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FrankAllin
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老虎认证: FRM持证人
IP属地:广东
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FrankAllin
06-13
感谢老虎。借此机会分享个人的一点交易心得,欢迎交流[真香]
@小虎访谈:【实盘面对面】FrankAllin:概率思维看期权交易实战方法
FrankAllin
12-18 23:13
我平仓了
$TSLL 20241227 35.7 PUT$
,做空挣点真难
FrankAllin
12-17 23:20
我开仓了
$TSLL 20241227 35.7 PUT$
,来看看我最新分享的订单!
FrankAllin
12-17 22:55
我开仓了
$IONQ 20250110 55.0 CALL$
,高风险,控制仓位
FrankAllin
12-17 22:43
我平仓了
$MRVL 20250117 100.0 PUT$
,来看看我最新分享的订单!
FrankAllin
12-16 23:30
我平仓了
$MSTR 20250117 700.0 CALL$
,重新走入上升通道,先平掉,找机会再空。
FrankAllin
12-16 22:52
我开仓了
$PLTR 20241227 72.0 PUT$
,来看看我最新分享的订单!
FrankAllin
12-14
我开仓了
$NVDA 20241227 125.0 PUT$
,来看看我最新分享的订单!
FrankAllin
12-13
我平仓了
$AVGO 20241213 225.0 CALL$
,来看看我最新分享的订单!
FrankAllin
12-13
我开仓了
$MRVL 20250117 100.0 PUT$
,你跟着凑啥热闹
FrankAllin
12-13
我开仓了
$SOXL 20250117 38.0 CALL$
,来看看我最新分享的订单!
FrankAllin
12-13
我开仓了
$AVGO 20241213 225.0 CALL$
,过热了
FrankAllin
12-12
我开仓了
$MSTR 20250117 700.0 CALL$
,来看看我最新分享的订单!
FrankAllin
12-12
I opened
$ADBE 20241213 470.0 PUT$
,(null)
FrankAllin
12-11
我开仓了
$MARA 20250117 40.0 CALL$
,来看看我最新分享的订单!
FrankAllin
12-10
我平仓了
$MSTR 20241220 600.0 CALL$
,来看看我最新分享的订单!
FrankAllin
12-10
I opened
$MDB 20241213 300.0 PUT$
,Buy the dip
FrankAllin
12-10
我平仓了
$AI 20241220 55.0 CALL$
,来看看我最新分享的订单!
FrankAllin
12-10
我平仓了
$PLTR 20241220 75.0 PUT$
,快速止盈
FrankAllin
12-09
我开仓了
$AI 20241220 55.0 CALL$
,来看看我最新分享的订单!
FrankAllin
12-09
我开仓了
$PLTR 20241220 75.0 PUT$
,来看看我最新分享的订单!
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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随机漫步的Frank","starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":316392314867880,"gmtCreate":1718271964149,"gmtModify":1718271966117,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"感谢老虎。借此机会分享个人的一点交易心得,欢迎交流[真香] ","listText":"感谢老虎。借此机会分享个人的一点交易心得,欢迎交流[真香] ","text":"感谢老虎。借此机会分享个人的一点交易心得,欢迎交流[真香]","images":[],"top":2,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316392314867880","repostId":"316469114626280","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":316469114626280,"gmtCreate":1718270752741,"gmtModify":1719307421351,"author":{"id":"37002306153600","authorId":"37002306153600","name":"小虎访谈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0f6fba0673df1de1c5c31bb2b4f6d4e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"37002306153600","idStr":"37002306153600"},"themes":[],"title":"【实盘面对面】FrankAllin:概率思维看期权交易实战方法","htmlText":"本次小虎访谈邀请到了新锐虎友 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3546925022414459\">@FrankAllin</a> 讲述他在繁忙的金融行业工作之外,如何玩好概率游戏,积累长期复利。另外,他最近也开通了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/starInvestor?uuid=3546925022414459\" target=\"_blank\">交易分享功能</a>,实盘分析自己的港美股交易,欢迎虎友们踊跃关注。记得看到最后,有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/starInvestor?uuid=3546925022414459\" target=\"_blank\">【实盘面对面】</a>栏目送给各位虎友的优惠券。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/starInvestor?uuid=3546925022414459\" target=\"_blank\">点击订阅FrankAllin的实盘分享</a>Q:您的个人基本情况是什么样子的?从事投资大概有多久?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/starInvestor?uuid=3546925022414459\" target=\"_blank\">FrankAllin</a>:我是一个90后,当前从事金融行业。在大学时就开始炒股,几年沉沉浮浮下来,也不可避免地在A股折戟沉沙。从2019年开始接触美股,开始投入不多,但收益还可以,就慢慢切换过来了。现在我的投资主要以美股、期权为主,已持续一年多了。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/starInvestor?uuid=3546925022414459\" target=\"_blank\">点击订阅FrankAllin的实盘分享</a>Q:你当","listText":"本次小虎访谈邀请到了新锐虎友 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3546925022414459\">@FrankAllin</a> 讲述他在繁忙的金融行业工作之外,如何玩好概率游戏,积累长期复利。另外,他最近也开通了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/starInvestor?uuid=3546925022414459\" target=\"_blank\">交易分享功能</a>,实盘分析自己的港美股交易,欢迎虎友们踊跃关注。记得看到最后,有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/starInvestor?uuid=3546925022414459\" target=\"_blank\">【实盘面对面】</a>栏目送给各位虎友的优惠券。