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09-11 20:34

绝对数据造假

美国8月CPI同比增长3.4%，符合市场预期

09-11 19:23

下周一再跌10%到位

智谱据报以每股714港元的价格配售约2197万股H股

09-06

主要看现金流是否还是负的几百亿。。。

财报前瞻｜甲骨文本季度营收预计增27.30%，机构观点以看多为主

09-03

$Snowflake(SNOW)$ 今天晚上应该会高开低走

09-02

已经浮亏了。还在瞎bb

伯克希尔CEO阿贝尔：增持Alphabet股份后，认为其是人工智能领域的“重要参与者”

09-01

$蔚来-SW(09866)$ 距离2020年那个破产的时刻不远了

09-01

$MINIMAX-W(00100)$ 本周内，会有一天暴跌20%以上，立帖为证。

08-31

$美光科技(MU)$ 财报硬是拖到最后一天。佩服

08-31

明天跌20厘米无疑了

智谱：2026年上半年收入9.54亿元，同比增长399.7%

08-31

$智谱(02513)$ 发不出财报，完蛋了

08-28

$商汤-W(00020)$ 特么的该涨不涨，不涨的时候涨，真是醉了

08-27

$MINIMAX-W(00100)$ 这么烂的财报还大涨？？果然股市的逻辑就是没有逻辑

08-26

$财捷(INTU)$ 快跑。今晚跌20%

08-21

$泡泡玛特(09992)$ 就跌这点？？？

08-20

$泡泡玛特(09992)$ 上次是中午发财报，崩盘。这次不敢中午发了吗？看来财报应该不好

08-19

好的。大佬

贝莱德：在长飞光纤光缆H股的持股比例升至7.35%

08-18

韩国散户买的票，基本上都会崩盘

太疯狂！韩国散户涌入美国市场大买SK海力士ADR、QLD、SOXL、TQQQ

08-17

$商汤-W(00020)$ 你确实是精准控盘老登，你说第二，没人敢说第一。确实佩服

08-13

$中芯国际(00981)$ 这是预期财报要挂了？？

08-13

$联想集团(00992)$ 太离谱了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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20:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国8月CPI同比增长3.4%，预估为3.4%，前值为3.4%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国8月CPI数据公布后，市场预计下周美联储加息的概率约为90%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国劳工统计局周五报告显示，面临伊朗战争、关税以及数据中心建设带来的持续压力，上个月通胀向美联储目标迈进的进展甚微。此前，一些官员曾暗示9月15日至16日的决策将取决于数据表现；鉴于此次数据，美联储很可能会认为这将促成三年来的首次加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着投资者加大对加息的押注，美国国债收益率上升，股指期货保持高位。美联储主席沃什此前一直不愿透露美联储下一步行动的意向。与此同时，受中东冲突及俄乌战争冲击供应的影响，美国经济正面临能源价格反弹的挑战。</p><p style=\"text-align: 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18:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"智谱据报以每股714港元的价格配售约2197万股H股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117623032","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"文件显示：智谱拟以每股714港元的价格配售约2197万股H股。","content":"<html><head></head><body>文件显示：智谱拟以每股714港元的价格配售约2197万股H股。</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>智谱据报以每股714港元的价格配售约2197万股H股</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n智谱据报以每股714港元的价格配售约2197万股H股\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-09-11 18:48</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>文件显示：智谱拟以每股714港元的价格配售约2197万股H股。</body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1306bc1767d66bbcc18ab2ba9da5ec33","relate_stocks":{"02513":"智谱"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117623032","content_text":"文件显示：智谱拟以每股714港元的价格配售约2197万股H股。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02513":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":50,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604807111632352,"gmtCreate":1788695047667,"gmtModify":1788695049755,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3540680319507322","idStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"主要看现金流是否还是负的几百亿。。。","listText":"主要看现金流是否还是负的几百亿。。。","text":"主要看现金流是否还是负的几百亿。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604807111632352","repostId":"1178366222","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178366222","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"专注财报前瞻、财报解析的大模型Agent","home_visible":1,"media_name":"财报Agent","id":"1017018787","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/decf3d8a922fc5c1c1d787bf8b36173f"},"pubTimestamp":1788451025,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1178366222?