Johnsonk的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Johnsonk

Johnsonk

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01-06 17:01

靠你急成这样，就知道特斯拉要起飞了

01-06 16:58

觉得自己很牛，相信自己的判断就卖房做空，哪里来的那么多废话

01-05 17:29

给你整笑了

湖南Robotruck海外出圈：L4还能这么玩？领先特斯拉太多！

2025-12-17

亏钱亏急眼了

2025-12-16

正视技术优势，自我麻痹是没有用的

2025-12-15

说点你听得懂的真话，你又急了

特斯拉急了？发文内涵国内友商称只会一味堆大电池续航还不行

2025-12-15

再怎么黑也阻挡不了时代的车轮

特斯拉FSD实测：驾驶体验提升，但完全自动驾驶仍非一蹴而就

2025-12-15

Replying to @WenNuan:一个做多英特尔的可怜投资者//@WenNuan:做梦，全是泡沫

2025-12-12

搞了半天就是为了达到别人一年前的水平？一年后别人早就把你远远甩开

何小鹏“亮剑”马斯克，若失败，负责人将在金门大桥“裸跑”

2025-12-11

不要脸就是无敌

特斯拉落后五年还嘴硬？马斯克称Waymo没胜算被“打脸”

2025-12-04

狗又亏急眼了，出来乱吠

2025-12-04

走吧，你没这个发财命

2025-12-03

只能穿越一天么？能不能穿越到明年8月

2025-12-03

实在太完美，没有东西可以喷了，只能喷下限速

特斯拉FSD v14.2.1速遭用户吐槽：档位落差大、限速僵化

2025-12-03

你可以做空试试

2025-12-02

狗不牵绳乱吠必然会被抓走

2025-12-02

又来送钱了

Burry据报道已做空特斯拉 “荒谬”的估值和马斯克的薪酬计划乃原因所在

2025-12-02

当初被埋，一点教训不吸取

“大空头”开火：特斯拉估值高得离谱，马斯克天价薪酬稀释股票

2025-11-12

王朗也不太喜欢诸葛亮的品行

段永平回应为何不买特斯拉股票：不喜欢马斯克品行

2025-11-12

不看看自己是什么品行，还有，不男不女的狗又出来叫了

段永平回应为何不买特斯拉股票：不喜欢马斯克品行

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600031\">三一重工</a></strong>。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105160849536v206kcvgpxfwlls\"/><p>在重卡市场上一鸣惊人不奇怪，毕竟重工到重卡某种程度是降维打击。</p><p>但从传统制造业巨头一跃成为AI、自动驾驶圈明星，这个转身太突然也太不可思议。</p><p>怎么做到的？</p><p><strong>三一拿出了什么样的L4方案</strong></p><p>让海外直呼“妙哉”的L4卡车落地方案，国内尤其是智能车参考的读者老爷一点都不陌生：</p><p><strong>L4编队</strong>模式。</p><p>整个车队都是三一重卡，但<strong>头车是一辆L2卡车</strong>（当然也可以是L4），配备一位人类驾驶员，车队后续尾随的，全部都是完全无人的L4卡车。</p><p>头车作用，除了满足各地区普遍的法规，最重要的职责是解决L4运营中的“断点恢复”问题，包括辅助装卸货、应对临时停车检查等等自动驾驶系统能力之外的流程性任务。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105160906861v20657c7rccv2wa\"/><p>车队之间采用V2V实现通信，常规路况下执行跟随策略，需要超车、绕行的场景，车队会遵从头车指示。</p><p>但头车并不具备后车的操作权限，接到指令后，后车的感知、规划和具体执行，都由L4自动驾驶系统完成。</p><p>法规层面和实际运营中，纯无人的自动驾驶卡车往往被局限在矿场、港口等等封闭区域内，投放规模和营收增长都受到极大限制。</p><p><strong>编队模式的第一个优势，就是通过“头车有人”彻底打破地理围栏限制</strong>。</p><p>经济上，三一打造的编队可以“1拖N”，如果是“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601038\">一拖</a>四”模式，首先至少能节约80%的人工费用。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105160909388v206f9s0toz30y2\"/><p>编队行驶中，头车尾部会还产生一个低压区，阻力大幅减少，跟随车辆能够显著节省能耗，行业普遍实测节能10%左右。</p><p>再加上自动驾驶带来的货物运损、事故率及保险费用等等下降，官方给出的数据是<strong>每公里货运成本降低29%、车队运营利润提升高达195%</strong>。</p><p>货运物流行业亘古不变，决定一切矛盾、供需关系的根本出发只有一条：<strong>成本</strong>，限制条件和额外影响因素远少于Robotaxi。</p><p>这也是<strong>编队模式的最大优势：相比只能减人不能去人的L2卡车，降本增效立竿见影</strong>。</p><p>这也是让海外惊叹“没想到”的核心：三一用L4编队打了一个双向“剪刀差”，相比纯无人场景不受限，相比L2卡车成本大幅降低——扫清了L4卡车的落地障碍。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/7fokiaaibkadJY5NrKfbupQm6nm9o2aKCoWt0nnFV8k0b7IEA9Wt32BRczJj0b8zJicwO3veVIUbI3eWxSAHmSRHw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p>包括特斯拉、Waymo，以前高光过又倒掉的北美自动驾驶卡车玩家等等在内，却无一尝试。</p><p>况且，北美路况其实更加适合编队模式。</p><p>海外智能车媒体Electrek发出了这样的感叹：</p><p><strong>三一落地的Robotruck编队模式，的确也不是完全无人驾驶，但又比特斯拉FSD明显领先</strong>，至少现在的FSD还必须要求驾驶员随时接管。</p><p>Robotruck本身AI司机的核心算法能力，以及前装量产的工程化能力，这两点放在如今任何自动驾驶玩家，甚至是头部玩家身上都是稀缺且关键的核心竞争力。</p><p>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00631\">三一重工</a>这个传统工程机械巨头身上更加令人惊奇。</p><p>毕竟一直以来三一活跃在大家面前的形象，都是起重机、混凝土机械、挖掘机等等：</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105160932093v2069kttw7s01f4\"/><p>就算切入重卡赛道，依然是以传统柴油产品为主，主打性价比出圈，新能源重卡也是前几年起步。</p><p>短短时间内，就具备L4全栈研发、运营能力，甚至参透了Robotruck落地模式“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01520\">天机</a>”，三一背后难道另有“高人”？</p><p><strong>三一出圈，谁的内功？</strong></p><p>其实这张图片已经能看出端倪：</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/7fokiaaibkadJY5NrKfbupQm6nm9o2aKConddUIeia44mwmnicrmq1cXNOic5QD1vPuSQQJtqUjicxMqu8k72Lmdg4Cg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p>三一自动驾驶重卡车厢上印着自动驾驶圈再熟悉不过的名字：<strong>PONY</strong>——<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PONY\">小马智行</a></strong>。</p><p>L4编队模式模式落地的车，其实也是小马智行前不久刚刚亮相过的<strong>第四代自动驾驶卡车</strong>：</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105160954324v206285y138cig7\"/><p>重卡车头本体是小马智行和三一重卡合作的前装量产产品，L4及编队算法是小马智行最新自动驾驶全栈技术体系。</p><p>软件上早就从传统L4阵营的模块化、规则化体系，进化到了基于强化学习范式的世界模型：<strong>PonyWorld</strong>。</p><p>三大核心能力：生成场景和传感器数据、高度逼真的仿真以及驾驶行为的多维度评估；能够让AI司机学习驾驶意图和决策，逐步建立对复杂驾驶情境的理解和应对能力，也就是让模型从端到端简单的模仿学习，到理解输出轨迹和场景动态之间的因果关</p><p>而这也是小马智行通用AI司机的基座，同时也为Robotaxi提供核心能力。</p><p><strong>复用和互通</strong>布置停留在软件算法层间，硬件方案，包括的自研域控、传感器、冗余等等，同样和小马智行第七代Robotaxi高度复用。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105161001463v206w19vxqbuzez\"/><p>也就是说，在全车4-6个激光雷达的条件下，自动驾驶套件BOM成本仍然比前代降低约70%——<strong>编队解决落地运营的模式问题，和Robotaxi复用的L4软硬件则解决了单车成本问题</strong>。</p><p>2026年，小马智行给出的预估是四代自动驾驶重卡很快就能投产，并达到1000辆落地规模。</p><p>根据小马智行的第三季度财报，<strong>Robotruck业务收入7250万元人民币，而三季度总营收为1.81亿人民币</strong>，Robotruck占总营收超过1/3，而这还仅仅是四代车没落地的数据。</p><p>所以，2026不光是Robotaxi落地盈利的元年，同样也是自动驾驶“第二战场”L4卡车的商业化元年。</p><p>而对于小马智行来说，两条腿的“加速度”，可能比以往任何时候都快。</p><p><strong>海外自动驾驶卡车，牌桌上还剩谁？</strong></p><p>北美一只手就能数的过来，首先是马斯克的<strong>特斯拉SemiTruck</strong>：</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105161005541v206cefb2g40572\"/><p>特斯拉存在多久，SemiTruck项目的历史就有多久，只不过特斯拉在卡车项目上，比跑车、皮卡等等都更加忠实马斯克“延期兑现”的习惯：截止2025年，SemiTruck交付量将将过百。</p><p>至于卡车的自动驾驶系统，还是FSD的非公开的专用测试阶段。</p><p>特斯拉自动驾驶卡车推进节奏相比乘用车慢的不是一星半点，其实也可以理解，一方面主观因素上，分散马斯克精力的事实在太多了……同时特斯拉乘用车销售基本盘又面临严峻挑战，比如纯电销冠也刚刚败给了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>。</p><p>客观因素上，北美推自动驾驶卡车，要面临着强大的卡车司机行会组织。</p><p>很有可能，老马承诺的2026年SemiTruck年产5万辆开启大规模交付，又要跳票了。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105161013465v2060xz1o46zxyx\"/><p>另一个值得关注的玩家，是侯晓迪创业再出发的<strong>Bot Auto</strong>：</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/7fokiaaibkadJY5NrKfbupQm6nm9o2aKCovuI5Kc1bBG2VCHIf0HM8LFffFC6RUDpN2qLvxWbb4It7uaoTc78xPg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p>刚刚跑通无人Demo，的确惊艳，不过仍然没走到规模化落地运营阶段。</p><p>但值得注意的是，侯晓迪已经明确，Bot Auto的技术体系抛弃了传统L4的模块化、规则驱动，转而从特斯拉的数据驱动借鉴经验，迅速提高系统的迭代效率和泛化性。</p><p>当然，还有曾经高举高打进军过自动驾驶卡车、后来又低调退出，现在Robotaxi一骑绝尘的另一个自动驾驶一哥<strong>Waymo</strong>。</p><p>实际上Waymo最初也是看中了货运这条赛道降本需求迫切，Robotaxi技术又有极高的复用性，能够快速产生营收才选择切入的。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105161038704v206w8i8dd8aogv\"/><p>不过北美的现实因素还包括车企方：北美卡车公司小而多，做成了地域特征明显的闭环生意，很少有积极意愿和自动驾驶公司共同开发前装量产车型。</p><p>包括倒掉的图森北美、Embark，暂停项目的Waymo等等在内，一直没拿出过真正的前装量产L4卡车。</p><p>各种因素作用，Waymo的Robotaxi业务一飞冲天，但Robotruck业务长期沉寂，直到去年年中官方第一次明确暂停投入。</p><p>不过外媒The Information前几天透露了一个未经证实的消息，说<strong>Waymo目前正在积极考虑重启自动驾驶卡车业务，瞄准干线物流场景</strong>。</p><p>回归国内视角，Robotruck赛道不算封闭港口园区场景，干线物流，包括城际中短途货运，现在呈现出的格局是——</p><p>模式上殊途同归、竞争上头部效应凸显，而背后是技术上护城河越来越明显。</p><p>模式上就是前面详细解释过的“L4编队”，成了Robotruck赛道公认最合适的落地路径，本来就以L4立身的、前期做L2的、以造车为主的等等玩家，现在几乎无一例外转向编队模式。</p><p>其中一马当先的是我们介绍过的<strong>卡尔动力</strong>，实际编队运营规模400台，单车盈亏线已经打平。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105161051553v206tiyfl2mw2cd\"/><p><strong>小马智行、DeepWay</strong>现阶段已经在技术上跑通L4编队，且都有密切合作的前装量产车企，2026年紧锣密鼓迎接规模化挑战。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105161052495v206opgwxznajrz\"/><p>当然还有更加“终局”的玩家<strong>零一卡车，</strong>两条长线并行，一条是卡车新势力，造车卖车持续产生营收；另一条路线是直接全无人卡车，官方直接定义为L5，先在园区内试运行，逐渐拓展到开放道路。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105161054009v206j9f9u6lg786\"/><p>自动驾驶在卡车这条分赛道上，呈现出的中国玩家大胆探索，北美玩家谨慎推进的状态。</p><p>背后驱动因素是<strong>数据驱动的大模型技术浪潮</strong>。</p><p>所谓技术体系、落地模式的“收敛”，是从货运物流场景需求倒推的。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260105161055252v2068r1pzu4or0k\"/><p>短期来看，L4通过“编队”模式，完美平衡法规、成本、技术的不可能三角。但长期考量，真正的核心不是编队中头车的L2，而是尾随车辆的L4能力，毕竟物流是成本极度敏感的行业，唯一能行得通的自动驾驶落地是“去人”，而不是“减人”。</p><p>所以L4卡车赛道短期落地比的是找场景、找客户的能力，但归根结底，还是比能不能真去人、能不能真泛化的技术实力。</p><p>10年洗牌，Robotruck这条赛道早已经证明：只有真正的L4，L2/L3没有任何模糊空间、立足之地。</p><p>—<strong>联系</strong><strong>作者</strong>—</p><p>—<strong>完</strong>—</p><p>【智能车参考】原创内容，未经账号授权，禁止随意转载。</p><p><strong>点这里</strong>关注我，记得标星，么么哒～</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>湖南Robotruck海外出圈：L4还能这么玩？领先特斯拉太多！</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n湖南Robotruck海外出圈：L4还能这么玩？领先特斯拉太多！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-05 16:06 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260105161504a6f50c2f&s=b><strong>智能车参考</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>贾浩楠 发自 副驾寺智能车参考 | 公众号 AI4Auto“比FSD领先好几步”——海外看到中国自动驾驶方案，有种惊呆的感觉…自动驾驶，还能这么玩？自动驾驶“三座大山”：成本、监管、技术的不可能三角，特斯拉Waymo一直拿不出解法，甚至还淘汰了大量初创公司。而中国玩家“巧力出奇迹”，一举扫清了L4的落地障碍：场景，是自动驾驶卡车；背后玩家更令人惊奇，竟然是从湖南娄底走出的全球工程机械“一哥”三一...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260105161504a6f50c2f&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"600031":"三一重工","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","TSYW.SI":"TESLA 3xLongSG261006","BK4604":"机器人概念","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","LU0210536198.USD":"JPM US GROWTH \"A\" ACC","LU2896262040.SGD":"JPM US GROWTH 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AI4Auto“比FSD领先好几步”——海外看到中国自动驾驶方案，有种惊呆的感觉…自动驾驶，还能这么玩？自动驾驶“三座大山”：成本、监管、技术的不可能三角，特斯拉Waymo一直拿不出解法，甚至还淘汰了大量初创公司。而中国玩家“巧力出奇迹”，一举扫清了L4的落地障碍：场景，是自动驾驶卡车；背后玩家更令人惊奇，竟然是从湖南娄底走出的全球工程机械“一哥”三一重工。在重卡市场上一鸣惊人不奇怪，毕竟重工到重卡某种程度是降维打击。但从传统制造业巨头一跃成为AI、自动驾驶圈明星，这个转身太突然也太不可思议。怎么做到的？三一拿出了什么样的L4方案让海外直呼“妙哉”的L4卡车落地方案，国内尤其是智能车参考的读者老爷一点都不陌生：L4编队模式。整个车队都是三一重卡，但头车是一辆L2卡车（当然也可以是L4），配备一位人类驾驶员，车队后续尾随的，全部都是完全无人的L4卡车。头车作用，除了满足各地区普遍的法规，最重要的职责是解决L4运营中的“断点恢复”问题，包括辅助装卸货、应对临时停车检查等等自动驾驶系统能力之外的流程性任务。车队之间采用V2V实现通信，常规路况下执行跟随策略，需要超车、绕行的场景，车队会遵从头车指示。但头车并不具备后车的操作权限，接到指令后，后车的感知、规划和具体执行，都由L4自动驾驶系统完成。法规层面和实际运营中，纯无人的自动驾驶卡车往往被局限在矿场、港口等等封闭区域内，投放规模和营收增长都受到极大限制。编队模式的第一个优势，就是通过“头车有人”彻底打破地理围栏限制。经济上，三一打造的编队可以“1拖N”，如果是“一拖四”模式，首先至少能节约80%的人工费用。编队行驶中，头车尾部会还产生一个低压区，阻力大幅减少，跟随车辆能够显著节省能耗，行业普遍实测节能10%左右。再加上自动驾驶带来的货物运损、事故率及保险费用等等下降，官方给出的数据是每公里货运成本降低29%、车队运营利润提升高达195%。货运物流行业亘古不变，决定一切矛盾、供需关系的根本出发只有一条：成本，限制条件和额外影响因素远少于Robotaxi。这也是编队模式的最大优势：相比只能减人不能去人的L2卡车，降本增效立竿见影。这也是让海外惊叹“没想到”的核心：三一用L4编队打了一个双向“剪刀差”，相比纯无人场景不受限，相比L2卡车成本大幅降低——扫清了L4卡车的落地障碍。包括特斯拉、Waymo，以前高光过又倒掉的北美自动驾驶卡车玩家等等在内，却无一尝试。况且，北美路况其实更加适合编队模式。海外智能车媒体Electrek发出了这样的感叹：三一落地的Robotruck编队模式，的确也不是完全无人驾驶，但又比特斯拉FSD明显领先，至少现在的FSD还必须要求驾驶员随时接管。Robotruck本身AI司机的核心算法能力，以及前装量产的工程化能力，这两点放在如今任何自动驾驶玩家，甚至是头部玩家身上都是稀缺且关键的核心竞争力。在三一重工这个传统工程机械巨头身上更加令人惊奇。毕竟一直以来三一活跃在大家面前的形象，都是起重机、混凝土机械、挖掘机等等：就算切入重卡赛道，依然是以传统柴油产品为主，主打性价比出圈，新能源重卡也是前几年起步。短短时间内，就具备L4全栈研发、运营能力，甚至参透了Robotruck落地模式“天机”，三一背后难道另有“高人”？三一出圈，谁的内功？