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/starInvestor?uuid=3546925022414459\" target=\"_blank\">点击订阅FrankAllin的实盘分享</a>Q:您的个人基本情况是什么样子的?从事投资大概有多久?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/starInvestor?uuid=3546925022414459\" target=\"_blank\">FrankAllin</a>:我是一个90后,当前从事金融行业。在大学时就开始炒股,几年沉沉浮浮下来,也不可避免地在A股折戟沉沙。从2019年开始接触美股,开始投入不多,但收益还可以,就慢慢切换过来了。现在我的投资主要以美股、期权为主,已持续一年多了。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/starInvestor?uuid=3546925022414459\" target=\"_blank\">点击订阅FrankAllin的实盘分享</a>Q:你当","text":"本次小虎访谈邀请到了新锐虎友 @FrankAllin 讲述他在繁忙的金融行业工作之外,如何玩好概率游戏,积累长期复利。另外,他最近也开通了交易分享功能,实盘分析自己的港美股交易,欢迎虎友们踊跃关注。记得看到最后,有【实盘面对面】栏目送给各位虎友的优惠券。点击订阅FrankAllin的实盘分享Q:您的个人基本情况是什么样子的?从事投资大概有多久?FrankAllin:我是一个90后,当前从事金融行业。在大学时就开始炒股,几年沉沉浮浮下来,也不可避免地在A股折戟沉沙。从2019年开始接触美股,开始投入不多,但收益还可以,就慢慢切换过来了。现在我的投资主要以美股、期权为主,已持续一年多了。点击订阅FrankAllin的实盘分享Q:你当","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b29cf03d60972831c182079aedf4422a","width":"1920","height":"1080"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316469114626280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":382945751417112,"gmtCreate":1734534837540,"gmtModify":1734535600328,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLL 20241227 35.7 PUT\">$TSLL 20241227 35.7 PUT$ </a>,做空挣点真难","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLL 20241227 35.7 PUT\">$TSLL 20241227 35.7 PUT$ </a>,做空挣点真难","text":"我平仓了$TSLL 20241227 35.7 PUT$ ,做空挣点真难","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382945751417112","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":382621556937072,"gmtCreate":1734448820913,"gmtModify":1734533948691,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLL 20241227 35.7 PUT\">$TSLL 20241227 35.7 PUT$ 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/IONQ 20250110 55.0 CALL\">$IONQ 20250110 55.0 CALL$ </a>,高风险,控制仓位","text":"我开仓了$IONQ 20250110 55.0 CALL$ ,高风险,控制仓位","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382615601742088","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":382612443996528,"gmtCreate":1734446596074,"gmtModify":1734504653419,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MRVL 20250117 100.0 PUT\">$MRVL 20250117 100.0 PUT$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MRVL 20250117 100.0 PUT\">$MRVL 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20241227 72.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382278950240456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":381196192420216,"gmtCreate":1734109573776,"gmtModify":1734448115251,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20241227 125.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20241227 125.0 PUT$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20241227 125.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20241227 125.0 PUT$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","text":"我开仓了$NVDA 20241227 125.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381196192420216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":381177206845824,"gmtCreate":1734104938859,"gmtModify":1734104964971,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AVGO 20241213 225.0 CALL\">$AVGO 20241213 225.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AVGO 20241213 225.0 CALL\">$AVGO 20241213 225.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","text":"我平仓了$AVGO 20241213 225.0 CALL$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381177206845824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":381226786762856,"gmtCreate":1734104004184,"gmtModify":1734446664972,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MRVL 20250117 100.0 PUT\">$MRVL 20250117 100.0 PUT$ </a>,你跟着凑啥热闹","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MRVL 20250117 100.0 PUT\">$MRVL 20250117 100.0 PUT$ </a>,你跟着凑啥热闹","text":"我开仓了$MRVL 20250117 100.0 PUT$ ,你跟着凑啥热闹","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381226786762856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":381172491555248,"gmtCreate":1734103819888,"gmtModify":1734534234053,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SOXL 20250117 38.0 CALL\">$SOXL 20250117 38.