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Vinsa8

Vinsa8

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IP属地：湖北

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03-24

$纳斯达克100指数(NDX)$ 搞了半天，伊朗赚了石油价格，以色列股市新高了，特老头多空双赚，how about CHINA？

03-24

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 以色列新高了，美国衰退了，好👌

03-24

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 以色列新高了，美国衰退了，好👌

03-24

把伊朗和以色列打的电全部打掉，战争就结束了，导弹都要发不出来了，还打毛

美股高开高走！纳斯达克指数涨幅扩大至2%；明星科技股持续拉升

03-24

$NQ100指数主连 2606(NQmain)$ 不管怎么样，老特只要出兵，把伊朗的电掐掉，战争就结束了吧

03-24

$英伟达(NVDA)$ W底了，起飞🛫

03-24

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 伊朗内部肯定有叛徒了，最后跟老特求饶，打不过就别撑

03-24

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 满仓南油LOF，石油才是血液

03-24

$纳斯达克100指数(NDX)$ 满仓南油LOF

03-23

为啥不反过来说，美股正是有了七巨头，才表现出大美丽强大的增长动力！

“七巨头”与标普500相关性罕见转负，科技股下跌中酝酿复苏契机？

03-23

$WTI原油主连 2605(CLmain)$ 别搞啊，我刚满仓南油LOF

03-23

$A50指数主连 2603(CNmain)$

03-23

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 这一波会把美国搞衰退吗

03-23

福特号已经撤了

伊朗冲突进入第四周：美股呈“倒U型”走势，仍未到最坏时刻

03-23

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

国际油价持续走强，WTI原油期货涨幅扩大至3%

03-23

$NQ100指数主连 2606(NQmain)$

03-23

$NQ100指数主连 2606(NQmain)$ 特朗普输了啊

03-19

$NQ100指数主连 2606(NQmain)$ 恭喜以色列，不费一兵一卒，股市新高了

03-19

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 美国成棋子了，以色列新高了

03-19

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 特靠谱被伊朗摩擦了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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以色列新高了，美国衰退了，好👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/545891489235832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":545889829209160,"gmtCreate":1774283248476,"gmtModify":1774285450898,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3486352703133754","idStr":"3486352703133754"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"把伊朗和以色列打的电全部打掉，战争就结束了，导弹都要发不出来了，还打毛","listText":"把伊朗和以色列打的电全部打掉，战争就结束了，导弹都要发不出来了，还打毛","text":"把伊朗和以色列打的电全部打掉，战争就结束了，导弹都要发不出来了，还打毛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/545889829209160","repostId":"1126161524","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1126161524","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1774274033,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126161524?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-23 21:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股高开高走！纳斯达克指数涨幅扩大至2%；明星科技股持续拉升","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126161524","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月23日，美股高开高走，纳斯达克指数涨幅扩大至2%；明星科技股持续拉升，$阿斯麦(ASML)$涨超5%，博通涨超4%，$特斯拉(TSLA)$、$亚马逊(AMZN)$涨超3%，$英伟达(NVDA)$、$AMD(AMD)$、$甲骨文(ORCL)$涨超2%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>3月23日，美股高开高走，纳斯达克指数涨幅扩大至2%；明星科技股持续拉升，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">阿斯麦</a>涨超5%，博通涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>涨超2%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe643e9b8615f6e55d525a23532ae53d\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股高开高走！