Johnsonk的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Johnsonk

Johnsonk

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IP属地：上海

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0勋章

11-18

做空把自己做傻了吧

11-14

Replying to @hhl10086:你这个想法可要一直保持住啊//@hhl10086:涨上去本来就是因为情绪的推动，你要想想特斯拉真有这么强的基本面吗？

11-11

拜登政府下的补涨而已，四年打压的严重低估，确实脱离了基本面

11-08

想的太保守

特朗普重返白宫，特斯拉股价会涨到1000美元？

10-24

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 股神们都回来了

10-10

大众的期待已经是全世界都是特斯拉的无人出租车了，他来一句五年后运营。股价直接-20%

10-09

Replying to @雁门关向东二万五千里:电池发布会跌8%，AI发布会跌8%，机器人发布会跌14%，历历在目的血的教训啊//@雁门关向东二万五千里:成败就在这一两天了。

09-19

[真香][真香][真香][真香] 你先把这一阵撑过去再说吧

08-20

必然，有什么是必然的？

07-17

为什么要和他们一起跌？

07-11

满足你

07-10

不要预测，拿着不动就行了

07-09

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 上个厕所，拉链都没解开，就绿了？

07-04

英伟达400的时候你也是不敢追吧？

07-03

Replying to @小猪1:按你的逻辑，我15买的，是不是25就该止盈了？//@小猪1:是不是该止盈了

07-02

退到一边去，别影响我们数钱

06-17

跟着你的感觉走

06-06

时间没到，不谈遗憾

05-16

他会看个锤子

05-14

放心了，上次预测完就创新高

即将大跌70%！《大空头》“恐怖”预测特斯拉股价，核心电动汽车业务正面临挑战

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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14:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特朗普重返白宫，特斯拉股价会涨到1000美元？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199719175","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫，而 $特斯拉$ 可能成为最大的受益者之一。特朗普成功重返白宫，特斯拉可能在新政府的政策下获益良多，这也可能推动特斯拉股价再创新高，甚至可能冲向1000美元。特斯拉股价达到约1000美元的数学依据让我们来看看特斯拉股价如何从当前水平上涨超过3倍。如果实现的话，特斯拉的净利润可能达到约1000亿美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫，而 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a> 可能成为最大的受益者之一。特斯拉的CEO埃隆·马斯克在特朗普的2024年竞选中发挥了关键作用，不仅提供了大量的财务支持，还积极参与竞选宣传，利用他的社交媒体平台X为特朗普造势。</p><p>特朗普成功重返白宫，特斯拉可能在新政府的政策下获益良多，这也可能推动特斯拉股价再创新高，甚至可能冲向1000美元。一下是可能的原因：</p><p>特斯拉本就是一个增长强劲的公司，专注于电动车、人工智能和可再生能源等高潜力领域。在特朗普的领导下，税收减免、宽松的货币政策、减少监管和更有利的贸易政策可能会帮助特斯拉充分释放潜力。</p><p>对特斯拉来说，想象一下以下可能性：新的工厂可能获得直接资金支持，帮助扩大本土制造；关税政策可能保护特斯拉免受国外竞争；在人工智能和其他前沿项目方面，特斯拉可能面临更少的监管压力。</p><p>特朗普上台后，还可能推出更多直接或间接有利于特斯拉的创新政策。其他大型科技股在特朗普总统任期内也可能获益。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dac26e9e0b6b9f1152c49655a47d92f5\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>特斯拉在“无补贴”环境中的优势</strong></p><p>特朗普可能会减少甚至取消对电动车的政府补贴，但特斯拉的高效运营可能让它在没有补贴的情况下依旧占据优势。</p><p>虽然目前的7500美元税收抵免对特斯拉有所帮助，但相比竞争对手，特斯拉在没有补贴的市场中依旧具备生存优势。例如，Rivian过去两个季度每季度亏损14亿美元，可能难以应对没有补贴的市场。而通用汽车和福特等美国制造商在2024年第二季度售出的电动车仅有22,000辆，占总销量近70万辆的极小比例，规模经济和成本效率不及特斯拉。</p><p>特斯拉是电动车行业内成本最低的生产商之一，这要归功于其覆盖从电池生产到软件开发的垂直整合运营模式。特斯拉的超级工厂带来规模经济效应，降低了成本，同时公司在广告上的开支极少，这也提升了利润率。</p><p>尽管行业面临挑战，特斯拉在2024年第三季度依然实现了7%的调整后利润率；在2022年电动车市场更为有利的环境下，这一利润率达到了惊人的17%。在没有补贴的情况下，特斯拉对成本的控制和盈利能力使其在效率低下的竞争对手中脱颖而出，使其有可能在自由市场环境中继续成长。</p><p><strong>特朗普的贸易政策利好特斯拉</strong></p><p>特朗普的贸易政策可能进一步提升特斯拉在竞争中的优势。目前美国对中国电动车征收100%的关税，而特朗普提议将对在墨西哥生产并进口到美国的中国电动车关税提高到200%。这将对试图进入美国市场的中国汽车制造商造成重大障碍。尽管特朗普邀请这些公司在美国建厂，但由于它们在中国的投资巨大且美国的监管环境难以预测，落地美国的可能性不大。随着关税的提高，特斯拉的本土生产和成本效率将使它在国内外竞争对手中占据显著优势。此外，随着特朗普推动取消对美国产品的关税并强调更对称的贸易政策，特斯拉也可能进军更多国际市场。</p><p><strong>特斯拉的可再生能源业务可能受益于制造和基础设施的推动</strong></p><p>尽管特朗普支持增加化石燃料生产，但我们认为这不会影响可再生能源市场。事实上，特斯拉的可再生能源业务，主要集中在储能解决方案上，可能会因此受益。原因在于特朗普一直支持削减税收，特别是对美国本土制造商的税收优惠，而这将利好在美国生产大部分储能系统和电池的特斯拉。在当前阶段，推广可再生能源的关键在于降低成本和扩大规模，而特朗普的政策可能正好有助于实现这一点。</p><p><strong>可再生能源项目的更优政策</strong></p><p>更有利的法规可能加速可再生能源项目的推进，而如果基础设施投资增加、能源政策更加关注电网现代化，需求也可能上升。特斯拉可能成为最大的受益者，因为其电池在能量密度、成本和软件集成方面具有竞争优势，而其在生产能力上的大量投入进一步巩固了其地位。即便没有政府支持，特斯拉的能源业务也能在不断增长的可再生能源市场中获利。深入了解特斯拉快速增长的清洁能源业务。</p><p><strong>减少人工智能和未来项目的繁文缛节</strong></p><p>此外，鼓励人工智能和自动驾驶技术发展的政策可能会对特斯拉有利。特朗普对减少监管的关注可能会减少自动驾驶测试和部署的限制，加快特斯拉全自动驾驶技术的发展。特斯拉的全自动驾驶用户已累计行驶超过13亿英里，这是自动驾驶领域的关键指标，因为更多的行驶里程为改进机器学习算法提供了宝贵数据。在监管障碍减少的情况下，特斯拉可以加速推出自动驾驶功能，巩固其在自动驾驶市场的领先地位。过去几年中，特斯拉自动驾驶事故引发了NHTSA（美国国家公路交通安全管理局）的调查，发现了自动驾驶“判断”上的缺陷。尽管这些问题仍需解决，但特朗普的政策可能帮助特斯拉加快全自动驾驶技术的改进。</p><p><strong>特斯拉股价达到约1000美元的数学依据</strong></p><p>让我们来看看特斯拉股价如何从当前水平上涨超过3倍。到2025年，特斯拉的收入可能会从约1200亿美元增长到2029年的4000亿美元，主要得益于电动车出货量的增加、进入新国际市场和清洁能源销售的增长。这个年均增长率约为35%，与公司2018年至2023年的平均增长率大致相当。</p><p>虽然特斯拉2023年的净利润率峰值约为15%，但有可能进一步提升到25%左右。如何做到？税收优惠、更多软件销售、更高效的生产和规模经济。如果实现的话，特斯拉的净利润可能达到约1000亿美元。</p><p>以当前的市盈率75倍来看，基于2025年预计收益和280美元的股价，如果到2029年市盈率缩减至30倍左右，那么特斯拉的市值可能达到约3万亿美元。假设股本约为32亿股，这意味着每股价格将超过930美元。</p><p></p><p><img 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class=\"title\">\n特朗普重返白宫，特斯拉股价会涨到1000美元？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-11-08 14:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫，而 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a> 可能成为最大的受益者之一。特斯拉的CEO埃隆·马斯克在特朗普的2024年竞选中发挥了关键作用，不仅提供了大量的财务支持，还积极参与竞选宣传，利用他的社交媒体平台X为特朗普造势。</p><p>特朗普成功重返白宫，特斯拉可能在新政府的政策下获益良多，这也可能推动特斯拉股价再创新高，甚至可能冲向1000美元。一下是可能的原因：</p><p>特斯拉本就是一个增长强劲的公司，专注于电动车、人工智能和可再生能源等高潜力领域。在特朗普的领导下，税收减免、宽松的货币政策、减少监管和更有利的贸易政策可能会帮助特斯拉充分释放潜力。</p><p>对特斯拉来说，想象一下以下可能性：新的工厂可能获得直接资金支持，帮助扩大本土制造；关税政策可能保护特斯拉免受国外竞争；在人工智能和其他前沿项目方面，特斯拉可能面临更少的监管压力。