投资初心的个人主页 - 老虎社区

投资初心

投资初心

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

514关注

5粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-10-08

[微笑] [微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-08

[微笑] [微笑]

福特挖角苹果汽车项目主管Doug Field

2021-09-08

[微笑] [微笑]

福特挖角苹果汽车项目主管Doug Field

2021-08-24

[微笑] [微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-08

[微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-12

强势，可以期待。

2021-06-05

[微笑] [微笑]

Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>

2021-05-24

[微笑] [微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-30

等待适合买的，

2021-03-29

反弹行情吧，也有量。

2021-03-28

都不给我上车的机会

2021-03-18

开始走强起来了

2021-02-16

$老虎证券(TIGR)$买少了[微笑]

2021-02-11

[呆住]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-08

哦

提醒：春节假期主要市场休市安排一览

2021-02-08

[微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [开心]

京东物流再传上市，刘强东这次真急了？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3559090183564391","uuid":"3559090183564391","gmtCreate":1595996161174,"gmtModify":1596000121928,"name":"投资初心","pinyin":"tzcxtouzichuxin","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":5,"headSize":514,"tweetSize":16,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":6,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.22","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"02aa7f16703b4ce4ace6f1a7665789cc-1","templateUuid":"02aa7f16703b4ce4ace6f1a7665789cc","name":"知识体验官","description":"观看学堂课程满5节","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb5ae275631fb96a92d475cdc85d2302","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2660a1935bd2105e97c9915619936c3","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.08.06","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2006,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.08.05","exceedPercentage":"93.25%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.11%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":6,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":823424668,"gmtCreate":1633656260433,"gmtModify":1633656260647,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823424668","repostId":"1176501017","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":880222789,"gmtCreate":1631061027141,"gmtModify":1632884912129,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880222789","repostId":"2165357785","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2165357785","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631056951,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2165357785?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 07:22","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"福特挖角苹果汽车项目主管Doug Field","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165357785","media":"新浪美股","summary":"福特汽车周二宣布，已聘请前特斯拉和苹果高管Doug Field担任其首席先进技术和嵌入式系统官。　　Field曾领导特斯拉Model 3的开发，此前担任苹果公司特殊项目的副总裁，据称这其中包括领导该公司的秘密造车项目Project Titan。　　据报道，Field曾在苹果公司担任Mac硬件工程副总裁，在被特斯拉挖走五年之后重返苹果公司，加入该公司秘密造车计划Project Titan。　　苹果公司随后证实Field已经离任，并对其在该公司作出的贡献表示感谢。","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7129b39a30aed386731a5f261016b90c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>周二宣布，已聘请前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>高管Doug Field担任其首席先进技术和嵌入式系统官。</p>\n<p>Field曾领导特斯拉Model 3的开发，此前担任苹果公司特殊项目的副总裁，据称这其中包括领导该公司的秘密造车项目Project Titan。</p>\n<p>福特表示，Field将与福特首席产品平台和运营官Hau Thai-Tang密切合作，在Ford+增长计划的基础上创造下一代福特互联产品和体验。</p>\n<p>Field的职责将包括领导福特开发下一代“Blue Oval Intelligence”技术堆栈，以交付<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>联网汽车。Field将监督公司的嵌入式软件和硬件组织，包括车辆控制、企业连接、功能、集成和验证、架构和平台、驾驶员辅助技术和数字工程工具项目。</p>\n<p>据报道，Field曾在苹果公司担任Mac硬件工程副总裁，在被特斯拉挖走五年之后重返苹果公司，加入该公司秘密造车计划Project Titan。</p>\n<p>苹果公司随后证实Field已经离任，并对其在该公司作出的贡献表示感谢。</p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>福特挖角苹果汽车项目主管Doug Field</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n福特挖角苹果汽车项目主管Doug Field\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-08 07:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-08/doc-iktzqtyt4670350.shtml><strong>新浪美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>福特汽车周二宣布，已聘请前特斯拉和苹果高管Doug Field担任其首席先进技术和嵌入式系统官。\nField曾领导特斯拉Model 3的开发，此前担任苹果公司特殊项目的副总裁，据称这其中包括领导该公司的秘密造车项目Project Titan。\n福特表示，Field将与福特首席产品平台和运营官Hau Thai-Tang密切合作，在Ford+增长计划的基础上创造下一代福特互联产品和体验。\nField的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-08/doc-iktzqtyt4670350.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7129b39a30aed386731a5f261016b90c","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-08/doc-iktzqtyt4670350.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2165357785","content_text":"福特汽车周二宣布，已聘请前特斯拉和苹果高管Doug Field担任其首席先进技术和嵌入式系统官。\nField曾领导特斯拉Model 3的开发，此前担任苹果公司特殊项目的副总裁，据称这其中包括领导该公司的秘密造车项目Project Titan。\n福特表示，Field将与福特首席产品平台和运营官Hau Thai-Tang密切合作，在Ford+增长计划的基础上创造下一代福特互联产品和体验。\nField的职责将包括领导福特开发下一代“Blue Oval Intelligence”技术堆栈，以交付智能联网汽车。Field将监督公司的嵌入式软件和硬件组织，包括车辆控制、企业连接、功能、集成和验证、架构和平台、驾驶员辅助技术和数字工程工具项目。\n据报道，Field曾在苹果公司担任Mac硬件工程副总裁，在被特斯拉挖走五年之后重返苹果公司，加入该公司秘密造车计划Project Titan。\n苹果公司随后证实Field已经离任，并对其在该公司作出的贡献表示感谢。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":880222204,"gmtCreate":1631061010108,"gmtModify":1632884912451,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880222204","repostId":"2165357785","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2165357785","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631056951,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2165357785?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 07:22","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"福特挖角苹果汽车项目主管Doug Field","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165357785","media":"新浪美股","summary":"福特汽车周二宣布，已聘请前特斯拉和苹果高管Doug Field担任其首席先进技术和嵌入式系统官。　　Field曾领导特斯拉Model 3的开发，此前担任苹果公司特殊项目的副总裁，据称这其中包括领导该公司的秘密造车项目Project Titan。　　据报道，Field曾在苹果公司担任Mac硬件工程副总裁，在被特斯拉挖走五年之后重返苹果公司，加入该公司秘密造车计划Project Titan。　　苹果公司随后证实Field已经离任，并对其在该公司作出的贡献表示感谢。","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7129b39a30aed386731a5f261016b90c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>周二宣布，已聘请前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>高管Doug Field担任其首席先进技术和嵌入式系统官。</p>\n<p>Field曾领导特斯拉Model 3的开发，此前担任苹果公司特殊项目的副总裁，据称这其中包括领导该公司的秘密造车项目Project Titan。</p>\n<p>福特表示，Field将与福特首席产品平台和运营官Hau Thai-Tang密切合作，在Ford+增长计划的基础上创造下一代福特互联产品和体验。</p>\n<p>Field的职责将包括领导福特开发下一代“Blue Oval Intelligence”技术堆栈，以交付<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>联网汽车。Field将监督公司的嵌入式软件和硬件组织，包括车辆控制、企业连接、功能、集成和验证、架构和平台、驾驶员辅助技术和数字工程工具项目。</p>\n<p>据报道，Field曾在苹果公司担任Mac硬件工程副总裁，在被特斯拉挖走五年之后重返苹果公司，加入该公司秘密造车计划Project Titan。</p>\n<p>苹果公司随后证实Field已经离任，并对其在该公司作出的贡献表示感谢。</p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>福特挖角苹果汽车项目主管Doug Field</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n福特挖角苹果汽车项目主管Doug Field\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-08 07:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-08/doc-iktzqtyt4670350.shtml><strong>新浪美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>福特汽车周二宣布，已聘请前特斯拉和苹果高管Doug Field担任其首席先进技术和嵌入式系统官。