纳斯达克指数涨幅扩大至2%；明星科技股持续拉升</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股高开高走！纳斯达克指数涨幅扩大至2%；明星科技股持续拉升\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-23 21:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>3月23日，美股高开高走，纳斯达克指数涨幅扩大至2%；明星科技股持续拉升，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">阿斯麦</a>涨超5%，博通涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>涨超2%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe643e9b8615f6e55d525a23532ae53d\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{"BK4593":"纳斯达克ETF","NVIW.SI":"NVDA 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满仓南油LOF","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/545884134973464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":545880639214232,"gmtCreate":1774281064296,"gmtModify":1774281335865,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3486352703133754","idStr":"3486352703133754"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"为啥不反过来说，美股正是有了七巨头，才表现出大美丽强大的增长动力！","listText":"为啥不反过来说，美股正是有了七巨头，才表现出大美丽强大的增长动力！","text":"为啥不反过来说，美股正是有了七巨头，才表现出大美丽强大的增长动力！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/545880639214232","repostId":"2621747844","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2621747844","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1774226659,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2621747844?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-23 08:44","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"“七巨头”与标普500相关性罕见转负，科技股下跌中酝酿复苏契机？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2621747844","media":"智通财经","summary":"追踪\"华丽七巨头\"的指数与标普500等权重指数之间的相关性，已于2月23日转为负值，表明两者走势不再同步。此后，随着伊朗战争扰乱市场并引发油价飙升，这一负相关性持续加深。与此同时，标普500指数中的其他股票则因难以走出熊市而表现沉寂。从2023年1月到3月，\"七巨头\"指数攀升了45%，而常规标普500指数仅上涨了7%。考虑到这七家公司约占标普500指数市值加权权重的三分之一，科技巨头的复苏对整体市场将是一个重大的积极因素。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，在这轮长达三年的牛市行情中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数绝大部分时间都与科技巨头的股价亦步亦趋。但两者之间的这种紧密关联正突然瓦解——这对走势低迷的科技股而言，或许是件好事。追踪&#34;华丽七巨头&#34;(Magnificent Seven)的指数与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XDEW.UK\">标普500等权</a>重指数(通过剔除最大公司权重来更准确反映所有股票整体表现的指数)之间的相关性，已于2月23日转为负值，表明两者走势不再同步。此后，随着伊朗战争扰乱市场并引发油价飙升，这一负相关性持续加深。</p><p>&#34;我们从未经历过速度如此之快的科技周期，&#34;Futurum Group首席执行官丹尼尔·纽曼表示，&#34;我们完全无法预测接下来会发生什么。&#34;</p><p>自2016年初以来，当前的相关性负值程度仅出现过一次。在2023年第一季度，随着OpenAI于2022年11月30日发布ChatGPT后掀起的人工智能热潮，&#34;七巨头&#34;——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>——股价一马当先。与此同时，标普500指数中的其他股票则因难以走出熊市而表现沉寂。</p><p>从2023年1月到3月，&#34;七巨头&#34;指数攀升了45%，而常规标普500指数仅上涨了7%。最终，科技股的热情蔓延至整个市场，标普500指数在2023年全年上涨24%，并在2024年再涨23%。