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Yojessica
2021-04-05

[强] [强] [强] //@YURICE:Good company (as always)

What Good Can I Say About Apple

Summary The most difficult thing in analysis is to remain objective. I've already written a series

What Good Can I Say About Apple

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":349466298,"tweetId":"349466298","gmtCreate":1617632737014,"gmtModify":1634297422516,"author":{"id":3562659809333234,"authorId":3562659809333234,"authorIdStr":"3562659809333234","name":"Yojessica","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9deab6fad269044204b8dd0a961885c1","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":14,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3572742903232212\">@YURICE</a>:Good company (as always)</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3572742903232212\">@YURICE</a>:Good company (as always)</body></html>","text":"[强] [强] [强] //@YURICE:Good company (as always)","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349466298","repostId":1177909392,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177909392","pubTimestamp":1617632142,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177909392?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-05 22:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Good Can I Say About Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177909392","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe most difficult thing in analysis is to remain objective.\nI've already written a series ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>The most difficult thing in analysis is to remain objective.</li>\n <li>I've already written a series of negative articles about Apple. And so I decided to write a separate one in which I will highlight only the positive aspects.</li>\n <li>But even this approach does not allow giving a buy recommendation.</li>\n</ul>\nIn my opinion, the most difficult thing in analysis is to remain objective. And even if you do not own shares of the company you are analyzing, it is still difficult to be unbiased. This is because if you came to the conclusion that a company, for example, is overvalued, and publicly announced this, then it is already difficult for you to objectively judge this company. Because we all always want to be right.\nI note something similar in my attitude to Apple (AAPL). I have written a series of negative&nbsp;articles&nbsp;about this company in the past. And although I analyzed this company using different tools, I noticed that it became difficult for me to have a positive attitude towards Apple. And so I decided to write a separate article in which I will highlight only the positive aspects of analyzing the fundamental state of Apple's capitalization. So, let's begin.\n#1 Consistently Better Than Expectations\nFirst, I must admit that Apple is a company that consistently surprises with the results. So, for three years, the actual quarterly revenue and profit of the company turned out to be higher than analysts'&nbsp;expectations:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41567c51a0232bbcec053d55a52a3dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e31c798e170fcd4ae3627315f97da04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\">Source: Seeking Alpha\nAccordingly, after each quarterly reporting, analysts raise their expectations for Apple. For example, here's what it looks like in the current fiscal year:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd303ab9bbbd42840580f6762b470175\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db531d11ddc1203e39acdef6f337f644\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nTherefore, when we say that, according to analysts' average expectations, Apple's revenue will grow by 21% in the next fiscal year, we should assume that the actual result is highly likely to be higher than this figure.This is an important correction that should be taken into account in the analysis.\n#2 Price vs. Revenue\nRevenue is the main criterion for the size of the company. Therefore, over time, as a rule, a direct relationship is formed between the company's capitalization and the amount of revenue. This is how this relationship looks in the case of Apple:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7ac55753c196ffbc48505a12aba9368\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nAs you can see, from this point of view, the company is definitely overvalued. But, if we consider a similar dependence only over the past five years, then the situation will change significantly:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0b4ad2fcf6f2d19b031f9b09ed4e25a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nIn this case, the company's capitalization looks balanced and even retains the upside potential based on analysts' average expectations of Apple's revenue growth in the coming quarters. By the way, remember what I said about expectations in the previous block?\n#3 Price vs. Growth\nNow let's talk about the rate of growth of Apple's profits.\nIf we compare the long-term growth rate of the company's EPS and the value of the P/E multiple, then we get a confirmation of thesimply insane overvaluation:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a3d4e1402b1ffdd63a150ff9eeb30d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nBut it should be admitted that despite the logic of the presence of a relationship between the P/E multiple and the rate of EPS growth, the given model is not enough qualitative in a statistical context (R^2 = 0.23)\nBut there is another relationship whose quality is difficult to dispute. This is the relationship between ROE and the P/BV multiple:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdf44746a287b3743a391bf98c969fcb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nIn this case, we get a balanced state of the company's price.\nBut you have to be careful here, since this relationship is strongly affected by the buyback:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dab33c2437173ae50c70baf69fc30498\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\">Data by YCharts\n#4 Comparative Valuation\nYou can always find a dozen of multiples pointing to the undervaluation of the company, and the same number of multiples pointing to its overvaluation. Therefore, personally, I tend to trust only those multiples, which in the past allowed for a more or less stable determination of the company's balanced price. And in Apple's case, one such multiple is EV/OpFCF:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cc296a218bcd0bd6f579276a364fa7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fa0fad82c86992bfe29a99091f737f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nIn this case, we can also conclude that Apple is balanced with the market.