takleee的个人主页 - 老虎社区

takleee

takleee

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0勋章

2021-08-01

$Pfizer(PFE)$@爱发红包的虎妞看不到财政报报告

2021-07-30

@爱发红包的虎妞看不到这个新闻。请帮忙

@节点财经:市值蒸发超6000亿，中国平安还能守住万亿市值吗？

2021-07-28

已投

@空军大队长:兄弟们麻烦给我们投一下票，在评论区截图奖金给你，分别是空间大队长，柳下惠的气质，少帅铁柱$好未来(TAL)$$新东方(EDU)$$三倍做空FTSE中国ETF-Direxion(YANG)$@我是股神的小腿毛 @我是股神的小腿毛 @柳下惠的气质 @小虎通知

2021-07-28

@小虎活动你好

GameStop Is Likely An Eventual Zero - But You Still Shouldn't Short It

2021-06-14

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$to the moon [财迷]

2021-04-11

Anyone tried their software and car??[龇牙]

XPeng Inc.: A Reawakening

2021-04-04

有实力就给我们看几个

@爱上趋势股:赚了不少，简单晒个单（4/2）

2021-03-24

Xiaomi has best in class performance and price. I support you[得意]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-23

不要放手。这期一定会回单

@JRcapital:$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$$拼多多(PDD)$炒股让我学会了放下执念，连多年都放不下的前任也放下了，回首往事，亏的心疼。[流泪]

2021-02-22

财政报告日期

2021-02-14

下个新期的USA公司财政报告日期分享给大家[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [开心] [开心]

2020-11-13

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$有人知道下个其会卖几辆车吗

2020-11-13

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$我觉的价格会掉

2020-11-11

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$这个是wave什么?