\nField曾领导特斯拉Model 3的开发，此前担任苹果公司特殊项目的副总裁，据称这其中包括领导该公司的秘密造车项目Project Titan。\n福特表示，Field将与福特首席产品平台和运营官Hau Thai-Tang密切合作，在Ford+增长计划的基础上创造下一代福特互联产品和体验。\nField的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-08/doc-iktzqtyt4670350.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7129b39a30aed386731a5f261016b90c","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-08/doc-iktzqtyt4670350.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2165357785","content_text":"福特汽车周二宣布，已聘请前特斯拉和苹果高管Doug Field担任其首席先进技术和嵌入式系统官。\nField曾领导特斯拉Model 3的开发，此前担任苹果公司特殊项目的副总裁，据称这其中包括领导该公司的秘密造车项目Project Titan。\n福特表示，Field将与福特首席产品平台和运营官Hau Thai-Tang密切合作，在Ford+增长计划的基础上创造下一代福特互联产品和体验。\nField的职责将包括领导福特开发下一代“Blue Oval Intelligence”技术堆栈，以交付智能联网汽车。Field将监督公司的嵌入式软件和硬件组织，包括车辆控制、企业连接、功能、集成和验证、架构和平台、驾驶员辅助技术和数字工程工具项目。\n据报道，Field曾在苹果公司担任Mac硬件工程副总裁，在被特斯拉挖走五年之后重返苹果公司，加入该公司秘密造车计划Project Titan。\n苹果公司随后证实Field已经离任，并对其在该公司作出的贡献表示感谢。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":834985054,"gmtCreate":1629767086178,"gmtModify":1633682610245,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834985054","repostId":"2161770751","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3864,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":891882728,"gmtCreate":1628379279464,"gmtModify":1633751430962,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891882728","repostId":"1186953205","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":188508823,"gmtCreate":1623453293962,"gmtModify":1634033103726,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"强势，可以期待。","listText":"强势，可以期待。","text":"强势，可以期待。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/316afa432dabb2f0921e270c075cacd5","width":"1125","height":"3166"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188508823","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":112327024,"gmtCreate":1622852503468,"gmtModify":1634097433173,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112327024","repostId":"1154529120","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154529120","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622810459,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1154529120?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 20:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154529120","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:. Alibaba Group'","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险并存，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以当前相当低的估值购买的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 efetova/iStock 提供，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了高增长的中国消费市场的机会。同时，通过一系列的创业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在额外的行业，比如云计算。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。看到股价上涨至 500 美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这在短期内不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自首次公开募股以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但还应该提到的是，2020 年下半年股价确实下跌，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服的 IPO 计划被叫停，2020 年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价现在基本与一年前持平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在那段时间内继续取得强劲的业绩。例如，上一季度阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，约为50%。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴财报发布中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于年化用户增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW还设法将其 EBITDA 同比增长 25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管对评级管理关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但仍实现了这一目标。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，营业收入增长速度更快，经阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款调整后，营业收入同比增长 48%。我认为，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的，以便更清楚地了解阿里巴巴平均一个季度的潜在“核心”盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技公司而言，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是由于投资者情绪疲软导致中国风险敞口和对监管的担忧导致的多重压缩的结果。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前 220 美元的价格计算，与目前分析师一致的目标价 298 美元相比，阿里巴巴的股价有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨 35%。分析师目标价通常以 1 年为期限发布，因此，如果分析师社区是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项很好的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个价格目标似乎一点也不离谱，因为 298 美元相当于今年预期净利润的约 29 倍，或明年净利润的 23 倍。当我们谈论 2022 年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你看的是12个月的窗口，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从长远来看，那么 500 美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能达到的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为 20 美元，并且市盈率为 25，那么股票的交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 25 美元，市盈率为 20 倍，那么股票交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 17 美元，交易价格为净利润的 29 倍，那么股价将（略低于）500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有许多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收入就越低。这反过来意味着价格目标可以更快实现，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们查看阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为 30-40 倍，相对于目前的股票估值（约为今年收益的 20 倍），其交易价格显然大幅溢价。我认为目前的估值太低了，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到 30 倍、35 倍甚至 40 倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股票估值可能会更低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，股票确实有一些估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设股票未来的交易价格是净利润的23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大盘股的估值相比，也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊 (AMZN) 的交易价格是今年市盈率的 59 倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用 23 倍市盈率使阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为 21.70 美元。什么时候会是这样？在下图中，我们看到了今年、明年（2022 财年）和 2023 财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW到 2023 年将无法实现每股 22 美元的盈利，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到 2023 年每股收益会增长 100% 以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约 27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约 1.5 年的时间才能将每股收益从 15.20 美元（2023 年估计）增长到我们的目标 21.70 美元。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024 年和 2025 年的增长率仅为 20%，到 2025 年底，每股收益也可能达到 21.70 美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到 2025 年底（即 4.5 年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能达到 500 美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要高市盈率——我相信，在净利润的 23 倍下，阿里巴巴-SW不会很贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守，假设 2023 年每股收益预测过高 10%，并且 2023 年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长 17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年 27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW 2026 年的每股收益将达到 21.70 美元，未来 5.5 年内股价将升至 500 美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来 5.5 年内股价从当前水平上涨 130%，年化回报率为 16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结这一部分，我会说<i>是的，爸爸可以达到 500 美元</i>——但实际上这需要几年时间。到 2020 年代中期，这对我来说似乎是一个非常容易实现的目标，尽管当然，没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司从多个长期宏观趋势中实现了强劲的增长和利润，例如中国不断增长的消费者支出、不断增长的电子商务市场份额和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能是一个非常有益的游戏的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个有力选择。