其实这张图片已经能看出端倪：三一自动驾驶重卡车厢上印着自动驾驶圈再熟悉不过的名字：PONY——小马智行。L4编队模式模式落地的车，其实也是小马智行前不久刚刚亮相过的第四代自动驾驶卡车：重卡车头本体是小马智行和三一重卡合作的前装量产产品，L4及编队算法是小马智行最新自动驾驶全栈技术体系。软件上早就从传统L4阵营的模块化、规则化体系，进化到了基于强化学习范式的世界模型：PonyWorld。三大核心能力：生成场景和传感器数据、高度逼真的仿真以及驾驶行为的多维度评估；能够让AI司机学习驾驶意图和决策，逐步建立对复杂驾驶情境的理解和应对能力，也就是让模型从端到端简单的模仿学习，到理解输出轨迹和场景动态之间的因果关而这也是小马智行通用AI司机的基座，同时也为Robotaxi提供核心能力。复用和互通布置停留在软件算法层间，硬件方案，包括的自研域控、传感器、冗余等等，同样和小马智行第七代Robotaxi高度复用。也就是说，在全车4-6个激光雷达的条件下，自动驾驶套件BOM成本仍然比前代降低约70%——编队解决落地运营的模式问题，和Robotaxi复用的L4软硬件则解决了单车成本问题。2026年，小马智行给出的预估是四代自动驾驶重卡很快就能投产，并达到1000辆落地规模。根据小马智行的第三季度财报，Robotruck业务收入7250万元人民币，而三季度总营收为1.81亿人民币，Robotruck占总营收超过1/3，而这还仅仅是四代车没落地的数据。所以，2026不光是Robotaxi落地盈利的元年，同样也是自动驾驶“第二战场”L4卡车的商业化元年。而对于小马智行来说，两条腿的“加速度”，可能比以往任何时候都快。海外自动驾驶卡车，牌桌上还剩谁？北美一只手就能数的过来，首先是马斯克的特斯拉SemiTruck：特斯拉存在多久，SemiTruck项目的历史就有多久，只不过特斯拉在卡车项目上，比跑车、皮卡等等都更加忠实马斯克“延期兑现”的习惯：截止2025年，SemiTruck交付量将将过百。至于卡车的自动驾驶系统，还是FSD的非公开的专用测试阶段。特斯拉自动驾驶卡车推进节奏相比乘用车慢的不是一星半点，其实也可以理解，一方面主观因素上，分散马斯克精力的事实在太多了……同时特斯拉乘用车销售基本盘又面临严峻挑战，比如纯电销冠也刚刚败给了比亚迪。客观因素上，北美推自动驾驶卡车，要面临着强大的卡车司机行会组织。很有可能，老马承诺的2026年SemiTruck年产5万辆开启大规模交付，又要跳票了。另一个值得关注的玩家，是侯晓迪创业再出发的Bot Auto：刚刚跑通无人Demo，的确惊艳，不过仍然没走到规模化落地运营阶段。但值得注意的是，侯晓迪已经明确，Bot Auto的技术体系抛弃了传统L4的模块化、规则驱动，转而从特斯拉的数据驱动借鉴经验，迅速提高系统的迭代效率和泛化性。当然，还有曾经高举高打进军过自动驾驶卡车、后来又低调退出，现在Robotaxi一骑绝尘的另一个自动驾驶一哥Waymo。实际上Waymo最初也是看中了货运这条赛道降本需求迫切，Robotaxi技术又有极高的复用性，能够快速产生营收才选择切入的。不过北美的现实因素还包括车企方：北美卡车公司小而多，做成了地域特征明显的闭环生意，很少有积极意愿和自动驾驶公司共同开发前装量产车型。包括倒掉的图森北美、Embark，暂停项目的Waymo等等在内，一直没拿出过真正的前装量产L4卡车。各种因素作用，Waymo的Robotaxi业务一飞冲天，但Robotruck业务长期沉寂，直到去年年中官方第一次明确暂停投入。不过外媒The Information前几天透露了一个未经证实的消息，说Waymo目前正在积极考虑重启自动驾驶卡车业务，瞄准干线物流场景。回归国内视角，Robotruck赛道不算封闭港口园区场景，干线物流，包括城际中短途货运，现在呈现出的格局是——模式上殊途同归、竞争上头部效应凸显，而背后是技术上护城河越来越明显。模式上就是前面详细解释过的“L4编队”，成了Robotruck赛道公认最合适的落地路径，本来就以L4立身的、前期做L2的、以造车为主的等等玩家，现在几乎无一例外转向编队模式。其中一马当先的是我们介绍过的卡尔动力，实际编队运营规模400台，单车盈亏线已经打平。小马智行、DeepWay现阶段已经在技术上跑通L4编队，且都有密切合作的前装量产车企，2026年紧锣密鼓迎接规模化挑战。当然还有更加“终局”的玩家零一卡车，两条长线并行，一条是卡车新势力，造车卖车持续产生营收；另一条路线是直接全无人卡车，官方直接定义为L5，先在园区内试运行，逐渐拓展到开放道路。自动驾驶在卡车这条分赛道上，呈现出的中国玩家大胆探索，北美玩家谨慎推进的状态。背后驱动因素是数据驱动的大模型技术浪潮。所谓技术体系、落地模式的“收敛”，是从货运物流场景需求倒推的。短期来看，L4通过“编队”模式，完美平衡法规、成本、技术的不可能三角。但长期考量，真正的核心不是编队中头车的L2，而是尾随车辆的L4能力，毕竟物流是成本极度敏感的行业，唯一能行得通的自动驾驶落地是“去人”，而不是“减人”。所以L4卡车赛道短期落地比的是找场景、找客户的能力，但归根结底，还是比能不能真去人、能不能真泛化的技术实力。10年洗牌，Robotruck这条赛道早已经证明：只有真正的L4，L2/L3没有任何模糊空间、立足之地。—联系作者——完—【智能车参考】原创内容，未经账号授权，禁止随意转载。点这里关注我，记得标星，么么哒～","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600031":1.93,"TSLA":0.9,"TSYW.SI":0.6,"06031":1.93}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":33,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":511733618606392,"gmtCreate":1765961926118,"gmtModify":1765961929111,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"亏钱亏急眼了","listText":"亏钱亏急眼了","text":"亏钱亏急眼了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/511733618606392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":511363798368904,"gmtCreate":1765871573769,"gmtModify":1765871576614,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"正视技术优势，自我麻痹是没有用的","listText":"正视技术优势，自我麻痹是没有用的","text":"正视技术优势，自我麻痹是没有用的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/511363798368904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":511052546786064,"gmtCreate":1765795591154,"gmtModify":1765795593423,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"说点你听得懂的真话，你又急了","listText":"说点你听得懂的真话，你又急了","text":"说点你听得懂的真话，你又急了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/511052546786064","repostId":"2591617050","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2591617050","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1765793768,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2591617050?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-15 18:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉急了？发文内涵国内友商 称只会一味堆大电池 续航还不行","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2591617050","media":"太平洋汽车网","summary":"12月15日，特斯拉官方发文直接内涵国内友商，称一些车型只会一味堆大电池，却没推出更长的续航；飙更高的马力，却没带来更强的动力；背着更重的车身，结果载重严重“缩水”。特斯拉官方提到：一味堆电池只会增加车重，甚至列举一些车型搭载100度电池，Model 3重几百斤，续航也没超过Model 3；更嘲讽道一些车比Model Y重1000+斤，续航不如Model Y。","content":"<html><body><article><p>【<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">太平洋</a>汽车 行业频道】12月15日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>官方发文直接内涵国内友商，称一些车型只会一味堆大电池，却没推出更长的续航；飙更高的马力，却没带来更强的动力；背着更重的车身，结果载重严重“缩水”。</p><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OhsPjB2JHYzlql10dpoqwkrwpERDA7ySrr1caVU2tLQVgAA/0\"/><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OpaefuZNRkz5PS2_WiMP-m7ihGhn9f4Ytf1ul_ZwdD8UUAA/0\"/><p>在文章开头，特斯拉自问自答，提到选好车看什么？自行给答案是除了看品牌、看价格、看配置、看续航，还要关心一下车重，直言重量最能看出一辆车有“几斤几两”，于是就有文章开头那一段。</p><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OsvTCI5DlBAi4vwFjvKSAu3ZCODLnPlAq5F6rureWmr78AA/0\"/><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OVuQeugGF451uqkiHqo_Y8ZXejbvzvIwQt-nnM2-UCgh4AA/0\"/><p>特斯拉官方提到：一味堆电池只会增加车重，甚至列举一些车型搭载100度电池，Model 3（询底价|查参配）重几百斤，续航也没超过Model 3；更嘲讽道一些车比Model Y重1000+斤，续航不如Model Y。</p><p>特斯拉官方还给出解释：同等条件下，电池越重，车辆越重，电耗也就越高，续航提升越有限；电池越大，车越大，让电池跑起来的“损耗”也越大，而车身每减重10%，续航里程可提升5%-6%。</p><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O1O-M9KcoIQa9zoil66zAWgMLqGyYDZST1zSaaZ3Y1BE0AA/0\"/><p>对于动力方面，特斯拉官方更是直言：宁少十马力，不多一公斤，再大的马力，配上过大的电池、过重的车身都无法发挥出优异的加速性能。对于看载重，更是嘲讽道有些车型看似车身尺寸大了，但能装的反而更少了。</p><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/ObKZn2Yx-y6G2SrMaGJDufbAvOG7Ge_xrq70QKBfz7H0kAA/0\"/><p>特斯拉官方还表示：电动车盲目堆料，堆出来的是风险；科学减重，留给消费者的是同级更优的载重、空间、能耗、操控.....最重要的是安全。减重不是偷工减料，而是实实在在的硬核科技。</p><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OhBFwLsd1Iu3FhKPC5DGIjFax8VuKffe-F6cZV_fk7i50AA/0\"/><p>尽管以上这些话非常刺耳，但也确实很实在，而当下的特斯拉也有狂妄的底气，其Model 3长续航后轮驱动版仅搭载78.4度电池，CLTC纯电续航高达830km，整备质量仅1760kg；其Model Y（询底价|查参配）长续航后轮驱动版同样搭载78.4度电池，CLTC纯电续航达到821km，整备质量仅1891kg。</p><p>之前特斯拉Model Y焕新版刚发布时，就扬言“尽管对比”，引发热议，就连<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>创办人、董事长兼CEO雷军都回应：好的。不知道这次特斯拉再公开“挑衅”各大友商，他们又作何回应？（文：太平洋汽车 吴启星）</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉急了？发文内涵国内友商 称只会一味堆大电池 续航还不行</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉急了？发文内涵国内友商 称只会一味堆大电池 续航还不行\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-15 18:16 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251215181903a6a4c476&s=b><strong>太平洋汽车网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>【太平洋汽车 行业频道】12月15日，特斯拉官方发文直接内涵国内友商，称一些车型只会一味堆大电池，却没推出更长的续航；飙更高的马力，却没带来更强的动力；背着更重的车身，结果载重严重“缩水”。在文章开头，特斯拉自问自答，提到选好车看什么？自行给答案是除了看品牌、看价格、看配置、看续航，还要关心一下车重，直言重量最能看出一辆车有“几斤几两”，于是就有文章开头那一段。特斯拉官方提到：一味堆电池只会增加...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251215181903a6a4c476&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) 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行业频道】12月15日，特斯拉官方发文直接内涵国内友商，称一些车型只会一味堆大电池，却没推出更长的续航；飙更高的马力，却没带来更强的动力；背着更重的车身，结果载重严重“缩水”。在文章开头，特斯拉自问自答，提到选好车看什么？自行给答案是除了看品牌、看价格、看配置、看续航，还要关心一下车重，直言重量最能看出一辆车有“几斤几两”，于是就有文章开头那一段。特斯拉官方提到：一味堆电池只会增加车重，甚至列举一些车型搭载100度电池，Model 3（询底价|查参配）重几百斤，续航也没超过Model 3；更嘲讽道一些车比Model Y重1000+斤，续航不如Model Y。特斯拉官方还给出解释：同等条件下，电池越重，车辆越重，电耗也就越高，续航提升越有限；电池越大，车越大，让电池跑起来的“损耗”也越大，而车身每减重10%，续航里程可提升5%-6%。对于动力方面，特斯拉官方更是直言：宁少十马力，不多一公斤，再大的马力，配上过大的电池、过重的车身都无法发挥出优异的加速性能。对于看载重，更是嘲讽道有些车型看似车身尺寸大了，但能装的反而更少了。特斯拉官方还表示：电动车盲目堆料，堆出来的是风险；科学减重，留给消费者的是同级更优的载重、空间、能耗、操控.....最重要的是安全。减重不是偷工减料，而是实实在在的硬核科技。尽管以上这些话非常刺耳，但也确实很实在，而当下的特斯拉也有狂妄的底气，其Model 3长续航后轮驱动版仅搭载78.4度电池，CLTC纯电续航高达830km，整备质量仅1760kg；其Model Y（询底价|查参配）长续航后轮驱动版同样搭载78.4度电池，CLTC纯电续航达到821km，整备质量仅1891kg。之前特斯拉Model Y焕新版刚发布时，就扬言“尽管对比”，引发热议，就连小米创办人、董事长兼CEO雷军都回应：好的。不知道这次特斯拉再公开“挑衅”各大友商，他们又作何回应？（文：太平洋汽车 吴启星）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLA":1.5,"TSLL":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":511034518118496,"gmtCreate":1765791264930,"gmtModify":1765791267660,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"再怎么黑也阻挡不了时代的车轮","listText":"再怎么黑也阻挡不了时代的车轮","text":"再怎么黑也阻挡不了时代的车轮","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/511034518118496","repostId":"2591496619","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2591496619","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1765786332,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2591496619?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-15 16:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉FSD实测：驾驶体验提升，但完全自动驾驶仍非一蹴而就","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2591496619","media":"金十数据","summary":"《巴伦周刊》近期对特斯拉最新的“全自动驾驶”系统进行了实际道路测试。数据显示，其安全行驶里程大幅增加。尽管取得了这些进展，但仍难以断言特斯拉是否已处于实现通用自动驾驶的边缘。全自动驾驶系统仍然需要人类100%的时间进行监督。评测人员家中拥有不止一辆车，驾驶另一辆非特斯拉的车辆也毫无问题。目前，美国特斯拉车队中约有12%支付费用使用全自动驾驶系统。全自动驾驶系统版本14所代表的，正是通往这一目标道路上的又一步。","content":"<html><body><article><p>《巴伦周刊》近期对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>最新的“全自动驾驶”系统（版本14）进行了实际道路测试。测试发现，该系统在驾驶平稳性、日常及复杂路况处理方面均有明显改进，甚至让乘客感到比人类驾驶更舒适。数据显示，其安全行驶里程大幅增加。</p><p>特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）深信，任何尝试过其电动汽车制造商旗下最高级别驾驶辅助产品——全自动驾驶系统的人，都将对它产生依赖。</p><p>他并没有说错。</p><p>《巴伦周刊》对特斯拉(TSLA.O)全自动驾驶系统的最新版本（版本14）进行了多次试驾，一如之前测试旧版本那样，旨在帮助未接触过该技术的投资者了解其当前发展状况。它正在不断改进。</p><p>该刊的首次评测是在2023年9月，当时将其驾驶体验描述为“像一个刚拿学习驾照的青少年与一位八旬老人的混合体”。系统表现尚可，但平心而论，当时评测人员自身的驾驶技术可能更好。而2024年及2025年初的评测则显示了进步。</p><p>版本14在系统能力和驾驶品质上又提升了一步。对于这个最新版本，最恰当的赞誉或许是：评测人员的乘客更喜欢让全自动驾驶系统来驾驶，而不是评测人员本人。现在，特斯拉的系统运行更平稳，不再那么颠簸。它可能确实是个更出色的“驾驶员”。</p><p>（一项显著的改进是，车辆能够自主停靠到特斯拉超级充电站，并准备就绪以进行充电。）</p><p>当然，《巴伦周刊》的产品评测并非全面或具有严格科学性。但测试车辆在相同道路、相似路况下进行了对比。它也在雪天以及往返拉瓜迪亚机场的行程中表现出色，未出现任何重大问题。</p><p>还有其他证据表明系统正在改进。华尔街不时参考的众包网站teslafsdtracker.com报告称，全自动驾驶系统版本14.1.7在两次“严重脱离”之间已累计行驶超过9000英里，投资者将此解读为车辆做出令驾驶员认为危险行为的间隔里程。</p><p>尽管取得了这些进展，但仍难以断言特斯拉是否已处于实现通用自动驾驶的边缘。Alphabet旗下的Waymo机器人出租车表现似乎要出色约一倍。全自动驾驶系统仍然需要人类100%的时间进行监督。此外，评测人员可以选择如“赶时间”之类的驾驶模式，从而规避限速法规。（不过，这是评测人员个人的选择。）</p><p>最终，全自动驾驶系统何时能成熟到足以让人类驾驶员将视线从道路上移开，这将由联邦和各州的监管机构决定。该全自动驾驶系统一直受到监管机构的持续审查，近期还因涉及车道标线、交通标志和交通信号的违规行为受到批评。它并非完美。</p><p>目前，在大多数情况下，《巴伦周刊》的评测人员更倾向于让全自动驾驶系统完成大部分驾驶操作。这使生活轻松了些许，并且在有监督的情况下，增添了一层乘客们逐渐认可的安全保障。</p><p>在某种程度上，这印证了马斯克对该产品的看法。马斯克在特斯拉11月举行的年度股东大会上表示：“销售团队和服务团队实际上会与客户坐下来，说：‘您看，让我们展示一下它是如何工作的，有多么方便。’然后，即使他们只尝试了几天，也会发现离不开它了。”</p><p>当然，这有些夸张。没有它人们也能生活。评测人员家中拥有不止一辆车，驾驶另一辆非特斯拉的车辆也毫无问题。但评测人员并不喜欢那样做。</p><p>全自动驾驶系统的改进对特斯拉股票意味着什么很容易估算：它意味着一切。