</p><p>此番相关性瓦解之前，由于市场对巨额的AI支出感到担忧，&#34;七巨头&#34;已连续数月表现落后于大盘。从去年10月底到今年2月，彭博&#34;华丽七巨头&#34;指数下跌了7.3%，而同期由能源和材料等周期性板块领衔的标普500等权重指数则上涨了8.9%。</p><p>在相关性转为负值后的几周里，两大指数的走势互换了位置。尽管&#34;七巨头&#34;本月已跌入回调区间，但其跌幅仍小于更广泛的市场基准。</p><p>时移势易</p><p>当然，当前市场的处境与三年前已大相径庭，伊朗战争的阴云笼罩着一切。与此同时，&#34;七巨头&#34;的表现还受到战事爆发前就已存在的担忧的拖累，即对AI的巨额投入以及这项新兴技术将带来的颠覆性影响。</p><p>&#34;几年前，当&#39;七巨头&#39;相关性更高时，英伟达不断交出超预期的业绩修正，&#34; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JHG\">骏利亨德森</a>投资组合经理乔纳森·科夫斯基表示，&#34;当时我们并不那么担心资本支出和投资回报率，对AI和软件也没有那么多顾虑，苹果也没有面临内存短缺问题。&#34;</p><p>上一次相关性处于如此负值水平时，标志着&#34;七巨头&#34;一轮显著超额回报期的开始。从2023年初到今年2月23日，&#34;七巨头&#34;指数飙升逾300%，而标普500等权重指数仅上涨42%，常规标普500指数则上涨78%。</p><p>尽管华尔街鲜有人士预计历史会重演，但有理由对&#34;七巨头&#34;有望重拾市场领导地位持乐观态度。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>首席股票策略师欧桑·克万表示，这些股票的此轮回调已清除了过度投机头寸，并将估值推至具有吸引力的水平，为未来跑赢大盘创造了条件。</p><p>&#34;我们看到了资金从美国股市流向国际市场的、最为极端的相对流出之一，&#34;克万指出，并称这种逆转是由去年四月特朗普政府的关税计划引发的。&#34;此前这是一笔拥挤的交易，随着这场战争爆发，情况实际上开始逆转。而其中最明显的受益者将是科技板块，尤其是大型科技股。&#34;</p><p>市场汇编的数据显示，&#34;七巨头&#34;指数目前的预期市盈率不到25倍，低于去年10月时的近33倍，也低于其29倍的十年平均水平。这是自去年四月&#34;关税恐慌&#34;以来的最低水平。</p><p>考虑到这七家公司约占标普500指数市值加权权重的三分之一，科技巨头的复苏对整体市场将是一个重大的积极因素。</p><p>&#34;我们正接近一个大型科技股变得难以抗拒的节点，&#34;Futurum的纽曼表示。&#34;在这种环境下，如果你把钱投在这里，晚上可以睡个安稳觉。它们如此持久稳固，根基深厚，并且连续多个季度超额完成任务。&#34;</p><p>英伟达的停滞</p><p>然而，对多头而言，存在一个重大问题：英伟达。这家全球市值最高的公司——因此也是标普500指数中权重最大的个股——其涨势已陷入停滞。在自2022年底至去年7月飙升逾1100%之后，由于市场担忧其快速增长正接近顶峰，且投资者对其最大客户的巨额AI支出感到厌倦，该股在过去七个月里一直呈横盘整理态势。</p><p>这种疑虑在上周显露无遗，当时英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋预测到2027年数据中心销售额将达到1万亿美元，但这一预测未能提振投资者情绪。尽管在其年度开发者大会上发布了诸多其他利好消息，包括获得中国政府批准恢复在华AI芯片销售——该股当周仍以下跌4.1%收盘。</p><p>&#34;市场在告诉你，业绩预期太高了，&#34;持有英伟达股票的亨廷顿国家银行投资组合经理兰迪·哈尔表示，&#34;我们并不认同这一点，因此我们认为该股相对具有吸引力。&#34;</p><p>&#34;七巨头&#34;面临的另一个障碍是，由于竞相建设AI计算基础设施，这些公司的自由现金流出现恶化。最大的几家支出者——亚马逊、微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet和Meta——预计今年的合计自由现金流为940亿美元，较2025年的2050亿美元和2024年的2300亿美元显著下降。</p><p>Jonestrading首席市场策略师迈克尔·奥鲁克认为，尽管AI大市值股票估值有所降低，但市场对数据中心支出以及这些公司资产负债表上正在折旧的资产仍存疑虑，这依旧是一个主要问题。</p><p>&#34;超大规模企业的商业模式已经转变，因此它们理应获得较低的估值，&#34;奥鲁克表示。&#34;标普500指数与标普等权重指数之间30%的估值差距，对于希望平稳度过波动的投资者而言，完全值得转向等权重指数。&#34;</p><p>尽管如此，&#34;七巨头&#34;的盈利增长依然强劲。根据汇编的数据，其2026年利润预计将增长19%，而标普500指数中其他493家公司的利润预计将增长14%。</p><p>Futurum Group的纽曼认为，这种能够创造出高于市场其他部分利润的能力，最终是投资者最看重的。</p><p>&#34;这些公司的表现值得称赞，&#34;Futurum Group的纽曼表示。&#34;看着它们交出的业绩答卷，很难不问一句：你还有什么理由想去别处投资?&#34;</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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Seven)的指数与标普500等权重指数(通过剔除最大公司权重来更准确反映所有股票整体表现的指数)之间的相关性，已于2月23日转为负值，表明两者走势不再同步。此后，随着伊朗战争...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1417125.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK1147":"投资银行业与经纪业",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1417125.