那个我的个人主页 - 老虎社区

那个我

那个我

存一寸光阴，换一个世纪！

IP属地：云南

985关注

534粉丝

5主题

0勋章

07-26

$嘀嗒出行(02559)$ 什么时候跌成毛票啊，

06-28

$嘀嗒出行(02559)$ 嘿嘿😁这个缺德出行，收割你没商[得意]

06-28

$嘀嗒出行(02559)$ 发行价即最高[喷血] [喷血] [喷血]

2023-01-05

2023-01-05

$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$

2022-12-23

合股就合股，还说成什么反向拆股……这样说有JB毛用[笑哭] [笑哭]

AMC院线跌超6%，此前宣布1.1亿美元新融资方案并提议反向拆股

2022-11-10

$亚朵(ATAT)$ 酒店不错👍样样好！可股票未必了[得意] [得意] 开盘小炒几天就赶紧跑[龇牙]

2022-04-27

大白天的，你做什么梦[笑哭] 特斯拉怎么可能短期一下子跌到700。

特斯拉暴跌，市场在担心什么？买下推特，马斯克可能破产？

2022-04-12

$阿里健康(00241)$阿里早就不健康了[笑哭] [笑哭]

2022-03-15

跌得好[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] 直接破100吧……深埋了段永平，也让小散们能买得起一手意思意思[龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙]

腾讯跌破300港元！段永平：不等了，抄底！

2022-02-25

$特斯拉(TSLA)$怎么地，难道看不到600头的特斯拉[捂脸]

2022-01-05

$特斯拉(TSLA)$又要追上历史新高了？

2022-01-05

$特斯拉(TSLA)$呵呵……这过山🛻……震死期权吗？[惊吓] [惊吓] [惊吓]

2021-12-28

$阿里健康(00241)$坚持几天就成毛票股了[笑哭] [笑哭]

2021-12-21

$Society Pass Inc(SOPA)$12上不去了，接下来就是一路跌回3块[笑哭]

2021-12-18

$特斯拉(TSLA)$嘿嘿，900不下，1000不上，磨叽磨叽大半年哦😯

2021-12-14

$特斯拉(TSLA)$破9指日可待[笑哭] [笑哭]

2021-12-14

$迅雷(XNET)$雷布斯，你得回到毛票🎫股啦[龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙]

