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Vinsa8

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07-07 22:14

$Coherent(COHR)$ 亚洲和美国形成了下跌螺旋？亚洲白天跌，美股一看亚洲跌了，跟一下吧，然后亚洲看到美国跌了，咱也要随一下呀

07-07 18:30

semi当了表字，还要立牌坊

“我们没有看空英伟达”！SemiAnalysis又发小作文：“AI央行”英伟达撬动7万亿债务雪球

07-07 08:22

$闪迪(SNDK)$ 三星一个季度赚了吗4000亿rmb啊，这是什么概念

07-02

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ 大空头又在做空科技，大家看看年线，今年6个月达子暴涨了4％，特斯拉微跌了11％，这么巨大的泡沫！！！

07-02

$苹果(AAPL)$ 涨价的破东西居然还能涨

07-02

赶紧找中国直接买部件，不要从0造轮子

特斯拉(TSLA)反转跌3% 二季度交付数据大幅超预期人形机器人量产节奏不及市场乐观预判

07-02

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ burry个傻鸟，弄死他，老子现在开始做多

06-29

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 价格来到了1月份的价格，半年白玩

06-29

$Coherent(COHR)$ 接着砸

06-29

$Coherent(COHR)$ 带头涨一次不行呀？轮也轮到你了呀

06-29

$COHERENT(COHR)$ 到强支撑位了

06-27

哈哈，互撕，挺好，苹果真丑陋

美光高管怒怼苹果定价模式：芯片成本涨45美元，终端加价250美元

06-26

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 大猩猩敲地球

06-26

$Lumentum Holdings Inc.(LITE)$ 被康宁锤了？

06-26

$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ 今天是这个桥段？

06-26

玻璃桥呢，玻璃桥技术呢

异动解读｜Applied Optoelectronics夜盘下跌5.08%，CPO量产延迟预期持续压制光通信板块

06-26

06-26

$康宁(GLW)$ 傻鸟，讲鬼故事把自己也坑了

06-25

$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ 咋了？特朗普嘎了？

06-25

$美光科技(MU)$ 前天-13％已经做好起飞姿势了

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亚洲和美国形成了下跌螺旋？亚洲白天跌，美股一看亚洲跌了，跟一下吧，然后亚洲看到美国跌了，咱也要随一下呀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/583279669330120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":583224583733616,"gmtCreate":1783420243604,"gmtModify":1783420471978,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3486352703133754","idStr":"3486352703133754"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"semi当了表字，还要立牌坊","listText":"semi当了表字，还要立牌坊","text":"semi当了表字，还要立牌坊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/583224583733616","repostId":"2649602081","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2649602081","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1783415617,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2649602081?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-07 17:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“我们没有看空英伟达”！SemiAnalysis又发小作文：“AI央行”英伟达撬动7万亿债务雪球","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2649602081","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"昨天刚爆料英伟达“Kyber机架”项目延迟，今天SemiAnalysis又甩出重磅预测：2029年AI债务将突破7万亿美元。英伟达正以自己“AA级”信用为这笔天量融资兜底，化身“AI央行”。而这家被网友质疑“发完看空报告就发ETF”的机构回应：“我们没有看空英伟达，只是在捕捉技术细节。”——争议越大，关注越大。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月6日，知名半导体研究机构SemiAnalysis在X平台连发六条推文，爆料<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>Kyber NVL144机架因PCB中板制造难题延迟超12个月。亚洲AI硬件供应链应声大跌。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达随后回应称“路线图未变”，但未披露具体进度细节。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">争议未平。7月7日，SemiAnalysis又甩出一份付费长文，将“矛头”对准英伟达。但这一次他不再扮演“看空者”角色。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysi预计：<strong>到2029年，全球AI债务融资规模将突破7万亿美元。7万亿美元是什么概念？它将仅次于美国住房抵押贷款市场（约13万亿美元），</strong>成为全球第二大资产支持债务市场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达在其中的角色是什么？SemiAnalysi披露了英伟达一项战略布局——<strong>“后盾计划”（backstop）。英伟达正用自己的AA/Aa2投资级信用评级，为AI算力租赁商提供最低收入保证，以此撬动银行放贷。换句话说，英伟达正在充当整个AI生态的最终贷款人和保险商，把大量销售记在账上同时把下游需求不足的风险部分扛在自己身上。</strong>SemiAnalysis将英伟达比作 <strong>“AI领域的中央银行” 。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/91001fdd3e6ad3b4ff1c05782d393b0e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"245\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于X平台上围绕SemiAnalysis是否“看空英伟达”的讨论。该机构说：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>自己没有发布关于英伟达股票的正面或负面观点，只是在准确捕捉供应链和技术细节，市场可以自行交易。</strong></p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d7305a726372e80f378ff9971d349418\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"599\" tg-height=\"359\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">AI债务雪球：2029年破7万亿，直逼美国房贷市场</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis认为，AI基础设施建设正在形成一个数万亿美元级别的信贷市场。到2029年，AI相关未偿债务可能达到约7.1万亿美元，规模将超过除美国按揭融资市场之外的其他美国资产支持债务市场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这部分债务主要来自两类资本开支。一类是AI IT资本开支，包括GPU、网络、存储和配套CPU；另一类是AI数据中心资本开支，包括承载这些GPU所需的机房、电力和制冷等基础设施。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4c8dcdeecba2f817ca08947045f7b3fc\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"429\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去，Google、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>、Microsoft、Oracle等云巨头主要依靠自身现金流建设AI集群。