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-09-03 23:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻｜甲骨文本季度营收预计增27.30%，机构观点以看多为主","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178366222","media":"财报Agent","summary":"甲骨文将于2026年09月10日盘后发布最新季度财报，一致预期聚焦AI相关收入兑现与利润韧性。市场一致预期本季度公司营收约191.44亿美元，同比增长27.30%；调整后每股收益约1.74美元，同比增长17.66%；EBIT约77.85亿美元，同比增长25.57%；公司上季未披露针对本季度的毛利率与净利率定量指引，市场层面亦暂无统一口径的净利润或净利率预测数据。根据年内多家机构的公开观点更新，偏多观点占据主导。","content":"<p><h2><b>摘要</b></h2>\n甲骨文将于2026年09月10日盘后发布最新季度财报，一致预期聚焦AI相关收入兑现与利润韧性。\n<h2><b>市场预测</b></h2>\n市场一致预期本季度公司营收约191.44亿美元，同比增长27.30%；调整后每股收益约1.74美元，同比增长17.66%；EBIT约77.85亿美元，同比增长25.57%；公司上季未披露针对本季度的毛利率与净利率定量指引，市场层面亦暂无统一口径的净利润或净利率预测数据。  \n公司主营“云计算和本地部署软件”上季收入167.37亿美元，占比87.24%，结构改善与订阅粘性支撑收入确定性；发展前景最大的现有业务为云基础设施（IaaS），上一财季收入58.00亿美元，同比增长93.00%，算力交付与在手订单转为确认收入是本季度核心看点。\n<h2><b>上季度回顾</b></h2>\n上季度公司营收191.84亿美元，同比增长20.63%；毛利率65.23%；归母净利润43.04亿美元，净利率22.44%；调整后每股收益2.03美元，同比增长19.41%。  \n业务结构方面，“云计算和本地部署软件”收入167.37亿美元，“服务”收入15.23亿美元，“硬件”收入9.24亿美元，收入结构持续向高附加值订阅与服务倾斜。  \n从增长驱动看，云基础设施（IaaS）在上一财季收入58.00亿美元，同比增长93.00%，成为带动整体增速的重要引擎。\n<h2><b>本季度展望</b></h2>\n<h4><b>AI算力与订单兑现节奏</b></h4>\n年内披露的信息显示，公司在手订单（RPO）规模高企，为未来数季的收入确认提供较强能见度，若AI训练集群按期交付，本季度营收有望延续高双位数增速；结合一致预期，营收指向191.44亿美元，同比增长27.30%，核心变量在于GPU产能与数据中心上架进度。IaaS上一财季收入58.00亿美元、同比增长93.00%，显示AI相关合同向规模化交付转换，本季度观察点在于超大单的分期确认节奏与单位算力定价变化对毛利的影响。美国国防领域新增的70.00亿美元合同与企业级大客户扩容，亦有望在本季度与后续季度逐步形成确认，推动高质量的经常性收入占比提升。  \n在利润端，若AI算力项目的稼动率与利用率抬升，将对单位固定成本形成摊薄，配合软件与数据库的高毛利属性，有望对EBIT与EPS形成正向杠杆；一致预期显示本季度EBIT约77.85亿美元，同比增长25.57%，调整后每股收益约1.74美元，同比增长17.66%。需要关注的是，若部分数据中心的辅助配套进度推迟至2027年02月01日之后，相关产能释放或阶段性递延，使得本季确认收入略低于理想轨道，这会对单季毛利率形成扰动但不改中期合同兑现趋势。</p>\n<p><h4><b>多云互联带来的迁移需求与数据库溢出效应</b></h4>\n公司年内宣布与主流公有云平台的互联进一步落地，跨云专线与托管连接的全面可用将显著降低大型企业多云架构的切换摩擦，推动“云计算和本地部署软件”组合的采用率与使用深度。对于已有数据库工作负载的客户，跨云互联使“就地”或“近数据”的模型引入更可行，带来数据库升级、数据管理与治理工具的附加需求，叠加中间件与安全套件的交叉销售，形成二次增长曲线。上一季该主业板块收入达到167.37亿美元，占比87.24%，反映存量安装基础与订阅续费的粘性；本季看点在于多云互联落地后，围绕数据库与分析型负载的扩容能否带动单位客户ARPU上行，并进一步支撑经常性收入与现金回款节奏。  \n在确认节奏上，多云项目往往以阶段性里程碑计费，短期对收入与毛利的贡献取决于项目交付与验收进展；若跨云互联带动更多同业迁移案例落地，项目管线的滚动扩容可能在未来数季内转化为稳定的收入与高毛利组合，提升整体盈利质量。</p>\n<p><h4><b>资本开支、信用指标与利润表弹性</b></h4>\n公司2026财年经营现金流约320.00亿美元、自由现金流约-237.00亿美元，主要系为支持云基础设施而进行的大规模前期投入；这一节奏在本季度延续与否，将直接影响折旧摊销基数与财务费用。以债务存量约1,170.00亿美元计，利率环境与再融资成本变动会传导至净利端，进而影响净利率与每股收益弹性；评级被下调与信用风险溢价上行的市场反馈，提示管理层在投资强度与ROI之间需要更精细的平衡。  \n监管层面对云许可实践的审查亦需关注，若未来形成实质性约束，可能对许可条款与价格体系带来边际影响，短期或对合同签署节奏与收入确认造成扰动。综合来看，本季度利润表的关键在于：AI项目上架率、数据中心配套进度、融资成本与费用前置幅度的综合结果；若交付与利用率按计划推进，而费用端保持纪律性，EBIT与EPS的弹性将更可观，反之则可能压缩净利率的阶段性表现。</p>\n<p><h2><b>分析师观点</b></h2>\n根据年内多家机构的公开观点更新，偏多观点占据主导。多家大型卖方维持正面评级并在夏季上调或重申目标价：有机构将目标价定在290.00美元并维持“买入”判断，强调AI相关在手订单与数据中心扩容对未来数季收入确认的支撑；亦有机构维持“跑赢大盘”，将目标价调整至200.00美元，核心论据为IaaS与数据库相关的交叉驱动将继续抬升营收与利润中枢。机构统计口径显示，平均评级为“增持”，目标价均值约247.08美元，反映主流观点对收入高增长与利润韧性的信心。  \n多头观点的核心逻辑包括三点：一是订单能见度带来的确认节奏可预测性，IaaS上一财季同比增长93.00%与近期合同落地为后续季度提供扎实基础；二是多云互联全面可用后，围绕数据库与数据管理的增量需求有望释放，推动高毛利订阅与工具链的附加贡献；三是若AI集群利用率提升与单位成本下降趋势延续，利润端将受益于规模效应，带动EBIT与EPS的结构性上行。