加息预期再降温！市场预计美国利率5月见顶，年底将降息75个基点_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

加息预期再降温！市场预计美国利率5月见顶，年底将降息75个基点

华尔街见闻2023-03-14

随着硅谷银行危机带来的动荡持续加深，掉期交易员预计，美联储本轮加息将在今年5月达到峰值，并在年底累计降息75个基点。隔夜指数互换(OIS)最新定价显示，交易员押注美联储政策利率将在5月会议达到4.83%左右的峰值，与当前水平相比，意味着美联储约还有25个基点的加息空间，之后到12月会议，则会有大约3次每次25个基点的降息。相比之下，上周五收盘水平显示市场预计政策利率将在6月会议达到5.30%的峰值...

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The market expects US interest rates to peak in May and cut interest rates by 75 basis points at the end of the year","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cceefb6c123e5b40107966df8e722a9","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"OIS":1,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SIVB":0.72,"UPRO":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6},"content_text":"随着硅谷银行危机带来的动荡持续加深，掉期交易员预计，美联储本轮加息将在今年5月达到峰值，并在年底累计降息75个基点。隔夜指数互换(OIS)最新定价显示，交易员押注美联储政策利率将在5月会议达到4.83%左右的峰值，与当前水平相比，意味着美联储约还有25个基点的加息空间，之后到12月会议，则会有大约3次每次25个基点的降息。相比之下，上周五收盘水平显示市场预计政策利率将在6月会议达到5.30%的峰值，而上周四显示在7月会议达到约5.5%的峰值。与12月会议挂钩的OIS已降至略高于4%，意味着从市场目前预期的5月峰值降息约80个基点，约等于三次每次25个基点的降息；12月OIS上周五收于4.90%。硅谷银行倒闭削弱了市场对美联储甚至全球央行更激进加息的押注。周一，市场对欧洲央行利率峰值的预期跌破了3.5％，对美联储下周加息幅度的预期不到14个基点，甚至预期美联储年底前降息50个基点。自2月21日以来，市场对英国央行利率峰值的定价首次跌破了4.5%。此前，美国硅谷银行宣布倒闭，美联储紧急出手救市，宣布推出一项名为银行定期融资计划（Bank Term Funding Program, BTFP) 的紧急融资工具，将向抵押美国国债、机构债务、抵押贷款支持证券 (MBS) 和其他合格资产的银行提供最长一年的贷款。市场押注，包括硅谷银行、Silvergate和Signature银行在内的倒闭将促使美联储大幅放缓加息步伐。高盛在最新发布的报告中指出，硅谷银行风波让鲍威尔意识到了加息对美国银行系统的压力，因此，预计美联储不会3月FOMC会议上加息。但同时，考虑到3月后，美国经济前景依然存在相当大的不确定性，维持美联储将在5月、6月和7月加息25个基点的预期不变，预计利率峰值较此前下降25个基点至5.25-5.5%。“熊市陷阱报告”的作者 Larry McDonald 日前表示，硅谷银行倒闭可能会促使美联储在今年12月前降息100个基点，以防止危机在金融体系中蔓延。 这将标志美联储为遏制通胀而大举收紧货币政策的路线出现重大逆转。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}