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Vinsa8

Vinsa8

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IP属地：湖北

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0勋章

00:05

$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ 川宝最近咋不出来喊话了

07-20 23:57

$TTM科技(TTMI)$ 睡觉去了，明天早上起来+10％

07-20 23:39

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 全球AI科技的总龙头，只有你才能号令天下

07-20 23:18

$TTM科技(TTMI)$ 市场快忘记你了，还不表现？

07-20 23:14

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 大哥没大哥样，大家都快忘记你了

07-20 21:27

$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ 科技还是得看美国

07-16

$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ 熊了

07-15

$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ 咋的？跟缅A绑定了？

07-13

资金是谁

期权大单 | 英伟达上周五大涨超4%，大额熊市看涨价差现身，资金预期本周难破新高？

07-13

$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ 晚上又跟你大A爸爸？

07-13

$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ 没实力

07-09

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 元神归位？semi个印度刊物机构，要被收拾了

07-08

$Coherent(COHR)$ 美伊战争不影响你的收入和利润呀，一季度财报已经说明一切了

07-08

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 美伊战争对你丝毫不影响呀，345一直在打，影响你的业绩和利润了吗？

07-08

$美光科技(MU)$ 买个SSD记录下美国的罪行，保留千年，罄竹难书，利好存储啊

07-08

$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ 继续砸，继续砸啊

07-07

semi当了表字，还要立牌坊

“我们没有看空英伟达”！SemiAnalysis又发小作文：“AI央行”英伟达撬动7万亿债务雪球

07-07

$闪迪(SNDK)$ 三星一个季度赚了吗4000亿rmb啊，这是什么概念

07-02

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ 大空头又在做空科技，大家看看年线，今年6个月达子暴涨了4％，特斯拉微跌了11％，这么巨大的泡沫！！！

