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2021-03-11

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Amazon: Stock Looks Better On The Dip

Summary Amazon is 15% off the September all-time high. The deeper into the hole it digs, the more c

Amazon: Stock Looks Better On The Dip

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The deeper into the hole it digs, the more c","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon is 15% off the September all-time high. The deeper into the hole it digs, the more compelling the stock becomes.</li>\n <li>I am bullish at these levels, but balance my excitement with concerns over tough comps and an unfavorable market environment.</li>\n <li>Considering a multi-year horizon, I think that Amazon stock will continue to reward investors with above-market returns.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Amazon (AMZN) has been a loser in 2021. The stock, my&nbsp;Big Tech top pick for 2020, is down 8% for the year so far and 15% since the September all-time highs. Considering the company's&nbsp;strong performance in the holiday quarter&nbsp;and throughout the pandemic year, have shares become a good buy following the current pullback?</p>\n<p>Today, I explain why I think that AMZN is worth considering on the back of slightly de-risked valuation and encouraging historical trends. However, I also see risks in the form of very tough comps in 2021 and a general market environment that will likely not favor growth stocks for another few months.</p>\n<p><b>Why bullish?</b></p>\n<p>The bullish case on Amazon stock begins with the company's business fundamentals and competitive advantage. For instance, the giant's dominance in e-commerce shows no sign of scaling back.</p>\n<p>Growth in North America, supported by the shift in shopping habits that the COVID-19 crisis has accelerated, has combined with green shoot opportunities in international markets to create strong projected platform sales growth of 16% in 2021 off a very high base of nearly half a trillion dollars (see chart below). Things have not been less exciting on the Web Services side of the equation, a beneficiary of the global trends in cloud adoption, despite fierce&nbsp;competition&nbsp;from Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb3ad6fa058e39e4786389b8552b3ec8\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"346\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>The better news is that owning the growth story has become a bit more affordable. Amazon stock's next-year P/E of about 45x is still not a bargain, but it is the lowest that it has been since May 2020 - back when the stock was in the earlier stages of the COVID-19 broad market selloff. For reference, this multiple was hovering around 80x in July of last year, when Amazon&nbsp;delivered a holiday-type quarter&nbsp;in the summer and led me to believe that the $2 trillion market cap was inevitable (it has not happened yet).</p>\n<p>Then, there are the historical trends in the share price. Amazon has been a stock that, regardless of pullbacks, has eventually found its way higher. I believe this will continue to be the case for as long as growth remains a theme. For example, EPS is&nbsp;projected to surpass $200/share&nbsp;in five years while increasing at a 34% pace, pointing at a 2026 forward P/E of only 14x at current prices. I find it highly unlikely that the stock will remain anywhere near $3,000 apiece for as long as Amazon continues to at least match bottom-line expectations.</p>\n<p>Back to historical trends, the graph below shows the average one-year forward return in Amazon since 2000, broken down by how far off the top the stock had been at the time of purchase. Notice that the opportunity of investing in Amazon increases progressively as shares dig deeper into the hole - although, certainly, so does volatility and the anxiety of holding shares.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24550a4c165dcaea1e6b842c2a051dd4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>Source: DM Martins Research, data from Yahoo Finance</span></p>\n<p><b>Why cautious?</b></p>\n<p>Having said the above, I have two reasons to be a bit cautious about the stock at these levels. First, Amazon will have to fight an uphill battle in 2021 only to keep up with the pace of an extraordinary twelve months of sales last year.</p>\n<p>The graph below shows that, despite the massive gain of scale, year-on-year revenue growth of nearly 38% last year reached the highest levels since 2012 at least (blue line). The pace of growth (orange bars) landed at an eye-catching 17 percentage points in 2020, well above the previous multi-year record of less than 7 points in 2016. On the back of tough comps, Amazon shares could have a hard time finding traction.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/382590142f53aa13133d03cdc1223b05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\"><span>Source: Data from Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>Lastly, I continue to believe that mega-cap, high-growth tech companies will remain out of favor in the market&nbsp;relative to value stocks&nbsp;in cyclical sectors for a while longer. The strong outperformance of the former group of stocks in the past decade has only barely been chipped away by the latter group in the past few months. I believe it is still way too early to \"sell the news\" of the upcoming economic recovery and rotate back into Big Tech.</p>\n<p>The current market dynamic can be bearish to Amazon stock, in my view, but mostly in the short term. If considering a multi-year investment horizon, I think that shares of the Seattle-based company will continue to reward shareholders, especially those who take advantage of price declines to lower their cost base, with above-market returns.