</p><p>特朗普上台后，还可能推出更多直接或间接有利于特斯拉的创新政策。其他大型科技股在特朗普总统任期内也可能获益。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dac26e9e0b6b9f1152c49655a47d92f5\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>特斯拉在“无补贴”环境中的优势</strong></p><p>特朗普可能会减少甚至取消对电动车的政府补贴，但特斯拉的高效运营可能让它在没有补贴的情况下依旧占据优势。</p><p>虽然目前的7500美元税收抵免对特斯拉有所帮助，但相比竞争对手，特斯拉在没有补贴的市场中依旧具备生存优势。例如，Rivian过去两个季度每季度亏损14亿美元，可能难以应对没有补贴的市场。而通用汽车和福特等美国制造商在2024年第二季度售出的电动车仅有22,000辆，占总销量近70万辆的极小比例，规模经济和成本效率不及特斯拉。</p><p>特斯拉是电动车行业内成本最低的生产商之一，这要归功于其覆盖从电池生产到软件开发的垂直整合运营模式。特斯拉的超级工厂带来规模经济效应，降低了成本，同时公司在广告上的开支极少，这也提升了利润率。</p><p>尽管行业面临挑战，特斯拉在2024年第三季度依然实现了7%的调整后利润率；在2022年电动车市场更为有利的环境下，这一利润率达到了惊人的17%。在没有补贴的情况下，特斯拉对成本的控制和盈利能力使其在效率低下的竞争对手中脱颖而出，使其有可能在自由市场环境中继续成长。</p><p><strong>特朗普的贸易政策利好特斯拉</strong></p><p>特朗普的贸易政策可能进一步提升特斯拉在竞争中的优势。目前美国对中国电动车征收100%的关税，而特朗普提议将对在墨西哥生产并进口到美国的中国电动车关税提高到200%。这将对试图进入美国市场的中国汽车制造商造成重大障碍。尽管特朗普邀请这些公司在美国建厂，但由于它们在中国的投资巨大且美国的监管环境难以预测，落地美国的可能性不大。随着关税的提高，特斯拉的本土生产和成本效率将使它在国内外竞争对手中占据显著优势。此外，随着特朗普推动取消对美国产品的关税并强调更对称的贸易政策，特斯拉也可能进军更多国际市场。</p><p><strong>特斯拉的可再生能源业务可能受益于制造和基础设施的推动</strong></p><p>尽管特朗普支持增加化石燃料生产，但我们认为这不会影响可再生能源市场。事实上，特斯拉的可再生能源业务，主要集中在储能解决方案上，可能会因此受益。原因在于特朗普一直支持削减税收，特别是对美国本土制造商的税收优惠，而这将利好在美国生产大部分储能系统和电池的特斯拉。在当前阶段，推广可再生能源的关键在于降低成本和扩大规模，而特朗普的政策可能正好有助于实现这一点。</p><p><strong>可再生能源项目的更优政策</strong></p><p>更有利的法规可能加速可再生能源项目的推进，而如果基础设施投资增加、能源政策更加关注电网现代化，需求也可能上升。特斯拉可能成为最大的受益者，因为其电池在能量密度、成本和软件集成方面具有竞争优势，而其在生产能力上的大量投入进一步巩固了其地位。即便没有政府支持，特斯拉的能源业务也能在不断增长的可再生能源市场中获利。深入了解特斯拉快速增长的清洁能源业务。</p><p><strong>减少人工智能和未来项目的繁文缛节</strong></p><p>此外，鼓励人工智能和自动驾驶技术发展的政策可能会对特斯拉有利。特朗普对减少监管的关注可能会减少自动驾驶测试和部署的限制，加快特斯拉全自动驾驶技术的发展。特斯拉的全自动驾驶用户已累计行驶超过13亿英里，这是自动驾驶领域的关键指标，因为更多的行驶里程为改进机器学习算法提供了宝贵数据。在监管障碍减少的情况下，特斯拉可以加速推出自动驾驶功能，巩固其在自动驾驶市场的领先地位。过去几年中，特斯拉自动驾驶事故引发了NHTSA（美国国家公路交通安全管理局）的调查，发现了自动驾驶“判断”上的缺陷。尽管这些问题仍需解决，但特朗普的政策可能帮助特斯拉加快全自动驾驶技术的改进。</p><p><strong>特斯拉股价达到约1000美元的数学依据</strong></p><p>让我们来看看特斯拉股价如何从当前水平上涨超过3倍。到2025年，特斯拉的收入可能会从约1200亿美元增长到2029年的4000亿美元，主要得益于电动车出货量的增加、进入新国际市场和清洁能源销售的增长。这个年均增长率约为35%，与公司2018年至2023年的平均增长率大致相当。</p><p>虽然特斯拉2023年的净利润率峰值约为15%，但有可能进一步提升到25%左右。如何做到？税收优惠、更多软件销售、更高效的生产和规模经济。如果实现的话，特斯拉的净利润可能达到约1000亿美元。</p><p>以当前的市盈率75倍来看，基于2025年预计收益和280美元的股价，如果到2029年市盈率缩减至30倍左右，那么特斯拉的市值可能达到约3万亿美元。假设股本约为32亿股，这意味着每股价格将超过930美元。</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f6feca6be3ee6075241d27246c31abe8\" alt=\"\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8a3f9092c8c117fef41c284fde2d22c8","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199719175","content_text":"唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫，而 特斯拉 可能成为最大的受益者之一。特斯拉的CEO埃隆·马斯克在特朗普的2024年竞选中发挥了关键作用，不仅提供了大量的财务支持，还积极参与竞选宣传，利用他的社交媒体平台X为特朗普造势。特朗普成功重返白宫，特斯拉可能在新政府的政策下获益良多，这也可能推动特斯拉股价再创新高，甚至可能冲向1000美元。一下是可能的原因：特斯拉本就是一个增长强劲的公司，专注于电动车、人工智能和可再生能源等高潜力领域。在特朗普的领导下，税收减免、宽松的货币政策、减少监管和更有利的贸易政策可能会帮助特斯拉充分释放潜力。对特斯拉来说，想象一下以下可能性：新的工厂可能获得直接资金支持，帮助扩大本土制造；关税政策可能保护特斯拉免受国外竞争；在人工智能和其他前沿项目方面，特斯拉可能面临更少的监管压力。特朗普上台后，还可能推出更多直接或间接有利于特斯拉的创新政策。其他大型科技股在特朗普总统任期内也可能获益。特斯拉在“无补贴”环境中的优势特朗普可能会减少甚至取消对电动车的政府补贴，但特斯拉的高效运营可能让它在没有补贴的情况下依旧占据优势。虽然目前的7500美元税收抵免对特斯拉有所帮助，但相比竞争对手，特斯拉在没有补贴的市场中依旧具备生存优势。例如，Rivian过去两个季度每季度亏损14亿美元，可能难以应对没有补贴的市场。而通用汽车和福特等美国制造商在2024年第二季度售出的电动车仅有22,000辆，占总销量近70万辆的极小比例，规模经济和成本效率不及特斯拉。特斯拉是电动车行业内成本最低的生产商之一，这要归功于其覆盖从电池生产到软件开发的垂直整合运营模式。特斯拉的超级工厂带来规模经济效应，降低了成本，同时公司在广告上的开支极少，这也提升了利润率。尽管行业面临挑战，特斯拉在2024年第三季度依然实现了7%的调整后利润率；在2022年电动车市场更为有利的环境下，这一利润率达到了惊人的17%。在没有补贴的情况下，特斯拉对成本的控制和盈利能力使其在效率低下的竞争对手中脱颖而出，使其有可能在自由市场环境中继续成长。特朗普的贸易政策利好特斯拉特朗普的贸易政策可能进一步提升特斯拉在竞争中的优势。目前美国对中国电动车征收100%的关税，而特朗普提议将对在墨西哥生产并进口到美国的中国电动车关税提高到200%。这将对试图进入美国市场的中国汽车制造商造成重大障碍。尽管特朗普邀请这些公司在美国建厂，但由于它们在中国的投资巨大且美国的监管环境难以预测，落地美国的可能性不大。随着关税的提高，特斯拉的本土生产和成本效率将使它在国内外竞争对手中占据显著优势。此外，随着特朗普推动取消对美国产品的关税并强调更对称的贸易政策，特斯拉也可能进军更多国际市场。特斯拉的可再生能源业务可能受益于制造和基础设施的推动尽管特朗普支持增加化石燃料生产，但我们认为这不会影响可再生能源市场。事实上，特斯拉的可再生能源业务，主要集中在储能解决方案上，可能会因此受益。原因在于特朗普一直支持削减税收，特别是对美国本土制造商的税收优惠，而这将利好在美国生产大部分储能系统和电池的特斯拉。在当前阶段，推广可再生能源的关键在于降低成本和扩大规模，而特朗普的政策可能正好有助于实现这一点。可再生能源项目的更优政策更有利的法规可能加速可再生能源项目的推进，而如果基础设施投资增加、能源政策更加关注电网现代化，需求也可能上升。特斯拉可能成为最大的受益者，因为其电池在能量密度、成本和软件集成方面具有竞争优势，而其在生产能力上的大量投入进一步巩固了其地位。即便没有政府支持，特斯拉的能源业务也能在不断增长的可再生能源市场中获利。深入了解特斯拉快速增长的清洁能源业务。减少人工智能和未来项目的繁文缛节此外，鼓励人工智能和自动驾驶技术发展的政策可能会对特斯拉有利。特朗普对减少监管的关注可能会减少自动驾驶测试和部署的限制，加快特斯拉全自动驾驶技术的发展。特斯拉的全自动驾驶用户已累计行驶超过13亿英里，这是自动驾驶领域的关键指标，因为更多的行驶里程为改进机器学习算法提供了宝贵数据。在监管障碍减少的情况下，特斯拉可以加速推出自动驾驶功能，巩固其在自动驾驶市场的领先地位。过去几年中，特斯拉自动驾驶事故引发了NHTSA（美国国家公路交通安全管理局）的调查，发现了自动驾驶“判断”上的缺陷。尽管这些问题仍需解决，但特朗普的政策可能帮助特斯拉加快全自动驾驶技术的改进。特斯拉股价达到约1000美元的数学依据让我们来看看特斯拉股价如何从当前水平上涨超过3倍。到2025年，特斯拉的收入可能会从约1200亿美元增长到2029年的4000亿美元，主要得益于电动车出货量的增加、进入新国际市场和清洁能源销售的增长。这个年均增长率约为35%，与公司2018年至2023年的平均增长率大致相当。虽然特斯拉2023年的净利润率峰值约为15%，但有可能进一步提升到25%左右。如何做到？税收优惠、更多软件销售、更高效的生产和规模经济。如果实现的话，特斯拉的净利润可能达到约1000亿美元。以当前的市盈率75倍来看，基于2025年预计收益和280美元的股价，如果到2029年市盈率缩减至30倍左右，那么特斯拉的市值可能达到约3万亿美元。