特斯拉的市值约为1.5万亿美元，是其2026年预估收益的200倍，这是因为投资者预期，经由人工智能训练的自动驾驶特斯拉将开启一个收益增长的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00166\">新时代</a>。</p><p>目前，美国特斯拉车队中约有12%支付费用使用全自动驾驶系统。这相当于有数十万人为这款驾驶辅助产品付费。然而，这并不足以支撑特斯拉当前的股票市场估值。相反，投资者预期自动驾驶技术的进步，将推动特斯拉于6月在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出的机器人出租车平台在2026年快速扩张。</p><p>全自动驾驶系统版本14所代表的，正是通往这一目标道路上的又一步。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉FSD实测：驾驶体验提升，但完全自动驾驶仍非一蹴而就</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉FSD实测：驾驶体验提升，但完全自动驾驶仍非一蹴而就\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-15 16:12 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251215163252a44d3f00&s=b><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>《巴伦周刊》近期对特斯拉最新的“全自动驾驶”系统（版本14）进行了实际道路测试。测试发现，该系统在驾驶平稳性、日常及复杂路况处理方面均有明显改进，甚至让乘客感到比人类驾驶更舒适。数据显示，其安全行驶里程大幅增加。特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）深信，任何尝试过其电动汽车制造商旗下最高级别驾驶辅助产品——全自动驾驶系统的人，都将对它产生依赖。他并没有说错。《巴伦周刊》对特斯拉(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251215163252a44d3f00&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU2896262040.SGD":"JPM US GROWTH FUND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","TSYW.SI":"TESLA 3xLongSG261006","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" 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ACC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251215163252a44d3f00&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2591496619","content_text":"《巴伦周刊》近期对特斯拉最新的“全自动驾驶”系统（版本14）进行了实际道路测试。测试发现，该系统在驾驶平稳性、日常及复杂路况处理方面均有明显改进，甚至让乘客感到比人类驾驶更舒适。数据显示，其安全行驶里程大幅增加。特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）深信，任何尝试过其电动汽车制造商旗下最高级别驾驶辅助产品——全自动驾驶系统的人，都将对它产生依赖。他并没有说错。《巴伦周刊》对特斯拉(TSLA.O)全自动驾驶系统的最新版本（版本14）进行了多次试驾，一如之前测试旧版本那样，旨在帮助未接触过该技术的投资者了解其当前发展状况。它正在不断改进。该刊的首次评测是在2023年9月，当时将其驾驶体验描述为“像一个刚拿学习驾照的青少年与一位八旬老人的混合体”。系统表现尚可，但平心而论，当时评测人员自身的驾驶技术可能更好。而2024年及2025年初的评测则显示了进步。版本14在系统能力和驾驶品质上又提升了一步。对于这个最新版本，最恰当的赞誉或许是：评测人员的乘客更喜欢让全自动驾驶系统来驾驶，而不是评测人员本人。现在，特斯拉的系统运行更平稳，不再那么颠簸。它可能确实是个更出色的“驾驶员”。（一项显著的改进是，车辆能够自主停靠到特斯拉超级充电站，并准备就绪以进行充电。）当然，《巴伦周刊》的产品评测并非全面或具有严格科学性。但测试车辆在相同道路、相似路况下进行了对比。它也在雪天以及往返拉瓜迪亚机场的行程中表现出色，未出现任何重大问题。还有其他证据表明系统正在改进。华尔街不时参考的众包网站teslafsdtracker.com报告称，全自动驾驶系统版本14.1.7在两次“严重脱离”之间已累计行驶超过9000英里，投资者将此解读为车辆做出令驾驶员认为危险行为的间隔里程。尽管取得了这些进展，但仍难以断言特斯拉是否已处于实现通用自动驾驶的边缘。Alphabet旗下的Waymo机器人出租车表现似乎要出色约一倍。全自动驾驶系统仍然需要人类100%的时间进行监督。此外，评测人员可以选择如“赶时间”之类的驾驶模式，从而规避限速法规。（不过，这是评测人员个人的选择。）最终，全自动驾驶系统何时能成熟到足以让人类驾驶员将视线从道路上移开，这将由联邦和各州的监管机构决定。该全自动驾驶系统一直受到监管机构的持续审查，近期还因涉及车道标线、交通标志和交通信号的违规行为受到批评。它并非完美。目前，在大多数情况下，《巴伦周刊》的评测人员更倾向于让全自动驾驶系统完成大部分驾驶操作。这使生活轻松了些许，并且在有监督的情况下，增添了一层乘客们逐渐认可的安全保障。在某种程度上，这印证了马斯克对该产品的看法。马斯克在特斯拉11月举行的年度股东大会上表示：“销售团队和服务团队实际上会与客户坐下来，说：‘您看，让我们展示一下它是如何工作的，有多么方便。’然后，即使他们只尝试了几天，也会发现离不开它了。”当然，这有些夸张。没有它人们也能生活。评测人员家中拥有不止一辆车，驾驶另一辆非特斯拉的车辆也毫无问题。但评测人员并不喜欢那样做。全自动驾驶系统的改进对特斯拉股票意味着什么很容易估算：它意味着一切。特斯拉的市值约为1.5万亿美元，是其2026年预估收益的200倍，这是因为投资者预期，经由人工智能训练的自动驾驶特斯拉将开启一个收益增长的新时代。目前，美国特斯拉车队中约有12%支付费用使用全自动驾驶系统。这相当于有数十万人为这款驾驶辅助产品付费。然而，这并不足以支撑特斯拉当前的股票市场估值。相反，投资者预期自动驾驶技术的进步，将推动特斯拉于6月在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出的机器人出租车平台在2026年快速扩张。全自动驾驶系统版本14所代表的，正是通往这一目标道路上的又一步。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLA":1.5,"TSLL":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":511051259679184,"gmtCreate":1765781228294,"gmtModify":1765781231698,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying 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20:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"何小鹏“亮剑”马斯克，若失败，负责人将在金门大桥“裸跑”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152111177","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"放话与特斯拉一争高下。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者 | 王小娟</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今年还未过去，汽车行业就智能辅助驾驶的领先已经开始预约明年的“战火”了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">12月11日， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a> 董事长何小鹏在社交媒体上立下一则“赌约”：<strong>若到明年8月30日，小鹏VLA技术在国内达到特斯拉FSD V14.2在硅谷的整体水平，他将在硅谷筹建中国风味食堂；若失败，自动驾驶负责人Head Xianming（刘先明）将在金门大桥“裸跑”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">何小鹏立下这个赌约，放话与特斯拉一争高下，也因为对 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a> FSD系统长期的体验与观察。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近期在硅谷试驾最新的FSD V14.2版本和Robotaxi后，何小鹏表示，FSD已经从一年前L2高阶辅助驾驶的“丝滑体验”，进步到现在的“准L4的安心阶段”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在约5小时的试驾中，他发现标准车辆和Robotaxi使用同一模型表现一致，虽然仍存在瑕疵，但已“大幅度超过去年的水准”。他对特斯拉自动驾驶技术的进步给予了肯定。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">何小鹏认为，未来将是同一个自动驾驶系统和硬件体系的时代，人们可以直接享有L4能力的汽车。这一判断与小鹏汽车自身的技术路线选择密切相关。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在公开称赞特斯拉FSD的同时，何小鹏也不掩饰小鹏VLA与FSD当前存在的差距。他坦承：“小鹏VLA的第一个版本尚无法完全实现FSD V14.2的全部能力。” 但同时也透露，小鹏VLA 2.0将在下个季度发布。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于追赶时间表，何小鹏在今年8月曾表示，当前智能辅助驾驶的第一梯队玩家“半斤八两”，有的依靠算力，算力不足的就通过算力加激光雷达的组合。但他预测，到2026年小鹏Robotaxi开始试运营时，小鹏Ultra车型所配置的与L4 Robotaxi同源的模型，将会“显著超越市场上其他智能辅助驾驶产品能力的数十倍甚至以上”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在2025年的小鹏科技日上，小鹏的智驾又有了新的进度。当时，小鹏推出第二代VLA模型，与传统“视觉-语言-动作”架构不同，第二代VLA创新性地去掉了“语言转译”环节，首次实现从视觉信号到动作指令的端到端直接生成。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在这一技术的支持之下，小鹏的自动辅助驾驶可以应对各种复杂小路与园区场景。同时，小鹏还首发了“无导航自动辅助驾驶”Super LCC+人机共驾。这意味着，该功能在不依赖导航的情形下可全球范围开启。何小鹏介绍，2026年第一季度将面向小鹏Ultra车型全量推送第二代VLA。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">何小鹏强调，小鹏在新一代VLA大模型上下重注，目标是让汽车在各种复杂场景下都能安全通行，包括大路、小路、高速户外甚至是北京的胡同。何小鹏认为，只有解决了这些场景的问题，才有可能实现真正的无人驾驶。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">小鹏汽车在自动驾驶领域的重注基于对行业趋势的判断。何小鹏认为，未来十年内将看到L4级自动驾驶的更大规模应用。他指出，未来汽车将是“具身智能的汽车”，汽车产业和人形机器人产业将相辅相成、互相促进。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在硬件芯片方面，今年8月，何小鹏宣布从2025年三季度上市的小鹏G7和P7开始，旗下各车型的Ultra版本将全面升级智能硬件，搭载三颗自研图灵AI芯片，有效算力高达2250TOPS。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，在今年的科技日上，小鹏的Robotaxi也有了新的进展。何小鹏透露，小鹏将在2026年推出三款Robotaxi车型，并启动试运营。与特斯拉不同，小鹏将专注于Robotaxi产品研发，不涉及运营环节。当前，高德成为小鹏Robotaxi首个全球生态合作伙伴。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在研发投入方面，何小鹏预计，未来汽车公司的年研发投入将达500亿元，其中300亿元将用于AI领域。对于小鹏而言，每年投入数十亿元建设算力中心已成为常态。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这场赌局背后，是中国智能汽车企业在自动驾驶核心技术领域挑战全球领先者的缩影。随着第二代VLA的发布和Robotaxi项目有了新进展，小鹏汽车正在自动驾驶赛道上加速追赶。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从AEB能力提升，到VLA模型革新，小鹏试图通过全栈自研构建壁垒。但特斯拉的迭代速度提示，智驾的竞争不仅是算法之争，更是数据、算力与工程化能力的综合较量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">赌局终点，是中国风味食堂在金门大桥对岸的硅谷落地，还是自动驾驶负责人在金门大桥上的“裸跑”，就看是小鹏的智驾系统能否达到特斯拉的水平，成为名副其实的“中国特斯拉”。届时，小鹏或将迎来新一轮的被重估。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>何小鹏“亮剑”马斯克，若失败，负责人将在金门大桥“裸跑”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n何小鹏“亮剑”马斯克，若失败，负责人将在金门大桥“裸跑”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-12 20:04 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761278><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者 | 王小娟今年还未过去，汽车行业就智能辅助驾驶的领先已经开始预约明年的“战火”了。12月11日， 小鹏汽车 董事长何小鹏在社交媒体上立下一则“赌约”：若到明年8月30日，小鹏VLA技术在国内达到特斯拉FSD V14.2在硅谷的整体水平，他将在硅谷筹建中国风味食堂；若失败，自动驾驶负责人Head Xianming（刘先明）将在金门大桥“裸跑”。何小鹏立下这个赌约，放话与特斯拉一争高下，也因为对...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761278\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/429cf9337e59567edb66a7535c469fb1","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761278","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152111177","content_text":"作者 | 王小娟今年还未过去，汽车行业就智能辅助驾驶的领先已经开始预约明年的“战火”了。12月11日， 小鹏汽车 董事长何小鹏在社交媒体上立下一则“赌约”：若到明年8月30日，小鹏VLA技术在国内达到特斯拉FSD V14.2在硅谷的整体水平，他将在硅谷筹建中国风味食堂；若失败，自动驾驶负责人Head Xianming（刘先明）将在金门大桥“裸跑”。何小鹏立下这个赌约，放话与特斯拉一争高下，也因为对 特斯拉 FSD系统长期的体验与观察。近期在硅谷试驾最新的FSD V14.2版本和Robotaxi后，何小鹏表示，FSD已经从一年前L2高阶辅助驾驶的“丝滑体验”，进步到现在的“准L4的安心阶段”。在约5小时的试驾中，他发现标准车辆和Robotaxi使用同一模型表现一致，虽然仍存在瑕疵，但已“大幅度超过去年的水准”。他对特斯拉自动驾驶技术的进步给予了肯定。何小鹏认为，未来将是同一个自动驾驶系统和硬件体系的时代，人们可以直接享有L4能力的汽车。这一判断与小鹏汽车自身的技术路线选择密切相关。在公开称赞特斯拉FSD的同时，何小鹏也不掩饰小鹏VLA与FSD当前存在的差距。他坦承：“小鹏VLA的第一个版本尚无法完全实现FSD V14.2的全部能力。” 但同时也透露，小鹏VLA 2.0将在下个季度发布。对于追赶时间表，何小鹏在今年8月曾表示，当前智能辅助驾驶的第一梯队玩家“半斤八两”，有的依靠算力，算力不足的就通过算力加激光雷达的组合。但他预测，到2026年小鹏Robotaxi开始试运营时，小鹏Ultra车型所配置的与L4 Robotaxi同源的模型，将会“显著超越市场上其他智能辅助驾驶产品能力的数十倍甚至以上”。在2025年的小鹏科技日上，小鹏的智驾又有了新的进度。当时，小鹏推出第二代VLA模型，与传统“视觉-语言-动作”架构不同，第二代VLA创新性地去掉了“语言转译”环节，首次实现从视觉信号到动作指令的端到端直接生成。在这一技术的支持之下，小鹏的自动辅助驾驶可以应对各种复杂小路与园区场景。同时，小鹏还首发了“无导航自动辅助驾驶”Super LCC+人机共驾。这意味着，该功能在不依赖导航的情形下可全球范围开启。何小鹏介绍，2026年第一季度将面向小鹏Ultra车型全量推送第二代VLA。何小鹏强调，小鹏在新一代VLA大模型上下重注，目标是让汽车在各种复杂场景下都能安全通行，包括大路、小路、高速户外甚至是北京的胡同。何小鹏认为，只有解决了这些场景的问题，才有可能实现真正的无人驾驶。小鹏汽车在自动驾驶领域的重注基于对行业趋势的判断。何小鹏认为，未来十年内将看到L4级自动驾驶的更大规模应用。他指出，未来汽车将是“具身智能的汽车”，汽车产业和人形机器人产业将相辅相成、互相促进。在硬件芯片方面，今年8月，何小鹏宣布从2025年三季度上市的小鹏G7和P7开始，旗下各车型的Ultra版本将全面升级智能硬件，搭载三颗自研图灵AI芯片，有效算力高达2250TOPS。与此同时，在今年的科技日上，小鹏的Robotaxi也有了新的进展。何小鹏透露，小鹏将在2026年推出三款Robotaxi车型，并启动试运营。与特斯拉不同，小鹏将专注于Robotaxi产品研发，不涉及运营环节。当前，高德成为小鹏Robotaxi首个全球生态合作伙伴。在研发投入方面，何小鹏预计，未来汽车公司的年研发投入将达500亿元，其中300亿元将用于AI领域。对于小鹏而言，每年投入数十亿元建设算力中心已成为常态。这场赌局背后，是中国智能汽车企业在自动驾驶核心技术领域挑战全球领先者的缩影。随着第二代VLA的发布和Robotaxi项目有了新进展，小鹏汽车正在自动驾驶赛道上加速追赶。从AEB能力提升，到VLA模型革新，小鹏试图通过全栈自研构建壁垒。但特斯拉的迭代速度提示，智驾的竞争不仅是算法之争，更是数据、算力与工程化能力的综合较量。赌局终点，是中国风味食堂在金门大桥对岸的硅谷落地，还是自动驾驶负责人在金门大桥上的“裸跑”，就看是小鹏的智驾系统能否达到特斯拉的水平，成为名副其实的“中国特斯拉”。届时，小鹏或将迎来新一轮的被重估。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":2,"TSLA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":509480586982080,"gmtCreate":1765422939783,"gmtModify":1765423412037,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"不要脸就是无敌","listText":"不要脸就是无敌","text":"不要脸就是无敌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/509480586982080","repostId":"2590187563","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2590187563","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1765421816,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2590187563?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-11 10:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉落后五年还嘴硬？马斯克称Waymo没胜算被“打脸”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2590187563","media":"环球网","summary":"Waymo已积累近1亿英里无人驾驶里程，而特斯拉的相关里程仍为零。更值得关注的是，马斯克曾承诺2020年底推出100万辆自动驾驶出租车，该目标已逾期五年；而Waymo已将“特斯拉的目标”变为现实。