我属于后一类，因此以当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将有显着上涨空间。然而，根据你的风险承受能力以及你如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，你可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 20:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险并存，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以当前相当低的估值购买的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 efetova/iStock 提供，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了高增长的中国消费市场的机会。同时，通过一系列的创业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在额外的行业，比如云计算。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。看到股价上涨至 500 美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这在短期内不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自首次公开募股以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但还应该提到的是，2020 年下半年股价确实下跌，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服的 IPO 计划被叫停，2020 年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价现在基本与一年前持平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在那段时间内继续取得强劲的业绩。例如，上一季度阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，约为50%。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴财报发布中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于年化用户增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW还设法将其 EBITDA 同比增长 25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管对评级管理关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但仍实现了这一目标。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，营业收入增长速度更快，经阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款调整后，营业收入同比增长 48%。我认为，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的，以便更清楚地了解阿里巴巴平均一个季度的潜在“核心”盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技公司而言，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是由于投资者情绪疲软导致中国风险敞口和对监管的担忧导致的多重压缩的结果。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前 220 美元的价格计算，与目前分析师一致的目标价 298 美元相比，阿里巴巴的股价有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨 35%。分析师目标价通常以 1 年为期限发布，因此，如果分析师社区是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项很好的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个价格目标似乎一点也不离谱，因为 298 美元相当于今年预期净利润的约 29 倍，或明年净利润的 23 倍。当我们谈论 2022 年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你看的是12个月的窗口，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从长远来看，那么 500 美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能达到的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为 20 美元，并且市盈率为 25，那么股票的交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 25 美元，市盈率为 20 倍，那么股票交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 17 美元，交易价格为净利润的 29 倍，那么股价将（略低于）500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有许多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收入就越低。这反过来意味着价格目标可以更快实现，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们查看阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为 30-40 倍，相对于目前的股票估值（约为今年收益的 20 倍），其交易价格显然大幅溢价。我认为目前的估值太低了，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到 30 倍、35 倍甚至 40 倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股票估值可能会更低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，股票确实有一些估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设股票未来的交易价格是净利润的23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大盘股的估值相比，也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊 (AMZN) 的交易价格是今年市盈率的 59 倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用 23 倍市盈率使阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为 21.70 美元。什么时候会是这样？在下图中，我们看到了今年、明年（2022 财年）和 2023 财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW到 2023 年将无法实现每股 22 美元的盈利，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到 2023 年每股收益会增长 100% 以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约 27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约 1.5 年的时间才能将每股收益从 15.20 美元（2023 年估计）增长到我们的目标 21.70 美元。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024 年和 2025 年的增长率仅为 20%，到 2025 年底，每股收益也可能达到 21.70 美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到 2025 年底（即 4.5 年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能达到 500 美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要高市盈率——我相信，在净利润的 23 倍下，阿里巴巴-SW不会很贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守，假设 2023 年每股收益预测过高 10%，并且 2023 年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长 17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年 27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW 2026 年的每股收益将达到 21.70 美元，未来 5.5 年内股价将升至 500 美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来 5.5 年内股价从当前水平上涨 130%，年化回报率为 16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结这一部分，我会说<i>是的，爸爸可以达到 500 美元</i>——但实际上这需要几年时间。到 2020 年代中期，这对我来说似乎是一个非常容易实现的目标，尽管当然，没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司从多个长期宏观趋势中实现了强劲的增长和利润，例如中国不断增长的消费者支出、不断增长的电子商务市场份额和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能是一个非常有益的游戏的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个有力选择。我属于后一类，因此以当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将有显着上涨空间。然而，根据你的风险承受能力以及你如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，你可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154529120","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.\nI believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.\nIn the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.\n\nPhoto by efetova/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nAlibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.\nBABA Stock Price\nSince its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:\nData byYCharts\nShares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.\nAlibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and fears about regulation.\nAt its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500?\nThe answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.\nWe see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:\nData byYCharts\nAt 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.\nI still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.\nIf we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:\nData byYCharts\nIf analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.\nData byYCharts\nAnalysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.\nWe can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.\nSo, to sum this section up, I'd sayyes, BABA can hit $500-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.\nIs Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?\nAlibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.\nFor those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":131998778,"gmtCreate":1621819982294,"gmtModify":1634186378361,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131998778","repostId":"1105006567","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355572909,"gmtCreate":1617091721901,"gmtModify":1634522707207,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"等待适合买的，","listText":"等待适合买的，","text":"等待适合买的，","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/888ac5447fdee0bea5636668cd88ded4","width":"1125","height":"3035"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355572909","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355068135,"gmtCreate":1617015631327,"gmtModify":1634523136503,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"反弹行情吧，也有量。","listText":"反弹行情吧，也有量。","text":"反弹行情吧，也有量。