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2021-06-16

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Facebook Stock Forecast For 2025: What Is In Store?

Summary Facebook is a dominant company in its industry, has a great moat, and benefits from macro t

Facebook Stock Forecast For 2025: What Is In Store?

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":169203093,"tweetId":"169203093","gmtCreate":1623835825112,"gmtModify":1634027359694,"author":{"id":3581740608150722,"authorId":3581740608150722,"authorIdStr":"3581740608150722","name":"Charleswong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/073409e07fe58ffb261a2467cbe8ee69","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>发啦</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>发啦</body></html>","text":"发啦","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169203093","repostId":1172455870,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172455870","pubTimestamp":1623823817,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172455870?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 14:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Facebook Stock Forecast For 2025: What Is In Store?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172455870","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nFacebook is a dominant company in its industry, has a great moat, and benefits from macro t","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Facebook is a dominant company in its industry, has a great moat, and benefits from macro tailwinds such as digitalization.</li>\n <li>User growth, increased monetization of its platforms, and share buybacks should result in ample EPS growth over the coming years.</li>\n <li>Even when we use rather conservative assumptions, the upside potential for FB is quite meaningful, which is why I deem the stock attractive.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">JuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nFacebook (FB) is a dominant social media company in the markets it serves, and its moat makes it likely that it will continue to hold the top spots in this space with its social networks. This, combined with excellent fundamentals, a clean balance sheet, a healthy growth outlook, and an inexpensive valuation should result in considerable upside potential over the coming four years, although there are some risk factors that investors should keep an eye on.\nFB Stock Price\nFacebook, Inc. is, thanks to massive profitability and a dominating position in social media, one of the highest-valued companies in the United States. With shares trading at $335 each, Facebook is currently valued at around $940 billion, not far from the rare $1 trillion mark that has been breached by just a couple of stocks, such as Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a015682255c9f25d5c1f2d2e0fcfa22\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\">Data by YCharts\nShares of Facebook have climbed by 45% over the last year, which is very close to the broad market's 42% total return over the same time frame. In early 2021, shares had lagged the market, but more recently, Facebook's stock has experienced a sizeable uptick, and shares are trading very close to all-time highs today. Nevertheless, FB stock isn't really expensive, as shares are trading for 25x this year's expected earnings per share right now, which is pretty close to the S&amp;P 500's (SPY) 2021 expected earnings multiple of 23x (according to YCharts). Facebook trades at a small premium compared to the broad market, but that could very well be justified, based on Facebook's quality, moat, and compelling growth rates. In fact, I believe that Facebook, at 25x forward earnings and a revenue growth rate of 20%+, is more attractive than many stocks that trade at 23x forward earnings and that do not grow by anything close to 20%+ a year.\nWe can also take a look at Facebook's historic valuation ranges in order to gauge whether the current valuation makes sense:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22f6c537828d175a57b12eb478d0af5e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\">Data by YCharts\nHistorically, Facebook was more expensive than it is today. To some degree, that makes sense, as relative revenue growth and earnings growth were higher a couple of years ago versus today. But still, at an earnings multiple that is clearly below the long-term median, Facebook can't be called expensive today -- even after an attractive 21% year-to-date gain for its shares.\nIs Facebook Stock Going To Go Up?\nIn the short term, stock prices can be driven by psychology, market sentiment, etc. In the long run, however, fundamentals and underlying cash flows and earnings decide whether a stock is going up or down. In Facebook's case, we have seen times when the stock price moved in a different direction compared to the business. Take, for example, Facebook's share price decline in H2 of 2018, when shares dropped from $200+ to as low as $130. Was this based on declining revenue and weak profitability? The answer is a resounding no -- underlying growth remained highly attractive in that time frame:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b7d815ab9ee5cba2b3c0f4c42978cf1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\">Data by YCharts\nRevenues continued to climb, and so did FB's earnings per share. And yet, the market value of Facebook's shares dropped by more than one-third. This can be explained by weak sentiment, as the market worried about changes to the news feed on the Facebook platform, while other issues such as the Cambridge Analytica data collection scandal hurt sentiment as well. None of these issues, however, impacted Facebook's operations on a lasting basis, showcased by the fact that revenue and profits continued to grow as if there had been no scandal at all.\nNot surprisingly, not too much later, the market realized that none of these issues would doom Facebook and that the company was still executing very well. The stock recovered relatively quickly and started to climb to new highs, which resulted in steep gains for those that bought at the lows, while the market was fearful.