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2021-02-19

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Palantir: Buy The Dip

Summary Palantir posted solid revenue, but missed on earnings. The future forecast was a bit disapp

Palantir: Buy The Dip

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The future forecast was a bit disapp","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir posted solid revenue, but missed on earnings. The future forecast was a bit disappointing.</li>\n <li>Palantir is expecting 30% year-over-year revenue growth after posting 47% growth for 2020.</li>\n <li>Palantir continues to grow its client base across multiple industries.</li>\n <li>Palantir's lock-up period ends on February 19th. Place your bets!</li>\n</ul>\nOne of the hotter stocks as of late is recent Direct Listing, Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR). Some investors were expecting the company was expected to release blowout earnings today and fell short of that. The company did post incredible revenue growth, and the path forward looks bright as well. However, investors were disappointed with just how bright that picture is according to the company. The stock is falling leading up to the end of the lock-up period as expected. Next week will tell a better story as to where this stock is headed. If you are feeling risky, jump aboard.\nWho Are They?\nIf you are like me, you likely had no idea who this company was or what they did. Well, Palantir Technologies Inc. has been around since 2003 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado. In short,they build and deploy software platforms for the intelligence community in the USA to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations.\nPalantir Gothamis a software program that identifies patterns hidden deep within datasets. This helps execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform. This was used in the efforts to help those in need in hurricane Florence in 2018. Palantir Gothamcombined publicly available flood data with weather information and social vulnerability census data to find the communities in greatest needand resources were deployed appropriately. More recently, they are providing the U.S. government with coronavirus tracking software.\nThe company also provides Palantir Foundry,a platform that transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data; and allows individual users to integrate and analyze the data they need in one place.\nPretty cool hey?\nWhat Is Driving The Company?\nRevenue. This is a growth play, plain and simple. Looking below we can see what is forecasted down the pipe. The missing block is 2020, which we found out todaywas $1.1 billion. That is a ~47% increase year-over-year. Going forward, analysts are projecting the pace stays heavy at 35%+ per year revenue growth. Often we consider 20% being strong, so that makes this look really good. For the fourth quarter, the company posted $322.1 million in revenue for the quarter, which was a beat by 20%.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2926257ca97794e55159ce8c6021a745\" tg-width=\"2978\" tg-height=\"992\">\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nThe shock came from theloss per share which totaled $0.08 versus the positive $0.02 consensus. The stock fell over 12% today on the earnings news. Upon diving deeper, it would appear most investors were disappointed with the forward forecasts. I personally think they are sandbagging a bit to blow away consensus down the line, but time will tell how true that is. Based on everything the company had put out in terms of news, which is nicely outlined inJohn Rhodes article : Palantir: Potential Q4 Revenue Blowoutmost people expected the revenue beat, but the action in the stock over the last week showed otherwise.\nData has become more relevant to the average person than ever before. The local news has all kinds of data on it when it comes to COVID-19.In 2020, Palantir helped 100 commercial organizations and 10 national governments respond to COVID-19. This has been a large opportunity for Palantir, and they have not squandered it. This response has helped earn thema 2-year contract for U.K. health services work worth $31.5 million. In the fourth quarter alone, the company signed21 deals worth more than $5 million. 12 of which were worth $10 million or more. Revenue growth will continue to be the future of Palantir.\nSome of the best business going is government business. For the year, Palantir saw56% of their revenue or $610 million come from government contracts. While the commercial side saw higher year-over-year growth at 107%, a 77% increase in government-based revenue isn't anything to laugh at. One of the more impressive pieces was that we saw happen with the average customer.Revenue increased by 41% year-over-year. Up to $7.9 million per customer from $5.6 million. This is an important metric to keep an eye on as customers hand more and more business over to Palantir as they continue to develop and improve their systems. The other factor playing into this is Palantir pulling larger customers into the fold. The new customers acquired in 2020, generated $42 million in revenue.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9284f5fd3e26d0c55fcd9b2f6355371e\" tg-width=\"1752\" tg-height=\"983\">\n(Company Presentation)\nSo all of this and we still sit down 12% today? As I mentioned above, it was the forward forecasts that people were a bit shocked at. Palantir said toexpect revenue growth in excess of 30% for 2021. This would be fantastic news for most companies, but after you just posted a 47% growth year, it is a bit saddening. But as I said, I think they are sandbagging a bit. Analysts are still projecting about a 35% increase for 2021. Something tells me they will outdo that as the year goes on. The company did state that they are targeting $4 billion in revenue by 2025, which carrying 30% per year growth from here will get you. I fully expect that number to creep closer to $5 billion based on current projections. Palantir is going after the \"big fish\" across multiple industries.8 of their customers fall into the Fortune 100, and 12 of the Global 100. As their products continue to develop and improve, their bottom line is only going to get better. I think there is a lot of room to run here in the long term.