环节，巴菲特被问及为何去年抛售了大部分银行股。</blockquote></p><p> \"I like banks generally, I just didn't like the proportion we had compared to the possible risk if we got the bad results that so far we haven't gotten,\" Buffett said. \"We overall didn't want as much in banks as we had.\"</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特说：“总的来说，我喜欢银行，我只是不喜欢我们与可能的风险相比的比例，如果我们得到迄今为止尚未得到的糟糕结果。”“总体而言，我们对银行的需求并不像现在那么高。”</blockquote></p><p> The Oracle of Omaha added: \"The banking business is way better than it was in the United States 10 or 15 years ago. The banking business around the world -- in various places -- might worry me. But our banks are in far, far better shape than 10 or 15 years ago. But when things froze for a short period of time, the biggest thing the banks had going for them was that the Federal Reserve was behind them, and the Federal Reserve is not behind Berkshire. It's up to us take care of ourselves.\"</p><p><blockquote>这位奥马哈先知补充道：“银行业比10或15年前的美国要好得多。世界各地的银行业——在不同的地方——可能会让我担心。但是我们的银行比10或15年前好得多。但当事情在短时间内冻结时，银行得到的最大好处是美联储支持他们，而美联储并不支持伯克希尔。我们有责任照顾好自己。”</blockquote></p><p> What to make of this</p><p><blockquote>这是怎么回事</blockquote></p><p> Buffett is one of the greatest investing minds of all time, if not No. 1, so it's important to realize that it will be difficult for us to see these moves exactly as he does. And I can certainly appreciate his remark about having too much exposure. Keep in mind, Buffett is managing an equities portfolio of hundreds of billions of dollars, so a few percentage points one way or the other is huge. He needs to think about safety much more than your standard responsible investor (Buffett sometimes refers to himself as Berkshire's \"chief risk officer,\" and he did so again on Saturday). But it really is difficult for me to understand all these moves.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特即使不是第一，也是有史以来最伟大的投资头脑之一，因此重要的是要认识到，我们很难像他那样完全看到这些举动。我当然很欣赏他关于曝光率太高的评论。请记住，巴菲特管理着数千亿美元的股票投资组合，因此无论哪种方式，几个百分点都是巨大的。他比标准的负责任投资者更需要考虑安全问题（巴菲特有时称自己为伯克希尔的“首席风险官”，他在周六再次这样做了）。但是我真的很难理解所有这些动作。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs is not very loan-heavy, so it didn't really face the same degree of risk as other large banks like Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase. Investment banks also tend to do better in periods of volatility, and Goldman is working to build up its consumerbankand asset and wealth management divisions to generate steadier revenues. Goldman's stock is nearly 40% higher than it was prior to the pandemic, and many thinkit's still trading cheap.</p><p><blockquote>高盛的贷款并不多，因此它并没有真正面临与美国银行和摩根大通等其他大型银行相同程度的风险。投资银行在波动时期也往往表现更好，高盛正在努力建立其消费银行以及资产和财富管理部门，以产生更稳定的收入。高盛的股价比疫情爆发前高出近40%，而且许多thinkit的交易价格仍然很便宜。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett's decision to load up on Bank of America and dump JPMorgan as an even bigger mystery to me. JPMorgan not only has a more diversified business, but its earnings power is greater, as well. The bank is also extremely safe. Its reserves for loan losses peaked at $34 billion during 2020, but the bank was prepared for scenarios where its reserves would have peaked at $52 billion. JPMorgan also engineered its way through the Great Recession better than any of the largest banks in America. Buffett officially eliminated Berkshire's stake in JPMorgan in the fourth quarter of the year. Meanwhile, the stock is up nearly 21% year to date at Tuesday's prices, and Buffett likely missed out on even more appreciation, considering he sold the bulk of his JPMorgan position in the third quarter of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特决定买入美国银行并抛弃摩根大通对我来说是一个更大的谜。摩根大通不仅业务更加多元化，而且盈利能力也更强。银行也极其安全。其贷款损失准备金在2020年达到340亿美元的峰值，但该银行已为其准备金达到520亿美元峰值的情况做好了准备。摩根大通也比美国任何一家最大的银行都更好地度过了大衰退。巴菲特在今年第四季度正式消除了伯克希尔在摩根大通的股份。与此同时，按周二的价格计算，该股今年迄今已上涨近21%，考虑到巴菲特在2020年第三季度出售了摩根大通的大部分头寸，他可能会错过更多的升值机会。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Hindsight is, of course, 20/20, but the numbers are also the numbers, and Buffett missed out on huge gains on his former bank holdings that could just be getting started. Banks are potentially poised for a strong multiyear run, with earnings expected to jump in a rising-rate environment. Buffett did say Saturday that he is concerned about \"very substantial inflation,\" so maybe he thinks too much inflation may kill loan demand, or that rising rates might reveal bad credit quality. However, cyclical stocks like banks and financials tend to perform better during inflation than high-growth tech stocks, which Berkshire has recently made abigger part of its portfoliothan financials.</p><p><blockquote>事后看来，当然是20/20，但数字也是数字，巴菲特错过了他以前持有的银行股票可能刚刚开始的巨大收益。银行可能会迎来多年的强劲表现，预计在利率上升的环境下盈利将大幅增长。巴菲特周六确实表示，他担心“非常严重的通胀”，因此他可能认为过多的通胀可能会扼杀贷款需求，或者利率上升可能会暴露出不良的信贷质量。