2021-12-09

$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$砸，狠狠砸！

2021-12-09

$AeroClean Technologies, Inc.(AERC)$5块，不能再多了……

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621906534","repostId":"1161741167","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161741167","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1671786612,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161741167?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-23 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC院线跌超6%，此前宣布1.1亿美元新融资方案并提议反向拆股\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-23 17:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>12月23日，AMC院线盘前跌超6%，此前宣布1.1亿美元新融资方案并提议反向拆股。</p><p>AMC院线宣布了一项新的1.1亿美元融资提案和一项需要股东批准的反向拆股提案。AMC提议按1比10的比例对AMC普通股进行反向拆股，公司要求召开特别股东会议，批准反向拆股，并将优先股单位APE转换成AMC普通股。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a8e1c8aea9b2bb02059f46f62cdf76\" tg-width=\"534\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/765eea7b8efcd21c54c30bb5f35bff0d","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161741167","content_text":"12月23日，AMC院线盘前跌超6%，此前宣布1.1亿美元新融资方案并提议反向拆股。AMC院线宣布了一项新的1.1亿美元融资提案和一项需要股东批准的反向拆股提案。AMC提议按1比10的比例对AMC普通股进行反向拆股，公司要求召开特别股东会议，批准反向拆股，并将优先股单位APE转换成AMC普通股。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":664649432,"gmtCreate":1668012556426,"gmtModify":1668012557744,"author":{"id":"3445831548099450","authorId":"3445831548099450","name":"那个我","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/571cecff25a322e56f7a962e96512978","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3445831548099450","idStr":"3445831548099450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATAT\">$亚朵(ATAT)$&nbsp;</a>酒店不错👍样样好！可股票未必了[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;开盘小炒几天就赶紧跑[龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATAT\">$亚朵(ATAT)$&nbsp;</a>酒店不错👍样样好！可股票未必了[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;开盘小炒几天就赶紧跑[龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"$亚朵(ATAT)$ 酒店不错👍样样好！可股票未必了[得意] [得意] 开盘小炒几天就赶紧跑[龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/664649432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":618293612,"gmtCreate":1651042082441,"gmtModify":1651042082441,"author":{"id":"3445831548099450","authorId":"3445831548099450","name":"那个我","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/571cecff25a322e56f7a962e96512978","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3445831548099450","idStr":"3445831548099450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大白天的，你做什么梦[笑哭]&nbsp;特斯拉怎么可能短期一下子跌到700。","listText":"大白天的，你做什么梦[笑哭]&nbsp;特斯拉怎么可能短期一下子跌到700。","text":"大白天的，你做什么梦[笑哭] 特斯拉怎么可能短期一下子跌到700。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/618293612","repostId":"2230433051","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2230433051","pubTimestamp":1651025248,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2230433051?