07-02

$苹果(AAPL)$ 涨价的破东西居然还能涨

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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全球AI科技的总龙头，只有你才能号令天下","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/587901035529136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":587901306368160,"gmtCreate":1784560690438,"gmtModify":1784562029772,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486352703133754","authorIdStr":"3486352703133754"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTMI\">$TTM科技(TTMI)$ </a> 市场快忘记你了，还不表现？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTMI\">$TTM科技(TTMI)$ </a> 市场快忘记你了，还不表现？","text":"$TTM科技(TTMI)$ 市场快忘记你了，还不表现？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/587901306368160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":587900357267680,"gmtCreate":1784560460386,"gmtModify":1784562027471,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486352703133754","authorIdStr":"3486352703133754"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 大哥没大哥样，大家都快忘记你了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 大哥没大哥样，大家都快忘记你了","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 大哥没大哥样，大家都快忘记你了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/587900357267680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":98,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":587873995477016,"gmtCreate":1784554021802,"gmtModify":1784555455035,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486352703133754","authorIdStr":"3486352703133754"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a> 科技还是得看美国","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a> 科技还是得看美国","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ 科技还是得看美国","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/587873995477016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":68,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":586412616549488,"gmtCreate":1784198582418,"gmtModify":1784199175591,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486352703133754","authorIdStr":"3486352703133754"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a> 熊了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a> 熊了","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ 熊了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/586412616549488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":586121173770808,"gmtCreate":1784127504224,"gmtModify":1784132370434,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486352703133754","authorIdStr":"3486352703133754"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a> 咋的？跟缅A绑定了？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a> 咋的？跟缅A绑定了？","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ 咋的？跟缅A绑定了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/586121173770808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":96,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":585314321260544,"gmtCreate":1783928256841,"gmtModify":1783929627176,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486352703133754","authorIdStr":"3486352703133754"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"资金是谁","listText":"资金是谁","text":"资金是谁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/585314321260544","repostId":"1137188544","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1137188544","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"值得关注的期权大单","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权大单","id":"1080924423","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/165a4ccff157a147c5c40d359f9dc408"},"pubTimestamp":1783925473,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137188544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-13 14:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"期权大单 | 英伟达上周五大涨超4%，大额熊市看涨价差现身，资金预期本周难破新高？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137188544","media":"期权大单","summary":"美股期权市场总成交量达6097.54万张，看涨期权占比61%。英伟达隔夜涨超4%，期权成交549.87万张，其中7月10日到期、行权价210美元的看涨期权成交近88万张，成为当日最活跃合约。特斯拉机器人量产预期升温，410美元看涨期权成交逾41万张；Meta隔夜涨近6%，670美元看涨期权成交超过7万张。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上周五，期权市场总成交量6097.54万张合约，高于90日均量；英伟达当日成交549.87万张，看涨期权占比71.9%；特斯拉当日成交345.06万张，看涨期权占比63.5%，隐含波动率达54.95%&gt;&gt;</p></blockquote><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\">一、市场概览</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周一（7月13日），美股三大指数集体收涨，道指涨0.29%，纳指涨0.29%，标普500指数涨0.42%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/85084501534d5ec558d6b7f1fa4306d9\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1132\" tg-height=\"532\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">期权市场总成交量6097.54万张合约，高于90日均量（6408.62万张合约），其中看涨期权占比61%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c7cb656d5d4db1e875b1a5ef729f41d7\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"2724\" tg-height=\"656\"/><span></span></p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\">二、期权成交总量TOP10</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b050c841de660563cdbd186290413eb1\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1320\" tg-height=\"2284\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>隔夜涨超4%，</strong>期权合约成交549.87万张。