\nHowever, I must admit that I still trust forward multiples more. Simply because, at its core, the market reflects not what is now, but what is expected in the future. But in the case of Apple, I have not yet found suitable forward multiples for comparative valuation.\nBottom Line\nIn my opinion, I kept my promise and highlighted the main factors that positively characterize Apple's capitalization. But note that they all indicate a balanced state of the company's capitalization, and not an undervalued one. Therefore, even this approach does not allow giving a buy recommendation.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Good Can I Say About Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Good Can I Say About Apple\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-05 22:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417579-what-good-can-i-say-apple>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nThe most difficult thing in analysis is to remain objective.\nI've already written a series of negative articles about Apple. And so I decided to write a separate one in which I will highlight...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417579-what-good-can-i-say-apple\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417579-what-good-can-i-say-apple","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1177909392","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe most difficult thing in analysis is to remain objective.\nI've already written a series of negative articles about Apple. And so I decided to write a separate one in which I will highlight only the positive aspects.\nBut even this approach does not allow giving a buy recommendation.\n\nIn my opinion, the most difficult thing in analysis is to remain objective. And even if you do not own shares of the company you are analyzing, it is still difficult to be unbiased. This is because if you came to the conclusion that a company, for example, is overvalued, and publicly announced this, then it is already difficult for you to objectively judge this company. Because we all always want to be right.\nI note something similar in my attitude to Apple (AAPL). I have written a series of negative articles about this company in the past. And although I analyzed this company using different tools, I noticed that it became difficult for me to have a positive attitude towards Apple. And so I decided to write a separate article in which I will highlight only the positive aspects of analyzing the fundamental state of Apple's capitalization. So, let's begin.\n#1 Consistently Better Than Expectations\nFirst, I must admit that Apple is a company that consistently surprises with the results. So, for three years, the actual quarterly revenue and profit of the company turned out to be higher than analysts' expectations:\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nAccordingly, after each quarterly reporting, analysts raise their expectations for Apple. For example, here's what it looks like in the current fiscal year:\n\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nTherefore, when we say that, according to analysts' average expectations, Apple's revenue will grow by 21% in the next fiscal year, we should assume that the actual result is highly likely to be higher than this figure.This is an important correction that should be taken into account in the analysis.\n#2 Price vs. Revenue\nRevenue is the main criterion for the size of the company. Therefore, over time, as a rule, a direct relationship is formed between the company's capitalization and the amount of revenue. This is how this relationship looks in the case of Apple:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nAs you can see, from this point of view, the company is definitely overvalued. But, if we consider a similar dependence only over the past five years, then the situation will change significantly:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nIn this case, the company's capitalization looks balanced and even retains the upside potential based on analysts' average expectations of Apple's revenue growth in the coming quarters. By the way, remember what I said about expectations in the previous block?\n#3 Price vs. Growth\nNow let's talk about the rate of growth of Apple's profits.\nIf we compare the long-term growth rate of the company's EPS and the value of the P/E multiple, then we get a confirmation of thesimply insane overvaluation:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nBut it should be admitted that despite the logic of the presence of a relationship between the P/E multiple and the rate of EPS growth, the given model is not enough qualitative in a statistical context (R^2 = 0.23)\nBut there is another relationship whose quality is difficult to dispute. This is the relationship between ROE and the P/BV multiple:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nIn this case, we get a balanced state of the company's price.\nBut you have to be careful here, since this relationship is strongly affected by the buyback:\nData by YCharts\n#4 Comparative Valuation\nYou can always find a dozen of multiples pointing to the undervaluation of the company, and the same number of multiples pointing to its overvaluation. Therefore, personally, I tend to trust only those multiples, which in the past allowed for a more or less stable determination of the company's balanced price. And in Apple's case, one such multiple is EV/OpFCF:\n\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nIn this case, we can also conclude that Apple is balanced with the market.\nHowever, I must admit that I still trust forward multiples more. Simply because, at its core, the market reflects not what is now, but what is expected in the future. But in the case of Apple, I have not yet found suitable forward multiples for comparative valuation.\nBottom Line\nIn my opinion, I kept my promise and highlighted the main factors that positively characterize Apple's capitalization. But note that they all indicate a balanced state of the company's capitalization, and not an undervalued one. Therefore, even this approach does not allow giving a buy recommendation.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":274,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":43,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

What Good Can I Say About Apple

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