然而，银行和金融股等周期性股票在通胀期间往往比高增长科技股表现更好，伯克希尔最近将高增长科技股纳入其投资组合的比例大于金融股。</blockquote></p><p> Is Buffett done with banking?</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特做完了银行业吗？</blockquote></p><p> Buffett has not abandoned the sector altogether. Bank of America is still Berkshire's second-largest holding behind<b>Apple</b>. Berkshire also still has large positions in<b>American Express</b>,&nbsp;<b>U.S. Bancorp</b>, and<b>Bank of New York Mellon</b>. Buffett also may not be pulling all the strings here -- he's ceded a lot of Berkshire's investing authority to others who may be making the decisions. It has long been known that two of Buffett's lieutenants, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, are much more involved in Berkshire's portfolio decisions now. In addition, Berkshire recently confirmed that Berkshire's Vice Chairman Greg Abel isexpected to succeed Buffettas CEO when he eventually steps aside.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特并没有完全放弃这个行业。美国银行仍是伯克希尔的第二大持股<b>苹果</b>.伯克希尔哈撒韦公司仍持有大量头寸<b>美国运通</b>, <b>美国合众银行</b>，和<b>纽约梅隆银行</b>巴菲特也可能不是这里的幕后黑手——他已经将伯克希尔的很多投资权限让给了其他可能做出决定的人。众所周知，巴菲特的两位副手托德·库姆斯和泰德·韦施勒现在更多地参与了伯克希尔的投资组合决策。此外，伯克希尔最近证实，伯克希尔副董事长格雷格·阿贝尔预计将在巴菲特最终辞职时接替他担任首席执行官。</blockquote></p><p> But with all that has recently happened, it does seem like it could be a while until we see Berkshire buy traditional bank stocks again.</p><p><blockquote>但考虑到最近发生的一切，我们似乎还需要一段时间才能看到伯克希尔再次购买传统银行股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/04/heres-how-warren-buffett-explained-berkshire-hatha/\">The motley fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/04/heres-how-warren-buffett-explained-berkshire-hatha/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132504423","content_text":"Berkshire Hathaway's(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)annual shareholder meeting and its marathon question-and-answer session have once again come and gone, offering investors another glimpse into the extraordinary mind of legendary investor Warren Buffett. Some of the questions that came up in Saturday's livestream dealt with moves Berkshire made during the early stages of the pandemic last year -- including what led the company to exit most of its banking positions while loading up onBank of America(NYSE:BAC). After months of speculation, Buffett gave a little bit of insight into what drove his decision making.\nToo much exposure\nPrior to the pandemic, Berkshire owned a slate of bank stocks, and Buffett seemed to have a bullish stance toward the sector. However, as stay-at-home orders and economic shutdowns spread across the country and banks braced for heavy loan losses, Buffett seemed to do a 180 and exited many of his holdings.\nBerkshire eliminated its stake in investment bankGoldman Sachs and eventuallyJPMorgan Chase, America's largest bank by assets. Berkshire also sold its position in regional banks likePNC Financial Services Group andM&T Bank. And Buffett appears to be looking for an exit on former favoriteWells Fargo, selling shares gradually for the past several quarters.\nWhile all of this was going on, Buffett and Berkshire pumped more than $2 billion of stock into Bank of America and increased the company's stake to 11.9% of outstanding shares, a move that required special regulatory approval.\n\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nWhile we don't yet know what moves Buffett has made in 2021, he doesn't appear to have done much, since the cost basis of Berkshire's bank, insurance, and finance stocks after the first quarter was just slightly higher than it was at the end of 2020.\nDuring the Q&A part of Berkshire's shareholder meeting, Buffett was asked why he had sold most of his bank stocks last year.\n\"I like banks generally, I just didn't like the proportion we had compared to the possible risk if we got the bad results that so far we haven't gotten,\" Buffett said. \"We overall didn't want as much in banks as we had.\"\nThe Oracle of Omaha added: \"The banking business is way better than it was in the United States 10 or 15 years ago. The banking business around the world -- in various places -- might worry me. But our banks are in far, far better shape than 10 or 15 years ago. But when things froze for a short period of time, the biggest thing the banks had going for them was that the Federal Reserve was behind them, and the Federal Reserve is not behind Berkshire. It's up to us take care of ourselves.\"\nWhat to make of this\nBuffett is one of the greatest investing minds of all time, if not No. 1, so it's important to realize that it will be difficult for us to see these moves exactly as he does. And I can certainly appreciate his remark about having too much exposure. Keep in mind, Buffett is managing an equities portfolio of hundreds of billions of dollars, so a few percentage points one way or the other is huge. He needs to think about safety much more than your standard responsible investor (Buffett sometimes refers to himself as Berkshire's \"chief risk officer,\" and he did so again on Saturday). But it really is difficult for me to understand all these moves.