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SOXL 20250117 38.0 CALL\">$SOXL 20250117 38.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","text":"我开仓了$SOXL 20250117 38.0 CALL$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381172491555248","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":381219764908232,"gmtCreate":1734102179387,"gmtModify":1734105186702,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AVGO 20241213 225.0 CALL\">$AVGO 20241213 225.0 CALL$ </a>,过热了","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AVGO 20241213 225.0 CALL\">$AVGO 20241213 225.0 CALL$ </a>,过热了","text":"我开仓了$AVGO 20241213 225.0 CALL$ ,过热了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381219764908232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":380866743066904,"gmtCreate":1734016111193,"gmtModify":1734363029127,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSTR 20250117 700.0 CALL\">$MSTR 20250117 700.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSTR 20250117 700.0 CALL\">$MSTR 20250117 700.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","text":"我开仓了$MSTR 20250117 700.0 CALL$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380866743066904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":380805499724160,"gmtCreate":1734014190051,"gmtModify":1734019934032,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I opened <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ADBE 20241213 470.0 PUT\">$ADBE 20241213 470.0 PUT$ </a> ,(null)","listText":"I opened <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ADBE 20241213 470.0 PUT\">$ADBE 20241213 470.0 PUT$ </a> ,(null)","text":"I opened $ADBE 20241213 470.0 PUT$ ,(null)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380805499724160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380508470935808,"gmtCreate":1733931722311,"gmtModify":1734017342598,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MARA 20250117 40.0 CALL\">$MARA 20250117 40.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MARA 20250117 40.0 CALL\">$MARA 20250117 40.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","text":"我开仓了$MARA 20250117 40.0 CALL$ 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财报各项数据的揭露,是事实对于市场预期的一个验证过程。因此,财报披露后,市场预期会迅速地收敛,体现为股价的波动。若财报数据好于市场预期,则股价上涨;若财报数据低于市场预期,则体现为股价下跌。 此外,公司在披露上季度的财报数据后,一般会对下季度的经营情况作出一个指引,这就在预期的收敛之后,重塑了一个新的预期,指引市场预期往这个方向上去,股价也会随之变动。 市场的预期是什么? 市场预期并不完全等同于分析师的一致预期。我们经常看到财报虽然超出分析师预期,但股价依然下跌的情况,这表明市场真实预期与分析师预期存在差异。市场的预期往往较为模糊,只有在财报发布后才能真正得以揭示。 财报中的确定性和不确定性 既然市场的真实预期是不确定的,对于我们的分析而言,股价的涨跌也是难以预测的,那还有什么是确定的呢? 时间的确定性。 财报是一个Known Unknowns,既然财报公布的时间是确定的,那么财报后股价变动的事件也是确定的,那就是财报公布后的盘前盘后,以及开盘的一段时间内,预期收敛和重建的过程会在这段时间进行,也就是说股价往往会大幅度变动。 波动率的确定性。 因为财报是一个关乎预期收敛和重建的过程,那么股价的波动往往不可避免。 因此,市场在财报公","listText":"万众瞩目的 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 财报,将于今日盘后出炉,而市场也早已暗流涌动。 今天蹭个热点,来聊聊如何通过期权,来参与财报的机会。 事件驱动型机会 财报交易是典型的事件驱动型机会(Event-driving)。 财报发布属于一个Known Unknowns事件,即发生的时间确定,但影响的结果和幅度未知。 财报中的预期的变化 众所周知,股价交易的就是市场对公司的预期。 而财报,是一个预期的验证和重塑的过程。 在当前的股价上,反应了市场交易者对于公司的一个平均预期。 财报各项数据的揭露,是事实对于市场预期的一个验证过程。因此,财报披露后,市场预期会迅速地收敛,体现为股价的波动。若财报数据好于市场预期,则股价上涨;若财报数据低于市场预期,则体现为股价下跌。 此外,公司在披露上季度的财报数据后,一般会对下季度的经营情况作出一个指引,这就在预期的收敛之后,重塑了一个新的预期,指引市场预期往这个方向上去,股价也会随之变动。 市场的预期是什么? 市场预期并不完全等同于分析师的一致预期。我们经常看到财报虽然超出分析师预期,但股价依然下跌的情况,这表明市场真实预期与分析师预期存在差异。市场的预期往往较为模糊,只有在财报发布后才能真正得以揭示。 财报中的确定性和不确定性 既然市场的真实预期是不确定的,对于我们的分析而言,股价的涨跌也是难以预测的,那还有什么是确定的呢? 时间的确定性。 