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$理想汽车(LI)$ $理想汽车-W(02015)$ 交付销量持续破新高，Non-GAAP净利润有望超预期

整体业绩前瞻 – 销量交付持续破新高，预计收入维持高增长，Non-GAAP 净利润转正后进一步环比增长，有望继续超预期。 截至 7 月 25 号，彭博一致预期 23Q2 收入 264.1 亿元，同比+202.5%；毛利率为 20.8%，同比-0.7pct，环比+0.4pct；NoN-GAAP归母净利润一致预期 14.7 亿元。

23Q2E preview: sales and deliveries set new highs; improving non-GAAP net profit Li Auto’s latest data release has Q2 breaking sales and delivery records. The company estimates revenue maintained high growth in the quarter, while non-GAAP net profit rose after turning positive, exceeding expectations. Bloomberg consensus (BBG) projects Li Auto’s 23Q2E revenue at RMB26.41bn as of 25 July, up 202.5% yoy; with gross margin at 20.8%, down 0.7ppt yoy and up 0.4ppt qoq; and non-GAAP net profit at RMB1.47bn

销量情况：理想 Q2 共交付 86533 台，同比+201.6%；6月理想交付量 32575台，月度交付量首次突破三万，同比+150.1%，L 系列爆款持续验证，也验证我们前期Q2单月交付3万的观点；理想成为继奔驰、宝马、奥迪和特斯拉之后，第五家月交付量突破3万辆的豪华品牌，也是唯一一家月交付量超过3万辆的中国豪华品牌。爆款现象的背后是强大产品力和品牌力的支撑，验证我们去年 7 月深度报告中的观点。详见《理想汽车-从 One 和 L9 的产品产略看理想未来双平台的增量》，理想新车型销量的高增速持续验证其产能爬坡能力与较强供应链管理能力。

Sales: deliveries amounted to 86,533 vehicles in 23Q2, up 201.6% yoy, and 32,575 vehicles in June, up 150.1% yoy, as Li Auto revved past the 30,000 monthly mark for the first time ever. The strong data validates the popularity of its L-series models as well as our Q2E monthly estimate of 30,000 vehicle deliveries. Among automakers that exceeded the monthly 30,000 vehicles threshold, Li Auto is the only Chinese luxury brand and places fifth behind Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi and Tesla. We believe Li Auto’s product and brand strength drove the popularity of its top-sellers, affirming our in-depth report published last July (for details, please refer to: Future Incremental Impact of ONE and L9 Dual Platforms). High sales growth rates of its new models are a testament to its incremental capacity buildout and supply chain management.

盈利情况：预计 Q2 毛利率持续增长，实现更高 Non-GAAP 盈利，有望超市场一致预期：我们预计 L9 在新平台和 46 万的价格带基础上具备更高的毛利空间，随着 L7 的高效产能爬坡与理想ONE库存的逐步出清，毛利率有持续提升的空间。我们预计总费用为 50.2 亿元，同比增长 75.9%；研发费用预计为 27.3 亿元，同比+78.3%；销售费用预计为 22.9 亿元，同比+73.1%。我们预计Q2 Non-GAAP利润为20.0亿元，或将超市场预期。我们预计 23 年理想仍会加大研发端的投入，理想汽车预计投入超过 100 亿元的研发费用，销售费用端因为新车型和门店会持续增长，但销售费用率或呈下降趋势。

Profitability: we expect a Q2E gross margin rise to bring higher non-GAAP profit, outperforming BBG. We expect the L9 model would post a higher gross margin on the new platform and RMB460,000 price band, L7 would show more efficient production capacity, gradual clearing of Li ONE inventory, and expanding gross margin growth headroom. We expect total expenses would have amounted to RMB5.02bn in Q2E, up 75.9% yoy, with R&D expenses at RMB2.73bn, up 78.3% yoy, and sales expenses at RMB2.29bn, up 73.1% yoy. We estimate Q2E non-GAAP profit at RMB2bn, which would exceed market expectations. We expect Li Auto will continue to increase R&D investments to more than RMB10bn in 2023E. Meanwhile, its sales expenses could continue to increase with new models and stores, although sales expense ratio could track a downtrend.

