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Arwin
2022-03-09
懂了,这就all in做多[暗中观察]
Arwin
2021-07-24
也就….还行?
Arwin
2021-04-02
坐等提车[开心]
蔚来:ET7首台生产线车身正式下线
Arwin
2021-01-28
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@小虎AV: 【必看!CNBC专访华尔街带头大哥 Chamath中字完整视频:WSB课代表舌战华尔街名嘴!】Wallstreetbets论坛网红,亿万富翁投资者Chamath Palihapitiya周三接受了CNBC采访,本来以为是个对散户的道德拷问,最后却变成了对建制派的灵魂追问! 他在节目中表示已经清掉了自己在GME中的仓位,精彩要点如下:1,GME股价暴涨的原因是这只股票被机构做空了140%,凭什么可以多40%?要不是华尔街机构天天利用散户不能用的工具,怎么可能多40%而被散户抓到空子? 2,论坛上的研究水平,很多都和对冲基金的研究水平相当,凭什么散户不能根据这些研究来买卖? 3,华尔街上的量化基金(指明文艺复兴),根本就不看基本面来买卖,凭什么他们不看基本面就可以不受到指责,而散户不看基本面就要被指责? 4,从特斯拉股价的历史来看,所有的对冲基金都错,所有的散户都对,凭什么对冲基金就一定要比散户对? 5,对冲基金只开放给大户投资而不开放给散户,现在散户赚钱了就不满了要限制散户,凭什么? Chamath也说得很清楚,市场中性原则(market neutral)基金靠着$10亿的本金,就能得到券商$100亿的杠杆,这些都是散户没有的优势。华尔街就靠着秘密,靠着好的晚餐,靠着相互之间勾肩搭背,来垄断投资市场。而论坛的讨论很透明,这些都是华尔街应该学习的东西。不剧透了,大家自己看吧。 对话很精彩,中间Palihapitiya的观点把主持人问到闭麦三秒,我还以为网卡了[吃瓜] 个人认为是历史留名的经典采访,安利大家一定要看![哟哟]$游戏驿站(GME)$ $AMC院线(AMC)$
Arwin
2020-12-29
$蔚来(NIO)$
$拼多多(PDD)$
$比亚迪股份(01211)$
2021年,舞照跳,马照跑。[正经] [胜利]
Arwin
2020-12-22
A productive year it is. 利润贡献大户:
$蔚来(NIO)$
$比亚迪股份(01211)$
$波音(BA)$
喝汤票:XPEV LAZR JMIA TSLA Yala接下来的日子FED持续0利率+疫情背景下美帝被动放水,保住现有利润,稳中求进。扩表下,2/3资金都往国外资本市场(尤其新兴)涌入,A港美都大有可为。预祝各位股友发财[真香]
Arwin
2020-09-30
$蔚来(NIO)$
我就把话放着:搞蔚来,有未来。
Arwin
2020-09-04
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
抱歉,原内容已删除
Arwin
2020-08-10
$柯达(KODK)$
会玩会玩,炒一波股价又不贷款了😶资本主义赛高!21:50 【美股柯达已暂停交易】美股柯达已暂停交易,暂停交易前跌26.75%。此前其7.65亿美元药物原料贷款协议已被搁置。
Arwin
2020-07-17
国内新兴造车就蔚来,理想,小鹏。蔚来是老大。传统转型的新能源造车就比亚迪。就问一句:中国政府会让特斯拉一个美企独吞国内新能源车市场大肉么?卖吧,刚好没有加仓点。
抱歉,原内容已删除
Arwin
2020-06-12
修养生息两个月
Arwin
2020-01-18
$NIO 20220121 2.5 CALL(NIO)$
👌
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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Build)过程中非常重要的一环,可以充分识别并解决车身在制造阶段的问题,对未来ET7生产的持续推进有着积极的作用。</p><p>同时,合肥先进制造基地为ET7专门打造的全新焊装生产线也将正式投入使用。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2a759fc9f97a8c5bca7f8bd58a25be\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"837\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>此外,蔚来昨日公布了一季度交付数据,数据显示蔚来2021年第一季度累计交付20,060台,单季交付首次突破两万台,3月交付7,257台,同比增长373.4%,再创单月交付数新高。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08086c64422723bd1eac0b8dd4ac90a0\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来:ET7首台生产线车身正式下线</title>\n<style 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Day发布后,便吸引了众多目光关注。</p><p>就在昨日,ET7的首台生产线车身,已经在蔚来合肥先进制造基地正式下线。生产线车身是指车身结构件及覆盖件焊接总成,这是ET7在验证生产制造流程(Confirmation Build)过程中非常重要的一环,可以充分识别并解决车身在制造阶段的问题,对未来ET7生产的持续推进有着积极的作用。</p><p>同时,合肥先进制造基地为ET7专门打造的全新焊装生产线也将正式投入使用。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2a759fc9f97a8c5bca7f8bd58a25be\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"837\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>此外,蔚来昨日公布了一季度交付数据,数据显示蔚来2021年第一季度累计交付20,060台,单季交付首次突破两万台,3月交付7,257台,同比增长373.4%,再创单月交付数新高。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08086c64422723bd1eac0b8dd4ac90a0\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeb06dc1c36261473ead8873ac0bf768","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111944043","content_text":"配备激光雷达,续航超过1000km的蔚来ET7在NIO Day发布后,便吸引了众多目光关注。就在昨日,ET7的首台生产线车身,已经在蔚来合肥先进制造基地正式下线。生产线车身是指车身结构件及覆盖件焊接总成,这是ET7在验证生产制造流程(Confirmation Build)过程中非常重要的一环,可以充分识别并解决车身在制造阶段的问题,对未来ET7生产的持续推进有着积极的作用。同时,合肥先进制造基地为ET7专门打造的全新焊装生产线也将正式投入使用。此外,蔚来昨日公布了一季度交付数据,数据显示蔚来2021年第一季度累计交付20,060台,单季交付首次突破两万台,3月交付7,257台,同比增长373.4%,再创单月交付数新高。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1640,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311569673,"gmtCreate":1611814593192,"gmtModify":1703754161907,"author":{"id":"3461668978285043","authorId":"3461668978285043","name":"Arwin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f95889b59ad6c306e16564e199e9670","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3461668978285043","authorIdStr":"3461668978285043"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311569673","repostId":"311243649","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":311243649,"gmtCreate":1611804462472,"gmtModify":1703754062748,"author":{"id":"3514329116425907","authorId":"3514329116425907","name":"小虎AV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/162e12f8dcec770ec19f66f2abb0d5db","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514329116425907","authorIdStr":"3514329116425907"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"\n \n \n 【必看!CNBC专访华尔街带头大哥 Chamath中字完整视频:WSB课代表舌战华尔街名嘴!】Wallstreetbets论坛网红,亿万富翁投资者Chamath Palihapitiya周三接受了CNBC采访,本来以为是个对散户的道德拷问,最后却变成了对建制派的灵魂追问! 