\nThe same should hold true in the future as well. There will always be a reason to worry and some scandal or issue, but the market tends to overreact to these things that usually do not impact Facebook meaningfully. This includes, for example, the ad boycotts of the past -- none of these ever led to a large revenue or profit decline.\nIn the long run, Facebook's stock should thus continue to climb as long as the company is able to execute well and grow its business, and I believe that there is a good chance for that. This does, however, not mean that share prices will never experience declines. History has shown that those declines occur from time to time, but eventually, share prices will start to climb again in order to catch up with fundamentals.\nFacebook's revenue and earnings growth in future years will rest on several pillars. The first of these is user growth -- despite its already massive scale, Facebook manages to grow its user count very reliably, adding about 150 million new daily active users across its platforms over the last year alone:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/274940cc6f4303bd419072fb17155240\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"960\">Source: FBpresentation\nWe see that there has not been a single quarter in the recent past during which Facebook's user count declined. Since the world is growing more interconnected every year, and since more and more people get access to the internet in many markets around the globe, the same growth tailwinds should exist in the future, too, I believe. Since Facebookowns 4 out of the top 5 social networks,it will be a key beneficiary of global industry growth, although it should be noted that in some markets, primarily China, access to its platforms is restricted. More or less everywhere else, however, Facebook continues to experience user growth, including in North America.\nOn top of that, Facebook can also grow its revenue by increasing monetization, i.e. by collecting more dollars per user. Marketing budgets around the globe are increasingly being shifted towards social media and online marketing, which allows for better targeting, faster ad campaigns, etc. Social media marketing budgets are expected to continue togrow at a rapid pace, and again, thanks to its dominance in this industry, Facebook should be one of the biggest winners from this trend. Last but not least, Facebook also is seeking to create new revenue sources, which includes monetizing WhatsApp, e.g.by integrating payment options.\nFacebook also continues to spend heavily on R&amp;D ($19.6 billion over the last four quarters according to YCharts), which includes hardware gadgets such as smartwatches, and AR devices. Augmented reality and virtual reality don't drive revenue growth in the near term, but these projects could be long-term drivers of Facebook's success during the second half of the 2020s if the company's projects come to fruition.\nFacebook's earnings per share growth will also be positively impacted by share buybacks. Thanks to strong free cash flows and a very clean balance sheet, which holds a $65 billion net cash position according tothe most recent 10-Q filing, Facebook can easily spend dozens of billions of dollars on repurchasing its own shares without getting into financial troubles. Over the years, these buybacks should grow into a meaningful factor for the company's ongoing EPS growth story.\nWith all these growth factors in place, it is not really surprising to see that the analyst community, overall, is relatively bullish on Facebook's long-term outlook:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fc74d571edba4272843b67a6e5fc097\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\">Data by YCharts\nEPS is forecasted to grow by 15% in 2022, by 17% in 2023, and by 21% per year in the long run. Even if these estimates are too bullish and Facebook achieves just two-thirds of what analysts are forecasting right now, Facebook would still deliver highly attractive EPS growth well in the double-digits over the coming years.\nFacebook Stock Forecast For 2025\nBased on Facebook's expected growth, I believe that there is considerable upside for shares over the next four years. If Facebook hits EPS of $13.10 this year, and grow its EPS by 14% a year through 2025, which would be significantly less than the past growth rate and significantly less than the current consensus, thus this is a rather conservative estimate, then FB's EPS in 2025 would be $22.10 in 2025.\nFacebook currently trades at 25x earnings, and I do not think this is a too-high multiple at all. But let's nevertheless assume that there will be some multiple contraction over the next four years in order to be conservative. If Facebook trades at 22x its EPS in 2025, which would be significantly less than the long-term median earnings multiple FB has traded at in the past, then we get to a share price target of $486 in 2025. Rounding this to $490, we get to an expected upside of around 45% from the current price over the next 4.5 years, which equates to a 9% annual return. Even in this rather conservative scenario, shares should thus generate healthy returns over the coming years, which tells me that FB is still attractive today -- even though shares were, of course, even more attractive at $250 earlier this year.\nTakeaway\nFacebook controls four out of the top five social networks, which gives it an incredible moat thanks to network effects. Most consumers naturally flock to the largest platforms, because that is where all their friends and family members are. Facebook should be able to grow its revenue and its profits materially in the future, even though growth will eventually slow down from what we have seen in the past -- no company can grow at 50% a year forever.