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aac232919d97a3d8013cc2d10063663","width":"1125","height":"3049"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355068135","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":352116065,"gmtCreate":1616905729457,"gmtModify":1634523579094,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"都不给我上车的机会","listText":"都不给我上车的机会","text":"都不给我上车的机会","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bffc550994c19453d7cf3acd7f47182e","width":"1125","height":"3049"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352116065","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":327037401,"gmtCreate":1616037882703,"gmtModify":1703496719586,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"开始走强起来了","listText":"开始走强起来了","text":"开始走强起来了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2916da132d7b00f716c59d1623242181","width":"1125","height":"1909"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327037401","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":382552444,"gmtCreate":1613469450488,"gmtModify":1634553557357,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>买少了[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>买少了[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$买少了[微笑]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7161f83abf893a3cefd6921b689d9899","width":"1242","height":"1767"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382552444","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":388979751,"gmtCreate":1613016359773,"gmtModify":1703768399797,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388979751","repostId":"1168524354","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1504,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":389853551,"gmtCreate":1612753583673,"gmtModify":1703764624823,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"哦","listText":"哦","text":"哦","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389853551","repostId":"1140942389","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140942389","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1612233347,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1140942389?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-02 10:35","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"提醒：春节假期主要市场休市安排一览","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140942389","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"春节假期即将来临，敬请广大投资者留意，提前做好资金安排。$老虎证券$祝您及家人新春快乐，牛年大吉！2月11日（星期四）除夕上午开市，下午休市；2月12日（星期五）至2月15日（星期一）全天休市；2月11日（星期四）至2月17日（星期三）休市，2月18日（星期四）起照常开市。CBOE 下 VIX 波动率期货于2月15日10：00提前休市。SGX下天然橡胶货于2021年2月11日以及2021年2月12日整个交易日休市。","content":"<p>春节假期即将来临，敬请广大投资者留意，提前做好资金安排。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">老虎证券</a>祝您及家人新春快乐，牛年大吉！</p><p>春节期间各地股市休市安排如下：(均为当地时间）</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27cfee666051c46a31c824a795046629\" tg-width=\"1790\" tg-height=\"788\"></p><p><b>美股：</b></p><p>2月15日（星期一）因美国总统日全天休市。</p><p><b>港股：</b></p><p>2月11日（星期四）除夕上午开市，下午休市；</p><p>2月12日（星期五）至2月15日（星期一）全天休市；</p><p>2月16日（星期二）起照常开市。</p><p><b>A股：</b></p><p>2月11日（星期四）至2月17日（星期三）休市，2月18日（星期四）起照常开市。</p><p><b>沪、深股通：</b></p><p>2月11日（星期四）至2月17日（星期三）关闭；2月18日（星期四）起照常开通。</p><p><b>港股通：</b></p><p>2月9日（星期二）至2月17日（星期三）关闭服务，2月18日（星期四）起照常开通。</p><p><b>英股：</b></p><p>照常交易</p><p><b>澳股：</b></p><p>照常交易</p><p><b>新加坡市场：</b></p><p>2月11日（星期四）交易半日。</p><p>2月12日（星期五）全天休市。</p><p><b>期货市场：</b></p><p>HKEX下美元黄金、指数类货于2月11日12：30休市，个股期货于2月11日12：00休市；指数类期货、人民币、个股期货、美元黄金于2月12日以及2月15日整个交易日休市。</p><p>GME&nbsp;Group下外汇、债券、比特币、股指、能源、贵金属期货于2月15日12：00（北京时间16日凌晨02:00）提前休市；活畜、大小谷物、稻谷期货于2月15日全天休市。</p><p>CBOE&nbsp;下&nbsp;VIX&nbsp;波动率期货于2月15日10：00提前休市。</p><p>SGX下天然橡胶货于2021年2月11日以及2021年2月12日整个交易日休市。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>提醒：春节假期主要市场休市安排一览</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n提醒：春节假期主要市场休市安排一览\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-02 10:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>春节假期即将来临，敬请广大投资者留意，提前做好资金安排。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">老虎证券</a>祝您及家人新春快乐，牛年大吉！</p><p>春节期间各地股市休市安排如下：(均为当地时间）</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27cfee666051c46a31c824a795046629\" tg-width=\"1790\" tg-height=\"788\"></p><p><b>美股：</b></p><p>2月15日（星期一）因美国总统日全天休市。</p><p><b>港股：</b></p><p>2月11日（星期四）除夕上午开市，下午休市；</p><p>2月12日（星期五）至2月15日（星期一）全天休市；</p><p>2月16日（星期二）起照常开市。</p><p><b>A股：</b></p><p>2月11日（星期四）至2月17日（星期三）休市，2月18日（星期四）起照常开市。</p><p><b>沪、深股通：</b></p><p>2月11日（星期四）至2月17日（星期三）关闭；2月18日（星期四）起照常开通。</p><p><b>港股通：</b></p><p>2月9日（星期二）至2月17日（星期三）关闭服务，2月18日（星期四）起照常开通。</p><p><b>英股：</b></p><p>照常交易</p><p><b>澳股：</b></p><p>照常交易</p><p><b>新加坡市场：</b></p><p>2月11日（星期四）交易半日。</p><p>2月12日（星期五）全天休市。</p><p><b>期货市场：</b></p><p>HKEX下美元黄金、指数类货于2月11日12：30休市，个股期货于2月11日12：00休市；指数类期货、人民币、个股期货、美元黄金于2月12日以及2月15日整个交易日休市。</p><p>GME&nbsp;Group下外汇、债券、比特币、股指、能源、贵金属期货于2月15日12：00（北京时间16日凌晨02:00）提前休市；活畜、大小谷物、稻谷期货于2月15日全天休市。</p><p>CBOE&nbsp;下&nbsp;VIX&nbsp;波动率期货于2月15日10：00提前休市。</p><p>SGX下天然橡胶货于2021年2月11日以及2021年2月12日整个交易日休市。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8f89c8af2a895e609af6985ff4ae3ab","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140942389","content_text":"春节假期即将来临，敬请广大投资者留意，提前做好资金安排。老虎证券祝您及家人新春快乐，牛年大吉！春节期间各地股市休市安排如下：(均为当地时间）美股：2月15日（星期一）因美国总统日全天休市。港股：2月11日（星期四）除夕上午开市，下午休市；2月12日（星期五）至2月15日（星期一）全天休市；2月16日（星期二）起照常开市。A股：2月11日（星期四）至2月17日（星期三）休市，2月18日（星期四）起照常开市。沪、深股通：2月11日（星期四）至2月17日（星期三）关闭；2月18日（星期四）起照常开通。港股通：2月9日（星期二）至2月17日（星期三）关闭服务，2月18日（星期四）起照常开通。英股：照常交易澳股：照常交易新加坡市场：2月11日（星期四）交易半日。2月12日（星期五）全天休市。期货市场：HKEX下美元黄金、指数类货于2月11日12：30休市，个股期货于2月11日12：00休市；指数类期货、人民币、个股期货、美元黄金于2月12日以及2月15日整个交易日休市。GME Group下外汇、债券、比特币、股指、能源、贵金属期货于2月15日12：00（北京时间16日凌晨02:00）提前休市；活畜、大小谷物、稻谷期货于2月15日全天休市。CBOE 下 VIX 波动率期货于2月15日10：00提前休市。SGX下天然橡胶货于2021年2月11日以及2021年2月12日整个交易日休市。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":389821876,"gmtCreate":1612752563195,"gmtModify":1703764611871,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389821876","repostId":"1162762479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162762479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612751180,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1162762479?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 10:26","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"京东物流再传上市，刘强东这次真急了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162762479","media":"AI财经社","summary":"文／杨俏\n到目前为止，京东物流被传上市不止4次了。\n日前，有关京东物流上市的消息再次传出。有消息称，京东物流计划在本月提交赴港上市申请。对此，AI财经社求证京东物流，对方表示对于上市事宜，不予置评。其","content":"<p>文／杨俏</p>\n<p>到目前为止，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>物流被传上市不止4次了。</p>\n<p>日前，有关京东物流上市的消息再次传出。有消息称，京东物流计划在本月提交赴港上市申请。对此，AI财经社求证京东物流，对方表示对于上市事宜，不予置评。其一位高管也表示，“我也不知道”。</p>\n<p>一位快递业资深从业人士告诉AI财经社，他此前预测京东物流于去年第四季度完成上市。