假设股本约为32亿股，这意味着每股价格将超过930美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363398686359816,"gmtCreate":1729762974241,"gmtModify":1729762975798,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 股神们都回来了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 股神们都回来了","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 股神们都回来了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363398686359816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358548058419216,"gmtCreate":1728544381613,"gmtModify":1728544383758,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大众的期待已经是全世界都是特斯拉的无人出租车了，他来一句五年后运营。股价直接-20%","listText":"大众的期待已经是全世界都是特斯拉的无人出租车了，他来一句五年后运营。股价直接-20%","text":"大众的期待已经是全世界都是特斯拉的无人出租车了，他来一句五年后运营。股价直接-20%","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358548058419216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358207910899952,"gmtCreate":1728471791417,"gmtModify":1728479604016,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying 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@雁门关向东二万五千里:电池发布会跌8%，AI发布会跌8%，机器人发布会跌14%，历历在目的血的教训啊//@雁门关向东二万五千里:成败就在这一两天了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358207910899952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":351153972662392,"gmtCreate":1726753327102,"gmtModify":1726753329171,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[真香][真香][真香][真香] 你先把这一阵撑过去再说吧","listText":"[真香][真香][真香][真香] 你先把这一阵撑过去再说吧","text":"[真香][真香][真香][真香] 你先把这一阵撑过去再说吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351153972662392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":340402319442264,"gmtCreate":1724148130690,"gmtModify":1724148132450,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"必然，有什么是必然的？","listText":"必然，有什么是必然的？","text":"必然，有什么是必然的？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340402319442264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328420688630056,"gmtCreate":1721223920881,"gmtModify":1721223923047,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"为什么要和他们一起跌？","listText":"为什么要和他们一起跌？","text":"为什么要和他们一起跌？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328420688630056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1003,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326476130951208,"gmtCreate":1720707577003,"gmtModify":1720707607838,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"满足你","listText":"满足你","text":"满足你","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326476130951208","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326113383112952,"gmtCreate":1720619130305,"gmtModify":1720619132231,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不要预测，拿着不动就行了","listText":"不要预测，拿着不动就行了","text":"不要预测，拿着不动就行了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326113383112952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":325757085614176,"gmtCreate":1720532053193,"gmtModify":1720532054798,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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上个厕所，拉链都没解开，就绿了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325757085614176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323924243194104,"gmtCreate":1720088912925,"gmtModify":1720088914624,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"英伟达400的时候你也是不敢追吧？","listText":"英伟达400的时候你也是不敢追吧？","text":"英伟达400的时候你也是不敢追吧？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323924243194104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":827,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323538579882144,"gmtCreate":1720011015322,"gmtModify":1720011017706,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying 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13:58","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"即将大跌70%！《大空头》“恐怖”预测特斯拉股价，核心电动汽车业务正面临挑战","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2435554867","media":"金融界","summary":"知名交易员Danny Moses近日再次警示特斯拉股价面临大幅调整的风险。公司业绩承压，股价或难逃下跌命运尽管特斯拉一直在自动驾驶和人工智能领域积极布局，但其核心的电动汽车业务似乎正面临挑战。今年以来，特斯拉股价已经下跌了近31%，市场对其业绩表现的担忧日益加剧。这项调查主要涉及特斯拉在向消费者和投资者传递其汽车自动驾驶能力信息时是否存在误导性陈述。一旦调查结果对特斯拉不利，其股价无疑将遭受沉重打击。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>知名交易员Danny Moses近日再次警示<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股价面临大幅调整的风险。这位曾在2008年金融危机中通过做空次级抵押贷款而成名的《大空头》原型表示，特斯拉目前171美元的股价将最终跌至50美元。Moses认为，埃隆·马斯克在自动驾驶出租车和人工智能等方面的大肆宣传，只是在转移投资者对公司基本面问题的注意力。</p><p>公司业绩承压，股价或难逃下跌命运</p><p>尽管特斯拉一直在自动驾驶和人工智能领域积极布局，但其核心的电动汽车业务似乎正面临挑战。今年以来，特斯拉股价已经下跌了近31%，市场对其业绩表现的担忧日益加剧。Moses指出，特斯拉的交付量不稳定，加上整个行业前景黯淡，这些因素都将对其股价构成压力。他断言，无论特斯拉在\"新科技\"方面取得什么进展，都无法避免股价即将出现的大幅下跌。</p><p>监管合规风险犹存，市值恐进一步缩水</p><p>除了业务基本面的隐忧外，特斯拉还面临着美国司法部的调查。这项调查主要涉及特斯拉在向消费者和投资者传递其汽车自动驾驶能力信息时是否存在误导性陈述。一旦调查结果对特斯拉不利，其股价无疑将遭受沉重打击。Moses认为，考虑到特斯拉当前所面临的种种风险，其合理市值应该在1500亿美元左右，这意味着其股价将下跌至每股50美元的水平，跌幅高达70%以上。</p><p>作为一位经验丰富的交易员，Moses对特斯拉股价的悲观预测值得投资者高度关注。然而，市场瞬息万变，任何预测都存在不确定性。投资者在作出决策时，不仅要关注股价走势，更要深入分析公司基本面和行业前景，以及监管合规等方面的风险。只有全面评估各项因素，才能做出理性的投资选择。