23Q3展望：我们看好L8/L9三季度或有望实现每月过万辆的交付，L7或有望实现超1.5万辆月交付目标。理想于4月18日发布双能战略，标志着理想汽车正式迈入“电能”与“智能”并驾齐驱的新阶段。理想首款5C纯电超级旗舰车型理想MEGA将于Q4发布。智能驾驶方面，理想AI大模型技术落地应用，6月开启不依赖高精地图的城市NOA试驾，H2开始向用户交付通勤NOA的功能。我们看好 L7 或能成为中大型 5 座 SUV 空间&智能化的天花板车型之一，预计 23e 销量 14 万台；L9&L8 我们预计 23e 整年销量为 22 万台左右；整体 23e 理想销量我们预计 34~35 万台 。

23Q3E outlook: planned model launches include 5C EV supermodel in Q4E. We anticipate the L8 and L9 models could achieve monthly deliveries of over 10,000

vehicles in Q3E, while L7 could reach monthly deliveries of over 15,000 vehicles. Li Auto entered a new phase of business when it rolled out a dual-energy strategy on 18 April,marking electric energy and intelligentization as twin drivers. Up ahead, the automaker plans to launch Li MEGA, its first 5C pure electric flagship supermodel in Q4E. In smart driving, it has applied an AI large language model technology. It launched tests for urban NOA driving in June, which does not rely on high-precision maps. The company has scheduled to begin deliveries of models with the commuting NOA function in H2E. We anticipate the L7 could become one of the top-selling medium-to-large 5-seater SUV models that combine space with intelligence; we project sales volume at 140,000 vehicles in 2023E; as for L9 and L8, we expect sales volume of around 220,000 vehicles in 2023E. We expect Li Auto to post total sales of 340,000-350,000 vehicles in 2023E.

行业展望与判断：新势力整车主要关注点为政策、流动性、经济复苏等带来的变化。7月24日中央政治局会议强调，发挥消费拉动经济增长的基础性作用，提振汽车、电子产品、家居等大宗消费。我们认为此次会议或为后续行业性政策支持定下基调。在经济恢复与政策利好下，我们看好下半年整车消费的行业beta。我们预计随着前期新车产能的交付和上线，交付量领先的品牌更具竞争优势并有望持续扩大，产能爬坡的规模效应或带来的利润端的改善。

NEV drivers: changes in policy, market liquidity and economic recovery. The 24 July meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized the fundamental role of consumption in driving economic growth. China would boost the consumption of automobiles, electronic products and home furnishing. We believe the meeting sets the tone for subsequent industry policies. Helped by the economic recovery and favorable policies, we are bullish about industry beta for vehicle consumption in H2E. With NEV deliveries and production capacity build in an early stage of growth, brands with larger delivery volumes have a competitive advantage. We expect they will continue to expand and the scale effect of a production capacity ramp-up would improve profits.

投资建议：我们看好理想汽车的成长性与随着规模效应率先展露出来的盈 利能力。我们认为理想拥有稳固且竞争力强的产品图谱、更好的成本管理能力。在消费与经济稳步恢复和潜在地方政策落地刺激需求的背景下，公司上半年有望呈现出高于去年的增速并有望在Q3延续单月销量3万以上，且盈利能力或随规模效应有望不断改善。建议紧密关注理想今年三款车型的订单、销量和产能爬坡。我们预计公司23-25年收入1204/2032/2777亿元，对应预测PS估值2.4/1.4/1.0倍。我们调整目标价为190港元，基于23E PS估值3.0x，维持“买入评级”。

Valuation and risks: We are bullish about Li Auto’s growth potential and the emerging effect of scale on its profitability. We believe it has a solid and competitive product portfolio with better cost management capability. Against the backdrop of a steady consumption and economic recovery, alongside potential local policies to stimulate demand, we expect the company will show higher growth yoy in 23H1E. We believe it will likely continue to sell over 30,000 vehicles a month in Q3E, as profitability improves on a rising scale effect. We would monitor growth in orders, sales and production capacity for Li Auto’s three models this year. We forecast revenue will arrive at RMB120.4bn/203.2bn/277.7bn in 2023/24/25E, corresponding to 2.4/1.4/1.0x PS. We adjust our target price to HKD190, corresponding to 3.0x 2023E PS, and maintain our BUY rating.

风险提示：汽车售价波动导致的毛利风险；今年新车型不及预期；今年新能源行业与政策不及预期等

Risks include: volatile car prices hurting gross profit; weaker-than-expected new model launches this year; and worse-than-expected NEV industry data and policies this year.

来源：天风海外