\nWhat Are The Risks?\nOne of the up-and-coming risks is the lock-up period ending, which I will touch on below. Besides that, I will look at the government contracts. Yes, they are some of the most important, but that's not to say they come without risk. In the past, Palantir has said they need to focus more so on commercial customers to help the bottom line and to turn a profit (part of the reason for the earnings sell-off). As we can see, they have landed some big-time commercial clients, but that government aspect still exists.\nSomething to keep in mind as well is that dealing with the government can lead to crossing some lines that some are not okay with. As reported by the Washington Post,in 2018, more than 200 employees signed a letter to CEO Alex Karp, citing concerns over a partnership with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Multiple other big tech companies have been forced to cut ties with government agencies in the past over potential human rights violations.\nThat said, I do really think the company will continue to do very well in the commercial sector and well reduce the overall government exposure overtime.\nWhat's The \"Lock-Up Period\"?\nThe one concern many have had with Palantir is the lock-up period, which ends on February 19th (Friday). Typically, this is where we will see the lows kick in on IPO's that go this route, but it is not always the case.\n<blockquote>\n Looking at 15 stocks that sawtheir lock-up periods expire in the first two weeks of October, the majority of shares started to fall in the days before the expiration date, prior to bouncing back three to five days afterwards. However, some saw virtually no selling pressure on the day and the share price immediately climbed once the lock-up had ended.\n</blockquote>\nWhat is it? Well in short, instead of an IPO where new shares of the company are created and are underwritten by an intermediary, we have a Direct Listing. This is wherethe business sells shares directly to the public without the help of any intermediaries. It does not involve any underwriters or other intermediaries, there are no new shares issued. This means the largest shareholders in the business can only freely sell their shares after the IPO lock-up expiration. Spotify (SPOT) and Slack (WORK) are two examples of companies that went the Direct Listing route. That said, neither of these companies had lock-up periods for employees.\nSo what does this mean? Well, given thatMarketWatch said:\n<blockquote>\n For Palantir, though, years of venture-capital investments have created more than enough shares to launch public trading: roughly 1.64 billion, though that grows to 2.17 billion in a fully diluted formula that includes vesting options.\n</blockquote>\nIt means that with roughly 497 million current outstanding shares, that we could see about 1.7 billion shares hit the market. Now that is not really likely, but what it does mean is that there should be less than average selling pressure on the stock considering the usually IPO accounts for 10% of shares released, while Palantir released over 20% based on the numbers provided above.\nWhere are we now? Well as per the study quoted earlier, we are right on track. The stock is selling off in an orderly fashion right before the lock-up period ends. Now we have to wait and see what the rebound looks like. Or does everyone sell high and try and buy even lower? It is a bit of a wait-and-see. Let's take a look at what the technicals show us.\nWhat Does The Price Say?\nTaking a quick peek at the technicals, we can see a couple of really strong support levels. Firstly, we broke through a pretty big one at $30 today and did so in a big way, which is a bit concerning in the short term, but there is potential for a quick bounce to re-test that $30 mark quickly. If these markets have taught us anything, it's that they can move quickly! In a normal case, this is probably where my stop would be. But have not had a position until today, the game changes a bit as I take on more risk.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b568bf73db2c1b38aaa1546a10427dc\" tg-width=\"3837\" tg-height=\"1813\">\n(Source: TC2000.com)\nWhen a stock as popular as Palantir tanks like we saw today, one of two things happens. Either the dip gets bought up and this stock will fly back up to $40, or we see Palantir drop down to ~$23. Because the stock is so new, we really do not have a good gauge for support. Looking below we can see roughly where I am pulling $23 out of. This is a pretty substantial move from here yet. Would be about 20% to the downside. If $23 breaks, it could go even further south.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e3505c465c407b7387cbedf16a1b233\" tg-width=\"3840\" tg-height=\"1808\">\n(Source: TC2000.com)\nWhen trying to catch the bounce, you have to be prepared to average down. It is a totally different approach. Scale in, and scale-out.... all while knowing when to cut it loose. If you want to play this safe, watch for the bounce and try and get in then. I do think there will be a decent bounce that takes the stock back to $36-$40, but the question is when. This is not a long-term hold for me personally.\nWrap-Up\nAs you can see, there is a lot to like about the direction in which the company is headed. The valuation can always be debated, but at the end of the day, the value is whatever someone is willing to pay for it. Palantir is a revenue machine and it is not going to slow down. They are playing with the \"big fish\" and the revenue will follow as long as they can continue to deliver on their goals. I am currently long, but watching closely as the lock-up period ends this week. If you are going long, make sure to scale in over the next couple of days and place your bets for which way this goes next week. Stay safe out there!","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Buy The Dip</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Buy The Dip\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-19 14:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4406809-palantir-buy-the-dip>Seeking Alpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nPalantir posted solid revenue, but missed on earnings. The future forecast was a bit disappointing.