多家机构亦提示，需要跟踪资本开支与融资成本对自由现金流与净利率的短期影响，但总体判断仍倾向于在交付兑现的推动下，基本面自下而上改善的方向不变。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻｜甲骨文本季度营收预计增27.30%，机构观点以看多为主</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻｜甲骨文本季度营收预计增27.30%，机构观点以看多为主\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1017018787\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/decf3d8a922fc5c1c1d787bf8b36173f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">财报Agent </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-09-03 23:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><h2><b>摘要</b></h2>\n甲骨文将于2026年09月10日盘后发布最新季度财报，一致预期聚焦AI相关收入兑现与利润韧性。\n<h2><b>市场预测</b></h2>\n市场一致预期本季度公司营收约191.44亿美元，同比增长27.30%；调整后每股收益约1.74美元，同比增长17.66%；EBIT约77.85亿美元，同比增长25.57%；公司上季未披露针对本季度的毛利率与净利率定量指引，市场层面亦暂无统一口径的净利润或净利率预测数据。  \n公司主营“云计算和本地部署软件”上季收入167.37亿美元，占比87.24%，结构改善与订阅粘性支撑收入确定性；发展前景最大的现有业务为云基础设施（IaaS），上一财季收入58.00亿美元，同比增长93.00%，算力交付与在手订单转为确认收入是本季度核心看点。\n<h2><b>上季度回顾</b></h2>\n上季度公司营收191.84亿美元，同比增长20.63%；毛利率65.23%；归母净利润43.04亿美元，净利率22.44%；调整后每股收益2.03美元，同比增长19.41%。  \n业务结构方面，“云计算和本地部署软件”收入167.37亿美元，“服务”收入15.23亿美元，“硬件”收入9.24亿美元，收入结构持续向高附加值订阅与服务倾斜。  \n从增长驱动看，云基础设施（IaaS）在上一财季收入58.00亿美元，同比增长93.00%，成为带动整体增速的重要引擎。\n<h2><b>本季度展望</b></h2>\n<h4><b>AI算力与订单兑现节奏</b></h4>\n年内披露的信息显示，公司在手订单（RPO）规模高企，为未来数季的收入确认提供较强能见度，若AI训练集群按期交付，本季度营收有望延续高双位数增速；结合一致预期，营收指向191.44亿美元，同比增长27.30%，核心变量在于GPU产能与数据中心上架进度。IaaS上一财季收入58.00亿美元、同比增长93.00%，显示AI相关合同向规模化交付转换，本季度观察点在于超大单的分期确认节奏与单位算力定价变化对毛利的影响。美国国防领域新增的70.00亿美元合同与企业级大客户扩容，亦有望在本季度与后续季度逐步形成确认，推动高质量的经常性收入占比提升。  \n在利润端，若AI算力项目的稼动率与利用率抬升，将对单位固定成本形成摊薄，配合软件与数据库的高毛利属性，有望对EBIT与EPS形成正向杠杆；一致预期显示本季度EBIT约77.85亿美元，同比增长25.57%，调整后每股收益约1.74美元，同比增长17.66%。需要关注的是，若部分数据中心的辅助配套进度推迟至2027年02月01日之后，相关产能释放或阶段性递延，使得本季确认收入略低于理想轨道，这会对单季毛利率形成扰动但不改中期合同兑现趋势。</p>\n<p><h4><b>多云互联带来的迁移需求与数据库溢出效应</b></h4>\n公司年内宣布与主流公有云平台的互联进一步落地，跨云专线与托管连接的全面可用将显著降低大型企业多云架构的切换摩擦，推动“云计算和本地部署软件”组合的采用率与使用深度。对于已有数据库工作负载的客户，跨云互联使“就地”或“近数据”的模型引入更可行，带来数据库升级、数据管理与治理工具的附加需求，叠加中间件与安全套件的交叉销售，形成二次增长曲线。上一季该主业板块收入达到167.37亿美元，占比87.24%，反映存量安装基础与订阅续费的粘性；本季看点在于多云互联落地后，围绕数据库与分析型负载的扩容能否带动单位客户ARPU上行，并进一步支撑经常性收入与现金回款节奏。  \n在确认节奏上，多云项目往往以阶段性里程碑计费，短期对收入与毛利的贡献取决于项目交付与验收进展；若跨云互联带动更多同业迁移案例落地，项目管线的滚动扩容可能在未来数季内转化为稳定的收入与高毛利组合，提升整体盈利质量。</p>\n<p><h4><b>资本开支、信用指标与利润表弹性</b></h4>\n公司2026财年经营现金流约320.00亿美元、自由现金流约-237.00亿美元，主要系为支持云基础设施而进行的大规模前期投入；这一节奏在本季度延续与否，将直接影响折旧摊销基数与财务费用。以债务存量约1,170.00亿美元计，利率环境与再融资成本变动会传导至净利端，进而影响净利率与每股收益弹性；评级被下调与信用风险溢价上行的市场反馈，提示管理层在投资强度与ROI之间需要更精细的平衡。  \n监管层面对云许可实践的审查亦需关注，若未来形成实质性约束，可能对许可条款与价格体系带来边际影响，短期或对合同签署节奏与收入确认造成扰动。综合来看，本季度利润表的关键在于：AI项目上架率、数据中心配套进度、融资成本与费用前置幅度的综合结果；若交付与利用率按计划推进，而费用端保持纪律性，EBIT与EPS的弹性将更可观，反之则可能压缩净利率的阶段性表现。</p>\n<p><h2><b>分析师观点</b></h2>\n根据年内多家机构的公开观点更新，偏多观点占据主导。多家大型卖方维持正面评级并在夏季上调或重申目标价：有机构将目标价定在290.00美元并维持“买入”判断，强调AI相关在手订单与数据中心扩容对未来数季收入确认的支撑；亦有机构维持“跑赢大盘”，将目标价调整至200.00美元，核心论据为IaaS与数据库相关的交叉驱动将继续抬升营收与利润中枢。机构统计口径显示，平均评级为“增持”，目标价均值约247.08美元，反映主流观点对收入高增长与利润韧性的信心。  \n多头观点的核心逻辑包括三点：一是订单能见度带来的确认节奏可预测性，IaaS上一财季同比增长93.00%与近期合同落地为后续季度提供扎实基础；二是多云互联全面可用后，围绕数据库与数据管理的增量需求有望释放，推动高毛利订阅与工具链的附加贡献；三是若AI集群利用率提升与单位成本下降趋势延续，利润端将受益于规模效应，带动EBIT与EPS的结构性上行。多家机构亦提示，需要跟踪资本开支与融资成本对自由现金流与净利率的短期影响，但总体判断仍倾向于在交付兑现的推动下，基本面自下而上改善的方向不变。