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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/从千亿资产到万亿资产平安在不涨和大涨间摇摆时间拨回到上世纪80年代，将近而立之年的马明哲跟着淘金大潮来到了深圳蛇口——中国改革开放最早的“试验田”。在这里，他当过工人，做过通讯员，最终落脚社保公司，为日后的职业生涯积累经验。经过两年多打拼，马明哲越发意识到当时我国保险制度的不合时宜和滞后性，他提出模仿香港，走商业保险的路子，将雇主责任险转变为工伤保险，从新的险种入手，避免原来雇主缴纳的保险金贬值。但这一提议很快就被以“工伤保险属于商业保险模式，不在社保公司的经营范围”为由遭到拒绝。彼时，开创一家新型保险公司的念头在马明哲心里扎下了根。此后几年，他忙于递交申请，修改材料，奔波于让想法成为现实。1988年，改革开放带来保险业政策松动的机会，在时任蛇口工业区总指挥袁庚的支持下，以及马明哲不懈的沟通与努力下，中国第一家股份制、地方性的保险企业，即深圳平安保险公司成立，马明哲担任总经理。1994年，平安引入外部投资者高盛和摩根士丹利，借助外资更加精细的管理方式和市场化原则，业务规模迅速扩大，寿险业务超越友邦，证券、信托、期货业务逐步组建和营运。到2001年，中国平安总资产已达1087亿元，营收415.47亿元","text":"文 / 七公出品 / 节点财经最近一段时间，不管是大盘是涨是跌，中国平安（601318.SH）的表现都相当稳定，那就是不断的下跌。从去年11月30日高点的94.62元/股算起，中国平安累计跌幅近40%，市值蒸发超6000亿元，占同期申万保险板块市值缩水量的一半以上，相当于跌没了一个海康威视！图源：WIND数据随着中国平安股价一路走低，投资者们坐不住了，类似“中国平安股票现在可以买吗？”、“中国平安还有下跌空间吗？”、“平安还有投资价值吗？”的讨论日渐激烈。作为大金融保险龙头标杆之一，市场倚重的白马股，中国平安咋就不香了？风起于青萍之末，浪成于微澜之间，一切亦有迹可循。/ 01 /从千亿资产到万亿资产平安在不涨和大涨间摇摆时间拨回到上世纪80年代，将近而立之年的马明哲跟着淘金大潮来到了深圳蛇口——中国改革开放最早的“试验田”。在这里，他当过工人，做过通讯员，最终落脚社保公司，为日后的职业生涯积累经验。经过两年多打拼，马明哲越发意识到当时我国保险制度的不合时宜和滞后性，他提出模仿香港，走商业保险的路子，将雇主责任险转变为工伤保险，从新的险种入手，避免原来雇主缴纳的保险金贬值。但这一提议很快就被以“工伤保险属于商业保险模式，不在社保公司的经营范围”为由遭到拒绝。彼时，开创一家新型保险公司的念头在马明哲心里扎下了根。此后几年，他忙于递交申请，修改材料，奔波于让想法成为现实。1988年，改革开放带来保险业政策松动的机会，在时任蛇口工业区总指挥袁庚的支持下，以及马明哲不懈的沟通与努力下，中国第一家股份制、地方性的保险企业，即深圳平安保险公司成立，马明哲担任总经理。1994年，平安引入外部投资者高盛和摩根士丹利，借助外资更加精细的管理方式和市场化原则，业务规模迅速扩大，寿险业务超越友邦，证券、信托、期货业务逐步组建和营运。到2001年，中国平安总资产已达1087亿元，营收415.47亿元","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dba1335fb343c1d06e07bb41b94f73b"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c45eba3f480847d05dc0d8eebca3bbfb"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34ee0a0c54d217fff8f60226dab08398"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800939315","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":801957557,"gmtCreate":1627480778279,"gmtModify":1633764602763,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"已投","listText":"已投","text":"已投","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801957557","repostId":"803570349","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":803570349,"gmtCreate":1627452190981,"gmtModify":1627457774578,"author":{"id":"74125836878304","authorId":"74125836878304","name":"空军大队长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/491ac6b2de4e6f00b0c07853ca1c186b","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"兄弟们麻烦给我们投一下票，在评论区截图奖金给你，分别是空间大队长，柳下惠的气质，少帅铁柱<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$好未来(TAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YANG\">$三倍做空FTSE中国ETF-Direxion(YANG)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20733756400840\">@我是股神的小腿毛</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20733756400840\">@我是股神的小腿毛</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/27853154588556\">@柳下惠的气质</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/37000856390400\">@小虎通知</a>","listText":"兄弟们麻烦给我们投一下票，在评论区截图奖金给你，分别是空间大队长，柳下惠的气质，少帅铁柱<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$好未来(TAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YANG\">$三倍做空FTSE中国ETF-Direxion(YANG)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20733756400840\">@我是股神的小腿毛</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20733756400840\">@我是股神的小腿毛</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/27853154588556\">@柳下惠的气质</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/37000856390400\">@小虎通知</a>","text":"兄弟们麻烦给我们投一下票，在评论区截图奖金给你，分别是空间大队长，柳下惠的气质，少帅铁柱$好未来(TAL)$$新东方(EDU)$$三倍做空FTSE中国ETF-Direxion(YANG)$@我是股神的小腿毛@我是股神的小腿毛@柳下惠的气质@小虎通知","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3da36756264472532e5ffa8a71116576","width":"1131","height":"1093"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803570349","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":801922474,"gmtCreate":1627480320398,"gmtModify":1633764611276,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/36984908995200\">@小虎活动</a>你好","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/36984908995200\">@小虎活动</a>你好","text":"@小虎活动你好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801922474","repostId":"1193811590","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1193811590","pubTimestamp":1627298505,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1193811590?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 19:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop Is Likely An Eventual Zero - But You Still Shouldn't Short It","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193811590","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGameStop has taken advantage of its infamous short squeeze to raise more than $1.5 billion ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>GameStop has taken advantage of its infamous short squeeze to raise more than $1.5 billion by issuing shares.</li>\n <li>The influx of cash and involvement of activist investors has revived some hope in the fundamental case for this stock.</li>\n <li>But GameStop's eventual demise has only been delayed. Physical media is declining, disc-less consoles are inevitable, and the company has failed to diversify into any growing industry.</li>\n <li>Unless you expect another short squeeze, stay away. Anyone expecting GameStop shares to be much higher 2+ years from now is hoping for a miracle.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53ef42c790928444bac7fd163c42e706\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"477\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Brandi Lyon Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>GME Mania</b></p>\n<p>The short squeeze that sent GameStop (GME) from $20 to a high of $480 in January has been impressively long-lived. After a dip down to the $50 range, it has stayed above $100 for nearly 5 months. GameStop has taken advantage by raising $1.5B in cash so far.</p>\n<p>That's more than their entire market cap at the beginning of the year, so it's true that their position has improved dramatically. They repaid most of their long-term debt and the charts below don't even reflect the most recent&nbsp;$1.1 billion&nbsp;they raised.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2494b2f5466e9ef18884e8a5cf42531b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Their immediate future has been secured, but the long-term outlook hasn't changed. Unless you expect another short squeeze, there's no reason to think GME can go higher on fundamental value. The ~$2B they have in cash doesn't come close to their $13 billion dollar market cap. To make up that gap you would need to believe their business is worth billions, but it's currently in demise.</p>\n<p><b>The Business</b></p>\n<p>GameStop's&nbsp;core business&nbsp;is video game hardware and software (mostly physical discs) and the remaining 11% of revenue comes from collectibles.</p>\n<p>Physical videogame discs have been&nbsp;in decline&nbsp;for the same reason as DVD movies - direct digital downloads are replacing them. At the&nbsp;start&nbsp;of the PS4/Xbox One generation in 2013, about 10% of console sales were digital. By 2017 it was 50/50, 63% digital by 2019, and 72% during 2020 (probably boosted by the pandemic).</p>\n<p>The trend in their revenue seems to track the decline in physical games. You can also see performance deteriorating before the pandemic ever closed stores. You could blame that performance on the seasonality of the console cycle (4th gen launched in 2013 and 5th in 2020), but revenue still fell below the previous late-stage console cycle even though gross margins shrunk.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57826163b427cb331296fa83656d0ab5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Not Exactly Like Blockbuster</b></p>\n<p>The trend in physical games is the biggest factor in GameStop's future, so it's worth analyzing the incentives of both consumers and console makers to switch to digital. Both Sony's (SONY) PlayStation and Microsoft's (MSFT) Xbox have released disc-less versions of their consoles for the first time in the newest generation. They are $100 cheaper than the standard version and potentially open the door to a future where all consoles drop the disc drive.