\nPalantir is expecting 30% year-over-year revenue growth after posting 47% growth for 2020.\n...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4406809-palantir-buy-the-dip\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4406809-palantir-buy-the-dip","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100960455","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir posted solid revenue, but missed on earnings. The future forecast was a bit disappointing.\nPalantir is expecting 30% year-over-year revenue growth after posting 47% growth for 2020.\nPalantir continues to grow its client base across multiple industries.\nPalantir's lock-up period ends on February 19th. Place your bets!\n\nOne of the hotter stocks as of late is recent Direct Listing, Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR). Some investors were expecting the company was expected to release blowout earnings today and fell short of that. The company did post incredible revenue growth, and the path forward looks bright as well. However, investors were disappointed with just how bright that picture is according to the company. The stock is falling leading up to the end of the lock-up period as expected. Next week will tell a better story as to where this stock is headed. If you are feeling risky, jump aboard.\nWho Are They?\nIf you are like me, you likely had no idea who this company was or what they did. Well, Palantir Technologies Inc. has been around since 2003 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado. In short,they build and deploy software platforms for the intelligence community in the USA to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations.\nPalantir Gothamis a software program that identifies patterns hidden deep within datasets. This helps execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform. This was used in the efforts to help those in need in hurricane Florence in 2018. Palantir Gothamcombined publicly available flood data with weather information and social vulnerability census data to find the communities in greatest needand resources were deployed appropriately. More recently, they are providing the U.S. government with coronavirus tracking software.\nThe company also provides Palantir Foundry,a platform that transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data; and allows individual users to integrate and analyze the data they need in one place.\nPretty cool hey?\nWhat Is Driving The Company?\nRevenue. This is a growth play, plain and simple. Looking below we can see what is forecasted down the pipe. The missing block is 2020, which we found out todaywas $1.1 billion. That is a ~47% increase year-over-year. Going forward, analysts are projecting the pace stays heavy at 35%+ per year revenue growth. Often we consider 20% being strong, so that makes this look really good. For the fourth quarter, the company posted $322.1 million in revenue for the quarter, which was a beat by 20%.\n\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nThe shock came from theloss per share which totaled $0.08 versus the positive $0.02 consensus. The stock fell over 12% today on the earnings news. Upon diving deeper, it would appear most investors were disappointed with the forward forecasts. I personally think they are sandbagging a bit to blow away consensus down the line, but time will tell how true that is. Based on everything the company had put out in terms of news, which is nicely outlined inJohn Rhodes article : Palantir: Potential Q4 Revenue Blowoutmost people expected the revenue beat, but the action in the stock over the last week showed otherwise.\nData has become more relevant to the average person than ever before. The local news has all kinds of data on it when it comes to COVID-19.In 2020, Palantir helped 100 commercial organizations and 10 national governments respond to COVID-19. This has been a large opportunity for Palantir, and they have not squandered it. This response has helped earn thema 2-year contract for U.K. health services work worth $31.5 million. In the fourth quarter alone, the company signed21 deals worth more than $5 million. 12 of which were worth $10 million or more. Revenue growth will continue to be the future of Palantir.\nSome of the best business going is government business. For the year, Palantir saw56% of their revenue or $610 million come from government contracts. While the commercial side saw higher year-over-year growth at 107%, a 77% increase in government-based revenue isn't anything to laugh at. One of the more impressive pieces was that we saw happen with the average customer.Revenue increased by 41% year-over-year. Up to $7.9 million per customer from $5.6 million. This is an important metric to keep an eye on as customers hand more and more business over to Palantir as they continue to develop and improve their systems. The other factor playing into this is Palantir pulling larger customers into the fold. The new customers acquired in 2020, generated $42 million in revenue.\n\n(Company Presentation)\nSo all of this and we still sit down 12% today? As I mentioned above, it was the forward forecasts that people were a bit shocked at. Palantir said toexpect revenue growth in excess of 30% for 2021. This would be fantastic news for most companies, but after you just posted a 47% growth year, it is a bit saddening. But as I said, I think they are sandbagging a bit. Analysts are still projecting about a 35% increase for 2021. Something tells me they will outdo that as the year goes on. The company did state that they are targeting $4 billion in revenue by 2025, which carrying 30% per year growth from here will get you. I fully expect that number to creep closer to $5 billion based on current projections. Palantir is going after the \"big fish\" across multiple industries.8 of their customers fall into the Fortune 100, and 12 of the Global 100. As their products continue to develop and improve, their bottom line is only going to get better. I think there is a lot of room to run here in the long term.