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接拍帮主提示，港大梁老师估算北京11-12月份疫情传播系数的文献已经上传medrxiv。

部分数据参考微博@伊洛牧及本公号投票结果，请大家欣赏共同参与的作品。

Abstract

We tracked the effective reproduction number Rt of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BF.7 in Beijing in November – December 2022 by fitting a transmission dynamic model parameterized with real-time mobility data to (i) the daily number of new symptomatic cases on November 1-11 (when the zero-covid interventions were still strictly enforced) and (ii) the proportion of individuals who participated in online polls on December 10-22 and self-reported to have been previously test-positive since November 1. After the announcement of “20 measures”, we estimated that Rt increased to 3.44 (95% CrI: 2.82 – 4.14) on November 18 and the infection incidence peaked on December 11. The cumulative infection attack rate (i.e. the proportion of population who have been infected since November 1) was 43.1% (95% CrI: 25.6 – 60.9) on December 14 and 75.7% (95% CrI: 60.7 – 84.4) on December 22. Surveillance programmes should be rapidly set up to monitor the evolving epidemiology and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 across China.

该文献提示Rt为3.44，跟之前吹的18、20差距巨大，后者显然也是不可能的，也早有文章驳斥过。所谓“R0=18.6”，到底是什么鬼？

其实，过往流调也能看出奥密克戎初期的传播系数奥密克戎在国内真实世界传播力研究

有些人，放开前高呼传播系数高防不住，对疾病后果又盲目乐观，小感冒、mild、不会医疗挤兑，要求立刻放开。

真放开后重症死人多被教育，又转化为十足的悲观主义，无视不少家庭成功阻断传播，无视第一轮后不少人已经有一定免疫屏障的事实，还是高呼防不住，消极厌世拜病毒，一些成本极低的简单防疫措施都不愿意实施。自己放飞自我作为传染源也罢了，对学校、医院合理的防疫措施建议也冷嘲热讽，真让人感觉新冠病毒才是这种人亲人。

请大家明白，在经历过一遍大范围感染后，大部分都有了一定预存免疫，后续的防疫防控压力会远远下降，希望大家打起精神，每个人都努力降低感染压力，减轻传播系数，尽可能保护好社会中比较脆弱的人群，也减轻医护的诊疗压力。

也希望大家一起向教委提意见，学校必要的空气净化器等措施还是需要的。