但过去一年，Oracle、Meta，甚至Google开始更多使用债务。随着项目规模继续扩大，市场约束不再只是能否拿到GPU，也不是单纯能否找到机房，而是能否借到足够便宜、足够长期的钱。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis给出的结论是，AI资本开支的融资方式正在改变。云巨头资产负债表并非无限，如果所有AI集群都依赖少数投资级云厂商背书，新增项目迟早会遇到信用瓶颈。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">“三位一体”困局：资本、客户和数据中心缺一不可</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis将AI项目融资拆解为“三位一体”：资本、包销合同和数据中心。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第一是资本。贷款人通常需要看到投资级云厂商的长期take-or-pay合同，或类似信用担保，才愿意放款。换言之，贷款人真正看重的不是Neocloud本身信用，而是背后客户的信用。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第二是包销。Neocloud要拿到客户，往往需要先证明自己能够支付GPU订金并锁定设备。但要拿到股权资金，又需要先证明自己有客户和贷款。这使项目在早期很容易陷入循环。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第三是数据中心。Neocloud要么拿着客户合同和融资去说服数据中心运营商出租容量，要么自己建设数据中心。后者资金压力更大，周期也更长。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这套模式使市场被锁在“5年期、云巨头背书”的模板里。问题是，<strong>许多VC支持的AI初创公司和推理服务商需要的是短周期、大规模算力，而不是5年长期合同。推理服务商尤其不愿承担长期价格和需求风险，很多情况下宁愿放弃算力，也不愿签超过1年的租约。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">“AI央行”英伟达：用AA级信用撬动整个市场</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英伟达提出“后盾计划”，切入这个融资缺口。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据SemiAnalysis，英伟达向Neocloud提供GPU租赁收入兜底。如果第三方客户需求不足，英伟达承诺按预设价格购买算力；如果Neocloud以更高价格出租算力，英伟达则分享一部分超额收入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这类安排通常为6年期，按事先约定的价格曲线，对底层GPU容量提供最低收入保证。Neocloud仍可把算力租给任何客户，也可以提供更灵活的租期。只有当市场需求不足、无法按市场价格出租时，才会触发英伟达兜底。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ccc5e161a0ba93d48704dfb9fd932bb0\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"489\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这就是“AI央行”比喻的来源。英伟达并非真的发行货币，而是在AI算力信用体系中扮演类似最后买方和信用背书人的角色。贷款人可以基于英伟达AA/Aa2级别信用来评估项目最差情景，从而更愿意放款。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对英伟达而言，这有助于扩大GPU买方基础。如果市场只能依赖少数超大云厂商签5年包销合同，GPU需求很快会撞上融资约束；而这些云厂商还在用自研芯片对冲英伟达系统。扶持Neocloud和更多企业客户，等于为GPU需求打开新的融资通道。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">“兜底计划”结构拆解：英伟达赚多少，NeoCloud赚多少</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis强调，Neocloud不是免费使用英伟达信用。兜底结构下，<strong>Neocloud要牺牲一部分上行收益，以换取项目可融资性。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在一个示例价格曲线中，6年平均兜底价格为每GPU每小时2.36美元。假设GB300第一年1年期租赁价格为每小时6.75美元，第一年兜底价为每小时3.68美元，客户价格与兜底价之间的差额为3.07美元。若英伟达拿走超出兜底价部分的40%，英伟达获得1.23美元，Neocloud获得1.84美元，Neocloud第一年实际收入为每小时5.52美元，低于无兜底时的6.75美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/647f8c012fe4faafa5830da891a9ec8b\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"785\" tg-height=\"384\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>六年下来，在这一情景中，英伟达平均抽成约18%。Neocloud的项目IRR也会下降。有英伟达兜底且以1年期短租为主的情景下，项目IRR为25.4%；如果没有兜底但仍能顺利融资并出租，IRR可达40.7%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">关键在最差情景。如果需求不足，Neocloud只能把算力租给英伟达，项目回报可能接近零，甚至略为负数。贷款人并不要求最差情况下项目赚钱，只要求最差情况下仍能还债。也正因此，债务能否成立，最终越来越取决于英伟达兜底是否可靠。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这也是投资者应关注的核心：英伟达的安排短期有助于推动GPU销售和Neocloud扩张，但如果算力需求低于预期，收入缺口将由英伟达承接。债务未必直接记在英伟达账上，但融资模型的安全垫正在向英伟达信用集中。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">GPU融资定价，本质上看谁在背书</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis称，目前GPU融资市场的定价，主要不是看Neocloud自身信用，而是看谁签了长期包销合同。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave</a>是一个参照。其5年期无担保债券收益率约10%；但由Meta背书的85亿美元DDTL 4.0延迟提款定期贷款中，固定利率部分成本约5.9%，只比Meta 5年期债券收益率约5.0%高90个基点。这个90个基点，大致体现了市场给CoreWeave执行风险的定价。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/87070f82f896f12e537b70fa4d67ffec\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"590\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果Neocloud脱离长期云厂商包销，融资成本会明显升高。对头部Neocloud来说，无担保融资可能需要支付约10%的利率，比有背书融资高约4个百分点。在70%至80%的贷款价值比下，融资成本从5.62%升至10%，税前利润率会从14.8%降至5.4%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达兜底会把定价放在两者之间：高于当前云厂商背书交易约5.9%的总收益率，低于CoreWeave无担保债券约10%的收益率。银行最看重的是偿债覆盖率DSCR。对于有英伟达兜底的项目，贷款规模通常按兜底被触发的情景测算，前几年DSCR至少要达到1.3倍，对应贷款价值比通常为70%至80%。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">公开项目在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002540\">亚太</a>放大，兜底模式开始落地</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">目前已公开的英伟达兜底项目集中在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002284\">亚太</a>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第一个是澳大利亚SharonAI的72MW AI工厂。该项目于2026年6月公布，计划在6年期兜底下扩展至最多4万颗GB300。SharonAI披露的总兜底价值为48.8亿美元，折算六年平均底价约为每GPU每小时2.33美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一个是Firmus在印尼巴淡岛的360MW AI集群，可能位于DayOne在Kabil Industrial Tech Park的设施中。