财报是一个Known Unknowns,既然财报公布的时间是确定的,那么财报后股价变动的事件也是确定的,那就是财报公布后的盘前盘后,以及开盘的一段时间内,预期收敛和重建的过程会在这段时间进行,也就是说股价往往会大幅度变动。 波动率的确定性。 因为财报是一个关乎预期收敛和重建的过程,那么股价的波动往往不可避免。 因此,市场在财报公","text":"万众瞩目的 $英伟达(NVDA)$ 财报,将于今日盘后出炉,而市场也早已暗流涌动。 今天蹭个热点,来聊聊如何通过期权,来参与财报的机会。 事件驱动型机会 财报交易是典型的事件驱动型机会(Event-driving)。 财报发布属于一个Known Unknowns事件,即发生的时间确定,但影响的结果和幅度未知。 财报中的预期的变化 众所周知,股价交易的就是市场对公司的预期。 而财报,是一个预期的验证和重塑的过程。 在当前的股价上,反应了市场交易者对于公司的一个平均预期。 财报各项数据的揭露,是事实对于市场预期的一个验证过程。因此,财报披露后,市场预期会迅速地收敛,体现为股价的波动。若财报数据好于市场预期,则股价上涨;若财报数据低于市场预期,则体现为股价下跌。 此外,公司在披露上季度的财报数据后,一般会对下季度的经营情况作出一个指引,这就在预期的收敛之后,重塑了一个新的预期,指引市场预期往这个方向上去,股价也会随之变动。 市场的预期是什么? 市场预期并不完全等同于分析师的一致预期。我们经常看到财报虽然超出分析师预期,但股价依然下跌的情况,这表明市场真实预期与分析师预期存在差异。市场的预期往往较为模糊,只有在财报发布后才能真正得以揭示。 财报中的确定性和不确定性 既然市场的真实预期是不确定的,对于我们的分析而言,股价的涨跌也是难以预测的,那还有什么是确定的呢? 时间的确定性。 财报是一个Known Unknowns,既然财报公布的时间是确定的,那么财报后股价变动的事件也是确定的,那就是财报公布后的盘前盘后,以及开盘的一段时间内,预期收敛和重建的过程会在这段时间进行,也就是说股价往往会大幅度变动。 波动率的确定性。 因为财报是一个关乎预期收敛和重建的过程,那么股价的波动往往不可避免。 因此,市场在财报公","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dce3e58c3096cf7f55ac1c7f6d8912d0","width":"1179","height":"1400"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02b76653ea4706e0673734a6ed2400a1","width":"1179","height":"1796"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2306c24702c709bf6fe20024c90a5bc9","width":"1179","height":"1832"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":17,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343285657477400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3475613167969925","authorId":"3475613167969925","name":"小个太阳","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3475613167969925","idStr":"3475613167969925"},"content":"你这些组合功能在哪里设置的,为啥我没有","text":"你这些组合功能在哪里设置的,为啥我没有","html":"你这些组合功能在哪里设置的,为啥我没有"}],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358239106044040,"gmtCreate":1728479403179,"gmtModify":1728479548530,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"title":"A股和港股的Meme化:盛宴or屠宰场?","htmlText":"有段时间没更新了,最近杂事太多,今天蹭个热点,聊聊最近火热的A股和港股。 昨日重现? 近期美股有些许平淡,修复了8月的大跌后,波动收敛。市场的焦点转向了中国资产,对应的是港股、A股和中概股近两周的大幅波动。 9月23日,人行发布了一系列超预期的政策刺激,压抑已久的低迷市场情绪瞬间被点燃。短短6个交易日,上证指数单边爆涨27%,深成指暴涨42%;港股恒生指数也在9个交易日大涨27.37%。美股市场的中概股紧随其后走高。 A股更是在节后首个交易日创造了近3.5万亿的单日成交额,刷新了历史记录。 短视频和自媒体的宣传下,牛市的呼声四起,新股民蜂拥开户,甚至街边卖菜的大妈也开始讨论股市。 这让我想起了9年前那个炙热的下午,那个疯狂的大牛市。 那时我刚工作不久,手头不多的几万块钱在股市里短短时间内翻了倍,令我自信满满,觉得自己俨然已成股神。于是,我利用信用卡套出30多万,在高位加仓。 结果自然是惨痛不堪回首。 如今,仿佛昨日重现,水牛又一次向我们袭来。 但我却不再年轻了。 时间改变了很多,水牛可能还是那头水牛,但当年满怀热情的年轻人,在经历了市场的浩劫后,无一不是遍体鳞伤。 而今天的年轻人,在这股狂热中冲入市场,恐怕最终的结局也并不会有什么不同。 什么是Meme股? Meme股的概念来源于美股市场,也可翻译为“网红股”,来源于2021年著名的“散户大战华尔街”事件。最有名的也是meme股的鼻祖就是“Game Stop(游戏驿站)”。 Meme\"源自互联网文化,代表那些通过模仿和复制在人群中迅速传播的内容,通常带有幽默或讽刺的性质。在中文里表达类似意思的就是“梗”。 “Meme股”是受社交媒体影响广泛传播和炒作的股票,类似于网络迷因的病毒式传播特性。Meme的概念,后续也引申到币圈,出现了“meme币”。 在股票市场中,Meme股呈现出以下特点: 1. 通过网络社交媒体,进行病毒式的","listText":"有段时间没更新了,最近杂事太多,今天蹭个热点,聊聊最近火热的A股和港股。 昨日重现? 近期美股有些许平淡,修复了8月的大跌后,波动收敛。市场的焦点转向了中国资产,对应的是港股、A股和中概股近两周的大幅波动。 9月23日,人行发布了一系列超预期的政策刺激,压抑已久的低迷市场情绪瞬间被点燃。短短6个交易日,上证指数单边爆涨27%,深成指暴涨42%;港股恒生指数也在9个交易日大涨27.37%。美股市场的中概股紧随其后走高。 A股更是在节后首个交易日创造了近3.5万亿的单日成交额,刷新了历史记录。 短视频和自媒体的宣传下,牛市的呼声四起,新股民蜂拥开户,甚至街边卖菜的大妈也开始讨论股市。 这让我想起了9年前那个炙热的下午,那个疯狂的大牛市。 那时我刚工作不久,手头不多的几万块钱在股市里短短时间内翻了倍,令我自信满满,觉得自己俨然已成股神。于是,我利用信用卡套出30多万,在高位加仓。 结果自然是惨痛不堪回首。 如今,仿佛昨日重现,水牛又一次向我们袭来。 但我却不再年轻了。 时间改变了很多,水牛可能还是那头水牛,但当年满怀热情的年轻人,在经历了市场的浩劫后,无一不是遍体鳞伤。 而今天的年轻人,在这股狂热中冲入市场,恐怕最终的结局也并不会有什么不同。 什么是Meme股? Meme股的概念来源于美股市场,也可翻译为“网红股”,来源于2021年著名的“散户大战华尔街”事件。最有名的也是meme股的鼻祖就是“Game Stop(游戏驿站)”。 Meme\"源自互联网文化,代表那些通过模仿和复制在人群中迅速传播的内容,通常带有幽默或讽刺的性质。在中文里表达类似意思的就是“梗”。 “Meme股”是受社交媒体影响广泛传播和炒作的股票,类似于网络迷因的病毒式传播特性。Meme的概念,后续也引申到币圈,出现了“meme币”。 在股票市场中,Meme股呈现出以下特点: 1. 通过网络社交媒体,进行病毒式的","text":"有段时间没更新了,最近杂事太多,今天蹭个热点,聊聊最近火热的A股和港股。 昨日重现? 近期美股有些许平淡,修复了8月的大跌后,波动收敛。市场的焦点转向了中国资产,对应的是港股、A股和中概股近两周的大幅波动。 9月23日,人行发布了一系列超预期的政策刺激,压抑已久的低迷市场情绪瞬间被点燃。短短6个交易日,上证指数单边爆涨27%,深成指暴涨42%;港股恒生指数也在9个交易日大涨27.37%。美股市场的中概股紧随其后走高。 A股更是在节后首个交易日创造了近3.5万亿的单日成交额,刷新了历史记录。 短视频和自媒体的宣传下,牛市的呼声四起,新股民蜂拥开户,甚至街边卖菜的大妈也开始讨论股市。 这让我想起了9年前那个炙热的下午,那个疯狂的大牛市。 