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Goldman Analysts’ Bearish China Bank View Draws Fresh Criticism 高盛分析师对中国银行业持悲观态度的观点引发了新一轮批评

Merchants Bank says report misleading, lacking common sense 招商银行表示报告误导，缺乏常识

Analysts face growing scrutiny in China on their research 分析师在中国面临着对其研究的日益严格审查

Shares of Merchants Bank have lost 12% in Hong Kong since Goldman cut its target price.Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg 招商银行的股票在高盛下调目标价后在香港下跌了12%。摄影师：Brent Lewin/Bloomberg

July 10, 2023, 8:50 AM UTC 2023年7月10日上午8点50分

A bearish research report on Chinese banks by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has drawn fresh criticism from one of the nation’s biggest lenders after receiving backlash from a state media. 高盛集团发布的一份对中国银行的看空研究报告在国内最大的一家银行之一遭到了国家媒体的批评后，再次引发了争议。

Goldman’s assumptions have “misled some investors and caused them to worry about the asset quality,” China Merchants Bank Co. said in a clarification statement to investors that was seen by Bloomberg News.  中国$招商银行(03968)$    在一份向投资者的澄清声明中表示，高盛的假设“误导了一些投资者，并使他们对资产质量感到担忧。”该声明已被彭博新闻看到。

At stake was a report published by Goldman analysts including Shuo Yang last Tuesday, which highlighted margin risks and potential credit losses from banks’ exposure to local government debt. Yang, a former official at the China banking regulator, estimated that the “implied loss ratio of credit portfolio in debt investment book” could reach 25% for Merchants Bank, compared with 6% on average for lenders under its coverage. 所涉及的是上周二由高盛分析师包括杨硕发布的一份报告，该报告强调了银行暴露于地方政府债务所面临的保证金风险和潜在信用损失。杨硕是中国银行监管机构的前官员，他估计招商银行的“债务投资账簿中信用组合的隐含损失比例”可能达到25%，而其覆盖的其他银行平均为6%。

Shares of Merchants Bank have lost 12% in Hong Kong since Goldman cut its target price for the second time in three months with a neutral rating. The US bank now has one of the lowest target prices for the Chinese lender, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. $招商银行(03968)$  的股票在香港市场自高盛第二次下调其目标价后已经下跌了12%，高盛给予该股中性评级。根据彭博社的数据，这家美国银行现在给这家中国银行设定的目标价是最低的之一。

Merchants Bank argued that Goldman’s report is illogical in the way it calculates the potential losses, lacks basic common sense, and also overestimates its exposure to the local government financing vehicles.  招商银行认为高盛的报告在计算潜在损失方面是不合逻辑的，缺乏基本常识，并且过高估计了其对地方政府融资工具的风险敞口。

Investor concerns are mounting over the health of China’s debt-laden local-government financing vehicles amid a slumping property market. Worries that banks may incur losses from these debts started spiraling after some state-owned lenders began to offer extra credit support to LGFVs. 投资者对中国负债累累的地方政府融资平台的健康状况越来越担忧，尤其是在房地产市场下滑的背景下。担心银行可能因这些债务而遭受损失的担忧在一些国有银行开始为地方政府融资平台提供额外信贷支持后开始蔓延。

Merchants Bank said it had about 132.6 billion yuan ($18.3 billion) of loans to LGFVs on its balance sheet at the end of 2022, much lower than Goldman’s estimate of 1 trillion yuan.  招商银行表示，截至2022年底，其资产负债表上的地方政府融资平台贷款约为1,326亿元人民币（183亿美元），远低于高盛估计的1万亿元人民币。

This isn’t the first time Wall Street research has proved controversial in China. The last high-profile saga involved an “uninvestable” call on Chinese Internet firms by JPMorgan Chase & Co. last year, which eventually cost the brokerage a senior underwriter role in a stock listing. The incident underscored the tricky path global banks have to navigate as they ramped up their businesses in China, while still giving clients access to candid research on the country’s turbulent markets. 这并不是华尔街研究在中国引起争议的第一次。去年，摩根大通公司对中国互联网公司发出了一个“不值得投资”的呼吁，这最终导致该券商失去了一项高级承销商的角色。这一事件凸显了全球银行在扩大在中国业务的同时，仍然要为客户提供对该国动荡市场的坦诚研究所面临的困难路径。

Wall Street’s once-ambitious vision in China has faced a reality check in recent years, as a sluggish economy and Beijing’s crackdown on foreign businesses forced them to rethink strategies. Goldman and Morgan Stanley are among those scaling back profit goals and expansion plans, while some are already heading for the exit as tensions with the US mount. 华尔街在中国的雄心勃勃的愿景近年来受到现实的打击，经济疲软和北京对外国企业的打压迫使它们不得不重新思考战略。高盛和摩根士丹利等公司都在削减利润目标和扩张计划，而一些公司已经开始撤离，因为与美国的紧张关系不断升级。

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