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2021-02-23

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Tesla And India: An Interesting Marriage

Elevated government support, high presence of other auto players, and subsidies and incentives are prime factors driving Tesla to Karnataka.India's auto market is quite different from traditional markets, since it's dominated by two-wheelers, accounting for ~81% of total auto sales.Two-wheelers, limited infrastructure and income inequality could make the Karnataka plant less suitable for an immediate domestic market approach.A major benefit could be exporting ability and cost reductions in/to Ch

Tesla And India: An Interesting Marriage

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Bengaluru has risen as a prominent manufacturing and R&amp;D center for a multitude of auto firms such as Mercedes Benz (OTCPK:DDAIF), GM (GM), Volvo (OTCPK:GELYF) and more, and Tesla's recent inclusion is widely viewed as being a boost to India's EV space. The new Gigafactory is an interesting new synergy to Tesla's story, as infrastructure and a widely different auto market provide some obstacles, yet the factory could provide a much-needed boost in regards to Chinese/Asian expansion.\nSo Why India?\nIndiahad grown to the fourth largest auto market by 2019, overstepping Germany, and is on track to climb past Japan and take the third spot this year. Karnataka, in particular, was India's first state to \"introduce adedicated EVpolicy to encourage original equipment manufacturers, component producers and energy suppliers to set up shop.\"\nAcross India, multiple large investments were made within EV during 2020. MG Motors had launched an EV SUV and invested Rs. 1,000 crore (US$136 million) to further manufacturing development, Kinetic Green invested Rs. 1,750 crore (US$236 million) for EV golf cart manufacturing and battery swapping technology, and Toyota Kirloskar Motors invested Rs. 2,000 crore (US$273 million) for EV components.\nBengaluru is one of India's largest R&amp;D hubs, and home to R&amp;D units of large legacy manufacturers as well as nearly four dozen EV startups; legacy manufacturers foraying into EV and Tesla are seeking \"to capitalise on the burgeoning engineering and IT talent pool that the city comprises.\" Tesla's manufacturing plant is no surprise given the depth of knowledge and extensive presence of auto manufacturers.\nKarnataka is pushing forward with itsEV agenda, sanctioning just over $3 billion in funding for EV manufacturing development in addition to a wide range subsidies. Some of the goals within EV include 100% e-mobility by 2030 in rickshaws, cabs, corporate fleets, school buses/vans, while increasing adoption in public transportation systems with 1,000 buses.\nFor a company of Tesla's size, such subsidies offered would be exemption from stamp duty, concessional registration charges, full reimbursement of land conversion fee, one-time capital subsidy of 50% of ETP cost (max Rs. 200 lakh), and interest free loans - these apply for EV/component manufacturing, battery cell manufacturing (plus five year exemption of electricity duty), or EV charging station manufacturing (plus five year exemption of electricity duty and 25% capital subsidies for firstxamount of stations in the state).\nManufacturing capacity in Karnataka likely needs to grow double-digit YoY in order for it to start on a solid track to reach its 2030 goals, and inclusion of Tesla is a big step for the state. Elevated government support, high presence of other auto players, and subsidies and incentives are prime factors driving Tesla to Karnataka, aside from the benefits to operations.\nBenefits To Tesla\nIndia offers multiple benefits to Tesla - capacity growth, expansion of energy storage, or even ability to further competitive presence in China.\nOne of Tesla's largest headwinds going forward is a massive valuation, currently at $755 billion, or approximately 30% of the combined valuations across traditional ICE and EV manufacturers. As such, Tesla needs to garner much more market share by delivering millions of cars and fend off competition over the next few years in order to try to cement such a valuation (aside from energy and storage) - to do that, production capacity is a top priority.\nCapacity is key since Tesla as it aims to scale deliveries at an average annual growth rate of 50% on amulti-year horizon; this implies about 1.7 million in deliveries by 2023 and nearly 4 million by 2025, contingent on demand. Current annual capacity sits at ~1,050,000 vehicles at the moment with production pending at GF Berlin and Austin for the Model Y later this year.