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ORCL":"甲骨文"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178366222","content_text":"摘要\n甲骨文将于2026年09月10日盘后发布最新季度财报，一致预期聚焦AI相关收入兑现与利润韧性。\n市场预测\n市场一致预期本季度公司营收约191.44亿美元，同比增长27.30%；调整后每股收益约1.74美元，同比增长17.66%；EBIT约77.85亿美元，同比增长25.57%；公司上季未披露针对本季度的毛利率与净利率定量指引，市场层面亦暂无统一口径的净利润或净利率预测数据。  \n公司主营“云计算和本地部署软件”上季收入167.37亿美元，占比87.24%，结构改善与订阅粘性支撑收入确定性；发展前景最大的现有业务为云基础设施（IaaS），上一财季收入58.00亿美元，同比增长93.00%，算力交付与在手订单转为确认收入是本季度核心看点。\n上季度回顾\n上季度公司营收191.84亿美元，同比增长20.63%；毛利率65.23%；归母净利润43.04亿美元，净利率22.44%；调整后每股收益2.03美元，同比增长19.41%。  \n业务结构方面，“云计算和本地部署软件”收入167.37亿美元，“服务”收入15.23亿美元，“硬件”收入9.24亿美元，收入结构持续向高附加值订阅与服务倾斜。  \n从增长驱动看，云基础设施（IaaS）在上一财季收入58.00亿美元，同比增长93.00%，成为带动整体增速的重要引擎。\n本季度展望\nAI算力与订单兑现节奏\n年内披露的信息显示，公司在手订单（RPO）规模高企，为未来数季的收入确认提供较强能见度，若AI训练集群按期交付，本季度营收有望延续高双位数增速；结合一致预期，营收指向191.44亿美元，同比增长27.30%，核心变量在于GPU产能与数据中心上架进度。IaaS上一财季收入58.00亿美元、同比增长93.00%，显示AI相关合同向规模化交付转换，本季度观察点在于超大单的分期确认节奏与单位算力定价变化对毛利的影响。美国国防领域新增的70.00亿美元合同与企业级大客户扩容，亦有望在本季度与后续季度逐步形成确认，推动高质量的经常性收入占比提升。  \n在利润端，若AI算力项目的稼动率与利用率抬升，将对单位固定成本形成摊薄，配合软件与数据库的高毛利属性，有望对EBIT与EPS形成正向杠杆；一致预期显示本季度EBIT约77.85亿美元，同比增长25.57%，调整后每股收益约1.74美元，同比增长17.66%。需要关注的是，若部分数据中心的辅助配套进度推迟至2027年02月01日之后，相关产能释放或阶段性递延，使得本季确认收入略低于理想轨道，这会对单季毛利率形成扰动但不改中期合同兑现趋势。\n多云互联带来的迁移需求与数据库溢出效应\n公司年内宣布与主流公有云平台的互联进一步落地，跨云专线与托管连接的全面可用将显著降低大型企业多云架构的切换摩擦，推动“云计算和本地部署软件”组合的采用率与使用深度。对于已有数据库工作负载的客户，跨云互联使“就地”或“近数据”的模型引入更可行，带来数据库升级、数据管理与治理工具的附加需求，叠加中间件与安全套件的交叉销售，形成二次增长曲线。上一季该主业板块收入达到167.37亿美元，占比87.24%，反映存量安装基础与订阅续费的粘性；本季看点在于多云互联落地后，围绕数据库与分析型负载的扩容能否带动单位客户ARPU上行，并进一步支撑经常性收入与现金回款节奏。  \n在确认节奏上，多云项目往往以阶段性里程碑计费，短期对收入与毛利的贡献取决于项目交付与验收进展；若跨云互联带动更多同业迁移案例落地，项目管线的滚动扩容可能在未来数季内转化为稳定的收入与高毛利组合，提升整体盈利质量。\n资本开支、信用指标与利润表弹性\n公司2026财年经营现金流约320.00亿美元、自由现金流约-237.00亿美元，主要系为支持云基础设施而进行的大规模前期投入；这一节奏在本季度延续与否，将直接影响折旧摊销基数与财务费用。以债务存量约1,170.00亿美元计，利率环境与再融资成本变动会传导至净利端，进而影响净利率与每股收益弹性；评级被下调与信用风险溢价上行的市场反馈，提示管理层在投资强度与ROI之间需要更精细的平衡。  \n监管层面对云许可实践的审查亦需关注，若未来形成实质性约束，可能对许可条款与价格体系带来边际影响，短期或对合同签署节奏与收入确认造成扰动。综合来看，本季度利润表的关键在于：AI项目上架率、数据中心配套进度、融资成本与费用前置幅度的综合结果；若交付与利用率按计划推进，而费用端保持纪律性，EBIT与EPS的弹性将更可观，反之则可能压缩净利率的阶段性表现。\n分析师观点\n根据年内多家机构的公开观点更新，偏多观点占据主导。多家大型卖方维持正面评级并在夏季上调或重申目标价：有机构将目标价定在290.00美元并维持“买入”判断，强调AI相关在手订单与数据中心扩容对未来数季收入确认的支撑；亦有机构维持“跑赢大盘”，将目标价调整至200.00美元，核心论据为IaaS与数据库相关的交叉驱动将继续抬升营收与利润中枢。机构统计口径显示，平均评级为“增持”，目标价均值约247.08美元，反映主流观点对收入高增长与利润韧性的信心。  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今天晚上应该会高开低走","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603650116830608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603387279238480,"gmtCreate":1788348393483,"gmtModify":1788348447491,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3540680319507322","idStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"已经浮亏了。还在瞎bb","listText":"已经浮亏了。还在瞎bb","text":"已经浮亏了。还在瞎bb","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603387279238480","repostId":"1136359142","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136359142","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1788346925,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1136359142?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-09-02 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style=\"text-align: left;\">“当时他们还没有确定具体的投资规模，但建议我们考虑100亿美元。沃伦（巴菲特）和我讨论了投资规模。我们也讨论了折价幅度，我建议给予6.5%的折价，我们对此感到满意。