该项目于2026年6月29日公布，显示英伟达兜底正在进入更大规模。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Firmus预计该项目六年客户收入为250亿至300亿美元，目标客户包括AI原生公司、企业客户和推理服务商，并提供不同租期。不过，在部署GPU前，Firmus仍需确定数据中心提供方，或继续自建。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis还指出，英伟达并非唯一使用兜底安排的GPU厂商。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>去年已经向AWS、OCI、DigitalOcean、Vultr、Tensorwave、Crusoe等客户提供过类似安排：客户购买更多AMD GPU，如果Neocloud无法完全出售容量，AMD愿意以长期合同形式租回一部分，用于内部软件开发。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis否认看空，但市场对其信号更加敏感</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这篇文章发布之际，SemiAnalysis本身也处在争议中。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月6日上午，SemiAnalysis曾在X平台发布连续推文，称英伟达Kyber NVL144机架架构遭遇重大延迟，推迟超过12个月至2028年。该消息在盘前引发关注，并导致日本、韩国及中国台湾地区多只AI硬件供应链股票下跌。英伟达随后回应称，其产品路线图并未改变，否认核心进度受影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这使SemiAnalysis的后续文章更容易被市场解读为看空或看多英伟达。对此，SemiAnalysis在X回应称，<strong>自己没有发布关于英伟达股票的正面或负面观点，只是分享公司供应链和技术细节。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Crackerjack Finance则反驳了“看空”解读，称SemiAnalysis图表显示下半年实际数据比市场预期高20%，并据此推导出下一年每股收益约15美元，股价应在300至400美元。THE Grand Poobah则评论称，“三方循环融资似乎已经不够了”，指向市场对融资结构复杂化的担忧。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">问题在于，AI相关资产已历经多年上涨，估值与预期均处高位。任何供应链风险信号或融资结构变化，都会被迅速放大。SemiAnalysis的澄清可以说明其并未直接给出股票观点，但在Kyber NVL144风波之后，其供应链爆料的市场影响力与公信力争议将继续并存。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对投资者而言，这次“长文”的真正含义是：AI竞争已经不只是“谁有GPU”，而是“谁能把GPU、债务、客户合同和数据中心同时拼起来”。<strong>英伟达的兜底机制可能继续放大GPU需求，也可能让AI债务周期的尾部压力更多集中到英伟达自身信用上。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“我们没有看空英伟达”！SemiAnalysis又发小作文：“AI央行”英伟达撬动7万亿债务雪球</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“我们没有看空英伟达”！SemiAnalysis又发小作文：“AI央行”英伟达撬动7万亿债务雪球\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-07 17:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月6日，知名半导体研究机构SemiAnalysis在X平台连发六条推文，爆料<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>Kyber NVL144机架因PCB中板制造难题延迟超12个月。亚洲AI硬件供应链应声大跌。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达随后回应称“路线图未变”，但未披露具体进度细节。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">争议未平。7月7日，SemiAnalysis又甩出一份付费长文，将“矛头”对准英伟达。但这一次他不再扮演“看空者”角色。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysi预计：<strong>到2029年，全球AI债务融资规模将突破7万亿美元。7万亿美元是什么概念？它将仅次于美国住房抵押贷款市场（约13万亿美元），</strong>成为全球第二大资产支持债务市场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达在其中的角色是什么？SemiAnalysi披露了英伟达一项战略布局——<strong>“后盾计划”（backstop）。英伟达正用自己的AA/Aa2投资级信用评级，为AI算力租赁商提供最低收入保证，以此撬动银行放贷。换句话说，英伟达正在充当整个AI生态的最终贷款人和保险商，把大量销售记在账上同时把下游需求不足的风险部分扛在自己身上。</strong>SemiAnalysis将英伟达比作 <strong>“AI领域的中央银行” 。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/91001fdd3e6ad3b4ff1c05782d393b0e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"245\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于X平台上围绕SemiAnalysis是否“看空英伟达”的讨论。该机构说：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>自己没有发布关于英伟达股票的正面或负面观点，只是在准确捕捉供应链和技术细节，市场可以自行交易。</strong></p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d7305a726372e80f378ff9971d349418\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"599\" tg-height=\"359\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">AI债务雪球：2029年破7万亿，直逼美国房贷市场</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis认为，AI基础设施建设正在形成一个数万亿美元级别的信贷市场。到2029年，AI相关未偿债务可能达到约7.1万亿美元，规模将超过除美国按揭融资市场之外的其他美国资产支持债务市场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这部分债务主要来自两类资本开支。一类是AI IT资本开支，包括GPU、网络、存储和配套CPU；另一类是AI数据中心资本开支，包括承载这些GPU所需的机房、电力和制冷等基础设施。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4c8dcdeecba2f817ca08947045f7b3fc\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"429\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去，Google、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>、Microsoft、Oracle等云巨头主要依靠自身现金流建设AI集群。但过去一年，Oracle、Meta，甚至Google开始更多使用债务。随着项目规模继续扩大，市场约束不再只是能否拿到GPU，也不是单纯能否找到机房，而是能否借到足够便宜、足够长期的钱。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis给出的结论是，AI资本开支的融资方式正在改变。云巨头资产负债表并非无限，如果所有AI集群都依赖少数投资级云厂商背书，新增项目迟早会遇到信用瓶颈。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">“三位一体”困局：资本、客户和数据中心缺一不可</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis将AI项目融资拆解为“三位一体”：资本、包销合同和数据中心。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第一是资本。贷款人通常需要看到投资级云厂商的长期take-or-pay合同，或类似信用担保，才愿意放款。换言之，贷款人真正看重的不是Neocloud本身信用，而是背后客户的信用。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第二是包销。Neocloud要拿到客户，往往需要先证明自己能够支付GPU订金并锁定设备。但要拿到股权资金，又需要先证明自己有客户和贷款。这使项目在早期很容易陷入循环。