那时我刚工作不久,手头不多的几万块钱在股市里短短时间内翻了倍,令我自信满满,觉得自己俨然已成股神。于是,我利用信用卡套出30多万,在高位加仓。 结果自然是惨痛不堪回首。 如今,仿佛昨日重现,水牛又一次向我们袭来。 但我却不再年轻了。 时间改变了很多,水牛可能还是那头水牛,但当年满怀热情的年轻人,在经历了市场的浩劫后,无一不是遍体鳞伤。 而今天的年轻人,在这股狂热中冲入市场,恐怕最终的结局也并不会有什么不同。 什么是Meme股? Meme股的概念来源于美股市场,也可翻译为“网红股”,来源于2021年著名的“散户大战华尔街”事件。最有名的也是meme股的鼻祖就是“Game Stop(游戏驿站)”。 Meme\"源自互联网文化,代表那些通过模仿和复制在人群中迅速传播的内容,通常带有幽默或讽刺的性质。在中文里表达类似意思的就是“梗”。 “Meme股”是受社交媒体影响广泛传播和炒作的股票,类似于网络迷因的病毒式传播特性。Meme的概念,后续也引申到币圈,出现了“meme币”。 在股票市场中,Meme股呈现出以下特点: 1. 通过网络社交媒体,进行病毒式的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b944150def6dc1d06ec6c9b54442ab69","width":"1011","height":"776"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/963cc8bbff13026ee179ce0987552c19","width":"394","height":"266"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af64ca120cb73cec42674bf71ee68b99","width":"604","height":"296"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":8,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358239106044040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3579612413176972","authorId":"3579612413176972","name":"Yonny","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/231a2860cddd1bf2ffc3c16938f4673d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3579612413176972","idStr":"3579612413176972"},"content":"精品好文,赞啊,得研究下这个策略。 我记得之前 $VinFast Auto(VFS)$ 暴涨的时候,貌似也可以用collar套利,但当时是put的premium远高于call,反着做应该就行。。但那会儿唯一的风险,是short正股被recall的风险。而现在如果call更贵,貌似真的可以无风险了? [财迷] [财迷]","text":"精品好文,赞啊,得研究下这个策略。 我记得之前 $VinFast Auto(VFS)$ 暴涨的时候,貌似也可以用collar套利,但当时是put的premium远高于call,反着做应该就行。。但那会儿唯一的风险,是short正股被recall的风险。而现在如果call更贵,貌似真的可以无风险了? [财迷] [财迷]","html":"精品好文,赞啊,得研究下这个策略。 我记得之前 $VinFast Auto(VFS)$ 暴涨的时候,貌似也可以用collar套利,但当时是put的premium远高于call,反着做应该就行。。但那会儿唯一的风险,是short正股被recall的风险。而现在如果call更贵,貌似真的可以无风险了? [财迷] [财迷]"}],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":336629673767408,"gmtCreate":1723194848579,"gmtModify":1723281817769,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"title":"躬身入局","htmlText":"“If you have no skin in the game, you shouldn't be in the game. ”——Nassim Nicholas Taleb 从事个人投资已有一段时间,从最初的A股、港股,到如今专注于美股和期权交易,经历了起伏跌宕。这一路上,有得有失,但也积累了不少心得与体会。 不出意外,个人投资将成为我毕生的事业,我会持续投身其中,不断探索与学习。 开设这个公众号(欢迎关注公众号\"随机漫步的Frank\"),是为了记录和分享我在投资中的成长过程。 这里不仅仅讨论股票和期权,也会分享生活中的感悟。 为什么坚持个人投资? 躬身入局的意义 作为金融从业者,深感金融行业当前面临的困境,很大程度源于金融机构及从业者缺乏“躬身入局”的精神(no skin in the game),导致了严重的代理问题。 基金经理无论盈亏照收管理费,投行粉饰财报不受惩罚,分析师一味唱多无需担责,银行明知地产市场将崩坏仍放贷,影子银行则无顾忌地扩展庞氏骗局。 缺乏风险共担机制,金融机构及从业者不需为他们的决策负责,而将投资失败、错误建议和贷款损失的风险掩盖或转嫁给基金持有人、投资者和储户。 然而,风险并不会凭空消失。转移和掩盖风险的代价,可能是整个系统的崩溃。2008年金融危机已证明了这一点。 承担风险的勇气 从社会的整体系统来看,承担风险能够推动系统进化,提升效率,增强韧性。正如生物进化中的“优胜劣汰”法则,只有经历过挑战和风险的个体和系统,才能在变化中存活并发展壮大。 对于个人来说,这同样适用。 只有当把自己的利益与结果紧密相连,每一个决策都与我们的后果紧密相关时,才会真正审慎地对待每一个决策。 躬身入局,勇于承担风险,才能获得真正的智慧与成长,才能变得更加坚韧和有弹性(resilient)。 个人的勇气,在于对承担风险的无畏。而正是这些个人的勇气,才能避免系统性崩","listText":"“If you have no skin in the game, you shouldn't be in the game. ”——Nassim Nicholas Taleb 从事个人投资已有一段时间,从最初的A股、港股,到如今专注于美股和期权交易,经历了起伏跌宕。这一路上,有得有失,但也积累了不少心得与体会。 不出意外,个人投资将成为我毕生的事业,我会持续投身其中,不断探索与学习。 开设这个公众号(欢迎关注公众号\"随机漫步的Frank\"),是为了记录和分享我在投资中的成长过程。 这里不仅仅讨论股票和期权,也会分享生活中的感悟。 为什么坚持个人投资? 躬身入局的意义 作为金融从业者,深感金融行业当前面临的困境,很大程度源于金融机构及从业者缺乏“躬身入局”的精神(no skin in the game),导致了严重的代理问题。 基金经理无论盈亏照收管理费,投行粉饰财报不受惩罚,分析师一味唱多无需担责,银行明知地产市场将崩坏仍放贷,影子银行则无顾忌地扩展庞氏骗局。 缺乏风险共担机制,金融机构及从业者不需为他们的决策负责,而将投资失败、错误建议和贷款损失的风险掩盖或转嫁给基金持有人、投资者和储户。 然而,风险并不会凭空消失。转移和掩盖风险的代价,可能是整个系统的崩溃。2008年金融危机已证明了这一点。 承担风险的勇气 从社会的整体系统来看,承担风险能够推动系统进化,提升效率,增强韧性。正如生物进化中的“优胜劣汰”法则,只有经历过挑战和风险的个体和系统,才能在变化中存活并发展壮大。 对于个人来说,这同样适用。 只有当把自己的利益与结果紧密相连,每一个决策都与我们的后果紧密相关时,才会真正审慎地对待每一个决策。 躬身入局,勇于承担风险,才能获得真正的智慧与成长,才能变得更加坚韧和有弹性(resilient)。 个人的勇气,在于对承担风险的无畏。而正是这些个人的勇气,才能避免系统性崩","text":"“If you have no skin in the game, you shouldn't be in the game. ”——Nassim Nicholas Taleb 从事个人投资已有一段时间,从最初的A股、港股,到如今专注于美股和期权交易,经历了起伏跌宕。这一路上,有得有失,但也积累了不少心得与体会。 不出意外,个人投资将成为我毕生的事业,我会持续投身其中,不断探索与学习。 开设这个公众号(欢迎关注公众号\"随机漫步的Frank\"),是为了记录和分享我在投资中的成长过程。 这里不仅仅讨论股票和期权,也会分享生活中的感悟。 