高盛：美股牛市将很快结束，标普500将再跌15%_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

高盛：美股牛市将很快结束，标普500将再跌15%

腾讯证券2020-03-11

投资银行高盛首席美股策略师大卫·科斯汀（David Kostin）周三表示，美国历史上持续时间最长的牛市将很快走向终结，美股将经历比过去三周更大的损失。科斯汀在今日发布的研报中称，利率的历史性下跌不太可能阻止第二和第三季度企业利润的“崩溃”，并建议客户将投资转向收益稳定、资产负债表稳健的公司。 “过去11年，标普500成分股的年化利润增幅达到13%，股价年化增幅达到16%，我们认为标普500...

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四哥
·2020-03-11
高盛，看热闹的不闲事大
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牛屎
·2020-03-11
再来两个熔断就够了
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特斯拉笑
·2020-03-11
这么悲观？那可难办了
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Vinsa8
·2020-03-11
这咋整哦[流泪]
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Vinsa8
·2020-03-11
OM$微软(MSFT)$$苹果(AAPL)$$谷歌(GOOG)$
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Kostin）周三表示，美国历史上持续时间最长的牛市将很快走向终结，美股将经历比过去三周更大的损失。\n科斯汀在今日发布的研报中称，利率的历史性下跌不太可能阻止第二和第三季度企业利润的“崩溃”，并建议客户将投资转向收益稳定、资产负债表稳健的公司。\n“过去11年，标普500成分股的年化利润增幅达到13%，股价年化增幅达到16%，我们认为标普500...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.qq.com/a/20200311/077411.htm\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":null,"symbol_name":null,"start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.qq.com/a/20200311/077411.htm","article_id":"1181432619","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b817fec86a26e1ff62f50642654e6f7"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181432619","pubTimestamp":1583936558,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"txzq","name":"腾讯证券"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"投资银行高盛首席美股策略师大卫·科斯汀（David 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Kostin）周三表示，美国历史上持续时间最长的牛市将很快走向终结，美股将经历比过去三周更大的损失。\n科斯汀在今日发布的研报中称，利率的历史性下跌不太可能阻止第二和第三季度企业利润的“崩溃”，并建议客户将投资转向收益稳定、资产负债表稳健的公司。\n“过去11年，标普500成分股的年化利润增幅达到13%，股价年化增幅达到16%，我们认为标普500成分股的牛市将很快结束。投资者最近几周已减持了股票，但没有达到本轮其他重大调整的低点，”科斯汀在研报中表示。\n科斯汀把标普500指数的年中目标位下调至2450点，意味着该投行认为该指数会较周二的收盘点位再下跌15%，接近于2018年12月的点位。也就是说，高盛当前预计，在过去一个月下跌14%的基础上，市场将再下跌15%。\n标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数当前均较2月份创出的历史最高收盘点位下跌了逾14%。最近几周，随着新型肺炎疫情在全球蔓延并威胁到工作场所的生产率，全球投资者都在抛售股票。一些人担心，疫情对产出的影响可能非常严重，会让一些国家的经济陷入衰退，这也是造成市场波动的主要原因之一。自2月份以来，美国股市每天的波动幅度从未低于1%。道指周一下跌超过2000点，创下自2008年金融危机以来的单日最大跌幅。不过该股指在周二反弹近5%，部分的收复失地。\n“实体经济和金融经济都显示出紧张的迹象，”科斯汀表示。“供应链已经中断，许多行业的终端需求也出现了下降。由于个人和企业都限制行动，旅行正在急剧收缩。航班、酒店、游轮和赌场的需求、入住骤降。员工被迫休假。”\n但伴随着对经济的广泛担忧，股市的损失因行业而异。科斯汀表示，他对2020年盈利疲软的预测取决于油价和利率的下滑，这“减少了能源和金融公司的利润”。这两个行业的表现逊于大盘，原因是原油价格暴跌打击了能源类股，长期利率暴跌威胁到银行利润率。“在这两个行业之外，美国商业活动也可能比我们最初预测的要弱，最近几周许多公司撤销或下调业绩展望，就凸显了这一点，”科斯汀说。\n在欧佩克（OPEC）未能说服俄罗斯减产原油之后，跟踪美国最大能源生产商表现的能源股ETF（Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund）本周下跌了23.9%。失败的谈判反过来又引发西德克萨斯中质原油价格下跌25%，以及能源股股价的大幅下跌。西方石油公司（Occidental Petroleum）和马拉松石油公司（Marathon Oil）是上月标普500指数成分股中表现最糟糕的两家公司，股价跌幅均超过60%。\n与此同时，长期利率跌至创纪录低点，导致追踪美国大银行的交易所交易基金螺旋式下跌，SPDR S&P Bank ETF今年已下跌30%。自今年年初以来，摩根大通和花旗集团的股价分别下跌了27%和30%。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":965172353,"gmtCreate":1583940106272,"gmtModify":1704351692229,"author":{"id":"3434977424901502","authorId":"3434977424901502","name":"四哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5cd2b5dec9a0e8148596c6bcd2e19d2","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3434977424901502","authorIdStr":"3434977424901502"},"htmlText":"高盛，看热闹的不闲事大","listText":"高盛，看热闹的不闲事大","text":"高盛，看热闹的不闲事大","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/965172353","repostId":1181432619,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":965176028,"gmtCreate":1583939966764,"gmtModify":1704351690177,"author":{"id":"3482407138688576","authorId":"3482407138688576","name":"牛屎","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3482407138688576","authorIdStr":"3482407138688576"},"htmlText":"再来两个熔断就够了","listText":"再来两个熔断就够了","text":"再来两个熔断就够了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/965176028","repostId":1181432619,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":965140974,"gmtCreate":1583938085499,"gmtModify":1704351672900,"author":{"id":"3489268165016267","authorId":"3489268165016267","name":"特斯拉 笑","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/37afcbcb23be14369e05e79b3d9969cf","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3489268165016267","authorIdStr":"3489268165016267"},"htmlText":"这么悲观？那可难办了","listText":"这么悲观？那可难办了","text":"这么悲观？那可难办了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/965140974","repostId":1181432619,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":965151497,"gmtCreate":1583937536819,"gmtModify":1704351664024,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3486352703133754","authorIdStr":"3486352703133754"},"htmlText":"这咋整哦[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"这咋整哦[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"这咋整哦[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/965151497","repostId":1181432619,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":965151037,"gmtCreate":1583937445029,"gmtModify":1704351663511,"author":{"id":"3486352703133754","authorId":"3486352703133754","name":"Vinsa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa0eb0aaff159d9b2509af8452bc77f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3486352703133754","authorIdStr":"3486352703133754"},"htmlText":"OM<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$</a>","listText":"OM<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$</a>","text":"OM$微软(MSFT)$$苹果(AAPL)$$谷歌(GOOG)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/965151037","repostId":1181432619,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}