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一刀兄
2020-08-18
一套技术入门时的门槛是很高,但已经具有技术框架和主体内容之后,除了为完善内容的投资之外,还需要继续往里投什么钱?要投也是投到下一代框架和内容里。爹妈成天光搞研发,不搞生产,还能有你吗?挣了钱才能继续研究下一代的娃。
李斌向资本低头,蔚来能涨40倍?
一刀兄
2020-01-31
$蔚来(NIO)$
黑云翻墨未遮山,白雨跳珠乱入船。卷地风来忽吹散,望湖楼下水如天。
一刀兄
2020-01-30
$蔚来(NIO)$
不断验证我空的逻辑,继续空仓。
一刀兄
2020-01-25
$蔚来(NIO)$
作为铁粉,今晚清仓了。疫情严峻,全行业面临灾难性的境况,汽车销售受影响是情理之中了。
一刀兄
2020-01-16
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
特斯拉500多,还能走多远呢?真以为要去4000啊,哈哈哈!华尔街割韭菜现在都不用圆谎了吗?
一刀兄
2020-01-16
$蔚来(NIO)$
都别特么装大师,乖乖的看着。
一刀兄
2019-12-31
$蔚来(NIO)$
华尔街的唇彩也是不少的,呵呵。
一刀兄
2019-12-31
$蔚来(NIO)$
空头大多只剩尸体了,默哀。不过,我踏马是死多头!
一刀兄
2019-12-31
$蔚来(NIO)$
年末扶贫,蔚来黑除外。
一刀兄
2019-12-31
$蔚来(NIO)$
这么早就开始震仓了?呵呵。
一刀兄
2019-12-30
$蔚来(NIO)$
蔚来万岁!哈哈哈哈!
一刀兄
2019-12-03
$蔚来(NIO)$
蔚来几下**那些跪久了起不来的假洋鬼子。
一刀兄
2019-11-30
$蔚来(NIO)$
es6星空蓝版本发布。
一刀兄
2019-11-02
$蔚来(NIO)$
蔚来出货量稳步上升,十月销售量不出意外又将新高。蔚来黑的槽点越来越少。翻阅了一下,目前黑们在割喉断气之前也只能吐槽一下财务状况了。蔚来营销费用过大?蔚来可是把花在营销上的费用尽数花在研发和优待车主上,不知道何过之有?有的怕也只能是嫉妒和恨了。说到车商的营销费用,作为蔚来第一批创始版的忠实车主,同时也作为奔驰和宝马品牌十数年的资深车主,我来讲讲车主角度的解读。拿奔驰举例,奔驰每年的营销费用甚巨。单说我连年会参加的梅赛德斯杯高尔夫球赛这一项吧。每年的梅赛德斯杯,分中国东南西北区,参与车主数量极大。初赛一般选在各省球场举行,参赛费用奔驰全包。包括球场打球费用,统一的服装(Hugo Boss定制星徽帽子、比赛T恤),比赛能量包(当地定制),奖品若干。初赛过后会选择指定著名球场打区域决赛,机票、五星酒店、打球费用,服装(区域决赛又是一套全新衣服)等奔驰全包。
一刀兄
2019-09-26
$蔚来(NIO)$
虽然今天的电话会大家觉得没什么营养,但从跟车主群互动的小侧面可以观察到,李斌同学的心态其实一直是很健康稳定的。作为一个甘愿舍弃舒适区,从易车到易鑫,摩拜再到蔚来,从线上走到线下,从虚拟走到实业,20年的时间证明这样一个实干家带队的确是让人放心的。股价凄风苦雨,但作为蔚来的的长线投资者,没有关灯吃面的忧虑,因为还不差这些钱买米。
一刀兄
2019-09-16
$蔚来(NIO)$
又回到了每周欢乐的时光。
一刀兄
2019-09-11
$蔚来(NIO)$
看来蔚来这小论坛里面真有股盲。见过45度涨了不回调的K线?哪有这事儿我也来两块钱的,哈哈哈!