他在节目中表示已经清掉了自己在GME中的仓位,精彩要点如下:1,GME股价暴涨的原因是这只股票被机构做空了140%,凭什么可以多40%?要不是华尔街机构天天利用散户不能用的工具,怎么可能多40%而被散户抓到空子? 2,论坛上的研究水平,很多都和对冲基金的研究水平相当,凭什么散户不能根据这些研究来买卖? 3,华尔街上的量化基金(指明文艺复兴),根本就不看基本面来买卖,凭什么他们不看基本面就可以不受到指责,而散户不看基本面就要被指责? 4,从特斯拉股价的历史来看,所有的对冲基金都错,所有的散户都对,凭什么对冲基金就一定要比散户对? 5,对冲基金只开放给大户投资而不开放给散户,现在散户赚钱了就不满了要限制散户,凭什么? Chamath也说得很清楚,市场中性原则(market neutral)基金靠着$10亿的本金,就能得到券商$100亿的杠杆,这些都是散户没有的优势。华尔街就靠着秘密,靠着好的晚餐,靠着相互之间勾肩搭背,来垄断投资市场。而论坛的讨论很透明,这些都是华尔街应该学习的东西。不剧透了,大家自己看吧。 对话很精彩,中间Palihapitiya的观点把主持人问到闭麦三秒,我还以为网卡了[吃瓜] 个人认为是历史留名的经典采访,安利大家一定要看![哟哟]$游戏驿站(GME)$ $AMC院线(AMC)$\n \n","listText":"【必看!CNBC专访华尔街带头大哥 Chamath中字完整视频:WSB课代表舌战华尔街名嘴!】Wallstreetbets论坛网红,亿万富翁投资者Chamath Palihapitiya周三接受了CNBC采访,本来以为是个对散户的道德拷问,最后却变成了对建制派的灵魂追问! 他在节目中表示已经清掉了自己在GME中的仓位,精彩要点如下:1,GME股价暴涨的原因是这只股票被机构做空了140%,凭什么可以多40%?要不是华尔街机构天天利用散户不能用的工具,怎么可能多40%而被散户抓到空子? 2,论坛上的研究水平,很多都和对冲基金的研究水平相当,凭什么散户不能根据这些研究来买卖? 3,华尔街上的量化基金(指明文艺复兴),根本就不看基本面来买卖,凭什么他们不看基本面就可以不受到指责,而散户不看基本面就要被指责? 4,从特斯拉股价的历史来看,所有的对冲基金都错,所有的散户都对,凭什么对冲基金就一定要比散户对? 5,对冲基金只开放给大户投资而不开放给散户,现在散户赚钱了就不满了要限制散户,凭什么? Chamath也说得很清楚,市场中性原则(market neutral)基金靠着$10亿的本金,就能得到券商$100亿的杠杆,这些都是散户没有的优势。华尔街就靠着秘密,靠着好的晚餐,靠着相互之间勾肩搭背,来垄断投资市场。而论坛的讨论很透明,这些都是华尔街应该学习的东西。不剧透了,大家自己看吧。 对话很精彩,中间Palihapitiya的观点把主持人问到闭麦三秒,我还以为网卡了[吃瓜] 个人认为是历史留名的经典采访,安利大家一定要看![哟哟]$游戏驿站(GME)$ $AMC院线(AMC)$","text":"【必看!CNBC专访华尔街带头大哥 Chamath中字完整视频:WSB课代表舌战华尔街名嘴!】Wallstreetbets论坛网红,亿万富翁投资者Chamath Palihapitiya周三接受了CNBC采访,本来以为是个对散户的道德拷问,最后却变成了对建制派的灵魂追问! 他在节目中表示已经清掉了自己在GME中的仓位,精彩要点如下:1,GME股价暴涨的原因是这只股票被机构做空了140%,凭什么可以多40%?要不是华尔街机构天天利用散户不能用的工具,怎么可能多40%而被散户抓到空子? 2,论坛上的研究水平,很多都和对冲基金的研究水平相当,凭什么散户不能根据这些研究来买卖? 3,华尔街上的量化基金(指明文艺复兴),根本就不看基本面来买卖,凭什么他们不看基本面就可以不受到指责,而散户不看基本面就要被指责? 4,从特斯拉股价的历史来看,所有的对冲基金都错,所有的散户都对,凭什么对冲基金就一定要比散户对? 5,对冲基金只开放给大户投资而不开放给散户,现在散户赚钱了就不满了要限制散户,凭什么? Chamath也说得很清楚,市场中性原则(market neutral)基金靠着$10亿的本金,就能得到券商$100亿的杠杆,这些都是散户没有的优势。华尔街就靠着秘密,靠着好的晚餐,靠着相互之间勾肩搭背,来垄断投资市场。而论坛的讨论很透明,这些都是华尔街应该学习的东西。不剧透了,大家自己看吧。 对话很精彩,中间Palihapitiya的观点把主持人问到闭麦三秒,我还以为网卡了[吃瓜] 个人认为是历史留名的经典采访,安利大家一定要看![哟哟]$游戏驿站(GME)$ $AMC院线(AMC)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbec08aba384e043f57c0bffc73a79c","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311243649","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"ce75dde2879e4f3c932882c54b24c219","tweetId":"311243649","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/e2ad4227vodcq1254107296/51dce7e95285890813402890327/f0.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbec08aba384e043f57c0bffc73a79c"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":333155796,"gmtCreate":1609217890715,"gmtModify":1703738236031,"author":{"id":"3461668978285043","authorId":"3461668978285043","name":"Arwin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f95889b59ad6c306e16564e199e9670","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3461668978285043","authorIdStr":"3461668978285043"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">$比亚迪股份(01211)$</a>2021年,舞照跳,马照跑。[正经] [胜利] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">$比亚迪股份(01211)$</a>2021年,舞照跳,马照跑。[正经] [胜利] ","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$$拼多多(PDD)$$比亚迪股份(01211)$2021年,舞照跳,马照跑。[正经] [胜利]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b43deadd8c6476d855b60854112cd0f","width":"1080","height":"2340"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333155796","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":330829752,"gmtCreate":1608573039076,"gmtModify":1703735567672,"author":{"id":"3461668978285043","authorId":"3461668978285043","name":"Arwin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f95889b59ad6c306e16564e199e9670","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3461668978285043","authorIdStr":"3461668978285043"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A productive year it is. 利润贡献大户:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">$比亚迪股份(01211)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>喝汤票:XPEV LAZR JMIA TSLA Yala接下来的日子FED持续0利率+疫情背景下美帝被动放水,保住现有利润,稳中求进。扩表下,2/3资金都往国外资本市场(尤其新兴)涌入,A港美都大有可为。预祝各位股友发财[真香] ","listText":"A productive year it is. 利润贡献大户:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">$比亚迪股份(01211)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>喝汤票:XPEV LAZR JMIA TSLA Yala接下来的日子FED持续0利率+疫情背景下美帝被动放水,保住现有利润,稳中求进。扩表下,2/3资金都往国外资本市场(尤其新兴)涌入,A港美都大有可为。预祝各位股友发财[真香] ","text":"A productive year it is. 