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2621747844","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，在这轮长达三年的牛市行情中，标普500指数绝大部分时间都与科技巨头的股价亦步亦趋。但两者之间的这种紧密关联正突然瓦解——这对走势低迷的科技股而言，或许是件好事。追踪\"华丽七巨头\"(Magnificent Seven)的指数与标普500等权重指数(通过剔除最大公司权重来更准确反映所有股票整体表现的指数)之间的相关性，已于2月23日转为负值，表明两者走势不再同步。此后，随着伊朗战争扰乱市场并引发油价飙升，这一负相关性持续加深。\"我们从未经历过速度如此之快的科技周期，\"Futurum Group首席执行官丹尼尔·纽曼表示，\"我们完全无法预测接下来会发生什么。\"自2016年初以来，当前的相关性负值程度仅出现过一次。在2023年第一季度，随着OpenAI于2022年11月30日发布ChatGPT后掀起的人工智能热潮，\"七巨头\"——包括英伟达、苹果、微软、谷歌母公司Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta Platforms和特斯拉——股价一马当先。与此同时，标普500指数中的其他股票则因难以走出熊市而表现沉寂。从2023年1月到3月，\"七巨头\"指数攀升了45%，而常规标普500指数仅上涨了7%。最终，科技股的热情蔓延至整个市场，标普500指数在2023年全年上涨24%，并在2024年再涨23%。此番相关性瓦解之前，由于市场对巨额的AI支出感到担忧，\"七巨头\"已连续数月表现落后于大盘。从去年10月底到今年2月，彭博\"华丽七巨头\"指数下跌了7.3%，而同期由能源和材料等周期性板块领衔的标普500等权重指数则上涨了8.9%。在相关性转为负值后的几周里，两大指数的走势互换了位置。尽管\"七巨头\"本月已跌入回调区间，但其跌幅仍小于更广泛的市场基准。时移势易当然，当前市场的处境与三年前已大相径庭，伊朗战争的阴云笼罩着一切。与此同时，\"七巨头\"的表现还受到战事爆发前就已存在的担忧的拖累，即对AI的巨额投入以及这项新兴技术将带来的颠覆性影响。\"几年前，当'七巨头'相关性更高时，英伟达不断交出超预期的业绩修正，\" 骏利亨德森投资组合经理乔纳森·科夫斯基表示，\"当时我们并不那么担心资本支出和投资回报率，对AI和软件也没有那么多顾虑，苹果也没有面临内存短缺问题。\"上一次相关性处于如此负值水平时，标志着\"七巨头\"一轮显著超额回报期的开始。从2023年初到今年2月23日，\"七巨头\"指数飙升逾300%，而标普500等权重指数仅上涨42%，常规标普500指数则上涨78%。尽管华尔街鲜有人士预计历史会重演，但有理由对\"七巨头\"有望重拾市场领导地位持乐观态度。富国银行首席股票策略师欧桑·克万表示，这些股票的此轮回调已清除了过度投机头寸，并将估值推至具有吸引力的水平，为未来跑赢大盘创造了条件。\"我们看到了资金从美国股市流向国际市场的、最为极端的相对流出之一，\"克万指出，并称这种逆转是由去年四月特朗普政府的关税计划引发的。\"此前这是一笔拥挤的交易，随着这场战争爆发，情况实际上开始逆转。而其中最明显的受益者将是科技板块，尤其是大型科技股。\"市场汇编的数据显示，\"七巨头\"指数目前的预期市盈率不到25倍，低于去年10月时的近33倍，也低于其29倍的十年平均水平。这是自去年四月\"关税恐慌\"以来的最低水平。考虑到这七家公司约占标普500指数市值加权权重的三分之一，科技巨头的复苏对整体市场将是一个重大的积极因素。\"我们正接近一个大型科技股变得难以抗拒的节点，\"Futurum的纽曼表示。\"在这种环境下，如果你把钱投在这里，晚上可以睡个安稳觉。它们如此持久稳固，根基深厚，并且连续多个季度超额完成任务。\"英伟达的停滞然而，对多头而言，存在一个重大问题：英伟达。这家全球市值最高的公司——因此也是标普500指数中权重最大的个股——其涨势已陷入停滞。在自2022年底至去年7月飙升逾1100%之后，由于市场担忧其快速增长正接近顶峰，且投资者对其最大客户的巨额AI支出感到厌倦，该股在过去七个月里一直呈横盘整理态势。这种疑虑在上周显露无遗，当时英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋预测到2027年数据中心销售额将达到1万亿美元，但这一预测未能提振投资者情绪。尽管在其年度开发者大会上发布了诸多其他利好消息，包括获得中国政府批准恢复在华AI芯片销售——该股当周仍以下跌4.1%收盘。\"市场在告诉你，业绩预期太高了，\"持有英伟达股票的亨廷顿国家银行投资组合经理兰迪·哈尔表示，\"我们并不认同这一点，因此我们认为该股相对具有吸引力。\"\"七巨头\"面临的另一个障碍是，由于竞相建设AI计算基础设施，这些公司的自由现金流出现恶化。最大的几家支出者——亚马逊、微软、谷歌母公司Alphabet和Meta——预计今年的合计自由现金流为940亿美元，较2025年的2050亿美元和2024年的2300亿美元显著下降。Jonestrading首席市场策略师迈克尔·奥鲁克认为，尽管AI大市值股票估值有所降低，但市场对数据中心支出以及这些公司资产负债表上正在折旧的资产仍存疑虑，这依旧是一个主要问题。\"超大规模企业的商业模式已经转变，因此它们理应获得较低的估值，\"奥鲁克表示。\"标普500指数与标普等权重指数之间30%的估值差距，对于希望平稳度过波动的投资者而言，完全值得转向等权重指数。\"尽管如此，\"七巨头\"的盈利增长依然强劲。根据汇编的数据，其2026年利润预计将增长19%，而标普500指数中其他493家公司的利润预计将增长14%。Futurum Group的纽曼认为，这种能够创造出高于市场其他部分利润的能力，最终是投资者最看重的。\"这些公司的表现值得称赞，\"Futurum Group的纽曼表示。\"看着它们交出的业绩答卷，很难不问一句：你还有什么理由想去别处投资?