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f2de24c967d3874247ed82241f996ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: PlayStation.com</span></p>\n<p>First, we should consider the benefits to consumers. The rate they've been switching to digital might already show their preference, but physical games still have advantages. Unlike a download, you can re-sell or give discs to another person. For used games, GameStop offers returns so that you can try a game and return it within 7 days if you don't like it. PlayStation and Xbox generally don't allowreturnsfor their digital stores unless there is a purchasing error. The last benefit is that discs store data which saves some space on the hard drive of the console.</p>\n<p>The case for digital games is similar to streaming vs. DVDs. Avoid the store and download games straight from your console. Although download times could negate that benefit, there are new improvements that allow players to access a portion of a game as the rest downloads or pre-download a game the night before it releases. You also don't have to worry about storing and switching out physical discs, and can log into your account to access your games from a different console.</p>\n<p><b>Console Makers</b></p>\n<p>Console developers are more directly incentivized than consumers to push digital downloads. They can sell games to consumers through the digital store on their console, which cuts out retailers like GameStop. They could keep more profit or offer better discounts to gamers. There's also the consideration that a console that costs $100 less is more competitive with alternatives like a PC or Nintendo Switch.</p>\n<p>A significant but overlooked threat to physical games is the affordable game subscription services that both PlayStation and Xbox offer. The biggest advantage of used games is that they can be sold beyond the first consumer and so you can find plenty of affordable, slightly older used games and make money back from them when you're done. But I'd suggest services like the $15/month&nbsp;Xbox Game Pass&nbsp;that charge for access to a library of hundreds of games can address value-oriented customers even better than used games.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcff87c4810c6ece2b99d70a7dd05ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Microsoft.com</span></p>\n<p>Gamers don't need to worry about affordable used games if developers are providing affordable access to their back catalog. It makes sense for the developer because they don't make money from used game sales anyway. By letting gamers play an older title they may be persuaded to purchase the newest sequel or paid DLC.</p>\n<p>Another argument for the disc drive is backward compatibility with previous consoles. This point falls completely flat because the new generation of consoles is digitallybackward compatible, allowing users to transfer titles they purchased from the now old generation onto the new console.</p>\n<p>An additional contention is that disc drives will stay because they can also be used as Blu-ray players. The truth is that DVD/Blu-Rays are much less relevant than physical games. DVD/Blu-raysaleshave dropped from $10 Billion in 2010 to less than $3B the past four quarters starting from Q2 2020.</p>\n<p>On top of that, the $100 discount for buying a digital console is more than enough to buy a stand-alone Blu-ray player, so that audience can go elsewhere and isn't incentivized to buy a game console if they didn't want one already. Another way to put it is that losing Blu-ray capability shouldn't affect demand for consoles.</p>\n<p>The biggest reason neither company has given up the disc drive yet, and might not next generation, is that they are worried about the competition taking over retail distribution channels. 72% of console software sales were digital in 2020 and that should only grow over time, but even the remaining 28% is still meaningful. If only one of them gave up the disc drive, the competitors could keep it and be the only ones selling in GameStop and other retailers. So it's possible that both consoles will keep disc drives until physical discs are a truly tiny portion of the market.</p>\n<p><b>Uncertain Future</b></p>\n<p>The problem for GameStop is that even if the console makers don't try to cut out discs in a new generation, the market is shrinking and has been for over a decade. GameStop isn't alone in their market either, since you can buy the same products (except used games) at Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Amazon, or even used games on eBay and other sites.</p>\n<p>With so many competitors, GameStop tries to differentiate itself by offering better service and having knowledgeable staff. But their own activist investorRyan Cohendiscovered stores had dusty shelves, poor customer service, and empty racks. From how it sounds, GameStop will have to spend money just to bring their retail experience up to par. It is going to be hard to stand out when so many excellent retailers sell the same product at the same price.</p>\n<p>Even thethirdof sales that were from E-commerce in 2020 have to compete with Amazon and every other e-commerce platform.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dfc710890a2903c5e849489bb962a26\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>GameStop.com</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edd6b6ac51b05627bb8d471a954b385c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"260\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Amazon.com</span></p>\n<p>You can find the exact same games on Amazon.com or Walmart.com and those two actually have 1-day and 2-day shipping compared to GameStop's 2-5 day shipping. Online sales might even have less of a moat than retail because the buying experience is so comparable and GameStop will never have the distribution and marketing scale that Amazon does.</p>\n<p>A lot is made of what GameStop's retail store base could<i>become</i>since they are the largest retail brand exclusively dedicated to video games and still have over 4,000 stores. The problem is that GameStop had years to make attempts since they startedclosing storesin 2014 and the then CEO said they would expand to \"gaming-adjacent tech fields”. Over these years they've attempted sellingretro/classicvideo games,failed to launcha game subscription service, and made many promises to change the business. In 2019, now departing CEO George Sherman said his GameStop 2.0 plan would turn stores into a \"cultural experience\" and a place to “hang out and try games before buying\". Ryan Cohen's report of the poor retail experience and a continuing decline in sales shows that none of their attempts have worked so far. If there was a way to transform their stores to compete as video games go digital, you would have expected one of their CEOs to have found it over the past decade.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>A long shot for success like GameStop would have investment potential at a deep value price, but that obviously isn't the case at $180/share. They have an enterprise value of $11B but haven't had significant FCF or EBITDA since 2018 and their market will keep shrinking over time.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141ee00d085dd23d918a860df10739d4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>GameStop trades at double the valuation of most comparable stocks.</p>\n<p>Best Buy (BBY) has been growing for years and is solidly profitable but trades at an EV/Sales of 0.5 compared to GameStop at 2.1. Target (TGT) and other leaders in retail trade at an EV/Sales below 1.5 and clearly don't have the existential threat to their business that GameStop does.