</p>\n<div>\n<div>\r\n            责任编辑：磐石\r\n          </div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"jinrongjie_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2024/05/14135840636274.shtml><strong>金融界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>知名交易员Danny Moses近日再次警示特斯拉股价面临大幅调整的风险。这位曾在2008年金融危机中通过做空次级抵押贷款而成名的《大空头》原型表示，特斯拉目前171美元的股价将最终跌至50美元。Moses认为，埃隆·马斯克在自动驾驶出租车和人工智能等方面的大肆宣传，只是在转移投资者对公司基本面问题的注意力。公司业绩承压，股价或难逃下跌命运尽管特斯拉一直在自动驾驶和人工智能领域积极布局，但其核心的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2024/05/14135840636274.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND 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ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2024/05/14135840636274.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2435554867","content_text":"知名交易员Danny Moses近日再次警示特斯拉股价面临大幅调整的风险。这位曾在2008年金融危机中通过做空次级抵押贷款而成名的《大空头》原型表示，特斯拉目前171美元的股价将最终跌至50美元。Moses认为，埃隆·马斯克在自动驾驶出租车和人工智能等方面的大肆宣传，只是在转移投资者对公司基本面问题的注意力。公司业绩承压，股价或难逃下跌命运尽管特斯拉一直在自动驾驶和人工智能领域积极布局，但其核心的电动汽车业务似乎正面临挑战。今年以来，特斯拉股价已经下跌了近31%，市场对其业绩表现的担忧日益加剧。Moses指出，特斯拉的交付量不稳定，加上整个行业前景黯淡，这些因素都将对其股价构成压力。他断言，无论特斯拉在\"新科技\"方面取得什么进展，都无法避免股价即将出现的大幅下跌。监管合规风险犹存，市值恐进一步缩水除了业务基本面的隐忧外，特斯拉还面临着美国司法部的调查。这项调查主要涉及特斯拉在向消费者和投资者传递其汽车自动驾驶能力信息时是否存在误导性陈述。一旦调查结果对特斯拉不利，其股价无疑将遭受沉重打击。Moses认为，考虑到特斯拉当前所面临的种种风险，其合理市值应该在1500亿美元左右，这意味着其股价将下跌至每股50美元的水平，跌幅高达70%以上。作为一位经验丰富的交易员，Moses对特斯拉股价的悲观预测值得投资者高度关注。然而，市场瞬息万变，任何预测都存在不确定性。投资者在作出决策时，不仅要关注股价走势，更要深入分析公司基本面和行业前景，以及监管合规等方面的风险。只有全面评估各项因素，才能做出理性的投资选择。\n\n\r\n            责任编辑：磐石","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":211289833709720,"gmtCreate":1692609530561,"gmtModify":1692609531852,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"新款M3并未使用一体压铸技术","listText":"新款M3并未使用一体压铸技术","text":"新款M3并未使用一体压铸技术","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/211289833709720","repostId":"2361548083","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2361548083","pubTimestamp":1692584741,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2361548083?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-08-21 10:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉新款Model 3曝光 20万元左右","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2361548083","media":"中关村在线","summary":"特斯拉正在研发新款Model 3汽车，预计将于今年下半年正式上市。根据最新消息，新款Model 3将搭载HW3.5硬件，而非先前传闻的HW4.0。同时，所有雷达设备已被移除。 新款Model 3在制造过程中采用了一体化铸造技术，减少了线束的使用并引入了更多新型材料，这使得其整车制造成本明显低于上一代车型。因此，预计新款Model 3的定价将保持在人民币20万元左右。","content":"<html><body><article><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>正在研发新款Model 3汽车，预计将于今年下半年正式上市。根据最新消息，新款Model 3将搭载HW3.5硬件，而非先前传闻的HW4.0。同时，所有雷达设备已被移除。 新款Model 3在制造过程中采用了一体化铸造技术，减少了线束的使用并引入了更多新型材料，这使得其整车制造成本明显低于上一代车型。因此，预计新款Model 3的定价将保持在人民币20万元左右。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉新款Model 3曝光 20万元左右</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉新款Model 3曝光 20万元左右\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-08-21 10:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023082110512284280cfd&s=b><strong>中关村在线</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特斯拉正在研发新款Model 3汽车，预计将于今年下半年正式上市。根据最新消息，新款Model 3将搭载HW3.5硬件，而非先前传闻的HW4.0。同时，所有雷达设备已被移除。 新款Model 3在制造过程中采用了一体化铸造技术，减少了线束的使用并引入了更多新型材料，这使得其整车制造成本明显低于上一代车型。因此，预计新款Model 3的定价将保持在人民币20万元左右。</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023082110512284280cfd&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4527":"明星科技股","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4588":"碎股","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" 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3的定价将保持在人民币20万元左右。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3517783924542835","authorId":"3517783924542835","name":"木子123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f06710696533aee2fef8f0941b96bc","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3517783924542835","authorIdStr":"3517783924542835"},"content":"现在可入特斯拉吗？做多","text":"现在可入特斯拉吗？做多","html":"现在可入特斯拉吗？做多"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":276695901347992,"gmtCreate":1708581204884,"gmtModify":1708581275160,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"当然是觉醒种族主义","listText":"当然是觉醒种族主义","text":"当然是觉醒种族主义","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/276695901347992","repostId":"2413253686","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2413253686","pubTimestamp":1708578120,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2413253686?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-02-22 13:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"马斯克发图：OpenAI和xAI，你想让AI走哪条路？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2413253686","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"他的人工智能初创公司xAI将在两周内发布Grok聊天机器人的V1.5版本。