\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":2,"MNQmain":2,"NQmain":2,"ESmain":2,"MNQ2612":2,"YMmain":2,".DJI":2,".SPX":2,"NDX":2,"MNQ2603":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":545814068166784,"gmtCreate":1774264819065,"gmtModify":1774270312461,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3486352703133754","idStr":"3486352703133754"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2605(CLmain)$&nbsp;</a> 别搞啊，我刚满仓南油LOF","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2605(CLmain)$&nbsp;</a> 别搞啊，我刚满仓南油LOF","text":"$WTI原油主连 2605(CLmain)$ 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2603(CNmain)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fba8471cba0bc796b562cc3e41b0b5b","width":"1224","height":"2539"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/545812848769056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":32,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":545809231070200,"gmtCreate":1774263570135,"gmtModify":1774270312585,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3486352703133754","idStr":"3486352703133754"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 这一波会把美国搞衰退吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 这一波会把美国搞衰退吗","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 这一波会把美国搞衰退吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/545809231070200","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":545798699979880,"gmtCreate":1774261000466,"gmtModify":1774261675427,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3486352703133754","idStr":"3486352703133754"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"福特号已经撤了","listText":"福特号已经撤了","text":"福特号已经撤了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/545798699979880","repostId":"2621773357","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2621773357","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1774256896,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2621773357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-23 17:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伊朗冲突进入第四周：美股呈“倒U型”走势，仍未到最坏时刻","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2621773357","media":"智通财经","summary":"由于伊朗冲突升级和能源市场动荡，标普500指数面临更大的波动性，下行风险尚未完全消除。目前局势伊朗战争始于2月28日，至今已进入第四周，但冲突仍远未结束。尽管美国和以色列军队声称已经重创伊朗军队，局势依然僵化。据报道，伊朗使用了中程弹道导弹发动袭击，这颠覆了市场对伊朗政权拥有的先进导弹库类型的传统认知。与2025年4月因特朗普“解放日”引发的另一次事件驱动型市场崩盘相比，此次下跌的幅度较小。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>由于伊朗冲突升级和能源市场动荡，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数面临更大的波动性，下行风险尚未完全消除。尽管美国市场展现出韧性，但信贷压力指标和对冲需求的激增表明市场采取防御性策略，并担忧金融危机可能进一步加深。持续的能源冲击和滞胀的可能性可能会迫使美联储重新考虑利率政策，尤其是在油价可能飙升至每桶200美元且霍尔木兹<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">海峡</a>争端持续存在的情况下。</p><p>分析指出，市场正处于转折点：如果形势稳定，中期底部可能会形成;但持续的冲突可能会引发进一步下跌，尤其是目前市场估值已高达预期收益的20倍。</p><h2 id=\"id_243206307\">目前局势</h2><p>伊朗战争始于2月28日，至今已进入第四周，但冲突仍远未结束。尽管美国和以色列军队声称已经重创伊朗军队，局势依然僵化。就在上周末，伊朗险些袭击位于迪戈加西亚岛的美英联合军事基地。据报道，伊朗使用了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300208\">中程</a>弹道导弹发动袭击，这颠覆了市场对伊朗政权拥有的先进导弹库类型的传统认知。