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-27 10:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉暴跌，市场在担心什么？买下推特，马斯克可能破产？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2230433051","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"即使股价跌到$800，马斯克的质押率也会高达94%。特斯拉今天股价放量大跌，和上次马斯克套现时候的股价表现极其相似。下表是我们根据特斯拉的年报数据汇总的马斯克股票质押的情况。在过去两年中，特斯拉的股价偶尔会出现大幅下跌，但随后会被更大的涨幅所抵消。但这一次的暴跌给马斯克带来巨大风险。但鉴于周二特斯拉股票跌超12%，这种回旋余地已经大大缩水。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>摘要：可以简单认为，只要<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股价跌到$700，马斯克收购推特的钱就不够了。即使股价跌到$800，马斯克的质押率也会高达94%。</b></blockquote><p>昨天推特董事会同意了马斯克的收购要约，推特大涨逼近收购价$54.20。但是随着今天特斯拉股价大跌，貌似铁板钉钉的被收购的推特股价也大跌4%，这后面的逻辑是什么？</p><p>特斯拉今天股价放量大跌，和上次马斯克套现时候的股价表现极其相似。特斯拉全天成交金额超过$400亿，估计晚些时候SEC文件会显示马斯克今天已经开卖股票，开始筹措需要收购推特的资金。根据上周四马斯克给SEC递交的文件，这次收购共需资金$465亿，其中马斯克自筹资金$210亿，银行资金$255亿，下表是此次收购资金的结构。</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td><p>融资模式</p></td><td><p>融资方</p></td><td><p>融资金额</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>债务-定期贷款</p></td><td><p>摩根斯坦利、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>、巴克莱、三菱日联、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HB5.UK\">法国巴黎银行</a>、瑞穗、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0J6Y.UK\">法国兴业银行</a></p></td><td><p>$65亿</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>债务-周转信贷</p></td><td><p>摩根斯坦利、美国银行、巴克莱、三菱日联、法国巴黎银行、瑞穗、法国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601166\">兴业银行</a></p></td><td><p>$5亿</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>债务-抵押过桥贷款</p></td><td><p>摩根斯坦利、美国银行、巴克莱、三菱日联、法国巴黎银行、瑞穗、法国兴业银行</p></td><td><p>$30亿</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>债务-无抵押过桥贷款</p></td><td><p>摩根斯坦利、美国银行、巴克莱、三菱日联、法国巴黎银行、瑞穗、法国兴业银行</p></td><td><p>$30亿</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>债务-保证金贷款</p><p>均以马斯克对特斯拉股票的所有权为担保</p></td><td><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>、美国银行、巴克莱、三菱日联、法国巴黎银行、瑞穗、法国兴业银行、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">加拿大皇家银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CM\">加拿大帝国商业银行</a></p></td><td><p>$125亿</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>资金承诺</p></td><td><p>马斯克</p></td><td><p>$210亿</p></td></tr><tr><td><p><b>总融资额</b></p></td><td><p><b>$465亿</b></p></td></tr></tbody></table></p><p>在银行的$255亿资金中，最大头$125亿来自于马斯克的特斯拉股票质押的贷款资金。银行表示最多提供股票价值的20%作为贷款，也就是说，$125亿的资金需要马斯克质押价值$625亿的股票。马斯克有这么多股票吗？</p><p>下表是我们根据特斯拉的年报数据汇总的马斯克股票质押的情况。由于最新的2021年数据并没有出来，所以我们只有截至2020年年底马斯克股票质押的情况。</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td><p>马斯克持有股票</p></td><td><p>马斯克已经质押股票</p></td><td><p>质押比率</p></td><td><p>尚未质押股票</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>2020</p></td><td><p>170,492,985</p></td><td><p>88,331,125</p></td><td><p>51.81%</p></td><td><p>82,161,860</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>2019</p></td><td><p>34,085,560</p></td><td><p>18,466,225</p></td><td><p>54.18%</p></td><td><p>15,619,335</