BenBina的个人主页 - 老虎社区

BenBina

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IP属地：重庆

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4主题

0勋章

07-23 16:48

先证明10年后你还活着，其次证明10年后泡泡玛特还没退市

段永平：10年内大概率不会卖泡泡玛特股票，拟卖出SpaceX、特斯拉、Palantir的Put

07-22 22:37

$GE Vernova Inc.(GEV)$ 能不能痛快点，要大跌就来个20%

07-22 00:18

$美光科技(MU)$ damn

07-21

$谷歌(GOOG)$ 财报前出利好消息，说明财报大概率跪了

07-20

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 过两天财报，总要表现一下

07-20

这巫婆就是接盘侠专业户

美股异动 | SpaceX跌逾2%，木头姐逆势大手笔加仓

07-20

$苹果(AAPL)$ 涨得太过分了，还做头把交椅。只有你回撤15%-20%，其他股票才能有流动性，毕竟市场总的筹码就那么多

07-17

$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ 拜托，别挣扎了，跌到100好加仓

07-17

35%好吧。你这数学是体育老师教的吗

美光较6月高点回落30%，华尔街重估AI存储周期：估值、盈利峰值与价格拐点成焦点

07-16

$甲骨文(ORCL)$ AI浪潮，本来就没有你的份儿，你非要挤进去瞎折腾，现在好了吧

07-16

$台积电(TSM)$ 今天晚上跌10个点不过分。毕竟你也一年难得大跌一次

07-16

一会儿看会不会打脸

派杰投资：将联合健康的目标价从420美元上调至475美元。

07-15

别瞎比比，盘前这走势就是开盘会大跌

华尔街集体看多：ASML产能激增，内存“见顶论”可以休矣！

07-15

$阿斯麦(ASML)$ 吃相难看。如果不能大涨，那就开盘跌20%吧

07-15

$阿斯麦(ASML)$ 吃相难看

07-15

$昭衍新药(06127)$ 莫名其妙

07-14

$奈飞(NFLX)$ 好猥琐的走势，不能争气吗

07-14

$IBM(IBM)$ 提前跪下，不讲武德。本来说赌财报的末日期权大赚，结果机会没了。太恶心了

07-14

$奈飞(NFLX)$ 支棱起来啊

07-13

有ark女巫接盘

异动解读｜SpaceX跌超5%，解禁压力与估值分歧持续压制股价再创上市新低

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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class=\"title\">\n段永平：10年内大概率不会卖泡泡玛特股票，拟卖出SpaceX、特斯拉、Palantir的Put\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-23 16:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">段永平在社交平台上表示，“泡泡玛特我才刚开始买啊！我猜10年内大概率是不会卖的。不过，我的水果已经比较成熟了，刚刚被call走了一些（买了t-bill了）。虽然现在价格比call走的价格还要低一点点，但这个价位我并不是很想买入。前几天我已经卖了一些MU的put，这几天我会卖点space X， 特斯拉的put的，还有pltr也会卖点put。ai是不容被忽视的，努力理解中……。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他还表示，“我想我还会增加一些Google，有机会还想增加一些brkb. 我应该还会保持我的nvda体量，就是put到期后会继续卖put的意思。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0114ffea6e5c658e5521d4fd5cc4901\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1316\" tg-height=\"688\"/><span></span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/885447e000f5e02536cd166eeda13f45","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175654851","content_text":"段永平在社交平台上表示，“泡泡玛特我才刚开始买啊！我猜10年内大概率是不会卖的。不过，我的水果已经比较成熟了，刚刚被call走了一些（买了t-bill了）。虽然现在价格比call走的价格还要低一点点，但这个价位我并不是很想买入。前几天我已经卖了一些MU的put，这几天我会卖点space X， 特斯拉的put的，还有pltr也会卖点put。ai是不容被忽视的，努力理解中……。”他还表示，“我想我还会增加一些Google，有机会还想增加一些brkb. 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22:59","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"美股异动 | SpaceX跌逾2%，木头姐逆势大手笔加仓","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2652211017","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，周一，SpaceX跌逾2%，报121.13美元，截至发稿，本月累计跌幅近30%。据悉，公司面临内部人士限售期延长带来的潜在抛压。未来数月，部分限售股份将分批进入市场，可能增加股票供应并进一步影响估值。值得注意i的是，知名投资人凯茜·伍德旗下ARK Invest披露7月13日至17日完整调仓记录，SpaceX成为当周头号增持标的，ARK合计投入5690万美元加仓SPCX，为本期规模最大单笔布局。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">智通财经APP获悉，周一，SpaceX(SPCX.US)跌逾2%，报121.13美元，截至发稿，本月累计跌幅近30%。据悉，公司面临内部人士限售期延长带来的潜在抛压。未来数月，部分限售股份将分批进入市场，可能增加股票供应并进一步影响估值。SiebertFinancial首席投资官MarkMalek表示，在考虑未来限售股解禁后，许多投资者可能已经重新审视最初的投资逻辑。此前在场外观望的潜在买家，则可能继续等待更低的入场点，因为随着估值回归合理水平，更低价格出现的可能性正在上升。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/faa7d88a7b70dcaa3c1c94edc2672ec7\" data-align=\"center\" data-image-type=\"kline\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意i的是，知名投资人凯茜·伍德(市场称“木头姐”)旗下ARK Invest披露7月13日至17日完整调仓记录，SpaceX成为当周头号增持标的，ARK合计投入5690万美元加仓SPCX，为本期规模最大单笔布局。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股异动 | SpaceX跌逾2%，木头姐逆势大手笔加仓</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股异动 | SpaceX跌逾2%，木头姐逆势大手笔加仓\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-20 22:59 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1470064.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，周一，SpaceX(SPCX.US)跌逾2%，报121.13美元，截至发稿，本月累计跌幅近30%。据悉，公司面临内部人士限售期延长带来的潜在抛压。未来数月，部分限售股份将分批进入市场，可能增加股票供应并进一步影响估值。SiebertFinancial首席投资官MarkMalek表示，在考虑未来限售股解禁后，许多投资者可能已经重新审视最初的投资逻辑。此前在场外观望的潜在买家，则...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1470064.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/204deea95548090ff5aad7c01fcebb6f","relate_stocks":{"BRRR":"比特币ETF-CoinShares","SPAL":"2倍做多Space X ETF-GraniteShares","BTCL":"T-REX 2X LONG BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF","SPCF":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-ProShares","BITX":"2倍比特币期货ETF-Volatility Shares","XOVR":"ERShares 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a> 涨得太过分了，还做头把交椅。