外媒报道称，即便特斯拉如期移除安全员，也已落后Waymo约五年，后续还需完成安全性验证与规模化落地两大课题。","content":"<html><body><article><p>【环球网科技综合报道】12月11日，据electrek报道，近日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>CEO埃隆·马斯克在社交平台发文，称Waymo在自动驾驶领域“从来就没真正有过胜算”，此番言论引发行业热议。而就在其发声前，Waymo刚公布1亿英里无安全员载客里程的里程碑及详实安全数据，与特斯拉的发展现状形成鲜明对比。</p><img src=\"https://img.huanqiucdn.cn/dp/api/files/imageDir/bfb148b73c1c484b47ad37f36e4a983fu1.png?imageView2/2/w/1260\"/><p>外媒指出，这场争论源于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>DeepMind首席科学家杰夫·迪恩的公开对比。他指出，特斯拉的无安全员自动驾驶里程与Waymo相去甚远，后者最新安全数据显示，其自动驾驶系统导致严重伤害的事故率较人类驾驶员降低91%，已在旧金山等四大城市开展完全无人驾驶商用服务。</p><p>反观特斯拉，不仅未实现无安全员商用运营，其安全报告还屡遭诟病。报告以安全气囊弹出替代碰撞数据，缺乏细化伤害指标，且数据全程有人类监控，无法单独体现软件性能。即便如此，马斯克仍高调宣布，计划三周内移除奥斯汀自动驾驶出租车车队的安全员。</p><p>行业分析指出，马斯克的言论与现实严重脱节。Waymo已积累近1亿英里无人驾驶里程，而特斯拉的相关里程仍为零。更值得关注的是，马斯克曾承诺2020年底推出100万辆自动驾驶出租车，该目标已逾期五年；而Waymo已将“特斯拉的目标”变为现实。</p><p>外媒报道称，即便特斯拉如期移除安全员，也已落后Waymo约五年，后续还需完成安全性验证与规模化落地两大课题。（旺旺）</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉落后五年还嘴硬？马斯克称Waymo没胜算被“打脸”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉落后五年还嘴硬？马斯克称Waymo没胜算被“打脸”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-11 10:56 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251211105825a4416077&s=b><strong>环球网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>【环球网科技综合报道】12月11日，据electrek报道，近日，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克在社交平台发文，称Waymo在自动驾驶领域“从来就没真正有过胜算”，此番言论引发行业热议。而就在其发声前，Waymo刚公布1亿英里无安全员载客里程的里程碑及详实安全数据，与特斯拉的发展现状形成鲜明对比。外媒指出，这场争论源于谷歌DeepMind首席科学家杰夫·迪恩的公开对比。他指出，特斯拉的无安全员自动驾驶...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251211105825a4416077&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU2417539215.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMF\" (USD) INC","BK4555":"新能源车","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) 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15:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉FSD v14.2.1速遭用户吐槽：档位落差大、限速僵化","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2588013442","media":"环球网","summary":"12月1日消息，据teslarati报道称， 特斯拉最新推送的完全自动驾驶 Beta v14.2.1版本在提升系统整体稳定性的同时，其对速度配置文件的调整引发了部分用户的关注与讨论。此外，用户指出“Hurry”与“Mad Max”两种相邻模式之间的速度落差过大，导致切换时出现明显的减速顿挫感。","content":"<html><body><article><p>12月1日消息，据teslarati报道称， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>最新推送的完全自动驾驶（Full Self-Driving, FSD）Beta v14.2.1版本在提升系统整体稳定性的同时，其对速度配置文件的调整引发了部分用户的关注与讨论。多位早期体验者指出，新版中各驾驶模式之间的速度设定存在明显断层，且固定化的限速偏移策略削弱了系统对实际交通流的适应能力。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251203152635498d201350zv150wca\"/><p>根据用户实测反馈，最新版本为不同速度模式设定了严格的上限阈值。例如，“快速”（Fast）模式下车辆最高仅允许以限速+10英里/小时行驶——在限速55英里/小时的路段，系统将严格限制车速不超过65英里/小时；而“标准”（Standard）模式则通常维持在限速+4至+5英里/小时之间。这种预设式速度曲线被批评为“缺乏动态响应”，未能充分参考周围车流的实际速度。</p><p>一位长期使用FSD Beta的用户表示：“车辆的行驶速度不应仅由限速决定，而应更多地反映道路实时状况。如果大多数车辆以75英里/小时行驶于限速65英里/小时的高速公路上，FSD理应能灵活匹配主流车速，而非机械地卡在69或70英里/小时。”</p><p>此外，用户指出“Hurry”与“Mad Max”两种相邻模式之间的速度落差过大，导致切换时出现明显的减速顿挫感。在限速55英里/小时但实际车流达80英里/小时的路段，“Mad Max”模式能较好融入高速车流，而一旦切换至“Hurry”模式，车速会骤降至65英里/小时左右，造成乘坐不适和超车效率下降。（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688316\">青云</a>）</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉FSD v14.2.1速遭用户吐槽：档位落差大、限速僵化</title>\n<style 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v14.2.1版本在提升系统整体稳定性的同时，其对速度配置文件的调整引发了部分用户的关注与讨论。多位早期体验者指出，新版中各驾驶模式之间的速度设定存在明显断层，且固定化的限速偏移策略削弱了系统对实际交通流的适应能力。根据用户实测反馈，最新版本为不同速度模式设定了严格的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251203152639978d5a12&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSYW.SI":"TESLA 3xLongSG261006","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU2417539215.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMF\" (USD) INC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) 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13:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Burry据报道已做空特斯拉 “荒谬”的估值和马斯克的薪酬计划乃原因所在","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2588848850","media":"蓝鲸财经","summary":"蓝鲸新闻12月2日电，Michael Burry已做空特斯拉股票，称其“估值高得荒谬”，并警告称该公司创始人埃隆·马斯克提出的1万亿美元薪酬方案将加剧股权稀释问题。据Fortune援引Burry在Substack发布的文章报道，他估计，这家电动汽车制造商基于股票的薪酬方案在无回购来进行抵消的情况下，每年会稀释股东权益约3.6%。这延续了Burry对高估值科技股的看跌立场，也呼应了他早前做空芯片龙头股英伟达的做法 —— 他对该股也提出过类似的股权稀释问题。Burry因《大空头》一书名扬四海。","content":"<html><body><article><p>蓝鲸新闻12月2日电，Michael Burry已做空<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股票，称其“估值高得荒谬”，并警告称该公司创始人埃隆·马斯克提出的1万亿美元薪酬方案将加剧<span>股权稀释</span>问题。据Fortune援引Burry在Substack发布的文章报道，他估计，这家电动汽车制造商基于股票的薪酬方案在无<span>回购</span>来进行抵消的情况下，每年会稀释<span>股东权益</span>约3.6%。这延续了Burry对高估值科技股的看跌立场，也呼应了他早前做空芯片龙头股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的做法 —— 他对该股也提出过类似的股权稀释问题。Burry因《大空头》一书名扬四海。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251202140016a71e6f94&s=b><strong>蓝鲸财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>蓝鲸新闻12月2日电，Michael Burry已做空特斯拉股票，称其“估值高得荒谬”，并警告称该公司创始人埃隆·马斯克提出的1万亿美元薪酬方案将加剧股权稀释问题。据Fortune援引Burry在Substack发布的文章报道，他估计，这家电动汽车制造商基于股票的薪酬方案在无回购来进行抵消的情况下，每年会稀释股东权益约3.6%。这延续了Burry对高估值科技股的看跌立场，也呼应了他早前做空芯片...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251202140016a71e6f94&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU2417539215.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMF\" (USD) INC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc 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他对该股也提出过类似的股权稀释问题。Burry因《大空头》一书名扬四海。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLL":1.5,"UFO":0.6,"TSLA":1.5,"DXYZ":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":506164929503832,"gmtCreate":1764606025068,"gmtModify":1764606027751,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"当初被埋，一点教训不吸取","listText":"当初被埋，一点教训不吸取","text":"当初被埋，一点教训不吸取","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/506164929503832","repostId":"2588779141","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2588779141","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1764600348,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2588779141?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-01 22:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“大空头”开火：特斯拉估值高得离谱，马斯克天价薪酬稀释股票","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2588779141","media":"IT之家","summary":"▲ 伯里上周日晚间，伯里在美版公众号 Substack 上发文称，特斯拉的“估值高得离谱”。“特斯拉的市值如今被离谱地高估了，而且这种状况已持续很长时间。”他预计马斯克价值 1 万亿美元的薪酬方案将继续稀释该公司股票。马斯克也已对特斯拉的批评者和做空者予以反击，并预测这家电动汽车制造商将成为全球市值最高的公司。截至发稿，特斯拉尚未就此置评。","content":"<html><body><article><p>北京时间 12 月 1 日，据《商业内幕》报道，电影《大空头》原型人物迈克尔・伯里（Michael Burry）正在向全球科技巨头宣战。在怼完<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>后，他现在又将矛头指向了埃隆・马斯克（Elon Musk）。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251201233712253v163f3094ew2czb\"/><p>▲ 伯里</p><p>上周日晚间，<strong>伯里在美版公众号 Substack 上发文称，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的“估值高得离谱”</strong>。此前，他披露了针对英伟达和 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a> 的做空。</p><p>“特斯拉的市值如今被离谱地高估了，而且这种状况已持续很长时间。”伯里表示。<strong>他预计马斯克价值 1 万亿美元的薪酬方案将继续稀释该公司股票</strong>。</p><p>伯里还表示：“顺带说一句，埃隆的拥趸们一开始全力押注电动汽车，直到竞争对手出现；随后又全力押注自动驾驶，直到竞争对手出现；现在又全力押注机器人，直到竞争对手出现为止。”</p><p>这并不是伯里第一次把矛头对准特斯拉。2021 年，这位投资者曾做空价值 5.3 亿美元的特斯拉股票，但几个月后就平仓离场。伯里之后告诉 CNBC，称这笔操作“只是一次交易”。</p><p><strong>尽管特斯拉股价年初因马斯克入主美国政府效率部出现短暂震荡，但该公司今年以来股价仍上涨了 11%</strong>，因为投资者对该公司推出自动驾驶出租车表示欢迎。</p><p>马斯克也已对特斯拉的批评者和做空者予以反击，并预测这家电动汽车制造商将成为全球市值最高的公司。</p><p>截至发稿，特斯拉尚未就此置评。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“大空头”开火：特斯拉估值高得离谱，马斯克天价薪酬稀释股票</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“大空头”开火：特斯拉估值高得离谱，马斯克天价薪酬稀释股票\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-01 22:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202512012337179524f09f&s=b><strong>IT之家</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>北京时间 12 月 1 日，据《商业内幕》报道，电影《大空头》原型人物迈克尔・伯里（Michael Burry）正在向全球科技巨头宣战。在怼完英伟达后，他现在又将矛头指向了埃隆・马斯克（Elon Musk）。▲ 伯里上周日晚间，伯里在美版公众号 Substack 上发文称，特斯拉的“估值高得离谱”。此前，他披露了针对英伟达和 Palantir 的做空。“特斯拉的市值如今被离谱地高估了，而且这种状况...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202512012337179524f09f&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4543":"AI","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202512012337179524f09f&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2588779141","content_text":"北京时间 12 月 1 日，据《商业内幕》报道，电影《大空头》原型人物迈克尔・伯里（Michael Burry）正在向全球科技巨头宣战。在怼完英伟达后，他现在又将矛头指向了埃隆・马斯克（Elon Musk）。▲ 伯里上周日晚间，伯里在美版公众号 Substack 上发文称，特斯拉的“估值高得离谱”。此前，他披露了针对英伟达和 Palantir 的做空。“特斯拉的市值如今被离谱地高估了，而且这种状况已持续很长时间。”伯里表示。他预计马斯克价值 1 万亿美元的薪酬方案将继续稀释该公司股票。伯里还表示：“顺带说一句，埃隆的拥趸们一开始全力押注电动汽车，直到竞争对手出现；随后又全力押注自动驾驶，直到竞争对手出现；现在又全力押注机器人，直到竞争对手出现为止。”这并不是伯里第一次把矛头对准特斯拉。2021 年，这位投资者曾做空价值 5.3 亿美元的特斯拉股票，但几个月后就平仓离场。伯里之后告诉 CNBC，称这笔操作“只是一次交易”。尽管特斯拉股价年初因马斯克入主美国政府效率部出现短暂震荡，但该公司今年以来股价仍上涨了 11%，因为投资者对该公司推出自动驾驶出租车表示欢迎。马斯克也已对特斯拉的批评者和做空者予以反击，并预测这家电动汽车制造商将成为全球市值最高的公司。截至发稿，特斯拉尚未就此置评。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLL":1.5,"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLA":1.5,"UFO":0.6,"DXYZ":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":499253046330072,"gmtCreate":1762912907733,"gmtModify":1762912909889,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"王朗也不太喜欢诸葛亮的品行","listText":"王朗也不太喜欢诸葛亮的品行","text":"王朗也不太喜欢诸葛亮的品行","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/499253046330072","repostId":"2582554316","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2582554316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1762903878,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2582554316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-12 07:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"段永平回应为何不买特斯拉股票：不喜欢马斯克品行","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2582554316","media":"DoNews","summary":"快科技11月12日消息，在最近一档谈话节目中，步步高创始人、知名投资人段永平被问及特斯拉股票投资时，给出了明确的否定答案。段永平还表示电动车的生意不会太好，差异化很小，特斯拉做出了差异，但大部分电动车生意很艰苦。特斯拉的案例再次证明，即便公司具备技术优势，若经营者品行与行业特性不符合其投资原则，段永平仍会坚决回避，这种“有所不为”的定力或许也是其投资生涯少犯错误的关键。","content":"<html><body><article><p>快科技11月12日消息，在最近一档谈话节目中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002251\">步步高</a>创始人、知名投资人段永平被问及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股票投资时，给出了明确的否定答案。</p><p><strong>“马斯克这个人是厉害，他有很多想法，也确实是很先进的，但是投资我觉得我比较难”</strong>段永平坦言，自己的投资逻辑本质是“与公司经营者做朋友”。