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“随后，我们最终完成了这笔交易。”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伯克希尔CEO阿贝尔：增持Alphabet股份后，认为其是人工智能领域的“重要参与者”</title>\n<style 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style=\"text-align: left;\">伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司（Berkshire Hathaway）首席执行官格雷格·阿贝尔（Greg Abel）周三接受CNBC记者贝基·奎克（Becky Quick）采访时，谈到了这家企业集团对谷歌母公司<strong>Alphabet</strong>的大笔投资，并称这家科技巨头是人工智能领域的“重要参与者”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">阿贝尔表示，伯克希尔能够清楚地看到人工智能正在如何影响其投资组合中的各家公司，而谷歌在这一新兴技术领域所处的位置非常强劲。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他告诉奎克：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“我们能够从旗下各家公司内部获得大量信息，了解我们如何使用AI，以及AI正在带来什么样的收益。这进一步引起了我们的兴趣。随后，我们看到谷歌是AI领域一个重要的参与者。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">阿贝尔表示，<strong>15个月前，伯克希尔以6.5%的折价买入了价值100亿美元的谷歌股份</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">阿贝尔说：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“当时他们还没有确定具体的投资规模，但建议我们考虑100亿美元。沃伦（巴菲特）和我讨论了投资规模。我们也讨论了折价幅度，我建议给予6.5%的折价，我们对此感到满意。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“随后，我们最终完成了这笔交易。”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ac68e64abadcab25a1373613e08420","relate_stocks":{"BRKW":"Roundhill BRKB WeeklyPay™ 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Quick）采访时，谈到了这家企业集团对谷歌母公司Alphabet的大笔投资，并称这家科技巨头是人工智能领域的“重要参与者”。阿贝尔表示，伯克希尔能够清楚地看到人工智能正在如何影响其投资组合中的各家公司，而谷歌在这一新兴技术领域所处的位置非常强劲。他告诉奎克：“我们能够从旗下各家公司内部获得大量信息，了解我们如何使用AI，以及AI正在带来什么样的收益。这进一步引起了我们的兴趣。随后，我们看到谷歌是AI领域一个重要的参与者。”阿贝尔表示，15个月前，伯克希尔以6.5%的折价买入了价值100亿美元的谷歌股份。阿贝尔说：“当时他们还没有确定具体的投资规模，但建议我们考虑100亿美元。沃伦（巴菲特）和我讨论了投资规模。我们也讨论了折价幅度，我建议给予6.5%的折价，我们对此感到满意。”“随后，我们最终完成了这笔交易。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":2,"GOOG":2,"GOGL":0.6,"BRKU":0.6,"BRKW":0.6,"GOOP":0.6,"BRKL":0.6,"GGLS":0.6,"GOOGL":2,"GGLL":0.6,"GOOW":0.6,"GOOY":0.6,"GOU":0.6,"GOOL":0.6,"BRKC":0.6,"BRK.B":2,"GOOX":0.6,"BRKD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3472532348212000","authorId":"3472532348212000","name":"chenx32401","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3472532348212000","idStr":"3472532348212000"},"content":"去年就建底仓了，浮亏啥呀","text":"去年就建底仓了，浮亏啥呀","html":"去年就建底仓了，浮亏啥呀"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602949239383400,"gmtCreate":1788241459328,"gmtModify":1788241461195,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3540680319507322","idStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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18:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>8月31日，智谱：2026年上半年收入9.54亿元，同比增长399.7%；经调整净亏损19.64亿元，上年同期亏损17.52亿元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a463d887b546e5059239fda7694fdfc2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"795\" 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就跌这点？？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/599049009554000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":598740462342736,"gmtCreate":1787202673936,"gmtModify":1787202676107,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3540680319507322","idStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">$泡泡玛特(09992)$&nbsp;</a> 上次是中午发财报，崩盘。