利润贡献大户:$蔚来(NIO)$$比亚迪股份(01211)$$波音(BA)$喝汤票:XPEV LAZR JMIA TSLA Yala接下来的日子FED持续0利率+疫情背景下美帝被动放水,保住现有利润,稳中求进。扩表下,2/3资金都往国外资本市场(尤其新兴)涌入,A港美都大有可为。预祝各位股友发财[真香]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ff2f21a7862a403f1e9f9cfa90bc8aa","width":"512","height":"383"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330829752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3531304998402335","authorId":"3531304998402335","name":"刀刀刀刀","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3531304998402335","authorIdStr":"3531304998402335"},"content":"好厉害!是交易期权吗?","text":"好厉害!是交易期权吗?","html":"好厉害!是交易期权吗?"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":977347532,"gmtCreate":1601467411226,"gmtModify":1703824404152,"author":{"id":"3461668978285043","authorId":"3461668978285043","name":"Arwin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f95889b59ad6c306e16564e199e9670","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3461668978285043","authorIdStr":"3461668978285043"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>我就把话放着:搞蔚来,有未来。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>我就把话放着:搞蔚来,有未来。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$我就把话放着:搞蔚来,有未来。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54ce064e50e3972b717cd60600d4b297","width":"1080","height":"1245"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/977347532","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3545822606252663","authorId":"3545822606252663","name":"一路走一路看","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2956a87917728d4f6975bb315094057","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3545822606252663","authorIdStr":"3545822606252663"},"content":"你是满仓蔚来?","text":"你是满仓蔚来?","html":"你是满仓蔚来?"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":978677021,"gmtCreate":1599228104163,"gmtModify":1703818109986,"author":{"id":"3461668978285043","authorId":"3461668978285043","name":"Arwin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f95889b59ad6c306e16564e199e9670","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3461668978285043","authorIdStr":"3461668978285043"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/978677021","repostId":"2064264892","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2826,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":944551378,"gmtCreate":1597067926794,"gmtModify":1704214255595,"author":{"id":"3461668978285043","authorId":"3461668978285043","name":"Arwin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f95889b59ad6c306e16564e199e9670","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3461668978285043","authorIdStr":"3461668978285043"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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Yala接下来的日子FED持续0利率+疫情背景下美帝被动放水,保住现有利润,稳中求进。扩表下,2/3资金都往国外资本市场(尤其新兴)涌入,A港美都大有可为。预祝各位股友发财[真香]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ff2f21a7862a403f1e9f9cfa90bc8aa","width":"512","height":"383"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330829752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3531304998402335","authorId":"3531304998402335","name":"刀刀刀刀","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3531304998402335","idStr":"3531304998402335"},"content":"好厉害!是交易期权吗?","text":"好厉害!是交易期权吗?","html":"好厉害!是交易期权吗?"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":941411735,"gmtCreate":1594990635627,"gmtModify":1704207694050,"author":{"id":"3461668978285043","authorId":"3461668978285043","name":"Arwin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f95889b59ad6c306e16564e199e9670","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3461668978285043","idStr":"3461668978285043"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"国内新兴造车就蔚来,理想,小鹏。蔚来是老大。传统转型的新能源造车就比亚迪。就问一句:中国政府会让特斯拉一个美企独吞国内新能源车市场大肉么?卖吧,刚好没有加仓点。","listText":"国内新兴造车就蔚来,理想,小鹏。蔚来是老大。传统转型的新能源造车就比亚迪。就问一句:中国政府会让特斯拉一个美企独吞国内新能源车市场大肉么?卖吧,刚好没有加仓点。","text":"国内新兴造车就蔚来,理想,小鹏。蔚来是老大。传统转型的新能源造车就比亚迪。就问一句:中国政府会让特斯拉一个美企独吞国内新能源车市场大肉么?卖吧,刚好没有加仓点。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/941411735","repostId":"1123241766","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1123241766","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1594987576,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123241766?