</p>\n<p>GameStop would need a massive turnaround in profitability to ever justify this valuation. With their core market shrinking fast and every attempt to diversify having failed so far, it seems like the stock is massively overvalued and the business could be worth next to nothing if they can't turn a profit.</p>\n<p><b>GME Still Isn't A Short</b></p>\n<p>Even though the stock is convincingly overvalued, it's doesn't seem like a compelling short. There's no reason why GameStop should be valued above $100 per share based on the condition of their business, but that hasn't stopped it from staying above that range for months after the initial squeeze. Without a clear catalyst or idea as to what will eventually bring shares back in line with the reality of their business, which could take years, I'm going to stay away from a short position.</p>\n<p>If GameStop deftly times more share offerings when prices are high, they could bring in additional billions of cash. The share price has held up since the $1 billionATM offeringin June, so they might be able to take it even further. At $180/share, each $1B of shares sold brings in about $14 in cash per share on top of the roughly ~$27/share they have now.</p>\n<p>At some point, enough share offerings could tank the share price, but anyone who is short the stock risks taking a ride if it spikes back to the highs of $400+ or above in the meantime.</p>\n<p>Even if GME shares don't see those highs again, they could stay around the current level for a while. For reasons outlined in my article aboutRobinhood, gamblers are increasingly coming to the stock market. GME is still the most notorious meme stock, and pure speculative interest could keep shares in this range for an untold amount of time. A patient and careful short-seller might be able to manage a position for a decent return, but the uncertainty and volatility should encourage most investors to stay away from a position on either side.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>The meme of GME stock is going to run into the reality of GameStop's deteriorating business and overvaluation at some point. The several billion dollars from share offerings will pay their debts and keep them in business short-term, but it will be near impossible to justify the current $13 billion valuation. Competition on all fronts and a lack of any differentiation in a declining market will prevent them from making substantial returns on their capital. The business will eventually be priced as the existentially threatened and hardly profitable retail company that it is.</p>\n<p>If you disagree, feel free to share your thoughts below.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop Is Likely An Eventual Zero - But You Still Shouldn't Short It</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop Is Likely An Eventual Zero - But You Still Shouldn't Short It\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-26 19:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441316-gamestop-is-likely-an-eventual-zero-but-you-still-shouldnt-short-it><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nGameStop has taken advantage of its infamous short squeeze to raise more than $1.5 billion by issuing shares.\nThe influx of cash and involvement of activist investors has revived some hope in...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441316-gamestop-is-likely-an-eventual-zero-but-you-still-shouldnt-short-it\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441316-gamestop-is-likely-an-eventual-zero-but-you-still-shouldnt-short-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193811590","content_text":"Summary\n\nGameStop has taken advantage of its infamous short squeeze to raise more than $1.5 billion by issuing shares.\nThe influx of cash and involvement of activist investors has revived some hope in the fundamental case for this stock.\nBut GameStop's eventual demise has only been delayed. Physical media is declining, disc-less consoles are inevitable, and the company has failed to diversify into any growing industry.\nUnless you expect another short squeeze, stay away. Anyone expecting GameStop shares to be much higher 2+ years from now is hoping for a miracle.\n\nBrandi Lyon Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nGME Mania\nThe short squeeze that sent GameStop (GME) from $20 to a high of $480 in January has been impressively long-lived. After a dip down to the $50 range, it has stayed above $100 for nearly 5 months. GameStop has taken advantage by raising $1.5B in cash so far.\nThat's more than their entire market cap at the beginning of the year, so it's true that their position has improved dramatically. They repaid most of their long-term debt and the charts below don't even reflect the most recent $1.1 billion they raised.\nData by YCharts\nTheir immediate future has been secured, but the long-term outlook hasn't changed. Unless you expect another short squeeze, there's no reason to think GME can go higher on fundamental value. The ~$2B they have in cash doesn't come close to their $13 billion dollar market cap. To make up that gap you would need to believe their business is worth billions, but it's currently in demise.\nThe Business\nGameStop's core business is video game hardware and software (mostly physical discs) and the remaining 11% of revenue comes from collectibles.\nPhysical videogame discs have been in decline for the same reason as DVD movies - direct digital downloads are replacing them. At the start of the PS4/Xbox One generation in 2013, about 10% of console sales were digital. By 2017 it was 50/50, 63% digital by 2019, and 72% during 2020 (probably boosted by the pandemic).\nThe trend in their revenue seems to track the decline in physical games. You can also see performance deteriorating before the pandemic ever closed stores. You could blame that performance on the seasonality of the console cycle (4th gen launched in 2013 and 5th in 2020), but revenue still fell below the previous late-stage console cycle even though gross margins shrunk.\nData by YCharts\nNot Exactly Like Blockbuster\nThe trend in physical games is the biggest factor in GameStop's future, so it's worth analyzing the incentives of both consumers and console makers to switch to digital. Both Sony's (SONY) PlayStation and Microsoft's (MSFT) Xbox have released disc-less versions of their consoles for the first time in the newest generation. They are $100 cheaper than the standard version and potentially open the door to a future where all consoles drop the disc drive.\nSource: PlayStation.com\nFirst, we should consider the benefits to consumers. The rate they've been switching to digital might already show their preference, but physical games still have advantages. Unlike a download, you can re-sell or give discs to another person. For used games, GameStop offers returns so that you can try a game and return it within 7 days if you don't like it. PlayStation and Xbox generally don't allowreturnsfor their digital stores unless there is a purchasing error. The last benefit is that discs store data which saves some space on the hard drive of the console.\nThe case for digital games is similar to streaming vs. DVDs. Avoid the store and download games straight from your console. Although download times could negate that benefit, there are new improvements that allow players to access a portion of a game as the rest downloads or pre-download a game the night before it releases. You also don't have to worry about storing and switching out physical discs, and can log into your account to access your games from a different console.\nConsole Makers\nConsole developers are more directly incentivized than consumers to push digital downloads. They can sell games to consumers through the digital store on their console, which cuts out retailers like GameStop. They could keep more profit or offer better discounts to gamers. There's also the consideration that a console that costs $100 less is more competitive with alternatives like a PC or Nintendo Switch.