“新债王”副手：美国经济仍或陷入衰退，“迟钝”美联储恐一口气降息100基点_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

“新债王”副手：美国经济仍或陷入衰退，“迟钝”美联储恐一口气降息100基点

华尔街见闻2023-07-26

“新债王”Jeffrey Gundlach副手、双线资本（DoubleLine Capital）的副首席投资官Jeffrey Sherman表示，市场应该为美国陷入严重衰退做好准备，他关注的众多经济指标要么发出警告，要么发出衰退信号，预计美联储届时将一口气猛降息1个百分点。本周美联储举行7月FOMC会议，市场普遍预计将加息25个基点，且这是本轮加息周期中的最后一次加息的预期颇为强烈。当前货币市场...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3694064><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“新债王”Jeffrey Gundlach副手、双线资本（DoubleLine Capital）的副首席投资官Jeffrey Sherman表示，市场应该为美国陷入严重衰退做好准备，他关注的众多经济指标要么发出警告，要么发出衰退信号，预计美联储届时将一口气猛降息1个百分点。本周美联储举行7月FOMC会议，市场普遍预计将加息25个基点，且这是本轮加息周期中的最后一次加息的预期颇为强烈。当前货币市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3694064\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"UDOW","symbol_name":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3694064","article_id":"2354344801","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec05cb96406c49ce42e4867d619e4d1c"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2354344801","pubTimestamp":1690316235,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_api","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"双线资本的副首席投资官Jeffrey 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Sherman表示，市场应该为美国陷入严重衰退做好准备，他关注的众多经济指标要么发出警告，要么发出衰退信号，预计美联储届时将一口气猛降息1个百分点。本周美联储举行7月FOMC会议，市场普遍预计将加息25个基点，且这是本轮加息周期中的最后一次加息的预期颇为强烈。当前货币市场押注美联储将在明年降息总计130个基点。与上述市场预期不同的是，Sherman认为美联储官员们将行动缓慢，然后不得不快速降息，例如在紧急会议上降息，推出自新冠疫情爆发以来的最大幅度降息。降息25或50个基点就能解决所有问题的想法，是不现实的。Sherman判断长期美债的收益率已见顶，认为长期政府债券是不错的投资标的，他正在买入10年期和30年期美国国债。当前10年期美债收益率为3.9%，在过去一年曾数次突破4%，而2年期美债收益率最新位于4.87%一线。长短期美债收益率的倒挂在历史上预示着经济将陷入衰退。Sherman指出，当前的债券市场告诉美联储，他们已经过度紧缩了，他们将不得不降息。Sherman以其自己开发的Sherman比率在债券领域闻名。Sherman比率是说，每单位久期的收益率是多少，以此衡量现在是否是购买债券的好时机。该指标越高，证明越是买债券的好时点。以彭博USAgg指数为例，它从两年前的0.21上升到当前的0.77，意思是一年内利率需要上涨77个基点才能抵消掉债券带来的收入。Sherman透露，他的投资组合中的Sherman比率接近1，这是近六年来的最佳水平。Sherman并不预计今年经济会出现明显的衰退，但认为在接下来的12到18个月内很可能会发生。他当前还持有短期投资级公司债券，因为认为现在放弃稳定的收益率并担心违约还为时过早，大多数优质公司都延长了债务期限。投资的杠铃结构，也即将投资组合划分为低风险和高风险策略，让双线资本现在可以在某种程度上放心地拥有信贷类资产。Sherman警告称，本轮违约周期很可能将由贷款市场而非高收益公司债券引领。高收益的再融资要到明年晚些时候才会出现攀升，而投资级信贷要到2025年才会出现。Sherman认为现在值得关注的一个信号是，贷款市场内部违约率的上升。这些贷款是浮动利率的，与固定利率市场相比，它们感受到了美联储加息的全面影响。“新债王”团队对美债市场的预判，与债券市场另一位风云人物老债王比尔·格罗斯（Bill Gross）观点并不一致。华尔街见闻网站上周文章介绍过，格罗斯在最新的投资展望中写道，虽然美债收益率今年可能已经见顶，但债券牛市不太可能到来。这令他与诸多投资者观点并不一致。格罗斯认为美债无法走牛的原因在于：在美联储缩表之际，美国政府的赤字飙升，加大了债市的供应压力。从历史上看，10年期美债收益率比联邦基金利率高出逾140个基点，以美联储预测的长期中性利率水平2.5%计算，对应的10年期收益率为3.9%。欧洲央行在遏制通胀方面比美联储有更多的工作要做，会推升美债收益率。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}