</p><p>而马斯克的行事风格让他难以建立信任——“<strong>我不想跟他做朋友，哪怕给我钱我也不干</strong>”。</p><p>“马斯克有些东西很有道理，有些东西很没道理，你不知道哪一条先出来。”</p><p><strong>段永平还表示电动车的生意不会太好，差异化很小</strong>，特斯拉做出了差异，但大部分电动车生意很艰苦。</p><p>特斯拉的案例再次证明，即便公司具备<span>技术优势</span>，若经营者品行与行业特性不符合其投资原则，段永平仍会坚决回避，这种“有所不为”的定力或许也是其投资生涯少犯错误的关键。</p><p>本文转载自快科技，转载目的在于传递更多信息，并不代表本站赞同其观点和对其真实性负责。如涉及作品内容、版权和其它问题，请联系快科技通知我方删除，我方将在收到通知后第一时间删除内容！本文只提供参考并不构成任何投资及应用建议。本站拥有对此声明的最终解释权。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>段永平回应为何不买特斯拉股票：不喜欢马斯克品行</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251112074025a6f2e420&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4555":"新能源车","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU2462157665.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL 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A2"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251112074025a6f2e420&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2582554316","content_text":"快科技11月12日消息，在最近一档谈话节目中，步步高创始人、知名投资人段永平被问及特斯拉股票投资时，给出了明确的否定答案。“马斯克这个人是厉害，他有很多想法，也确实是很先进的，但是投资我觉得我比较难”段永平坦言，自己的投资逻辑本质是“与公司经营者做朋友”。而马斯克的行事风格让他难以建立信任——“我不想跟他做朋友，哪怕给我钱我也不干”。“马斯克有些东西很有道理，有些东西很没道理，你不知道哪一条先出来。”段永平还表示电动车的生意不会太好，差异化很小，特斯拉做出了差异，但大部分电动车生意很艰苦。特斯拉的案例再次证明，即便公司具备技术优势，若经营者品行与行业特性不符合其投资原则，段永平仍会坚决回避，这种“有所不为”的定力或许也是其投资生涯少犯错误的关键。本文转载自快科技，转载目的在于传递更多信息，并不代表本站赞同其观点和对其真实性负责。如涉及作品内容、版权和其它问题，请联系快科技通知我方删除，我方将在收到通知后第一时间删除内容！本文只提供参考并不构成任何投资及应用建议。本站拥有对此声明的最终解释权。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLL":1.5,"UFO":0.6,"TSYW.SI":0.6,"DXYZ":1.5,"TSLA":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":499237730968312,"gmtCreate":1762909627802,"gmtModify":1762910421267,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"不看看自己是什么品行，还有，不男不女的狗又出来叫了","listText":"不看看自己是什么品行，还有，不男不女的狗又出来叫了","text":"不看看自己是什么品行，还有，不男不女的狗又出来叫了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/499237730968312","repostId":"2582554316","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2582554316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1762903878,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2582554316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-12 07:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"段永平回应为何不买特斯拉股票：不喜欢马斯克品行","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2582554316","media":"DoNews","summary":"快科技11月12日消息，在最近一档谈话节目中，步步高创始人、知名投资人段永平被问及特斯拉股票投资时，给出了明确的否定答案。段永平还表示电动车的生意不会太好，差异化很小，特斯拉做出了差异，但大部分电动车生意很艰苦。特斯拉的案例再次证明，即便公司具备技术优势，若经营者品行与行业特性不符合其投资原则，段永平仍会坚决回避，这种“有所不为”的定力或许也是其投资生涯少犯错误的关键。","content":"<html><body><article><p>快科技11月12日消息，在最近一档谈话节目中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002251\">步步高</a>创始人、知名投资人段永平被问及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股票投资时，给出了明确的否定答案。</p><p><strong>“马斯克这个人是厉害，他有很多想法，也确实是很先进的，但是投资我觉得我比较难”</strong>段永平坦言，自己的投资逻辑本质是“与公司经营者做朋友”。</p><p>而马斯克的行事风格让他难以建立信任——“<strong>我不想跟他做朋友，哪怕给我钱我也不干</strong>”。</p><p>“马斯克有些东西很有道理，有些东西很没道理，你不知道哪一条先出来。”</p><p><strong>段永平还表示电动车的生意不会太好，差异化很小</strong>，特斯拉做出了差异，但大部分电动车生意很艰苦。</p><p>特斯拉的案例再次证明，即便公司具备<span>技术优势</span>，若经营者品行与行业特性不符合其投资原则，段永平仍会坚决回避，这种“有所不为”的定力或许也是其投资生涯少犯错误的关键。</p><p>本文转载自快科技，转载目的在于传递更多信息，并不代表本站赞同其观点和对其真实性负责。如涉及作品内容、版权和其它问题，请联系快科技通知我方删除，我方将在收到通知后第一时间删除内容！本文只提供参考并不构成任何投资及应用建议。本站拥有对此声明的最终解释权。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>段永平回应为何不买特斯拉股票：不喜欢马斯克品行</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251112074025a6f2e420&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4555":"新能源车","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU2462157665.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL 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A2"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251112074025a6f2e420&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2582554316","content_text":"快科技11月12日消息，在最近一档谈话节目中，步步高创始人、知名投资人段永平被问及特斯拉股票投资时，给出了明确的否定答案。“马斯克这个人是厉害，他有很多想法，也确实是很先进的，但是投资我觉得我比较难”段永平坦言，自己的投资逻辑本质是“与公司经营者做朋友”。而马斯克的行事风格让他难以建立信任——“我不想跟他做朋友，哪怕给我钱我也不干”。“马斯克有些东西很有道理，有些东西很没道理，你不知道哪一条先出来。”段永平还表示电动车的生意不会太好，差异化很小，特斯拉做出了差异，但大部分电动车生意很艰苦。特斯拉的案例再次证明，即便公司具备技术优势，若经营者品行与行业特性不符合其投资原则，段永平仍会坚决回避，这种“有所不为”的定力或许也是其投资生涯少犯错误的关键。本文转载自快科技，转载目的在于传递更多信息，并不代表本站赞同其观点和对其真实性负责。如涉及作品内容、版权和其它问题，请联系快科技通知我方删除，我方将在收到通知后第一时间删除内容！本文只提供参考并不构成任何投资及应用建议。本站拥有对此声明的最终解释权。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLL":1.5,"UFO":0.6,"TSYW.SI":0.6,"DXYZ":1.5,"TSLA":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":211289833709720,"gmtCreate":1692609530561,"gmtModify":1692609531852,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"新款M3并未使用一体压铸技术","listText":"新款M3并未使用一体压铸技术","text":"新款M3并未使用一体压铸技术","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/211289833709720","repostId":"2361548083","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2361548083","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1692584741,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2361548083?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-08-21 10:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉新款Model 3曝光 20万元左右","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2361548083","media":"中关村在线","summary":"特斯拉正在研发新款Model 3汽车，预计将于今年下半年正式上市。根据最新消息，新款Model 3将搭载HW3.5硬件，而非先前传闻的HW4.0。同时，所有雷达设备已被移除。 新款Model 3在制造过程中采用了一体化铸造技术，减少了线束的使用并引入了更多新型材料，这使得其整车制造成本明显低于上一代车型。因此，预计新款Model 3的定价将保持在人民币20万元左右。","content":"<html><body><article><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>正在研发新款Model 3汽车，预计将于今年下半年正式上市。根据最新消息，新款Model 3将搭载HW3.5硬件，而非先前传闻的HW4.0。同时，所有雷达设备已被移除。 新款Model 3在制造过程中采用了一体化铸造技术，减少了线束的使用并引入了更多新型材料，这使得其整车制造成本明显低于上一代车型。因此，预计新款Model 3的定价将保持在人民币20万元左右。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉新款Model 3曝光 20万元左右\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-08-21 10:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023082110512284280cfd&s=b><strong>中关村在线</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特斯拉正在研发新款Model 3汽车，预计将于今年下半年正式上市。根据最新消息，新款Model 3将搭载HW3.5硬件，而非先前传闻的HW4.0。同时，所有雷达设备已被移除。 新款Model 3在制造过程中采用了一体化铸造技术，减少了线束的使用并引入了更多新型材料，这使得其整车制造成本明显低于上一代车型。因此，预计新款Model 3的定价将保持在人民币20万元左右。</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023082110512284280cfd&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) 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(USD) ACC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023082110512284280cfd&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2361548083","content_text":"特斯拉正在研发新款Model 3汽车，预计将于今年下半年正式上市。根据最新消息，新款Model 3将搭载HW3.5硬件，而非先前传闻的HW4.0。同时，所有雷达设备已被移除。 新款Model 3在制造过程中采用了一体化铸造技术，减少了线束的使用并引入了更多新型材料，这使得其整车制造成本明显低于上一代车型。因此，预计新款Model 3的定价将保持在人民币20万元左右。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1,"TSLL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3517783924542835","authorId":"3517783924542835","name":"木子123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f06710696533aee2fef8f0941b96bc","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3517783924542835","idStr":"3517783924542835"},"content":"现在可入特斯拉吗？做多","text":"现在可入特斯拉吗？做多","html":"现在可入特斯拉吗？做多"},{"author":{"id":"3517783924542835","authorId":"3517783924542835","name":"木子123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f06710696533aee2fef8f0941b96bc","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3517783924542835","idStr":"3517783924542835"},"content":"目前可入吗这个价格？","text":"目前可入吗这个价格？","html":"目前可入吗这个价格？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":518802271650504,"gmtCreate":1767689918813,"gmtModify":1767689921569,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"觉得自己很牛，相信自己的判断就卖房做空，哪里来的那么多废话","listText":"觉得自己很牛，相信自己的判断就卖房做空，哪里来的那么多废话","text":"觉得自己很牛，相信自己的判断就卖房做空，哪里来的那么多废话","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/518802271650504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":487889049903144,"gmtCreate":1760140857958,"gmtModify":1760145344704,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不男不女的又开始嘤嘤乱吠","listText":"不男不女的又开始嘤嘤乱吠","text":"不男不女的又开始嘤嘤乱吠","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/487889049903144","repostId":"2574033172","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2574033172","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"The most recognized names in North America, Europe and Asia rely on MT Newswires to power their applications. Better news, better service, better price.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"MT Newswires Live","id":"1092851196","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3002d84abbd5ace3c99397c7f95b8d4e"},"pubTimestamp":1760106913,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2574033172?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-10 22:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's AI Valuation Starting to Get Unlocked, Wedbush Says<blockquote>韦德布什表示，特斯拉的人工智能估值开始解锁</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2574033172","media":"MT Newswires Live","summary":"Tesla's  artificial intelligence valuation is beginning to get unlocked, with China set to be a source of strength for the firm, Wedbush said in a note Thursday.\"The march to an AI driven valuation for TSLA over the next 6-9 months has now begun,\" the report said.Full Self-Driving technology and autonomous penetration of its installed base and the acceleration of the Cybercab project in the US will be the \"golden goose\" for Tesla, the note added.Tesla could reach a $2 trillion valuation early 2026 in a bull case scenario and $3 trillion by the end of 2026 as full scale volume production begins, it said.The report also said the China story is starting to improve \"markedly\" for Tesla, which should provide a tailwind into 2026.Wedbush kept its outperform rating and $600 price target.Price: 437.51, Change: +1.97, Percent Change: +0.45","content":"<p><html><body> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>'s (TSLA) artificial intelligence valuation is beginning to get unlocked, with China set to be a source of strength for the firm, Wedbush said in a note Thursday.