\nNo investment is without risk, and there are some risks that investors should consider here as well. FB is highly dependent on key personnel such as CEO Mark Zuckerberg, and due to its dominance in the social media industry, FB is a potential target of anti-trust legislation. So far, even though there have been a couple of senate hearings where Mark Zuckerberg and others were questioned, politicians have not really moved against the company, and I do not expect this to happen in the foreseeable future, either. This is still a potential risk that investors should keep in mind.\nOverall, Facebook has the ability to generate attractive returns over the coming years, which is why I continue to happily hold my shares. FB will likely experience some share price ups and downs from time to time, as it did in the past, but ultimately, the company's strong fundamentals, healthy growth, and shareholder return program should lead to gains for those that invest with a long-term mindset.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Facebook Stock Forecast For 2025: What Is In Store?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFacebook Stock Forecast For 2025: What Is In Store?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 14:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434920-facebook-stock-forecast-2025>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nFacebook is a dominant company in its industry, has a great moat, and benefits from macro tailwinds such as digitalization.\nUser growth, increased monetization of its platforms, and share ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434920-facebook-stock-forecast-2025\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434920-facebook-stock-forecast-2025","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172455870","content_text":"Summary\n\nFacebook is a dominant company in its industry, has a great moat, and benefits from macro tailwinds such as digitalization.\nUser growth, increased monetization of its platforms, and share buybacks should result in ample EPS growth over the coming years.\nEven when we use rather conservative assumptions, the upside potential for FB is quite meaningful, which is why I deem the stock attractive.\n\nJuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nFacebook (FB) is a dominant social media company in the markets it serves, and its moat makes it likely that it will continue to hold the top spots in this space with its social networks. This, combined with excellent fundamentals, a clean balance sheet, a healthy growth outlook, and an inexpensive valuation should result in considerable upside potential over the coming four years, although there are some risk factors that investors should keep an eye on.\nFB Stock Price\nFacebook, Inc. is, thanks to massive profitability and a dominating position in social media, one of the highest-valued companies in the United States. With shares trading at $335 each, Facebook is currently valued at around $940 billion, not far from the rare $1 trillion mark that has been breached by just a couple of stocks, such as Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN).\nData by YCharts\nShares of Facebook have climbed by 45% over the last year, which is very close to the broad market's 42% total return over the same time frame. In early 2021, shares had lagged the market, but more recently, Facebook's stock has experienced a sizeable uptick, and shares are trading very close to all-time highs today. Nevertheless, FB stock isn't really expensive, as shares are trading for 25x this year's expected earnings per share right now, which is pretty close to the S&P 500's (SPY) 2021 expected earnings multiple of 23x (according to YCharts). Facebook trades at a small premium compared to the broad market, but that could very well be justified, based on Facebook's quality, moat, and compelling growth rates. In fact, I believe that Facebook, at 25x forward earnings and a revenue growth rate of 20%+, is more attractive than many stocks that trade at 23x forward earnings and that do not grow by anything close to 20%+ a year.\nWe can also take a look at Facebook's historic valuation ranges in order to gauge whether the current valuation makes sense:\nData by YCharts\nHistorically, Facebook was more expensive than it is today. To some degree, that makes sense, as relative revenue growth and earnings growth were higher a couple of years ago versus today. But still, at an earnings multiple that is clearly below the long-term median, Facebook can't be called expensive today -- even after an attractive 21% year-to-date gain for its shares.\nIs Facebook Stock Going To Go Up?\nIn the short term, stock prices can be driven by psychology, market sentiment, etc. In the long run, however, fundamentals and underlying cash flows and earnings decide whether a stock is going up or down. In Facebook's case, we have seen times when the stock price moved in a different direction compared to the business. Take, for example, Facebook's share price decline in H2 of 2018, when shares dropped from $200+ to as low as $130. Was this based on declining revenue and weak profitability? The answer is a resounding no -- underlying growth remained highly attractive in that time frame:\nData by YCharts\nRevenues continued to climb, and so did FB's earnings per share. And yet, the market value of Facebook's shares dropped by more than one-third. This can be explained by weak sentiment, as the market worried about changes to the news feed on the Facebook platform, while other issues such as the Cambridge Analytica data collection scandal hurt sentiment as well. None of these issues, however, impacted Facebook's operations on a lasting basis, showcased by the fact that revenue and profits continued to grow as if there had been no scandal at all.\nNot surprisingly, not too much later, the market realized that none of these issues would doom Facebook and that the company was still executing very well. The stock recovered relatively quickly and started to climb to new highs, which resulted in steep gains for those that bought at the lows, while the market was fearful.