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第三是数据中心。Neocloud要么拿着客户合同和融资去说服数据中心运营商出租容量，要么自己建设数据中心。后者资金压力更大，周期也更长。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这套模式使市场被锁在“5年期、云巨头背书”的模板里。问题是，<strong>许多VC支持的AI初创公司和推理服务商需要的是短周期、大规模算力，而不是5年长期合同。推理服务商尤其不愿承担长期价格和需求风险，很多情况下宁愿放弃算力，也不愿签超过1年的租约。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">“AI央行”英伟达：用AA级信用撬动整个市场</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英伟达提出“后盾计划”，切入这个融资缺口。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据SemiAnalysis，英伟达向Neocloud提供GPU租赁收入兜底。如果第三方客户需求不足，英伟达承诺按预设价格购买算力；如果Neocloud以更高价格出租算力，英伟达则分享一部分超额收入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这类安排通常为6年期，按事先约定的价格曲线，对底层GPU容量提供最低收入保证。Neocloud仍可把算力租给任何客户，也可以提供更灵活的租期。只有当市场需求不足、无法按市场价格出租时，才会触发英伟达兜底。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ccc5e161a0ba93d48704dfb9fd932bb0\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"489\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这就是“AI央行”比喻的来源。英伟达并非真的发行货币，而是在AI算力信用体系中扮演类似最后买方和信用背书人的角色。贷款人可以基于英伟达AA/Aa2级别信用来评估项目最差情景，从而更愿意放款。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对英伟达而言，这有助于扩大GPU买方基础。如果市场只能依赖少数超大云厂商签5年包销合同，GPU需求很快会撞上融资约束；而这些云厂商还在用自研芯片对冲英伟达系统。扶持Neocloud和更多企业客户，等于为GPU需求打开新的融资通道。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">“兜底计划”结构拆解：英伟达赚多少，NeoCloud赚多少</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis强调，Neocloud不是免费使用英伟达信用。兜底结构下，<strong>Neocloud要牺牲一部分上行收益，以换取项目可融资性。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在一个示例价格曲线中，6年平均兜底价格为每GPU每小时2.36美元。假设GB300第一年1年期租赁价格为每小时6.75美元，第一年兜底价为每小时3.68美元，客户价格与兜底价之间的差额为3.07美元。若英伟达拿走超出兜底价部分的40%，英伟达获得1.23美元，Neocloud获得1.84美元，Neocloud第一年实际收入为每小时5.52美元，低于无兜底时的6.75美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/647f8c012fe4faafa5830da891a9ec8b\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"785\" tg-height=\"384\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>六年下来，在这一情景中，英伟达平均抽成约18%。Neocloud的项目IRR也会下降。有英伟达兜底且以1年期短租为主的情景下，项目IRR为25.4%；如果没有兜底但仍能顺利融资并出租，IRR可达40.7%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">关键在最差情景。如果需求不足，Neocloud只能把算力租给英伟达，项目回报可能接近零，甚至略为负数。贷款人并不要求最差情况下项目赚钱，只要求最差情况下仍能还债。也正因此，债务能否成立，最终越来越取决于英伟达兜底是否可靠。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这也是投资者应关注的核心：英伟达的安排短期有助于推动GPU销售和Neocloud扩张，但如果算力需求低于预期，收入缺口将由英伟达承接。债务未必直接记在英伟达账上，但融资模型的安全垫正在向英伟达信用集中。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">GPU融资定价，本质上看谁在背书</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis称，目前GPU融资市场的定价，主要不是看Neocloud自身信用，而是看谁签了长期包销合同。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave</a>是一个参照。其5年期无担保债券收益率约10%；但由Meta背书的85亿美元DDTL 4.0延迟提款定期贷款中，固定利率部分成本约5.9%，只比Meta 5年期债券收益率约5.0%高90个基点。这个90个基点，大致体现了市场给CoreWeave执行风险的定价。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/87070f82f896f12e537b70fa4d67ffec\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"590\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果Neocloud脱离长期云厂商包销，融资成本会明显升高。对头部Neocloud来说，无担保融资可能需要支付约10%的利率，比有背书融资高约4个百分点。在70%至80%的贷款价值比下，融资成本从5.62%升至10%，税前利润率会从14.8%降至5.4%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达兜底会把定价放在两者之间：高于当前云厂商背书交易约5.9%的总收益率，低于CoreWeave无担保债券约10%的收益率。银行最看重的是偿债覆盖率DSCR。对于有英伟达兜底的项目，贷款规模通常按兜底被触发的情景测算，前几年DSCR至少要达到1.3倍，对应贷款价值比通常为70%至80%。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">公开项目在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002540\">亚太</a>放大，兜底模式开始落地</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">目前已公开的英伟达兜底项目集中在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002284\">亚太</a>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第一个是澳大利亚SharonAI的72MW AI工厂。该项目于2026年6月公布，计划在6年期兜底下扩展至最多4万颗GB300。SharonAI披露的总兜底价值为48.8亿美元，折算六年平均底价约为每GPU每小时2.33美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一个是Firmus在印尼巴淡岛的360MW AI集群，可能位于DayOne在Kabil Industrial Tech Park的设施中。该项目于2026年6月29日公布，显示英伟达兜底正在进入更大规模。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Firmus预计该项目六年客户收入为250亿至300亿美元，目标客户包括AI原生公司、企业客户和推理服务商，并提供不同租期。不过，在部署GPU前，Firmus仍需确定数据中心提供方，或继续自建。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis还指出，英伟达并非唯一使用兜底安排的GPU厂商。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>去年已经向AWS、OCI、DigitalOcean、Vultr、Tensorwave、Crusoe等客户提供过类似安排：客户购买更多AMD GPU，如果Neocloud无法完全出售容量，AMD愿意以长期合同形式租回一部分，用于内部软件开发。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis否认看空，但市场对其信号更加敏感</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这篇文章发布之际，SemiAnalysis本身也处在争议中。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月6日上午，SemiAnalysis曾在X平台发布连续推文，称英伟达Kyber NVL144机架架构遭遇重大延迟，推迟超过12个月至2028年。