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>当地时间周三晚间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>CEO埃隆·马斯克在X上发帖称，他的人工智能初创公司xAI将在两周内发布Grok聊天机器人的V1.5版本。</p><p>马斯克写道：“也许现在已经清楚了，为什么xAI的Grok如此重要。现在它还远远不够完美，但会迅速改进。V1.5将在2周内发布。不顾批评，严格追求真理，从未像现在这样重要。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e655884d31307887a8e81bdd43ba676\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"207\"/></p><p>马斯克随后发布了一张图片，上面是一位少年站在一个岔路口，一条道路通向万丈深渊和无边黑暗，这是OpenAI和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>Gemini所代表的“觉醒种族主义”道路，另一条道路通向光明的未来，这是xAI代表的“追求最大真理”之路。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3319b41203388fc8b41523e30aba0a23\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"569\"/></p><p>马斯克写道：“你想让AI走哪条路？”</p></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克发图：OpenAI和xAI，你想让AI走哪条路？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2a1616037e43e16e002c471dd2f16af","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-02-22/doc-inaiwsyk2187351.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2413253686","content_text":"当地时间周三晚间，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克在X上发帖称，他的人工智能初创公司xAI将在两周内发布Grok聊天机器人的V1.5版本。马斯克写道：“也许现在已经清楚了，为什么xAI的Grok如此重要。现在它还远远不够完美，但会迅速改进。V1.5将在2周内发布。不顾批评，严格追求真理，从未像现在这样重要。”马斯克随后发布了一张图片，上面是一位少年站在一个岔路口，一条道路通向万丈深渊和无边黑暗，这是OpenAI和谷歌Gemini所代表的“觉醒种族主义”道路，另一条道路通向光明的未来，这是xAI代表的“追求最大真理”之路。马斯克写道：“你想让AI走哪条路？”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3494327166562785","authorId":"3494327166562785","name":"小朋油","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3494327166562785","authorIdStr":"3494327166562785"},"content":"你好哥，你感觉股价最近还会不会上去","text":"你好哥，你感觉股价最近还会不会上去","html":"你好哥，你感觉股价最近还会不会上去"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":139940995,"gmtCreate":1621586990617,"gmtModify":1621590962249,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>近期知道的消息上个礼拜我都说了，最近没有新内幕邮件了，一旦有邮件了，我会来告诉大家的，谢谢","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>近期知道的消息上个礼拜我都说了，最近没有新内幕邮件了，一旦有邮件了，我会来告诉大家的，谢谢","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$近期知道的消息上个礼拜我都说了，最近没有新内幕邮件了，一旦有邮件了，我会来告诉大家的，谢谢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139940995","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1612,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848569719,"gmtCreate":1636013343475,"gmtModify":1636016410851,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>涨那么多，不考虑做空一下么？各位空友","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>涨那么多，不考虑做空一下么？各位空友","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$涨那么多，不考虑做空一下么？各位空友","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848569719","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3475953264104511","authorId":"3475953264104511","name":"不要被情绪支配","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e767791729415062739b544c715d98a","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3475953264104511","authorIdStr":"3475953264104511"},"content":"很多人有这想法 但是没这个技术和心态。要不你买个远期的put试试","text":"很多人有这想法 但是没这个技术和心态。要不你买个远期的put试试","html":"很多人有这想法 但是没这个技术和心态。要不你买个远期的put试试"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845454422,"gmtCreate":1636363179002,"gmtModify":1636497055961,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>你要卖就卖，这是你的自由，但是你嚷嚷个啥劲","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>你要卖就卖，这是你的自由，但是你嚷嚷个啥劲","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$你要卖就卖，这是你的自由，但是你嚷嚷个啥劲","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845454422","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3529277622435398","authorId":"3529277622435398","name":"Computer0010","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3529277622435398","authorIdStr":"3529277622435398"},"content":"嚷嚷也是自由","text":"嚷嚷也是自由","html":"嚷嚷也是自由"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":629394488,"gmtCreate":1670247588744,"gmtModify":1670247590463,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"确实减产","listText":"确实减产","text":"确实减产","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629394488","repostId":"1121299313","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121299313","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1670243462,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121299313?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-05 20:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉盘前跌超5%，传上海工厂12月Model Y将减产超20%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121299313","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月5日，$特斯拉(TSLA)$盘前一度跌超5%报184.83美元，有媒体援引知情人士在周一表示，特斯拉计划将其上海工厂12月的Model Y产量较11月削减逾20%。不过媒体无法立即确定这家电动汽车巨头12月份削减最新生产计划的具体原因。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>12月5日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前一度跌超5%报184.83美元，有媒体援引知情人士在周一表示，特斯拉计划将其上海工厂12月的Model Y产量较11月削减逾20%。