蚂蚁IPO定价，二级市场上涨空间还有多大？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

蚂蚁IPO定价，二级市场上涨空间还有多大？

财经五月花2020-10-27

此前多家投行预测蚂蚁集团IPO估值在2.5万亿元—3万亿元之间，IPO定价较市场预测价格已经折让20%—30%左右。也有投资者认为，静态市盈率96.48倍对二级市场投资者不够“友好”。被预测将在11月初就能上市的蚂蚁集团，其在10月末期注定不再平静。“经过近1万个机构账户询价，最终A股发行价确定为每股68.8元，总市值2.1万亿元。”10月26日晚，备受市场高度关注的蚂蚁集团IPO初步询价完成。...

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嫑賣C
·2020-10-27
说白了就是一级市场配合割散户韭菜呗
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邓大佬
·2020-10-27
蚂蚁已变大象，猪养肥了才卖，还指望大象变鲸鱼？能保持在河马就不错了。蚂蚁不缺钱还上市，目的只为圈钱，为马云跟随者谋福利，多好的老板啊！
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jackiee
·2020-10-27
2020年上半年就完成2019年全年利润，这个跟疫情绝对有影响，大家更多的进行网购了
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1
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猛逃
·2020-10-27
有点疯[吃瓜]
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苟富贵勿相忘
·2020-10-27
马氏骗局
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1
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明明要翻倍
·2020-10-27
信你个鬼！股民在八层融资。。。早就没有空间了！！坐等中石油再现
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一盖
·2020-10-27
全球最大的蚂蚁来了，喜忧参半。有时候巨大的生物看起来很可怕，尤其昆虫类
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- 猛逃:
  🐜怪兽👾
  2020-10-27
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Ten_Yea_0873
·2020-10-27
配的额满了
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文博大都督
·2020-10-27
应当不会破发马云等着你打新赚的钱双11消费还给他呢
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- nemolei:
  赚谁的钱？你去接盘？
  2020-10-27
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我是陈呼呼
·2020-10-27
阅
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文博大都督
·2020-10-27
股价能稳定下来就好
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Wabin
·2020-10-27
阿里不抵两个腾讯了？
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Mark1104
·2020-10-27
还有个毛线，资本吸血鬼
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-10-27
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紫光企業管理諮詢
·2020-10-27
马云遮一下发财了，直接亚洲首富了
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Rise?","themeId":"f429a0a2a7fa409ab541efddd1c758c1","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cb0da464803002c3493507ff164d511","symbols_score_info":{"06688":0.9,"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9},"content_text":"此前多家投行预测蚂蚁集团IPO估值在2.5万亿元—3万亿元之间，IPO定价较市场预测价格已经折让20%—30%左右。也有投资者认为，静态市盈率96.48倍对二级市场投资者不够“友好”。被预测将在11月初就能上市的蚂蚁集团，其在10月末期注定不再平静。“经过近1万个机构账户询价，最终A股发行价确定为每股68.8元，总市值2.1万亿元。”10月26日晚，备受市场高度关注的蚂蚁集团IPO初步询价完成。港股的发行价也于同日公布，为80港元，刨除汇率影响后与A股基本持平。此前，多家投行预测蚂蚁集团约2.5万亿-3万亿元估值，为此，其总市值折让幅度约20%-30%。照IPO价格计算，本次蚂蚁集团A+H股发行募资最高达2600亿元（包括初始发行新股及全额行使超额配售选择权）。