只有你回撤15%-20%，其他股票才能有流动性，毕竟市场总的筹码就那么多","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a> 涨得太过分了，还做头把交椅。只有你回撤15%-20%，其他股票才能有流动性，毕竟市场总的筹码就那么多","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 涨得太过分了，还做头把交椅。只有你回撤15%-20%，其他股票才能有流动性，毕竟市场总的筹码就那么多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/587907693744288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":586832259695656,"gmtCreate":1784301031161,"gmtModify":1784301033283,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3540680319507322","idStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOXL\">$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$&nbsp;</a> 拜托，别挣扎了，跌到100好加仓","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOXL\">$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$&nbsp;</a> 拜托，别挣扎了，跌到100好加仓","text":"$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ 拜托，别挣扎了，跌到100好加仓","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/586832259695656","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3559770134796747","authorId":"3559770134796747","name":"牛逼的泡泡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bf6916652a79d7028c26078fd497da4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3559770134796747","idStr":"3559770134796747"},"content":"到100就加仓，轮得到你吗。我130加的","text":"到100就加仓，轮得到你吗。我130加的","html":"到100就加仓，轮得到你吗。我130加的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":586683162759488,"gmtCreate":1784264620870,"gmtModify":1784264622798,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3540680319507322","idStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"35%好吧。你这数学是体育老师教的吗","listText":"35%好吧。你这数学是体育老师教的吗","text":"35%好吧。你这数学是体育老师教的吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/586683162759488","repostId":"1104766888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104766888","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1784255829,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104766888?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-17 10:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美光较6月高点回落30%，华尔街重估AI存储周期：估值、盈利峰值与价格拐点成焦点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104766888","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美光科技过去一年受益于AI存储需求和DRAM、NAND价格上涨，但近期股价已较6月22日高点回落约30%，并首次跌破50日均线。Trivariate Research将美光称为“市场最重要的股票”，认为其已成为AI周期和风险偏好的代理变量，并测算其峰值每股收益或高于市场预期。不过，市场对存储价格拐点的担忧仍在升温，美光周四跌超5%，闪迪重挫逾12%，费城半导体指数跌超4%。Evercore ISI则认为，DRAM和NAND供应约束可能在今年底进一步恶化，并持续到明年大部分时间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>过去一年是AI存储行情的核心标的之一，但这只股票近期的走势开始让市场重新审视存储周期的位置。Trivariate Research在最新报告中将美光称为“市场最重要的股票”，理由是它已经成为AI周期和风险偏好的重要代理变量。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美光是美国少数直接参与AI存储供应链的核心厂商，受益于DRAM、NAND和高带宽内存需求上升，过去几个季度价格上涨带动盈利大幅改善。但问题也随之出现：当股价涨幅足够大之后，市场开始担心存储芯片价格何时见顶。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美光股价目前已较6月22日高点回落约30%，周三收盘跌破50日均线，为4月7日以来首次。对一只此前高度依赖动量交易的芯片股来说，这个信号并不轻。过去几周，美股市场已经失去存储股和部分高位芯片股的带动，费城半导体指数也明显承压。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Trivariate Research认为，美光当前估值并不算高。该机构指出，在报告发布时，美光股价仍高于900美元，对应正常化每股收益不到11倍；而在股价跌破850美元后，估值倍数进一步下降。对于一家处在AI供应链关键位置的美国存储芯片公司来说，这一估值水平偏低。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">为了判断美光未来盈利能力，Trivariate对AI周期见顶及后续下行阶段做了1万种情景模拟。即便在存储周期重新回到商品化交易、且下行速度比历史周期慢一倍的假设下，该机构仍测算美光峰值每股收益可达194美元，熊市情景下为156美元。相比之下，市场一致预期约为178美元，Trivariate认为这一预期可能低估了美光盈利峰值。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但偏乐观的测算没有挡住股价下跌，美东时间周四，美光下跌5.65%，同属NAND存储方向的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a>重挫逾12%，费城半导体指数下跌4.3%。自6月22日创下14634.72点历史高位以来，费城半导体指数30只成分股全部回落，其中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">迈威尔科技</a>跌幅达到36%，表现最弱。截至周四，SOX成分股中仅13.3%仍位于50日均线上方。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e655cc8f3c731ec2be799821b693fab7\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"248\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">近期压在美光股价上的另一个因素，是市场对存储价格拐点的担忧。有报道称，AI新云厂商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave, Inc.</a>正考虑使用金融衍生品，对冲未来内存和存储芯片价格下跌风险。Evercore ISI分析师Amit Daryanani认为，投资者可能将这一消息解读为存储价格接近顶部的信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，Daryanani并不认为供需紧张会很快缓解。他在报告中提到，基于供应链调查和原始设备制造商反馈，DRAM和NAND的供应约束可能在今年底进一步恶化，并持续到明年大部分时间。