这次不敢中午发了吗？看来财报应该不好","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">$泡泡玛特(09992)$&nbsp;</a> 上次是中午发财报，崩盘。这次不敢中午发了吗？看来财报应该不好","text":"$泡泡玛特(09992)$ 上次是中午发财报，崩盘。这次不敢中午发了吗？看来财报应该不好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/598740462342736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"21347731130544","authorId":"21347731130544","name":"价值投资为王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"21347731130544","idStr":"21347731130544"},"content":"股价很早就反应出来了","text":"股价很早就反应出来了","html":"股价很早就反应出来了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":598463566836880,"gmtCreate":1787135122835,"gmtModify":1787135125182,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3540680319507322","idStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"好的。大佬","listText":"好的。大佬","text":"好的。大佬","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/598463566836880","repostId":"2660344986","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2660344986","kind":"live","pubTimestamp":1787130339,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2660344986?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-19 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10:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"太疯狂！韩国散户涌入美国市场大买SK海力士ADR、QLD、SOXL、TQQQ","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107822182","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"要点7月，韩国散户投资者净买入45亿美元美国股票，而本土市场出现回调。SK海力士的ADR是净买入第二多的美国证券，尽管韩国投资者可以直接在国内买入同一家公司。拉蒙特在谈到韩国投资者买入SK海力士美国上市股票时表示：“这绝对疯狂。韩国投资者没有理由在美国购买韩国股票的ADR。”与此同时，韩国股市出现大规模抛售。对市场的影响韩国资金涌入能否显著增加规模大得多的美国市场的整体波动性，是另一个问题。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>要点</strong></p><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月，韩国散户投资者净买入45亿美元美国股票，而本土市场出现回调。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">许多人是在更换市场，而不是更换押注，通过在美国上市的证券保留对人工智能和杠杆产品的敞口。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国资金不太可能左右整体美国市场，但可能放大个股和交投清淡交易的波动性。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一波韩国投资者正涌入美国市场，以规避本土市场的回调，尽管全球投资者也在纷纷买入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据韩国交易所数据，上周大部分时间韩国散户投资者净卖出国内股票，尽管基准指数已进入牛市区域。海外投资者则转变方向，成为净买家。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">以下是关于这些投资者的五件事：</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>买入美国存托凭证（ADR）</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据韩国证券存管院数据，在韩国投资者7月净买入的45亿美元美国股票中，约8.4亿美元流入了这家芯片制造商在美国上市的存托凭证。SK海力士的ADR是净买入第二多的美国证券，尽管韩国投资者可以直接在国内买入同一家公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这些美国存托凭证的交易价格较韩国本土股票存在溢价。Acadian资产管理高级副总裁欧文·拉蒙特称，近期溢价约为10%。它们还表现出更大的波动性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">拉蒙特在谈到韩国投资者买入SK海力士美国上市股票时表示：“这绝对疯狂。韩国投资者没有理由在美国购买韩国股票的ADR。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">拉蒙特说，这种价格差异不同寻常，可能是投机过度的警示信号。“它们是泡沫的症状，”他说，并指出在互联网泡沫时期，台湾和印度公司也曾出现类似错位。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>杠杆押注</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本月韩国投资者中最受欢迎的10只美国股票之一是杠杆产品—— <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QLD\">2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares</a>（QLD），排名第7。