voga的个人主页 - 老虎社区

voga

voga

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IP属地：湖南

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19粉丝

4主题

0勋章

2021-05-12

四点醒来，看到美股股指反弹。其中纳斯达克反弹较猛。收盘前做多走起。看好今天这个交易日，纳指继续上攻。

2021-05-07

$恒生指数2105(HSI2105)$ 恒指看多，看涨

2021-05-07

$日经指数2106(NK2106)$ 看多，看涨，目标29500 and 29500+

2021-05-07

任天堂，那个年代的童年

任天堂2021年度财报发布营业利润大幅增长

2021-05-06

$黄铜2107(HG2107)$ 做多，涨起

2021-05-04

$恒生指数2105(HSI2105)$ 看涨，耐心持有目标340 400止损170

2021-04-30

美股总有无数猛票

2021-04-29

这么涨，真的猛

2021-04-25

时常回顾凯利公式，我们有没在用。开赛一个月，重仓居多，回撤很大。周末时间好好重读凯利公式。

@复兴计划:巴菲特久赌必赢的公式：凯利公式

2021-04-23

日内多空拉锯关键点位，17280不破此点位，可以继续看多仅个人看法

2021-04-23

日内多空拉锯点位，28962不破此位置可以继续看多。仅个人观点

2021-04-22

实盘赛，九月底结束。看看能拿什么成绩出来。

2021-04-05

$黄铜2105(HG2105)$ 大涨的铜

2021-03-27

$知乎(ZH)$2000美金打新，中了不到50美金，亏损4美金。打新好像没啥干劲。

2021-03-25

打新啦，知乎

2021-03-16

打新走起，走起，走起

2021-03-10

$小原油2104(QM2104)$ 看多

2021-03-01

$WTI原油2104(CL2104)$ 看多看多

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恒指看多，看涨","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80649eaffb61986e3b304aa175285165","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104958815","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3577587973708044","authorId":"3577587973708044","name":"voga","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d85f098b8ae50ae7e2e2dff8fcf9e67a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"多头形态","text":"多头形态","html":"多头形态"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":104047514,"gmtCreate":1620347471538,"gmtModify":1620347471538,"author":{"id":"3577587973708044","authorId":"3577587973708044","name":"voga","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d85f098b8ae50ae7e2e2dff8fcf9e67a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NK2106\">$日经指数2106(NK2106)$ &nbsp;</a>看多，看涨，目标29500 and 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29500+","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27fdaa08c720a730ae1793604972ca3","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104047514","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2075,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3577587973708044","authorId":"3577587973708044","name":"voga","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d85f098b8ae50ae7e2e2dff8fcf9e67a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"向下假突破而后向上进攻，看好大涨的形态","text":"向下假突破而后向上进攻，看好大涨的形态","html":"向下假突破而后向上进攻，看好大涨的形态"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":104039037,"gmtCreate":1620344465729,"gmtModify":1620344465729,"author":{"id":"3577587973708044","authorId":"3577587973708044","name":"voga","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d85f098b8ae50ae7e2e2dff8fcf9e67a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"任天堂，那个年代的童年","listText":"任天堂，那个年代的童年","text":"任天堂，那个年代的童年","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104039037","repostId":"2133576992","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2133576992","pubTimestamp":1620336660,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2133576992?