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-07-17 20:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"蔚来盘前股价“跳水”,高盛降其评级至“卖出”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123241766","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月17日,$蔚来(NIO)$盘前股价出现跳水,一度跌超8%。\n\n$高盛(GS)$宣布,将蔚来评级降至卖出。高盛分析师Fei Fang表示,在过去的一个月里,蔚来汽车的股价在销量和利润预期没有实质性改变的情况下上涨了89%,导致蔚来汽车目前的股价“过度乐观”。","content":"<p>7月17日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>盘前股价出现跳水,一度跌超8%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>宣布,将蔚来评级降至卖出。高盛分析师Fei Fang表示,在过去的一个月里,蔚来汽车的股价在销量和利润预期没有实质性改变的情况下上涨了89%,导致蔚来汽车目前的股价“过度乐观”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3921145b78917ba3f1524da15f0ec33\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"466\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蔚来盘前股价“跳水”,高盛降其评级至“卖出”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-07-17 20:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>7月17日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>盘前股价出现跳水,一度跌超8%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>宣布,将蔚来评级降至卖出。高盛分析师Fei Fang表示,在过去的一个月里,蔚来汽车的股价在销量和利润预期没有实质性改变的情况下上涨了89%,导致蔚来汽车目前的股价“过度乐观”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3921145b78917ba3f1524da15f0ec33\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"466\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0090cc485ea4ba6d267489389e83608b","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123241766","content_text":"7月17日,蔚来盘前股价出现跳水,一度跌超8%。高盛宣布,将蔚来评级降至卖出。高盛分析师Fei Fang表示,在过去的一个月里,蔚来汽车的股价在销量和利润预期没有实质性改变的情况下上涨了89%,导致蔚来汽车目前的股价“过度乐观”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":916800420,"gmtCreate":1579277202060,"gmtModify":1704339575260,"author":{"id":"3461668978285043","authorId":"3461668978285043","name":"Arwin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f95889b59ad6c306e16564e199e9670","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3461668978285043","idStr":"3461668978285043"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO 20220121 2.5 CALL(NIO)$</a> 👌","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO 20220121 2.5 CALL(NIO)$</a> 👌","text":"$NIO 20220121 2.5 CALL(NIO)$ 👌","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d76ccff2d62998194f6993eb578d53a","width":"1080","height":"1788"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/916800420","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心!如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心!如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心!如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":978677021,"gmtCreate":1599228104163,"gmtModify":1703818109986,"author":{"id":"3461668978285043","authorId":"3461668978285043","name":"Arwin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f95889b59ad6c306e16564e199e9670","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3461668978285043","idStr":"3461668978285043"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/978677021","repostId":"2064264892","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2064264892","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点:美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1599185533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2064264892?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-09-04 10:12","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"中金:美股大跌是更大波动的开始?还是阶段性的盘整?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2064264892","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"美股大跌是更大波动的开始?还是阶段性的盘整?大家好,隔夜美股市场再度出现“久违”的动荡,以科技龙头为首的纳斯达克指数调整尤为明显,收盘下跌近5%,为6月11日以来的最大单日跌幅。相比之下,价值股占比更","content":"<p>美股大跌是更大波动的开始?还是阶段性的盘整?</p><p>大家好,</p><p>隔夜美股市场再度出现“久违”的动荡,以科技龙头为首的纳斯达克指数调整尤为明显,收盘下跌近5%,为6月11日以来的最大单日跌幅。相比之下,价值股占比更多的道琼斯指数跌幅相对较小(-2.8%)、权重较为均衡的标普500指数则下跌3.5%。其他资产方面,10年美债小幅回落至0.64%,美元指数变化不大,基本持平于93附近,黄金则小幅下跌。</p><p>美股突然出现大跌让市场普遍感到猝不及防,但考虑到8月以来美股市场持续上涨屡创新高、特别是科技龙头股表现尤为强劲,投资者对于这一调整在一定程度上也非完全没有心理准备。那么,这一下跌是更大跌幅的开始?还是阶段性的波动盘整?是投资者普遍较为关心的问题。就此,我们点评如下,供大家参考。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202094/93/w554h339/20200904/4912-iytwsaz7142992.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"339\"></p><p>i.市场为何出现调整?可能更多是市场连续上涨明显超买后的获利回吐,特别是科技板块。</p><p>首先,事件和经济数据层面,我们并没有观察到非常直接的催化剂。美国疫情整体仍在继续改善,昨天公布的首次申请失业金和前天公布的8月ISM制造业PMI也都是依然超预期向好;不过市场对于第二轮财政僵局久拖不决的担忧可能是一定的诱因。其次,从各类资产的表现看,也不太像典型的大规模避险,尽管美债利率略有回落,VIX抬升,但黄金依然下跌。再次,我们追踪的一系列流动性指标看,也没有出现大规模的流动性紧张现象,美元也基本持平。</p><p>因此,综合来看,排查了上述因素之后,隔夜市场的突然下跌可能更多是市场连续上涨并明显超买后的获利回吐,这在涨幅更大、仓位拥挤的科技龙头股上体现的更为明显,例如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>隔夜大跌8%,领跌主要的科技龙头。