其中，看涨期权成交395.51万张，占比约71.9%，7月10日到期、行权价210美元的看涨期权交易最为活跃，共成交879,761张合约。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b7109efa7741265ef4d6c990669e957\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"422\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">消息方面：人工智能搜索公司Perplexity确认计划采用英伟达新推出的Vera中央处理器，英伟达正借此进一步拓展GPU以外的计算芯片市场。公司预计Vera CPU在本财年结束前可带来约200亿美元销售额，目前OpenAI、Anthropic及甲骨文也已计划采用相关产品。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一笔规模达520.80万美元的熊市看涨价差则体现了相反方向的压制性布局，交易者卖出2026-07-17到期的210.0 CALL共9958张，并买入同到期的215.0 CALL共9958张，整体属于净收款型组合。以当前股价210.96美元衡量，卖出的210.0 CALL处于实值附近，买入的215.0 CALL则为虚值，这是一种典型的上方封顶式看空/收租策略。其策略意图并非激进押注大跌，而更像是判断NVDA后续上行空间有限，股价在到期前难以有效突破更高区间，因此通过卖出近价CALL收取权利金，并用更高行权价CALL控制极端风险，反映出偏空且偏震荡的交易预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>隔夜涨0.3%，</strong>期权合约成交345.06万张。看涨期权成交219.24万张，占比约63.5%。7月10日到期、行权价410美元的看涨期权交易量特别高，共有413,016张合约成交。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2a3490538c7da2ad2169fdc184d0db0f\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1796\" tg-height=\"424\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">消息方面：据多位特斯拉供应链人士透露，公司近期已向供应商下发擎天柱（Optimus）机器人零部件采购指引，要求供应商在今年9月前将产能提升至每周1000台，并在年底进一步提高至每周2000至2500台。接近供应商的人士表示，特斯拉通常会提前约两个月下达订单，部分供应商已收到8月数百台零部件的具体订单。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按照这一产能安排估算，相关供应商到年底或将具备每年供应约10万套Optimus零部件的能力。报道还称，马斯克已在6月底的一次高管会议上评审并通过Optimus最新版本，意味着Gen 3版本正从研发测试阶段转向量产准备。量产节奏加快的预期带动资金继续交易特斯拉机器人业务，近到期看涨期权成交明显活跃。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\">三、异动观察</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ddf6d8a54828bc95fa010edf7fec9c42\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1182\" tg-height=\"650\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms, Inc.</a>隔夜涨近6%，</strong>期权合约成交163.09万张。其中，看涨期权成交109.68万张，占比67.2%。7月10日到期、行权价670美元的看涨期权交易量特别高，共有72,952张合约成交。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9610939da0b9c256e7ca6c370d27aa8e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1786\" tg-height=\"424\"/><span></span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权大单 | 英伟达上周五大涨超4%，大额熊市看涨价差现身，资金预期本周难破新高？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权大单 | 英伟达上周五大涨超4%，大额熊市看涨价差现身，资金预期本周难破新高？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1080924423\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/165a4ccff157a147c5c40d359f9dc408);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权大单 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-13 14:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上周五，期权市场总成交量6097.54万张合约，高于90日均量；英伟达当日成交549.87万张，看涨期权占比71.9%；特斯拉当日成交345.06万张，看涨期权占比63.5%，隐含波动率达54.95%&gt;&gt;</p></blockquote><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\">一、市场概览</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周一（7月13日），美股三大指数集体收涨，道指涨0.29%，纳指涨0.29%，标普500指数涨0.42%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/85084501534d5ec558d6b7f1fa4306d9\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1132\" tg-height=\"532\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">期权市场总成交量6097.54万张合约，高于90日均量（6408.62万张合约），其中看涨期权占比61%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c7cb656d5d4db1e875b1a5ef729f41d7\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"2724\" tg-height=\"656\"/><span></span></p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\">二、期权成交总量TOP10</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b050c841de660563cdbd186290413eb1\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1320\" tg-height=\"2284\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>隔夜涨超4%，</strong>期权合约成交549.87万张。其中，看涨期权成交395.51万张，占比约71.9%，7月10日到期、行权价210美元的看涨期权交易最为活跃，共成交879,761张合约。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b7109efa7741265ef4d6c990669e957\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"422\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">消息方面：人工智能搜索公司Perplexity确认计划采用英伟达新推出的Vera中央处理器，英伟达正借此进一步拓展GPU以外的计算芯片市场。公司预计Vera CPU在本财年结束前可带来约200亿美元销售额，目前OpenAI、Anthropic及甲骨文也已计划采用相关产品。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一笔规模达520.80万美元的熊市看涨价差则体现了相反方向的压制性布局，交易者卖出2026-07-17到期的210.0 CALL共9958张，并买入同到期的215.0 CALL共9958张，整体属于净收款型组合。以当前股价210.96美元衡量，卖出的210.0 CALL处于实值附近，买入的215.0 CALL则为虚值，这是一种典型的上方封顶式看空/收租策略。其策略意图并非激进押注大跌，而更像是判断NVDA后续上行空间有限，股价在到期前难以有效突破更高区间，因此通过卖出近价CALL收取权利金，并用更高行权价CALL控制极端风险，反映出偏空且偏震荡的交易预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>隔夜涨0.3%，</strong>期权合约成交345.06万张。看涨期权成交219.24万张，占比约63.5%。7月10日到期、行权价410美元的看涨期权交易量特别高，共有413,016张合约成交。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2a3490538c7da2ad2169fdc184d0db0f\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1796\" tg-height=\"424\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">消息方面：据多位特斯拉供应链人士透露，公司近期已向供应商下发擎天柱（Optimus）机器人零部件采购指引，要求供应商在今年9月前将产能提升至每周1000台，并在年底进一步提高至每周2000至2500台。接近供应商的人士表示，特斯拉通常会提前约两个月下达订单，部分供应商已收到8月数百台零部件的具体订单。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按照这一产能安排估算，相关供应商到年底或将具备每年供应约10万套Optimus零部件的能力。报道还称，马斯克已在6月底的一次高管会议上评审并通过Optimus最新版本，意味着Gen 3版本正从研发测试阶段转向量产准备。