“当时京东物流的社会形象非常好，京东二次上市、京东健康登陆港交所等多项利好消息。如果京东物流上市，加上京东在港股的双向联动，可以加速推进京东物流的市场发展。”</p>\n<p>如今看来，虽未在2020年完成上市，眼下的人事变动、公司战略布局和方向调整，更像是为2021年京东物流冲刺资本市场所做的准备。京东物流上市成功后，将是京东旗下第4家上市的公司。</p>\n<p><b>换帅加速IPO进程</b></p>\n<p>在最近一次传出京东物流上市的消息之前，京东物流内部高管刚刚做过调整。在京东待了10年之久的前京东物流CEO王振辉，于2020年底辞去首席执行官一职，代替他的是京东集团前首席人力资源官余睿。</p>\n<p>同时，余睿也将从2021年1月27日起，任职达达集团的董事，王振辉辞任董事职位。</p>\n<p>据京东集团公告显示，余睿在零售和物流运营管理方面经验丰富，京东希望余睿能够带领京东物流持续提升客户体验，继续推动社会化物流成本的下降。</p>\n<p>接任京东物流CEO的余睿是80后，也曾是京东最为年轻的副总裁。2008年余睿以管<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSO\">培生</a>的身份加入京东。</p>\n<p>从一线开始做起的余睿，任职过客服，外部传言最多的是其一天接了96个电话，经常被顾客骂。此外还任职过拣货员、快递员。通过京东的轮岗机制，余睿在京东集团、京东零售、京东物流等众多管理岗位进行过历练。2014年，晋升为京东集团最年轻的副总裁。</p>\n<p>中途离开京东的余睿2016年被刘强东重新“召回”，出任1号店CEO，推动1号店业务、架构及组织的整合重组；2019年起，余睿担任京东集团首席人力资源官。</p>\n<p>比余睿晚2年加入京东的王振辉，是京东多年的老兵了。在2017年京东成立物流子集团之时，王振辉出任京东物流CEO，开始掌权。</p>\n<p>包括“青流计划”、“京准达”、“京尊达”、“无人仓”、京东个人快递业务等多种物流服务模式，都是由他提出。</p>\n<p>京东物流更是于2018年迎来了资本市场26亿美元的融资，其中，高瓴资本、红杉中国、招商集团、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>等多家顶级投资机构入局，投后估值约134亿美元。当时也有业内人士判断其有可能在2019年下半年独立上市。</p>\n<p>王振辉也对外表示，京东物流完成了梦想的第一阶段，“从2017年独立成为子集团到2019年底，经过2年多时间的开放，京东物流实现了从企业物流向物流企业的转型。”</p>\n<p>2020年上半年京东的物流及其他服务收入为154亿元，到2020年9月底，物流及其他服务收入为258亿元，京东物流运营的仓库超过800个。</p>\n<p>不过，即便功劳不小，从2018年至今，王振辉带领的京东物流一直未给出确切的上市时间点。</p>\n<p>快递专家赵小敏分析，余睿的独立做事风格和性格与刘强东都有些相似，他的回归必定会加速推进京东物流上市的进程。</p>\n<p><b>618前：最好的上市节点</b></p>\n<p>2007年，刘强东不顾众人反对，一意孤行走向了“烧钱”的道路，自建京东物流。此后211限时达的时效塑造了新的用户体验，提升了京东的品牌度。京东物流成为了京东平台用户的“刚需”，也是京东B2C模式中不可缺少的一环。</p>\n<p>自建物流是福也是祸，难免将企业拖入到亏损的泥潭当中。2015 年京东亏损高达94亿元。尽管2016年，京东物流实现了211.2亿元的收入，整体仍处于亏损状态。</p>\n<p>在2019年刘强东的一封内部信表示，京东物流自建立起已经连续亏损了12年，2018年一年亏损达到了23亿元，如果加上内部结算，2018年亏损额高达28亿元。</p>\n<p>“沉重”的京东物流不得不从京东体系中剥离出来。一方面，京东物流从服务京东商城已经拓展至第三方卖家，服务于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>严选、小米有品等社交电商平台，已经具备了融资的能力；另一方面，京东也需要通过剥离亏损的物流业务，提升自己在资本市场的影响力。</p>\n<p>事实上，近观京东物流近两年来的动作，都在有意扩张自己的商业版图，弥补短板。在业内人士看来，从京东物流近两年来的布局，涉足的每一个领域都弥补京东物流在物流领域的短板。</p>\n<p>下沉市场方面，2020年初，京东成立了加盟制快递众邮快递，后续经过调整，众邮快递更名为京喜快递；快运方面，京东物流以总对价30亿元收购跨速运企业跨越速运；此外，京东物流也通过投资控股的方式，逐步成为A股上市公司、仓储物流提供服务商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300013\">新宁物流</a>（300013.SZ）的第一大股东，管理团队也正式入驻。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94f724aef912e2767d0d1f93f5f206b4\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>也有业内人士认为，“目前，新宁物流对京东物流的估值会大打折扣，包括与跨越速运的合作，都没有实质性的进展。京东物流在冲击IPO，要想在二级市场有好故事，最好在IPO前完成京东航空梯队和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUBG\">枢纽</a>的建设。”</p>\n<p>在赵小敏看来，目前而言，京东物流最好的上市时间是5月前，必须在618之前完成挂牌，才能维持其在资本市场的表现，抵御市场风险。</p>\n<p>“如果618之后还未登陆资本市场，那就没有可讲的东西了。而且估值也会相应地缩水。”他认为。</p>\n<p>京东物流上市成功后，将是京东旗下第4家上市的公司，其余3是分别在美股上市的京东集团、美股上市的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DADA\">达达集团</a>以及在香港上市的京东健康。</p>\n<p><b>强敌环绕，急需突围</b></p>\n<p>京东物流急于上市，考虑的或许不止于此。</p>\n<p>物流行业凭借着互联网及电商的红利快速发展进步，目前，除京东物流外，国内其他主流的物流企业早已上市。</p>\n<p>当京东物流还在“拖累”京东集团之际，圆通、申通、韵达等都已借壳上市成功，中通成为了首家在美股上市的中国快递企业，顺丰也通过借壳方式登陆A股。</p>\n<p>物流企业纷纷上市的大潮中，“掉队”的百世物流也于2017年在纳斯达克挂牌上市。至此，“三通一达”、顺丰、百世均完成了上市动作。</p>\n<p>尽管京东物流在外界口碑极佳，但与顺丰、中通等老牌物流企业相比，京东物流无论是收入、业务量等，都有不小的差距。</p>\n<p>仅从营收而言，2017年京东物流对外透露年收入接近300亿元之时，顺丰半年营收就达到了该规模；2020年前三季度京东的物流及其他服务收入258亿元，顺丰已经实现破千亿营收。</p>\n<p>而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZTO\">中通快递</a>2020年实现了170亿票的业务总量，市场份额扩大至20.8%，领跑其他快递企业，占据市场规模第一。</p>\n<p>截至目前，顺丰最新市值为4850亿人民币；中通最新市值为302亿美元。据相关媒体报道，京东物流已挑选<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>牵头经办香港IPO事宜，估值可能达约400亿美元。</p>\n<p>赵小敏认为，京东物流拥有京东强大的商流基础、仓配一体化的特性、技术自动化和直营的基因等，都是维持目前它相对高估值的因素；此外，对京东的依赖性很强、商业模式的成长性、市场方面的突破，也是资本追捧的原因。</p>\n<p>不过，他也认为目前400亿的估值偏高：“综合评判，京东物流的估值应该在300亿美元左右。</p>\n<p>另外，2019年，阿里投资53亿元增持菜鸟网络的股份后，菜鸟估值达到了1325亿元。已经集齐了“通达系”快递企业的阿里系电商物流订单占国内7成以上份额，占据通达系快递企业8至9成以上的订单，这无论是对于京东物流而言还是其他在物流领域单兵作战的企业而言，都是不小的威胁。</p>\n<p>相比于目前市场上其他竞争对手而言，京东物流需要的是持续性增长和规模化效应。2019年京东集团Q2财报中指出，对于京东物流，相较于现阶段的盈亏，未来持续性的规模盈利能力更是关键。在IPO之前，更大市场份额占比以及规模化效应势必将成为京东物流未来发展的关键落脚点。</p>\n<p>在物流领域的资本游戏运作中，每一位选手都怕掉队。快递企业纷纷谋求上市，背后不止是中国快递行业的变革与升级，更是残酷的市场竞争之下倒逼的结果。</p>","source":"AI财经社","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>京东物流再传上市，刘强东这次真急了？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n京东物流再传上市，刘强东这次真急了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-08 10:26 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.aicaijing.com.cn/overview?article_id=5354><strong>AI财经社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文／杨俏\n到目前为止，京东物流被传上市不止4次了。\n日前，有关京东物流上市的消息再次传出。有消息称，京东物流计划在本月提交赴港上市申请。对此，AI财经社求证京东物流，对方表示对于上市事宜，不予置评。其一位高管也表示，“我也不知道”。\n一位快递业资深从业人士告诉AI财经社，他此前预测京东物流于去年第四季度完成上市。“当时京东物流的社会形象非常好，京东二次上市、京东健康登陆港交所等多项利好消息。如果...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.aicaijing.com.cn/overview?article_id=5354\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a50f1e7f83dfbc3c1956c3d2b4f4b4b","relate_stocks":{"09618":"京东集团-SW","JD":"京东"},"source_url":"https://www.aicaijing.com.cn/overview?article_id=5354","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162762479","content_text":"文／杨俏\n到目前为止，京东物流被传上市不止4次了。\n日前，有关京东物流上市的消息再次传出。有消息称，京东物流计划在本月提交赴港上市申请。对此，AI财经社求证京东物流，对方表示对于上市事宜，不予置评。其一位高管也表示，“我也不知道”。\n一位快递业资深从业人士告诉AI财经社，他此前预测京东物流于去年第四季度完成上市。“当时京东物流的社会形象非常好，京东二次上市、京东健康登陆港交所等多项利好消息。如果京东物流上市，加上京东在港股的双向联动，可以加速推进京东物流的市场发展。”\n如今看来，虽未在2020年完成上市，眼下的人事变动、公司战略布局和方向调整，更像是为2021年京东物流冲刺资本市场所做的准备。京东物流上市成功后，将是京东旗下第4家上市的公司。\n换帅加速IPO进程\n在最近一次传出京东物流上市的消息之前，京东物流内部高管刚刚做过调整。在京东待了10年之久的前京东物流CEO王振辉，于2020年底辞去首席执行官一职，代替他的是京东集团前首席人力资源官余睿。\n同时，余睿也将从2021年1月27日起，任职达达集团的董事，王振辉辞任董事职位。\n据京东集团公告显示，余睿在零售和物流运营管理方面经验丰富，京东希望余睿能够带领京东物流持续提升客户体验，继续推动社会化物流成本的下降。\n接任京东物流CEO的余睿是80后，也曾是京东最为年轻的副总裁。2008年余睿以管培生的身份加入京东。\n从一线开始做起的余睿，任职过客服，外部传言最多的是其一天接了96个电话，经常被顾客骂。此外还任职过拣货员、快递员。通过京东的轮岗机制，余睿在京东集团、京东零售、京东物流等众多管理岗位进行过历练。2014年，晋升为京东集团最年轻的副总裁。\n中途离开京东的余睿2016年被刘强东重新“召回”，出任1号店CEO，推动1号店业务、架构及组织的整合重组；2019年起，余睿担任京东集团首席人力资源官。\n比余睿晚2年加入京东的王振辉，是京东多年的老兵了。在2017年京东成立物流子集团之时，王振辉出任京东物流CEO，开始掌权。\n包括“青流计划”、“京准达”、“京尊达”、“无人仓”、京东个人快递业务等多种物流服务模式，都是由他提出。\n京东物流更是于2018年迎来了资本市场26亿美元的融资，其中，高瓴资本、红杉中国、招商集团、腾讯等多家顶级投资机构入局，投后估值约134亿美元。当时也有业内人士判断其有可能在2019年下半年独立上市。\n王振辉也对外表示，京东物流完成了梦想的第一阶段，“从2017年独立成为子集团到2019年底，经过2年多时间的开放，京东物流实现了从企业物流向物流企业的转型。”\n2020年上半年京东的物流及其他服务收入为154亿元，到2020年9月底，物流及其他服务收入为258亿元，京东物流运营的仓库超过800个。\n不过，即便功劳不小，从2018年至今，王振辉带领的京东物流一直未给出确切的上市时间点。\n快递专家赵小敏分析，余睿的独立做事风格和性格与刘强东都有些相似，他的回归必定会加速推进京东物流上市的进程。\n618前：最好的上市节点\n2007年，刘强东不顾众人反对，一意孤行走向了“烧钱”的道路，自建京东物流。此后211限时达的时效塑造了新的用户体验，提升了京东的品牌度。京东物流成为了京东平台用户的“刚需”，也是京东B2C模式中不可缺少的一环。\n自建物流是福也是祸，难免将企业拖入到亏损的泥潭当中。2015 年京东亏损高达94亿元。尽管2016年，京东物流实现了211.2亿元的收入，整体仍处于亏损状态。\n在2019年刘强东的一封内部信表示，京东物流自建立起已经连续亏损了12年，2018年一年亏损达到了23亿元，如果加上内部结算，2018年亏损额高达28亿元。\n“沉重”的京东物流不得不从京东体系中剥离出来。一方面，京东物流从服务京东商城已经拓展至第三方卖家，服务于网易严选、小米有品等社交电商平台，已经具备了融资的能力；另一方面，京东也需要通过剥离亏损的物流业务，提升自己在资本市场的影响力。\n事实上，近观京东物流近两年来的动作，都在有意扩张自己的商业版图，弥补短板。在业内人士看来，从京东物流近两年来的布局，涉足的每一个领域都弥补京东物流在物流领域的短板。\n下沉市场方面，2020年初，京东成立了加盟制快递众邮快递，后续经过调整，众邮快递更名为京喜快递；快运方面，京东物流以总对价30亿元收购跨速运企业跨越速运；此外，京东物流也通过投资控股的方式，逐步成为A股上市公司、仓储物流提供服务商新宁物流（300013.SZ）的第一大股东，管理团队也正式入驻。\n\n也有业内人士认为，“目前，新宁物流对京东物流的估值会大打折扣，包括与跨越速运的合作，都没有实质性的进展。京东物流在冲击IPO，要想在二级市场有好故事，最好在IPO前完成京东航空梯队和枢纽的建设。”\n在赵小敏看来，目前而言，京东物流最好的上市时间是5月前，必须在618之前完成挂牌，才能维持其在资本市场的表现，抵御市场风险。\n“如果618之后还未登陆资本市场，那就没有可讲的东西了。而且估值也会相应地缩水。”他认为。