看起来像18个月前的谷歌！AWS信仰回归，亚马逊“AI牛市逻辑”无懈可击_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

看起来像18个月前的谷歌！AWS信仰回归，亚马逊“AI牛市逻辑”无懈可击

智通财经01-21

美国科技巨无霸亚马逊(AMZN.US)的多头阵营开始押注，该公司股价在多年来跑输谷歌、微软以及英伟达等大型科技公司同行之后，有望重新确立其云计算增长霸主以及美股市场牛市领军者地位。这种近期愈发升温的乐观看涨情绪始于一些机构投资者更加看好亚马逊旗下云计算平台AWS能够实现堪比十多年前B端云计算浪潮席卷全球时期的无比强劲增长轨迹，他们认为AWS这一全球最大市场份额云计算平台有望从市场对于云端AI推理...

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AWS belief returns to Amazon (AMZN.US) \"AI bull market logic\" is impeccable","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2894769652b55eef7fb7da9e5c803a33","symbols_score_info":{"GGLS":0.6,"GGLL":0.6,"GOOW":0.6,"GOOP":0.6,"GOOY":0.6,"GOOX":0.6,"GOU":0.6,"AMZN":1.98,"USAW.SI":0.6,"USJW.SI":0.6},"content_text":"美国科技巨无霸亚马逊(AMZN.US)的多头阵营开始押注，该公司股价在多年来跑输谷歌、微软以及英伟达等大型科技公司同行之后，有望重新确立其云计算增长霸主以及美股市场牛市领军者地位。这种近期愈发升温的乐观看涨情绪始于一些机构投资者更加看好亚马逊旗下云计算平台AWS能够实现堪比十多年前B端云计算浪潮席卷全球时期的无比强劲增长轨迹，他们认为AWS这一全球最大市场份额云计算平台有望从市场对于云端AI推理算力需求与完整化AI开发者平台生态需求爆炸式增长中受益。此外，投资者们认为革新式AI技术也将帮助该巨头更为人熟知的电商业务，使广告定向更精准，并提升其庞大物流运营体系的效率。“AWS带来的强大改善效应将对投资者认知产生实质性的提振效果，尤其是关于这只科技股票在云计算与人工智能算力领域相对‘落后者’的印象，”来自Winslow Capital Management的投资组合经理Pat Burton表示。他本人已经将亚马逊视为“七大科技巨头”(即Magnificent Seven)中最重仓且长期超配的科技公司之一。在2025年全年，亚马逊股价是“七巨头”中表现最差的股票标的，并且已连续七年跑输该科技巨头群体。该股全年仅仅上涨5%，也远低于科技股权重较高的纳斯达克100指数高达20%的延续牛市涨幅。2026年初的情况则相对有所逆转，尽管周二股价下跌3.4%，亚马逊股价年初至今仍小幅上涨，在其余“七巨头”估计在年初集体大幅回落之际，其股价表现仅落后于谷歌母公司Alphabet Inc.(GOOGL.US)。如上图所示，亚马逊股价去年跑输美股大盘——同时该股也跑输“七大科技巨头”基准股价指数。占据标普500指数以及纳斯达克100指数高额权重(大约35%)的所谓“七大科技巨头”，即“Magnificent Seven”(Mag 7)，它们包括：苹果、微软、谷歌、特斯拉、英伟达、亚马逊以及Facebook母公司Meta Platforms，它们乃标普500指数屡创新高的核心推动力，也被华尔街顶级投资机构们视为在自互联网时代以来最大技术变革背景下最有能力为投资者们带来巨额回报的组合。放眼整个美股，占据标普500指数以及纳斯达克100指数高额权重的所谓七大科技巨头自2023年以来乃领涨以及驱动整个美股长期牛市的最核心力量。它们凭借布局AI带来的无比强劲营收、坚如磐石的基本面、多年以来持续强劲的自由现金流储备以及不断扩张的股票回购规模，吸引全球范围的资金蜂拥而至。AI应用浪潮全面来袭，亚马逊AWS迎来崛起时刻?自今年以来，随着全球范围B端与C端用户们在生成式AI应用软件、AI搜索、AI推荐以及AI智能体等实际AI应用层面的需求激增并且正在大规模落地，华尔街分析师们愈发看好亚马逊将在电商与云计算业务(AWS)领域实现更加强劲增长曲线，尤其是AWS营收与营业利润增幅有望在AI大浪潮之下实现比肩云计算爆发式增长时代(2015年前后)的40%+级别强劲水平。谷歌在11月下旬重磅推出Gemini3 AI应用生态之后，这一最前沿AI应用软件随即风靡全球，推动谷歌AI算力需求瞬间激增。Gemini3 系列产品一经发布即带来无比庞大的AI token处理量，迫使谷歌大幅调低Gemini 3 Pro与Nano Banana Pro的免费访问量，对Pro订阅用户也实施暂时限制，叠加韩国近期贸易出口数据显示HBM存储系统以及企业级SSD需求持续强劲，进一步验证了华尔街所高呼的“AI应用加速渗透时期以及AI热潮仍然处于算力基础设施供不应求的早期建设阶段”。“谷歌AI生态链”的核心参与者之一——即在谷歌云平台上(Google Cloud)提供数据库平台服务的数据库软件开发商MongoDB(MDB.US)最新公布的营收与盈利全面超预期并上调全年业绩展望，与谷歌最新抛出的更大规模AI Capex以及谷歌更加强劲增速的云计算业务营收相互呼应，可谓全面凸显出谷歌、微软以及亚马逊等大型云计算厂商们在AI算力基础设施建设以及AI应用侧的AI开发生态平台、云推理端AI算力需求依然处于超高景气区间。