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 05:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"任天堂2021年度财报发布 营业利润大幅增长","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2133576992","media":"超超","summary":"　　5月6日，任天堂发布了最新一期2021年3月期财报，全面总结了2020年4月1日～2021年3月31日财年经营状态，不论营业收入还是经常利润都大幅增长。　　据最新一期2021年3月期财报显示，2021年度总销售收入为17589亿日元，比起2020年度总销...","content":"<html><body><div>\n<div itemprop=\"articleBody\">\n<img src=\"https://article-fd.zol-img.com.cn/t_s640x2000/g6/M00/01/08/ChMkKWCTtx6IWlkoAAD7L7JZvLMAAOYWQNTHcEAAPtH559.jpg\"/><div>\n<div><div></div></div>\n</div>\n<p>　　5月6日，任天堂发布了最新一期2021年3月期财报，全面总结了2020年4月1日～2021年3月31日财年经营状态，不论营业收入还是经常利润都大幅增长。</p><p>　　据最新一期2021年3月期财报显示，2021年度（2020年4月1日～2021年3月31日）总销售收入为17589亿日元，比起2020年度总销售收入13085亿日元增长34.4%，总营业利润为6406亿日元，比起上年度的3523亿日元增长81.8%，而当期纯利润也增长高达85.7%。</p><p><span></span><img height=\"290\" src=\"https://article-fd.zol-img.com.cn/t_s640x2000/g6/M00/01/08/ChMkKWCTtx6IWlkoAAD7L7JZvLMAAOYWQNTHcEAAPtH559.jpg\" width=\"640\"/></p><p>　　本次还公开了任天堂自社已经确定产品发布线：5月21日上市Lite新色“蓝色”，4月30日发售《宝可梦 随乐拍 》；5月21日发售《Miitopia》，6月11日发售《游戏编程》，6月25日发售《马里奥高尔夫 Super Rush》。</p><p><img height=\"346\" src=\"https://article-fd.zol-img.com.cn/t_s640x2000/g6/M00/01/08/ChMkKmCTtx6IQCydAAIfhirBsBoAAOYWQNUGQgAAh-e188.jpg\" width=\"640\"/></p><p>本文属于原创文章，如若转载，请注明来源：任天堂2021年度财报发布 营业利润大幅增长https://nb.zol.com.cn/767/7677549.html</p><div zpv-events-inview=\"article-cont-bottom-viewport\"></div>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li><img height=\"245\" src=\"https://dg-fd.zol-img.com.cn/t_s2000x2000/g6/M00/0B/04/ChMkKmARHpeIDmP7AACzO3gPNxkAAI_PgG7XiQAALNT346.jpg\" width=\"310\"/></li><li><img height=\"120\" src=\"https://dg-fd.zol-img.com.cn/t_s2000x2000/g6/M00/0B/04/ChMkKmARH4KICVugAABL6mLnMuUAAI_PwN2wj0AAEwC833.jpg\" width=\"160\"/></li><li><img height=\"120\" src=\"https://dg-fd.zol-img.com.cn/t_s2000x2000/g2/M00/06/0D/ChMlWV7DUqGIEd4KAABSddzqzb8AAPQewBNvBIAAFKN718.jpg\" width=\"160\"/></li><li><img height=\"120\" src=\"https://dg-fd.zol-img.com.cn/t_s2000x2000/g2/M00/00/0A/ChMlWl6yFS6ISPeRAABE3b1wTUQAAO30wCU8tkAAET1631.jpg\" width=\"160\"/></li><li><img height=\"120\" src=\"https://dg-fd.zol-img.com.cn/t_s2000x2000/g2/M00/00/0A/ChMlWl6yFNSIDy5FAABY1BMw0loAAO30gFvVi8AAFjs005.jpg\" width=\"160\"/></li><li><img height=\"100\" src=\"https://dg-fd.zol-img.com.cn/t_s2000x2000/g6/M00/04/05/ChMkKmAfh1iIV3AtAAEwe7C4uDsAAJjoAEpWccAATCT092.jpg\" width=\"640\"/></li>\n</ul></div>\n<div>\n<span itemprop=\"url\">https://nb.zol.com.cn/767/7677549.html</span>\n<span itemprop=\"indexUrl\">nb.zol.com.cn</span>\n<span itemprop=\"isOriginal\">true</span>\n<span itemprop=\"author\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000931\">中关村</a>在线</span>\n<span itemprop=\"isBasedOnUrl\">https://nb.zol.com.cn/767/7677549.html</span>\n<span itemprop=\"genre\">report</span>\n<span itemprop=\"wordCount\">561</span>\n<span itemprop=\"description\">　　5月6日，任天堂发布了最新一期2021年3月期财报，全面总结了2020年4月1日～2021年3月31日财年经营状态，不论营业收入还是经常利润都大幅增长。　　