\nA significant but overlooked threat to physical games is the affordable game subscription services that both PlayStation and Xbox offer. The biggest advantage of used games is that they can be sold beyond the first consumer and so you can find plenty of affordable, slightly older used games and make money back from them when you're done. But I'd suggest services like the $15/month Xbox Game Pass that charge for access to a library of hundreds of games can address value-oriented customers even better than used games.\nMicrosoft.com\nGamers don't need to worry about affordable used games if developers are providing affordable access to their back catalog. It makes sense for the developer because they don't make money from used game sales anyway. By letting gamers play an older title they may be persuaded to purchase the newest sequel or paid DLC.\nAnother argument for the disc drive is backward compatibility with previous consoles. This point falls completely flat because the new generation of consoles is digitallybackward compatible, allowing users to transfer titles they purchased from the now old generation onto the new console.\nAn additional contention is that disc drives will stay because they can also be used as Blu-ray players. The truth is that DVD/Blu-Rays are much less relevant than physical games. DVD/Blu-raysaleshave dropped from $10 Billion in 2010 to less than $3B the past four quarters starting from Q2 2020.\nOn top of that, the $100 discount for buying a digital console is more than enough to buy a stand-alone Blu-ray player, so that audience can go elsewhere and isn't incentivized to buy a game console if they didn't want one already. Another way to put it is that losing Blu-ray capability shouldn't affect demand for consoles.\nThe biggest reason neither company has given up the disc drive yet, and might not next generation, is that they are worried about the competition taking over retail distribution channels. 72% of console software sales were digital in 2020 and that should only grow over time, but even the remaining 28% is still meaningful. If only one of them gave up the disc drive, the competitors could keep it and be the only ones selling in GameStop and other retailers. So it's possible that both consoles will keep disc drives until physical discs are a truly tiny portion of the market.\nUncertain Future\nThe problem for GameStop is that even if the console makers don't try to cut out discs in a new generation, the market is shrinking and has been for over a decade. GameStop isn't alone in their market either, since you can buy the same products (except used games) at Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Amazon, or even used games on eBay and other sites.\nWith so many competitors, GameStop tries to differentiate itself by offering better service and having knowledgeable staff. But their own activist investorRyan Cohendiscovered stores had dusty shelves, poor customer service, and empty racks. From how it sounds, GameStop will have to spend money just to bring their retail experience up to par. It is going to be hard to stand out when so many excellent retailers sell the same product at the same price.\nEven thethirdof sales that were from E-commerce in 2020 have to compete with Amazon and every other e-commerce platform.\nGameStop.com\nAmazon.com\nYou can find the exact same games on Amazon.com or Walmart.com and those two actually have 1-day and 2-day shipping compared to GameStop's 2-5 day shipping. Online sales might even have less of a moat than retail because the buying experience is so comparable and GameStop will never have the distribution and marketing scale that Amazon does.\nA lot is made of what GameStop's retail store base couldbecomesince they are the largest retail brand exclusively dedicated to video games and still have over 4,000 stores. The problem is that GameStop had years to make attempts since they startedclosing storesin 2014 and the then CEO said they would expand to \"gaming-adjacent tech fields”. Over these years they've attempted sellingretro/classicvideo games,failed to launcha game subscription service, and made many promises to change the business. In 2019, now departing CEO George Sherman said his GameStop 2.0 plan would turn stores into a \"cultural experience\" and a place to “hang out and try games before buying\". Ryan Cohen's report of the poor retail experience and a continuing decline in sales shows that none of their attempts have worked so far. If there was a way to transform their stores to compete as video games go digital, you would have expected one of their CEOs to have found it over the past decade.\nValuation\nA long shot for success like GameStop would have investment potential at a deep value price, but that obviously isn't the case at $180/share. They have an enterprise value of $11B but haven't had significant FCF or EBITDA since 2018 and their market will keep shrinking over time.\nData by YCharts\nGameStop trades at double the valuation of most comparable stocks.\nBest Buy (BBY) has been growing for years and is solidly profitable but trades at an EV/Sales of 0.5 compared to GameStop at 2.1. Target (TGT) and other leaders in retail trade at an EV/Sales below 1.5 and clearly don't have the existential threat to their business that GameStop does.\nGameStop would need a massive turnaround in profitability to ever justify this valuation. With their core market shrinking fast and every attempt to diversify having failed so far, it seems like the stock is massively overvalued and the business could be worth next to nothing if they can't turn a profit.\nGME Still Isn't A Short\nEven though the stock is convincingly overvalued, it's doesn't seem like a compelling short. There's no reason why GameStop should be valued above $100 per share based on the condition of their business, but that hasn't stopped it from staying above that range for months after the initial squeeze. Without a clear catalyst or idea as to what will eventually bring shares back in line with the reality of their business, which could take years, I'm going to stay away from a short position.\nIf GameStop deftly times more share offerings when prices are high, they could bring in additional billions of cash. The share price has held up since the $1 billionATM offeringin June, so they might be able to take it even further. At $180/share, each $1B of shares sold brings in about $14 in cash per share on top of the roughly ~$27/share they have now.\nAt some point, enough share offerings could tank the share price, but anyone who is short the stock risks taking a ride if it spikes back to the highs of $400+ or above in the meantime.\nEven if GME shares don't see those highs again, they could stay around the current level for a while. For reasons outlined in my article aboutRobinhood, gamblers are increasingly coming to the stock market. GME is still the most notorious meme stock, and pure speculative interest could keep shares in this range for an untold amount of time. A patient and careful short-seller might be able to manage a position for a decent return, but the uncertainty and volatility should encourage most investors to stay away from a position on either side.\nConclusion\nThe meme of GME stock is going to run into the reality of GameStop's deteriorating business and overvaluation at some point. The several billion dollars from share offerings will pay their debts and keep them in business short-term, but it will be near impossible to justify the current $13 billion valuation. Competition on all fronts and a lack of any differentiation in a declining market will prevent them from making substantial returns on their capital. The business will eventually be priced as the existentially threatened and hardly profitable retail company that it is.