为什么坚持个人投资? 躬身入局的意义 作为金融从业者,深感金融行业当前面临的困境,很大程度源于金融机构及从业者缺乏“躬身入局”的精神(no skin in the game),导致了严重的代理问题。 基金经理无论盈亏照收管理费,投行粉饰财报不受惩罚,分析师一味唱多无需担责,银行明知地产市场将崩坏仍放贷,影子银行则无顾忌地扩展庞氏骗局。 缺乏风险共担机制,金融机构及从业者不需为他们的决策负责,而将投资失败、错误建议和贷款损失的风险掩盖或转嫁给基金持有人、投资者和储户。 然而,风险并不会凭空消失。转移和掩盖风险的代价,可能是整个系统的崩溃。2008年金融危机已证明了这一点。 承担风险的勇气 从社会的整体系统来看,承担风险能够推动系统进化,提升效率,增强韧性。正如生物进化中的“优胜劣汰”法则,只有经历过挑战和风险的个体和系统,才能在变化中存活并发展壮大。 对于个人来说,这同样适用。 只有当把自己的利益与结果紧密相连,每一个决策都与我们的后果紧密相关时,才会真正审慎地对待每一个决策。 躬身入局,勇于承担风险,才能获得真正的智慧与成长,才能变得更加坚韧和有弹性(resilient)。 个人的勇气,在于对承担风险的无畏。而正是这些个人的勇气,才能避免系统性崩","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/336629673767408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":299769475985512,"gmtCreate":1714205303742,"gmtModify":1730905255234,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/WDC 20240426 77.0 CALL\">$WDC 20240426 77.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/WDC 20240426 77.0 CALL\">$WDC 20240426 77.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","text":"我平仓了$WDC 20240426 77.0 CALL$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":20,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":8,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/299769475985512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":299768917926192,"gmtCreate":1714205293223,"gmtModify":1730904475564,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TEAM 20240426 250.0 CALL\">$TEAM 20240426 250.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TEAM 20240426 250.0 CALL\">$TEAM 20240426 250.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","text":"我平仓了$TEAM 20240426 250.0 CALL$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":18,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":8,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/299768917926192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2871,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3565742771032978","authorId":"3565742771032978","name":"Apple星晨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a272e114f2636a30db5717590638d87","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3565742771032978","idStr":"3565742771032978"},"content":"还是得看操作很流畅。","text":"还是得看操作很流畅。","html":"还是得看操作很流畅。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335163822731304,"gmtCreate":1722833763882,"gmtModify":1730905255207,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a>,可怕,割肉了","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a>,可怕,割肉了","text":"我平仓了$英伟达(NVDA)$ ,可怕,割肉了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":20,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335163822731304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4177763122101782","authorId":"4177763122101782","name":"crazywater","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16376cf078ec7d3ac7f6b8ec2f7de862","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4177763122101782","idStr":"4177763122101782"},"content":"UVXY怎么看","text":"UVXY怎么看","html":"UVXY怎么看"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":343006350262496,"gmtCreate":1724760232727,"gmtModify":1724767240032,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"title":"概率游戏——浅谈投资的本质","htmlText":"早前在老虎社区的访谈中<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/316469114626280?utm_source=%E5%B8%96%E5%AD%90&utm_campaign=316469114626280&utm_medium=wechat&platform=iOS&shareID=22a49c2508a07383ed0b84dd10715db4&invite=AV9LE1&lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">【实盘面对面】FrankAllin:概率思维看期权交易实战方法</a>,我简单分享了个人期权交易的基本框架,并将投资视为一种概率游戏。 在这里,我想借这个概念,进一步展开谈谈对投资的理解,以及如何构建适合自己的投资体系。 先谈谈我所理解的投资的本质是什么。 什么是投资? 根据维基百科的定义,\"Investment is traditionally defined as the \"commitment of resources to achieve later benefits\". If an investment involves money, then it can be defined as a \"commitment of money to receive more money later\". 