量产节奏加快的预期带动资金继续交易特斯拉机器人业务，近到期看涨期权成交明显活跃。</p><h3 style=\"text-align: left;\">三、异动观察</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ddf6d8a54828bc95fa010edf7fec9c42\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1182\" tg-height=\"650\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms, Inc.</a>隔夜涨近6%，</strong>期权合约成交163.09万张。其中，看涨期权成交109.68万张，占比67.2%。7月10日到期、行权价670美元的看涨期权交易量特别高，共有72,952张合约成交。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9610939da0b9c256e7ca6c370d27aa8e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1786\" tg-height=\"424\"/><span></span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"TSYY":"收益增强TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","FBL":"2倍做多META ETF-GraniteShares","METD":"1倍做空META ETF-Direxion","NVDX":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-T-Rex","TSLI":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-ProShares","NVDA":"英伟达","TLA":"GraniteShares Autocallable TSLA ETF","07388":"XI二南英伟","TSLG":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","07766":"南方两倍做多特斯拉","NVDY":"NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","DIPS":"做空NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","NVD":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","TSLP":"TSLA收益溢价策略ETF-Kurv","ANV":"GraniteShares Autocallable NVDA ETF","NVDO":"2倍上限加速NVDA ETF-Leverage Shares","TESL":"Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF","NVYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST NVDA ETF","NVDB":"ProShares Ultra NVDA ETF","METU":"2倍做多META ETF-Direxion","TSLQ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr","NVII":"Rex NVDA Growth & Income ETF","07788":"南方两倍做多英伟达","TEST":"YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF","NVDD":"1倍做空NVDA ETF-Direxion","TSLR":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","TSLO":"2倍上限加速TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","METW":"Roundhill META WeeklyPay™ ETF","NVDG":"2倍做多NVDA ETF- Leverage Shares","TSLA":"特斯拉","TSLS":"1倍做空TSLA ETF-Direxion","NVDL":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","TSLT":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-T-Rex","09766":"南方两倍做多特斯拉-U","FBY":"META期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","NVDQ":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-T-Rex","TSLW":"TSLA周配息ETF-Roundhill","CRSH":"做空TSLA 期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","TSII":"REX TSLA Growth & Income ETF","FBYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST META ETF","NVDS":"1.5倍做空NVDA ETF-Tradr","09366":"XI二南特斯-U","TSLY":"TSLA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","TSDD":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","NVDU":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-Direxion","TSL":"1.25倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","TSLZ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-T-Rex","07366":"XI二南特斯","NVDW":"NVDA周配息ETF-Roundhill"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137188544","content_text":"上周五，期权市场总成交量6097.54万张合约，高于90日均量；英伟达当日成交549.87万张，看涨期权占比71.9%；特斯拉当日成交345.06万张，看涨期权占比63.5%，隐含波动率达54.95%>>一、市场概览周一（7月13日），美股三大指数集体收涨，道指涨0.29%，纳指涨0.29%，标普500指数涨0.42%。期权市场总成交量6097.54万张合约，高于90日均量（6408.62万张合约），其中看涨期权占比61%。二、期权成交总量TOP10英伟达隔夜涨超4%，期权合约成交549.87万张。其中，看涨期权成交395.51万张，占比约71.9%，7月10日到期、行权价210美元的看涨期权交易最为活跃，共成交879,761张合约。消息方面：人工智能搜索公司Perplexity确认计划采用英伟达新推出的Vera中央处理器，英伟达正借此进一步拓展GPU以外的计算芯片市场。公司预计Vera CPU在本财年结束前可带来约200亿美元销售额，目前OpenAI、Anthropic及甲骨文也已计划采用相关产品。一笔规模达520.80万美元的熊市看涨价差则体现了相反方向的压制性布局，交易者卖出2026-07-17到期的210.0 CALL共9958张，并买入同到期的215.0 CALL共9958张，整体属于净收款型组合。以当前股价210.96美元衡量，卖出的210.0 CALL处于实值附近，买入的215.0 CALL则为虚值，这是一种典型的上方封顶式看空/收租策略。其策略意图并非激进押注大跌，而更像是判断NVDA后续上行空间有限，股价在到期前难以有效突破更高区间，因此通过卖出近价CALL收取权利金，并用更高行权价CALL控制极端风险，反映出偏空且偏震荡的交易预期。特斯拉隔夜涨0.3%，期权合约成交345.06万张。看涨期权成交219.24万张，占比约63.5%。7月10日到期、行权价410美元的看涨期权交易量特别高，共有413,016张合约成交。消息方面：据多位特斯拉供应链人士透露，公司近期已向供应商下发擎天柱（Optimus）机器人零部件采购指引，要求供应商在今年9月前将产能提升至每周1000台，并在年底进一步提高至每周2000至2500台。接近供应商的人士表示，特斯拉通常会提前约两个月下达订单，部分供应商已收到8月数百台零部件的具体订单。按照这一产能安排估算，相关供应商到年底或将具备每年供应约10万套Optimus零部件的能力。报道还称，马斯克已在6月底的一次高管会议上评审并通过Optimus最新版本，意味着Gen 3版本正从研发测试阶段转向量产准备。量产节奏加快的预期带动资金继续交易特斯拉机器人业务，近到期看涨期权成交明显活跃。三、异动观察Meta Platforms, 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买个SSD记录下美国的罪行，保留千年，罄竹难书，利好存储啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/583642255689080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":583616417515056,"gmtCreate":1783515987518,"gmtModify":1783516151857,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486352703133754","authorIdStr":"3486352703133754"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a> 继续砸，继续砸啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a> 继续砸，继续砸啊","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ 继续砸，继续砸啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/583616417515056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":583224583733616,"gmtCreate":1783420243604,"gmtModify":1783420471978,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3486352703133754","authorIdStr":"3486352703133754"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"semi当了表字，还要立牌坊","listText":"semi当了表字，还要立牌坊","text":"semi当了表字，还要立牌坊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/583224583733616","repostId":"2649602081","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2649602081","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1783415617,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2649602081?