</p><p>尽管这次袭击最终并未如伊朗所愿，但它印证了一个观点：伊朗有能力采取更大幅度的升级行动，对美军仍然构成重大威胁，从而削弱了白宫和美国中央司令部(主要负责执行任务的美国地区军事司令部)的乐观情绪。然而，如今的威胁不仅限于中东地区，还需要考虑欧洲是否也可能面临伊朗的袭击风险。</p><p>随着第四周即将到来，威胁美国市场和全球市场的不确定性似乎正处于崩溃的边缘，尽管美国股市的表现优于全球股市，展现了投资者对美国股票的韧性和信心。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14928b011dbbecb828fd558aa6df69eb\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"445\"/></p><p>从上图可以看出，“走向全球化”的叙事显然已被颠覆——即“卖出美国”资产。这正对美国以外的股市造成震荡，令年初买入该策略的投资者遭受重创。现在，鉴于美国经济能源独立(美国是能源净出口国)，全球投资者现在开始将长期冲突的预期计入股价。</p><p>进入第四周，以色列和伊朗对中东能源基础设施的袭击，例如卡塔尔最近遭受的液化天然气生产中断，这可能导致未来五年内无法继续进行，这对严重依赖能源进口的国家来说是一个重大影响。</p><p>然而，韧性并不意味着(对美国经济而言)免疫，这就是为什么标普500指数和道琼斯指数本周仍将触及11月低点的原因。此外，下跌形态(标普500指数呈倒U型，道琼斯指数呈倒V型)以及迅速蔓延至美国市场的担忧情绪，也促使投资者争相买入对冲工具，其中“对冲需求依然极高， VIX空头头寸被轧空并转为净多头头寸，股票空头头寸则飙升”。</p><h2 id=\"id_3660487798\">伊朗战火对美股未来的可能影响</h2><p>目前，美股下行波动仍不能排除，尤其是有信贷市场指标显示信贷压力急剧上升，而且，根据历史回测，目前的状况不利。这也印证了这样一种观点：投资者不仅采取了更保守的策略，而且还担心潜在的信贷崩溃，这可能会引发更深层次的金融危机，鉴于当前能源冲击主要表现为供应链冲击，美联储可能难以有效应对，从而削弱了其正面应对的能力。</p><p>上周能源价格飙升，一度重新接近了3月初的高点(但此后有所回落)，投资者也因此消除了对未来12个月内再次降息的乐观情绪，削弱了鸽派立场，即如果霍尔木兹海峡僵局持续更长时间，则维持估值在高位的可能性。尽管最近的一份报告表明，更多国家现在可以采取更积极的措施来“确保安全通过海峡”。</p><p>然而，具体以何种形式或何时实施?这些都是亟需紧急(甚至立即)回应的关键问题。市场不确定是否已做好应对进一步长期拖延的准备，因为高能源价格(包括能源产品价格进一步上涨)的威胁可能会逆转2026年初较为温和的经济预测，并可能导致经济衰退。</p><p>因此，伊朗战争似乎还有“几周”的时间，之后才会真正出现最严重的负面影响。更糟糕的是，如果投资者开始预期会出现类似上世纪70年代的滞胀局面，那么也不能排除出现严重的熊市的可能性。</p><p>然而，事实是，如果不能重新控制霍尔木兹海峡，特朗普总统就很难找到脱身之计。而且，由于伊朗国内没有出现任何起义迹象，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队内部也没有出现异议，伊朗政权很可能会采取非常强硬的策略。他们为了生存，承受了来自美国和以色列的持续打击，这反而增强了他们坚持到底的决心，将政权的存亡视为一场来之不易的胜利。</p><p>如果美国现在不从伊朗手中彻底夺回霍尔木兹海峡的控制权就寻求退出，我们很可能陷入旷日持久的地缘政治困境，伊朗作为这条狭窄水道的实际守门人和过路费收取者，可能会掌握主动权。这种情况无疑会让世界局势更加恶化，而且随着美国权衡是否要采取后续更强有力的干预措施从伊朗手中夺回海峡，也会显著加剧地区冲突升级的风险。换句话说，所谓的“宣布胜利然后一走了之”的退出策略现在实际上已经行不通了，美国的中东伙伴不会对此感到高兴，他们很可能希望美国能够坚持到底，而不是在目前这种情况下就此罢休。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d4a04510362ec28b3d00159b8887637\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"386\"/></p><p>在这种情况下，或许很容易理解为什么标普500指数出现了相当迅速的抛售，如上图所示，这也类似于倒U型下跌，标志着对11月底部的重新测试，完成了轮动交易(从成长股到价值股)的显著转变。</p><p>与2025年4月因特朗普“解放日”引发的另一次事件驱动型市场崩盘相比，此次下跌的幅度较小。主要是由于特朗普对当时的局势升级有所顾虑，并迅速缓和了局势，帮助市场迅速回升至50周移动均线。</p><p>目前，这是自那以来美股首次在再次测试蓝线的同时，重新审视熊市/衰退的相关问题。虽然目前尚未出现看涨反转，表明投资者尚未积极逢低买入，但仍然有机会形成反转，而这一反转也锚定在上升的50周均线之上。</p><p>换句话说，如果市场认为近期的下跌已经基本反映了能源市场和滞胀担忧可能带来的最坏情况，那么应该会在未来几周内看到市场开始出现逆转。</p><p>然而，如果看不到更多建设性的进展，或者市场认为为了结束危机，美国必须进行一场更漫长、更持久或更血腥的地面战斗来夺回霍尔木兹海峡(从而长期封锁该海峡)，那么投资者甚至可能会开始将加息预期计入价格，因为美联储可能被迫应对油价接近200美元水平带来的通胀压力，以及随之而来的经济放缓的影响。考虑到美国股市和美国经济在 2026 年初的良好状态，这可能是伊朗战争可能带来的最糟糕的后果之一。</p><p>考虑到预计到 2026 年人工智能领域的资本支出将接近7000亿美元，市场甚至可能不得不接受一些延迟，因为超大规模数据中心运营商可能会开始将更令人担忧的能源成本计入价格，然后暂停某些项目，直到这场不断演变的冲突得到更明确的结束，而我们目前对此真的没有任何答案。</p><p>因此，市场确实正处于拐点，价格走势也印证了这一点。目前，虽然底部正在酝酿，但信号并不十分明确，市场仍然需要信号来验证底部已经形成的判断。</p><p>如果上述措施无效，标普500指数可能会出现更持续的下跌，因为其目前的市盈率仍高达20倍，远高于历史中位数15倍。如果企业盈利受到的影响是持续性的，并且会持续数个季度，而非目前这种短期影响，那么目前的盈利预期上升趋势甚至可能需要下调。