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Looks Better On The Dip</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Looks Better On The Dip\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-11 15:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4412447-amazon-stock-looks-better-on-dip><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAmazon is 15% off the September all-time high. The deeper into the hole it digs, the more compelling the stock becomes.\nI am bullish at these levels, but balance my excitement with concerns ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4412447-amazon-stock-looks-better-on-dip\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4412447-amazon-stock-looks-better-on-dip","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1141582184","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is 15% off the September all-time high. The deeper into the hole it digs, the more compelling the stock becomes.\nI am bullish at these levels, but balance my excitement with concerns over tough comps and an unfavorable market environment.\nConsidering a multi-year horizon, I think that Amazon stock will continue to reward investors with above-market returns.\n\nAmazon (AMZN) has been a loser in 2021. The stock, my Big Tech top pick for 2020, is down 8% for the year so far and 15% since the September all-time highs. Considering the company's strong performance in the holiday quarter and throughout the pandemic year, have shares become a good buy following the current pullback?\nToday, I explain why I think that AMZN is worth considering on the back of slightly de-risked valuation and encouraging historical trends. However, I also see risks in the form of very tough comps in 2021 and a general market environment that will likely not favor growth stocks for another few months.\nWhy bullish?\nThe bullish case on Amazon stock begins with the company's business fundamentals and competitive advantage. For instance, the giant's dominance in e-commerce shows no sign of scaling back.\nGrowth in North America, supported by the shift in shopping habits that the COVID-19 crisis has accelerated, has combined with green shoot opportunities in international markets to create strong projected platform sales growth of 16% in 2021 off a very high base of nearly half a trillion dollars (see chart below). Things have not been less exciting on the Web Services side of the equation, a beneficiary of the global trends in cloud adoption, despite fierce competition from Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL).\nSource: Statista\nThe better news is that owning the growth story has become a bit more affordable. Amazon stock's next-year P/E of about 45x is still not a bargain, but it is the lowest that it has been since May 2020 - back when the stock was in the earlier stages of the COVID-19 broad market selloff. For reference, this multiple was hovering around 80x in July of last year, when Amazon delivered a holiday-type quarter in the summer and led me to believe that the $2 trillion market cap was inevitable (it has not happened yet).\nThen, there are the historical trends in the share price. Amazon has been a stock that, regardless of pullbacks, has eventually found its way higher. I believe this will continue to be the case for as long as growth remains a theme. For example, EPS is projected to surpass $200/share in five years while increasing at a 34% pace, pointing at a 2026 forward P/E of only 14x at current prices. I find it highly unlikely that the stock will remain anywhere near $3,000 apiece for as long as Amazon continues to at least match bottom-line expectations.\nBack to historical trends, the graph below shows the average one-year forward return in Amazon since 2000, broken down by how far off the top the stock had been at the time of purchase. Notice that the opportunity of investing in Amazon increases progressively as shares dig deeper into the hole - although, certainly, so does volatility and the anxiety of holding shares.\nSource: DM Martins Research, data from Yahoo Finance\nWhy cautious?\nHaving said the above, I have two reasons to be a bit cautious about the stock at these levels. First, Amazon will have to fight an uphill battle in 2021 only to keep up with the pace of an extraordinary twelve months of sales last year.\nThe graph below shows that, despite the massive gain of scale, year-on-year revenue growth of nearly 38% last year reached the highest levels since 2012 at least (blue line). The pace of growth (orange bars) landed at an eye-catching 17 percentage points in 2020, well above the previous multi-year record of less than 7 points in 2016. On the back of tough comps, Amazon shares could have a hard time finding traction.\nSource: Data from Seeking Alpha\nLastly, I continue to believe that mega-cap, high-growth tech companies will remain out of favor in the market relative to value stocks in cyclical sectors for a while longer. The strong outperformance of the former group of stocks in the past decade has only barely been chipped away by the latter group in the past few months. I believe it is still way too early to \"sell the news\" of the upcoming economic recovery and rotate back into Big Tech.\nThe current market dynamic can be bearish to Amazon stock, in my view, but mostly in the short term. If considering a multi-year investment horizon, I think that shares of the Seattle-based company will continue to reward shareholders, especially those who take advantage of price declines to lower their cost base, with above-market returns.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":667,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}