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-07 17:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“我们没有看空英伟达”！SemiAnalysis又发小作文：“AI央行”英伟达撬动7万亿债务雪球","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2649602081","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"昨天刚爆料英伟达“Kyber机架”项目延迟，今天SemiAnalysis又甩出重磅预测：2029年AI债务将突破7万亿美元。英伟达正以自己“AA级”信用为这笔天量融资兜底，化身“AI央行”。而这家被网友质疑“发完看空报告就发ETF”的机构回应：“我们没有看空英伟达，只是在捕捉技术细节。”——争议越大，关注越大。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月6日，知名半导体研究机构SemiAnalysis在X平台连发六条推文，爆料<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>Kyber NVL144机架因PCB中板制造难题延迟超12个月。亚洲AI硬件供应链应声大跌。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达随后回应称“路线图未变”，但未披露具体进度细节。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">争议未平。7月7日，SemiAnalysis又甩出一份付费长文，将“矛头”对准英伟达。但这一次他不再扮演“看空者”角色。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysi预计：<strong>到2029年，全球AI债务融资规模将突破7万亿美元。7万亿美元是什么概念？它将仅次于美国住房抵押贷款市场（约13万亿美元），</strong>成为全球第二大资产支持债务市场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达在其中的角色是什么？SemiAnalysi披露了英伟达一项战略布局——<strong>“后盾计划”（backstop）。英伟达正用自己的AA/Aa2投资级信用评级，为AI算力租赁商提供最低收入保证，以此撬动银行放贷。换句话说，英伟达正在充当整个AI生态的最终贷款人和保险商，把大量销售记在账上同时把下游需求不足的风险部分扛在自己身上。</strong>SemiAnalysis将英伟达比作 <strong>“AI领域的中央银行” 。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/91001fdd3e6ad3b4ff1c05782d393b0e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"245\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于X平台上围绕SemiAnalysis是否“看空英伟达”的讨论。该机构说：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>自己没有发布关于英伟达股票的正面或负面观点，只是在准确捕捉供应链和技术细节，市场可以自行交易。</strong></p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d7305a726372e80f378ff9971d349418\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"599\" tg-height=\"359\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">AI债务雪球：2029年破7万亿，直逼美国房贷市场</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis认为，AI基础设施建设正在形成一个数万亿美元级别的信贷市场。到2029年，AI相关未偿债务可能达到约7.1万亿美元，规模将超过除美国按揭融资市场之外的其他美国资产支持债务市场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这部分债务主要来自两类资本开支。一类是AI IT资本开支，包括GPU、网络、存储和配套CPU；另一类是AI数据中心资本开支，包括承载这些GPU所需的机房、电力和制冷等基础设施。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4c8dcdeecba2f817ca08947045f7b3fc\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"429\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去，Google、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>、Microsoft、Oracle等云巨头主要依靠自身现金流建设AI集群。但过去一年，Oracle、Meta，甚至Google开始更多使用债务。随着项目规模继续扩大，市场约束不再只是能否拿到GPU，也不是单纯能否找到机房，而是能否借到足够便宜、足够长期的钱。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis给出的结论是，AI资本开支的融资方式正在改变。云巨头资产负债表并非无限，如果所有AI集群都依赖少数投资级云厂商背书，新增项目迟早会遇到信用瓶颈。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">“三位一体”困局：资本、客户和数据中心缺一不可</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis将AI项目融资拆解为“三位一体”：资本、包销合同和数据中心。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第一是资本。贷款人通常需要看到投资级云厂商的长期take-or-pay合同，或类似信用担保，才愿意放款。换言之，贷款人真正看重的不是Neocloud本身信用，而是背后客户的信用。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第二是包销。Neocloud要拿到客户，往往需要先证明自己能够支付GPU订金并锁定设备。但要拿到股权资金，又需要先证明自己有客户和贷款。这使项目在早期很容易陷入循环。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第三是数据中心。Neocloud要么拿着客户合同和融资去说服数据中心运营商出租容量，要么自己建设数据中心。后者资金压力更大，周期也更长。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这套模式使市场被锁在“5年期、云巨头背书”的模板里。问题是，<strong>许多VC支持的AI初创公司和推理服务商需要的是短周期、大规模算力，而不是5年长期合同。推理服务商尤其不愿承担长期价格和需求风险，很多情况下宁愿放弃算力，也不愿签超过1年的租约。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">“AI央行”英伟达：用AA级信用撬动整个市场</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英伟达提出“后盾计划”，切入这个融资缺口。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据SemiAnalysis，英伟达向Neocloud提供GPU租赁收入兜底。如果第三方客户需求不足，英伟达承诺按预设价格购买算力；如果Neocloud以更高价格出租算力，英伟达则分享一部分超额收入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这类安排通常为6年期，按事先约定的价格曲线，对底层GPU容量提供最低收入保证。Neocloud仍可把算力租给任何客户，也可以提供更灵活的租期。只有当市场需求不足、无法按市场价格出租时，才会触发英伟达兜底。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ccc5e161a0ba93d48704dfb9fd932bb0\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"489\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这就是“AI央行”比喻的来源。英伟达并非真的发行货币，而是在AI算力信用体系中扮演类似最后买方和信用背书人的角色。贷款人可以基于英伟达AA/Aa2级别信用来评估项目最差情景，从而更愿意放款。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对英伟达而言，这有助于扩大GPU买方基础。如果市场只能依赖少数超大云厂商签5年包销合同，GPU需求很快会撞上融资约束；而这些云厂商还在用自研芯片对冲英伟达系统。扶持Neocloud和更多企业客户，等于为GPU需求打开新的融资通道。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">“兜底计划”结构拆解：英伟达赚多少，NeoCloud赚多少</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis强调，Neocloud不是免费使用英伟达信用。兜底结构下，<strong>Neocloud要牺牲一部分上行收益，以换取项目可融资性。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在一个示例价格曲线中，6年平均兜底价格为每GPU每小时2.36美元。假设GB300第一年1年期租赁价格为每小时6.75美元，第一年兜底价为每小时3.68美元，客户价格与兜底价之间的差额为3.07美元。