实际上,这一情形并非完全没有端倪。我们在本周一发表的周报《从头部基金持仓看美股“抱团“效应》中提示,美股市场已经明显超买(超买程度甚至超过2月初美股下跌前大跌高点)、同时空头仓位增加。这固然不能作为中期走势的绝对依据,但短期可能意味着技术层面预期透支。此外,美股市场此轮上涨过程中,部分得益于政府转移支付带来的可支配收入增加,市场更为散户化和个人化的现象(据Bloomberg估算,个人成交贡献了20%左右)也客观上加大了波动的程度。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202094/94/w554h340/20200904/071d-iytwsaz7143029.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"340\"><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202094/107/w554h353/20200904/717d-iytwsaz7143028.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"353\"></p><p>ii.那么这意味着更大跌幅的开始?还是阶段性的波动盘整?目前我们倾向于是后者,但可能短期伴随一定程度上的风格强弱切换。</p><p>实际上,回头来看,6月11日美股市场的突然大跌与此次如出一辙、可以作为一个典型的借鉴与参考,只不过下跌的重灾区和方向与此次完全相反。6月11日,美股三大主要指数跌幅都在5%以上,标普500下跌5.9%,道琼斯指数跌幅更是接近7%,纳斯达克反而跌幅最少(5.3%)。在大跌之前,市场也同样出现了我们上文中提到的明显超买迹象,但超买的领域更多来自以道琼斯为代表的价值和落后板块。其背景是,5月中旬美国逐步开启复工后,经济修复的乐观预期推动这一部分标的在5月中下旬开始快速走高并明显跑赢成长股,直到6月中下旬疫情再度出现抬头,触发了市场的下跌。对比来看,这一次换成了近期同样也经历了持续上涨且超买的科技龙头股。</p><p>从6月11日美股突然大跌后的走势看,尽管价值板块因为随后疫情的再度显著升级和复工停滞而一蹶不振,整体市场也进入了近一个月的盘整波动期,但并没有因此出现崩盘式的大跌,不过风格强弱再度切换回成长板块。</p><p>对比来看,此次下跌更多集中在涨幅集中、仓位拥挤的科技和成长股也就不难理解,但整体市场面临的环境比当时依然要更好一些。如我们在海外配置9月报《积极因素仍占主导》中分析,当前美国疫情仍在继续改善,而6月中反而是升级复发的开始,上行风险来自后续疫苗如果出现突破性进展;货币政策依然维持宽松基调,而且美联储近期的平均通胀目标制进一步锚定了这一预期和政策路径,整体影响中性;大选的临近的确可能引发一定的不确定和政策变数,但我们认为尚不至于造成系统性影响,压力可能更多在临近10月体现而非现在,近期特朗普的民调支持率也在快速修复、特别是在关键州以及博彩赔率上。</p><p>因此总结而言,我们认为目前的海外市场仍将是积极因素主导的环境(疫情改善),疫苗进展或财政刺激出炉都将进一步强化这一预期,短期的技术超买带来了一定波动,特别是可能导致阶段性的风格强弱切换,但尚不至于造成系统性压力和影响。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202094/94/w554h340/20200904/8dbf-iytwsaz7143041.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"340\"><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202094/91/w554h337/20200904/a084-iytwsaz7143043.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"337\"></p><p>iii.美股龙头科技股的头部集中和抱团效应。在近期龙头科技股屡创新高的背景下,投资者对于其背后的驱动因素和头部集中效应都较为关注,我们也在近期的多篇报告如《从头部基金持仓看美股“抱团“效应》、《拆解美股新高的驱动因素》、《对比科技泡沫看当前美股龙头估值》对此做出了分析。具体结论为,</p><p>此轮美股市场上涨呈现出基础过于集中、且市值占比较高,如1)标普500指数和纳斯达克指数成分股中上涨下跌比8月以来持续回落,过去20天净上涨公司数占比仅为7.7%和4.5%;2)前20家公司便贡献了标普500指数底部56.8%涨幅的近一半(~25.9个百分点);3)头部6家公司FAAMNG占整体市场的市值占比更是从3月23日的20.8%攀升至当前的23.7%,明显高于科技泡沫时~16%的高点。但是,上述上涨基础过于集中既有流动性充裕下估值扩张的直接推动,但也与成长板块受疫情冲击较小、特别是龙头股抵御风险能力更强有直接关系,换言之,并非完全没有基本面逻辑支撑。例如,龙头股市值占比虽然已经很高,但由于其受疫情影响较小,其收入和盈利占比也更高,体现了更强的风险抵御能力。实际上,一些传统板块虽然价格涨幅不大,但因为盈利受损更严重,估值扩张幅度反而更大,如能源、交融运输、汽车、消费者服务等。</p><p>与此同时,美股主要机构对于头部公司的“抱团”效应也非常明显,头部基金前20只股票持股占比超过30%,而且高度趋同。因此,在这一背景下,我们认为,在后续疫情控制和复工修复如果能够持续推进的背景下,此前集中在龙头成长股较窄基础上的上涨有望向更大范围扩散。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202094/93/w554h339/20200904/e882-iytwsaz7143055.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"339\"><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202094/94/w554h340/20200904/bc3e-iytwsaz7143056.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"340\"><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202094/94/w554h340/20200904/50f8-iytwsaz7143070.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"340\"><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202094/93/w554h339/20200904/5e7a-iytwsaz7143069.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"339\"><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202094/95/w554h341/20200904/ed80-iytwsaz7143088.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"341\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中金:美股大跌是更大波动的开始?还是阶段性的盘整?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中金:美股大跌是更大波动的开始?还是阶段性的盘整?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-09-04 10:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>美股大跌是更大波动的开始?还是阶段性的盘整?</p><p>大家好,</p><p>隔夜美股市场再度出现“久违”的动荡,以科技龙头为首的纳斯达克指数调整尤为明显,收盘下跌近5%,为6月11日以来的最大单日跌幅。相比之下,价值股占比更多的道琼斯指数跌幅相对较小(-2.8%)、权重较为均衡的标普500指数则下跌3.5%。其他资产方面,10年美债小幅回落至0.64%,美元指数变化不大,基本持平于93附近,黄金则小幅下跌。</p><p>美股突然出现大跌让市场普遍感到猝不及防,但考虑到8月以来美股市场持续上涨屡创新高、特别是科技龙头股表现尤为强劲,投资者对于这一调整在一定程度上也非完全没有心理准备。那么,这一下跌是更大跌幅的开始?还是阶段性的波动盘整?是投资者普遍较为关心的问题。就此,我们点评如下,供大家参考。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202094/93/w554h339/20200904/4912-iytwsaz7142992.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"339\"></p><p>i.市场为何出现调整?可能更多是市场连续上涨明显超买后的获利回吐,特别是科技板块。</p><p>首先,事件和经济数据层面,我们并没有观察到非常直接的催化剂。美国疫情整体仍在继续改善,昨天公布的首次申请失业金和前天公布的8月ISM制造业PMI也都是依然超预期向好;不过市场对于第二轮财政僵局久拖不决的担忧可能是一定的诱因。其次,从各类资产的表现看,也不太像典型的大规模避险,尽管美债利率略有回落,VIX抬升,但黄金依然下跌。再次,我们追踪的一系列流动性指标看,也没有出现大规模的流动性紧张现象,美元也基本持平。</p><p>因此,综合来看,排查了上述因素之后,隔夜市场的突然下跌可能更多是市场连续上涨并明显超买后的获利回吐,这在涨幅更大、仓位拥挤的科技龙头股上体现的更为明显,例如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>隔夜大跌8%,领跌主要的科技龙头。