一刀兄
2019-09-11
$蔚来(NIO)$
上升通道打开。
一刀兄
2019-09-11
$苹果(AAPL)$
关键是新iPhone咋样,现阶段这些软件都还是虚的,终端设备数量的增长才是苹果软体服务的保证。
一刀兄
2019-09-11
如果今晚站上并收在近期8月21号3.27价格之上的话,算是一个小的平台突破了。总体走得很不错。
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>走在后面这条路上,它向资本市场低头了。</b></p><p>如果一家企业向资本市场投降,向股东投降,最显著的观察点是减少了策略性成本。所谓策略性可变成本,即直接涉及并提高长期业绩表现的成本,最典型的莫过于<b>研发投入</b>。</p><p><b>前两天看到有个魔怔投资者说,蔚来要涨40倍。</b>呵呵,从来没听说处于追赶段位的公司,研发投入不跟上,股价还能涨40倍的。</p><p>话说回来,之所以短期利益变得更加重要,也许是因为李斌真的穷怕了。困难重重之下终于拿到融资,但这并不简单,也不是毫无条件的。安徽这70亿元的战略投资有严苛的对赌协议,如果完不成,蔚来得以8.5%的年复合增长率回购其股份。</p><p><i><b>01、</b></i><b>“投降”趋势</b></p><p>蔚来在研发投入上的态度,从数字上来看一览无余。总结下来是:</p><ul><li><p><b>没钱砍研发。</b>2019年下半年,蔚来融资不利,现金流紧张开始。蔚来的研发费用从那时开始同比大幅下降,2019Q3,同比+0%;2019Q4,同比-33%;2020Q1,同比-52%。</p></li></ul><ul><li><p><b>有钱砍研发。</b>2020年4月得到安徽70亿元投资,以及六家银行百亿授信,2020Q2,同比-58%。</p></li></ul><ul><li><p><b>有钱没钱砍研发。</b>8月11日的电话会里,蔚来管理层对研发投入的描述是这样的,“保证每年研发投入在30亿元以内,我们会围绕下一代自动驾驶技术进行研发,大约5-6亿元/季度的投入,每个季度的投入将根据车型开发进度进行调整。”预算大致固定了。</p></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf869884d2cb671b913e63058da55b8c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"598\"></p><p>▲图1:蔚来研发费用。来源:公司财报,锦缎。</p><p><b>预感有人会拿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>出来说事,这里提前堵住反对票的嘴。</b></p><p>现在的特斯拉,从单季度营收来看,当前的蔚来(Q2收入37.2亿元)大致和2013年Q1的特斯拉相当,后者2013年Q1收入5.6亿元(按当时6.28的汇率,折合人民币35.3亿元)。</p><p>特斯拉在蔚来这个收入量级(单个季度三四十亿元)的2013年,四个季度研发费用分别同比下降:-19%,-31%,-10%,-1%。老大哥特斯拉研发费用都可以下降为什么蔚来不可以?</p><p>蔚来当然不可以,橘生淮南淮北可甜可苦,我们具体问题具体分析:</p><p>当时特斯拉环比收入陷入停滞,四个季度营收分别是5.6亿美元、4.1亿美元、4.3亿美元和6.15亿美元,经营的不确定很大。这个时期,研发费用下降无可厚非,下降也没蔚来往腰斩去这么恐怖。而蔚来呢,交付量节节攀升:</p><ul><li><p>2019年Q4交付量为8224辆,平均89.4辆/天;</p></li><li><p>中间2020年Q1新冠病毒挖了个小坑但并不影响向上的趋势;</p></li><li><p>2020年Q2交付量为10331辆,平均113.5辆/天;</p></li><li><p>2020年Q3可能也会不错,因为除了ES6和ES8,EC6九月份也要开始交付了。</p></li></ul><p>交付量上去了,营收上去了,研发费用却大幅降低,情况就是这么个情况,这是与特斯拉营收大致相同阶段的不同之处。<b>这是对资本市场盈利压力之下的一种妥协,一种投降。</b></p><p>投降于资本市场的蔚来,对于用户来说,未来趋势是“实惠变少奇幻变多”。</p><p><i><b>02、</b></i><b>实惠减少</b></p><p>二季度,蔚来迎来里程碑时刻:毛利率转正且可持续(预计Q3和Q4能维持正毛利)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1608af6bd25c3ef5316a9447a3330da7\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"471\"></p><p>▲图2:蔚来毛利率变化图。