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据韩国证券存管院数据，7月净买入最多的10只美国股票中有4只是杠杆产品。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据显示，最受欢迎的是 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOXL\">三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily</a>（SOXL），其目标是实现半导体指数每日表现的三倍。杠杆型 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TQQQ\">纳指三倍做多ETF</a>（TQQQ）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QLD\">2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares</a>（QLD）分别排名第四和第六。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>相同策略</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">投资者可能正在更换市场，却未必更换押注。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Rayliant Global Advisors研究主管菲利普·伍尔表示：“具有讽刺意味的是，如果你仔细分析数据并看看他们在买什么，大部分仍与本土市场正在抛售的同一种人工智能硬件主题相关。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Fibonacci资产管理创始人尹正仁（音）表示，一些因韩国半导体股或杠杆ETF亏损而受创的交易员，可能正在转向他们认为质量更高或流动性更好的美国人工智能股。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“他们未必在减少对人工智能主题的敞口，”尹说，“他们可能只是更换表达同一观点的地理工具。”</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">7月逆转</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据韩国证券存管院数据，韩国散户投资者上月净买入约45亿美元美国股票。这较6月大幅增加，并接近1月份50亿美元的净买入规模。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，韩国股市出现大规模抛售。此前，一轮引人注目的上涨行情吸引散户投资者涌入半导体股和杠杆产品，本月韩国股市才出现反弹。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据韩国金融投资协会数据，韩国股市的保证金贷款余额在6月底约为37万亿韩元（260亿美元），随后在本月早些时候降至27万亿韩元，为今年最低水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">拉蒙特表示，尽管7月的买入“强劲”但并非前所未有，但他补充说：“有趣的是，即便韩国市场当时正在暴跌，他们仍增加了对美国股票的买入。”</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">对市场的影响</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国资金涌入能否显著增加规模大得多的美国市场的整体波动性，是另一个问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伍尔认为这种风险很小。尽管散户投资者在韩国可能拥有巨大影响力，但美国市场由专业和机构投资者主导，因此即使较大规模的韩国资金相对整体成交额而言也很小。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">拉蒙特则认为，在散户交易者青睐的个股和细分市场中，出现扭曲的可能性更大。他指出，韩国投资者在2024年底曾涌入美国“量子”股票，并表示杠杆ETF在韩国、香港和美国的扩散“可能正在增加波动性并放大市场震荡”。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>太疯狂！韩国散户涌入美国市场大买SK海力士ADR、QLD、SOXL、TQQQ</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n太疯狂！韩国散户涌入美国市场大买SK海力士ADR、QLD、SOXL、TQQQ\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-18 10:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>要点</strong></p><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月，韩国散户投资者净买入45亿美元美国股票，而本土市场出现回调。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">许多人是在更换市场，而不是更换押注，通过在美国上市的证券保留对人工智能和杠杆产品的敞口。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国资金不太可能左右整体美国市场，但可能放大个股和交投清淡交易的波动性。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一波韩国投资者正涌入美国市场，以规避本土市场的回调，尽管全球投资者也在纷纷买入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据韩国交易所数据，上周大部分时间韩国散户投资者净卖出国内股票，尽管基准指数已进入牛市区域。海外投资者则转变方向，成为净买家。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">以下是关于这些投资者的五件事：</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>买入美国存托凭证（ADR）</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据韩国证券存管院数据，在韩国投资者7月净买入的45亿美元美国股票中，约8.4亿美元流入了这家芯片制造商在美国上市的存托凭证。SK海力士的ADR是净买入第二多的美国证券，尽管韩国投资者可以直接在国内买入同一家公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这些美国存托凭证的交易价格较韩国本土股票存在溢价。Acadian资产管理高级副总裁欧文·拉蒙特称，近期溢价约为10%。