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伊朗冲突进入第四周：美股呈“倒U型”走势，仍未到最坏时刻</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伊朗冲突进入第四周：美股呈“倒U型”走势，仍未到最坏时刻\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-23 17:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1417286.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>由于伊朗冲突升级和能源市场动荡，标普500指数面临更大的波动性，下行风险尚未完全消除。尽管美国市场展现出韧性，但信贷压力指标和对冲需求的激增表明市场采取防御性策略，并担忧金融危机可能进一步加深。持续的能源冲击和滞胀的可能性可能会迫使美联储重新考虑利率政策，尤其是在油价可能飙升至每桶200美元且霍尔木兹海峡争端持续存在的情况下。分析指出，市场正处于转折点：如果形势稳定，中期底部可能会形成;但持续的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1417286.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1417286.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2621773357","content_text":"由于伊朗冲突升级和能源市场动荡，标普500指数面临更大的波动性，下行风险尚未完全消除。尽管美国市场展现出韧性，但信贷压力指标和对冲需求的激增表明市场采取防御性策略，并担忧金融危机可能进一步加深。持续的能源冲击和滞胀的可能性可能会迫使美联储重新考虑利率政策，尤其是在油价可能飙升至每桶200美元且霍尔木兹海峡争端持续存在的情况下。分析指出，市场正处于转折点：如果形势稳定，中期底部可能会形成;但持续的冲突可能会引发进一步下跌，尤其是目前市场估值已高达预期收益的20倍。目前局势伊朗战争始于2月28日，至今已进入第四周，但冲突仍远未结束。尽管美国和以色列军队声称已经重创伊朗军队，局势依然僵化。就在上周末，伊朗险些袭击位于迪戈加西亚岛的美英联合军事基地。据报道，伊朗使用了中程弹道导弹发动袭击，这颠覆了市场对伊朗政权拥有的先进导弹库类型的传统认知。尽管这次袭击最终并未如伊朗所愿，但它印证了一个观点：伊朗有能力采取更大幅度的升级行动，对美军仍然构成重大威胁，从而削弱了白宫和美国中央司令部(主要负责执行任务的美国地区军事司令部)的乐观情绪。然而，如今的威胁不仅限于中东地区，还需要考虑欧洲是否也可能面临伊朗的袭击风险。随着第四周即将到来，威胁美国市场和全球市场的不确定性似乎正处于崩溃的边缘，尽管美国股市的表现优于全球股市，展现了投资者对美国股票的韧性和信心。从上图可以看出，“走向全球化”的叙事显然已被颠覆——即“卖出美国”资产。这正对美国以外的股市造成震荡，令年初买入该策略的投资者遭受重创。现在，鉴于美国经济能源独立(美国是能源净出口国)，全球投资者现在开始将长期冲突的预期计入股价。进入第四周，以色列和伊朗对中东能源基础设施的袭击，例如卡塔尔最近遭受的液化天然气生产中断，这可能导致未来五年内无法继续进行，这对严重依赖能源进口的国家来说是一个重大影响。然而，韧性并不意味着(对美国经济而言)免疫，这就是为什么标普500指数和道琼斯指数本周仍将触及11月低点的原因。此外，下跌形态(标普500指数呈倒U型，道琼斯指数呈倒V型)以及迅速蔓延至美国市场的担忧情绪，也促使投资者争相买入对冲工具，其中“对冲需求依然极高， VIX空头头寸被轧空并转为净多头头寸，股票空头头寸则飙升”。伊朗战火对美股未来的可能影响目前，美股下行波动仍不能排除，尤其是有信贷市场指标显示信贷压力急剧上升，而且，根据历史回测，目前的状况不利。这也印证了这样一种观点：投资者不仅采取了更保守的策略，而且还担心潜在的信贷崩溃，这可能会引发更深层次的金融危机，鉴于当前能源冲击主要表现为供应链冲击，美联储可能难以有效应对，从而削弱了其正面应对的能力。上周能源价格飙升，一度重新接近了3月初的高点(但此后有所回落)，投资者也因此消除了对未来12个月内再次降息的乐观情绪，削弱了鸽派立场，即如果霍尔木兹海峡僵局持续更长时间，则维持估值在高位的可能性。尽管最近的一份报告表明，更多国家现在可以采取更积极的措施来“确保安全通过海峡”。然而，具体以何种形式或何时实施?这些都是亟需紧急(甚至立即)回应的关键问题。市场不确定是否已做好应对进一步长期拖延的准备，因为高能源价格(包括能源产品价格进一步上涨)的威胁可能会逆转2026年初较为温和的经济预测，并可能导致经济衰退。因此，伊朗战争似乎还有“几周”的时间，之后才会真正出现最严重的负面影响。更糟糕的是，如果投资者开始预期会出现类似上世纪70年代的滞胀局面，那么也不能排除出现严重的熊市的可能性。然而，事实是，如果不能重新控制霍尔木兹海峡，特朗普总统就很难找到脱身之计。而且，由于伊朗国内没有出现任何起义迹象，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队内部也没有出现异议，伊朗政权很可能会采取非常强硬的策略。他们为了生存，承受了来自美国和以色列的持续打击，这反而增强了他们坚持到底的决心，将政权的存亡视为一场来之不易的胜利。如果美国现在不从伊朗手中彻底夺回霍尔木兹海峡的控制权就寻求退出，我们很可能陷入旷日持久的地缘政治困境，伊朗作为这条狭窄水道的实际守门人和过路费收取者，可能会掌握主动权。这种情况无疑会让世界局势更加恶化，而且随着美国权衡是否要采取后续更强有力的干预措施从伊朗手中夺回海峡，也会显著加剧地区冲突升级的风险。换句话说，所谓的“宣布胜利然后一走了之”的退出策略现在实际上已经行不通了，美国的中东伙伴不会对此感到高兴，他们很可能希望美国能够坚持到底，而不是在目前这种情况下就此罢休。在这种情况下，或许很容易理解为什么标普500指数出现了相当迅速的抛售，如上图所示，这也类似于倒U型下跌，标志着对11月底部的重新测试，完成了轮动交易(从成长股到价值股)的显著转变。与2025年4月因特朗普“解放日”引发的另一次事件驱动型市场崩盘相比，此次下跌的幅度较小。主要是由于特朗普对当时的局势升级有所顾虑，并迅速缓和了局势，帮助市场迅速回升至50周移动均线。目前，这是自那以来美股首次在再次测试蓝线的同时，重新审视熊市/衰退的相关问题。