不过媒体无法立即确定这家电动汽车巨头12月份削减最新生产计划的具体原因。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a17e25fa34bbc34db2891f49f2798a6e\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"835\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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20:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>12月5日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前一度跌超5%报184.83美元，有媒体援引知情人士在周一表示，特斯拉计划将其上海工厂12月的Model Y产量较11月削减逾20%。不过媒体无法立即确定这家电动汽车巨头12月份削减最新生产计划的具体原因。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a17e25fa34bbc34db2891f49f2798a6e\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"835\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 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Y产量较11月削减逾20%。不过媒体无法立即确定这家电动汽车巨头12月份削减最新生产计划的具体原因。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691771250,"gmtCreate":1640252183970,"gmtModify":1640252183970,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>跟随聪明的钱，B.Dog","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>跟随聪明的钱，B.Dog","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$跟随聪明的钱，B.Dog","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691771250","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2845,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"content":"那我和机器人对骂了两天，感觉说话思路是真人","text":"那我和机器人对骂了两天，感觉说话思路是真人","html":"那我和机器人对骂了两天，感觉说话思路是真人"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":202180146765864,"gmtCreate":1690398491069,"gmtModify":1690398492313,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"挺住，明年就会降息","listText":"挺住，明年就会降息","text":"挺住，明年就会降息","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/202180146765864","repostId":"1117691111","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1117691111","pubTimestamp":1690396575,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117691111?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-07-27 02:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"鲍威尔：未排除9月加息可能，今年不降息，美联储内部不再预测美国会陷入衰退","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117691111","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"鲍威尔：如果数据有保障，美联储9月可能再次加息。鲍威尔称，今年不会降息，但多名FOMC成员希望明年多次降息。通胀和加息鲍威尔重申：美联储致力于实现双重使命，致力于让通胀回到2%。鲍威尔说，降低通胀可能意味着低于趋势的经济增长。鲍威尔称，名义工资增长已经显示出一些放松的迹象。房地产市场在谈到美国房地产市场时，鲍威尔说，住房部门有所复苏，但仍远低于2022年水平。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>鲍威尔说，美国的通胀已经在一定程度上得到缓解，不过将通胀回落到2%的过程还有很长的路要走。劳动力市场依然非常紧张。美联储工作人员不再预测美国经济会陷入衰退。他强调，当前政策已有限制性，利率水平应维持在限制性水平相当长时间，未来的利率会在逐次会议上做出决定，今年不会降息，多位官员支持明年多次降息。对于9月的会议，他认为需要看到更多数据后再做出决定，如果数据有支撑，9月可能再加息。利率调整和缩表是独立的，美联储可能在缩表的同时降息。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">7月26日周三，在美联储议息会议结束之后，美联储主席鲍威尔召开新闻发布会。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在发布会上，鲍威尔就美联储的政策路径、美国通胀、美国经济、劳动力市场等问题发表看法。</p><p><strong>通胀已有缓解但比预期更有韧性，但距离2%的目标还有很长的路要走</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关于美国的通胀，鲍威尔重申：</p><blockquote>美联储致力于实现双重使命，致力于让通胀回到2%。没有价格稳定就无法实现强劲的劳动力市场。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>鲍威尔说，美国的通胀已经在一定程度上得到了缓解，不过，将通胀回落到2%的过程还有很长的路要走。他承认，事实证明通胀比预期更有韧性。他认为，过去通胀一再高于预期，但这种情况可能会改变。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔说，高通胀率带来了重大困难，长期通胀预期仍然“根深蒂固”：</p><blockquote>美联储高度关注通胀给该机构双重使命带来的风险，FOMC能做的最好事情就是恢复价格稳定。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔认为，随着时间推移，未来美国经济增长更强劲，这可能会加剧通胀，或需政策回应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，鲍威尔认为，俄罗斯退出黑海粮食协议预计不会对美国食品通胀产生重大影响。</p><p><strong>利率已达限制性水平，并将维持较长时间，年内不会降息</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关于本轮加息周期，鲍威尔称，美联储的货币政策正在发挥作用，符合预期。不过，加息的全部影响还没显现，需要时间才能实现全部效果。他强调，FOMC将考虑累积的政策紧缩效应和滞后性，但是对于滞后期的维持时间存在很多不确定性，也存在争议。他认为，当前的实际联邦基金利率已经处于有意义的正区间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>他表示，美联储预计到2025年左右才能看到通胀回到2%的政策目标水平，美联储可以在通胀达到2%之前停止加息。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他表示，当前，完全有理由放慢加息速度，<strong>FOMC将对未来的加息进程依然采取依赖数据的做法，将继续逐次会议作出是否加息的决定</strong>：</p><blockquote>我们尚未就任何未来会议做出决定。更渐进的加息步伐并不意味着每隔一次会议加息一次。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>鲍威尔称，FOMC认为当前的货币政策是具有限制性的，需要将利率保持在较高的水平“一段时间”，需要继续抗通胀，这也需要坚持一段时间：</strong></p><blockquote><strong>政策已经具有限制性的，在今天之后更是如此。FOMC可以保持耐心和坚定。</strong></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>他认为，随着货币立场越来越具有限制性，面临的风险也在增加，现在的问题在于如何权衡做得太多或太少的风险。鲍威尔称：</strong></p><blockquote><strong>如果我们看到通胀得到可靠缓解，就不需要采取紧缩措施。如果我们看到通胀稳定地下降，我们可以将利率降至中性水平，然后在某个时候降至中性水平以下。</strong></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔表示，6月CPI的放缓令人鼓舞，但只是一个月份的数据，通胀报告比预期稍好。他认为，总体通胀率下降这么多是一件好事，这将增强公众对通胀下降的认知。但现在，核心通胀仍然相当高，希望看到核心通胀率下降。他再次强调，核心通胀是一个更好的指标，可以预示整体通胀的走势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔也表示：</p><blockquote>我们将谨慎行事，不过度解读单一通胀数据，将会关注此后的CPI数据是否会再次录得回落。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔特别强调，数据的整体性很重要，特别关注通胀进展。