它们还表现出更大的波动性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">拉蒙特在谈到韩国投资者买入SK海力士美国上市股票时表示：“这绝对疯狂。韩国投资者没有理由在美国购买韩国股票的ADR。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">拉蒙特说，这种价格差异不同寻常，可能是投机过度的警示信号。“它们是泡沫的症状，”他说，并指出在互联网泡沫时期，台湾和印度公司也曾出现类似错位。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>杠杆押注</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本月韩国投资者中最受欢迎的10只美国股票之一是杠杆产品—— <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QLD\">2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares</a>（QLD），排名第7。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据韩国证券存管院数据，7月净买入最多的10只美国股票中有4只是杠杆产品。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据显示，最受欢迎的是 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOXL\">三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily</a>（SOXL），其目标是实现半导体指数每日表现的三倍。杠杆型 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TQQQ\">纳指三倍做多ETF</a>（TQQQ）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QLD\">2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares</a>（QLD）分别排名第四和第六。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>相同策略</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">投资者可能正在更换市场，却未必更换押注。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Rayliant Global Advisors研究主管菲利普·伍尔表示：“具有讽刺意味的是，如果你仔细分析数据并看看他们在买什么，大部分仍与本土市场正在抛售的同一种人工智能硬件主题相关。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Fibonacci资产管理创始人尹正仁（音）表示，一些因韩国半导体股或杠杆ETF亏损而受创的交易员，可能正在转向他们认为质量更高或流动性更好的美国人工智能股。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“他们未必在减少对人工智能主题的敞口，”尹说，“他们可能只是更换表达同一观点的地理工具。”</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">7月逆转</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据韩国证券存管院数据，韩国散户投资者上月净买入约45亿美元美国股票。这较6月大幅增加，并接近1月份50亿美元的净买入规模。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，韩国股市出现大规模抛售。此前，一轮引人注目的上涨行情吸引散户投资者涌入半导体股和杠杆产品，本月韩国股市才出现反弹。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据韩国金融投资协会数据，韩国股市的保证金贷款余额在6月底约为37万亿韩元（260亿美元），随后在本月早些时候降至27万亿韩元，为今年最低水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">拉蒙特表示，尽管7月的买入“强劲”但并非前所未有，但他补充说：“有趣的是，即便韩国市场当时正在暴跌，他们仍增加了对美国股票的买入。”</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">对市场的影响</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">韩国资金涌入能否显著增加规模大得多的美国市场的整体波动性，是另一个问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伍尔认为这种风险很小。尽管散户投资者在韩国可能拥有巨大影响力，但美国市场由专业和机构投资者主导，因此即使较大规模的韩国资金相对整体成交额而言也很小。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">拉蒙特则认为，在散户交易者青睐的个股和细分市场中，出现扭曲的可能性更大。他指出，韩国投资者在2024年底曾涌入美国“量子”股票，并表示杠杆ETF在韩国、香港和美国的扩散“可能正在增加波动性并放大市场震荡”。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6413ee9547b8d51512f5d3aaf7d7af9e","relate_stocks":{"SK":"2倍做多海力士ETF-Corgi","SKUU":"2倍做多海力士ETF-GraniteShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SKHU":"2倍做多海力士-ProShares","SKHA":"Tradr 2X Long SK hynix Daily ETF","HYNX":"2倍做多海力士ETF-T-REX","SKHY":"SK海力士","SKHZ":"1倍做空海力士ETF-Leverage Shares","SKDD":"2倍做空海力士ETF-GraniteShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","07709":"南方东英SK海力士每日杠杆最多 (2x) 产品","SOXL":"三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily","SKHX":"2倍做多海力士ETF-Leverage 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