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>2018</p></td><td><p>33,824,680</p></td><td><p>13,394,056</p></td><td><p>39.60%</p></td><td><p>20,430,624</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>2017</p></td><td><p>33,632,421</p></td><td><p>13,774,897</p></td><td><p>40.96%</p></td><td><p>19,857,524</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>2016</p></td><td><p>33,503,668</p></td><td><p>11,450,723</p></td><td><p>34.18%</p></td><td><p>22,052,945</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>2015</p></td><td><p>28,371,342</p></td><td><p>9,420,113</p></td><td><p>33.20%</p></td><td><p>18,951,229</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>2014</p></td><td><p>28,288,697</p></td><td><p>7,424,899</p></td><td><p>26.25%</p></td><td><p>20,863,798</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>2013</p></td><td><p>28,288,622</p></td><td><p>10,024,899</p></td><td><p>35.44%</p></td><td><p>18,263,723</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>2012</p></td><td><p>27,203,237</p></td><td><p>9,470,000</p></td><td><p>34.81%</p></td><td><p>17,733,237</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>2011</p></td><td><p>27,131,565</p></td><td><p>4,500,000</p></td><td><p>16.59%</p></td><td><p>22,631,565</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>2010</p></td><td><p>25,699,596</p></td><td><p>4,500,000</p></td><td><p>17.51%</p></td><td><p>21,199,596</p></td></tr></tbody></table></p><p>可以看到，虽然是首富，马斯克超过50%的股票都已经质押。这些质押取得的资金，大部分都应该去了烧钱的SpaceX和Boring公司“上天入地“。2020年结束后，马斯克只有8,200万股票没有质押。</p><p>去年马斯克期权行权加上卖出股份套现，这一进一出马斯克又多了约710万股。假设2021年马斯克没有质押更多的股份，<b>那么马斯克手上约有8,900万股可以质押的股票</b>，这是最优的情况。如果马斯克去年又质押了股票，那么数量会更少。下表是马斯克去年套现情况。</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td><p>行使期权数</p></td><td><p>22,762,050</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>期权价格</p></td><td><p>6.24</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>卖股数</p></td><td><p>15,602,784</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>总共套现金额</p></td><td><p>$16,571,765,725</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>共出售天数</p></td><td><p>15天</p></td></tr></tbody></table></p><p>刚才说了，银行对马斯克的股票质押是20%。如果特斯拉股价在$1,000，那么马斯克质押股票是够的，但如果特斯拉跌到$600，那么马斯克就算质押所有股票，那么银行给的钱也不够了。下表是特斯拉股价和质押率的sensitivity分析，基于的假设是马斯克已经质押股票88,331,125股，没有质押股票89,321,126股。</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td><p>特斯拉股价</p></td><td><p>完成推特收购后马斯克所有股票的质押率</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>$1,000</p></td><td><p>85%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>$900</p></td><td><p>89%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>$800</p></td><td><p>94%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>$700</p></td><td><p>100%</p></td></tr></tbody></table></p><p><b>可以简单认为，只要特斯拉股价跌到$700，马斯克收购推特的钱就不够了。即使股价跌到$800，马斯克的质押率也会高达94%。</b></p><p>所以马斯克现在就陷入了一个很尴尬的局面。一方面为了把自筹资金$210亿凑齐，他必须要卖股票，但卖股票就会压低股价，今天已经压到了$900之下；另一方面为了让银行给他足够的资金，他又必须要把股价维持在高位，今天收盘价低于了$900他的股票质押率会高达90%。