目标是5000点？摩根大通：美股创下历史新高已不可避免_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

目标是5000点？摩根大通：美股创下历史新高已不可避免

金十数据2023-08-02

目前，标普500指数距离历史新高仅一步之遥，分析师表示，两大潜在利好将证明美股创下新高是合理的……“标普500指数在2023年上半年的表现已经非常火爆，我们有理由相信，在这一点上，创下历史新高几乎是必然的”。以美国市场情报主管泰勒（Andrew Tyler）为首的摩根大通交易部门分析师在周二发给客户的一份报告中写道，股市看来将继续攀升，这在很大程度上要归功于有关增长和通胀的乐观消息。该报告称，“...

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JPMorgan Chase: It is inevitable that US stocks will hit a record high","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd04444e659a7d3d90b81f59cf4e131f","symbols_score_info":{".SPX":1},"content_text":"目前，标普500指数距离历史新高仅一步之遥，分析师表示，两大潜在利好将证明美股创下新高是合理的……“标普500指数在2023年上半年的表现已经非常火爆，我们有理由相信，在这一点上，创下历史新高几乎是必然的”。以美国市场情报主管泰勒（Andrew Tyler）为首的摩根大通交易部门分析师在周二发给客户的一份报告中写道，股市看来将继续攀升，这在很大程度上要归功于有关增长和通胀的乐观消息。该报告称，“随着8月份的到来，我们确实感到市场既普遍看涨，又普遍认为在恢复上升趋势之前会出现回调”。标普500指数周二收于4567.73点，距离2022年1月创下的创纪录收盘价4796.56点还差不到5%。分析师表示，尽管由于一些投资者担心美联储可能会破坏经济，近期股市出现了一些抛售，但最终仍有理由看涨。摩根大通写道，“确实有资金在观望，等待进入美国股市和其他地区股市的机会”，“考虑到宏观数据通常不会迅速恶化，股市出现技术性调整或更糟糕情况的可能性似乎不大”。换句话说，更多显示经济增长的数据和更高的业绩应该会推动股市进一步上涨。今年7月，美国CPI年率降至3%，虽然仍高于美联储2%的目标，但已远低于去年9.1%的峰值，这促使投资者纷纷涌入股市。分析师称，股市若要进一步走高，则需要在美联储不再加息的情况下，改善GDP增速和企业盈利。在他们看来，在高利率的环境下，企业盈利可能仍将超出预期，这为估值上升提供了理由，并可能进一步推动标普500指数创下远超纪录的新高。分析师们称，“突破历史高点感觉是不可避免的，这只是时间问题”。“也就是说，触及5000点不应该是一个意外，尤其是在宏观数据/经济周期的重新加速走高，而非仅仅是重启的情况下”。摩根大通表示，虽然8月和9月通常是表现较弱的月份，但任何短期回调都应该在股市上涨之后结束。与此同时，经济降温的更多迹象可能会阻止美联储进一步加息，这支持了人们对美国经济软着陆前景的看法，而就在几个月前，这种前景看起来还不太可能实现。iCapital首席投资策略师阿莫罗索（Anastasia Amoroso）周一也表示，标普500指数近期确实有可能创出历史新高。她解释说，经济不衰退的情况对股市来说是个好兆头。“只要缓慢但稳定的经济增长持续下去，企业盈利应该会传来好消息，甚至可能超出预期”，阿莫罗索表示，“美联储正在放缓或结束加息，这应该会支撑股票的市盈率。稳定的市盈率和实现的盈利预期应该足以证明标普500指数达到或超过4800点是合理的”。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}