</p><p><blockquote><html><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>韦德布什在周四的一份报告中表示，特斯拉（TSLA）的人工智能估值开始释放，中国将成为该公司的力量来源。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>\"The march to an AI driven valuation for TSLA over the next 6-9 months has now begun,\" the report said.</p><p><blockquote>报告称：“特斯拉在未来6-9个月内向人工智能驱动估值的进军现已开始。”</blockquote></p><p>Full Self-Driving technology and autonomous penetration of its installed base and the acceleration of the Cybercab project in the US will be the \"golden goose\" for Tesla, the note added.</p><p><blockquote>报告补充说，全自动驾驶技术及其安装基础的自动渗透以及美国Cybercab项目的加速将成为特斯拉的“金鹅”。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla could reach a $2 trillion valuation early 2026 in a bull case scenario and $3 trillion by the end of 2026 as full scale volume production begins, it said.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，在牛市情况下，特斯拉的估值可能会在2026年初达到2万亿美元，随着全面量产的开始，到2026年底将达到3万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>The report also said the China story is starting to improve \"markedly\" for Tesla, which should provide a tailwind into 2026.</p><p><blockquote>该报告还表示，特斯拉的情况开始“显着”改善，这应该会为2026年带来推动力。</blockquote></p><p>Wedbush kept its outperform rating and $600 price target.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush维持跑赢大盘评级和600美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p>Price: 437.51, Change: +1.97, Percent Change: +0.45</p><p><blockquote>价格：437.51，变动：+1.97，变动百分比：+0.45</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"mtnewswires_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's AI Valuation Starting to Get Unlocked, Wedbush Says<blockquote>韦德布什表示，特斯拉的人工智能估值开始解锁</blockquote></title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's AI Valuation Starting to Get Unlocked, Wedbush Says<blockquote>韦德布什表示，特斯拉的人工智能估值开始解锁</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092851196\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3002d84abbd5ace3c99397c7f95b8d4e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">MT Newswires Live </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2025-10-10 22:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>'s (TSLA) artificial intelligence valuation is beginning to get unlocked, with China set to be a source of strength for the firm, Wedbush said in a note Thursday.</p><p><blockquote><html><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>韦德布什在周四的一份报告中表示，特斯拉（TSLA）的人工智能估值开始释放，中国将成为该公司的力量来源。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>\"The march to an AI driven valuation for TSLA over the next 6-9 months has now begun,\" the report said.</p><p><blockquote>报告称：“特斯拉在未来6-9个月内向人工智能驱动估值的进军现已开始。”</blockquote></p><p>Full Self-Driving technology and autonomous penetration of its installed base and the acceleration of the Cybercab project in the US will be the \"golden goose\" for Tesla, the note added.</p><p><blockquote>报告补充说，全自动驾驶技术及其安装基础的自动渗透以及美国Cybercab项目的加速将成为特斯拉的“金鹅”。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla could reach a $2 trillion valuation early 2026 in a bull case scenario and $3 trillion by the end of 2026 as full scale volume production begins, it said.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，在牛市情况下，特斯拉的估值可能会在2026年初达到2万亿美元，随着全面量产的开始，到2026年底将达到3万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>The report also said the China story is starting to improve \"markedly\" for Tesla, which should provide a tailwind into 2026.</p><p><blockquote>该报告还表示，特斯拉的情况开始“显着”改善，这应该会为2026年带来推动力。</blockquote></p><p>Wedbush kept its outperform rating and $600 price target.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush维持跑赢大盘评级和600美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p>Price: 437.51, Change: +1.97, Percent Change: +0.45</p><p><blockquote>价格：437.51，变动：+1.97，变动百分比：+0.45</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH 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13:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"马斯克发图：OpenAI和xAI，你想让AI走哪条路？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2413253686","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"他的人工智能初创公司xAI将在两周内发布Grok聊天机器人的V1.5版本。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>当地时间周三晚间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>CEO埃隆·马斯克在X上发帖称，他的人工智能初创公司xAI将在两周内发布Grok聊天机器人的V1.5版本。</p><p>马斯克写道：“也许现在已经清楚了，为什么xAI的Grok如此重要。现在它还远远不够完美，但会迅速改进。V1.5将在2周内发布。不顾批评，严格追求真理，从未像现在这样重要。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e655884d31307887a8e81bdd43ba676\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"207\"/></p><p>马斯克随后发布了一张图片，上面是一位少年站在一个岔路口，一条道路通向万丈深渊和无边黑暗，这是OpenAI和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>Gemini所代表的“觉醒种族主义”道路，另一条道路通向光明的未来，这是xAI代表的“追求最大真理”之路。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3319b41203388fc8b41523e30aba0a23\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"569\"/></p><p>马斯克写道：“你想让AI走哪条路？”</p></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克发图：OpenAI和xAI，你想让AI走哪条路？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-22 13:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-02-22/doc-inaiwsyk2187351.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>当地时间周三晚间，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克在X上发帖称，他的人工智能初创公司xAI将在两周内发布Grok聊天机器人的V1.5版本。马斯克写道：“也许现在已经清楚了，为什么xAI的Grok如此重要。现在它还远远不够完美，但会迅速改进。V1.5将在2周内发布。不顾批评，严格追求真理，从未像现在这样重要。”马斯克随后发布了一张图片，上面是一位少年站在一个岔路口，一条道路通向万丈深渊和无边黑暗，这是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-02-22/doc-inaiwsyk2187351.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2a1616037e43e16e002c471dd2f16af","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-02-22/doc-inaiwsyk2187351.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2413253686","content_text":"当地时间周三晚间，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克在X上发帖称，他的人工智能初创公司xAI将在两周内发布Grok聊天机器人的V1.5版本。马斯克写道：“也许现在已经清楚了，为什么xAI的Grok如此重要。现在它还远远不够完美，但会迅速改进。V1.5将在2周内发布。不顾批评，严格追求真理，从未像现在这样重要。”马斯克随后发布了一张图片，上面是一位少年站在一个岔路口，一条道路通向万丈深渊和无边黑暗，这是OpenAI和谷歌Gemini所代表的“觉醒种族主义”道路，另一条道路通向光明的未来，这是xAI代表的“追求最大真理”之路。马斯克写道：“你想让AI走哪条路？”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":1.1,"TSLA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3494327166562785","authorId":"3494327166562785","name":"小朋油","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3494327166562785","idStr":"3494327166562785"},"content":"你好哥，你感觉股价最近还会不会上去","text":"你好哥，你感觉股价最近还会不会上去","html":"你好哥，你感觉股价最近还会不会上去"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":139940995,"gmtCreate":1621586990617,"gmtModify":1621590962249,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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但是没这个技术和心态。要不你买个远期的put试试"},{"author":{"id":"3453936493680799","authorId":"3453936493680799","name":"理性长期复利","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3453936493680799","idStr":"3453936493680799"},"content":"就是不停拉高，在某一个高点引爆，重复08年的场景。","text":"就是不停拉高，在某一个高点引爆，重复08年的场景。","html":"就是不停拉高，在某一个高点引爆，重复08年的场景。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845454422,"gmtCreate":1636363179002,"gmtModify":1636497055961,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>你要卖就卖，这是你的自由，但是你嚷嚷个啥劲","listText":"<a 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20:31","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉盘前跌超5%，传上海工厂12月Model Y将减产超20%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121299313","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月5日，$特斯拉(TSLA)$盘前一度跌超5%报184.83美元，有媒体援引知情人士在周一表示，特斯拉计划将其上海工厂12月的Model Y产量较11月削减逾20%。不过媒体无法立即确定这家电动汽车巨头12月份削减最新生产计划的具体原因。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>12月5日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前一度跌超5%报184.83美元，有媒体援引知情人士在周一表示，特斯拉计划将其上海工厂12月的Model Y产量较11月削减逾20%。不过媒体无法立即确定这家电动汽车巨头12月份削减最新生产计划的具体原因。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a17e25fa34bbc34db2891f49f2798a6e\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"835\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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20:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>12月5日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前一度跌超5%报184.83美元，有媒体援引知情人士在周一表示，特斯拉计划将其上海工厂12月的Model Y产量较11月削减逾20%。不过媒体无法立即确定这家电动汽车巨头12月份削减最新生产计划的具体原因。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a17e25fa34bbc34db2891f49f2798a6e\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"835\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl 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Y产量较11月削减逾20%。不过媒体无法立即确定这家电动汽车巨头12月份削减最新生产计划的具体原因。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3016,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":494433482638152,"gmtCreate":1761729598248,"gmtModify":1761729600870,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"开完特斯拉，你再让我去花钱买34c，x3q5glc我是不愿意花这个冤枉钱的，这个就叫产品力","listText":"开完特斯拉，你再让我去花钱买34c，x3q5glc我是不愿意花这个冤枉钱的，这个就叫产品力","text":"开完特斯拉，你再让我去花钱买34c，x3q5glc我是不愿意花这个冤枉钱的，这个就叫产品力","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/494433482638152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":959,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691771250,"gmtCreate":1640252183970,"gmtModify":1640252183970,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>跟随聪明的钱，B.Dog","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>跟随聪明的钱，B.Dog","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$跟随聪明的钱，B.Dog","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691771250","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"content":"那我和机器人对骂了两天，感觉说话思路是真人","text":"那我和机器人对骂了两天，感觉说话思路是真人","html":"那我和机器人对骂了两天，感觉说话思路是真人"},{"author":{"id":"3474273072027739","authorId":"3474273072027739","name":"卡尔洋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5bb61521c38f41b9c93c2497a4237ef","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3474273072027739","idStr":"3474273072027739"},"content":"那是个机器人账号，都是机翻英文的","text":"那是个机器人账号，都是机翻英文的","html":"那是个机器人账号，都是机翻英文的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":488790134173808,"gmtCreate":1760360977097,"gmtModify":1760361170516,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"狗屁不通","listText":"狗屁不通","text":"狗屁不通","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/488790134173808","repostId":"2575052409","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2575052409","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1760358608,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2575052409?