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美光较6月高点回落30%，华尔街重估AI存储周期：估值、盈利峰值与价格拐点成焦点</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美光较6月高点回落30%，华尔街重估AI存储周期：估值、盈利峰值与价格拐点成焦点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-17 10:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>过去一年是AI存储行情的核心标的之一，但这只股票近期的走势开始让市场重新审视存储周期的位置。Trivariate Research在最新报告中将美光称为“市场最重要的股票”，理由是它已经成为AI周期和风险偏好的重要代理变量。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美光是美国少数直接参与AI存储供应链的核心厂商，受益于DRAM、NAND和高带宽内存需求上升，过去几个季度价格上涨带动盈利大幅改善。但问题也随之出现：当股价涨幅足够大之后，市场开始担心存储芯片价格何时见顶。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美光股价目前已较6月22日高点回落约30%，周三收盘跌破50日均线，为4月7日以来首次。对一只此前高度依赖动量交易的芯片股来说，这个信号并不轻。过去几周，美股市场已经失去存储股和部分高位芯片股的带动，费城半导体指数也明显承压。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Trivariate Research认为，美光当前估值并不算高。该机构指出，在报告发布时，美光股价仍高于900美元，对应正常化每股收益不到11倍；而在股价跌破850美元后，估值倍数进一步下降。对于一家处在AI供应链关键位置的美国存储芯片公司来说，这一估值水平偏低。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">为了判断美光未来盈利能力，Trivariate对AI周期见顶及后续下行阶段做了1万种情景模拟。即便在存储周期重新回到商品化交易、且下行速度比历史周期慢一倍的假设下，该机构仍测算美光峰值每股收益可达194美元，熊市情景下为156美元。相比之下，市场一致预期约为178美元，Trivariate认为这一预期可能低估了美光盈利峰值。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但偏乐观的测算没有挡住股价下跌，美东时间周四，美光下跌5.65%，同属NAND存储方向的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a>重挫逾12%，费城半导体指数下跌4.3%。自6月22日创下14634.72点历史高位以来，费城半导体指数30只成分股全部回落，其中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">迈威尔科技</a>跌幅达到36%，表现最弱。截至周四，SOX成分股中仅13.3%仍位于50日均线上方。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e655cc8f3c731ec2be799821b693fab7\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"248\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">近期压在美光股价上的另一个因素，是市场对存储价格拐点的担忧。有报道称，AI新云厂商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave, Inc.</a>正考虑使用金融衍生品，对冲未来内存和存储芯片价格下跌风险。Evercore ISI分析师Amit Daryanani认为，投资者可能将这一消息解读为存储价格接近顶部的信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，Daryanani并不认为供需紧张会很快缓解。他在报告中提到，基于供应链调查和原始设备制造商反馈，DRAM和NAND的供应约束可能在今年底进一步恶化，并持续到明年大部分时间。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97dc49a1c38f37d8c33d7241fccf9976","relate_stocks":{"MUU":"2倍做多MU ETF-Direxion","SNDG":"Leverage Shares 2X Long SNDK Daily ETF","MU":"美光科技","SNDQ":"Tradr 2X 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Research在最新报告中将美光称为“市场最重要的股票”，理由是它已经成为AI周期和风险偏好的重要代理变量。美光是美国少数直接参与AI存储供应链的核心厂商，受益于DRAM、NAND和高带宽内存需求上升，过去几个季度价格上涨带动盈利大幅改善。但问题也随之出现：当股价涨幅足够大之后，市场开始担心存储芯片价格何时见顶。美光股价目前已较6月22日高点回落约30%，周三收盘跌破50日均线，为4月7日以来首次。对一只此前高度依赖动量交易的芯片股来说，这个信号并不轻。过去几周，美股市场已经失去存储股和部分高位芯片股的带动，费城半导体指数也明显承压。Trivariate Research认为，美光当前估值并不算高。该机构指出，在报告发布时，美光股价仍高于900美元，对应正常化每股收益不到11倍；而在股价跌破850美元后，估值倍数进一步下降。对于一家处在AI供应链关键位置的美国存储芯片公司来说，这一估值水平偏低。为了判断美光未来盈利能力，Trivariate对AI周期见顶及后续下行阶段做了1万种情景模拟。即便在存储周期重新回到商品化交易、且下行速度比历史周期慢一倍的假设下，该机构仍测算美光峰值每股收益可达194美元，熊市情景下为156美元。相比之下，市场一致预期约为178美元，Trivariate认为这一预期可能低估了美光盈利峰值。但偏乐观的测算没有挡住股价下跌，美东时间周四，美光下跌5.65%，同属NAND存储方向的闪迪重挫逾12%，费城半导体指数下跌4.3%。自6月22日创下14634.72点历史高位以来，费城半导体指数30只成分股全部回落，其中迈威尔科技跌幅达到36%，表现最弱。截至周四，SOX成分股中仅13.3%仍位于50日均线上方。近期压在美光股价上的另一个因素，是市场对存储价格拐点的担忧。有报道称，AI新云厂商CoreWeave, Inc.正考虑使用金融衍生品，对冲未来内存和存储芯片价格下跌风险。Evercore ISI分析师Amit 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今天晚上跌10个点不过分。毕竟你也一年难得大跌一次","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/586413132562752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":586394769286056,"gmtCreate":1784194220804,"gmtModify":1784194222671,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3540680319507322","idStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"一会儿看会不会打脸","listText":"一会儿看会不会打脸","text":"一会儿看会不会打脸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/586394769286056","repostId":"2651418174","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2651418174","kind":"live","pubTimestamp":1784173952,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2651418174?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-16 11:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"派杰投资：将联合健康的目标价从420美元上调至475美元。","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2651418174","media":"智通财经","summary":"派杰投资：将联合健康的目标价从420美元上调至475美元。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<div>\r\n                  派杰投资：将联合健康的目标价从420美元上调至475美元。                </div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"live_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>派杰投资：将联合健康的目标价从420美元上调至475美元。