实际上,这一情形并非完全没有端倪。我们在本周一发表的周报《从头部基金持仓看美股“抱团“效应》中提示,美股市场已经明显超买(超买程度甚至超过2月初美股下跌前大跌高点)、同时空头仓位增加。这固然不能作为中期走势的绝对依据,但短期可能意味着技术层面预期透支。此外,美股市场此轮上涨过程中,部分得益于政府转移支付带来的可支配收入增加,市场更为散户化和个人化的现象(据Bloomberg估算,个人成交贡献了20%左右)也客观上加大了波动的程度。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202094/94/w554h340/20200904/071d-iytwsaz7143029.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"340\"><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202094/107/w554h353/20200904/717d-iytwsaz7143028.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"353\"></p><p>ii.那么这意味着更大跌幅的开始?还是阶段性的波动盘整?目前我们倾向于是后者,但可能短期伴随一定程度上的风格强弱切换。</p><p>实际上,回头来看,6月11日美股市场的突然大跌与此次如出一辙、可以作为一个典型的借鉴与参考,只不过下跌的重灾区和方向与此次完全相反。6月11日,美股三大主要指数跌幅都在5%以上,标普500下跌5.9%,道琼斯指数跌幅更是接近7%,纳斯达克反而跌幅最少(5.3%)。在大跌之前,市场也同样出现了我们上文中提到的明显超买迹象,但超买的领域更多来自以道琼斯为代表的价值和落后板块。其背景是,5月中旬美国逐步开启复工后,经济修复的乐观预期推动这一部分标的在5月中下旬开始快速走高并明显跑赢成长股,直到6月中下旬疫情再度出现抬头,触发了市场的下跌。对比来看,这一次换成了近期同样也经历了持续上涨且超买的科技龙头股。</p><p>从6月11日美股突然大跌后的走势看,尽管价值板块因为随后疫情的再度显著升级和复工停滞而一蹶不振,整体市场也进入了近一个月的盘整波动期,但并没有因此出现崩盘式的大跌,不过风格强弱再度切换回成长板块。</p><p>对比来看,此次下跌更多集中在涨幅集中、仓位拥挤的科技和成长股也就不难理解,但整体市场面临的环境比当时依然要更好一些。如我们在海外配置9月报《积极因素仍占主导》中分析,当前美国疫情仍在继续改善,而6月中反而是升级复发的开始,上行风险来自后续疫苗如果出现突破性进展;货币政策依然维持宽松基调,而且美联储近期的平均通胀目标制进一步锚定了这一预期和政策路径,整体影响中性;大选的临近的确可能引发一定的不确定和政策变数,但我们认为尚不至于造成系统性影响,压力可能更多在临近10月体现而非现在,近期特朗普的民调支持率也在快速修复、特别是在关键州以及博彩赔率上。</p><p>因此总结而言,我们认为目前的海外市场仍将是积极因素主导的环境(疫情改善),疫苗进展或财政刺激出炉都将进一步强化这一预期,短期的技术超买带来了一定波动,特别是可能导致阶段性的风格强弱切换,但尚不至于造成系统性压力和影响。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202094/94/w554h340/20200904/8dbf-iytwsaz7143041.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"340\"><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202094/91/w554h337/20200904/a084-iytwsaz7143043.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"337\"></p><p>iii.美股龙头科技股的头部集中和抱团效应。在近期龙头科技股屡创新高的背景下,投资者对于其背后的驱动因素和头部集中效应都较为关注,我们也在近期的多篇报告如《从头部基金持仓看美股“抱团“效应》、《拆解美股新高的驱动因素》、《对比科技泡沫看当前美股龙头估值》对此做出了分析。具体结论为,</p><p>此轮美股市场上涨呈现出基础过于集中、且市值占比较高,如1)标普500指数和纳斯达克指数成分股中上涨下跌比8月以来持续回落,过去20天净上涨公司数占比仅为7.7%和4.5%;2)前20家公司便贡献了标普500指数底部56.8%涨幅的近一半(~25.9个百分点);3)头部6家公司FAAMNG占整体市场的市值占比更是从3月23日的20.8%攀升至当前的23.7%,明显高于科技泡沫时~16%的高点。但是,上述上涨基础过于集中既有流动性充裕下估值扩张的直接推动,但也与成长板块受疫情冲击较小、特别是龙头股抵御风险能力更强有直接关系,换言之,并非完全没有基本面逻辑支撑。例如,龙头股市值占比虽然已经很高,但由于其受疫情影响较小,其收入和盈利占比也更高,体现了更强的风险抵御能力。实际上,一些传统板块虽然价格涨幅不大,但因为盈利受损更严重,估值扩张幅度反而更大,如能源、交融运输、汽车、消费者服务等。</p><p>与此同时,美股主要机构对于头部公司的“抱团”效应也非常明显,头部基金前20只股票持股占比超过30%,而且高度趋同。因此,在这一背景下,我们认为,在后续疫情控制和复工修复如果能够持续推进的背景下,此前集中在龙头成长股较窄基础上的上涨有望向更大范围扩散。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202094/93/w554h339/20200904/e882-iytwsaz7143055.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"339\"><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202094/94/w554h340/20200904/bc3e-iytwsaz7143056.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"340\"><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202094/94/w554h340/20200904/50f8-iytwsaz7143070.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"340\"><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202094/93/w554h339/20200904/5e7a-iytwsaz7143069.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"339\"><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202094/95/w554h341/20200904/ed80-iytwsaz7143088.png\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"341\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider202094/200/w1080h720/20200904/6d79-iytwsaz7142995.jpg","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2064264892","content_text":"美股大跌是更大波动的开始?还是阶段性的盘整?大家好,隔夜美股市场再度出现“久违”的动荡,以科技龙头为首的纳斯达克指数调整尤为明显,收盘下跌近5%,为6月11日以来的最大单日跌幅。相比之下,价值股占比更多的道琼斯指数跌幅相对较小(-2.8%)、权重较为均衡的标普500指数则下跌3.5%。其他资产方面,10年美债小幅回落至0.64%,美元指数变化不大,基本持平于93附近,黄金则小幅下跌。美股突然出现大跌让市场普遍感到猝不及防,但考虑到8月以来美股市场持续上涨屡创新高、特别是科技龙头股表现尤为强劲,投资者对于这一调整在一定程度上也非完全没有心理准备。那么,这一下跌是更大跌幅的开始?还是阶段性的波动盘整?是投资者普遍较为关心的问题。就此,我们点评如下,供大家参考。i.市场为何出现调整?可能更多是市场连续上涨明显超买后的获利回吐,特别是科技板块。首先,事件和经济数据层面,我们并没有观察到非常直接的催化剂。美国疫情整体仍在继续改善,昨天公布的首次申请失业金和前天公布的8月ISM制造业PMI也都是依然超预期向好;不过市场对于第二轮财政僵局久拖不决的担忧可能是一定的诱因。其次,从各类资产的表现看,也不太像典型的大规模避险,尽管美债利率略有回落,VIX抬升,但黄金依然下跌。再次,我们追踪的一系列流动性指标看,也没有出现大规模的流动性紧张现象,美元也基本持平。因此,综合来看,排查了上述因素之后,隔夜市场的突然下跌可能更多是市场连续上涨并明显超买后的获利回吐,这在涨幅更大、仓位拥挤的科技龙头股上体现的更为明显,例如苹果隔夜大跌8%,领跌主要的科技龙头。实际上,这一情形并非完全没有端倪。我们在本周一发表的周报《从头部基金持仓看美股“抱团“效应》中提示,美股市场已经明显超买(超买程度甚至超过2月初美股下跌前大跌高点)、同时空头仓位增加。这固然不能作为中期走势的绝对依据,但短期可能意味着技术层面预期透支。此外,美股市场此轮上涨过程中,部分得益于政府转移支付带来的可支配收入增加,市场更为散户化和个人化的现象(据Bloomberg估算,个人成交贡献了20%左右)也客观上加大了波动的程度。ii.那么这意味着更大跌幅的开始?还是阶段性的波动盘整?目前我们倾向于是后者,但可能短期伴随一定程度上的风格强弱切换。