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔表示：</p><blockquote><strong>如果数据有支撑，美联储9月可能再次加息。</strong>到9月FOMC会议还有8周时间，我们将一直关注到那时的所有数据。我们不希望提供前瞻性指导。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>关于缩表，鲍威尔说，利率调整和缩表是独立的，美联储可能在缩表的同时降息。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔说，在判断何时降息时，需要同时考虑通胀水平和通胀下降的速度：</p><blockquote><strong>对于未来会议，甚至明年的前景存在很多不确定性。我认为今年不会降息，降息与否将取决于我们对通胀回落至目标的信心程度。不过，部分FOMC委员预计明年将降息。</strong></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔称，本次会议存在不同观点，市场将在会议纪要中看到这一点。</p><p><strong>美联储内部不再认为美国经济会陷入衰退，软着陆路径依然存在</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在谈到美国经济时，鲍威尔说，美国经济活动以温和的速度扩张，消费者支出增长较年初放缓。与6月份对美国经济“温和”的评价相比，美联储对经济活动的评价有所提高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他强调：</p><blockquote>我们看到的经济疲软并非因为失业率上升，而是因为职位空缺和离职减少。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分行业来看，鲍威尔认为，一些行业一直反映出紧缩的影响。此外，整体经济显示信贷条件正在收紧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔说，降低通胀可能意味着把经济增速压低至低于趋势的水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔说，美国经济具备韧性是“一件好事”，但是，从边际上看，更强劲的经济增长可能导致更多的通胀。他认为，美国经济增长将在未来加强。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>他表示，美联储工作人员不再预测美国经济会陷入衰退：</strong></p><blockquote><strong>我的基本假设是可以在失业率没有大幅增加的情况下实现2%的目标。</strong></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔重申，实现一定程度的通胀下降而不引发失业激增，即实现“软着陆”是一种理想的结果，但在现实中，劳动市场的疲软仍然是可能的结果。他说：</p><blockquote>我不会用“乐观”这个词，但存在实现软着陆的路径。即使出现软着陆，劳动力状况仍会有所减弱。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔说，FOMC希望看到供应瓶颈缓解，希望看到适度或温和水平的经济增长。</p><p><strong>劳动力市场趋于平衡的趋势愈发明显，但仍需进一步放松</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在劳动力市场方面，鲍威尔认为，劳动力供需持续出现平衡的迹象越来越明显。他认为，美国劳动力市场仍然非常紧张，就业增长依然强劲，劳动力需求仍然明显超过供应，因此，劳动力市场条件需要进一步放松。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔称，名义工资增长已经显示出一些放松的迹象，不过实际工资的增长是一件好事。这也意味着，市场一度十分担心的“工资-通胀螺旋”可能未必会出现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔称，美联储我们工资增长幅度与2%的目标通胀率相一致。他强调，美联储并非特别针对工资通胀。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔说，FOMC正在寻找劳动市场广泛疲软的迹象，最新报告显示私营部门就业市场出现了放缓。</p><p><strong>较高的利率拖累房地产市场，银行业已经稳定</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在谈到美国房地产市场时，鲍威尔说，住房部门有所复苏，但仍远低于2022年水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他认为，恢复房地产市场的平衡还有很长的路走，现有住房供应非常紧张。不过，较高的利率已经拖慢了房地产市场的增长速度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关于银行业动荡，鲍威尔称，很难梳理出银行业动荡对经济的影响，美联储正在谨慎监测银行业的情况，当前，美国银行业已经稳定下来。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在谈到银行业危机时，鲍威尔说，美国的银行现在正努力确保对使用贴现窗口做好准备，美联储也鼓励银行这样做。</p><p><strong>市场反应及评论</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔召开新闻发布会期间，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数回吐早前涨幅并转跌。其中，标普500指数下跌0.2%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.4%。道琼斯工业平均指数仍然保持上涨，但涨幅有限。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">债券收益率下跌，其中两年期美国收益率对美联储即将采取的行动敏感，跌至4.84%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有“新美联储通讯社”之称的华尔街日报记者在新闻发布会后发表的文章中称，美联储内部的分歧依然没有得到弥合：</p><blockquote>一些美联储官员表示，他们可能更愿意在9月份的会议上再次加息。但认为美联储加息影响尚未完全显现的官员更有可能倾向于等到11月或12月再决定是否适合进行下一次加息。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对冲基金公司Citadel全球固定收益经济研究主管Angel Ubide认为，随着美联储进入本轮加息周期的收尾阶段，放慢加息步伐是有意义的：</p><blockquote>对于紧缩周期的最后一公里，随着时间的推移延长它是有意义的。美联储正在微调，他们也不知道确切的目的地在哪里。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"> 宏利投资管理公司全球首席经济学家Frances Donald认为，美联储开始降息的门槛很高，需要实际数据，这些数据可能会在年底实现，届时美联储可能有信心更好地控制通胀：</p><blockquote>我们现在认为美联储处于长期‘鹰派立场’。在我们的基本假设下，他们的下一步行动可能是降息，但要到2024年才能看到。 尽管如此，鲍威尔别无选择，只能继续警告市场可能会加息，以免鼓励市场过早消化降息并重新点燃通胀预期。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">资产管理公司Carson Wealth的分析师Sonu Varghese表示，鲍威尔保留了他的选择余地，但美联储不太可能再次加息。Varghese预计，9月会议前的通胀报告将显示物价走弱。他表示：</p><blockquote>美联储希望看到通胀下降，尤其是核心通胀，但他们不一定需要看到经济走弱。</blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>鲍威尔：未排除9月加息可能，今年不降息，美联储内部不再预测美国会陷入衰退</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n鲍威尔：未排除9月加息可能，今年不降息，美联储内部不再预测美国会陷入衰退\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-27 02:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3694160><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>鲍威尔说，美国的通胀已经在一定程度上得到缓解，不过将通胀回落到2%的过程还有很长的路要走。劳动力市场依然非常紧张。美联储工作人员不再预测美国经济会陷入衰退。他强调，当前政策已有限制性，利率水平应维持在限制性水平相当长时间，未来的利率会在逐次会议上做出决定，今年不会降息，多位官员支持明年多次降息。对于9月的会议，他认为需要看到更多数据后再做出决定，如果数据有支撑，9月可能再加息。利率调整和缩表是独立...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3694160\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/251d111e0dc44a538f8fafbe2a786ec6","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3694160","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117691111","content_text":"鲍威尔说，美国的通胀已经在一定程度上得到缓解，不过将通胀回落到2%的过程还有很长的路要走。劳动力市场依然非常紧张。美联储工作人员不再预测美国经济会陷入衰退。他强调，当前政策已有限制性，利率水平应维持在限制性水平相当长时间，未来的利率会在逐次会议上做出决定，今年不会降息，多位官员支持明年多次降息。对于9月的会议，他认为需要看到更多数据后再做出决定，如果数据有支撑，9月可能再加息。利率调整和缩表是独立的，美联储可能在缩表的同时降息。