</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n派杰投资：将联合健康的目标价从420美元上调至475美元。\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-16 11:52 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=usstock><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>派杰投资：将联合健康的目标价从420美元上调至475美元。</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=usstock\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2362541273.HKD":"WELLINGTON NEXT GENERATION GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0496365809.HKD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC (Q)","LU1037948897.HKD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0052756011.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2244417387.USD":"FIDELITY SUSTAINABLE US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4154":"管理型保健护理","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0965508806.USD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2362541513.USD":"WELLINGTON NEXT GENERATION GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1934455277.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY 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20:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"华尔街集体看多：ASML产能激增，内存“见顶论”可以休矣！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161609159","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"华尔街集体看多，认为AI需求将持续推升EUV设备和HBM投资，2028年盈利预期上修，内存“见顶论”遭到有力反驳。华尔街主要投行随即集体发声，高盛、摩根大通、巴克莱等机构一致维持或重申买入评级，认为此次业绩彻底验证了AI供应瓶颈论，并对内存价格\"2028年见顶\"的看空叙事构成有力反驳。业绩全面超预期，三季度指引更令市场惊喜ASML二季度各项核心财务指标均超出市场预期。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>ASML二季度业绩和全年指引双双超预期，并首次公布2027-2028年大规模扩产计划。华尔街集体看多，认为AI需求将持续推升EUV设备和HBM投资，2028年盈利预期上修，内存“见顶论”遭到有力反驳。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">ASML交出一份远超预期的二季度成绩单，并大幅上调全年指引，同时罕见地给出2027至2028年产能扩张路线图，直接回应了市场对AI驱动需求能否持续的核心疑虑。华尔街主要投行随即集体发声，高盛、摩根大通、巴克莱等机构一致维持或重申买入评级，<strong>认为此次业绩彻底验证了AI供应瓶颈论，并对内存价格&#34;2028年见顶&#34;的看空叙事构成有力反驳。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">ASML二季度营收93亿欧元，超彭博市场共识89亿欧元，毛利率54%大幅领先51%-52%的指引区间。公司随即将2026年全年营收指引从360亿至400亿欧元上调至430亿至450亿欧元，中位数较市场共识高出约11%；全年毛利率指引亦上调至54%-56%。更关键的是，管理层明确表示将在2027年和2028年分别扩大约30%的低数值孔径EUV及浸没式DUV产能，这一表态直接触发市场对2028年盈利预期的大幅上修。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">消息公布后，ASML阿姆斯特丹股价上涨约4%，纳斯达克100指数期货同步上涨约40个基点。SK Hynix首尔上市股票单日飙升8.8%，补涨此前其美国存托凭证27%的涨幅。高盛维持买入评级，12个月目标价2000欧元，较当前股价隐含约29%上行空间；摩根大通同样维持增持，目标价1900欧元。</p><h2 id=\"id_4190257000\" style=\"text-align: left;\">业绩全面超预期，三季度指引更令市场惊喜</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">ASML二季度各项核心财务指标均超出市场预期。据高盛研报，二季度营收93.27亿欧元，较市场共识高出6%；息税前利润34.56亿欧元，超出共识13%；每股收益7.58欧元，超出共识约11%。毛利率54%不仅远超指引上限，亦较市场共识高出约230个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三季度指引同样大幅超出预期。公司预计三季度营收110亿至120亿欧元，中位数较市场共识高约11%；毛利率指引55%-57%，意味着三季度息税前利润将较市场共识高出约26%。据摩根大通研报，三季度营收中位数115亿欧元较共识高12%，毛利率中位数56%较共识高350个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根大通分析师Sandeep Deshpande指出，此次业绩超预期部分由已安装基础管理（IBM）业务驱动，该业务收入较预期高出约3亿欧元，软件主导的生产力升级及EUV服务安装基础的持续扩大，预计将推动该业务今年实现逾30%的增长，为毛利率提供额外支撑。</p><h2 id=\"id_2229617025\" style=\"text-align: left;\">产能扩张路线图超出买方预期，2028年盈利潜力大幅重估</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次业绩最受市场关注的，是管理层对2027至2028年产能扩张的明确表态。ASML表示，将在2026年约65台低数值孔径EUV产能基础上，于2027年扩产约30%至约85台，并正在研究2028年再扩产30%至约110台。与此同时，DUV浸没式产能亦将从2026年约130台扩至2027年约169台，2028年进一步扩至约220台。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据高盛测算，上述产能规划意味着2027/2028年低数值孔径EUV出货量将达85/110台，远超市场共识的85/89台；浸没式DUV出货量将达169/220台，同样大幅超出共识的137/146台。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根大通指出，2028年产能指引已超出该行此前作为卖方最高预测的水平。据粗略测算，若上述产能规划落地，ASML 2028年每股收益将超过65欧元，叠加已安装基础管理业务的强劲势头，实际盈利或更高。高盛交易台评论亦指出，2028年约110台的EUV产能目标已落入&#34;超级乐观区间&#34;（110至120台），远超卖方约89台的共识预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛表示，ASML已基本锁定2027年所需的大部分EUV订单，并已收到相当数量的2028年订单，管理层将订单接收情况描述为&#34;极为强劲&#34;。</p><h2 id=\"id_3495444165\" style=\"text-align: left;\">AI需求加速，逻辑与内存双线扩张</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">管理层明确表示，AI驱动的需求在逻辑芯片和内存两大领域持续强化，支撑客户在先进制程节点进一步扩产。在先进逻辑领域，ASML指出客户正同步在5/4/3纳米节点增加产能以满足AI需求，同时尽可能激进地推进2纳米量产，并开始为1.4纳米制程过渡做准备。公司预计2026年先进逻辑营收同比增长约25%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">内存方面，ASML表示DDR和HBM供应偏紧正推动客户加速投资，EUV及先进浸没式光刻强度的提升进一步拉动设备需求。公司预计2026年内存营收同比增长约75%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛交易台评论指出，随着内存市场向HBM4/HBM5及传统服务器DRAM所需的先进1c/1d纳米节点过渡，内存制造正经历根本性的范式转变。