据最新一期2021年3月期财报显示，2021年度（2020年4月1日～2021年3月31日）总销售收入为17589亿日元，比起2020年度总销...</span>\n</div></div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"zol_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>任天堂2021年度财报发布 营业利润大幅增长</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n任天堂2021年度财报发布 营业利润大幅增长\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-07 05:31 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://nb.zol.com.cn/767/7677549.html><strong>超超</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5月6日，任天堂发布了最新一期2021年3月期财报，全面总结了2020年4月1日～2021年3月31日财年经营状态，不论营业收入还是经常利润都大幅增长。　　据最新一期2021年3月期财报显示，2021年度（2020年4月1日～2021年3月31日）总销售收入为17589亿日元，比起2020年度总销售收入13085亿日元增长34.4%，总营业利润为6406亿日元，比起上年度的3523亿日元增长...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://nb.zol.com.cn/767/7677549.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0ab8365ea89ee143187cbf51d23ba8f","relate_stocks":{"NTDOY":"任天堂"},"source_url":"http://nb.zol.com.cn/767/7677549.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2133576992","content_text":"5月6日，任天堂发布了最新一期2021年3月期财报，全面总结了2020年4月1日～2021年3月31日财年经营状态，不论营业收入还是经常利润都大幅增长。　　据最新一期2021年3月期财报显示，2021年度（2020年4月1日～2021年3月31日）总销售收入为17589亿日元，比起2020年度总销售收入13085亿日元增长34.4%，总营业利润为6406亿日元，比起上年度的3523亿日元增长81.8%，而当期纯利润也增长高达85.7%。　　本次还公开了任天堂自社已经确定产品发布线：5月21日上市Lite新色“蓝色”，4月30日发售《宝可梦 随乐拍 》；5月21日发售《Miitopia》，6月11日发售《游戏编程》，6月25日发售《马里奥高尔夫 Super Rush》。本文属于原创文章，如若转载，请注明来源：任天堂2021年度财报发布 营业利润大幅增长https://nb.zol.com.cn/767/7677549.html\n\n\n\n\n\nhttps://nb.zol.com.cn/767/7677549.html\nnb.zol.com.cn\ntrue\n中关村在线\nhttps://nb.zol.com.cn/767/7677549.html\nreport\n561\n　　5月6日，任天堂发布了最新一期2021年3月期财报，全面总结了2020年4月1日～2021年3月31日财年经营状态，不论营业收入还是经常利润都大幅增长。　　据最新一期2021年3月期财报显示，2021年度（2020年4月1日～2021年3月31日）总销售收入为17589亿日元，比起2020年度总销...","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":105809550,"gmtCreate":1620284652470,"gmtModify":1620284652470,"author":{"id":"3577587973708044","authorId":"3577587973708044","name":"voga","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d85f098b8ae50ae7e2e2dff8fcf9e67a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HG2107\">$黄铜2107(HG2107)$ &nbsp;</a>做多，涨起","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HG2107\">$黄铜2107(HG2107)$ &nbsp;</a>做多，涨起","text":"$黄铜2107(HG2107)$ 做多，涨起","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dee8fe717d52255c3f010529dedb07","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/105809550","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":106157013,"gmtCreate":1620096022132,"gmtModify":1620096022132,"author":{"id":"3577587973708044","authorId":"3577587973708044","name":"voga","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d85f098b8ae50ae7e2e2dff8fcf9e67a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HSI2105\">$恒生指数2105(HSI2105)$ &nbsp;</a>看涨，耐心持有目标340 400止损170","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HSI2105\">$恒生指数2105(HSI2105)$ &nbsp;</a>看涨，耐心持有目标340 400止损170","text":"$恒生指数2105(HSI2105)$ 看涨，耐心持有目标340 400止损170","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e480957874a4605ca51ad05cfdf7c520","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106157013","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2095,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":109751185,"gmtCreate":1619734951147,"gmtModify":1619734951147,"author":{"id":"3577587973708044","authorId":"3577587973708044","name":"voga","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d85f098b8ae50ae7e2e2dff8fcf9e67a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美股总有无数猛票","listText":"美股总有无数猛票","text":"美股总有无数猛票","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea3f02e073086c883bc1ab740f3c1f2b","width":"1080","height":"1892"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/109751185","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":109413568,"gmtCreate":1619709131454,"gmtModify":1619709131454,"author":{"id":"3577587973708044","authorId":"3577587973708044","name":"voga","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d85f098b8ae50ae7e2e2dff8fcf9e67a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这么涨，真的猛","listText":"这么涨，真的猛","text":"这么涨，真的猛","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c4d6d9ff7c6d142ac72d2fef27e63c2","width":"1080","height":"1801"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/109413568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1726,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":375360661,"gmtCreate":1619309561753,"gmtModify":1619309561753,"author":{"id":"3577587973708044","authorId":"3577587973708044","name":"voga","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d85f098b8ae50ae7e2e2dff8fcf9e67a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"时常回顾凯利公式，我们有没在用。开赛一个月，重仓居多，回撤很大。周末时间好好重读凯利公式。","listText":"时常回顾凯利公式，我们有没在用。开赛一个月，重仓居多，回撤很大。周末时间好好重读凯利公式。","text":"时常回顾凯利公式，我们有没在用。开赛一个月，重仓居多，回撤很大。周末时间好好重读凯利公式。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375360661","repostId":"999939987","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":999939987,"gmtCreate":1562924252848,"gmtModify":1704704576089,"author":{"id":"3479156248791467","authorId":"3479156248791467","name":"复兴计划","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c10d2ba3aa6d31cda64398d07bf813cb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"巴菲特久赌必赢的公式：凯利公式","htmlText":"如果说要从投资界找出一条最速曲线的话，那也就“凯利公式”莫属了。很多人都喜欢研究凯利公式，一是它的实用性，二是它的名气。 文章转载自公众号“三位一体股市赢家” 基本都懂，凯利公式是研究胜率赔率以及仓位（也就是下注金额）的关系。凯利公式：f=(bp-q)b (p是胜率 q是败率 b是赔率)， 如果单说高胜率，高赔率。那肯定两者双高是最好的结果。可是，往往这高并不太可能同时存在。熊掌和鱼不可兼得。 一般来说，喜欢孤注一掷的，无形中高赔率；喜欢积小成多的，选择无形中选择高胜率。 举个例子。 胜率90% 赔率1胜率50% 赔率4胜率10% 赔率50 胜率90% 赔率1 f=(1*0.9-0.1)/1=0.8 胜率50% 赔率4 f=(4*0.5-0.5)/4=0.375 胜率10% 赔率50 f=(50*0.1-0.9)/50=0.082 这是假设胜率赔率情况下的最佳下注比例。 很明显，如果都严格采用凯利公式仓位下注的话，假设胜负结果都一样的话，次数越多，胜率高的结果就越比胜率低的结果优秀。 放在股市里，换句话说，理论上，做短线的人，往往摆脱不了均值回归。 不过，在股市里，值得注意的地方，概率并不是孤立存在。也就是说，一副牌抽出去又放回来，再抽的概率是一样的。