该消息在盘前引发关注，并导致日本、韩国及中国台湾地区多只AI硬件供应链股票下跌。英伟达随后回应称，其产品路线图并未改变，否认核心进度受影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这使SemiAnalysis的后续文章更容易被市场解读为看空或看多英伟达。对此，SemiAnalysis在X回应称，<strong>自己没有发布关于英伟达股票的正面或负面观点，只是分享公司供应链和技术细节。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Crackerjack Finance则反驳了“看空”解读，称SemiAnalysis图表显示下半年实际数据比市场预期高20%，并据此推导出下一年每股收益约15美元，股价应在300至400美元。THE Grand Poobah则评论称，“三方循环融资似乎已经不够了”，指向市场对融资结构复杂化的担忧。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">问题在于，AI相关资产已历经多年上涨，估值与预期均处高位。任何供应链风险信号或融资结构变化，都会被迅速放大。SemiAnalysis的澄清可以说明其并未直接给出股票观点，但在Kyber NVL144风波之后，其供应链爆料的市场影响力与公信力争议将继续并存。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对投资者而言，这次“长文”的真正含义是：AI竞争已经不只是“谁有GPU”，而是“谁能把GPU、债务、客户合同和数据中心同时拼起来”。<strong>英伟达的兜底机制可能继续放大GPU需求，也可能让AI债务周期的尾部压力更多集中到英伟达自身信用上。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5cb96d291609174f46c3a4f8f55c4f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3776368","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2649602081","content_text":"7月6日，知名半导体研究机构SemiAnalysis在X平台连发六条推文，爆料英伟达Kyber NVL144机架因PCB中板制造难题延迟超12个月。亚洲AI硬件供应链应声大跌。英伟达随后回应称“路线图未变”，但未披露具体进度细节。争议未平。7月7日，SemiAnalysis又甩出一份付费长文，将“矛头”对准英伟达。但这一次他不再扮演“看空者”角色。SemiAnalysi预计：到2029年，全球AI债务融资规模将突破7万亿美元。7万亿美元是什么概念？它将仅次于美国住房抵押贷款市场（约13万亿美元），成为全球第二大资产支持债务市场。英伟达在其中的角色是什么？SemiAnalysi披露了英伟达一项战略布局——“后盾计划”（backstop）。英伟达正用自己的AA/Aa2投资级信用评级，为AI算力租赁商提供最低收入保证，以此撬动银行放贷。换句话说，英伟达正在充当整个AI生态的最终贷款人和保险商，把大量销售记在账上同时把下游需求不足的风险部分扛在自己身上。SemiAnalysis将英伟达比作 “AI领域的中央银行” 。对于X平台上围绕SemiAnalysis是否“看空英伟达”的讨论。该机构说：自己没有发布关于英伟达股票的正面或负面观点，只是在准确捕捉供应链和技术细节，市场可以自行交易。AI债务雪球：2029年破7万亿，直逼美国房贷市场SemiAnalysis认为，AI基础设施建设正在形成一个数万亿美元级别的信贷市场。到2029年，AI相关未偿债务可能达到约7.1万亿美元，规模将超过除美国按揭融资市场之外的其他美国资产支持债务市场。这部分债务主要来自两类资本开支。一类是AI IT资本开支，包括GPU、网络、存储和配套CPU；另一类是AI数据中心资本开支，包括承载这些GPU所需的机房、电力和制冷等基础设施。过去，Google、Amazon、Meta、Microsoft、Oracle等云巨头主要依靠自身现金流建设AI集群。但过去一年，Oracle、Meta，甚至Google开始更多使用债务。随着项目规模继续扩大，市场约束不再只是能否拿到GPU，也不是单纯能否找到机房，而是能否借到足够便宜、足够长期的钱。SemiAnalysis给出的结论是，AI资本开支的融资方式正在改变。云巨头资产负债表并非无限，如果所有AI集群都依赖少数投资级云厂商背书，新增项目迟早会遇到信用瓶颈。“三位一体”困局：资本、客户和数据中心缺一不可SemiAnalysis将AI项目融资拆解为“三位一体”：资本、包销合同和数据中心。第一是资本。贷款人通常需要看到投资级云厂商的长期take-or-pay合同，或类似信用担保，才愿意放款。换言之，贷款人真正看重的不是Neocloud本身信用，而是背后客户的信用。第二是包销。Neocloud要拿到客户，往往需要先证明自己能够支付GPU订金并锁定设备。但要拿到股权资金，又需要先证明自己有客户和贷款。这使项目在早期很容易陷入循环。第三是数据中心。Neocloud要么拿着客户合同和融资去说服数据中心运营商出租容量，要么自己建设数据中心。后者资金压力更大，周期也更长。这套模式使市场被锁在“5年期、云巨头背书”的模板里。问题是，许多VC支持的AI初创公司和推理服务商需要的是短周期、大规模算力，而不是5年长期合同。推理服务商尤其不愿承担长期价格和需求风险，很多情况下宁愿放弃算力，也不愿签超过1年的租约。“AI央行”英伟达：用AA级信用撬动整个市场英伟达提出“后盾计划”，切入这个融资缺口。据SemiAnalysis，英伟达向Neocloud提供GPU租赁收入兜底。如果第三方客户需求不足，英伟达承诺按预设价格购买算力；如果Neocloud以更高价格出租算力，英伟达则分享一部分超额收入。这类安排通常为6年期，按事先约定的价格曲线，对底层GPU容量提供最低收入保证。Neocloud仍可把算力租给任何客户，也可以提供更灵活的租期。只有当市场需求不足、无法按市场价格出租时，才会触发英伟达兜底。这就是“AI央行”比喻的来源。英伟达并非真的发行货币，而是在AI算力信用体系中扮演类似最后买方和信用背书人的角色。贷款人可以基于英伟达AA/Aa2级别信用来评估项目最差情景，从而更愿意放款。对英伟达而言，这有助于扩大GPU买方基础。如果市场只能依赖少数超大云厂商签5年包销合同，GPU需求很快会撞上融资约束；而这些云厂商还在用自研芯片对冲英伟达系统。扶持Neocloud和更多企业客户，等于为GPU需求打开新的融资通道。“兜底计划”结构拆解：英伟达赚多少，NeoCloud赚多少SemiAnalysis强调，Neocloud不是免费使用英伟达信用。兜底结构下，Neocloud要牺牲一部分上行收益，以换取项目可融资性。在一个示例价格曲线中，6年平均兜底价格为每GPU每小时2.36美元。假设GB300第一年1年期租赁价格为每小时6.75美元，第一年兜底价为每小时3.68美元，客户价格与兜底价之间的差额为3.07美元。若英伟达拿走超出兜底价部分的40%，英伟达获得1.23美元，Neocloud获得1.84美元，Neocloud第一年实际收入为每小时5.52美元，低于无兜底时的6.75美元。六年下来，在这一情景中，英伟达平均抽成约18%。Neocloud的项目IRR也会下降。有英伟达兜底且以1年期短租为主的情景下，项目IRR为25.4%；如果没有兜底但仍能顺利融资并出租，IRR可达40.7%。关键在最差情景。如果需求不足，Neocloud只能把算力租给英伟达，项目回报可能接近零，甚至略为负数。贷款人并不要求最差情况下项目赚钱，只要求最差情况下仍能还债。也正因此，债务能否成立，最终越来越取决于英伟达兜底是否可靠。这也是投资者应关注的核心：英伟达的安排短期有助于推动GPU销售和Neocloud扩张，但如果算力需求低于预期，收入缺口将由英伟达承接。债务未必直接记在英伟达账上，但融资模型的安全垫正在向英伟达信用集中。GPU融资定价，本质上看谁在背书SemiAnalysis称，目前GPU融资市场的定价，主要不是看Neocloud自身信用，而是看谁签了长期包销合同。CoreWeave是一个参照。其5年期无担保债券收益率约10%；但由Meta背书的85亿美元DDTL 4.0延迟提款定期贷款中，固定利率部分成本约5.9%，只比Meta 5年期债券收益率约5.0%高90个基点。这个90个基点，大致体现了市场给CoreWeave执行风险的定价。如果Neocloud脱离长期云厂商包销，融资成本会明显升高。对头部Neocloud来说，无担保融资可能需要支付约10%的利率，比有背书融资高约4个百分点。在70%至80%的贷款价值比下，融资成本从5.62%升至10%，税前利润率会从14.8%降至5.4%。英伟达兜底会把定价放在两者之间：高于当前云厂商背书交易约5.9%的总收益率，低于CoreWeave无担保债券约10%的收益率。银行最看重的是偿债覆盖率DSCR。对于有英伟达兜底的项目，贷款规模通常按兜底被触发的情景测算，前几年DSCR至少要达到1.3倍，对应贷款价值比通常为70%至80%。公开项目在亚太放大，兜底模式开始落地目前已公开的英伟达兜底项目集中在亚太。第一个是澳大利亚SharonAI的72MW AI工厂。该项目于2026年6月公布，计划在6年期兜底下扩展至最多4万颗GB300。SharonAI披露的总兜底价值为48.8亿美元，折算六年平均底价约为每GPU每小时2.33美元。另一个是Firmus在印尼巴淡岛的360MW AI集群，可能位于DayOne在Kabil Industrial Tech Park的设施中。该项目于2026年6月29日公布，显示英伟达兜底正在进入更大规模。Firmus预计该项目六年客户收入为250亿至300亿美元，目标客户包括AI原生公司、企业客户和推理服务商，并提供不同租期。不过，在部署GPU前，Firmus仍需确定数据中心提供方，或继续自建。SemiAnalysis还指出，英伟达并非唯一使用兜底安排的GPU厂商。AMD去年已经向AWS、OCI、DigitalOcean、Vultr、Tensorwave、Crusoe等客户提供过类似安排：客户购买更多AMD GPU，如果Neocloud无法完全出售容量，AMD愿意以长期合同形式租回一部分，用于内部软件开发。