1c DRAM的EUV层数已增至五层以上，而1d和0a代计划在所有层中全面采用EUV技术。深紫外光多次图形化工艺已触及物理极限，ASML因此成为这一结构性转型的主要受益者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛进一步指出，HBM所需的晶圆强度远高于传统DRAM，这种双重扩张正严重挤压全球晶圆厂产能，推动内存价格在更长时间内保持高位。鉴于向先进节点过渡的结构性复杂性，那些预测内存价格将在2028年前见顶或供应缺口将显著缓解的看空论点&#34;听起来为时过早&#34;。</p><h2 id=\"id_2355122482\" style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街集体背书，分歧仅在于2027年指引是否足够激进</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">多家主要投行在业绩发布后迅速发表正面评价，但对2027年EUV产能指引的解读存在细微分歧。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱分析师Simon Coles表示，ASML给出了投资者所期待的大部分内容，2027和2028年低数值孔径EUV产能指引应能减少市场对公司是否受供应约束的争议，并指出上半年低数值孔径EUV订单金额可能高达220亿欧元，达到历史纪录水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根大通的Sandeep Deshpande认为，尽管公司未能在2027年达到90台EUV产能，但&#34;我们认为这无关紧要&#34;，因为2028年EUV及DUV产能指引远超预期，且2026年营收增速约35%已超出当前市场对晶圆厂设备行业整体增速的预期，公司实际上已在引导未来两年约30%的增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根士丹利分析师Lee Simpson则指出，尽管公司不再披露订单数据，但管理层表示上半年订单接收持续&#34;非常强劲&#34;，客户正寻求加速产能扩张，这预示着2027年销售势头强劲。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Jefferies分析师Janardan Menon持相对审慎立场，认为公司展望评论喜忧参半，已安装基础管理业务销售额及毛利率的强劲增长尤为积极，但2027年EUV指引低于近期大幅攀升的市场预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Oddo BHF则预计市场共识盈利预测将上调约20%，并表示&#34;ASML仍是无可匹敌的技术主导地位的故事，现在受益于AI驱动的根本不同的周期&#34;。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华尔街集体看多：ASML产能激增，内存“见顶论”可以休矣！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街集体看多：ASML产能激增，内存“见顶论”可以休矣！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-15 20:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>ASML二季度业绩和全年指引双双超预期，并首次公布2027-2028年大规模扩产计划。华尔街集体看多，认为AI需求将持续推升EUV设备和HBM投资，2028年盈利预期上修，内存“见顶论”遭到有力反驳。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">ASML交出一份远超预期的二季度成绩单，并大幅上调全年指引，同时罕见地给出2027至2028年产能扩张路线图，直接回应了市场对AI驱动需求能否持续的核心疑虑。华尔街主要投行随即集体发声，高盛、摩根大通、巴克莱等机构一致维持或重申买入评级，<strong>认为此次业绩彻底验证了AI供应瓶颈论，并对内存价格&#34;2028年见顶&#34;的看空叙事构成有力反驳。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">ASML二季度营收93亿欧元，超彭博市场共识89亿欧元，毛利率54%大幅领先51%-52%的指引区间。公司随即将2026年全年营收指引从360亿至400亿欧元上调至430亿至450亿欧元，中位数较市场共识高出约11%；全年毛利率指引亦上调至54%-56%。更关键的是，管理层明确表示将在2027年和2028年分别扩大约30%的低数值孔径EUV及浸没式DUV产能，这一表态直接触发市场对2028年盈利预期的大幅上修。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">消息公布后，ASML阿姆斯特丹股价上涨约4%，纳斯达克100指数期货同步上涨约40个基点。SK Hynix首尔上市股票单日飙升8.8%，补涨此前其美国存托凭证27%的涨幅。高盛维持买入评级，12个月目标价2000欧元，较当前股价隐含约29%上行空间；摩根大通同样维持增持，目标价1900欧元。</p><h2 id=\"id_4190257000\" style=\"text-align: left;\">业绩全面超预期，三季度指引更令市场惊喜</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">ASML二季度各项核心财务指标均超出市场预期。据高盛研报，二季度营收93.27亿欧元，较市场共识高出6%；息税前利润34.56亿欧元，超出共识13%；每股收益7.58欧元，超出共识约11%。毛利率54%不仅远超指引上限，亦较市场共识高出约230个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三季度指引同样大幅超出预期。公司预计三季度营收110亿至120亿欧元，中位数较市场共识高约11%；毛利率指引55%-57%，意味着三季度息税前利润将较市场共识高出约26%。据摩根大通研报，三季度营收中位数115亿欧元较共识高12%，毛利率中位数56%较共识高350个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根大通分析师Sandeep Deshpande指出，此次业绩超预期部分由已安装基础管理（IBM）业务驱动，该业务收入较预期高出约3亿欧元，软件主导的生产力升级及EUV服务安装基础的持续扩大，预计将推动该业务今年实现逾30%的增长，为毛利率提供额外支撑。</p><h2 id=\"id_2229617025\" style=\"text-align: left;\">产能扩张路线图超出买方预期，2028年盈利潜力大幅重估</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次业绩最受市场关注的，是管理层对2027至2028年产能扩张的明确表态。ASML表示，将在2026年约65台低数值孔径EUV产能基础上，于2027年扩产约30%至约85台，并正在研究2028年再扩产30%至约110台。与此同时，DUV浸没式产能亦将从2026年约130台扩至2027年约169台，2028年进一步扩至约220台。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据高盛测算，上述产能规划意味着2027/2028年低数值孔径EUV出货量将达85/110台，远超市场共识的85/89台；浸没式DUV出货量将达169/220台，同样大幅超出共识的137/146台。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根大通指出，2028年产能指引已超出该行此前作为卖方最高预测的水平。据粗略测算，若上述产能规划落地，ASML 2028年每股收益将超过65欧元，叠加已安装基础管理业务的强劲势头，实际盈利或更高。高盛交易台评论亦指出，2028年约110台的EUV产能目标已落入&#34;超级乐观区间&#34;（110至120台），远超卖方约89台的共识预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛表示，ASML已基本锁定2027年所需的大部分EUV订单，并已收到相当数量的2028年订单，管理层将订单接收情况描述为&#34;极为强劲&#34;。</p><h2 id=\"id_3495444165\" style=\"text-align: left;\">AI需求加速，逻辑与内存双线扩张</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">管理层明确表示，AI驱动的需求在逻辑芯片和内存两大领域持续强化，支撑客户在先进制程节点进一步扩产。在先进逻辑领域，ASML指出客户正同步在5/4/3纳米节点增加产能以满足AI需求，同时尽可能激进地推进2纳米量产，并开始为1.4纳米制程过渡做准备。公司预计2026年先进逻辑营收同比增长约25%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">内存方面，ASML表示DDR和HBM供应偏紧正推动客户加速投资，EUV及先进浸没式光刻强度的提升进一步拉动设备需求。公司预计2026年内存营收同比增长约75%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛交易台评论指出，随着内存市场向HBM4/HBM5及传统服务器DRAM所需的先进1c/1d纳米节点过渡，内存制造正经历根本性的范式转变。