而股市里，并不是独立存在的。比如今天的上涨下跌就很可能和昨天的上涨或者下跌有关，也有可能跟消息面有关。就造成了一系列的变动。也就是所谓的“肥尾效应”。 什么是肥尾效应。是指极端行情发生的机率增加，可能因为发生一些不寻常的事件造成市场上大震荡。翻译过来也就是，从长期看，小概率的事件肯定会是必然发生的。 所以往往我们在实际操作行为当中，总以为小概率事件跟我们没有关系。但老股民都知道，时间越长，小概率碰到的就越多。诸如突然停牌，诸如个股类的黑天鹅等等。一旦遇到这种，如果仓位不对，将会产生很大的回撤。 因此，凯利公式还给我们一个启","listText":"如果说要从投资界找出一条最速曲线的话，那也就“凯利公式”莫属了。很多人都喜欢研究凯利公式，一是它的实用性，二是它的名气。 文章转载自公众号“三位一体股市赢家” 基本都懂，凯利公式是研究胜率赔率以及仓位（也就是下注金额）的关系。凯利公式：f=(bp-q)b (p是胜率 q是败率 b是赔率)， 如果单说高胜率，高赔率。那肯定两者双高是最好的结果。可是，往往这高并不太可能同时存在。熊掌和鱼不可兼得。 一般来说，喜欢孤注一掷的，无形中高赔率；喜欢积小成多的，选择无形中选择高胜率。 举个例子。 胜率90% 赔率1胜率50% 赔率4胜率10% 赔率50 胜率90% 赔率1 f=(1*0.9-0.1)/1=0.8 胜率50% 赔率4 f=(4*0.5-0.5)/4=0.375 胜率10% 赔率50 f=(50*0.1-0.9)/50=0.082 这是假设胜率赔率情况下的最佳下注比例。 很明显，如果都严格采用凯利公式仓位下注的话，假设胜负结果都一样的话，次数越多，胜率高的结果就越比胜率低的结果优秀。 放在股市里，换句话说，理论上，做短线的人，往往摆脱不了均值回归。 不过，在股市里，值得注意的地方，概率并不是孤立存在。也就是说，一副牌抽出去又放回来，再抽的概率是一样的。而股市里，并不是独立存在的。比如今天的上涨下跌就很可能和昨天的上涨或者下跌有关，也有可能跟消息面有关。就造成了一系列的变动。也就是所谓的“肥尾效应”。 什么是肥尾效应。是指极端行情发生的机率增加，可能因为发生一些不寻常的事件造成市场上大震荡。翻译过来也就是，从长期看，小概率的事件肯定会是必然发生的。 所以往往我们在实际操作行为当中，总以为小概率事件跟我们没有关系。但老股民都知道，时间越长，小概率碰到的就越多。诸如突然停牌，诸如个股类的黑天鹅等等。一旦遇到这种，如果仓位不对，将会产生很大的回撤。 因此，凯利公式还给我们一个启","text":"如果说要从投资界找出一条最速曲线的话，那也就“凯利公式”莫属了。很多人都喜欢研究凯利公式，一是它的实用性，二是它的名气。 文章转载自公众号“三位一体股市赢家” 基本都懂，凯利公式是研究胜率赔率以及仓位（也就是下注金额）的关系。凯利公式：f=(bp-q)b (p是胜率 q是败率 b是赔率)， 如果单说高胜率，高赔率。那肯定两者双高是最好的结果。可是，往往这高并不太可能同时存在。熊掌和鱼不可兼得。 一般来说，喜欢孤注一掷的，无形中高赔率；喜欢积小成多的，选择无形中选择高胜率。 举个例子。 胜率90% 赔率1胜率50% 赔率4胜率10% 赔率50 胜率90% 赔率1 f=(1*0.9-0.1)/1=0.8 胜率50% 赔率4 f=(4*0.5-0.5)/4=0.375 胜率10% 赔率50 f=(50*0.1-0.9)/50=0.082 这是假设胜率赔率情况下的最佳下注比例。 很明显，如果都严格采用凯利公式仓位下注的话，假设胜负结果都一样的话，次数越多，胜率高的结果就越比胜率低的结果优秀。 放在股市里，换句话说，理论上，做短线的人，往往摆脱不了均值回归。 不过，在股市里，值得注意的地方，概率并不是孤立存在。也就是说，一副牌抽出去又放回来，再抽的概率是一样的。而股市里，并不是独立存在的。比如今天的上涨下跌就很可能和昨天的上涨或者下跌有关，也有可能跟消息面有关。就造成了一系列的变动。也就是所谓的“肥尾效应”。 什么是肥尾效应。是指极端行情发生的机率增加，可能因为发生一些不寻常的事件造成市场上大震荡。翻译过来也就是，从长期看，小概率的事件肯定会是必然发生的。 所以往往我们在实际操作行为当中，总以为小概率事件跟我们没有关系。但老股民都知道，时间越长，小概率碰到的就越多。诸如突然停牌，诸如个股类的黑天鹅等等。一旦遇到这种，如果仓位不对，将会产生很大的回撤。 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文章转载自公众号“三位一体股市赢家” 基本都懂，凯利公式是研究胜率赔率以及仓位（也就是下注金额）的关系。凯利公式：f=(bp-q)b (p是胜率 q是败率 b是赔率)， 如果单说高胜率，高赔率。那肯定两者双高是最好的结果。可是，往往这高并不太可能同时存在。熊掌和鱼不可兼得。 一般来说，喜欢孤注一掷的，无形中高赔率；喜欢积小成多的，选择无形中选择高胜率。 举个例子。 胜率90% 赔率1胜率50% 赔率4胜率10% 赔率50 胜率90% 赔率1 f=(1*0.9-0.1)/1=0.8 胜率50% 赔率4 f=(4*0.5-0.5)/4=0.375 胜率10% 赔率50 f=(50*0.1-0.9)/50=0.082 这是假设胜率赔率情况下的最佳下注比例。 很明显，如果都严格采用凯利公式仓位下注的话，假设胜负结果都一样的话，次数越多，胜率高的结果就越比胜率低的结果优秀。 放在股市里，换句话说，理论上，做短线的人，往往摆脱不了均值回归。 不过，在股市里，值得注意的地方，概率并不是孤立存在。也就是说，一副牌抽出去又放回来，再抽的概率是一样的。而股市里，并不是独立存在的。比如今天的上涨下跌就很可能和昨天的上涨或者下跌有关，也有可能跟消息面有关。就造成了一系列的变动。也就是所谓的“肥尾效应”。 什么是肥尾效应。是指极端行情发生的机率增加，可能因为发生一些不寻常的事件造成市场上大震荡。翻译过来也就是，从长期看，小概率的事件肯定会是必然发生的。 所以往往我们在实际操作行为当中，总以为小概率事件跟我们没有关系。但老股民都知道，时间越长，小概率碰到的就越多。诸如突然停牌，诸如个股类的黑天鹅等等。一旦遇到这种，如果仓位不对，将会产生很大的回撤。 因此，凯利公式还给我们一个启","listText":"如果说要从投资界找出一条最速曲线的话，那也就“凯利公式”莫属了。很多人都喜欢研究凯利公式，一是它的实用性，二是它的名气。 文章转载自公众号“三位一体股市赢家” 基本都懂，凯利公式是研究胜率赔率以及仓位（也就是下注金额）的关系。凯利公式：f=(bp-q)b (p是胜率 q是败率 b是赔率)， 如果单说高胜率，高赔率。那肯定两者双高是最好的结果。可是，往往这高并不太可能同时存在。熊掌和鱼不可兼得。 一般来说，喜欢孤注一掷的，无形中高赔率；喜欢积小成多的，选择无形中选择高胜率。 举个例子。 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