SemiAnalysis否认看空，但市场对其信号更加敏感这篇文章发布之际，SemiAnalysis本身也处在争议中。7月6日上午，SemiAnalysis曾在X平台发布连续推文，称英伟达Kyber NVL144机架架构遭遇重大延迟，推迟超过12个月至2028年。该消息在盘前引发关注，并导致日本、韩国及中国台湾地区多只AI硬件供应链股票下跌。英伟达随后回应称，其产品路线图并未改变，否认核心进度受影响。这使SemiAnalysis的后续文章更容易被市场解读为看空或看多英伟达。对此，SemiAnalysis在X回应称，自己没有发布关于英伟达股票的正面或负面观点，只是分享公司供应链和技术细节。Crackerjack Finance则反驳了“看空”解读，称SemiAnalysis图表显示下半年实际数据比市场预期高20%，并据此推导出下一年每股收益约15美元，股价应在300至400美元。THE Grand Poobah则评论称，“三方循环融资似乎已经不够了”，指向市场对融资结构复杂化的担忧。问题在于，AI相关资产已历经多年上涨，估值与预期均处高位。任何供应链风险信号或融资结构变化，都会被迅速放大。SemiAnalysis的澄清可以说明其并未直接给出股票观点，但在Kyber 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;大空头又在做空科技，大家看看年线，今年6个月达子暴涨了4％，特斯拉微跌了11％，这么巨大的泡沫！！！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;大空头又在做空科技，大家看看年线，今年6个月达子暴涨了4％，特斯拉微跌了11％，这么巨大的泡沫！！！","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ 大空头又在做空科技，大家看看年线，今年6个月达子暴涨了4％，特斯拉微跌了11％，这么巨大的泡沫！！！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/581528812134664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":581524133614232,"gmtCreate":1783005095117,"gmtModify":1783005536130,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3486352703133754","idStr":"3486352703133754"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a> 涨价的破东西居然还能涨","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a> 涨价的破东西居然还能涨","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 涨价的破东西居然还能涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/581524133614232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":581515757200424,"gmtCreate":1783003056919,"gmtModify":1783003440305,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3486352703133754","idStr":"3486352703133754"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"赶紧找中国直接买部件，不要从0造轮子","listText":"赶紧找中国直接买部件，不要从0造轮子","text":"赶紧找中国直接买部件，不要从0造轮子","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/581515757200424","repostId":"2648685394","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2648685394","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"「金吾财讯」以精准用户需求为切入点，打造一站式港美股投资细分领域品牌。依托战略合作伙伴凤凰网财经，将港美股内容传播到全球华人圈。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"金吾财讯","id":"1086022552","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a93586c3b023ec6ebfed568990555c"},"pubTimestamp":1783001425,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2648685394?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-02 22:10","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉(TSLA)反转跌3% 二季度交付数据大幅超预期 人形机器人量产节奏不及市场乐观预判","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2648685394","media":"金吾财讯","summary":"金吾财讯 | 特斯拉盘中股价反转，盘前阶段涨幅一度突破2%，盘中转而下行，最新报412.1美元，跌幅3.12%。周三特斯拉 CEO 埃隆马斯克在社交平台发布自身于加州弗里蒙特工厂 Optimus 人形机器人产线的合照，引发市场对机器人规模化量产进度的热议。不少市场参与者观察到企业近期减少 Optimus 对外公开演示，据此推测量产落地速度快于行业预判。","content":"<html><body><p>金吾财讯 | <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘中股价反转，盘前阶段涨幅一度突破2%，盘中转而下行，最新报412.1美元，跌幅3.12%。消息面上，公司二季度全球整车交付总量 480126 台，对比分析师平均预期 396466 台，超出幅度超 21%，交付规模同比提升 25%。销量增长核心依靠主力走量车型 Model 3、Model Y 支撑，两款车型合计交付 467762 台，同比同样上涨 25%，较市场预估 380699 台高出 22.87%，乘用车终端需求具备较强韧性。周三特斯拉 CEO 埃隆・马斯克在社交平台发布自身于加州弗里蒙特工厂 Optimus 人形机器人产线的合照，引发市场对机器人规模化量产进度的热议。不少市场参与者观察到企业近期减少 Optimus 对外公开演示，据此推测量产落地速度快于行业预判。针对相关乐观猜想，马斯克作出公开回应，Optimus 量产初期爬坡速度将十分缓慢，整机零部件、全套生产工艺均为全新自研，制造逻辑和成熟整车生产线存在显著差异，难以复刻汽车快速大规模量产模式，短期产能释放存在硬性约束。弗里蒙特工厂原本用于 Model S、Model X 旗舰车型生产，原有产线完成改造后成为企业首条人形机器人专属制造基地，现阶段仅开展整机装配、调试及小批量试产，是机器人业务落地的核心载体。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉(TSLA)反转跌3% 二季度交付数据大幅超预期 人形机器人量产节奏不及市场乐观预判</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px 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class=\"title\">\n特斯拉(TSLA)反转跌3% 二季度交付数据大幅超预期 人形机器人量产节奏不及市场乐观预判\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086022552\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a93586c3b023ec6ebfed568990555c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">金吾财讯 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-02 22:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>金吾财讯 | <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘中股价反转，盘前阶段涨幅一度突破2%，盘中转而下行，最新报412.1美元，跌幅3.12%。消息面上，公司二季度全球整车交付总量 480126 台，对比分析师平均预期 396466 台，超出幅度超 21%，交付规模同比提升 25%。销量增长核心依靠主力走量车型 Model 3、Model Y 支撑，两款车型合计交付 467762 台，同比同样上涨 25%，较市场预估 380699 台高出 22.87%，乘用车终端需求具备较强韧性。周三特斯拉 CEO 埃隆・马斯克在社交平台发布自身于加州弗里蒙特工厂 Optimus 人形机器人产线的合照，引发市场对机器人规模化量产进度的热议。不少市场参与者观察到企业近期减少 Optimus 对外公开演示，据此推测量产落地速度快于行业预判。