1c DRAM的EUV层数已增至五层以上，而1d和0a代计划在所有层中全面采用EUV技术。深紫外光多次图形化工艺已触及物理极限，ASML因此成为这一结构性转型的主要受益者。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛进一步指出，HBM所需的晶圆强度远高于传统DRAM，这种双重扩张正严重挤压全球晶圆厂产能，推动内存价格在更长时间内保持高位。鉴于向先进节点过渡的结构性复杂性，那些预测内存价格将在2028年前见顶或供应缺口将显著缓解的看空论点&#34;听起来为时过早&#34;。</p><h2 id=\"id_2355122482\" style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街集体背书，分歧仅在于2027年指引是否足够激进</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">多家主要投行在业绩发布后迅速发表正面评价，但对2027年EUV产能指引的解读存在细微分歧。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱分析师Simon Coles表示，ASML给出了投资者所期待的大部分内容，2027和2028年低数值孔径EUV产能指引应能减少市场对公司是否受供应约束的争议，并指出上半年低数值孔径EUV订单金额可能高达220亿欧元，达到历史纪录水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根大通的Sandeep Deshpande认为，尽管公司未能在2027年达到90台EUV产能，但&#34;我们认为这无关紧要&#34;，因为2028年EUV及DUV产能指引远超预期，且2026年营收增速约35%已超出当前市场对晶圆厂设备行业整体增速的预期，公司实际上已在引导未来两年约30%的增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根士丹利分析师Lee Simpson则指出，尽管公司不再披露订单数据，但管理层表示上半年订单接收持续&#34;非常强劲&#34;，客户正寻求加速产能扩张，这预示着2027年销售势头强劲。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Jefferies分析师Janardan Menon持相对审慎立场，认为公司展望评论喜忧参半，已安装基础管理业务销售额及毛利率的强劲增长尤为积极，但2027年EUV指引低于近期大幅攀升的市场预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Oddo BHF则预计市场共识盈利预测将上调约20%，并表示&#34;ASML仍是无可匹敌的技术主导地位的故事，现在受益于AI驱动的根本不同的周期&#34;。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9a5bf70230b34046657c91800556952","relate_stocks":{"ASMU":"Direxion Daily ASML Bull 2X ETF","ASML":"阿斯麦","ASMG":"2倍做多ASML ETF- Leverage Shares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161609159","content_text":"ASML二季度业绩和全年指引双双超预期，并首次公布2027-2028年大规模扩产计划。华尔街集体看多，认为AI需求将持续推升EUV设备和HBM投资，2028年盈利预期上修，内存“见顶论”遭到有力反驳。ASML交出一份远超预期的二季度成绩单，并大幅上调全年指引，同时罕见地给出2027至2028年产能扩张路线图，直接回应了市场对AI驱动需求能否持续的核心疑虑。华尔街主要投行随即集体发声，高盛、摩根大通、巴克莱等机构一致维持或重申买入评级，认为此次业绩彻底验证了AI供应瓶颈论，并对内存价格\"2028年见顶\"的看空叙事构成有力反驳。ASML二季度营收93亿欧元，超彭博市场共识89亿欧元，毛利率54%大幅领先51%-52%的指引区间。公司随即将2026年全年营收指引从360亿至400亿欧元上调至430亿至450亿欧元，中位数较市场共识高出约11%；全年毛利率指引亦上调至54%-56%。更关键的是，管理层明确表示将在2027年和2028年分别扩大约30%的低数值孔径EUV及浸没式DUV产能，这一表态直接触发市场对2028年盈利预期的大幅上修。消息公布后，ASML阿姆斯特丹股价上涨约4%，纳斯达克100指数期货同步上涨约40个基点。SK Hynix首尔上市股票单日飙升8.8%，补涨此前其美国存托凭证27%的涨幅。高盛维持买入评级，12个月目标价2000欧元，较当前股价隐含约29%上行空间；摩根大通同样维持增持，目标价1900欧元。业绩全面超预期，三季度指引更令市场惊喜ASML二季度各项核心财务指标均超出市场预期。据高盛研报，二季度营收93.27亿欧元，较市场共识高出6%；息税前利润34.56亿欧元，超出共识13%；每股收益7.58欧元，超出共识约11%。毛利率54%不仅远超指引上限，亦较市场共识高出约230个基点。三季度指引同样大幅超出预期。公司预计三季度营收110亿至120亿欧元，中位数较市场共识高约11%；毛利率指引55%-57%，意味着三季度息税前利润将较市场共识高出约26%。据摩根大通研报，三季度营收中位数115亿欧元较共识高12%，毛利率中位数56%较共识高350个基点。摩根大通分析师Sandeep Deshpande指出，此次业绩超预期部分由已安装基础管理（IBM）业务驱动，该业务收入较预期高出约3亿欧元，软件主导的生产力升级及EUV服务安装基础的持续扩大，预计将推动该业务今年实现逾30%的增长，为毛利率提供额外支撑。产能扩张路线图超出买方预期，2028年盈利潜力大幅重估此次业绩最受市场关注的，是管理层对2027至2028年产能扩张的明确表态。ASML表示，将在2026年约65台低数值孔径EUV产能基础上，于2027年扩产约30%至约85台，并正在研究2028年再扩产30%至约110台。与此同时，DUV浸没式产能亦将从2026年约130台扩至2027年约169台，2028年进一步扩至约220台。据高盛测算，上述产能规划意味着2027/2028年低数值孔径EUV出货量将达85/110台，远超市场共识的85/89台；浸没式DUV出货量将达169/220台，同样大幅超出共识的137/146台。摩根大通指出，2028年产能指引已超出该行此前作为卖方最高预测的水平。据粗略测算，若上述产能规划落地，ASML 2028年每股收益将超过65欧元，叠加已安装基础管理业务的强劲势头，实际盈利或更高。高盛交易台评论亦指出，2028年约110台的EUV产能目标已落入\"超级乐观区间\"（110至120台），远超卖方约89台的共识预期。高盛表示，ASML已基本锁定2027年所需的大部分EUV订单，并已收到相当数量的2028年订单，管理层将订单接收情况描述为\"极为强劲\"。AI需求加速，逻辑与内存双线扩张管理层明确表示，AI驱动的需求在逻辑芯片和内存两大领域持续强化，支撑客户在先进制程节点进一步扩产。在先进逻辑领域，ASML指出客户正同步在5/4/3纳米节点增加产能以满足AI需求，同时尽可能激进地推进2纳米量产，并开始为1.4纳米制程过渡做准备。公司预计2026年先进逻辑营收同比增长约25%。内存方面，ASML表示DDR和HBM供应偏紧正推动客户加速投资，EUV及先进浸没式光刻强度的提升进一步拉动设备需求。公司预计2026年内存营收同比增长约75%。高盛交易台评论指出，随着内存市场向HBM4/HBM5及传统服务器DRAM所需的先进1c/1d纳米节点过渡，内存制造正经历根本性的范式转变。1c DRAM的EUV层数已增至五层以上，而1d和0a代计划在所有层中全面采用EUV技术。深紫外光多次图形化工艺已触及物理极限，ASML因此成为这一结构性转型的主要受益者。高盛进一步指出，HBM所需的晶圆强度远高于传统DRAM，这种双重扩张正严重挤压全球晶圆厂产能，推动内存价格在更长时间内保持高位。鉴于向先进节点过渡的结构性复杂性，那些预测内存价格将在2028年前见顶或供应缺口将显著缓解的看空论点\"听起来为时过早\"。华尔街集体背书，分歧仅在于2027年指引是否足够激进多家主要投行在业绩发布后迅速发表正面评价，但对2027年EUV产能指引的解读存在细微分歧。巴克莱分析师Simon Coles表示，ASML给出了投资者所期待的大部分内容，2027和2028年低数值孔径EUV产能指引应能减少市场对公司是否受供应约束的争议，并指出上半年低数值孔径EUV订单金额可能高达220亿欧元，达到历史纪录水平。摩根大通的Sandeep Deshpande认为，尽管公司未能在2027年达到90台EUV产能，但\"我们认为这无关紧要\"，因为2028年EUV及DUV产能指引远超预期，且2026年营收增速约35%已超出当前市场对晶圆厂设备行业整体增速的预期，公司实际上已在引导未来两年约30%的增长。摩根士丹利分析师Lee Simpson则指出，尽管公司不再披露订单数据，但管理层表示上半年订单接收持续\"非常强劲\"，客户正寻求加速产能扩张，这预示着2027年销售势头强劲。Jefferies分析师Janardan Menon持相对审慎立场，认为公司展望评论喜忧参半，已安装基础管理业务销售额及毛利率的强劲增长尤为积极，但2027年EUV指引低于近期大幅攀升的市场预期。Oddo BHF则预计市场共识盈利预测将上调约20%，并表示\"ASML仍是无可匹敌的技术主导地位的故事，现在受益于AI驱动的根本不同的周期\"。