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The market will never work in the favor of obvious decisions. The example of this can be seen by hiked on the battery event for tesla. Where most of the people have bought calls of tesla making it too obvious to fall stock to this low. The principle of the working market is to have transactions and price set, where some people lose money and others gain the equivalent amount which is lost. The funds will travel from one hand to another, it will not be created. Thus, it is never a good idea to follow the crowd in the stock market (it might be good upto some extent). But the most accurate decisions are those where we know that people are going for the north and we are going to south. It might be hurtful for some time but this idea is sure to work out. Considering any long position holders (2-10 years) in the equation. Which cannot be possible at the current stage because currently everyone is in the need of money. Thus every positions are taken on the market could possibly be a short term positions.

Thus, the most obvious decisions people are making right now is to buy puts and sell the futures of the S&P index. This has created a huge volume segregation of shorts pressure on the market.

The idea is not about the long term, since in long term 6-8 months the market is sure to fall. But will reach another green level before the final fall. This is a time when most of the people are confident to invest long in market.

There is a quote which says, if people are in fear, buy long and if people are confident, do not invest. This quote explains the fundamentals of working market. This explains how the people in fear closes their short positions which will make the market to go up. It does not necessarily means that if people are confident then the market will fall, because the people can be long term investors and short term investors, so either they close their positions or hold it in the end of the day will make the market go up or down. Thus, it is suggested not to trade in a obvious confident market.

The idea which applies to the current market is, in the current situation with pandemic, unemployment and the GDP. It is too obvious that people (traders and organizations) have been accumulating (since March) large amount of shorts positions, put positions and future sell positions on the index. Which has built up the pressure in the down tread makes it harder to settle in lower position, In my suggestion this will just force the index to go upward and cross its previous high within 2 months, to settle the options, futures and then will make the final fall.

This is just my own opinion, since I like to figure out the macro trends based on the decision making.