若英伟达拿走超出兜底价部分的40%，英伟达获得1.23美元，Neocloud获得1.84美元，Neocloud第一年实际收入为每小时5.52美元，低于无兜底时的6.75美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/647f8c012fe4faafa5830da891a9ec8b\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"785\" tg-height=\"384\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>六年下来，在这一情景中，英伟达平均抽成约18%。Neocloud的项目IRR也会下降。有英伟达兜底且以1年期短租为主的情景下，项目IRR为25.4%；如果没有兜底但仍能顺利融资并出租，IRR可达40.7%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">关键在最差情景。如果需求不足，Neocloud只能把算力租给英伟达，项目回报可能接近零，甚至略为负数。贷款人并不要求最差情况下项目赚钱，只要求最差情况下仍能还债。也正因此，债务能否成立，最终越来越取决于英伟达兜底是否可靠。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这也是投资者应关注的核心：英伟达的安排短期有助于推动GPU销售和Neocloud扩张，但如果算力需求低于预期，收入缺口将由英伟达承接。债务未必直接记在英伟达账上，但融资模型的安全垫正在向英伟达信用集中。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">GPU融资定价，本质上看谁在背书</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis称，目前GPU融资市场的定价，主要不是看Neocloud自身信用，而是看谁签了长期包销合同。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave</a>是一个参照。其5年期无担保债券收益率约10%；但由Meta背书的85亿美元DDTL 4.0延迟提款定期贷款中，固定利率部分成本约5.9%，只比Meta 5年期债券收益率约5.0%高90个基点。这个90个基点，大致体现了市场给CoreWeave执行风险的定价。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/87070f82f896f12e537b70fa4d67ffec\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"590\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果Neocloud脱离长期云厂商包销，融资成本会明显升高。对头部Neocloud来说，无担保融资可能需要支付约10%的利率，比有背书融资高约4个百分点。在70%至80%的贷款价值比下，融资成本从5.62%升至10%，税前利润率会从14.8%降至5.4%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达兜底会把定价放在两者之间：高于当前云厂商背书交易约5.9%的总收益率，低于CoreWeave无担保债券约10%的收益率。银行最看重的是偿债覆盖率DSCR。对于有英伟达兜底的项目，贷款规模通常按兜底被触发的情景测算，前几年DSCR至少要达到1.3倍，对应贷款价值比通常为70%至80%。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">公开项目在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002540\">亚太</a>放大，兜底模式开始落地</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">目前已公开的英伟达兜底项目集中在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002284\">亚太</a>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第一个是澳大利亚SharonAI的72MW AI工厂。该项目于2026年6月公布，计划在6年期兜底下扩展至最多4万颗GB300。SharonAI披露的总兜底价值为48.8亿美元，折算六年平均底价约为每GPU每小时2.33美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一个是Firmus在印尼巴淡岛的360MW AI集群，可能位于DayOne在Kabil Industrial Tech Park的设施中。该项目于2026年6月29日公布，显示英伟达兜底正在进入更大规模。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Firmus预计该项目六年客户收入为250亿至300亿美元，目标客户包括AI原生公司、企业客户和推理服务商，并提供不同租期。不过，在部署GPU前，Firmus仍需确定数据中心提供方，或继续自建。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis还指出，英伟达并非唯一使用兜底安排的GPU厂商。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>去年已经向AWS、OCI、DigitalOcean、Vultr、Tensorwave、Crusoe等客户提供过类似安排：客户购买更多AMD GPU，如果Neocloud无法完全出售容量，AMD愿意以长期合同形式租回一部分，用于内部软件开发。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis否认看空，但市场对其信号更加敏感</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这篇文章发布之际，SemiAnalysis本身也处在争议中。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月6日上午，SemiAnalysis曾在X平台发布连续推文，称英伟达Kyber NVL144机架架构遭遇重大延迟，推迟超过12个月至2028年。该消息在盘前引发关注，并导致日本、韩国及中国台湾地区多只AI硬件供应链股票下跌。英伟达随后回应称，其产品路线图并未改变，否认核心进度受影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这使SemiAnalysis的后续文章更容易被市场解读为看空或看多英伟达。对此，SemiAnalysis在X回应称，<strong>自己没有发布关于英伟达股票的正面或负面观点，只是分享公司供应链和技术细节。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Crackerjack Finance则反驳了“看空”解读，称SemiAnalysis图表显示下半年实际数据比市场预期高20%，并据此推导出下一年每股收益约15美元，股价应在300至400美元。THE Grand Poobah则评论称，“三方循环融资似乎已经不够了”，指向市场对融资结构复杂化的担忧。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">问题在于，AI相关资产已历经多年上涨，估值与预期均处高位。任何供应链风险信号或融资结构变化，都会被迅速放大。SemiAnalysis的澄清可以说明其并未直接给出股票观点，但在Kyber NVL144风波之后，其供应链爆料的市场影响力与公信力争议将继续并存。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对投资者而言，这次“长文”的真正含义是：AI竞争已经不只是“谁有GPU”，而是“谁能把GPU、债务、客户合同和数据中心同时拼起来”。<strong>英伟达的兜底机制可能继续放大GPU需求，也可能让AI债务周期的尾部压力更多集中到英伟达自身信用上。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“我们没有看空英伟达”！SemiAnalysis又发小作文：“AI央行”英伟达撬动7万亿债务雪球</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“我们没有看空英伟达”！SemiAnalysis又发小作文：“AI央行”英伟达撬动7万亿债务雪球\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-07 17:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月6日，知名半导体研究机构SemiAnalysis在X平台连发六条推文，爆料<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>Kyber NVL144机架因PCB中板制造难题延迟超12个月。亚洲AI硬件供应链应声大跌。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达随后回应称“路线图未变”，但未披露具体进度细节。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">争议未平。7月7日，SemiAnalysis又甩出一份付费长文，将“矛头”对准英伟达。但这一次他不再扮演“看空者”角色。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysi预计：<strong>到2029年，全球AI债务融资规模将突破7万亿美元。7万亿美元是什么概念？它将仅次于美国住房抵押贷款市场（约13万亿美元），</strong>成为全球第二大资产支持债务市场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达在其中的角色是什么？SemiAnalysi披露了英伟达一项战略布局——<strong>“后盾计划”（backstop）。英伟达正用自己的AA/Aa2投资级信用评级，为AI算力租赁商提供最低收入保证，以此撬动银行放贷。换句话说，英伟达正在充当整个AI生态的最终贷款人和保险商，把大量销售记在账上同时把下游需求不足的风险部分扛在自己身上。</strong>SemiAnalysis将英伟达比作 <strong>“AI领域的中央银行” 。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/91001fdd3e6ad3b4ff1c05782d393b0e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"245\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于X平台上围绕SemiAnalysis是否“看空英伟达”的讨论。该机构说：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>自己没有发布关于英伟达股票的正面或负面观点，只是在准确捕捉供应链和技术细节，市场可以自行交易。