<b>最难受的，是如果收购推特以后又不套现，那么马斯克将永远保持非常高的特斯拉股票质押率，这对他个人的财务以及特斯拉的股价，都是非常危险的事情。</b></p><p>谁说有钱就可以任性的？</p><p>相关阅读：特斯拉一天市值蒸发超千亿美元，市场在担心什么？</p><p>自马斯克四月初披露持有Twitter股权以来，特斯拉股票已累计跌去23%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc3340d9350b9429ab5dce6a153e5de9\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>显而易见，马斯克收购Twitter在投资者中造成了恐慌。</p><p>上周四，马斯克向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交的文件详细列出了从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>和其他金融机构获得的255亿美元债务融资，包括用他在特斯拉的股权支持的保证金贷款。此外，马斯克本人还将提供210亿美元的股权融资。</p><p>也就是说，马斯克已经获得465亿美元的资金来收购推特公司，但其中超过三分之二的资金或是由他自掏腰包，或是拿他的特斯拉股票作抵押。</p><p>投资者担心，<b>如果马斯克因为收购Twitter而分心，甚至可能通过出售特斯拉股票来资助这笔交易，将会影响到特斯拉的正常运营。</b></p><p><b>甚至有网友在Twitter上戏称如今的特斯拉仿佛已经被马斯克抛弃。</b></p><p>华尔街知名投行分析师Daniel Ives表示，这些担忧“在名义上引发了一场熊节”。</p><p>此外，随着通胀高烧不退，美联储准备启动一系列大幅加息，全球股市普遍下挫，投资者纷纷逃离高增长企业。</p><p>“特斯拉今天将面临三个打击，”美国国家证券公司(National Securities Corp.)首席市场策略师Arthur Hogan说，”<b>除了担心出售（特斯拉股票）和成长性股票抛售加剧，特斯拉股票也反映出一些（投资者）担心马斯克分心过度而面临新的挑战。</b>”</p><p>周二这样的日子 马斯克再也承受不起</p><p>对马斯克而言，这种波动并不新鲜。在过去两年中，特斯拉的股价偶尔会出现大幅下跌，但随后会被更大的涨幅所抵消。</p><p>但这一次的暴跌给马斯克带来巨大风险。</p><p>据彭博社，为了达成这笔交易，马斯克同意向银行融资130亿美元，利用个人所持特斯拉的部分股份获得125亿美元的融资承诺，另外210亿美元通过抵押股权获得。</p><p>如果根据特斯拉周一的收盘价，足以保证马斯克支付保证金贷款，而且他仍然拥有价值约216亿美元的未抵押股票，税后几乎足够为交易的现金部分提供资金。</p><p>但鉴于周二特斯拉股票跌超12%，这种回旋余地已经大大缩水。虽然马斯克仍然有足够的资金获得保证金贷款，但以目前的价格，他将只剩下114亿美元的未质押股票。</p><p>据华尔街见闻此前文章，<b>假如特斯拉股价跌至740美元下方，较周二收盘再跌去16%，马斯克就不够满足125亿美元融资的要求了。</b></p><p>英国投资平台AJ Bell的投资总监Russ Mould说：“马斯克用特斯拉的股票作抵押是在冒很大的风险。”“如果这家电动汽车制造商的股价意外暴跌，可能会造成很多不安。”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1635821181494","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉暴跌，市场在担心什么？买下推特，马斯克可能破产？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉暴跌，市场在担心什么？买下推特，马斯克可能破产？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-27 10:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FddZa9LrcmoHIjLqqgKHpw><strong>老虎锐评</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：可以简单认为，只要特斯拉股价跌到$700，马斯克收购推特的钱就不够了。即使股价跌到$800，马斯克的质押率也会高达94%。昨天推特董事会同意了马斯克的收购要约，推特大涨逼近收购价$54.20。但是随着今天特斯拉股价大跌，貌似铁板钉钉的被收购的推特股价也大跌4%，这后面的逻辑是什么？特斯拉今天股价放量大跌，和上次马斯克套现时候的股价表现极其相似。特斯拉全天成交金额超过$400亿，估计晚些时候...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FddZa9LrcmoHIjLqqgKHpw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/968c7f56416ea450ba452ed25e324d2e","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FddZa9LrcmoHIjLqqgKHpw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2230433051","content_text":"摘要：可以简单认为，只要特斯拉股价跌到$700，马斯克收购推特的钱就不够了。即使股价跌到$800，马斯克的质押率也会高达94%。昨天推特董事会同意了马斯克的收购要约，推特大涨逼近收购价$54.20。但是随着今天特斯拉股价大跌，貌似铁板钉钉的被收购的推特股价也大跌4%，这后面的逻辑是什么？特斯拉今天股价放量大跌，和上次马斯克套现时候的股价表现极其相似。特斯拉全天成交金额超过$400亿，估计晚些时候SEC文件会显示马斯克今天已经开卖股票，开始筹措需要收购推特的资金。根据上周四马斯克给SEC递交的文件，这次收购共需资金$465亿，其中马斯克自筹资金$210亿，银行资金$255亿，下表是此次收购资金的结构。