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":2,"ASMG":0.6,"ASMU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":586079660229024,"gmtCreate":1784117283962,"gmtModify":1784117286206,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3540680319507322","idStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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吃相难看。如果不能大涨，那就开盘跌20%吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/586079660229024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3560995222377156","authorId":"3560995222377156","name":"Evannana","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3560995222377156","idStr":"3560995222377156"},"content":"这么好的财报居然不涨，果然资本家操控市场啊🙀","text":"这么好的财报居然不涨，果然资本家操控市场啊🙀","html":"这么好的财报居然不涨，果然资本家操控市场啊🙀"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":586029932834976,"gmtCreate":1784103812133,"gmtModify":1784103814069,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3540680319507322","idStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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莫名其妙","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/586010067681856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":585778136098080,"gmtCreate":1784043744257,"gmtModify":1784043746331,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3540680319507322","idStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$&nbsp;</a> 好猥琐的走势，不能争气吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$&nbsp;</a> 好猥琐的走势，不能争气吗","text":"$奈飞(NFLX)$ 好猥琐的走势，不能争气吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/585778136098080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":585746614257000,"gmtCreate":1784036050618,"gmtModify":1784036330312,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3540680319507322","idStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">$IBM(IBM)$&nbsp;</a> 提前跪下，不讲武德。本来说赌财报的末日期权大赚，结果机会没了。太恶心了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">$IBM(IBM)$&nbsp;</a> 提前跪下，不讲武德。本来说赌财报的末日期权大赚，结果机会没了。太恶心了","text":"$IBM(IBM)$ 提前跪下，不讲武德。本来说赌财报的末日期权大赚，结果机会没了。太恶心了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/585746614257000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4175415904200302","authorId":"4175415904200302","name":"EricGo","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4175415904200302","idStr":"4175415904200302"},"content":"初步财报就暴跌25个点，这么离谱","text":"初步财报就暴跌25个点，这么离谱","html":"初步财报就暴跌25个点，这么离谱"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":585666478331264,"gmtCreate":1784016487094,"gmtModify":1784016488861,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3540680319507322","idStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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支棱起来啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/585666478331264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":585404949587512,"gmtCreate":1783952642172,"gmtModify":1783952643909,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3540680319507322","idStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"有ark女巫接盘","listText":"有ark女巫接盘","text":"有ark女巫接盘","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/585404949587512","repostId":"1109561203","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109561203","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"行情直击","id":"1059448697","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51943b2858f75e05ca2ebb144b4e626a"},"pubTimestamp":1783951451,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109561203?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-13 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n异动解读｜SpaceX跌超5%，解禁压力与估值分歧持续压制股价再创上市新低\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1059448697\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/51943b2858f75e05ca2ebb144b4e626a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">行情直击 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-13 22:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月13日，SpaceX盘中跌超5%，报137.68美元，成交额超30亿美元，股价再度刷新上市以来新低，较6月16日历史高点225.64美元累计回落逾37%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db85fee4517bf4cddbe50387046a0dad\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">消息面上，该股持续承压主因包括：一是上市时实际可流通股比例不足5%，内部人士限售股份将在未来数周分批解禁，抛压预期显著；二是全股票收购Cursor导致现有股东持股被稀释约3.4%；三是华尔街估值分歧极端扩大，目标价从131美元到900美元不等，信用市场亦传递担忧信号，其2036年到期债券利差已升至1.57个百分点，远高于同评级电信债券约0.9个百分点的水平。尽管FAA已结束星舰第12次飞行异常调查、第13次试飞即将进行等利好释放，但未能扭转市场对高估值与持续亏损的谨慎情绪。