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2021-12-07

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Tesla: Watch The Expectations Gap

Summary Analysts seem to have another very low bar for Q4. China sales this week could send estimat

Tesla: Watch The Expectations Gap

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":606275183,"tweetId":"606275183","gmtCreate":1638889286673,"gmtModify":1638889286785,"author":{"id":3582782817523238,"authorId":3582782817523238,"authorIdStr":"3582782817523238","name":"HHTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8134085c63f43886300c1e18d3ab40c","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":10,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Please like</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Please like</p></body></html>","text":"Please like","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606275183","repostId":1110462970,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110462970","pubTimestamp":1638885364,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1110462970?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-07 21:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Watch The Expectations Gap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110462970","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAnalysts seem to have another very low bar for Q4.\nChina sales this week could send estimat","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Analysts seem to have another very low bar for Q4.</li>\n <li>China sales this week could send estimates a bit higher.</li>\n <li>Stock found support at the 50-day moving average.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05182de408d062899fb5a4dd4fbe057\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Shares of electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA) have been under pressure recently. The latest leg down can mostly be attributed to US markets heading lower in anticipation of the Federal Reserve speeding up its taper plan this month. On Monday, bears likely felt in control early as&nbsp;news of a SEC probe&nbsp;sent the stock into bear territory and below $1,000 early in the day. However, bears have to be careful as the stock found support at a key moving average, and the street's low Q4 estimate bar could set up the stock to rally again.</p>\n<p>As I've detailed in&nbsp;a number of recent quarters, analyst expectations for Tesla seem to be almost comically low at times. Let me remind you that the company reported Q3 revenues of $13.76 billion, and this was without the latest leg of the Shanghai factory expansion or new Model X units going out to customers. Take a look at the current revenue estimate graphic below for Q4.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743b49627fa77bcbd957848fd529ec6d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"69\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha estimates page</span></p>\n<p>How does even the most bearish out there see the company reporting a nearly $400 million sequential decline in revenues? I bring this up because the current street average calls for Tesla to deliver about 263,000 vehicles in Q4, more than 20,000 above Q3. Unless the company has some massive decline in average selling prices, even calling for a sequential revenue rise of only say half a billion dollars in Q4 with that many more deliveries seems a bit out of touch with reality.</p>\n<p>I bring this potentially large expectations gap up yet again because notable Tesla watcher Troy Teslike is&nbsp;currently calling for&nbsp;280,000 deliveries in this year's final period, which would blow out current street estimates. While you might think this number seems a bit high, Troy is actually being quite conservative with his numbers, because as the graphic below shows, he is actually calling for Q4 production to top 300,000 vehicles.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25f4d8f21fec08d8cefe456f0215365a\" tg-width=\"513\" tg-height=\"503\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Troy Teslike Twitter page linked above</span></p>\n<p>Troy sees a bunch of deliveries slipping into Q1 for a few reasons. First, the company is finally making a strong effort to unwind its delivery wave, which normally results in a massive late quarter push to deliver vehicles. This would push several thousand units, mostly exports from China, into early next year. Second, he sees US buyers trying to wait until January 2022 to take delivery in anticipation that the new EV tax credit will be passed this month and go into effect sometime around January 1st. Finally, on a much smaller scale, any vehicles produced later this month coming out of the new Texas or Berlin factories will be finished too late in the period to be delivered to consumers before the end of December.</p>\n<p>Troy's optimism mostly comes from numbers out of China, where&nbsp;sales including export&nbsp;stopped 54,300 units in October. Three months at that pace is over 163,000 vehicles in Q4, and usually, the last two months of the quarter could be stronger than the first depending on the delivery wave. Throw in Fremont representing around 115,000 deliveries per quarter as Troy has been detailing, and you're in the ballpark of Troy, or even my current estimate that's a little under 278,000. These numbers seem justified when you see how Europe's first two months of Q4 have seen solid improvement over Q3 levels as seen below, with two countries' estimates still not in yet.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b974f148247ec6b37449bdbe0eaec7de\" tg-width=\"396\" tg-height=\"431\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TMC Europe stats</span></p>\n<p>Perhaps this coming week or so will be the catalyst for the expectation gap to close. The November Tesla China numbers will be released soon, and most expectations are calling for a sequential rise over October's level. If we get a print that's 60,000 or so, it's going to be hard for analysts to not raise their numbers as we get closer to the early January Tesla production and delivery report. Positive analyst notes would likely help support the stock a bit, assuming the market doesn't plunge again. It also helps that Elon Musk's stock sales have slowed a bit recently, so&nbsp;that current overhang&nbsp;could be close to ending soon.</p>\n<p>As for Tesla shares, they bounced back a bit as Monday continued, with the tech sector reversing early losses. While Tesla still finished red for the day, it was able to close nicely above its 50-day moving average seen in the chart below (purple line). This will be seen as a positive for those interested in technical factors, with bulls seeing that short-term trend line providing support for the stock. Should the stock drop below the 50-day and stay there, and we see that key line start to roll over, talk about the stock dropping down to the 200-day (red line) would then start to increase.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5783192d2b3e55c459299295b4ec2f7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yahoo! Finance</span></p>\n<p>I should point out the three biggest risks for Tesla in the short term despite the currently positive setup. First, any additional news of SEC investigations could be troubling, especially with Elon Musk's checkered past and settlement agreement. Second, larger-than-expected stock sales from the CEO could get investors a bit jittery about the longer-term future. Finally, an overall market pullback on an accelerated Fed tapering plan would likely hurt the stock and many other high growth names as we've seen at times in recent days.