今年以来，Gemini 3 系列的推进(面向生态/应用持续扩展)以及 Claude 在“编程/Agent 式使用”上的爆红，确实在B端(企业流程、开发、客服、分析)与C端(AI 搜索/推荐/消费者型智能体)层面加速了生成式 AI 的落地，客观上会把算力需求从“训练”进一步推向更广泛的推理与在线服务，从而大幅抬升全球云计算IaaS基础设施(AI GPU/AI ASIC加速器、网络、存储、大型数据工程)以及完整云计算PaaS AI开发者生态平台的景气度轨迹。在这个大背景下，华尔街更看好亚马逊“电商+AWS”走出类似英伟达的强劲增长曲线的逻辑也更顺：尤其是在AWS云计算端，它已经出现再加速增长迹象(例如2025年三季度AWS销售额同比 +20%)，且拿到OpenAI的长期大单(约400亿美元)强化了“云计算基础设施以及AI云推理需求”可见度;同时市场还在交易“亚马逊AWS Trainium自研AI ASIC算力集群被更大规模采用”的AI算力牛市叙事(包括媒体此前报道的OpenAI可能引入Trainium的潜在选项)。亚马逊AWS在云计算领域的市占率遥遥领先其他参与者，这也使得AWS推出的AI应用软件开发生态——Amazon Bedrock持续吸引庞大的企业客户以低技术门槛模式一站式开发各类AI应用。亚马逊与微软、谷歌这三大云计算领军者全面聚焦于布局与生成式AI相关的B端以及C端应用软件开发者生态，旨在全面降低各行各业非IT人士开发AI应用的技术门槛，以及提供强大的云端AI算力平台，尤其是云端AI推理算力资源。相比于其他巨头而言廉价的估值过去几年的股价持续跑输使其估值相对便宜——至少从历史角度看是如此。亚马逊目前的交易价格约为未来12个月预期盈利的24倍(即24x的预期市盈率)，低于苹果公司(AAPL.US)、微软公司(MSFT.US.)以及谷歌母公司Alphabet(GOOGL.US)，且显著低于其五年期预期市盈率均值36x。一些华尔街资深人士将Alphabet在2025年的惊人股价反弹视为亚马逊可能复制的最典型范本。过去几年，谷歌母公司被视为AI竞赛中的典型“输家”，其股价表现也在2023年和2024年大幅跑输亚马逊以及“七巨头”基准股价指数。就在去年此时，它的股价与估值是这组超级科技巨头中最便宜的。随后，Alphabet旗下的搜索引擎兼云计算巨头谷歌当时在3月25日发布了其Gemini AI达模型的新版本，随着市场对其更加强劲AI应用能力的口碑传播，股价随即起飞。自那以后，该股(Alphabet)累计飙升大约89%，不仅远超包括英伟达在内的“七巨头”中其他科技巨头，也使其在此2025年期间跻身标普500指数涨幅前25名之列。今年Alphabet市值更是接连赶超苹果与微软，当前谷歌母公司市值位列全球第二，高达3.89万亿美元，仅次于“AI芯片超级霸主”英伟达(NVDA.US)。看起来像18个月前的谷歌如今，越来越多投资者将亚马逊视为下一只可能捕捉这波AI超级大热潮的大型科技股。“它看起来就像大约18个月之前的那个股价还未彻底爆发的云计算与搜索引擎霸主谷歌，”来自Laffer Tengler Investments的首席执行官兼首席投资官Nancy Tengler表示。“在这个行业板块里，增长与牛市情绪变化可能发生得非常快。”市场情绪已经在朝这个方向演进。AWS在公司最近一次(10月公布的)业绩中录得数年来最强劲增速。随后亚马逊又达成了一笔规模约400亿美元的重磅交易，将为OpenAI提供算力资源。并且，上个月有媒体报道称，OpenAI正与亚马逊洽谈至少100亿美元融资，并表示可能使用亚马逊自研的Trainium AI ASIC算力集群。去年12月的一场重要开发者会议被视为进一步凸显了市场对该公司AWS云计算业务以及新兴的AI半导体业务的信心。“在2025年的大部分时间里，亚马逊一直在与一种叙事作斗争——即AWS已经落后于谷歌和微软。”Monness Crespi Hardt & Co.分析师Brian White在12月22日的一份报告中写道。“然而，亚马逊凭借强劲业绩以及OpenAI相关的动态消息彻底扭转了这一消极叙事。”他给予亚马逊股票“买入”评级;彭博的一项面向华尔街的调查显示，受访华尔街分析师中有高达95%也给予等同于“买入”的看涨评级。华尔街分析师们预期在AWS愈发强劲的盈利能力带动之下，亚马逊整体盈利能力将更强。彭博汇总的数据显示，在分析师们预计每年将增长约11%的同时，还预计亚马逊每股收益将在2026年实现增长近12%，并有望在2027年进一步实现增长22%。分析师们预计亚马逊营业利润将在今年增长约26%，明年增长约24%。华尔街分析师们对亚马逊利润的预期也在变得更加乐观。过去六个月里，市场对该公司2026年净利润的一致预期上调了8.2%，而同期对营收的预期则上调了4.2%。“这是那只还没得到足够‘宠爱’的AI算力标的。”持有亚马逊股票的Prime Capital Financial投资组合经理Clayton Allison表示。“与那些虚无缥缈的高估值AI泡沫公司不同的是，亚马逊已经搭建了所有人都能够且都迫切想用的AI算力基础设施，它还是一家电商巨头，而且它处在估值折价交易中。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}