\nIndia's Gigafactory would likely mimic similar run rates of production to other factories, thus adding ~500,000 units at full-scale. Assuming full scale of Berlin, Austin and Bengaluru by 2023 - should that fall between 750,000 to 1.5 million, capacity would easily expand past targeted deliveries to 1.8 million to 2.6 million by 2023. Tesla has exhibited a rapid launch timeline within Shanghai's Gigafactory, with Model 3 capacity at over 5,000 per week and initiated production of Model Y in under a year, so similar rapid scale of production in the three factories is likely. Given the current state of India's market, it would likely exhibit similar patterns to China's lifetime (seen below), with minimal domestic presence for multiple years as the industry continues to bloom.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd4a0adeda25013e5b301c9cb4060faa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\">Source:Tesla\nTesla has been increasing global market share, with 2021 likely to see China eclipse the 1% figure based on expected deliveries and momentum with production scale and sales price reductions. That is likely the key market to dominate, as China is expected to be one of the largest and fastest growing EV markets as it rises to maturity, leaving Tesla and other domestic manufacturers a massive runway for growth. If Tesla can grow to derive 2.5% of global market share in China by 2025, it could be easily seeing $25+ billion in revenues from the country. Assuming China can maintain contribution of ~20% of sales, increased global market share from China could see revenues rise to $125 billion by 2025.\nThus a major benefit from a vehicle-focused manufacturing plant in India would be exporting ability. Aside from fierce competition in IT/software/engineering positions in the tech realm of auto/EV manufacturing and higher salaries there,low labor costsin contractual workers (US$148 per month compared to US$234 per month in China) is transforming India into a prime hub for exporting cars, with export unit volume rising to 4.77 million, up 37% from 2017 to 2020). India offers significantcost advantages, with \"auto firms sav[ing] 10-25% vis-a-vis Europe and Latin America.\nTesla's price reductions in China-made models helped sales hit over 15,000 forJanuary, as competition heightens in the nation. As Tesla still wants to have a $25,000 model, or just more price reductions, utilization of low labor costs in India could allow it to build, export and sell models in China or even Europe for lower prices, maybe even to the low 200,000-yuan range in the former. Such ability to lever favorable labor costs and decrease prices could see incremental market share gains in China as lower cost mini/micro EV have gained significant traction, so price competition could be vital for driving demand in the premium segment in the future.\nIf Tesla decides not to utilize the Karnataka plant for vehicles, it could be very well suited for energy storage/solar like Giga Nevada and New York. Tesla noted in the Q4 release that energy storage remains supply-constrained, with Megapack and Powerwall demand strong, and utilization of the India plant could ease supply constraints as well as further boost capacity, aiding expansion in energy storage.\nIndia Still Has Obstacles\nEven with its status in the top five largest auto markets, India's auto market is quite different from traditional markets, in that it's dominated by two-wheelers. This could pressure a domestic market approach from Tesla in the early stages of EV adoption, but could cement the factory as an exporting base.\nThe market is expected to be driven by a growing youth population and a rise in middle class income, and more policy support in individual states like Karnataka as well as within the national government (reducing GST to 5% from 12%) can help drive EV adoption. While it's an \"estimated to be a Rs. 50,000 crore (US$ 7.09 billion)opportunityby 2025\" in EV, the majority of the growth will likely stem from two and three-wheelers.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98030eb0d9d32363a106ee89b794539e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"253\">Source:IBEF\nTwo-wheelers accounted for 80.8% of all auto sales in the country for 2020, with passenger vehicles the second-largest segment at 12.9%, driven by small and mid-sized cars. Even though two-wheelers will be a significant driver of electrification, EV sales excluding e-rickshaws grew 20% during the year to 156,000 units; on the other side, luxury cars only hovered at about ~32,000 units. Moving through 2023, it's unlikely that passenger cars will eclipse 17% of the total market, with concentration remaining heavy in two-wheelers.\nIn terms of market players, a few main players control a majority of the market. In passenger vehicles, Maruti Suzuki had 51% share across the segment during 2020, while other main players include Kia, Hyundai and Mahindra with each having double-digit share in the SUV market. Tata Motors (TTM) has ~45% share in the commercial vehicle market, while Hero Motors leads in two-wheelers. Displacement of established brands with high market share, who are increasing investments in EV, could also prove difficult.