来源:公司财报,锦缎。</p><p>这对股东来说是好事,这对用户来说就不一定了。蔚来解释它提高毛利率的武器有两个:</p><p><b>第一, 规模效应。</b></p><p>这个大家都懂,规模大了,工人更熟练,学习曲线上去了,浪费减少,毛利率自然提高。</p><p>但是,咱回头来看看,规模确实提高了,今年Q2比去年Q4交付量多了2107辆,这会对生产效率产生极大改善吗?改善足矣大到里外里17.3%的差距吗(去年Q4毛利率为-8.9%)?如果是这样,月交付量到了5000辆毛利率得有多高?</p><p>所以我们认为,这次毛利率转正过程中,规模效应不是主要的原因。</p><p><b>第二,节省BOM。</b></p><p>BOM即Bill of Material,物料。蔚来管理层在电话会上说,“Q3和Q4我们会维持毛利率,我们预测我们仍然有一些进步的空间,例如通过节省BOM等方式,10%是可以实现的,但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现。我们可以看到毛利率有提升空间,从各方面来说都有改善机会,但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事。”</p><p>过去,蔚来的ES8/ES6造的很卖力,为了用户不惜用料,你很难听到有车评人士说“蔚来有座椅特别硬这样的硬伤”——这是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>(NASDAQ:LI)被喷的很多的问题,也是外界认为理想在很低的销量之下毛利率为正的原因。</p><p>而现在,蔚来节省BOM换取毛利率。虽然管理层也知道节制,表示,“但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现……但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事……”但终究,实惠减少了。</p><p><i><b>03、</b></i><b>魔幻蔚来</b></p><p>研发费用变少,实惠可能也会逐步变少,那蔚来要拿什么来俘获用户的芳心,又要向还没入场的资本市场投资者讲出什么样的故事呢?</p><p>答案是:AI的故事,无人驾驶的故事。</p><p>2020年8月14日,媒体消息:任少卿加盟蔚来,担任“助理副总裁”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144993b8bdf14aed2338ac07690fb403\" tg-width=\"365\" tg-height=\"645\"></p><p>▲图3:任少卿简历。</p><p>引用任少卿的学术圈地位的描述:</p><blockquote>“他是AI图像识别检测圈无人不晓的大神啊!Resnet 和 faster rcnn 是当下深度学习发展阶段的重要里程碑。Resnet不同于以往的网络,它试图拟合残差,训练速度快。目前也是各种深度学习应用的backbone;而 faster rcnn 是两阶段目标检测的sota技术,无敌的存在。而任少卿,基本是这俩深度学习算法相关顶级论文的参与作者。Faster rcnn,他是一作!”</blockquote><p>科技新能源车最酷炫的卖点,这简直是男人的Viagra。</p><p>蔚来有mobileye的芯片支撑算力,任少卿加盟支撑算法,再加上不断交付的车辆增强数据。活脱脱的“AI造车新势力”,L4自动驾驶的目标还会远吗?</p><p>在自动驾驶方面能走多远不知道,但这一点需要我们足够的警惕。因为“下周回国”的那个男人,早已砍掉了我们对科技的溢价。你看,Faraday Future偏向无人驾驶,高科技感十足的专利聚类包括:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8daed259f14788161671f442b507a74b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"589\"></p><p>▲图4:Faraday Future专利分类。来源:incopat</p><p>模式识别302件;导航数据203件;位置测量误差202件;集成驱动185件;门铰链173件。最终,Faraday Future尘归尘,土归土。<b>多年以后不确定能不能实现的梦想,不应该给予折现。</b></p><p>理智的看,自动驾驶商用化很难,技术上无法实现,法规上还未配套,可能5-10年以后情况会改观,但不是现在。</p><p><b>但这又有什么关系呢,反正能讲的故事变多了:故事——交付量——收入——估值——故事。</b></p><p>一种循环,永不落幕。</p>","source":"lsy1596593134739","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>李斌向资本低头,蔚来能涨40倍?