美联储高官再放降息信号！威廉姆斯称9月会议将“实时”决策，风险平衡已转变_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

美联储高官再放降息信号！威廉姆斯称9月会议将“实时”决策，风险平衡已转变

智通财经08-28

8月27日，纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯周三表示，即将召开的美联储政策会议将是一次"充满变数的会议"，暗示可能调整利率政策，但未明确具体倾向。他在接受采访时强调，美联储始终以实现充分就业和价格稳定为目标，当前"风险平衡已发生转变"。这一表态与美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上周五的讲话形成呼应。鲍威尔当时指出，美国就业市场下行风险显著上升，并称"风险平衡的变化可能要求调整政策立场"，此番言论直接推升...

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Balance of risk has shifted as Williams says September meeting will make'real-time 'decisions","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a331b6c62b8df480042a53fb851fcd93","symbols_score_info":{"IVV":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPY":1,"OEX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"WMB":1},"content_text":"8月27日，纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯周三表示，即将召开的美联储政策会议将是一次\"充满变数的会议\"，暗示可能调整利率政策，但未明确具体倾向。他在接受采访时强调，美联储始终以实现充分就业和价格稳定为目标，当前\"风险平衡已发生转变\"。这一表态与美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上周五的讲话形成呼应。鲍威尔当时指出，美国就业市场下行风险显著上升，并称\"风险平衡的变化可能要求调整政策立场\"，此番言论直接推升了市场对9月降息的预期。威廉姆斯进一步阐释称，当前联邦基金利率处于\"适度限制性\"水平，这意味着美联储既具备降息空间，又需保持政策灵活性。\"我们可能需要降低利率，但未来仍会维持一定程度的限制性立场，\"他表示，\"关键在于准确把握经济运行的实际状况。\"值得一提的是，美联储官员近期密集释放政策转向信号，反映出机构对经济前景的评估正从\"抗通胀\"向\"防衰退\"倾斜。市场普遍预期，若8月非农就业数据延续7月疲软态势，美联储或将在9月议息会议上启动降息周期。美联储内部对降息路径存在明显分歧。桑坦德银行首席美国经济学家斯蒂芬·斯坦利指出，部分官员主张多次降息，另一派仅支持单次调整，还有成员反对任何降息行动。他预测9月会议可能形成\"降息一次再观察\"的共识。德意志银行首席经济学家马修·卢泽蒂则认为，考虑到通胀与就业的双重风险，美联储更可能采取\"渐进式降息\"。政策制定者或将在9月启动降息，后续行动将严格依赖经济数据表现。这种分歧在官员公开表态中清晰可见。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克支持\"行动后观察\"策略，而克利夫兰联储主席哈马克明确表示若本周开会不会投票降息，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德甚至未排除加息可能性。鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上的讲话凸显政策困境：一方面承认劳动力市场下行风险加剧，另一方面警告关税带来的通胀压力可能持续。他强调政策调整需基于\"不完美信息\"，在数据明朗前采取行动。随着9月会议临近，美联储将发布最新经济预测。6月数据显示多数官员支持年内至少两次降息，但部分成员认为2025年应维持利率不变。白宫经济顾问委员会新成员米兰的参议院确认进程，可能进一步影响委员会决策动态。RSM首席经济学家布鲁苏拉斯指出，当前最大挑战在于平衡价格稳定与就业最大化双重目标。若就业数据持续恶化或通胀反弹，美联储可能被迫采取\"一次性调整\"策略，而非持续降息。明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利强调，在劳动力市场出现实质性恶化前，主动调整政策可能优于被动应对。他警告称，就业疲软若演变为衰退，其影响将比关税不确定性更为严重。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"policyRegulatory","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}