当日，蚂蚁在科创板IPO的战略投资者构成也对外公布，其中涵盖国内外29家顶级投资者，包括顶级主权基金，国内顶尖保险公司、银行、大型国企以及民营企业等，将为A股带来稳定的长线资金。分析指出，蚂蚁在科创板上市引入增量投资者，有利于扩大科创板的投资者基础，吸引更多的优质标的在科创板上市。价格留有一定空间蚂蚁IPO着实受到市场追捧。其中，参与蚂蚁IPO初步询价的机构投资账户近1万家，符合资质的配售对象超7000家，接近两倍于科创板平均水平。此外，六家全球顶级主权基金也参与了蚂蚁A股战略配售。在一位投行人士看来，蚂蚁的定价还是符合预期且给二级市场留有一定空间，“定价主要受公司基本面、同行业上市公司市场表现、资金供求关系等因素影响，具体给二级市场留有多大空间很难说，因为影响二级市场股价的因素很多，包括宏观经济环境、公司自身因素、资金供求关系等等。”二级市场投资者也持有不同的看法，“从目前蚂蚁定价来看，一级市场投资者是赚钱了，对二级市场投资者并不‘友好’。”一位资本市场投资者向《财经》记者感慨。以社保基金为例，2015年，社保基金以75亿元人民币入股蚂蚁，认购近7亿股。按蚂蚁A股发行价计算，这笔投资目前价值超过480亿元，五年时间增长近7倍。近日，全国社保基金副理事长陈文辉在外滩金融峰会表示，希望蚂蚁多给一些战配额度，为全国人民多赚点养老钱。此次，全国社保基金追加投资蚂蚁70亿元，认购超1亿股蚂蚁新股，成为除阿里集团外认购金额最大的战略投资者。发行方案显示，蚂蚁将在A股发行不超过16.7亿股的新股，其中初始战略配售股票数13.4亿股，供机构和个人投资者“打新”股票数3.34亿股（绿鞋机制前）。按照每股价格计算，绿鞋前A股募资总规模为1150亿元，其中面向A股机构和个人投资者的“打新”规模超过220亿元。根据上市发行安排，蚂蚁的网上“打新”申购将在10月29日进行。值得注意的是，根据上交所公告，本次蚂蚁集团IPO定价为68.8元/股，对应的静态市盈率（静态市盈率=每股收益/股价，每股收益以2019年归母净利润除以发行前总股本计算得出）为96.48倍。同时，根据中金、摩根士丹利、花旗、摩根大通等主要投行的盈利预测，蚂蚁未来两年（2022年）预期市盈率仅24倍。发行静态市盈率远远高于预期市盈率，让部分二级投资者认为蚂蚁集团这个定价不够“友好”。金融行业资深分析师王蓬博对《财经》记者分析，上述各投行给出的预期市盈率是用预期每股收益除以预期股价得出，预测市盈率下降说明投行预期的股价增速低于净利润增速。此外，王蓬博强调，科技股通常不看市盈率，单纯用市盈率来对蚂蚁集团估值也是不合适的。“就算用市盈率也是动态市盈率，蚂蚁净利润增速很快，一年增一倍，动态市盈率的估值就合理不少了。”实际上，此前多家投行预测蚂蚁集团IPO估值在2.5万亿元—3万亿元之间，IPO定价较市场预测价格已经折让20%—30%左右。“（这个定价）在合理区间吧，也给二级市场留了空间，”资深投行人士王骥跃接受《财经》记者采访时评价：“2018年中期那轮融资估值1500亿美元，两年时间到2800亿美元，考虑到从数字金融开始转向数字生活再到数字中国，想象空间还是有的，估值略高但也不算太离谱。”“蚂蚁还在快速成长期，而且可以说是A股第一个也是唯一一个世界级新经济公司，具有稀缺性，给个较高的估值是合理可接受的。”他进一步补充道。值得注意的是，蚂蚁集团网下申购火爆。上交所公告显示，蚂蚁的初步询价拟申购总量超760亿股，网下整体申购倍数达284倍。另据媒体报道，香港券商人士透露，香港发行开始仅1个小时，大部分港股机构发行部分已经超售。对此，一位投行人士向《财经》记者证实，大型投资者具有持有份额多、持有周期时间长等特点，所以，小型机构想要拿到蚂蚁的份额就比较苦难，甚至还要找关系。高成长压力犹存尽管IPO大热，市场预期持续向好，蚂蚁集团仍有不少“成长的烦恼”。“它（蚂蚁集团）最大的挑战来自于政策，”王蓬博向《财经》记者介绍：“不管是金融科技还是金融，最重要的一定是政策。”蚂蚁集团的招股书中提到，金融监管的相关法律、法规和规章制度高度复杂，且不断变化，如近期发布的《最高人民法院关于修改〈关于审理民间借贷案件适用法律若干问题的规定〉的决定》《商业银行互联网贷款管理暂行办法》《关于实施金融控股公司准入管理的决定》《金融控股公司监督管理试行办法》等，可能会提高公司合规的难度，增加公司的合规成本。除政策因素外，蚂蚁集团也面临着来自竞争对手的压力。“很多人以为支付业务的竞争结束了，其实还没有，”王蓬博告诉《财经》记者：“从去年开始监管一直在推条码支付互联互通，这可能会破坏蚂蚁已经构建起来的支付生态圈。”2019年，央行印发《金融科技（FinTech）发展规划（2019—2021年）》，提出“推动条码支付互联互通，研究制定条码支付互联互通技术标准，统一条码支付编码规则、构建条码支付互联互通技术体系，打通条码支付服务壁垒，实现不同APP和商户条码标识互认互扫”。今年1月，中国银行和交通银行手机银行上的银联二维码已经实现与微信二维码的互联互通。此前，有支付行业人士曾告诉《财经》记者，线下扫码支付产生的商户流量和商户数据与金融业务协同能够实现很好的变现，某家第三方支付巨头的信贷业务中，甚至能够用到竞争对手的支付数据，原因就是B端商户收款时使用的是该巨头的线下收单服务。“现在美团、今日头条等公司都获得了支付牌照，他们本身就有不错的流量，等补全支付能力之后，将对支付宝形成不小的挑战。”王蓬博表示。一位资本市场研究者向《财经》记者表示，蚂蚁在技术应用方面做的非常好，但是在技术研发方面还需要进一步提升，作为我国金融领域非常重要的拓展者、创新者和引领者，蚂蚁应该投入更多的资源到技术研发领域，以推动我国高科技企业的研发和创新。“所有的企业都会面临不确定性和风险，其高度风险期过了意味着它的品牌价值已经被社会和市场所认同了，在高度风险期过了之后，蚂蚁就应该考虑如何进一步的完善自身服务。”招股书披露，2020 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