7月26日周三，在美联储议息会议结束之后，美联储主席鲍威尔召开新闻发布会。在发布会上，鲍威尔就美联储的政策路径、美国通胀、美国经济、劳动力市场等问题发表看法。通胀已有缓解但比预期更有韧性，但距离2%的目标还有很长的路要走关于美国的通胀，鲍威尔重申：美联储致力于实现双重使命，致力于让通胀回到2%。没有价格稳定就无法实现强劲的劳动力市场。鲍威尔说，美国的通胀已经在一定程度上得到了缓解，不过，将通胀回落到2%的过程还有很长的路要走。他承认，事实证明通胀比预期更有韧性。他认为，过去通胀一再高于预期，但这种情况可能会改变。鲍威尔说，高通胀率带来了重大困难，长期通胀预期仍然“根深蒂固”：美联储高度关注通胀给该机构双重使命带来的风险，FOMC能做的最好事情就是恢复价格稳定。鲍威尔认为，随着时间推移，未来美国经济增长更强劲，这可能会加剧通胀，或需政策回应。此外，鲍威尔认为，俄罗斯退出黑海粮食协议预计不会对美国食品通胀产生重大影响。利率已达限制性水平，并将维持较长时间，年内不会降息关于本轮加息周期，鲍威尔称，美联储的货币政策正在发挥作用，符合预期。不过，加息的全部影响还没显现，需要时间才能实现全部效果。他强调，FOMC将考虑累积的政策紧缩效应和滞后性，但是对于滞后期的维持时间存在很多不确定性，也存在争议。他认为，当前的实际联邦基金利率已经处于有意义的正区间。他表示，美联储预计到2025年左右才能看到通胀回到2%的政策目标水平，美联储可以在通胀达到2%之前停止加息。他表示，当前，完全有理由放慢加息速度，FOMC将对未来的加息进程依然采取依赖数据的做法，将继续逐次会议作出是否加息的决定：我们尚未就任何未来会议做出决定。更渐进的加息步伐并不意味着每隔一次会议加息一次。鲍威尔称，FOMC认为当前的货币政策是具有限制性的，需要将利率保持在较高的水平“一段时间”，需要继续抗通胀，这也需要坚持一段时间：政策已经具有限制性的，在今天之后更是如此。FOMC可以保持耐心和坚定。他认为，随着货币立场越来越具有限制性，面临的风险也在增加，现在的问题在于如何权衡做得太多或太少的风险。鲍威尔称：如果我们看到通胀得到可靠缓解，就不需要采取紧缩措施。如果我们看到通胀稳定地下降，我们可以将利率降至中性水平，然后在某个时候降至中性水平以下。鲍威尔表示，6月CPI的放缓令人鼓舞，但只是一个月份的数据，通胀报告比预期稍好。他认为，总体通胀率下降这么多是一件好事，这将增强公众对通胀下降的认知。但现在，核心通胀仍然相当高，希望看到核心通胀率下降。他再次强调，核心通胀是一个更好的指标，可以预示整体通胀的走势。鲍威尔也表示：我们将谨慎行事，不过度解读单一通胀数据，将会关注此后的CPI数据是否会再次录得回落。鲍威尔特别强调，数据的整体性很重要，特别关注通胀进展。鲍威尔表示：如果数据有支撑，美联储9月可能再次加息。到9月FOMC会议还有8周时间，我们将一直关注到那时的所有数据。我们不希望提供前瞻性指导。关于缩表，鲍威尔说，利率调整和缩表是独立的，美联储可能在缩表的同时降息。鲍威尔说，在判断何时降息时，需要同时考虑通胀水平和通胀下降的速度：对于未来会议，甚至明年的前景存在很多不确定性。我认为今年不会降息，降息与否将取决于我们对通胀回落至目标的信心程度。不过，部分FOMC委员预计明年将降息。鲍威尔称，本次会议存在不同观点，市场将在会议纪要中看到这一点。美联储内部不再认为美国经济会陷入衰退，软着陆路径依然存在在谈到美国经济时，鲍威尔说，美国经济活动以温和的速度扩张，消费者支出增长较年初放缓。与6月份对美国经济“温和”的评价相比，美联储对经济活动的评价有所提高。他强调：我们看到的经济疲软并非因为失业率上升，而是因为职位空缺和离职减少。分行业来看，鲍威尔认为，一些行业一直反映出紧缩的影响。此外，整体经济显示信贷条件正在收紧。鲍威尔说，降低通胀可能意味着把经济增速压低至低于趋势的水平。鲍威尔说，美国经济具备韧性是“一件好事”，但是，从边际上看，更强劲的经济增长可能导致更多的通胀。他认为，美国经济增长将在未来加强。他表示，美联储工作人员不再预测美国经济会陷入衰退：我的基本假设是可以在失业率没有大幅增加的情况下实现2%的目标。鲍威尔重申，实现一定程度的通胀下降而不引发失业激增，即实现“软着陆”是一种理想的结果，但在现实中，劳动市场的疲软仍然是可能的结果。他说：我不会用“乐观”这个词，但存在实现软着陆的路径。即使出现软着陆，劳动力状况仍会有所减弱。鲍威尔说，FOMC希望看到供应瓶颈缓解，希望看到适度或温和水平的经济增长。劳动力市场趋于平衡的趋势愈发明显，但仍需进一步放松在劳动力市场方面，鲍威尔认为，劳动力供需持续出现平衡的迹象越来越明显。他认为，美国劳动力市场仍然非常紧张，就业增长依然强劲，劳动力需求仍然明显超过供应，因此，劳动力市场条件需要进一步放松。鲍威尔称，名义工资增长已经显示出一些放松的迹象，不过实际工资的增长是一件好事。这也意味着，市场一度十分担心的“工资-通胀螺旋”可能未必会出现。鲍威尔称，美联储我们工资增长幅度与2%的目标通胀率相一致。他强调，美联储并非特别针对工资通胀。鲍威尔说，FOMC正在寻找劳动市场广泛疲软的迹象，最新报告显示私营部门就业市场出现了放缓。较高的利率拖累房地产市场，银行业已经稳定在谈到美国房地产市场时，鲍威尔说，住房部门有所复苏，但仍远低于2022年水平。他认为，恢复房地产市场的平衡还有很长的路走，现有住房供应非常紧张。不过，较高的利率已经拖慢了房地产市场的增长速度。关于银行业动荡，鲍威尔称，很难梳理出银行业动荡对经济的影响，美联储正在谨慎监测银行业的情况，当前，美国银行业已经稳定下来。在谈到银行业危机时，鲍威尔说，美国的银行现在正努力确保对使用贴现窗口做好准备，美联储也鼓励银行这样做。市场反应及评论鲍威尔召开新闻发布会期间，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数回吐早前涨幅并转跌。其中，标普500指数下跌0.2%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.4%。道琼斯工业平均指数仍然保持上涨，但涨幅有限。债券收益率下跌，其中两年期美国收益率对美联储即将采取的行动敏感，跌至4.84%。有“新美联储通讯社”之称的华尔街日报记者在新闻发布会后发表的文章中称，美联储内部的分歧依然没有得到弥合：一些美联储官员表示，他们可能更愿意在9月份的会议上再次加息。但认为美联储加息影响尚未完全显现的官员更有可能倾向于等到11月或12月再决定是否适合进行下一次加息。对冲基金公司Citadel全球固定收益经济研究主管Angel Ubide认为，随着美联储进入本轮加息周期的收尾阶段，放慢加息步伐是有意义的：对于紧缩周期的最后一公里，随着时间的推移延长它是有意义的。美联储正在微调，他们也不知道确切的目的地在哪里。 宏利投资管理公司全球首席经济学家Frances Donald认为，美联储开始降息的门槛很高，需要实际数据，这些数据可能会在年底实现，届时美联储可能有信心更好地控制通胀：我们现在认为美联储处于长期‘鹰派立场’。在我们的基本假设下，他们的下一步行动可能是降息，但要到2024年才能看到。 尽管如此，鲍威尔别无选择，只能继续警告市场可能会加息，以免鼓励市场过早消化降息并重新点燃通胀预期。资产管理公司Carson Wealth的分析师Sonu Varghese表示，鲍威尔保留了他的选择余地，但美联储不太可能再次加息。Varghese预计，9月会议前的通胀报告将显示物价走弱。他表示：美联储希望看到通胀下降，尤其是核心通胀，但他们不一定需要看到经济走弱。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696712406,"gmtCreate":1640768958036,"gmtModify":1640770578260,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>你们以为透露的消息是在和你们开玩笑么？？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>你们以为透露的消息是在和你们开玩笑么？？","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$你们以为透露的消息是在和你们开玩笑么？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699375575","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"203105757513414","authorId":"203105757513414","name":"昵称567","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87061f98cee6875ec1599d4c24bee99f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"203105757513414","authorIdStr":"203105757513414"},"content":"什么消息？","text":"什么消息？","html":"什么消息？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":191334021,"gmtCreate":1620847796263,"gmtModify":1620847796263,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/cover/202206/09/135818120888.jpg?imageView2/1/w/720/h/405/|imageMogr2/strip/interlace/1/quality/85/format/jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4527":"明星科技股","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/577451.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2242233535","content_text":"自打五菱宏光登上神坛，就没下过秋名山，而车企五菱背后的曲折发展，也复杂过发卡弯，今天我们就来聊聊车神五菱的逆袭之路。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691771440,"gmtCreate":1640252221115,"gmtModify":1640252221115,"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>跟随聪明的钱，B.Dog","listText":"<a 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