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n李斌向资本低头,蔚来能涨40倍?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-18 10:14 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vsxEy0DxZth38vdLhJ9HGA><strong>锦缎</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>优秀的上市公司永远不向资本市场低头,在最大化利润表和最大化未来现金流之间,它们毫不犹豫的选择后者。最极限的代表是杰夫·贝索斯(Jeff Bezos),天不生杰夫·贝索斯,长期主义万古如长夜:1997年IPO时投资亚马逊,23年来2000倍回报,年化收益率39%。长期的选择带来长期的收益,企业状况会越来越好;短期的选择带来短期的收益,企业状况刚开始还可以,以后可能每况愈下。蔚来走在后面这条路上,它向...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vsxEy0DxZth38vdLhJ9HGA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3380231cb191ca9bea37a0c70765537d","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vsxEy0DxZth38vdLhJ9HGA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199767469","content_text":"优秀的上市公司永远不向资本市场低头,在最大化利润表和最大化未来现金流之间,它们毫不犹豫的选择后者。最极限的代表是杰夫·贝索斯(Jeff Bezos),天不生杰夫·贝索斯,长期主义万古如长夜:1997年IPO时投资亚马逊,23年来2000倍回报,年化收益率39%。长期的选择带来长期的收益,企业状况会越来越好;短期的选择带来短期的收益,企业状况刚开始还可以,以后可能每况愈下。蔚来走在后面这条路上,它向资本市场低头了。如果一家企业向资本市场投降,向股东投降,最显著的观察点是减少了策略性成本。所谓策略性可变成本,即直接涉及并提高长期业绩表现的成本,最典型的莫过于研发投入。前两天看到有个魔怔投资者说,蔚来要涨40倍。呵呵,从来没听说处于追赶段位的公司,研发投入不跟上,股价还能涨40倍的。话说回来,之所以短期利益变得更加重要,也许是因为李斌真的穷怕了。困难重重之下终于拿到融资,但这并不简单,也不是毫无条件的。安徽这70亿元的战略投资有严苛的对赌协议,如果完不成,蔚来得以8.5%的年复合增长率回购其股份。01、“投降”趋势蔚来在研发投入上的态度,从数字上来看一览无余。总结下来是:没钱砍研发。2019年下半年,蔚来融资不利,现金流紧张开始。蔚来的研发费用从那时开始同比大幅下降,2019Q3,同比+0%;2019Q4,同比-33%;2020Q1,同比-52%。有钱砍研发。2020年4月得到安徽70亿元投资,以及六家银行百亿授信,2020Q2,同比-58%。有钱没钱砍研发。8月11日的电话会里,蔚来管理层对研发投入的描述是这样的,“保证每年研发投入在30亿元以内,我们会围绕下一代自动驾驶技术进行研发,大约5-6亿元/季度的投入,每个季度的投入将根据车型开发进度进行调整。”预算大致固定了。▲图1:蔚来研发费用。来源:公司财报,锦缎。预感有人会拿特斯拉出来说事,这里提前堵住反对票的嘴。现在的特斯拉,从单季度营收来看,当前的蔚来(Q2收入37.2亿元)大致和2013年Q1的特斯拉相当,后者2013年Q1收入5.6亿元(按当时6.28的汇率,折合人民币35.3亿元)。特斯拉在蔚来这个收入量级(单个季度三四十亿元)的2013年,四个季度研发费用分别同比下降:-19%,-31%,-10%,-1%。老大哥特斯拉研发费用都可以下降为什么蔚来不可以?蔚来当然不可以,橘生淮南淮北可甜可苦,我们具体问题具体分析:当时特斯拉环比收入陷入停滞,四个季度营收分别是5.6亿美元、4.1亿美元、4.3亿美元和6.15亿美元,经营的不确定很大。这个时期,研发费用下降无可厚非,下降也没蔚来往腰斩去这么恐怖。而蔚来呢,交付量节节攀升:2019年Q4交付量为8224辆,平均89.4辆/天;中间2020年Q1新冠病毒挖了个小坑但并不影响向上的趋势;2020年Q2交付量为10331辆,平均113.5辆/天;2020年Q3可能也会不错,因为除了ES6和ES8,EC6九月份也要开始交付了。交付量上去了,营收上去了,研发费用却大幅降低,情况就是这么个情况,这是与特斯拉营收大致相同阶段的不同之处。