\nHowever, infrastructure at the moment does not yet favor or facilitate EV adoption; a lack of public and private charging stations due to a minuscule penetration (sub 1%) of EV is a major headwind, as widespread adoption and acceptance of EV will need significant more development in charging stations (hence the subsidies in Karnataka). Limited infrastructure in terms of charging abilities and less development of the overall industry has led to EVs being quite costly, thus dampening adoption as well.\nIncome inequality could also prevent acceptance of EV over the course of the next decade unless prices fall to reasonable levels, given that India'sincome inequalityhas failed to improve. The bottom 40% in the country witnessed income growth of 58% through 2018, 64 percentage points below average wealth growth of 122%, thus widening the wealth gap. It's estimated that 60% of India's population controls just 4.7% of thenational wealth, and purchasing power remains too low for a significant proportion of the population to buy cars, let alone EVs.\nOutlook\nWhile Tesla has yet to officially state a timeline or intentions of the Karnataka plant, it's likely to provide significant benefits whether it focuses on vehicle manufacturing or in energy storage. India is a budding EV market, though one primarily concentrated in two-wheelers/rickshaws as the go-to mode for transportation; thus, outright domestic impact for Tesla could be minimal if/when the EV market starts to mature and affordability, demand and infrastructure for EV rises. However, Tesla is likely to benefit from low labor costs, opening up favorable export pathways to China, and could help drive more cost reductions in that fiercely competitive environment. Capacity expansion in either vehicles or energy storage is important for future revenue growth, and should the plant focus on vehicles and scale to a half-million output, 50% delivery growth rates through 2025 to 4 million could be easily feasible, should demand be there.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla And India: An Interesting Marriage</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla And India: An Interesting Marriage\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-22 17:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4407755-tesla-india-plant-looks-like-solid-move>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nElevated government support, high presence of other auto players, and subsidies and incentives are prime factors driving Tesla to Karnataka.\nIndia's auto market is quite different from ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4407755-tesla-india-plant-looks-like-solid-move\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4407755-tesla-india-plant-looks-like-solid-move","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1153806804","content_text":"Summary\n\nElevated government support, high presence of other auto players, and subsidies and incentives are prime factors driving Tesla to Karnataka.\nIndia's auto market is quite different from traditional markets, since it's dominated by two-wheelers, accounting for ~81% of total auto sales.\nTwo-wheelers, limited infrastructure and income inequality could make the Karnataka plant less suitable for an immediate domestic market approach.\nA major benefit could be exporting ability and cost reductions in/to China, stemming from favorable labor cost leverage.\n\nTesla (TSLA) looks to be moving forward with a slatedsixth Gigafactory, in Karnataka in southern India following the registration of its India Motors and Energy Limited subsidiary about a month prior. Bengaluru has risen as a prominent manufacturing and R&D center for a multitude of auto firms such as Mercedes Benz (OTCPK:DDAIF), GM (GM), Volvo (OTCPK:GELYF) and more, and Tesla's recent inclusion is widely viewed as being a boost to India's EV space. The new Gigafactory is an interesting new synergy to Tesla's story, as infrastructure and a widely different auto market provide some obstacles, yet the factory could provide a much-needed boost in regards to Chinese/Asian expansion.\nSo Why India?\nIndiahad grown to the fourth largest auto market by 2019, overstepping Germany, and is on track to climb past Japan and take the third spot this year. Karnataka, in particular, was India's first state to \"introduce adedicated EVpolicy to encourage original equipment manufacturers, component producers and energy suppliers to set up shop.\"\nAcross India, multiple large investments were made within EV during 2020. MG Motors had launched an EV SUV and invested Rs. 1,000 crore (US$136 million) to further manufacturing development, Kinetic Green invested Rs. 1,750 crore (US$236 million) for EV golf cart manufacturing and battery swapping technology, and Toyota Kirloskar Motors invested Rs. 2,000 crore (US$273 million) for EV components.