\nGoldman Sachs is not very loan-heavy, so it didn't really face the same degree of risk as other large banks like Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase. Investment banks also tend to do better in periods of volatility, and Goldman is working to build up its consumerbankand asset and wealth management divisions to generate steadier revenues. Goldman's stock is nearly 40% higher than it was prior to the pandemic, and many thinkit's still trading cheap.\nBuffett's decision to load up on Bank of America and dump JPMorgan as an even bigger mystery to me. JPMorgan not only has a more diversified business, but its earnings power is greater, as well. The bank is also extremely safe. Its reserves for loan losses peaked at $34 billion during 2020, but the bank was prepared for scenarios where its reserves would have peaked at $52 billion. JPMorgan also engineered its way through the Great Recession better than any of the largest banks in America. Buffett officially eliminated Berkshire's stake in JPMorgan in the fourth quarter of the year. Meanwhile, the stock is up nearly 21% year to date at Tuesday's prices, and Buffett likely missed out on even more appreciation, considering he sold the bulk of his JPMorgan position in the third quarter of 2020.\nHindsight is, of course, 20/20, but the numbers are also the numbers, and Buffett missed out on huge gains on his former bank holdings that could just be getting started. Banks are potentially poised for a strong multiyear run, with earnings expected to jump in a rising-rate environment. Buffett did say Saturday that he is concerned about \"very substantial inflation,\" so maybe he thinks too much inflation may kill loan demand, or that rising rates might reveal bad credit quality. However, cyclical stocks like banks and financials tend to perform better during inflation than high-growth tech stocks, which Berkshire has recently made abigger part of its portfoliothan financials.\nIs Buffett done with banking?\nBuffett has not abandoned the sector altogether. Bank of America is still Berkshire's second-largest holding behindApple. Berkshire also still has large positions inAmerican Express, U.S. Bancorp, andBank of New York Mellon. Buffett also may not be pulling all the strings here -- he's ceded a lot of Berkshire's investing authority to others who may be making the decisions. It has long been known that two of Buffett's lieutenants, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, are much more involved in Berkshire's portfolio decisions now. In addition, Berkshire recently confirmed that Berkshire's Vice Chairman Greg Abel isexpected to succeed Buffettas CEO when he eventually steps aside.\nBut with all that has recently happened, it does seem like it could be a while until we see Berkshire buy traditional bank stocks again.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106261369,"gmtCreate":1620125029251,"gmtModify":1634207642484,"author":{"id":"3581493540228245","authorId":"3581493540228245","name":"Heng83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d79bb76e32848f3d1fbfffd7c6bd2ebb","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581493540228245","idStr":"3581493540228245"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please help to comment and like!","listText":"Please help to comment and like!","text":"Please help to comment and like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106261369","repostId":"1167630680","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108248159,"gmtCreate":1620034338071,"gmtModify":1634208364873,"author":{"id":"3581493540228245","authorId":"3581493540228245","name":"Heng83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d79bb76e32848f3d1fbfffd7c6bd2ebb","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581493540228245","idStr":"3581493540228245"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108248159","repostId":"1174121512","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103170447,"gmtCreate":1619760814889,"gmtModify":1634210103343,"author":{"id":"3581493540228245","authorId":"3581493540228245","name":"Heng83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d79bb76e32848f3d1fbfffd7c6bd2ebb","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581493540228245","idStr":"3581493540228245"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103170447","repostId":"1153490597","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}