\n京东物流上市成功后，将是京东旗下第4家上市的公司，其余3是分别在美股上市的京东集团、美股上市的达达集团以及在香港上市的京东健康。\n强敌环绕，急需突围\n京东物流急于上市，考虑的或许不止于此。\n物流行业凭借着互联网及电商的红利快速发展进步，目前，除京东物流外，国内其他主流的物流企业早已上市。\n当京东物流还在“拖累”京东集团之际，圆通、申通、韵达等都已借壳上市成功，中通成为了首家在美股上市的中国快递企业，顺丰也通过借壳方式登陆A股。\n物流企业纷纷上市的大潮中，“掉队”的百世物流也于2017年在纳斯达克挂牌上市。至此，“三通一达”、顺丰、百世均完成了上市动作。\n尽管京东物流在外界口碑极佳，但与顺丰、中通等老牌物流企业相比，京东物流无论是收入、业务量等，都有不小的差距。\n仅从营收而言，2017年京东物流对外透露年收入接近300亿元之时，顺丰半年营收就达到了该规模；2020年前三季度京东的物流及其他服务收入258亿元，顺丰已经实现破千亿营收。\n而中通快递2020年实现了170亿票的业务总量，市场份额扩大至20.8%，领跑其他快递企业，占据市场规模第一。\n截至目前，顺丰最新市值为4850亿人民币；中通最新市值为302亿美元。据相关媒体报道，京东物流已挑选美国银行和高盛牵头经办香港IPO事宜，估值可能达约400亿美元。\n赵小敏认为，京东物流拥有京东强大的商流基础、仓配一体化的特性、技术自动化和直营的基因等，都是维持目前它相对高估值的因素；此外，对京东的依赖性很强、商业模式的成长性、市场方面的突破，也是资本追捧的原因。\n不过，他也认为目前400亿的估值偏高：“综合评判，京东物流的估值应该在300亿美元左右。\n另外，2019年，阿里投资53亿元增持菜鸟网络的股份后，菜鸟估值达到了1325亿元。已经集齐了“通达系”快递企业的阿里系电商物流订单占国内7成以上份额，占据通达系快递企业8至9成以上的订单，这无论是对于京东物流而言还是其他在物流领域单兵作战的企业而言，都是不小的威胁。\n相比于目前市场上其他竞争对手而言，京东物流需要的是持续性增长和规模化效应。2019年京东集团Q2财报中指出，对于京东物流，相较于现阶段的盈亏，未来持续性的规模盈利能力更是关键。在IPO之前，更大市场份额占比以及规模化效应势必将成为京东物流未来发展的关键落脚点。\n在物流领域的资本游戏运作中，每一位选手都怕掉队。快递企业纷纷谋求上市，背后不止是中国快递行业的变革与升级，更是残酷的市场竞争之下倒逼的结果。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JD":0.9,"09618":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":891882728,"gmtCreate":1628379279464,"gmtModify":1633751430962,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891882728","repostId":"1186953205","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":382552444,"gmtCreate":1613469450488,"gmtModify":1634553557357,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>买少了[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>买少了[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$买少了[微笑]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7161f83abf893a3cefd6921b689d9899","width":"1242","height":"1767"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382552444","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823424668,"gmtCreate":1633656260433,"gmtModify":1633656260647,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823424668","repostId":"1176501017","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":880222204,"gmtCreate":1631061010108,"gmtModify":1632884912451,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880222204","repostId":"2165357785","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2165357785","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631056951,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2165357785?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 07:22","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"福特挖角苹果汽车项目主管Doug Field","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165357785","media":"新浪美股","summary":"福特汽车周二宣布，已聘请前特斯拉和苹果高管Doug Field担任其首席先进技术和嵌入式系统官。　　Field曾领导特斯拉Model 3的开发，此前担任苹果公司特殊项目的副总裁，据称这其中包括领导该公司的秘密造车项目Project Titan。　　据报道，Field曾在苹果公司担任Mac硬件工程副总裁，在被特斯拉挖走五年之后重返苹果公司，加入该公司秘密造车计划Project Titan。　　苹果公司随后证实Field已经离任，并对其在该公司作出的贡献表示感谢。","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7129b39a30aed386731a5f261016b90c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>周二宣布，已聘请前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>高管Doug Field担任其首席先进技术和嵌入式系统官。</p>\n<p>Field曾领导特斯拉Model 3的开发，此前担任苹果公司特殊项目的副总裁，据称这其中包括领导该公司的秘密造车项目Project Titan。</p>\n<p>福特表示，Field将与福特首席产品平台和运营官Hau Thai-Tang密切合作，在Ford+增长计划的基础上创造下一代福特互联产品和体验。</p>\n<p>Field的职责将包括领导福特开发下一代“Blue Oval Intelligence”技术堆栈，以交付<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>联网汽车。Field将监督公司的嵌入式软件和硬件组织，包括车辆控制、企业连接、功能、集成和验证、架构和平台、驾驶员辅助技术和数字工程工具项目。</p>\n<p>据报道，Field曾在苹果公司担任Mac硬件工程副总裁，在被特斯拉挖走五年之后重返苹果公司，加入该公司秘密造车计划Project Titan。</p>\n<p>苹果公司随后证实Field已经离任，并对其在该公司作出的贡献表示感谢。</p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>福特挖角苹果汽车项目主管Doug Field</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n福特挖角苹果汽车项目主管Doug Field\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-08 07:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-08/doc-iktzqtyt4670350.shtml><strong>新浪美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>福特汽车周二宣布，已聘请前特斯拉和苹果高管Doug Field担任其首席先进技术和嵌入式系统官。\nField曾领导特斯拉Model 3的开发，此前担任苹果公司特殊项目的副总裁，据称这其中包括领导该公司的秘密造车项目Project Titan。\n福特表示，Field将与福特首席产品平台和运营官Hau Thai-Tang密切合作，在Ford+增长计划的基础上创造下一代福特互联产品和体验。\nField的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-08/doc-iktzqtyt4670350.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7129b39a30aed386731a5f261016b90c","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-08/doc-iktzqtyt4670350.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2165357785","content_text":"福特汽车周二宣布，已聘请前特斯拉和苹果高管Doug Field担任其首席先进技术和嵌入式系统官。\nField曾领导特斯拉Model 3的开发，此前担任苹果公司特殊项目的副总裁，据称这其中包括领导该公司的秘密造车项目Project Titan。\n福特表示，Field将与福特首席产品平台和运营官Hau Thai-Tang密切合作，在Ford+增长计划的基础上创造下一代福特互联产品和体验。\nField的职责将包括领导福特开发下一代“Blue Oval Intelligence”技术堆栈，以交付智能联网汽车。Field将监督公司的嵌入式软件和硬件组织，包括车辆控制、企业连接、功能、集成和验证、架构和平台、驾驶员辅助技术和数字工程工具项目。\n据报道，Field曾在苹果公司担任Mac硬件工程副总裁，在被特斯拉挖走五年之后重返苹果公司，加入该公司秘密造车计划Project Titan。\n苹果公司随后证实Field已经离任，并对其在该公司作出的贡献表示感谢。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":880222789,"gmtCreate":1631061027141,"gmtModify":1632884912129,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880222789","repostId":"2165357785","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2165357785","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631056951,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2165357785?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 07:22","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"福特挖角苹果汽车项目主管Doug Field","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165357785","media":"新浪美股","summary":"福特汽车周二宣布，已聘请前特斯拉和苹果高管Doug Field担任其首席先进技术和嵌入式系统官。　　Field曾领导特斯拉Model 3的开发，此前担任苹果公司特殊项目的副总裁，据称这其中包括领导该公司的秘密造车项目Project Titan。　　据报道，Field曾在苹果公司担任Mac硬件工程副总裁，在被特斯拉挖走五年之后重返苹果公司，加入该公司秘密造车计划Project Titan。　　苹果公司随后证实Field已经离任，并对其在该公司作出的贡献表示感谢。","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7129b39a30aed386731a5f261016b90c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>周二宣布，已聘请前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>高管Doug Field担任其首席先进技术和嵌入式系统官。</p>\n<p>Field曾领导特斯拉Model 3的开发，此前担任苹果公司特殊项目的副总裁，据称这其中包括领导该公司的秘密造车项目Project Titan。</p>\n<p>福特表示，Field将与福特首席产品平台和运营官Hau Thai-Tang密切合作，在Ford+增长计划的基础上创造下一代福特互联产品和体验。</p>\n<p>Field的职责将包括领导福特开发下一代“Blue Oval Intelligence”技术堆栈，以交付<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>联网汽车。Field将监督公司的嵌入式软件和硬件组织，包括车辆控制、企业连接、功能、集成和验证、架构和平台、驾驶员辅助技术和数字工程工具项目。</p>\n<p>据报道，Field曾在苹果公司担任Mac硬件工程副总裁，在被特斯拉挖走五年之后重返苹果公司，加入该公司秘密造车计划Project Titan。</p>\n<p>苹果公司随后证实Field已经离任，并对其在该公司作出的贡献表示感谢。</p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>福特挖角苹果汽车项目主管Doug Field</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n福特挖角苹果汽车项目主管Doug Field\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-08 07:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-08/doc-iktzqtyt4670350.shtml><strong>新浪美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>福特汽车周二宣布，已聘请前特斯拉和苹果高管Doug Field担任其首席先进技术和嵌入式系统官。\nField曾领导特斯拉Model 3的开发，此前担任苹果公司特殊项目的副总裁，据称这其中包括领导该公司的秘密造车项目Project Titan。\n福特表示，Field将与福特首席产品平台和运营官Hau Thai-Tang密切合作，在Ford+增长计划的基础上创造下一代福特互联产品和体验。