\nWhat Are The Risks?\nOne of the up-and-coming risks is the lock-up period ending, which I will touch on below. Besides that, I will look at the government contracts. Yes, they are some of the most important, but that's not to say they come without risk. In the past, Palantir has said they need to focus more so on commercial customers to help the bottom line and to turn a profit (part of the reason for the earnings sell-off). As we can see, they have landed some big-time commercial clients, but that government aspect still exists.\nSomething to keep in mind as well is that dealing with the government can lead to crossing some lines that some are not okay with. As reported by the Washington Post,in 2018, more than 200 employees signed a letter to CEO Alex Karp, citing concerns over a partnership with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Multiple other big tech companies have been forced to cut ties with government agencies in the past over potential human rights violations.\nThat said, I do really think the company will continue to do very well in the commercial sector and well reduce the overall government exposure overtime.\nWhat's The \"Lock-Up Period\"?\nThe one concern many have had with Palantir is the lock-up period, which ends on February 19th (Friday). Typically, this is where we will see the lows kick in on IPO's that go this route, but it is not always the case.\n\n Looking at 15 stocks that sawtheir lock-up periods expire in the first two weeks of October, the majority of shares started to fall in the days before the expiration date, prior to bouncing back three to five days afterwards. However, some saw virtually no selling pressure on the day and the share price immediately climbed once the lock-up had ended.\n\nWhat is it? Well in short, instead of an IPO where new shares of the company are created and are underwritten by an intermediary, we have a Direct Listing. This is wherethe business sells shares directly to the public without the help of any intermediaries. It does not involve any underwriters or other intermediaries, there are no new shares issued. This means the largest shareholders in the business can only freely sell their shares after the IPO lock-up expiration. Spotify (SPOT) and Slack (WORK) are two examples of companies that went the Direct Listing route. That said, neither of these companies had lock-up periods for employees.\nSo what does this mean? Well, given thatMarketWatch said:\n\n For Palantir, though, years of venture-capital investments have created more than enough shares to launch public trading: roughly 1.64 billion, though that grows to 2.17 billion in a fully diluted formula that includes vesting options.\n\nIt means that with roughly 497 million current outstanding shares, that we could see about 1.7 billion shares hit the market. Now that is not really likely, but what it does mean is that there should be less than average selling pressure on the stock considering the usually IPO accounts for 10% of shares released, while Palantir released over 20% based on the numbers provided above.\nWhere are we now? Well as per the study quoted earlier, we are right on track. The stock is selling off in an orderly fashion right before the lock-up period ends. Now we have to wait and see what the rebound looks like. Or does everyone sell high and try and buy even lower? It is a bit of a wait-and-see. Let's take a look at what the technicals show us.\nWhat Does The Price Say?\nTaking a quick peek at the technicals, we can see a couple of really strong support levels. Firstly, we broke through a pretty big one at $30 today and did so in a big way, which is a bit concerning in the short term, but there is potential for a quick bounce to re-test that $30 mark quickly. If these markets have taught us anything, it's that they can move quickly! In a normal case, this is probably where my stop would be. But have not had a position until today, the game changes a bit as I take on more risk.\n\n(Source: TC2000.com)\nWhen a stock as popular as Palantir tanks like we saw today, one of two things happens. Either the dip gets bought up and this stock will fly back up to $40, or we see Palantir drop down to ~$23. Because the stock is so new, we really do not have a good gauge for support. Looking below we can see roughly where I am pulling $23 out of. This is a pretty substantial move from here yet. Would be about 20% to the downside. If $23 breaks, it could go even further south.\n\n(Source: TC2000.com)\nWhen trying to catch the bounce, you have to be prepared to average down. It is a totally different approach. Scale in, and scale-out.... all while knowing when to cut it loose. If you want to play this safe, watch for the bounce and try and get in then. I do think there will be a decent bounce that takes the stock back to $36-$40, but the question is when. This is not a long-term hold for me personally.\nWrap-Up\nAs you can see, there is a lot to like about the direction in which the company is headed. The valuation can always be debated, but at the end of the day, the value is whatever someone is willing to pay for it. Palantir is a revenue machine and it is not going to slow down. They are playing with the \"big fish\" and the revenue will follow as long as they can continue to deliver on their goals. I am currently long, but watching closely as the lock-up period ends this week. If you are going long, make sure to scale in over the next couple of days and place your bets for which way this goes next week. Stay safe out there!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}