\nBengaluru is one of India's largest R&D hubs, and home to R&D units of large legacy manufacturers as well as nearly four dozen EV startups; legacy manufacturers foraying into EV and Tesla are seeking \"to capitalise on the burgeoning engineering and IT talent pool that the city comprises.\" Tesla's manufacturing plant is no surprise given the depth of knowledge and extensive presence of auto manufacturers.\nKarnataka is pushing forward with itsEV agenda, sanctioning just over $3 billion in funding for EV manufacturing development in addition to a wide range subsidies. Some of the goals within EV include 100% e-mobility by 2030 in rickshaws, cabs, corporate fleets, school buses/vans, while increasing adoption in public transportation systems with 1,000 buses.\nFor a company of Tesla's size, such subsidies offered would be exemption from stamp duty, concessional registration charges, full reimbursement of land conversion fee, one-time capital subsidy of 50% of ETP cost (max Rs. 200 lakh), and interest free loans - these apply for EV/component manufacturing, battery cell manufacturing (plus five year exemption of electricity duty), or EV charging station manufacturing (plus five year exemption of electricity duty and 25% capital subsidies for firstxamount of stations in the state).\nManufacturing capacity in Karnataka likely needs to grow double-digit YoY in order for it to start on a solid track to reach its 2030 goals, and inclusion of Tesla is a big step for the state. Elevated government support, high presence of other auto players, and subsidies and incentives are prime factors driving Tesla to Karnataka, aside from the benefits to operations.\nBenefits To Tesla\nIndia offers multiple benefits to Tesla - capacity growth, expansion of energy storage, or even ability to further competitive presence in China.\nOne of Tesla's largest headwinds going forward is a massive valuation, currently at $755 billion, or approximately 30% of the combined valuations across traditional ICE and EV manufacturers. As such, Tesla needs to garner much more market share by delivering millions of cars and fend off competition over the next few years in order to try to cement such a valuation (aside from energy and storage) - to do that, production capacity is a top priority.\nCapacity is key since Tesla as it aims to scale deliveries at an average annual growth rate of 50% on amulti-year horizon; this implies about 1.7 million in deliveries by 2023 and nearly 4 million by 2025, contingent on demand. Current annual capacity sits at ~1,050,000 vehicles at the moment with production pending at GF Berlin and Austin for the Model Y later this year.\nIndia's Gigafactory would likely mimic similar run rates of production to other factories, thus adding ~500,000 units at full-scale. Assuming full scale of Berlin, Austin and Bengaluru by 2023 - should that fall between 750,000 to 1.5 million, capacity would easily expand past targeted deliveries to 1.8 million to 2.6 million by 2023. Tesla has exhibited a rapid launch timeline within Shanghai's Gigafactory, with Model 3 capacity at over 5,000 per week and initiated production of Model Y in under a year, so similar rapid scale of production in the three factories is likely. Given the current state of India's market, it would likely exhibit similar patterns to China's lifetime (seen below), with minimal domestic presence for multiple years as the industry continues to bloom.\nSource:Tesla\nTesla has been increasing global market share, with 2021 likely to see China eclipse the 1% figure based on expected deliveries and momentum with production scale and sales price reductions. That is likely the key market to dominate, as China is expected to be one of the largest and fastest growing EV markets as it rises to maturity, leaving Tesla and other domestic manufacturers a massive runway for growth. If Tesla can grow to derive 2.5% of global market share in China by 2025, it could be easily seeing $25+ billion in revenues from the country. Assuming China can maintain contribution of ~20% of sales, increased global market share from China could see revenues rise to $125 billion by 2025.\nThus a major benefit from a vehicle-focused manufacturing plant in India would be exporting ability. Aside from fierce competition in IT/software/engineering positions in the tech realm of auto/EV manufacturing and higher salaries there,low labor costsin contractual workers (US$148 per month compared to US$234 per month in China) is transforming India into a prime hub for exporting cars, with export unit volume rising to 4.77 million, up 37% from 2017 to 2020). India offers significantcost advantages, with \"auto firms sav[ing] 10-25% vis-a-vis Europe and Latin America.