\nField的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-08/doc-iktzqtyt4670350.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7129b39a30aed386731a5f261016b90c","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-08/doc-iktzqtyt4670350.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2165357785","content_text":"福特汽车周二宣布，已聘请前特斯拉和苹果高管Doug Field担任其首席先进技术和嵌入式系统官。\nField曾领导特斯拉Model 3的开发，此前担任苹果公司特殊项目的副总裁，据称这其中包括领导该公司的秘密造车项目Project Titan。\n福特表示，Field将与福特首席产品平台和运营官Hau Thai-Tang密切合作，在Ford+增长计划的基础上创造下一代福特互联产品和体验。\nField的职责将包括领导福特开发下一代“Blue Oval Intelligence”技术堆栈，以交付智能联网汽车。Field将监督公司的嵌入式软件和硬件组织，包括车辆控制、企业连接、功能、集成和验证、架构和平台、驾驶员辅助技术和数字工程工具项目。\n据报道，Field曾在苹果公司担任Mac硬件工程副总裁，在被特斯拉挖走五年之后重返苹果公司，加入该公司秘密造车计划Project Titan。\n苹果公司随后证实Field已经离任，并对其在该公司作出的贡献表示感谢。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":834985054,"gmtCreate":1629767086178,"gmtModify":1633682610245,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834985054","repostId":"2161770751","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3864,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":112327024,"gmtCreate":1622852503468,"gmtModify":1634097433173,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112327024","repostId":"1154529120","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154529120","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622810459,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1154529120?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 20:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154529120","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:. Alibaba Group'","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险并存，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以当前相当低的估值购买的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 efetova/iStock 提供，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了高增长的中国消费市场的机会。同时，通过一系列的创业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在额外的行业，比如云计算。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。看到股价上涨至 500 美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这在短期内不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自首次公开募股以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但还应该提到的是，2020 年下半年股价确实下跌，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服的 IPO 计划被叫停，2020 年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价现在基本与一年前持平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在那段时间内继续取得强劲的业绩。例如，上一季度阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，约为50%。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴财报发布中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于年化用户增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW还设法将其 EBITDA 同比增长 25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管对评级管理关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但仍实现了这一目标。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，营业收入增长速度更快，经阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款调整后，营业收入同比增长 48%。我认为，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的，以便更清楚地了解阿里巴巴平均一个季度的潜在“核心”盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技公司而言，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是由于投资者情绪疲软导致中国风险敞口和对监管的担忧导致的多重压缩的结果。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前 220 美元的价格计算，与目前分析师一致的目标价 298 美元相比，阿里巴巴的股价有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨 35%。分析师目标价通常以 1 年为期限发布，因此，如果分析师社区是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项很好的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个价格目标似乎一点也不离谱，因为 298 美元相当于今年预期净利润的约 29 倍，或明年净利润的 23 倍。当我们谈论 2022 年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你看的是12个月的窗口，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从长远来看，那么 500 美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能达到的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为 20 美元，并且市盈率为 25，那么股票的交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 25 美元，市盈率为 20 倍，那么股票交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 17 美元，交易价格为净利润的 29 倍，那么股价将（略低于）500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有许多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收入就越低。这反过来意味着价格目标可以更快实现，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们查看阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为 30-40 倍，相对于目前的股票估值（约为今年收益的 20 倍），其交易价格显然大幅溢价。我认为目前的估值太低了，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到 30 倍、35 倍甚至 40 倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股票估值可能会更低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，股票确实有一些估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设股票未来的交易价格是净利润的23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大盘股的估值相比，也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊 (AMZN) 的交易价格是今年市盈率的 59 倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用 23 倍市盈率使阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为 21.70 美元。什么时候会是这样？在下图中，我们看到了今年、明年（2022 财年）和 2023 财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW到 2023 年将无法实现每股 22 美元的盈利，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到 2023 年每股收益会增长 100% 以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约 27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约 1.5 年的时间才能将每股收益从 15.20 美元（2023 年估计）增长到我们的目标 21.70 美元。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024 年和 2025 年的增长率仅为 20%，到 2025 年底，每股收益也可能达到 21.70 美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到 2025 年底（即 4.5 年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能达到 500 美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要高市盈率——我相信，在净利润的 23 倍下，阿里巴巴-SW不会很贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守，假设 2023 年每股收益预测过高 10%，并且 2023 年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长 17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年 27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW 2026 年的每股收益将达到 21.70 美元，未来 5.5 年内股价将升至 500 美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来 5.5 年内股价从当前水平上涨 130%，年化回报率为 16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结这一部分，我会说<i>是的，爸爸可以达到 500 美元</i>——但实际上这需要几年时间。到 2020 年代中期，这对我来说似乎是一个非常容易实现的目标，尽管当然，没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司从多个长期宏观趋势中实现了强劲的增长和利润，例如中国不断增长的消费者支出、不断增长的电子商务市场份额和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能是一个非常有益的游戏的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个有力选择。我属于后一类，因此以当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将有显着上涨空间。然而，根据你的风险承受能力以及你如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，你可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 20:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险并存，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以当前相当低的估值购买的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 efetova/iStock 提供，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了高增长的中国消费市场的机会。同时，通过一系列的创业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在额外的行业，比如云计算。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。