实际上,回头来看,6月11日美股市场的突然大跌与此次如出一辙、可以作为一个典型的借鉴与参考,只不过下跌的重灾区和方向与此次完全相反。6月11日,美股三大主要指数跌幅都在5%以上,标普500下跌5.9%,道琼斯指数跌幅更是接近7%,纳斯达克反而跌幅最少(5.3%)。在大跌之前,市场也同样出现了我们上文中提到的明显超买迹象,但超买的领域更多来自以道琼斯为代表的价值和落后板块。其背景是,5月中旬美国逐步开启复工后,经济修复的乐观预期推动这一部分标的在5月中下旬开始快速走高并明显跑赢成长股,直到6月中下旬疫情再度出现抬头,触发了市场的下跌。对比来看,这一次换成了近期同样也经历了持续上涨且超买的科技龙头股。从6月11日美股突然大跌后的走势看,尽管价值板块因为随后疫情的再度显著升级和复工停滞而一蹶不振,整体市场也进入了近一个月的盘整波动期,但并没有因此出现崩盘式的大跌,不过风格强弱再度切换回成长板块。对比来看,此次下跌更多集中在涨幅集中、仓位拥挤的科技和成长股也就不难理解,但整体市场面临的环境比当时依然要更好一些。如我们在海外配置9月报《积极因素仍占主导》中分析,当前美国疫情仍在继续改善,而6月中反而是升级复发的开始,上行风险来自后续疫苗如果出现突破性进展;货币政策依然维持宽松基调,而且美联储近期的平均通胀目标制进一步锚定了这一预期和政策路径,整体影响中性;大选的临近的确可能引发一定的不确定和政策变数,但我们认为尚不至于造成系统性影响,压力可能更多在临近10月体现而非现在,近期特朗普的民调支持率也在快速修复、特别是在关键州以及博彩赔率上。因此总结而言,我们认为目前的海外市场仍将是积极因素主导的环境(疫情改善),疫苗进展或财政刺激出炉都将进一步强化这一预期,短期的技术超买带来了一定波动,特别是可能导致阶段性的风格强弱切换,但尚不至于造成系统性压力和影响。iii.美股龙头科技股的头部集中和抱团效应。在近期龙头科技股屡创新高的背景下,投资者对于其背后的驱动因素和头部集中效应都较为关注,我们也在近期的多篇报告如《从头部基金持仓看美股“抱团“效应》、《拆解美股新高的驱动因素》、《对比科技泡沫看当前美股龙头估值》对此做出了分析。具体结论为,此轮美股市场上涨呈现出基础过于集中、且市值占比较高,如1)标普500指数和纳斯达克指数成分股中上涨下跌比8月以来持续回落,过去20天净上涨公司数占比仅为7.7%和4.5%;2)前20家公司便贡献了标普500指数底部56.8%涨幅的近一半(~25.9个百分点);3)头部6家公司FAAMNG占整体市场的市值占比更是从3月23日的20.8%攀升至当前的23.7%,明显高于科技泡沫时~16%的高点。但是,上述上涨基础过于集中既有流动性充裕下估值扩张的直接推动,但也与成长板块受疫情冲击较小、特别是龙头股抵御风险能力更强有直接关系,换言之,并非完全没有基本面逻辑支撑。例如,龙头股市值占比虽然已经很高,但由于其受疫情影响较小,其收入和盈利占比也更高,体现了更强的风险抵御能力。实际上,一些传统板块虽然价格涨幅不大,但因为盈利受损更严重,估值扩张幅度反而更大,如能源、交融运输、汽车、消费者服务等。与此同时,美股主要机构对于头部公司的“抱团”效应也非常明显,头部基金前20只股票持股占比超过30%,而且高度趋同。因此,在这一背景下,我们认为,在后续疫情控制和复工修复如果能够持续推进的背景下,此前集中在龙头成长股较窄基础上的上涨有望向更大范围扩散。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2826,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":635953482,"gmtCreate":1646808067462,"gmtModify":1646808067462,"author":{"id":"3461668978285043","authorId":"3461668978285043","name":"Arwin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f95889b59ad6c306e16564e199e9670","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3461668978285043","idStr":"3461668978285043"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"懂了,这就all in做多[暗中观察] ","listText":"懂了,这就all in做多[暗中观察] ","text":"懂了,这就all in做多[暗中观察]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baf69971ab8137e7e4e88cdb6303ac46","width":"389","height":"498"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635953482","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":174928919,"gmtCreate":1627060132331,"gmtModify":1627060132331,"author":{"id":"3461668978285043","authorId":"3461668978285043","name":"Arwin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f95889b59ad6c306e16564e199e9670","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3461668978285043","idStr":"3461668978285043"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"也就….还行?","listText":"也就….还行?","text":"也就….还行?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f3aa701fc88267140399b5a8172b120","width":"1170","height":"1425"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174928919","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":340856327,"gmtCreate":1617376299469,"gmtModify":1617376299469,"author":{"id":"3461668978285043","authorId":"3461668978285043","name":"Arwin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f95889b59ad6c306e16564e199e9670","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3461668978285043","idStr":"3461668978285043"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"坐等提车[开心] ","listText":"坐等提车[开心] ","text":"坐等提车[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340856327","repostId":"1111944043","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111944043","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1617374206,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111944043?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 22:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"蔚来:ET7首台生产线车身正式下线","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111944043","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"配备激光雷达,续航超过1000km的蔚来ET7在NIO Day发布后,便吸引了众多目光关注。就在昨日,ET7的首台生产线车身,已经在蔚来合肥先进制造基地正式下线。生产线车身是指车身结构件及覆盖件焊接总","content":"<p>配备激光雷达,续航超过1000km的蔚来ET7在NIO Day发布后,便吸引了众多目光关注。</p><p>就在昨日,ET7的首台生产线车身,已经在蔚来合肥先进制造基地正式下线。生产线车身是指车身结构件及覆盖件焊接总成,这是ET7在验证生产制造流程(Confirmation Build)过程中非常重要的一环,可以充分识别并解决车身在制造阶段的问题,对未来ET7生产的持续推进有着积极的作用。</p><p>同时,合肥先进制造基地为ET7专门打造的全新焊装生产线也将正式投入使用。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2a759fc9f97a8c5bca7f8bd58a25be\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"837\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>此外,蔚来昨日公布了一季度交付数据,数据显示蔚来2021年第一季度累计交付20,060台,单季交付首次突破两万台,3月交付7,257台,同比增长373.4%,再创单月交付数新高。