实际上,当我们谈论投资时,一般都是指金钱的投资。 在这个前提下,投资可以简单地理解为: “放弃货币的现时使用价值,以获得未来的使用价值。” 因而,只要我们当下没有把持有的货币消费掉,那么我们就是在进行投资。 区别在于,我们选择不同的方式来实现货币的未来价值。 比如,将钱投入到实体经济(如开厂或开店)以期获得未来利润,这属于实体投资;而将钱投资到金融资产(如","listText":"早前在老虎社区的访谈中<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/316469114626280?utm_source=%E5%B8%96%E5%AD%90&utm_campaign=316469114626280&utm_medium=wechat&platform=iOS&shareID=22a49c2508a07383ed0b84dd10715db4&invite=AV9LE1&lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">【实盘面对面】FrankAllin:概率思维看期权交易实战方法</a>,我简单分享了个人期权交易的基本框架,并将投资视为一种概率游戏。 在这里,我想借这个概念,进一步展开谈谈对投资的理解,以及如何构建适合自己的投资体系。 先谈谈我所理解的投资的本质是什么。 什么是投资? 根据维基百科的定义,\"Investment is traditionally defined as the \"commitment of resources to achieve later benefits\". If an investment involves money, then it can be defined as a \"commitment of money to receive more money later\". 实际上,当我们谈论投资时,一般都是指金钱的投资。 在这个前提下,投资可以简单地理解为: “放弃货币的现时使用价值,以获得未来的使用价值。” 因而,只要我们当下没有把持有的货币消费掉,那么我们就是在进行投资。 区别在于,我们选择不同的方式来实现货币的未来价值。 比如,将钱投入到实体经济(如开厂或开店)以期获得未来利润,这属于实体投资;而将钱投资到金融资产(如","text":"早前在老虎社区的访谈中【实盘面对面】FrankAllin:概率思维看期权交易实战方法,我简单分享了个人期权交易的基本框架,并将投资视为一种概率游戏。 在这里,我想借这个概念,进一步展开谈谈对投资的理解,以及如何构建适合自己的投资体系。 先谈谈我所理解的投资的本质是什么。 什么是投资? 根据维基百科的定义,\"Investment is traditionally defined as the \"commitment of resources to achieve later benefits\". If an investment involves money, then it can be defined as a \"commitment of money to receive more money later\". 实际上,当我们谈论投资时,一般都是指金钱的投资。 在这个前提下,投资可以简单地理解为: “放弃货币的现时使用价值,以获得未来的使用价值。” 因而,只要我们当下没有把持有的货币消费掉,那么我们就是在进行投资。 区别在于,我们选择不同的方式来实现货币的未来价值。 比如,将钱投入到实体经济(如开厂或开店)以期获得未来利润,这属于实体投资;而将钱投资到金融资产(如","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb13484c93681879c387f2e191b5e106","width":"1024","height":"990"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343006350262496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6960,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":299768937984304,"gmtCreate":1714205298120,"gmtModify":1730905255287,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/WDC 20240426 60.0 PUT\">$WDC 20240426 60.0 PUT$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/WDC 20240426 60.0 PUT\">$WDC 20240426 60.0 PUT$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","text":"我平仓了$WDC 20240426 60.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":19,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/299768937984304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":343120695984328,"gmtCreate":1724809865037,"gmtModify":1730905255261,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ANF 20240830 125.0 PUT\">$ANF 20240830 125.0 PUT$ </a>,再卖个put","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ANF 20240830 125.0 PUT\">$ANF 20240830 125.0 PUT$ </a>,再卖个put","text":"我开仓了$ANF 20240830 125.0 PUT$ ,再卖个put","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343120695984328","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3563871037118306","authorId":"3563871037118306","name":"super1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/480f62fa32ae14bee243e7b68d3d355a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3563871037118306","idStr":"3563871037118306"},"content":"nvda做空波动率吗?","text":"nvda做空波动率吗?","html":"nvda做空波动率吗?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":299532801306672,"gmtCreate":1714147614955,"gmtModify":1732269587252,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/DPZ 20240503 450.0 PUT\">$DPZ 20240503 450.0 PUT$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/DPZ 20240503 450.0 PUT\">$DPZ 20240503 450.0 PUT$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","text":"我开仓了$DPZ 20240503 450.