这是对资本市场盈利压力之下的一种妥协,一种投降。投降于资本市场的蔚来,对于用户来说,未来趋势是“实惠变少奇幻变多”。02、实惠减少二季度,蔚来迎来里程碑时刻:毛利率转正且可持续(预计Q3和Q4能维持正毛利)。▲图2:蔚来毛利率变化图。来源:公司财报,锦缎。这对股东来说是好事,这对用户来说就不一定了。蔚来解释它提高毛利率的武器有两个:第一, 规模效应。这个大家都懂,规模大了,工人更熟练,学习曲线上去了,浪费减少,毛利率自然提高。但是,咱回头来看看,规模确实提高了,今年Q2比去年Q4交付量多了2107辆,这会对生产效率产生极大改善吗?改善足矣大到里外里17.3%的差距吗(去年Q4毛利率为-8.9%)?如果是这样,月交付量到了5000辆毛利率得有多高?所以我们认为,这次毛利率转正过程中,规模效应不是主要的原因。第二,节省BOM。BOM即Bill of Material,物料。蔚来管理层在电话会上说,“Q3和Q4我们会维持毛利率,我们预测我们仍然有一些进步的空间,例如通过节省BOM等方式,10%是可以实现的,但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现。我们可以看到毛利率有提升空间,从各方面来说都有改善机会,但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事。”过去,蔚来的ES8/ES6造的很卖力,为了用户不惜用料,你很难听到有车评人士说“蔚来有座椅特别硬这样的硬伤”——这是理想汽车(NASDAQ:LI)被喷的很多的问题,也是外界认为理想在很低的销量之下毛利率为正的原因。而现在,蔚来节省BOM换取毛利率。虽然管理层也知道节制,表示,“但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现……但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事……”但终究,实惠减少了。03、魔幻蔚来研发费用变少,实惠可能也会逐步变少,那蔚来要拿什么来俘获用户的芳心,又要向还没入场的资本市场投资者讲出什么样的故事呢?答案是:AI的故事,无人驾驶的故事。2020年8月14日,媒体消息:任少卿加盟蔚来,担任“助理副总裁”。▲图3:任少卿简历。引用任少卿的学术圈地位的描述:“他是AI图像识别检测圈无人不晓的大神啊!Resnet 和 faster rcnn 是当下深度学习发展阶段的重要里程碑。Resnet不同于以往的网络,它试图拟合残差,训练速度快。目前也是各种深度学习应用的backbone;而 faster rcnn 是两阶段目标检测的sota技术,无敌的存在。而任少卿,基本是这俩深度学习算法相关顶级论文的参与作者。Faster rcnn,他是一作!”科技新能源车最酷炫的卖点,这简直是男人的Viagra。蔚来有mobileye的芯片支撑算力,任少卿加盟支撑算法,再加上不断交付的车辆增强数据。活脱脱的“AI造车新势力”,L4自动驾驶的目标还会远吗?在自动驾驶方面能走多远不知道,但这一点需要我们足够的警惕。因为“下周回国”的那个男人,早已砍掉了我们对科技的溢价。你看,Faraday Future偏向无人驾驶,高科技感十足的专利聚类包括:▲图4:Faraday Future专利分类。来源:incopat模式识别302件;导航数据203件;位置测量误差202件;集成驱动185件;门铰链173件。最终,Faraday Future尘归尘,土归土。多年以后不确定能不能实现的梦想,不应该给予折现。理智的看,自动驾驶商用化很难,技术上无法实现,法规上还未配套,可能5-10年以后情况会改观,但不是现在。但这又有什么关系呢,反正能讲的故事变多了:故事——交付量——收入——估值——故事。一种循环,永不落幕。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":912742851,"gmtCreate":1580473758073,"gmtModify":1704341656881,"author":{"id":"3498611698611050","authorId":"3498611698611050","name":"一刀兄","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c84c35eae7579eb4f734290b903d90","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3498611698611050","authorIdStr":"3498611698611050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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