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08086c64422723bd1eac0b8dd4ac90a0\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来:ET7首台生产线车身正式下线</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蔚来:ET7首台生产线车身正式下线\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-02 22:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>配备激光雷达,续航超过1000km的蔚来ET7在NIO Day发布后,便吸引了众多目光关注。</p><p>就在昨日,ET7的首台生产线车身,已经在蔚来合肥先进制造基地正式下线。生产线车身是指车身结构件及覆盖件焊接总成,这是ET7在验证生产制造流程(Confirmation Build)过程中非常重要的一环,可以充分识别并解决车身在制造阶段的问题,对未来ET7生产的持续推进有着积极的作用。</p><p>同时,合肥先进制造基地为ET7专门打造的全新焊装生产线也将正式投入使用。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a2a759fc9f97a8c5bca7f8bd58a25be\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"837\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>此外,蔚来昨日公布了一季度交付数据,数据显示蔚来2021年第一季度累计交付20,060台,单季交付首次突破两万台,3月交付7,257台,同比增长373.4%,再创单月交付数新高。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08086c64422723bd1eac0b8dd4ac90a0\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeb06dc1c36261473ead8873ac0bf768","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111944043","content_text":"配备激光雷达,续航超过1000km的蔚来ET7在NIO Day发布后,便吸引了众多目光关注。就在昨日,ET7的首台生产线车身,已经在蔚来合肥先进制造基地正式下线。生产线车身是指车身结构件及覆盖件焊接总成,这是ET7在验证生产制造流程(Confirmation Build)过程中非常重要的一环,可以充分识别并解决车身在制造阶段的问题,对未来ET7生产的持续推进有着积极的作用。同时,合肥先进制造基地为ET7专门打造的全新焊装生产线也将正式投入使用。此外,蔚来昨日公布了一季度交付数据,数据显示蔚来2021年第一季度累计交付20,060台,单季交付首次突破两万台,3月交付7,257台,同比增长373.4%,再创单月交付数新高。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1640,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311569673,"gmtCreate":1611814593192,"gmtModify":1703754161907,"author":{"id":"3461668978285043","authorId":"3461668978285043","name":"Arwin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f95889b59ad6c306e16564e199e9670","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3461668978285043","idStr":"3461668978285043"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311569673","repostId":"311243649","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":311243649,"gmtCreate":1611804462472,"gmtModify":1703754062748,"author":{"id":"3514329116425907","authorId":"3514329116425907","name":"小虎AV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/162e12f8dcec770ec19f66f2abb0d5db","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514329116425907","idStr":"3514329116425907"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"\n \n \n 【必看!CNBC专访华尔街带头大哥 Chamath中字完整视频:WSB课代表舌战华尔街名嘴!】Wallstreetbets论坛网红,亿万富翁投资者Chamath Palihapitiya周三接受了CNBC采访,本来以为是个对散户的道德拷问,最后却变成了对建制派的灵魂追问! 他在节目中表示已经清掉了自己在GME中的仓位,精彩要点如下:1,GME股价暴涨的原因是这只股票被机构做空了140%,凭什么可以多40%?要不是华尔街机构天天利用散户不能用的工具,怎么可能多40%而被散户抓到空子? 2,论坛上的研究水平,很多都和对冲基金的研究水平相当,凭什么散户不能根据这些研究来买卖? 3,华尔街上的量化基金(指明文艺复兴),根本就不看基本面来买卖,凭什么他们不看基本面就可以不受到指责,而散户不看基本面就要被指责? 4,从特斯拉股价的历史来看,所有的对冲基金都错,所有的散户都对,凭什么对冲基金就一定要比散户对? 5,对冲基金只开放给大户投资而不开放给散户,现在散户赚钱了就不满了要限制散户,凭什么? Chamath也说得很清楚,市场中性原则(market neutral)基金靠着$10亿的本金,就能得到券商$100亿的杠杆,这些都是散户没有的优势。华尔街就靠着秘密,靠着好的晚餐,靠着相互之间勾肩搭背,来垄断投资市场。而论坛的讨论很透明,这些都是华尔街应该学习的东西。不剧透了,大家自己看吧。 对话很精彩,中间Palihapitiya的观点把主持人问到闭麦三秒,我还以为网卡了[吃瓜] 个人认为是历史留名的经典采访,安利大家一定要看![哟哟]$游戏驿站(GME)$ $AMC院线(AMC)$\n \n","listText":"【必看!CNBC专访华尔街带头大哥 Chamath中字完整视频:WSB课代表舌战华尔街名嘴!】Wallstreetbets论坛网红,亿万富翁投资者Chamath Palihapitiya周三接受了CNBC采访,本来以为是个对散户的道德拷问,最后却变成了对建制派的灵魂追问! 他在节目中表示已经清掉了自己在GME中的仓位,精彩要点如下:1,GME股价暴涨的原因是这只股票被机构做空了140%,凭什么可以多40%?要不是华尔街机构天天利用散户不能用的工具,怎么可能多40%而被散户抓到空子? 2,论坛上的研究水平,很多都和对冲基金的研究水平相当,凭什么散户不能根据这些研究来买卖? 3,华尔街上的量化基金(指明文艺复兴),根本就不看基本面来买卖,凭什么他们不看基本面就可以不受到指责,而散户不看基本面就要被指责? 4,从特斯拉股价的历史来看,所有的对冲基金都错,所有的散户都对,凭什么对冲基金就一定要比散户对? 5,对冲基金只开放给大户投资而不开放给散户,现在散户赚钱了就不满了要限制散户,凭什么? Chamath也说得很清楚,市场中性原则(market neutral)基金靠着$10亿的本金,就能得到券商$100亿的杠杆,这些都是散户没有的优势。华尔街就靠着秘密,靠着好的晚餐,靠着相互之间勾肩搭背,来垄断投资市场。而论坛的讨论很透明,这些都是华尔街应该学习的东西。不剧透了,大家自己看吧。 对话很精彩,中间Palihapitiya的观点把主持人问到闭麦三秒,我还以为网卡了[吃瓜] 个人认为是历史留名的经典采访,安利大家一定要看![哟哟]$游戏驿站(GME)$ $AMC院线(AMC)$","text":"【必看!CNBC专访华尔街带头大哥 Chamath中字完整视频:WSB课代表舌战华尔街名嘴!】Wallstreetbets论坛网红,亿万富翁投资者Chamath Palihapitiya周三接受了CNBC采访,本来以为是个对散户的道德拷问,最后却变成了对建制派的灵魂追问! 他在节目中表示已经清掉了自己在GME中的仓位,精彩要点如下:1,GME股价暴涨的原因是这只股票被机构做空了140%,凭什么可以多40%?要不是华尔街机构天天利用散户不能用的工具,怎么可能多40%而被散户抓到空子? 2,论坛上的研究水平,很多都和对冲基金的研究水平相当,凭什么散户不能根据这些研究来买卖? 3,华尔街上的量化基金(指明文艺复兴),根本就不看基本面来买卖,凭什么他们不看基本面就可以不受到指责,而散户不看基本面就要被指责? 4,从特斯拉股价的历史来看,所有的对冲基金都错,所有的散户都对,凭什么对冲基金就一定要比散户对? 5,对冲基金只开放给大户投资而不开放给散户,现在散户赚钱了就不满了要限制散户,凭什么? 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