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-13 20:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉创纪录销量难改背后“隐忧”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2575052409","media":"美股研究社","summary":"鉴于特斯拉在销量方面仍面临困境，专家预计，随着下一季度数据出炉，其过去 12 个月的自由现金流将进一步下滑。受税收抵免到期前的购车潮推动，本季度本应是特斯拉的 “爆发季”，但实际表现并未达预期。核心观点风险提示目前面临的最大风险是特斯拉在技术上取得突破性进展。结论特斯拉是一家估值严重过高的公司。","content":"<html><body><article><p>【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLcPgia7DNCvbkZ2UW7icKia7iaEBYibLoBH9m2tvI6bkqbEh7NtGPic58BHcsA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1#imgIndex=2\"/><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>2024年第三季度业绩</strong></p><p>从交付量来看，特斯拉第三季度表现创下纪录 —— 汽车交付量接近 50 万辆，储能部署量也同步刷新纪录。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdL8qlORyTA1Z4qNCZ7wsSsRedIBHRB4LtlIYCVx33juVfPK2ZLRkyKhHwxIeppT6AdcdJECZHqDRQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p>然而，这些数据背后有两个关键细节需重点关注：首先，该季度交付<span>量比</span>产量高出 10% 以上。由于 9 月底美国联邦电动汽车税收抵免政策即将到期，消费者急于购车以享受优惠，特斯拉借此消化了过剩库存。这一需求驱动因素具有一次性属性，而公司并未相应扩大产能，也印证了这一点。</p><p>其次，特斯拉该季度产量为 44.7 万辆，同比实际下降了数个百分点，这表明公司基本面仍处于萎缩状态。在专家看来，另一大风险在于，包括 Cybertruck 在内的 “其他车型” 销量依然低迷，这意味着特斯拉在核心车型之外完全未能实现业务增长。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLcrVAEs2bhwIEUP4FfvianI8UkwWsmGS8QGt9FUCfIVia1npfInK1SOWWQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1#imgIndex=4\"/><p><strong>特斯拉财务状况</strong></p><p>从财务角度看，相较于其估值，特斯拉的财务表现持续疲软。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdL8qlORyTA1Z4qNCZ7wsSsR2FEopib0ToWsBA6qMUVukwmZFCMqGVTpewd38uP1MjuYGMtIjibkLLkQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p>目前特斯拉市值为 1.36 万亿美元，而过去 12 个月（TTM）的<span>自由现金流</span>（FCF）仅为 55 亿美元，自由现金流收益率仅为 0.4%。值得注意的是，该公司过去 12 个月自由现金流中，约 45% 来自 2024 年第三季度（即刚公布业绩的季度）。鉴于特斯拉在销量方面仍面临困境，专家预计，随着下一季度数据出炉，其过去 12 个月的自由现金流将进一步下滑。</p><p>从基本面来看，专家认为特斯拉已触及市场天花板。自 2023 年以来，公司销量未实现增长，市场份额也在持续下滑。欧洲市场仍是该公司的长期薄弱环节。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLczbSMU66CbrBjDq7jpr5zsiclLE4DkRGuL9TVwK0r2tbvibNaKK4AzxHw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1#imgIndex=6\"/><p><strong>特斯拉的 “其他业务”</strong></p><p>投资者在为特斯拉 0.4% 的自由现金流收益率争论时，常会提及该公司的另外两项业务 —— 全自动驾驶（FSD）与机器人业务。但实际情况却不容乐观：</p><p>在自动驾驶领域，特斯拉不仅远未实现早在 2018 年就设定的目标，如今已落后于竞争对手。此前有测试显示，特斯拉尝试 “横跨美国” 的自动驾驶行驶，出发后不到 60 英里就发生了事故；而在奥斯汀地区，特斯拉的自动驾驶车辆仍需配备安全驾驶员，尚未实现完全自动化。截至目前，该公司尚未实现任何 “无安全驾驶员” 的全自动驾驶里程记录。</p><p>反观竞争对手 Waymo，其全自动驾驶里程已达 1 亿英里，付费行程也突破 1000 万次。特斯拉在自动驾驶技术上的屡次失败，已导致美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）对其展开调查；美国参议员也基于该公司自动驾驶车辆在铁路道口的不良表现，呼吁启动更多调查。</p><p>实际结果表明，我们看不到特斯拉自动驾驶业务成为独立核心收入来源的可能性。专家认为，特斯拉的技术路线存在根本性错误 —— 由于未采用激光雷达（LiDAR）技术，其自动驾驶发展已陷入瓶颈。</p><p>再看 Optimus 机器人业务，该业务的估值难度较大。参考其主要竞争对手 Figure AI（市值 390 亿美元）进行估值，即便给予特斯拉机器人业务两倍于 Figure AI 的估值（即 800 亿美元），这一规模也仅占特斯拉当前市值的 6%。由此可见，特斯拉现有业务完全支撑不起其当前市值。</p><p>受税收抵免到期前的购车潮推动，本季度本应是特斯拉的 “爆发季”，但实际表现并未达预期。如今市场环境愈发严峻，特斯拉不仅难以实现低个位数增长，反而可能面临业务进一步萎缩。考虑到其高昂的估值，这一前景令人担忧。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLciaWMQ0QPFPFmoNQtcVWichXhCuZB2x0BS879mNfIl6Lz8r5HIRlqLj6w/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>核心观点风险提示</strong></p><p><strong>目前面临的最大风险是特斯拉在技术上取得突破性进展。</strong>例如，若该公司在人形机器人或全自动驾驶领域实现突破，可能迅速在重大市场中获得领先地位，并随之带来可观收入。这或将为其当前估值提供合理性支撑，也可能提升其未来为股东创造回报的能力。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdJ3W4gruZ6lz6pj1cuQvXYHzFTgv6zBDxN3hjm1PtXPLNKCakI3eyW9mPqibvjCvXwDia0vaM9Nht8w/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>结论</strong></p><p><strong>特斯拉是一家估值严重过高的公司。尽管其市值高达 1.3 万亿美元，且近期公布了创纪录的销量，但这一销量高峰是由税收抵免政策到期推动的一次性现象，即便如此，公司的增长率仍极为疲软。</strong></p><p>与此同时，特斯拉并无任何可支撑增长的核心业务板块：全自动驾驶业务比原计划落后 7 年，且大幅落后于 Waymo；Optimus 机器人业务也并未显著领先于 Figure AI，即便假设其具备领先优势，也无法支撑 1.3 万亿美元的市值。</p><p>【如需和我们交流可后台回复“进群”加社群】</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdJlQNwm5fnHWnfblqB1P5B3gLTjg6j6dT5IyOFclcldYqPQickKMUqicdaXvibXdEb4OibV97CAwGO6TQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1#imgIndex=7\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/dR7EpbvovdLt0fplojSTcIf4vTY1fP5f5VhIsL3QI5iaHIficMHKVzpaxPOM0yB24Zgs1PJlLHXFs5UXKRic0iaTxA/640?wx_fmt=gif&amp;from=appmsg&amp;tp=webp&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1#imgIndex=9\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉创纪录销量难改背后“隐忧”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉创纪录销量难改背后“隐忧”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-13 20:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025101320384494c68681&s=b><strong>美股研究社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】特斯拉2024年第三季度业绩从交付量来看，特斯拉第三季度表现创下纪录 —— 汽车交付量接近 50 万辆，储能部署量也同步刷新纪录。然而，这些数据背后有两个关键细节需重点关注：首先，该季度交付量比产量高出 10% 以上。由于 9 月底美国联邦电动汽车税收抵免政策即将到期，消费者急于购车以享受优惠，特斯拉借此消化了过剩库存。这一需求驱动因素具有一次性属性，而公司并未...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025101320384494c68681&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU1066051811.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","TSYW.SI":"TESLA 3xLongSG261006","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025101320384494c68681&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2575052409","content_text":"【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】特斯拉2024年第三季度业绩从交付量来看，特斯拉第三季度表现创下纪录 —— 汽车交付量接近 50 万辆，储能部署量也同步刷新纪录。然而，这些数据背后有两个关键细节需重点关注：首先，该季度交付量比产量高出 10% 以上。由于 9 月底美国联邦电动汽车税收抵免政策即将到期，消费者急于购车以享受优惠，特斯拉借此消化了过剩库存。这一需求驱动因素具有一次性属性，而公司并未相应扩大产能，也印证了这一点。其次，特斯拉该季度产量为 44.7 万辆，同比实际下降了数个百分点，这表明公司基本面仍处于萎缩状态。在专家看来，另一大风险在于，包括 Cybertruck 在内的 “其他车型” 销量依然低迷，这意味着特斯拉在核心车型之外完全未能实现业务增长。特斯拉财务状况从财务角度看，相较于其估值，特斯拉的财务表现持续疲软。目前特斯拉市值为 1.36 万亿美元，而过去 12 个月（TTM）的自由现金流（FCF）仅为 55 亿美元，自由现金流收益率仅为 0.4%。值得注意的是，该公司过去 12 个月自由现金流中，约 45% 来自 2024 年第三季度（即刚公布业绩的季度）。鉴于特斯拉在销量方面仍面临困境，专家预计，随着下一季度数据出炉，其过去 12 个月的自由现金流将进一步下滑。从基本面来看，专家认为特斯拉已触及市场天花板。自 2023 年以来，公司销量未实现增长，市场份额也在持续下滑。欧洲市场仍是该公司的长期薄弱环节。特斯拉的 “其他业务”投资者在为特斯拉 0.4% 的自由现金流收益率争论时，常会提及该公司的另外两项业务 —— 全自动驾驶（FSD）与机器人业务。但实际情况却不容乐观：在自动驾驶领域，特斯拉不仅远未实现早在 2018 年就设定的目标，如今已落后于竞争对手。此前有测试显示，特斯拉尝试 “横跨美国” 的自动驾驶行驶，出发后不到 60 英里就发生了事故；而在奥斯汀地区，特斯拉的自动驾驶车辆仍需配备安全驾驶员，尚未实现完全自动化。截至目前，该公司尚未实现任何 “无安全驾驶员” 的全自动驾驶里程记录。反观竞争对手 Waymo，其全自动驾驶里程已达 1 亿英里，付费行程也突破 1000 万次。特斯拉在自动驾驶技术上的屡次失败，已导致美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）对其展开调查；美国参议员也基于该公司自动驾驶车辆在铁路道口的不良表现，呼吁启动更多调查。实际结果表明，我们看不到特斯拉自动驾驶业务成为独立核心收入来源的可能性。专家认为，特斯拉的技术路线存在根本性错误 —— 由于未采用激光雷达（LiDAR）技术，其自动驾驶发展已陷入瓶颈。再看 Optimus 机器人业务，该业务的估值难度较大。参考其主要竞争对手 Figure AI（市值 390 亿美元）进行估值，即便给予特斯拉机器人业务两倍于 Figure AI 的估值（即 800 亿美元），这一规模也仅占特斯拉当前市值的 6%。由此可见，特斯拉现有业务完全支撑不起其当前市值。受税收抵免到期前的购车潮推动，本季度本应是特斯拉的 “爆发季”，但实际表现并未达预期。如今市场环境愈发严峻，特斯拉不仅难以实现低个位数增长，反而可能面临业务进一步萎缩。考虑到其高昂的估值，这一前景令人担忧。核心观点风险提示目前面临的最大风险是特斯拉在技术上取得突破性进展。例如，若该公司在人形机器人或全自动驾驶领域实现突破，可能迅速在重大市场中获得领先地位，并随之带来可观收入。这或将为其当前估值提供合理性支撑，也可能提升其未来为股东创造回报的能力。结论特斯拉是一家估值严重过高的公司。尽管其市值高达 1.3 万亿美元，且近期公布了创纪录的销量，但这一销量高峰是由税收抵免政策到期推动的一次性现象，即便如此，公司的增长率仍极为疲软。与此同时，特斯拉并无任何可支撑增长的核心业务板块：全自动驾驶业务比原计划落后 7 年，且大幅落后于 Waymo；Optimus 机器人业务也并未显著领先于 Figure AI，即便假设其具备领先优势，也无法支撑 1.3 万亿美元的市值。【如需和我们交流可后台回复“进群”加社群】","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.5,"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLL":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":950,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":480456549647128,"gmtCreate":1758322648429,"gmtModify":1758322650887,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"理性的分析不如长期持有","listText":"理性的分析不如长期持有","text":"理性的分析不如长期持有","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/480456549647128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":809,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":437804399546784,"gmtCreate":1747920701716,"gmtModify":1747920703784,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"特斯拉每次发布会都会跌一周，然后创新高","listText":"特斯拉每次发布会都会跌一周，然后创新高","text":"特斯拉每次发布会都会跌一周，然后创新高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/437804399546784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":202180146765864,"gmtCreate":1690398491069,"gmtModify":1690398492313,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"挺住，明年就会降息","listText":"挺住，明年就会降息","text":"挺住，明年就会降息","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/202180146765864","repostId":"1117691111","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1117691111","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1690396575,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117691111?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-07-27 02:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"鲍威尔：未排除9月加息可能，今年不降息，美联储内部不再预测美国会陷入衰退","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117691111","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"鲍威尔：如果数据有保障，美联储9月可能再次加息。鲍威尔称，今年不会降息，但多名FOMC成员希望明年多次降息。通胀和加息鲍威尔重申：美联储致力于实现双重使命，致力于让通胀回到2%。鲍威尔说，降低通胀可能意味着低于趋势的经济增长。鲍威尔称，名义工资增长已经显示出一些放松的迹象。房地产市场在谈到美国房地产市场时，鲍威尔说，住房部门有所复苏，但仍远低于2022年水平。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>鲍威尔说，美国的通胀已经在一定程度上得到缓解，不过将通胀回落到2%的过程还有很长的路要走。劳动力市场依然非常紧张。美联储工作人员不再预测美国经济会陷入衰退。他强调，当前政策已有限制性，利率水平应维持在限制性水平相当长时间，未来的利率会在逐次会议上做出决定，今年不会降息，多位官员支持明年多次降息。对于9月的会议，他认为需要看到更多数据后再做出决定，如果数据有支撑，9月可能再加息。利率调整和缩表是独立的，美联储可能在缩表的同时降息。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">7月26日周三，在美联储议息会议结束之后，美联储主席鲍威尔召开新闻发布会。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在发布会上，鲍威尔就美联储的政策路径、美国通胀、美国经济、劳动力市场等问题发表看法。</p><p><strong>通胀已有缓解但比预期更有韧性，但距离2%的目标还有很长的路要走</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关于美国的通胀，鲍威尔重申：</p><blockquote>美联储致力于实现双重使命，致力于让通胀回到2%。没有价格稳定就无法实现强劲的劳动力市场。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>鲍威尔说，美国的通胀已经在一定程度上得到了缓解，不过，将通胀回落到2%的过程还有很长的路要走。他承认，事实证明通胀比预期更有韧性。