</p>\n<p>While Tesla shares are currently more than $200 off their all-time high, bears need to be careful of a substantial expectations gap. Despite numbers out of China and Europe looking good so far in Q4, analysts aren't yet talking about a major sequential jump in quarterly deliveries. Good news out of China in the coming days should lead to estimates rising, but it also likely will provide some support for the stock. Holding the 50-day on Monday was a short-term positive, and as long as the market stays fairly steady, these factors could lead to some near-term upside.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Watch The Expectations Gap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Watch The Expectations Gap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-07 21:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4473716-tesla-watch-the-expectations-gap><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAnalysts seem to have another very low bar for Q4.\nChina sales this week could send estimates a bit higher.\nStock found support at the 50-day moving average.\n\nRobert Way/iStock Editorial via ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4473716-tesla-watch-the-expectations-gap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4473716-tesla-watch-the-expectations-gap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110462970","content_text":"Summary\n\nAnalysts seem to have another very low bar for Q4.\nChina sales this week could send estimates a bit higher.\nStock found support at the 50-day moving average.\n\nRobert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nShares of electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA) have been under pressure recently. The latest leg down can mostly be attributed to US markets heading lower in anticipation of the Federal Reserve speeding up its taper plan this month. On Monday, bears likely felt in control early as news of a SEC probe sent the stock into bear territory and below $1,000 early in the day. However, bears have to be careful as the stock found support at a key moving average, and the street's low Q4 estimate bar could set up the stock to rally again.\nAs I've detailed in a number of recent quarters, analyst expectations for Tesla seem to be almost comically low at times. Let me remind you that the company reported Q3 revenues of $13.76 billion, and this was without the latest leg of the Shanghai factory expansion or new Model X units going out to customers. Take a look at the current revenue estimate graphic below for Q4.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha estimates page\nHow does even the most bearish out there see the company reporting a nearly $400 million sequential decline in revenues? I bring this up because the current street average calls for Tesla to deliver about 263,000 vehicles in Q4, more than 20,000 above Q3. Unless the company has some massive decline in average selling prices, even calling for a sequential revenue rise of only say half a billion dollars in Q4 with that many more deliveries seems a bit out of touch with reality.\nI bring this potentially large expectations gap up yet again because notable Tesla watcher Troy Teslike is currently calling for 280,000 deliveries in this year's final period, which would blow out current street estimates. While you might think this number seems a bit high, Troy is actually being quite conservative with his numbers, because as the graphic below shows, he is actually calling for Q4 production to top 300,000 vehicles.\nSource: Troy Teslike Twitter page linked above\nTroy sees a bunch of deliveries slipping into Q1 for a few reasons. First, the company is finally making a strong effort to unwind its delivery wave, which normally results in a massive late quarter push to deliver vehicles. This would push several thousand units, mostly exports from China, into early next year. Second, he sees US buyers trying to wait until January 2022 to take delivery in anticipation that the new EV tax credit will be passed this month and go into effect sometime around January 1st. Finally, on a much smaller scale, any vehicles produced later this month coming out of the new Texas or Berlin factories will be finished too late in the period to be delivered to consumers before the end of December.\nTroy's optimism mostly comes from numbers out of China, where sales including export stopped 54,300 units in October. Three months at that pace is over 163,000 vehicles in Q4, and usually, the last two months of the quarter could be stronger than the first depending on the delivery wave. Throw in Fremont representing around 115,000 deliveries per quarter as Troy has been detailing, and you're in the ballpark of Troy, or even my current estimate that's a little under 278,000. These numbers seem justified when you see how Europe's first two months of Q4 have seen solid improvement over Q3 levels as seen below, with two countries' estimates still not in yet.\nSource: TMC Europe stats\nPerhaps this coming week or so will be the catalyst for the expectation gap to close. The November Tesla China numbers will be released soon, and most expectations are calling for a sequential rise over October's level. If we get a print that's 60,000 or so, it's going to be hard for analysts to not raise their numbers as we get closer to the early January Tesla production and delivery report. Positive analyst notes would likely help support the stock a bit, assuming the market doesn't plunge again. It also helps that Elon Musk's stock sales have slowed a bit recently, so that current overhang could be close to ending soon.\nAs for Tesla shares, they bounced back a bit as Monday continued, with the tech sector reversing early losses. While Tesla still finished red for the day, it was able to close nicely above its 50-day moving average seen in the chart below (purple line). This will be seen as a positive for those interested in technical factors, with bulls seeing that short-term trend line providing support for the stock. Should the stock drop below the 50-day and stay there, and we see that key line start to roll over, talk about the stock dropping down to the 200-day (red line) would then start to increase.\nSource: Yahoo! Finance\nI should point out the three biggest risks for Tesla in the short term despite the currently positive setup. First, any additional news of SEC investigations could be troubling, especially with Elon Musk's checkered past and settlement agreement. Second, larger-than-expected stock sales from the CEO could get investors a bit jittery about the longer-term future. Finally, an overall market pullback on an accelerated Fed tapering plan would likely hurt the stock and many other high growth names as we've seen at times in recent days.\nWhile Tesla shares are currently more than $200 off their all-time high, bears need to be careful of a substantial expectations gap. Despite numbers out of China and Europe looking good so far in Q4, analysts aren't yet talking about a major sequential jump in quarterly deliveries. Good news out of China in the coming days should lead to estimates rising, but it also likely will provide some support for the stock. Holding the 50-day on Monday was a short-term positive, and as long as the market stays fairly steady, these factors could lead to some near-term upside.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":600,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}