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">（以上内容均基于市场公开消息，由程序或算法智能生成，仅作为股价异动提醒，不作为投资建议或交易依据。）</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f16a7a67d0d2e6f1e72c43b8fe10d226","relate_stocks":{"SPCX":"SPAC and New Issue ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109561203","content_text":"7月13日，SpaceX盘中跌超5%，报137.68美元，成交额超30亿美元，股价再度刷新上市以来新低，较6月16日历史高点225.64美元累计回落逾37%。消息面上，该股持续承压主因包括：一是上市时实际可流通股比例不足5%，内部人士限售股份将在未来数周分批解禁，抛压预期显著；二是全股票收购Cursor导致现有股东持股被稀释约3.4%；三是华尔街估值分歧极端扩大，目标价从131美元到900美元不等，信用市场亦传递担忧信号，其2036年到期债券利差已升至1.57个百分点，远高于同评级电信债券约0.9个百分点的水平。尽管FAA已结束星舰第12次飞行异常调查、第13次试飞即将进行等利好释放，但未能扭转市场对高估值与持续亏损的谨慎情绪。（以上内容均基于市场公开消息，由程序或算法智能生成，仅作为股价异动提醒，不作为投资建议或交易依据。）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCX":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":581533105156472,"gmtCreate":1783007285085,"gmtModify":1783007287327,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3540680319507322","idStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$&nbsp;</a> 撤了。跌到800再回来","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$&nbsp;</a> 撤了。跌到800再回来","text":"$美光科技(MU)$ 撤了。跌到800再回来","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/581533105156472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3568766995272852","authorId":"3568766995272852","name":"Yan 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16:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"段永平：10年内大概率不会卖泡泡玛特股票，拟卖出SpaceX、特斯拉、Palantir的Put","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175654851","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"段永平在社交平台上表示，“泡泡玛特我才刚开始买啊！我猜10年内大概率是不会卖的。不过，我的水果已经比较成熟了，刚刚被call走了一些（买了t-bill了）。虽然现在价格比call走的价格还要低一点点，但这个价位我并不是很想买入。前几天我已经卖了一些MU的put，这几天我会卖点space X， 特斯拉的put的，还有pltr也会卖点put。ai是不容被忽视的，努力理解中……。”他还表示，“我想我还会增加一些Google，有机会还想增加一些brkb. 我应该还会保持我的nvda体量，就是put到期后会继续卖put的意思。”","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">段永平在社交平台上表示，“泡泡玛特我才刚开始买啊！我猜10年内大概率是不会卖的。不过，我的水果已经比较成熟了，刚刚被call走了一些（买了t-bill了）。虽然现在价格比call走的价格还要低一点点，但这个价位我并不是很想买入。前几天我已经卖了一些MU的put，这几天我会卖点space X， 特斯拉的put的，还有pltr也会卖点put。ai是不容被忽视的，努力理解中……。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他还表示，“我想我还会增加一些Google，有机会还想增加一些brkb. 我应该还会保持我的nvda体量，就是put到期后会继续卖put的意思。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0114ffea6e5c658e5521d4fd5cc4901\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1316\" 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tg-height=\"688\"/><span></span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/885447e000f5e02536cd166eeda13f45","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175654851","content_text":"段永平在社交平台上表示，“泡泡玛特我才刚开始买啊！我猜10年内大概率是不会卖的。不过，我的水果已经比较成熟了，刚刚被call走了一些（买了t-bill了）。虽然现在价格比call走的价格还要低一点点，但这个价位我并不是很想买入。前几天我已经卖了一些MU的put，这几天我会卖点space X， 特斯拉的put的，还有pltr也会卖点put。ai是不容被忽视的，努力理解中……。”他还表示，“我想我还会增加一些Google，有机会还想增加一些brkb. 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注定没运气。昨晚买的put在收盘前一秒被卖了。遗憾错过几千美金的收益","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75bd1f4bd1ff313b814fe7391ba9b953","width":"3024","height":"4032"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/477064476172536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4207618703980852","authorId":"4207618703980852","name":"努力赚够一百万","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b56bd7d7bb2c1384947206ad4c40c3c4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4207618703980852","idStr":"4207618703980852"},"content":"我昨天这个跟甲骨文的看跌期权二选一选了甲骨文，结果甲骨文涨30%，这个跌21%，我都想哭了","text":"我昨天这个跟甲骨文的看跌期权二选一选了甲骨文，结果甲骨文涨30%，这个跌21%，我都想哭了","html":"我昨天这个跟甲骨文的看跌期权二选一选了甲骨文，结果甲骨文涨30%，这个跌21%，我都想哭了"},{"author":{"id":"3574609203076960","authorId":"3574609203076960","name":"目光之后","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2516d9fcad49f5c5a9d0f19b33ab3b62","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574609203076960","idStr":"3574609203076960"},"content":"你不挂单他能成交？","text":"你不挂单他能成交？","html":"你不挂单他能成交？"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":284573558706352,"gmtCreate":1710481741867,"gmtModify":1710499231801,"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"BenBina","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3540680319507322","idStr":"3540680319507322"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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