\nIf you disagree, feel free to share your thoughts below.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":716,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":184910613,"gmtCreate":1623680497332,"gmtModify":1634030163726,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>to the moon&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>to the moon&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$to the moon [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184910613","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346723132,"gmtCreate":1618115513626,"gmtModify":1634294825396,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Anyone tried their software and car??[龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"Anyone tried their software and car??[龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"Anyone tried their software and car??[龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346723132","repostId":"1142324412","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142324412","pubTimestamp":1617982207,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142324412?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-09 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"XPeng Inc.: A Reawakening","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142324412","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Valuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.Recent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.Company could breakeven and finally reach positive profits soon; major improvements seen in operating margins.Feared chip shortage  was not a disaster, deliveries are still strong.Government support, China's creation of an EV ecosystem.XPEV's strong deliveries describe not only excellent support from the private sector, but also the Chinese go","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Valuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.</li>\n <li>Recent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.</li>\n <li>Company could breakeven and finally reach positive profits soon; major improvements seen in operating margins.</li>\n <li>Feared chip shortage (i.e. supply disruption) was not a disaster, deliveries are still strong.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e0f3343d69719839f9b8f1d337c3984\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>The stock price of&nbsp;XPEV&nbsp;has been converging with the performance of the S&amp;P 500 since March 2021, as compared to its massive outperformance in 4Q2020. This could be view positively or negatively. On the bright side, this suggests that price performance would become more predictable with lower volatility, indicative of a broadening consensus on the fundamental prospects of the company. On the other hand, traders may be disappointed its lack of momentum. Therefore, this is probably a good time to stop viewing XPEV as purely a trade, but re-analyze its merits as a fundamentally-driven investment.</p>\n<p><i>The frenetic performance of XPEV has calmed down in recent weeks, allowing its one year performance to track the S&amp;P 500 more closely</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f04001d604ecc7892ef3a76c498578b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"236\"><span>Source: SeekingAlpha</span></p>\n<p><i>XPEV's G3 Super Long Range Smart SUV</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68446a741f9f97afc10f2149c4e13e13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: XPeng Motors (G3、P7) Intelligent electric car with Internet DNA</span></p>\n<p><b>Industry and commercial positives</b></p>\n<p>Optimism on EVs and&nbsp;strong industry growth&nbsp;rates are common knowledge by now. The following points suggest specific positives for XPEV that remain intact despite relatively ebbing momentum on the stock's price (as compared to 4Q2020):</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Deliveries met despite fears on chip shortage.</b>While the stock's price momentum appears to have ebbed, recent news continues to remain positive. At an industry level, Chinese vehicle manufacturers XPEV andNIOmanaged to manufacture the expected numbers of vehicle deliveries, despite much feared chip shortages.XPEV chalked&nbsp;in record quarterly deliveries of 13,340 EVs in Q1 2021, +487% over the year and +130% over the month in March.NIO delivered&nbsp;20,060 +423% over the year while Q1 deliveries rose 15.6% to 20,060. The challenge these EV manufacturers face now is not so much the ability to deliver on its numbers, but on being able to meet high expectations for the stock price to gain further traction.</li>\n <li><b>Government support, China's creation of an EV ecosystem.</b>XPEV's strong deliveries describe not only excellent support from the private sector, but also the Chinese government's push to develop this part of its industry. XPEV has entered into an agreement with the city of Wuhan to build a factory with a capacity of 100,000 EV units. This is a very significant piece of news, considering its deliveries of just 5,102 in March 2021. Annualizing this number, the new capacity will be more than the whole of XPEV's total historical annual production. This news is interesting and significant since it was just released this week, suggesting it may have yet to be factored into analysts' forecast numbers. This is made more important as XPEV has always been considered a laggard in production capabilities to its larger cousin NIO. General Chinese government support for the EV ecosystem is strong, and the new facility in Wuhan echoes earlier provincial government financial support ($77m) in Guangdong. The reality is, for EVs to gain traction, government willingness to support infrastructure initiatives are highly important (e.g. permits for charging stations, creating incentives to convert from old polluting vehicles to green vehicles, etc.). With China's tradition of central planning, the EV ecosystem is placed on the right footing.</li>\n <li><b>Listing in Hong Kong adds to investor base and liquidity.</b>Going forward,XPEV,NIO, and&nbsp;LI&nbsp;intend tolistin Hong Kong this year. This is a strategic move, and makes the valuation of these companies less susceptible by US political bashing (e.g. the threat of being de-listed) should it occur, since it reflects a wider geographical base. The valuations of these companies may even get a boost given greater global liquidity due to added trading in the Asian time zone.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>Of note, in late March, XPEV held an&nbsp;autonomous driving expedition&nbsp;covering eight cities in China and 3,675 kilometers. The exercise was successful, as minimal human intervention was needed during the expedition and adds another brownie point to XPEV's research and development efforts, placing XPEV on the&nbsp;competitive landscape&nbsp;against rivals such as TSLA and NIO on autonomous driving. Apparently, XPEV's autonomous driving results&nbsp;performed better&nbsp;than TSLA's with fewer human interventions per 100km and better navigation in complex situations.</p>\n<p><b>XPEV's improving financials</b></p>\n<p>Now that we have several quarters of financial data on XPEV, it is worth reviewing how its metrics have been performing. Firstly, market expectations aside, deliveries have been very good as abovementioned, and this is flowing through to revenue numbers. As shown in the below table, growth has been very strong, and revenues are expected to more than double in 2021 and continue to double in 2022. Such growth rates place XPEV at the top end of manufacturing firms, as expected of the fast-growing EV market.