他认为，过去通胀一再高于预期，但这种情况可能会改变。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔说，高通胀率带来了重大困难，长期通胀预期仍然“根深蒂固”：</p><blockquote>美联储高度关注通胀给该机构双重使命带来的风险，FOMC能做的最好事情就是恢复价格稳定。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔认为，随着时间推移，未来美国经济增长更强劲，这可能会加剧通胀，或需政策回应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，鲍威尔认为，俄罗斯退出黑海粮食协议预计不会对美国食品通胀产生重大影响。</p><p><strong>利率已达限制性水平，并将维持较长时间，年内不会降息</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关于本轮加息周期，鲍威尔称，美联储的货币政策正在发挥作用，符合预期。不过，加息的全部影响还没显现，需要时间才能实现全部效果。他强调，FOMC将考虑累积的政策紧缩效应和滞后性，但是对于滞后期的维持时间存在很多不确定性，也存在争议。他认为，当前的实际联邦基金利率已经处于有意义的正区间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>他表示，美联储预计到2025年左右才能看到通胀回到2%的政策目标水平，美联储可以在通胀达到2%之前停止加息。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他表示，当前，完全有理由放慢加息速度，<strong>FOMC将对未来的加息进程依然采取依赖数据的做法，将继续逐次会议作出是否加息的决定</strong>：</p><blockquote>我们尚未就任何未来会议做出决定。更渐进的加息步伐并不意味着每隔一次会议加息一次。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>鲍威尔称，FOMC认为当前的货币政策是具有限制性的，需要将利率保持在较高的水平“一段时间”，需要继续抗通胀，这也需要坚持一段时间：</strong></p><blockquote><strong>政策已经具有限制性的，在今天之后更是如此。FOMC可以保持耐心和坚定。</strong></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>他认为，随着货币立场越来越具有限制性，面临的风险也在增加，现在的问题在于如何权衡做得太多或太少的风险。鲍威尔称：</strong></p><blockquote><strong>如果我们看到通胀得到可靠缓解，就不需要采取紧缩措施。如果我们看到通胀稳定地下降，我们可以将利率降至中性水平，然后在某个时候降至中性水平以下。</strong></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔表示，6月CPI的放缓令人鼓舞，但只是一个月份的数据，通胀报告比预期稍好。他认为，总体通胀率下降这么多是一件好事，这将增强公众对通胀下降的认知。但现在，核心通胀仍然相当高，希望看到核心通胀率下降。他再次强调，核心通胀是一个更好的指标，可以预示整体通胀的走势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔也表示：</p><blockquote>我们将谨慎行事，不过度解读单一通胀数据，将会关注此后的CPI数据是否会再次录得回落。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔特别强调，数据的整体性很重要，特别关注通胀进展。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔表示：</p><blockquote><strong>如果数据有支撑，美联储9月可能再次加息。</strong>到9月FOMC会议还有8周时间，我们将一直关注到那时的所有数据。我们不希望提供前瞻性指导。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>关于缩表，鲍威尔说，利率调整和缩表是独立的，美联储可能在缩表的同时降息。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔说，在判断何时降息时，需要同时考虑通胀水平和通胀下降的速度：</p><blockquote><strong>对于未来会议，甚至明年的前景存在很多不确定性。我认为今年不会降息，降息与否将取决于我们对通胀回落至目标的信心程度。不过，部分FOMC委员预计明年将降息。</strong></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔称，本次会议存在不同观点，市场将在会议纪要中看到这一点。</p><p><strong>美联储内部不再认为美国经济会陷入衰退，软着陆路径依然存在</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在谈到美国经济时，鲍威尔说，美国经济活动以温和的速度扩张，消费者支出增长较年初放缓。与6月份对美国经济“温和”的评价相比，美联储对经济活动的评价有所提高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他强调：</p><blockquote>我们看到的经济疲软并非因为失业率上升，而是因为职位空缺和离职减少。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分行业来看，鲍威尔认为，一些行业一直反映出紧缩的影响。此外，整体经济显示信贷条件正在收紧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔说，降低通胀可能意味着把经济增速压低至低于趋势的水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔说，美国经济具备韧性是“一件好事”，但是，从边际上看，更强劲的经济增长可能导致更多的通胀。他认为，美国经济增长将在未来加强。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>他表示，美联储工作人员不再预测美国经济会陷入衰退：</strong></p><blockquote><strong>我的基本假设是可以在失业率没有大幅增加的情况下实现2%的目标。</strong></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔重申，实现一定程度的通胀下降而不引发失业激增，即实现“软着陆”是一种理想的结果，但在现实中，劳动市场的疲软仍然是可能的结果。他说：</p><blockquote>我不会用“乐观”这个词，但存在实现软着陆的路径。即使出现软着陆，劳动力状况仍会有所减弱。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔说，FOMC希望看到供应瓶颈缓解，希望看到适度或温和水平的经济增长。</p><p><strong>劳动力市场趋于平衡的趋势愈发明显，但仍需进一步放松</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在劳动力市场方面，鲍威尔认为，劳动力供需持续出现平衡的迹象越来越明显。他认为，美国劳动力市场仍然非常紧张，就业增长依然强劲，劳动力需求仍然明显超过供应，因此，劳动力市场条件需要进一步放松。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔称，名义工资增长已经显示出一些放松的迹象，不过实际工资的增长是一件好事。这也意味着，市场一度十分担心的“工资-通胀螺旋”可能未必会出现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔称，美联储我们工资增长幅度与2%的目标通胀率相一致。他强调，美联储并非特别针对工资通胀。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔说，FOMC正在寻找劳动市场广泛疲软的迹象，最新报告显示私营部门就业市场出现了放缓。</p><p><strong>较高的利率拖累房地产市场，银行业已经稳定</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在谈到美国房地产市场时，鲍威尔说，住房部门有所复苏，但仍远低于2022年水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他认为，恢复房地产市场的平衡还有很长的路走，现有住房供应非常紧张。不过，较高的利率已经拖慢了房地产市场的增长速度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关于银行业动荡，鲍威尔称，很难梳理出银行业动荡对经济的影响，美联储正在谨慎监测银行业的情况，当前，美国银行业已经稳定下来。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在谈到银行业危机时，鲍威尔说，美国的银行现在正努力确保对使用贴现窗口做好准备，美联储也鼓励银行这样做。</p><p><strong>市场反应及评论</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔召开新闻发布会期间，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数回吐早前涨幅并转跌。其中，标普500指数下跌0.2%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.4%。道琼斯工业平均指数仍然保持上涨，但涨幅有限。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">债券收益率下跌，其中两年期美国收益率对美联储即将采取的行动敏感，跌至4.84%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有“新美联储通讯社”之称的华尔街日报记者在新闻发布会后发表的文章中称，美联储内部的分歧依然没有得到弥合：</p><blockquote>一些美联储官员表示，他们可能更愿意在9月份的会议上再次加息。但认为美联储加息影响尚未完全显现的官员更有可能倾向于等到11月或12月再决定是否适合进行下一次加息。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对冲基金公司Citadel全球固定收益经济研究主管Angel Ubide认为，随着美联储进入本轮加息周期的收尾阶段，放慢加息步伐是有意义的：</p><blockquote>对于紧缩周期的最后一公里，随着时间的推移延长它是有意义的。美联储正在微调，他们也不知道确切的目的地在哪里。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"> 宏利投资管理公司全球首席经济学家Frances Donald认为，美联储开始降息的门槛很高，需要实际数据，这些数据可能会在年底实现，届时美联储可能有信心更好地控制通胀：</p><blockquote>我们现在认为美联储处于长期‘鹰派立场’。在我们的基本假设下，他们的下一步行动可能是降息，但要到2024年才能看到。 尽管如此，鲍威尔别无选择，只能继续警告市场可能会加息，以免鼓励市场过早消化降息并重新点燃通胀预期。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">资产管理公司Carson Wealth的分析师Sonu Varghese表示，鲍威尔保留了他的选择余地，但美联储不太可能再次加息。Varghese预计，9月会议前的通胀报告将显示物价走弱。他表示：</p><blockquote>美联储希望看到通胀下降，尤其是核心通胀，但他们不一定需要看到经济走弱。</blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>鲍威尔：未排除9月加息可能，今年不降息，美联储内部不再预测美国会陷入衰退</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n鲍威尔：未排除9月加息可能，今年不降息，美联储内部不再预测美国会陷入衰退\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-27 02:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3694160><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>鲍威尔说，美国的通胀已经在一定程度上得到缓解，不过将通胀回落到2%的过程还有很长的路要走。劳动力市场依然非常紧张。美联储工作人员不再预测美国经济会陷入衰退。他强调，当前政策已有限制性，利率水平应维持在限制性水平相当长时间，未来的利率会在逐次会议上做出决定，今年不会降息，多位官员支持明年多次降息。对于9月的会议，他认为需要看到更多数据后再做出决定，如果数据有支撑，9月可能再加息。利率调整和缩表是独立...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3694160\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/251d111e0dc44a538f8fafbe2a786ec6","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3694160","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117691111","content_text":"鲍威尔说，美国的通胀已经在一定程度上得到缓解，不过将通胀回落到2%的过程还有很长的路要走。劳动力市场依然非常紧张。美联储工作人员不再预测美国经济会陷入衰退。他强调，当前政策已有限制性，利率水平应维持在限制性水平相当长时间，未来的利率会在逐次会议上做出决定，今年不会降息，多位官员支持明年多次降息。对于9月的会议，他认为需要看到更多数据后再做出决定，如果数据有支撑，9月可能再加息。利率调整和缩表是独立的，美联储可能在缩表的同时降息。7月26日周三，在美联储议息会议结束之后，美联储主席鲍威尔召开新闻发布会。在发布会上，鲍威尔就美联储的政策路径、美国通胀、美国经济、劳动力市场等问题发表看法。通胀已有缓解但比预期更有韧性，但距离2%的目标还有很长的路要走关于美国的通胀，鲍威尔重申：美联储致力于实现双重使命，致力于让通胀回到2%。没有价格稳定就无法实现强劲的劳动力市场。鲍威尔说，美国的通胀已经在一定程度上得到了缓解，不过，将通胀回落到2%的过程还有很长的路要走。他承认，事实证明通胀比预期更有韧性。他认为，过去通胀一再高于预期，但这种情况可能会改变。鲍威尔说，高通胀率带来了重大困难，长期通胀预期仍然“根深蒂固”：美联储高度关注通胀给该机构双重使命带来的风险，FOMC能做的最好事情就是恢复价格稳定。鲍威尔认为，随着时间推移，未来美国经济增长更强劲，这可能会加剧通胀，或需政策回应。此外，鲍威尔认为，俄罗斯退出黑海粮食协议预计不会对美国食品通胀产生重大影响。利率已达限制性水平，并将维持较长时间，年内不会降息关于本轮加息周期，鲍威尔称，美联储的货币政策正在发挥作用，符合预期。不过，加息的全部影响还没显现，需要时间才能实现全部效果。他强调，FOMC将考虑累积的政策紧缩效应和滞后性，但是对于滞后期的维持时间存在很多不确定性，也存在争议。他认为，当前的实际联邦基金利率已经处于有意义的正区间。他表示，美联储预计到2025年左右才能看到通胀回到2%的政策目标水平，美联储可以在通胀达到2%之前停止加息。他表示，当前，完全有理由放慢加息速度，FOMC将对未来的加息进程依然采取依赖数据的做法，将继续逐次会议作出是否加息的决定：我们尚未就任何未来会议做出决定。更渐进的加息步伐并不意味着每隔一次会议加息一次。鲍威尔称，FOMC认为当前的货币政策是具有限制性的，需要将利率保持在较高的水平“一段时间”，需要继续抗通胀，这也需要坚持一段时间：政策已经具有限制性的，在今天之后更是如此。FOMC可以保持耐心和坚定。他认为，随着货币立场越来越具有限制性，面临的风险也在增加，现在的问题在于如何权衡做得太多或太少的风险。鲍威尔称：如果我们看到通胀得到可靠缓解，就不需要采取紧缩措施。如果我们看到通胀稳定地下降，我们可以将利率降至中性水平，然后在某个时候降至中性水平以下。鲍威尔表示，6月CPI的放缓令人鼓舞，但只是一个月份的数据，通胀报告比预期稍好。他认为，总体通胀率下降这么多是一件好事，这将增强公众对通胀下降的认知。但现在，核心通胀仍然相当高，希望看到核心通胀率下降。他再次强调，核心通胀是一个更好的指标，可以预示整体通胀的走势。鲍威尔也表示：我们将谨慎行事，不过度解读单一通胀数据，将会关注此后的CPI数据是否会再次录得回落。鲍威尔特别强调，数据的整体性很重要，特别关注通胀进展。鲍威尔表示：如果数据有支撑，美联储9月可能再次加息。到9月FOMC会议还有8周时间，我们将一直关注到那时的所有数据。我们不希望提供前瞻性指导。关于缩表，鲍威尔说，利率调整和缩表是独立的，美联储可能在缩表的同时降息。鲍威尔说，在判断何时降息时，需要同时考虑通胀水平和通胀下降的速度：对于未来会议，甚至明年的前景存在很多不确定性。我认为今年不会降息，降息与否将取决于我们对通胀回落至目标的信心程度。不过，部分FOMC委员预计明年将降息。鲍威尔称，本次会议存在不同观点，市场将在会议纪要中看到这一点。美联储内部不再认为美国经济会陷入衰退，软着陆路径依然存在在谈到美国经济时，鲍威尔说，美国经济活动以温和的速度扩张，消费者支出增长较年初放缓。与6月份对美国经济“温和”的评价相比，美联储对经济活动的评价有所提高。他强调：我们看到的经济疲软并非因为失业率上升，而是因为职位空缺和离职减少。分行业来看，鲍威尔认为，一些行业一直反映出紧缩的影响。此外，整体经济显示信贷条件正在收紧。鲍威尔说，降低通胀可能意味着把经济增速压低至低于趋势的水平。鲍威尔说，美国经济具备韧性是“一件好事”，但是，从边际上看，更强劲的经济增长可能导致更多的通胀。他认为，美国经济增长将在未来加强。他表示，美联储工作人员不再预测美国经济会陷入衰退：我的基本假设是可以在失业率没有大幅增加的情况下实现2%的目标。鲍威尔重申，实现一定程度的通胀下降而不引发失业激增，即实现“软着陆”是一种理想的结果，但在现实中，劳动市场的疲软仍然是可能的结果。他说：我不会用“乐观”这个词，但存在实现软着陆的路径。即使出现软着陆，劳动力状况仍会有所减弱。鲍威尔说，FOMC希望看到供应瓶颈缓解，希望看到适度或温和水平的经济增长。劳动力市场趋于平衡的趋势愈发明显，但仍需进一步放松在劳动力市场方面，鲍威尔认为，劳动力供需持续出现平衡的迹象越来越明显。他认为，美国劳动力市场仍然非常紧张，就业增长依然强劲，劳动力需求仍然明显超过供应，因此，劳动力市场条件需要进一步放松。鲍威尔称，名义工资增长已经显示出一些放松的迹象，不过实际工资的增长是一件好事。这也意味着，市场一度十分担心的“工资-通胀螺旋”可能未必会出现。鲍威尔称，美联储我们工资增长幅度与2%的目标通胀率相一致。他强调，美联储并非特别针对工资通胀。鲍威尔说，FOMC正在寻找劳动市场广泛疲软的迹象，最新报告显示私营部门就业市场出现了放缓。较高的利率拖累房地产市场，银行业已经稳定在谈到美国房地产市场时，鲍威尔说，住房部门有所复苏，但仍远低于2022年水平。他认为，恢复房地产市场的平衡还有很长的路走，现有住房供应非常紧张。不过，较高的利率已经拖慢了房地产市场的增长速度。关于银行业动荡，鲍威尔称，很难梳理出银行业动荡对经济的影响，美联储正在谨慎监测银行业的情况，当前，美国银行业已经稳定下来。在谈到银行业危机时，鲍威尔说，美国的银行现在正努力确保对使用贴现窗口做好准备，美联储也鼓励银行这样做。市场反应及评论鲍威尔召开新闻发布会期间，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数回吐早前涨幅并转跌。其中，标普500指数下跌0.2%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.4%。道琼斯工业平均指数仍然保持上涨，但涨幅有限。债券收益率下跌，其中两年期美国收益率对美联储即将采取的行动敏感，跌至4.84%。有“新美联储通讯社”之称的华尔街日报记者在新闻发布会后发表的文章中称，美联储内部的分歧依然没有得到弥合：一些美联储官员表示，他们可能更愿意在9月份的会议上再次加息。但认为美联储加息影响尚未完全显现的官员更有可能倾向于等到11月或12月再决定是否适合进行下一次加息。对冲基金公司Citadel全球固定收益经济研究主管Angel Ubide认为，随着美联储进入本轮加息周期的收尾阶段，放慢加息步伐是有意义的：对于紧缩周期的最后一公里，随着时间的推移延长它是有意义的。美联储正在微调，他们也不知道确切的目的地在哪里。 宏利投资管理公司全球首席经济学家Frances Donald认为，美联储开始降息的门槛很高，需要实际数据，这些数据可能会在年底实现，届时美联储可能有信心更好地控制通胀：我们现在认为美联储处于长期‘鹰派立场’。在我们的基本假设下，他们的下一步行动可能是降息，但要到2024年才能看到。 尽管如此，鲍威尔别无选择，只能继续警告市场可能会加息，以免鼓励市场过早消化降息并重新点燃通胀预期。资产管理公司Carson Wealth的分析师Sonu Varghese表示，鲍威尔保留了他的选择余地，但美联储不太可能再次加息。Varghese预计，9月会议前的通胀报告将显示物价走弱。他表示：美联储希望看到通胀下降，尤其是核心通胀，但他们不一定需要看到经济走弱。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":1.1,".IXIC":1.1,".DJI":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696712406,"gmtCreate":1640768958036,"gmtModify":1640770578260,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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