\nTesla's price reductions in China-made models helped sales hit over 15,000 forJanuary, as competition heightens in the nation. As Tesla still wants to have a $25,000 model, or just more price reductions, utilization of low labor costs in India could allow it to build, export and sell models in China or even Europe for lower prices, maybe even to the low 200,000-yuan range in the former. Such ability to lever favorable labor costs and decrease prices could see incremental market share gains in China as lower cost mini/micro EV have gained significant traction, so price competition could be vital for driving demand in the premium segment in the future.\nIf Tesla decides not to utilize the Karnataka plant for vehicles, it could be very well suited for energy storage/solar like Giga Nevada and New York. Tesla noted in the Q4 release that energy storage remains supply-constrained, with Megapack and Powerwall demand strong, and utilization of the India plant could ease supply constraints as well as further boost capacity, aiding expansion in energy storage.\nIndia Still Has Obstacles\nEven with its status in the top five largest auto markets, India's auto market is quite different from traditional markets, in that it's dominated by two-wheelers. This could pressure a domestic market approach from Tesla in the early stages of EV adoption, but could cement the factory as an exporting base.\nThe market is expected to be driven by a growing youth population and a rise in middle class income, and more policy support in individual states like Karnataka as well as within the national government (reducing GST to 5% from 12%) can help drive EV adoption. While it's an \"estimated to be a Rs. 50,000 crore (US$ 7.09 billion)opportunityby 2025\" in EV, the majority of the growth will likely stem from two and three-wheelers.\nSource:IBEF\nTwo-wheelers accounted for 80.8% of all auto sales in the country for 2020, with passenger vehicles the second-largest segment at 12.9%, driven by small and mid-sized cars. Even though two-wheelers will be a significant driver of electrification, EV sales excluding e-rickshaws grew 20% during the year to 156,000 units; on the other side, luxury cars only hovered at about ~32,000 units. Moving through 2023, it's unlikely that passenger cars will eclipse 17% of the total market, with concentration remaining heavy in two-wheelers.\nIn terms of market players, a few main players control a majority of the market. In passenger vehicles, Maruti Suzuki had 51% share across the segment during 2020, while other main players include Kia, Hyundai and Mahindra with each having double-digit share in the SUV market. Tata Motors (TTM) has ~45% share in the commercial vehicle market, while Hero Motors leads in two-wheelers. Displacement of established brands with high market share, who are increasing investments in EV, could also prove difficult.\nHowever, infrastructure at the moment does not yet favor or facilitate EV adoption; a lack of public and private charging stations due to a minuscule penetration (sub 1%) of EV is a major headwind, as widespread adoption and acceptance of EV will need significant more development in charging stations (hence the subsidies in Karnataka). Limited infrastructure in terms of charging abilities and less development of the overall industry has led to EVs being quite costly, thus dampening adoption as well.\nIncome inequality could also prevent acceptance of EV over the course of the next decade unless prices fall to reasonable levels, given that India'sincome inequalityhas failed to improve. The bottom 40% in the country witnessed income growth of 58% through 2018, 64 percentage points below average wealth growth of 122%, thus widening the wealth gap. It's estimated that 60% of India's population controls just 4.7% of thenational wealth, and purchasing power remains too low for a significant proportion of the population to buy cars, let alone EVs.\nOutlook\nWhile Tesla has yet to officially state a timeline or intentions of the Karnataka plant, it's likely to provide significant benefits whether it focuses on vehicle manufacturing or in energy storage. India is a budding EV market, though one primarily concentrated in two-wheelers/rickshaws as the go-to mode for transportation; thus, outright domestic impact for Tesla could be minimal if/when the EV market starts to mature and affordability, demand and infrastructure for EV rises. However, Tesla is likely to benefit from low labor costs, opening up favorable export pathways to China, and could help drive more cost reductions in that fiercely competitive environment. Capacity expansion in either vehicles or energy storage is important for future revenue growth, and should the plant focus on vehicles and scale to a half-million output, 50% delivery growth rates through 2025 to 4 million could be easily feasible, should demand be there.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["TSLA"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":19,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}