</p>\n<p>Another point to note is the improvement in operating margins. As with any \"new tech\" company, initial investments would cause hugely negative operating margins in the beginning. What's important is the company's ability to improve margins and reduce costs over time. In this respect, XPEV has done a good job, with operating margins improving sequentially each quarter. Of note, operating margins started to see major improvements between the Jun-2020 (-142%) and Dec-2020 (-39%) quarters as shown in the table below. Given this trend, the company is likely to breakeven and register positive profits soon, which could be a catalytic re-rating for XPEV. When we pair this analysis with the stock price, it appears that XPEV's recently soft stock price performance is not justified.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the balance sheet is expected to remain strong. Equity to total liabilities &amp; equity is 23% as at Dec-2020. As abovementioned, further capital raises with a forthcoming Hong Kong listing will add to XPEV's cash buffer.</p>\n<p><i>XPEV's performance improvement in both revenue and operating margin trends appear to have been ignored by the market due to recent the broad market capitulation</i></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8258dce0cc10e8118a23afce7655bed\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"737\"><span>*EST = estimate by analysts' consensus from SeekingAlpha</span></p>\n<p><b>XPEV's valuation: somewhere in the middle</b></p>\n<p>XPEV's stock price has done well over the last 6 months versus peers. On a TTM P/S, XPEV is near the middle although its FWD P/S is trading at a premium. However, there could be a general re-rating of the P/S of the sector if the Chinese EV manufacturers reach breakeven in 2021 and record positive profits (our base case belief, given the prevailing trend in XPEV's improving operating margins). This will then allow better price discovery when the companies can then be valued on their P/E ratios.</p>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa975ce545e950a20f809bcc7f698ef6\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"594\">\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr></tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>Conclusion and Risks</b></p>\n<p>XPEV's stock price may benefit from two key catalysts: (1) expansion of manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will concretely raise visibility of revenue growth which is expected to double; (2) a valuation regime change as it progresses from a loss making company to a profitable one, expected by this year. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the valuation is not lofty as compared to price levels in 4Q2020, having fallen over the last couple of months.</p>\n<p>Competition may exist and remain intense, but given the large size of China's market and that there are only a couple of notable players (i.e. NIO, LI), the market remains largely an oligopoly which allows XPEV to retain pricing power.</p>\n<p>Much feared risks of execution in the past appear to have materialized but not in a big way, i.e. the previously expected chip shortage. Given the progression to a post-COVID economy, supply chain links should improve and reduce similar risks in the future.</p>\n<p>On a standalone basis, XPEV's prospects appear bright, and now the key hurdle is whether the NASDAQ will find momentum and exceed previous highs. The base case for this should lean towards the positive as the market is merely in the first year of the economic recovery after the pandemic. Recent price consolidation appears to have created a technical setup for a reawakening of price momentum as consumer activity revives post-pandemic.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng Inc.: A Reawakening</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng Inc.: A Reawakening\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-09 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418326-xpeng-inc-reawakening><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nValuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.\nRecent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.\nCompany could breakeven and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418326-xpeng-inc-reawakening\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418326-xpeng-inc-reawakening","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1142324412","content_text":"Summary\n\nValuation is middling but not overvalued like in the past.\nRecent announcement of capacity expansion in Wuhan lends better operational and sales visibility.\nCompany could breakeven and finally reach positive profits soon; major improvements seen in operating margins.\nFeared chip shortage (i.e. supply disruption) was not a disaster, deliveries are still strong.\n\nPhoto by Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nThe stock price of XPEV has been converging with the performance of the S&P 500 since March 2021, as compared to its massive outperformance in 4Q2020. This could be view positively or negatively. On the bright side, this suggests that price performance would become more predictable with lower volatility, indicative of a broadening consensus on the fundamental prospects of the company. On the other hand, traders may be disappointed its lack of momentum. Therefore, this is probably a good time to stop viewing XPEV as purely a trade, but re-analyze its merits as a fundamentally-driven investment.\nThe frenetic performance of XPEV has calmed down in recent weeks, allowing its one year performance to track the S&P 500 more closely\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nXPEV's G3 Super Long Range Smart SUV\nSource: XPeng Motors (G3、P7) Intelligent electric car with Internet DNA\nIndustry and commercial positives\nOptimism on EVs and strong industry growth rates are common knowledge by now. The following points suggest specific positives for XPEV that remain intact despite relatively ebbing momentum on the stock's price (as compared to 4Q2020):\n\nDeliveries met despite fears on chip shortage.While the stock's price momentum appears to have ebbed, recent news continues to remain positive. At an industry level, Chinese vehicle manufacturers XPEV andNIOmanaged to manufacture the expected numbers of vehicle deliveries, despite much feared chip shortages.XPEV chalked in record quarterly deliveries of 13,340 EVs in Q1 2021, +487% over the year and +130% over the month in March.NIO delivered 20,060 +423% over the year while Q1 deliveries rose 15.6% to 20,060. The challenge these EV manufacturers face now is not so much the ability to deliver on its numbers, but on being able to meet high expectations for the stock price to gain further traction.\nGovernment support, China's creation of an EV ecosystem.XPEV's strong deliveries describe not only excellent support from the private sector, but also the Chinese government's push to develop this part of its industry. XPEV has entered into an agreement with the city of Wuhan to build a factory with a capacity of 100,000 EV units. This is a very significant piece of news, considering its deliveries of just 5,102 in March 2021. Annualizing this number, the new capacity will be more than the whole of XPEV's total historical annual production. This news is interesting and significant since it was just released this week, suggesting it may have yet to be factored into analysts' forecast numbers. This is made more important as XPEV has always been considered a laggard in production capabilities to its larger cousin NIO. General Chinese government support for the EV ecosystem is strong, and the new facility in Wuhan echoes earlier provincial government financial support ($77m) in Guangdong. The reality is, for EVs to gain traction, government willingness to support infrastructure initiatives are highly important (e.g. permits for charging stations, creating incentives to convert from old polluting vehicles to green vehicles, etc.). With China's tradition of central planning, the EV ecosystem is placed on the right footing.