</strong></p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d7305a726372e80f378ff9971d349418\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"599\" tg-height=\"359\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">AI债务雪球：2029年破7万亿，直逼美国房贷市场</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis认为，AI基础设施建设正在形成一个数万亿美元级别的信贷市场。到2029年，AI相关未偿债务可能达到约7.1万亿美元，规模将超过除美国按揭融资市场之外的其他美国资产支持债务市场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这部分债务主要来自两类资本开支。一类是AI IT资本开支，包括GPU、网络、存储和配套CPU；另一类是AI数据中心资本开支，包括承载这些GPU所需的机房、电力和制冷等基础设施。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4c8dcdeecba2f817ca08947045f7b3fc\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"429\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去，Google、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>、Microsoft、Oracle等云巨头主要依靠自身现金流建设AI集群。但过去一年，Oracle、Meta，甚至Google开始更多使用债务。随着项目规模继续扩大，市场约束不再只是能否拿到GPU，也不是单纯能否找到机房，而是能否借到足够便宜、足够长期的钱。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis给出的结论是，AI资本开支的融资方式正在改变。云巨头资产负债表并非无限，如果所有AI集群都依赖少数投资级云厂商背书，新增项目迟早会遇到信用瓶颈。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">“三位一体”困局：资本、客户和数据中心缺一不可</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis将AI项目融资拆解为“三位一体”：资本、包销合同和数据中心。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第一是资本。贷款人通常需要看到投资级云厂商的长期take-or-pay合同，或类似信用担保，才愿意放款。换言之，贷款人真正看重的不是Neocloud本身信用，而是背后客户的信用。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第二是包销。Neocloud要拿到客户，往往需要先证明自己能够支付GPU订金并锁定设备。但要拿到股权资金，又需要先证明自己有客户和贷款。这使项目在早期很容易陷入循环。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第三是数据中心。Neocloud要么拿着客户合同和融资去说服数据中心运营商出租容量，要么自己建设数据中心。后者资金压力更大，周期也更长。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这套模式使市场被锁在“5年期、云巨头背书”的模板里。问题是，<strong>许多VC支持的AI初创公司和推理服务商需要的是短周期、大规模算力，而不是5年长期合同。推理服务商尤其不愿承担长期价格和需求风险，很多情况下宁愿放弃算力，也不愿签超过1年的租约。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">“AI央行”英伟达：用AA级信用撬动整个市场</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英伟达提出“后盾计划”，切入这个融资缺口。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据SemiAnalysis，英伟达向Neocloud提供GPU租赁收入兜底。如果第三方客户需求不足，英伟达承诺按预设价格购买算力；如果Neocloud以更高价格出租算力，英伟达则分享一部分超额收入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这类安排通常为6年期，按事先约定的价格曲线，对底层GPU容量提供最低收入保证。Neocloud仍可把算力租给任何客户，也可以提供更灵活的租期。只有当市场需求不足、无法按市场价格出租时，才会触发英伟达兜底。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ccc5e161a0ba93d48704dfb9fd932bb0\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"489\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这就是“AI央行”比喻的来源。英伟达并非真的发行货币，而是在AI算力信用体系中扮演类似最后买方和信用背书人的角色。贷款人可以基于英伟达AA/Aa2级别信用来评估项目最差情景，从而更愿意放款。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对英伟达而言，这有助于扩大GPU买方基础。如果市场只能依赖少数超大云厂商签5年包销合同，GPU需求很快会撞上融资约束；而这些云厂商还在用自研芯片对冲英伟达系统。扶持Neocloud和更多企业客户，等于为GPU需求打开新的融资通道。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">“兜底计划”结构拆解：英伟达赚多少，NeoCloud赚多少</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis强调，Neocloud不是免费使用英伟达信用。兜底结构下，<strong>Neocloud要牺牲一部分上行收益，以换取项目可融资性。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在一个示例价格曲线中，6年平均兜底价格为每GPU每小时2.36美元。假设GB300第一年1年期租赁价格为每小时6.75美元，第一年兜底价为每小时3.68美元，客户价格与兜底价之间的差额为3.07美元。若英伟达拿走超出兜底价部分的40%，英伟达获得1.23美元，Neocloud获得1.84美元，Neocloud第一年实际收入为每小时5.52美元，低于无兜底时的6.75美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/647f8c012fe4faafa5830da891a9ec8b\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"785\" tg-height=\"384\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>六年下来，在这一情景中，英伟达平均抽成约18%。Neocloud的项目IRR也会下降。有英伟达兜底且以1年期短租为主的情景下，项目IRR为25.4%；如果没有兜底但仍能顺利融资并出租，IRR可达40.7%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">关键在最差情景。如果需求不足，Neocloud只能把算力租给英伟达，项目回报可能接近零，甚至略为负数。贷款人并不要求最差情况下项目赚钱，只要求最差情况下仍能还债。也正因此，债务能否成立，最终越来越取决于英伟达兜底是否可靠。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这也是投资者应关注的核心：英伟达的安排短期有助于推动GPU销售和Neocloud扩张，但如果算力需求低于预期，收入缺口将由英伟达承接。债务未必直接记在英伟达账上，但融资模型的安全垫正在向英伟达信用集中。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">GPU融资定价，本质上看谁在背书</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis称，目前GPU融资市场的定价，主要不是看Neocloud自身信用，而是看谁签了长期包销合同。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave</a>是一个参照。其5年期无担保债券收益率约10%；但由Meta背书的85亿美元DDTL 4.0延迟提款定期贷款中，固定利率部分成本约5.9%，只比Meta 5年期债券收益率约5.0%高90个基点。这个90个基点，大致体现了市场给CoreWeave执行风险的定价。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/87070f82f896f12e537b70fa4d67ffec\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"590\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果Neocloud脱离长期云厂商包销，融资成本会明显升高。对头部Neocloud来说，无担保融资可能需要支付约10%的利率，比有背书融资高约4个百分点。在70%至80%的贷款价值比下，融资成本从5.62%升至10%，税前利润率会从14.8%降至5.4%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达兜底会把定价放在两者之间：高于当前云厂商背书交易约5.9%的总收益率，低于CoreWeave无担保债券约10%的收益率。银行最看重的是偿债覆盖率DSCR。对于有英伟达兜底的项目，贷款规模通常按兜底被触发的情景测算，前几年DSCR至少要达到1.3倍，对应贷款价值比通常为70%至80%。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">公开项目在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002540\">亚太</a>放大，兜底模式开始落地</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">目前已公开的英伟达兜底项目集中在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002284\">亚太</a>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第一个是澳大利亚SharonAI的72MW AI工厂。该项目于2026年6月公布，计划在6年期兜底下扩展至最多4万颗GB300。