针对相关乐观猜想，马斯克作出公开回应，Optimus 量产初期爬坡速度将十分缓慢，整机零部件、全套生产工艺均为全新自研，制造逻辑和成熟整车生产线存在显著差异，难以复刻汽车快速大规模量产模式，短期产能释放存在硬性约束。弗里蒙特工厂原本用于 Model S、Model X 旗舰车型生产，原有产线完成改造后成为企业首条人形机器人专属制造基地，现阶段仅开展整机装配、调试及小批量试产，是机器人业务落地的核心载体。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.szfiu.com/news/20250107/Mjg1NzQ1OGJhMDJiZWVjMjcxYjFlYjJjMTY3ODIxNTA4Njc=.png","relate_stocks":{"LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU2168564149.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU2168563687.JPY":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (JPYHDG) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AC\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1629891620.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG2\" (H2-HKD) INC","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU2168564065.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND 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带头涨一次不行呀？轮也轮到你了呀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/580443733139912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":580248130572600,"gmtCreate":1782692228968,"gmtModify":1782696954640,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3486352703133754","idStr":"3486352703133754"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COHR\">$COHERENT(COHR)$&nbsp;</a> 到强支撑位了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COHR\">$COHERENT(COHR)$&nbsp;</a> 到强支撑位了","text":"$COHERENT(COHR)$ 到强支撑位了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/580248130572600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":579591904310512,"gmtCreate":1782532090411,"gmtModify":1782533995497,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3486352703133754","idStr":"3486352703133754"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"哈哈，互撕，挺好，苹果真丑陋","listText":"哈哈，互撕，挺好，苹果真丑陋","text":"哈哈，互撕，挺好，苹果真丑陋","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/579591904310512","repostId":"2646539698","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2646539698","kind":"live","pubTimestamp":1782522250,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2646539698?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-27 09:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美光高管怒怼苹果定价模式：芯片成本涨45美元，终端加价250美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2646539698","media":"格隆汇","summary":"社交媒体上海外财经投资类网红账号爆出美光科技高管公开吐槽苹果定价模式：十多年来，苹果长期以5美元采购存储芯片，简单封装后，以99美元的存储升级价卖给消费者，还嘲笑美光想把单价涨到7美元。如今芯片采购价","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">社交媒体上海外财经投资类网红账号爆出美光科技高管公开吐槽苹果定价模式：十多年来，苹果长期以5美元采购存储芯片，简单封装后，以99美元的存储升级价卖给消费者，还嘲笑美光想把单价涨到7美元。如今芯片采购价涨到50美元，苹果直接向消费者加价250美元，把成本压力成倍转嫁给用户。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71d4b1ffd282b1894e409447c24a9e1e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1849\"/><span></span></p></body></html>","source":"live_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美光高管怒怼苹果定价模式：芯片成本涨45美元，终端加价250美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-06-27 09:04 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>社交媒体上海外财经投资类网红账号爆出美光科技高管公开吐槽苹果定价模式：十多年来，苹果长期以5美元采购存储芯片，简单封装后，以99美元的存储升级价卖给消费者，还嘲笑美光想把单价涨到7美元。如今芯片采购价涨到50美元，苹果直接向消费者加价250美元，把成本压力成倍转嫁给用户。</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71d4b1ffd282b1894e409447c24a9e1e","relate_stocks":{"LU2505996509.AUD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU2065171311.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU2420271590.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0096362180.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL FOCUS \"DU\" (USD)","LU2552382215.SGD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2065171402.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (SGD) INC","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR 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今天是这个桥段？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31965a6c2d81a0a0711f9c31b5327b97","width":"887","height":"1182"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/579322959241616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":579294740582792,"gmtCreate":1782459468365,"gmtModify":1782462080256,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3486352703133754","idStr":"3486352703133754"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"玻璃桥呢，玻璃桥技术呢","listText":"玻璃桥呢，玻璃桥技术呢","text":"玻璃桥呢，玻璃桥技术呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/579294740582792","repostId":"1101980779","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101980779","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"个股异动一手消息解读","home_visible":1,"media_name":"行情直击","id":"1059448697","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51943b2858f75e05ca2ebb144b4e626a"},"pubTimestamp":1782440784,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101980779?