融资模式融资方融资金额债务-定期贷款摩根斯坦利、美国银行、巴克莱、三菱日联、法国巴黎银行、瑞穗、法国兴业银行$65亿债务-周转信贷摩根斯坦利、美国银行、巴克莱、三菱日联、法国巴黎银行、瑞穗、法国兴业银行$5亿债务-抵押过桥贷款摩根斯坦利、美国银行、巴克莱、三菱日联、法国巴黎银行、瑞穗、法国兴业银行$30亿债务-无抵押过桥贷款摩根斯坦利、美国银行、巴克莱、三菱日联、法国巴黎银行、瑞穗、法国兴业银行$30亿债务-保证金贷款均以马斯克对特斯拉股票的所有权为担保摩根士丹利、美国银行、巴克莱、三菱日联、法国巴黎银行、瑞穗、法国兴业银行、瑞士信贷、花旗、德意志银行、加拿大皇家银行、加拿大帝国商业银行$125亿资金承诺马斯克$210亿总融资额$465亿在银行的$255亿资金中，最大头$125亿来自于马斯克的特斯拉股票质押的贷款资金。银行表示最多提供股票价值的20%作为贷款，也就是说，$125亿的资金需要马斯克质押价值$625亿的股票。马斯克有这么多股票吗？下表是我们根据特斯拉的年报数据汇总的马斯克股票质押的情况。由于最新的2021年数据并没有出来，所以我们只有截至2020年年底马斯克股票质押的情况。马斯克持有股票马斯克已经质押股票质押比率尚未质押股票2020170,492,98588,331,12551.81%82,161,860201934,085,56018,466,22554.18%15,619,335201833,824,68013,394,05639.60%20,430,624201733,632,42113,774,89740.96%19,857,524201633,503,66811,450,72334.18%22,052,945201528,371,3429,420,11333.20%18,951,229201428,288,6977,424,89926.25%20,863,798201328,288,62210,024,89935.44%18,263,723201227,203,2379,470,00034.81%17,733,237201127,131,5654,500,00016.59%22,631,565201025,699,5964,500,00017.51%21,199,596可以看到，虽然是首富，马斯克超过50%的股票都已经质押。这些质押取得的资金，大部分都应该去了烧钱的SpaceX和Boring公司“上天入地“。2020年结束后，马斯克只有8,200万股票没有质押。去年马斯克期权行权加上卖出股份套现，这一进一出马斯克又多了约710万股。假设2021年马斯克没有质押更多的股份，那么马斯克手上约有8,900万股可以质押的股票，这是最优的情况。如果马斯克去年又质押了股票，那么数量会更少。下表是马斯克去年套现情况。行使期权数22,762,050期权价格6.24卖股数15,602,784总共套现金额$16,571,765,725共出售天数15天刚才说了，银行对马斯克的股票质押是20%。如果特斯拉股价在$1,000，那么马斯克质押股票是够的，但如果特斯拉跌到$600，那么马斯克就算质押所有股票，那么银行给的钱也不够了。下表是特斯拉股价和质押率的sensitivity分析，基于的假设是马斯克已经质押股票88,331,125股，没有质押股票89,321,126股。特斯拉股价完成推特收购后马斯克所有股票的质押率$1,00085%$90089%$80094%$700100%可以简单认为，只要特斯拉股价跌到$700，马斯克收购推特的钱就不够了。即使股价跌到$800，马斯克的质押率也会高达94%。所以马斯克现在就陷入了一个很尴尬的局面。一方面为了把自筹资金$210亿凑齐，他必须要卖股票，但卖股票就会压低股价，今天已经压到了$900之下；另一方面为了让银行给他足够的资金，他又必须要把股价维持在高位，今天收盘价低于了$900他的股票质押率会高达90%。最难受的，是如果收购推特以后又不套现，那么马斯克将永远保持非常高的特斯拉股票质押率，这对他个人的财务以及特斯拉的股价，都是非常危险的事情。谁说有钱就可以任性的？相关阅读：特斯拉一天市值蒸发超千亿美元，市场在担心什么？自马斯克四月初披露持有Twitter股权以来，特斯拉股票已累计跌去23%。显而易见，马斯克收购Twitter在投资者中造成了恐慌。上周四，马斯克向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交的文件详细列出了从摩根士丹利和其他金融机构获得的255亿美元债务融资，包括用他在特斯拉的股权支持的保证金贷款。此外，马斯克本人还将提供210亿美元的股权融资。也就是说，马斯克已经获得465亿美元的资金来收购推特公司，但其中超过三分之二的资金或是由他自掏腰包，或是拿他的特斯拉股票作抵押。投资者担心，如果马斯克因为收购Twitter而分心，甚至可能通过出售特斯拉股票来资助这笔交易，将会影响到特斯拉的正常运营。甚至有网友在Twitter上戏称如今的特斯拉仿佛已经被马斯克抛弃。华尔街知名投行分析师Daniel Ives表示，这些担忧“在名义上引发了一场熊节”。此外，随着通胀高烧不退，美联储准备启动一系列大幅加息，全球股市普遍下挫，投资者纷纷逃离高增长企业。“特斯拉今天将面临三个打击，”美国国家证券公司(National Securities Corp.)首席市场策略师Arthur Hogan说，”除了担心出售（特斯拉股票）和成长性股票抛售加剧，特斯拉股票也反映出一些（投资者）担心马斯克分心过度而面临新的挑战。”周二这样的日子 马斯克再也承受不起对马斯克而言，这种波动并不新鲜。在过去两年中，特斯拉的股价偶尔会出现大幅下跌，但随后会被更大的涨幅所抵消。但这一次的暴跌给马斯克带来巨大风险。据彭博社，为了达成这笔交易，马斯克同意向银行融资130亿美元，利用个人所持特斯拉的部分股份获得125亿美元的融资承诺，另外210亿美元通过抵押股权获得。如果根据特斯拉周一的收盘价，足以保证马斯克支付保证金贷款，而且他仍然拥有价值约216亿美元的未抵押股票，税后几乎足够为交易的现金部分提供资金。但鉴于周二特斯拉股票跌超12%，这种回旋余地已经大大缩水。虽然马斯克仍然有足够的资金获得保证金贷款，但以目前的价格，他将只剩下114亿美元的未质押股票。据华尔街见闻此前文章，假如特斯拉股价跌至740美元下方，较周二收盘再跌去16%，马斯克就不够满足125亿美元融资的要求了。英国投资平台AJ Bell的投资总监Russ Mould说：“马斯克用特斯拉的股票作抵押是在冒很大的风险。”“如果这家电动汽车制造商的股价意外暴跌，可能会造成很多不安。