看到股价上涨至 500 美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这在短期内不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自首次公开募股以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但还应该提到的是，2020 年下半年股价确实下跌，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服的 IPO 计划被叫停，2020 年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价现在基本与一年前持平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在那段时间内继续取得强劲的业绩。例如，上一季度阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，约为50%。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴财报发布中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于年化用户增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW还设法将其 EBITDA 同比增长 25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管对评级管理关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但仍实现了这一目标。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，营业收入增长速度更快，经阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款调整后，营业收入同比增长 48%。我认为，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的，以便更清楚地了解阿里巴巴平均一个季度的潜在“核心”盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技公司而言，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是由于投资者情绪疲软导致中国风险敞口和对监管的担忧导致的多重压缩的结果。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前 220 美元的价格计算，与目前分析师一致的目标价 298 美元相比，阿里巴巴的股价有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨 35%。分析师目标价通常以 1 年为期限发布，因此，如果分析师社区是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项很好的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个价格目标似乎一点也不离谱，因为 298 美元相当于今年预期净利润的约 29 倍，或明年净利润的 23 倍。当我们谈论 2022 年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你看的是12个月的窗口，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从长远来看，那么 500 美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能达到的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为 20 美元，并且市盈率为 25，那么股票的交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 25 美元，市盈率为 20 倍，那么股票交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 17 美元，交易价格为净利润的 29 倍，那么股价将（略低于）500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有许多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收入就越低。这反过来意味着价格目标可以更快实现，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们查看阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为 30-40 倍，相对于目前的股票估值（约为今年收益的 20 倍），其交易价格显然大幅溢价。我认为目前的估值太低了，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到 30 倍、35 倍甚至 40 倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股票估值可能会更低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，股票确实有一些估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设股票未来的交易价格是净利润的23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大盘股的估值相比，也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊 (AMZN) 的交易价格是今年市盈率的 59 倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用 23 倍市盈率使阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为 21.70 美元。什么时候会是这样？在下图中，我们看到了今年、明年（2022 财年）和 2023 财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW到 2023 年将无法实现每股 22 美元的盈利，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到 2023 年每股收益会增长 100% 以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约 27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约 1.5 年的时间才能将每股收益从 15.20 美元（2023 年估计）增长到我们的目标 21.70 美元。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024 年和 2025 年的增长率仅为 20%，到 2025 年底，每股收益也可能达到 21.70 美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到 2025 年底（即 4.5 年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能达到 500 美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要高市盈率——我相信，在净利润的 23 倍下，阿里巴巴-SW不会很贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守，假设 2023 年每股收益预测过高 10%，并且 2023 年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长 17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年 27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW 2026 年的每股收益将达到 21.70 美元，未来 5.5 年内股价将升至 500 美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来 5.5 年内股价从当前水平上涨 130%，年化回报率为 16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结这一部分，我会说<i>是的，爸爸可以达到 500 美元</i>——但实际上这需要几年时间。到 2020 年代中期，这对我来说似乎是一个非常容易实现的目标，尽管当然，没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司从多个长期宏观趋势中实现了强劲的增长和利润，例如中国不断增长的消费者支出、不断增长的电子商务市场份额和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能是一个非常有益的游戏的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个有力选择。我属于后一类，因此以当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将有显着上涨空间。然而，根据你的风险承受能力以及你如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，你可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154529120","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.\nI believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.\nIn the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.\n\nPhoto by efetova/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nAlibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.\nBABA Stock Price\nSince its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:\nData byYCharts\nShares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.\nAlibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and fears about regulation.\nAt its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500?\nThe answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.\nWe see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:\nData byYCharts\nAt 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.\nI still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.\nIf we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:\nData byYCharts\nIf analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.\nData byYCharts\nAnalysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.\nWe can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.\nSo, to sum this section up, I'd sayyes, BABA can hit $500-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.\nIs Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?\nAlibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.\nFor those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":131998778,"gmtCreate":1621819982294,"gmtModify":1634186378361,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131998778","repostId":"1105006567","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355572909,"gmtCreate":1617091721901,"gmtModify":1634522707207,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"等待适合买的，","listText":"等待适合买的，","text":"等待适合买的，","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/888ac5447fdee0bea5636668cd88ded4","width":"1125","height":"3035"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355572909","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355068135,"gmtCreate":1617015631327,"gmtModify":1634523136503,"author":{"id":"3559090183564391","authorId":"3559090183564391","name":"投资初心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c54c867b047674e362a459352fd9f02","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559090183564391","authorIdStr":"3559090183564391"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"反弹行情吧，也有量。","listText":"反弹行情吧，也有量。","text":"反弹行情吧，也有量。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aac232919d97a3d8013cc2d10063663","width":"1125","height":"3049"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355068135","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}