虽然目前尚未出现看涨反转，表明投资者尚未积极逢低买入，但仍然有机会形成反转，而这一反转也锚定在上升的50周均线之上。换句话说，如果市场认为近期的下跌已经基本反映了能源市场和滞胀担忧可能带来的最坏情况，那么应该会在未来几周内看到市场开始出现逆转。然而，如果看不到更多建设性的进展，或者市场认为为了结束危机，美国必须进行一场更漫长、更持久或更血腥的地面战斗来夺回霍尔木兹海峡(从而长期封锁该海峡)，那么投资者甚至可能会开始将加息预期计入价格，因为美联储可能被迫应对油价接近200美元水平带来的通胀压力，以及随之而来的经济放缓的影响。考虑到美国股市和美国经济在 2026 年初的良好状态，这可能是伊朗战争可能带来的最糟糕的后果之一。考虑到预计到 2026 年人工智能领域的资本支出将接近7000亿美元，市场甚至可能不得不接受一些延迟，因为超大规模数据中心运营商可能会开始将更令人担忧的能源成本计入价格，然后暂停某些项目，直到这场不断演变的冲突得到更明确的结束，而我们目前对此真的没有任何答案。因此，市场确实正处于拐点，价格走势也印证了这一点。目前，虽然底部正在酝酿，但信号并不十分明确，市场仍然需要信号来验证底部已经形成的判断。如果上述措施无效，标普500指数可能会出现更持续的下跌，因为其目前的市盈率仍高达20倍，远高于历史中位数15倍。如果企业盈利受到的影响是持续性的，并且会持续数个季度，而非目前这种短期影响，那么目前的盈利预期上升趋势甚至可能需要下调。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MNQ2603":2,"NQmain":2,".IXIC":2,"MNQ2612":2,"MNQmain":2,"NDX":2,"YMmain":2,".SPX":2,"ESmain":2,".DJI":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":46,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":545758827283096,"gmtCreate":1774251325055,"gmtModify":1774252562778,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3486352703133754","idStr":"3486352703133754"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fba8471cba0bc796b562cc3e41b0b5b"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/545758827283096","repostId":"1176696203","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1176696203","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1774250917,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176696203?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-23 15:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"国际油价持续走强，WTI原油期货涨幅扩大至3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176696203","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月23日，国际油价持续走强，WTI原油期货涨幅扩大至3%，报101.25美元/桶；布伦特原油期货涨2.5%，报109.12美元/桶。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>3月23日，国际油价持续走强，WTI原油期货涨幅扩大至3%，报101.25美元/桶；布伦特原油期货涨2.5%，报109.12美元/桶。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01377ec87bdc98f06e11e6e9cf1a9a55\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"728\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443092b8ba25860441936c0e67c27b4e\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"732\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>国际油价持续走强，WTI原油期货涨幅扩大至3%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n国际油价持续走强，WTI原油期货涨幅扩大至3%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-23 15:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>3月23日，国际油价持续走强，WTI原油期货涨幅扩大至3%，报101.25美元/桶；布伦特原油期货涨2.5%，报109.12美元/桶。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01377ec87bdc98f06e11e6e9cf1a9a55\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"728\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443092b8ba25860441936c0e67c27b4e\" tg-width=\"861\" 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