\nListing in Hong Kong adds to investor base and liquidity.Going forward,XPEV,NIO, and LI intend tolistin Hong Kong this year. This is a strategic move, and makes the valuation of these companies less susceptible by US political bashing (e.g. the threat of being de-listed) should it occur, since it reflects a wider geographical base. The valuations of these companies may even get a boost given greater global liquidity due to added trading in the Asian time zone.\n\nOf note, in late March, XPEV held an autonomous driving expedition covering eight cities in China and 3,675 kilometers. The exercise was successful, as minimal human intervention was needed during the expedition and adds another brownie point to XPEV's research and development efforts, placing XPEV on the competitive landscape against rivals such as TSLA and NIO on autonomous driving. Apparently, XPEV's autonomous driving results performed better than TSLA's with fewer human interventions per 100km and better navigation in complex situations.\nXPEV's improving financials\nNow that we have several quarters of financial data on XPEV, it is worth reviewing how its metrics have been performing. Firstly, market expectations aside, deliveries have been very good as abovementioned, and this is flowing through to revenue numbers. As shown in the below table, growth has been very strong, and revenues are expected to more than double in 2021 and continue to double in 2022. Such growth rates place XPEV at the top end of manufacturing firms, as expected of the fast-growing EV market.\nAnother point to note is the improvement in operating margins. As with any \"new tech\" company, initial investments would cause hugely negative operating margins in the beginning. What's important is the company's ability to improve margins and reduce costs over time. In this respect, XPEV has done a good job, with operating margins improving sequentially each quarter. Of note, operating margins started to see major improvements between the Jun-2020 (-142%) and Dec-2020 (-39%) quarters as shown in the table below. Given this trend, the company is likely to breakeven and register positive profits soon, which could be a catalytic re-rating for XPEV. When we pair this analysis with the stock price, it appears that XPEV's recently soft stock price performance is not justified.\nMeanwhile, the balance sheet is expected to remain strong. Equity to total liabilities & equity is 23% as at Dec-2020. As abovementioned, further capital raises with a forthcoming Hong Kong listing will add to XPEV's cash buffer.\nXPEV's performance improvement in both revenue and operating margin trends appear to have been ignored by the market due to recent the broad market capitulation\n*EST = estimate by analysts' consensus from SeekingAlpha\nXPEV's valuation: somewhere in the middle\nXPEV's stock price has done well over the last 6 months versus peers. On a TTM P/S, XPEV is near the middle although its FWD P/S is trading at a premium. However, there could be a general re-rating of the P/S of the sector if the Chinese EV manufacturers reach breakeven in 2021 and record positive profits (our base case belief, given the prevailing trend in XPEV's improving operating margins). This will then allow better price discovery when the companies can then be valued on their P/E ratios.\n\n\n\n\n\n\nConclusion and Risks\nXPEV's stock price may benefit from two key catalysts: (1) expansion of manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will concretely raise visibility of revenue growth which is expected to double; (2) a valuation regime change as it progresses from a loss making company to a profitable one, expected by this year. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the valuation is not lofty as compared to price levels in 4Q2020, having fallen over the last couple of months.\nCompetition may exist and remain intense, but given the large size of China's market and that there are only a couple of notable players (i.e. NIO, LI), the market remains largely an oligopoly which allows XPEV to retain pricing power.\nMuch feared risks of execution in the past appear to have materialized but not in a big way, i.e. the previously expected chip shortage. Given the progression to a post-COVID economy, supply chain links should improve and reduce similar risks in the future.\nOn a standalone basis, XPEV's prospects appear bright, and now the key hurdle is whether the NASDAQ will find momentum and exceed previous highs. The base case for this should lean towards the positive as the market is merely in the first year of the economic recovery after the pandemic. Recent price consolidation appears to have created a technical setup for a reawakening of price momentum as consumer activity revives post-pandemic.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":340728359,"gmtCreate":1617496734271,"gmtModify":1634520807041,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有实力就给我们看几个","listText":"有实力就给我们看几个","text":"有实力就给我们看几个","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340728359","repostId":"340129012","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":340129012,"gmtCreate":1617358728932,"gmtModify":1617358728932,"author":{"id":"3502860692623653","authorId":"3502860692623653","name":"爱上趋势股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17f4521614b0cae62aff9fa7fa80fa77","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"赚了不少，简单晒个单（4/2）","htmlText":"说一下，我的长电科技终于解套了，这个解套没啥技术含量，就是拿额外的钱补。 重仓持股深套，越补越跌，期间也感到了恐慌，这次是幸运的，以后决不允许在发生这样的错误，大家互相监督。 刚刚写了篇长文，阐述了一些心得，大家可以去看看。 简单说一下这次科技，今天总算强了一会儿，跟我之前的预期是一致的，等【中芯国际】的财报。 但是，这期间有多煎熬，大家心里都清楚。 所以，今天在解套后，我第一时间纠正了错误持仓，进行了分仓处理。 就是按照之前的：趋势股+主线题材股 的组合。 趋势股，主要就是从【趋势King】组合里面调，我主要爱选里支撑位近一些的。 主线题材，科技股： 龙头是： 中晶科技，可惜没买进去，看看下周二，我大概会买一点点。 之所以说科技股也不是很强，因为昨天的龙头【中瓷电子】没有连板，如果下周科技继续走强的话，它应该还会反弹。最理想的状态是，类似【合兴股份】，否则，这种题材股不能长留。 科技股的趋势龙头： 长电科技、士兰微，都很强，但这波明显士兰微是中军，更值得关注。 从形态上也能分出强弱，一个版块长期下跌反弹，大部分股票都在超跌反弹，而真正的龙头正在创历史新高：就这些吧，周一晚上等我的大消息汇总。 趋势King组合创新高： 调入了士兰微","listText":"说一下，我的长电科技终于解套了，这个解套没啥技术含量，就是拿额外的钱补。 重仓持股深套，越补越跌，期间也感到了恐慌，这次是幸运的，以后决不允许在发生这样的错误，大家互相监督。 刚刚写了篇长文，阐述了一些心得，大家可以去看看。 简单说一下这次科技，今天总算强了一会儿，跟我之前的预期是一致的，等【中芯国际】的财报。 但是，这期间有多煎熬，大家心里都清楚。 所以，今天在解套后，我第一时间纠正了错误持仓，进行了分仓处理。 就是按照之前的：趋势股+主线题材股 的组合。 趋势股，主要就是从【趋势King】组合里面调，我主要爱选里支撑位近一些的。 主线题材，科技股： 龙头是： 中晶科技，可惜没买进去，看看下周二，我大概会买一点点。 之所以说科技股也不是很强，因为昨天的龙头【中瓷电子】没有连板，如果下周科技继续走强的话，它应该还会反弹。最理想的状态是，类似【合兴股份】，否则，这种题材股不能长留。 科技股的趋势龙头： 长电科技、士兰微，都很强，但这波明显士兰微是中军，更值得关注。 从形态上也能分出强弱，一个版块长期下跌反弹，大部分股票都在超跌反弹，而真正的龙头正在创历史新高：就这些吧，周一晚上等我的大消息汇总。 趋势King组合创新高： 调入了士兰微","text":"说一下，我的长电科技终于解套了，这个解套没啥技术含量，就是拿额外的钱补。 重仓持股深套，越补越跌，期间也感到了恐慌，这次是幸运的，以后决不允许在发生这样的错误，大家互相监督。 刚刚写了篇长文，阐述了一些心得，大家可以去看看。 简单说一下这次科技，今天总算强了一会儿，跟我之前的预期是一致的，等【中芯国际】的财报。 但是，这期间有多煎熬，大家心里都清楚。 所以，今天在解套后，我第一时间纠正了错误持仓，进行了分仓处理。 就是按照之前的：趋势股+主线题材股 的组合。 趋势股，主要就是从【趋势King】组合里面调，我主要爱选里支撑位近一些的。 主线题材，科技股： 龙头是： 中晶科技，可惜没买进去，看看下周二，我大概会买一点点。 之所以说科技股也不是很强，因为昨天的龙头【中瓷电子】没有连板，如果下周科技继续走强的话，它应该还会反弹。最理想的状态是，类似【合兴股份】，否则，这种题材股不能长留。 科技股的趋势龙头： 长电科技、士兰微，都很强，但这波明显士兰微是中军，更值得关注。 从形态上也能分出强弱，一个版块长期下跌反弹，大部分股票都在超跌反弹，而真正的龙头正在创历史新高：就这些吧，周一晚上等我的大消息汇总。 趋势King组合创新高： 调入了士兰微","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4de8f7cd5c8abd2e814f6e7a52cda6a4","width":"589","height":"345"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9bc2b1ee50469b9b2b7628243830ce7","width":"506","height":"461"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65c21f42b7225eab693e877a876885f5","width":"578","height":"579"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340129012","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":351855138,"gmtCreate":1616588320924,"gmtModify":1634525065427,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Xiaomi has best in class performance and price. I support you[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"Xiaomi has best in class performance and price. I support you[得意]&nbsp;","text":"Xiaomi has best in class performance and price. I support 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