SharonAI披露的总兜底价值为48.8亿美元，折算六年平均底价约为每GPU每小时2.33美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一个是Firmus在印尼巴淡岛的360MW AI集群，可能位于DayOne在Kabil Industrial Tech Park的设施中。该项目于2026年6月29日公布，显示英伟达兜底正在进入更大规模。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Firmus预计该项目六年客户收入为250亿至300亿美元，目标客户包括AI原生公司、企业客户和推理服务商，并提供不同租期。不过，在部署GPU前，Firmus仍需确定数据中心提供方，或继续自建。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis还指出，英伟达并非唯一使用兜底安排的GPU厂商。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>去年已经向AWS、OCI、DigitalOcean、Vultr、Tensorwave、Crusoe等客户提供过类似安排：客户购买更多AMD GPU，如果Neocloud无法完全出售容量，AMD愿意以长期合同形式租回一部分，用于内部软件开发。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">SemiAnalysis否认看空，但市场对其信号更加敏感</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这篇文章发布之际，SemiAnalysis本身也处在争议中。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月6日上午，SemiAnalysis曾在X平台发布连续推文，称英伟达Kyber NVL144机架架构遭遇重大延迟，推迟超过12个月至2028年。该消息在盘前引发关注，并导致日本、韩国及中国台湾地区多只AI硬件供应链股票下跌。英伟达随后回应称，其产品路线图并未改变，否认核心进度受影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这使SemiAnalysis的后续文章更容易被市场解读为看空或看多英伟达。对此，SemiAnalysis在X回应称，<strong>自己没有发布关于英伟达股票的正面或负面观点，只是分享公司供应链和技术细节。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Crackerjack Finance则反驳了“看空”解读，称SemiAnalysis图表显示下半年实际数据比市场预期高20%，并据此推导出下一年每股收益约15美元，股价应在300至400美元。THE Grand Poobah则评论称，“三方循环融资似乎已经不够了”，指向市场对融资结构复杂化的担忧。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">问题在于，AI相关资产已历经多年上涨，估值与预期均处高位。任何供应链风险信号或融资结构变化，都会被迅速放大。SemiAnalysis的澄清可以说明其并未直接给出股票观点，但在Kyber NVL144风波之后，其供应链爆料的市场影响力与公信力争议将继续并存。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对投资者而言，这次“长文”的真正含义是：AI竞争已经不只是“谁有GPU”，而是“谁能把GPU、债务、客户合同和数据中心同时拼起来”。<strong>英伟达的兜底机制可能继续放大GPU需求，也可能让AI债务周期的尾部压力更多集中到英伟达自身信用上。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5cb96d291609174f46c3a4f8f55c4f","relate_stocks":{"NVDU":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-Direxion","WTAI":"WisdomTree Artificial Intelligence 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。对于X平台上围绕SemiAnalysis是否“看空英伟达”的讨论。该机构说：自己没有发布关于英伟达股票的正面或负面观点，只是在准确捕捉供应链和技术细节，市场可以自行交易。AI债务雪球：2029年破7万亿，直逼美国房贷市场SemiAnalysis认为，AI基础设施建设正在形成一个数万亿美元级别的信贷市场。到2029年，AI相关未偿债务可能达到约7.1万亿美元，规模将超过除美国按揭融资市场之外的其他美国资产支持债务市场。这部分债务主要来自两类资本开支。一类是AI IT资本开支，包括GPU、网络、存储和配套CPU；另一类是AI数据中心资本开支，包括承载这些GPU所需的机房、电力和制冷等基础设施。过去，Google、Amazon、Meta、Microsoft、Oracle等云巨头主要依靠自身现金流建设AI集群。但过去一年，Oracle、Meta，甚至Google开始更多使用债务。随着项目规模继续扩大，市场约束不再只是能否拿到GPU，也不是单纯能否找到机房，而是能否借到足够便宜、足够长期的钱。SemiAnalysis给出的结论是，AI资本开支的融资方式正在改变。云巨头资产负债表并非无限，如果所有AI集群都依赖少数投资级云厂商背书，新增项目迟早会遇到信用瓶颈。“三位一体”困局：资本、客户和数据中心缺一不可SemiAnalysis将AI项目融资拆解为“三位一体”：资本、包销合同和数据中心。第一是资本。贷款人通常需要看到投资级云厂商的长期take-or-pay合同，或类似信用担保，才愿意放款。换言之，贷款人真正看重的不是Neocloud本身信用，而是背后客户的信用。第二是包销。Neocloud要拿到客户，往往需要先证明自己能够支付GPU订金并锁定设备。但要拿到股权资金，又需要先证明自己有客户和贷款。这使项目在早期很容易陷入循环。第三是数据中心。Neocloud要么拿着客户合同和融资去说服数据中心运营商出租容量，要么自己建设数据中心。后者资金压力更大，周期也更长。这套模式使市场被锁在“5年期、云巨头背书”的模板里。问题是，许多VC支持的AI初创公司和推理服务商需要的是短周期、大规模算力，而不是5年长期合同。推理服务商尤其不愿承担长期价格和需求风险，很多情况下宁愿放弃算力，也不愿签超过1年的租约。“AI央行”英伟达：用AA级信用撬动整个市场英伟达提出“后盾计划”，切入这个融资缺口。据SemiAnalysis，英伟达向Neocloud提供GPU租赁收入兜底。如果第三方客户需求不足，英伟达承诺按预设价格购买算力；如果Neocloud以更高价格出租算力，英伟达则分享一部分超额收入。这类安排通常为6年期，按事先约定的价格曲线，对底层GPU容量提供最低收入保证。Neocloud仍可把算力租给任何客户，也可以提供更灵活的租期。只有当市场需求不足、无法按市场价格出租时，才会触发英伟达兜底。这就是“AI央行”比喻的来源。英伟达并非真的发行货币，而是在AI算力信用体系中扮演类似最后买方和信用背书人的角色。贷款人可以基于英伟达AA/Aa2级别信用来评估项目最差情景，从而更愿意放款。对英伟达而言，这有助于扩大GPU买方基础。如果市场只能依赖少数超大云厂商签5年包销合同，GPU需求很快会撞上融资约束；而这些云厂商还在用自研芯片对冲英伟达系统。扶持Neocloud和更多企业客户，等于为GPU需求打开新的融资通道。“兜底计划”结构拆解：英伟达赚多少，NeoCloud赚多少SemiAnalysis强调，Neocloud不是免费使用英伟达信用。兜底结构下，Neocloud要牺牲一部分上行收益，以换取项目可融资性。在一个示例价格曲线中，6年平均兜底价格为每GPU每小时2.36美元。假设GB300第一年1年期租赁价格为每小时6.75美元，第一年兜底价为每小时3.68美元，客户价格与兜底价之间的差额为3.07美元。若英伟达拿走超出兜底价部分的40%，英伟达获得1.23美元，Neocloud获得1.84美元，Neocloud第一年实际收入为每小时5.52美元，低于无兜底时的6.75美元。六年下来，在这一情景中，英伟达平均抽成约18%。Neocloud的项目IRR也会下降。有英伟达兜底且以1年期短租为主的情景下，项目IRR为25.4%；如果没有兜底但仍能顺利融资并出租，IRR可达40.7%。关键在最差情景。如果需求不足，Neocloud只能把算力租给英伟达，项目回报可能接近零，甚至略为负数。贷款人并不要求最差情况下项目赚钱，只要求最差情况下仍能还债。也正因此，债务能否成立，最终越来越取决于英伟达兜底是否可靠。这也是投资者应关注的核心：英伟达的安排短期有助于推动GPU销售和Neocloud扩张，但如果算力需求低于预期，收入缺口将由英伟达承接。债务未必直接记在英伟达账上，但融资模型的安全垫正在向英伟达信用集中。GPU融资定价，本质上看谁在背书SemiAnalysis称，目前GPU融资市场的定价，主要不是看Neocloud自身信用，而是看谁签了长期包销合同。CoreWeave是一个参照。其5年期无担保债券收益率约10%；但由Meta背书的85亿美元DDTL 4.0延迟提款定期贷款中，固定利率部分成本约5.9%，只比Meta 5年期债券收益率约5.0%高90个基点。这个90个基点，大致体现了市场给CoreWeave执行风险的定价。如果Neocloud脱离长期云厂商包销，融资成本会明显升高。对头部Neocloud来说，无担保融资可能需要支付约10%的利率，比有背书融资高约4个百分点。在70%至80%的贷款价值比下，融资成本从5.62%升至10%，税前利润率会从14.8%降至5.4%。英伟达兜底会把定价放在两者之间：高于当前云厂商背书交易约5.9%的总收益率，低于CoreWeave无担保债券约10%的收益率。银行最看重的是偿债覆盖率DSCR。对于有英伟达兜底的项目，贷款规模通常按兜底被触发的情景测算，前几年DSCR至少要达到1.3倍，对应贷款价值比通常为70%至80%。公开项目在亚太放大，兜底模式开始落地目前已公开的英伟达兜底项目集中在亚太。第一个是澳大利亚SharonAI的72MW AI工厂。该项目于2026年6月公布，计划在6年期兜底下扩展至最多4万颗GB300。SharonAI披露的总兜底价值为48.8亿美元，折算六年平均底价约为每GPU每小时2.33美元。另一个是Firmus在印尼巴淡岛的360MW AI集群，可能位于DayOne在Kabil Industrial Tech Park的设施中。该项目于2026年6月29日公布，显示英伟达兜底正在进入更大规模。Firmus预计该项目六年客户收入为250亿至300亿美元，目标客户包括AI原生公司、企业客户和推理服务商，并提供不同租期。不过，在部署GPU前，Firmus仍需确定数据中心提供方，或继续自建。SemiAnalysis还指出，英伟达并非唯一使用兜底安排的GPU厂商。AMD去年已经向AWS、OCI、DigitalOcean、Vultr、Tensorwave、Crusoe等客户提供过类似安排：客户购买更多AMD GPU，如果Neocloud无法完全出售容量，AMD愿意以长期合同形式租回一部分，用于内部软件开发。SemiAnalysis否认看空，但市场对其信号更加敏感这篇文章发布之际，SemiAnalysis本身也处在争议中。7月6日上午，SemiAnalysis曾在X平台发布连续推文，称英伟达Kyber 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