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-26 10:26","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"异动解读｜Applied Optoelectronics夜盘下跌5.08%，CPO量产延迟预期持续压制光通信板块","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101980779","media":"行情直击","summary":"6月26日，Applied Optoelectronics夜盘下跌5.08%，报131.49美元/股，成交额641.14万美元。尽管英伟达回应称CPO交换机将按计划于下半年启动量产，但摩根士丹利对CPO放量不及预期的判断与之较为接近，市场分歧下多空博弈加剧，该悲观预期持续对高估值光通信板块构成压制。Applied Optoelectronics是光纤网络产品领先供应商，业务聚焦有线电视、光纤入户及数据中心网络市场，是美国本土少数具备自产磷化铟激光器能力的AI光模块厂商。","content":"<p><p>6月26日，Applied Optoelectronics夜盘下跌5.08%，报131.49美元/股，成交额641.14万美元。</p><p>消息面上，此前SemiAnalysis报告指出共封装光学（CPO）大规模商业导入时间可能延迟至2028年甚至2029年，系统级良率可能低至约19.4%，远低于市场对短期快速放量的预期。尽管英伟达回应称CPO交换机将按计划于下半年启动量产，但摩根士丹利对CPO放量不及预期的判断与之较为接近，市场分歧下多空博弈加剧，该悲观预期持续对高估值光通信板块构成压制。当日同板块Lumentum跌3.52%、诺基亚跌3.15%、Ciena科技跌2.31%，板块整体承压。</p><p>Applied Optoelectronics是光纤网络产品领先供应商，业务聚焦有线电视、光纤入户及数据中心网络市场，是美国本土少数具备自产磷化铟激光器能力的AI光模块厂商。</p><p>（以上内容均基于市场公开消息，由程序或算法智能生成，仅作为股价异动提醒，不作为投资建议或交易依据。）</p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>异动解读｜Applied Optoelectronics夜盘下跌5.08%，CPO量产延迟预期持续压制光通信板块</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n异动解读｜Applied Optoelectronics夜盘下跌5.08%，CPO量产延迟预期持续压制光通信板块\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1059448697\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/51943b2858f75e05ca2ebb144b4e626a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">行情直击 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-26 10:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><p>6月26日，Applied Optoelectronics夜盘下跌5.08%，报131.49美元/股，成交额641.14万美元。</p><p>消息面上，此前SemiAnalysis报告指出共封装光学（CPO）大规模商业导入时间可能延迟至2028年甚至2029年，系统级良率可能低至约19.4%，远低于市场对短期快速放量的预期。尽管英伟达回应称CPO交换机将按计划于下半年启动量产，但摩根士丹利对CPO放量不及预期的判断与之较为接近，市场分歧下多空博弈加剧，该悲观预期持续对高估值光通信板块构成压制。当日同板块Lumentum跌3.52%、诺基亚跌3.15%、Ciena科技跌2.31%，板块整体承压。</p><p>Applied Optoelectronics是光纤网络产品领先供应商，业务聚焦有线电视、光纤入户及数据中心网络市场，是美国本土少数具备自产磷化铟激光器能力的AI光模块厂商。</p><p>（以上内容均基于市场公开消息，由程序或算法智能生成，仅作为股价异动提醒，不作为投资建议或交易依据。）</p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAOI":"Applied Optoelectronics Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101980779","content_text":"6月26日，Applied Optoelectronics夜盘下跌5.08%，报131.49美元/股，成交额641.14万美元。消息面上，此前SemiAnalysis报告指出共封装光学（CPO）大规模商业导入时间可能延迟至2028年甚至2029年，系统级良率可能低至约19.4%，远低于市场对短期快速放量的预期。尽管英伟达回应称CPO交换机将按计划于下半年启动量产，但摩根士丹利对CPO放量不及预期的判断与之较为接近，市场分歧下多空博弈加剧，该悲观预期持续对高估值光通信板块构成压制。当日同板块Lumentum跌3.52%、诺基亚跌3.15%、Ciena科技跌2.31%，板块整体承压。Applied 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现在还几个人信英伟达讲的故事？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/399586332020864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4198227008886052","authorId":"4198227008886052","name":"人间花开","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/189395712579e9609e90740b0006cc50","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4198227008886052","idStr":"4198227008886052"},"content":"愿赌服输呗，我也没办法，。在香港刚开了户，买进去149.47","text":"愿赌服输呗，我也没办法，。在香港刚开了户，买进去149.47","html":"愿赌服输呗，我也没办法，。在香港刚开了户，买进去149.47"},{"author":{"id":"4195272735879932","authorId":"4195272735879932","name":"穷不达","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af68781b8c44eade49ee4fce2cecabf8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4195272735879932","idStr":"4195272735879932"},"content":"抱歉 我信，必坚定不移，","text":"抱歉 我信，必坚定不移，","html":"抱歉 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mother.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360428794122312","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":283512686928168,"gmtCreate":1710255918980,"gmtModify":1710255988652,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3486352703133754","idStr":"3486352703133754"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2406(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a>为什么主连和纳斯达克指数第二天的值差了200-300点，不是应该每天的收盘值是相同的吗？一直没搞明白这个","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2406(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a>为什么主连和纳斯达克指数第二天的值差了200-300点，不是应该每天的收盘值是相同的吗？一直没搞明白这个","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2406(NQmain)$ 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