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":613323931,"gmtCreate":1649728412029,"gmtModify":1649728412029,"author":{"id":"3445831548099450","authorId":"3445831548099450","name":"那个我","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/571cecff25a322e56f7a962e96512978","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3445831548099450","idStr":"3445831548099450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">$阿里健康(00241)$</a>阿里早就不健康了[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">$阿里健康(00241)$</a>阿里早就不健康了[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"$阿里健康(00241)$阿里早就不健康了[笑哭] [笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/613323931","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":634367632,"gmtCreate":1647356387110,"gmtModify":1647356387110,"author":{"id":"3445831548099450","authorId":"3445831548099450","name":"那个我","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/571cecff25a322e56f7a962e96512978","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3445831548099450","idStr":"3445831548099450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"跌得好[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;直接破100吧……深埋了段永平，也让小散们能买得起一手意思意思[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"跌得好[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;直接破100吧……深埋了段永平，也让小散们能买得起一手意思意思[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"跌得好[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] 直接破100吧……深埋了段永平，也让小散们能买得起一手意思意思[龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/634367632","repostId":"1128591179","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128591179","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注中国基金报，即时获取深度理财资讯","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中国基金报","id":"1045836040","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1124f95a0404a8e98c2342c3c9c0de5"},"pubTimestamp":1647333079,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1128591179?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-15 16:31","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"腾讯跌破300港元！段永平：不等了，抄底！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128591179","media":"中国基金报","summary":"今天，港股又崩了，腾讯更是首当其冲，一度跌破300港元关口。然而，暴跌之下，有“中国巴菲特”之称的段永平，再度出手。卖$苹果$、卖$伯克希尔$段永平“抄底”腾讯暴跌之下，段永平依旧看好腾讯，甚至，出手“疯狂”抄底。随后，他更是在评论区晒出自己的下单记录，豪掷500多万美元，继去年8月“抄底”腾讯之后，段永平再度抄底。到2018年10月，段永平则出手买腾讯了。彼时，腾讯刚从770港元的高点一路跌到400多港元。","content":"<div>\n<p>今天，港股又崩了，腾讯更是首当其冲，一度跌破300港元关口。不少投资者心态肯定也崩了。要知道，这距离去年的高点，已经跌去了超60%。然而，暴跌之下，有“中国巴菲特”之称的段永平，再度出手。卖苹果、卖伯克希尔段永平“抄底”腾讯暴跌之下，段永平依旧看好腾讯，甚至，出手“疯狂”抄底。3月14午间，段永平接连更新两条动态，称“这个礼拜五有一批145的苹果的put到期，很久以前卖的。这笔钱出来可以考虑放一半...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n腾讯跌破300港元！段永平：不等了，抄底！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2022-03-15 16:31 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>中国基金报</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今天，港股又崩了，腾讯更是首当其冲，一度跌破300港元关口。不少投资者心态肯定也崩了。要知道，这距离去年的高点，已经跌去了超60%。然而，暴跌之下，有“中国巴菲特”之称的段永平，再度出手。卖苹果、卖伯克希尔段永平“抄底”腾讯暴跌之下，段永平依旧看好腾讯，甚至，出手“疯狂”抄底。3月14午间，段永平接连更新两条动态，称“这个礼拜五有一批145的苹果的put到期，很久以前卖的。这笔钱出来可以考虑放一半...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">Web 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