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/299532801306672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348678852821232,"gmtCreate":1726154016517,"gmtModify":1730905255367,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/RH 20240913 302.5 CALL\">$RH 20240913 302.5 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/RH 20240913 302.5 CALL\">$RH 20240913 302.5 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","text":"我开仓了$RH 20240913 302.5 CALL$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348678852821232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3563871037118306","authorId":"3563871037118306","name":"super1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/480f62fa32ae14bee243e7b68d3d355a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3563871037118306","idStr":"3563871037118306"},"content":"今晚不好啊,小票财报不能赌了,太妖了🥲","text":"今晚不好啊,小票财报不能赌了,太妖了🥲","html":"今晚不好啊,小票财报不能赌了,太妖了🥲"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":299533060964624,"gmtCreate":1714147587431,"gmtModify":1732269587326,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/DPZ 20240503 465.0 PUT\">$DPZ 20240503 465.0 PUT$ </a>,Put端也做一个。1:2的ratio","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/DPZ 20240503 465.0 PUT\">$DPZ 20240503 465.0 PUT$ </a>,Put端也做一个。1:2的ratio","text":"我开仓了$DPZ 20240503 465.0 PUT$ ,Put端也做一个。1:2的ratio","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/299533060964624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":283936045715768,"gmtCreate":1710336667160,"gmtModify":1720495014103,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SKIN 20240315 4.0 CALL\">$SKIN 20240315 4.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SKIN 20240315 4.0 CALL\">$SKIN 20240315 4.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","text":"我平仓了$SKIN 20240315 4.0 CALL$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/283936045715768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3542936198495193","authorId":"3542936198495193","name":"ContainerBeggar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56027323f5ed4c618b1da687a6559b93","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3542936198495193","idStr":"3542936198495193"},"content":"一个buy胜过好几个sell,就是风险有点大。","text":"一个buy胜过好几个sell,就是风险有点大。","html":"一个buy胜过好几个sell,就是风险有点大。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":309393006862344,"gmtCreate":1716563060028,"gmtModify":1730903764747,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/WDAY 20240524 232.5 PUT\">$WDAY 20240524 232.5 PUT$ </a>,手贱,侥幸心理未及时止损。这笔亏的不冤","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/WDAY 20240524 232.5 PUT\">$WDAY 20240524 232.5 PUT$ </a>,手贱,侥幸心理未及时止损。这笔亏的不冤","text":"我平仓了$WDAY 20240524 232.5 PUT$ ,手贱,侥幸心理未及时止损。这笔亏的不冤","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/309393006862344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3568968011253049","authorId":"3568968011253049","name":"Myjulian","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e6d6a9bf6d624a6b821e064eb1942f","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3568968011253049","idStr":"3568968011253049"},"content":"一开盘就跑就全身而退了,止盈止损都是铁律,我有几次也是犹豫了,亏大了。","text":"一开盘就跑就全身而退了,止盈止损都是铁律,我有几次也是犹豫了,亏大了。","html":"一开盘就跑就全身而退了,止盈止损都是铁律,我有几次也是犹豫了,亏大了。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":339217662517272,"gmtCreate":1723820967030,"gmtModify":1730904651358,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HRB 20240816 70.0 CALL\">$HRB 20240816 70.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HRB 20240816 70.0 CALL\">$HRB 20240816 70.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","text":"我开仓了$HRB 20240816 70.0 CALL$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339217662517272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":764,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316449994449080,"gmtCreate":1718285958930,"gmtModify":1730905255314,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AVGO 20240614 1640.0 CALL BUY 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