\nThe same should hold true in the future as well. There will always be a reason to worry and some scandal or issue, but the market tends to overreact to these things that usually do not impact Facebook meaningfully. This includes, for example, the ad boycotts of the past -- none of these ever led to a large revenue or profit decline.\nIn the long run, Facebook's stock should thus continue to climb as long as the company is able to execute well and grow its business, and I believe that there is a good chance for that. This does, however, not mean that share prices will never experience declines. History has shown that those declines occur from time to time, but eventually, share prices will start to climb again in order to catch up with fundamentals.\nFacebook's revenue and earnings growth in future years will rest on several pillars. The first of these is user growth -- despite its already massive scale, Facebook manages to grow its user count very reliably, adding about 150 million new daily active users across its platforms over the last year alone:\nSource: FBpresentation\nWe see that there has not been a single quarter in the recent past during which Facebook's user count declined. Since the world is growing more interconnected every year, and since more and more people get access to the internet in many markets around the globe, the same growth tailwinds should exist in the future, too, I believe. Since Facebookowns 4 out of the top 5 social networks,it will be a key beneficiary of global industry growth, although it should be noted that in some markets, primarily China, access to its platforms is restricted. More or less everywhere else, however, Facebook continues to experience user growth, including in North America.\nOn top of that, Facebook can also grow its revenue by increasing monetization, i.e. by collecting more dollars per user. Marketing budgets around the globe are increasingly being shifted towards social media and online marketing, which allows for better targeting, faster ad campaigns, etc. Social media marketing budgets are expected to continue togrow at a rapid pace, and again, thanks to its dominance in this industry, Facebook should be one of the biggest winners from this trend. Last but not least, Facebook also is seeking to create new revenue sources, which includes monetizing WhatsApp, e.g.by integrating payment options.\nFacebook also continues to spend heavily on R&D ($19.6 billion over the last four quarters according to YCharts), which includes hardware gadgets such as smartwatches, and AR devices. Augmented reality and virtual reality don't drive revenue growth in the near term, but these projects could be long-term drivers of Facebook's success during the second half of the 2020s if the company's projects come to fruition.\nFacebook's earnings per share growth will also be positively impacted by share buybacks. Thanks to strong free cash flows and a very clean balance sheet, which holds a $65 billion net cash position according tothe most recent 10-Q filing, Facebook can easily spend dozens of billions of dollars on repurchasing its own shares without getting into financial troubles. Over the years, these buybacks should grow into a meaningful factor for the company's ongoing EPS growth story.\nWith all these growth factors in place, it is not really surprising to see that the analyst community, overall, is relatively bullish on Facebook's long-term outlook:\nData by YCharts\nEPS is forecasted to grow by 15% in 2022, by 17% in 2023, and by 21% per year in the long run. Even if these estimates are too bullish and Facebook achieves just two-thirds of what analysts are forecasting right now, Facebook would still deliver highly attractive EPS growth well in the double-digits over the coming years.\nFacebook Stock Forecast For 2025\nBased on Facebook's expected growth, I believe that there is considerable upside for shares over the next four years. If Facebook hits EPS of $13.10 this year, and grow its EPS by 14% a year through 2025, which would be significantly less than the past growth rate and significantly less than the current consensus, thus this is a rather conservative estimate, then FB's EPS in 2025 would be $22.10 in 2025.\nFacebook currently trades at 25x earnings, and I do not think this is a too-high multiple at all. But let's nevertheless assume that there will be some multiple contraction over the next four years in order to be conservative. If Facebook trades at 22x its EPS in 2025, which would be significantly less than the long-term median earnings multiple FB has traded at in the past, then we get to a share price target of $486 in 2025. Rounding this to $490, we get to an expected upside of around 45% from the current price over the next 4.5 years, which equates to a 9% annual return. Even in this rather conservative scenario, shares should thus generate healthy returns over the coming years, which tells me that FB is still attractive today -- even though shares were, of course, even more attractive at $250 earlier this year.\nTakeaway\nFacebook controls four out of the top five social networks, which gives it an incredible moat thanks to network effects. Most consumers naturally flock to the largest platforms, because that is where all their friends and family members are. Facebook should be able to grow its revenue and its profits materially in the future, even though growth will eventually slow down from what we have seen in the past -- no company can grow at 50% a year forever.\nNo investment is without risk, and there are some risks that investors should consider here as well. FB is highly dependent on key personnel such as CEO Mark Zuckerberg, and due to its dominance in the social media industry, FB is a potential target of anti-trust legislation. So far, even though there have been a couple of senate hearings where Mark Zuckerberg and others were questioned, politicians have not really moved against the company, and I do not expect this to happen in the foreseeable future, either. This is still a potential risk that investors should keep in mind.\nOverall, Facebook has the ability to generate attractive returns over the coming years, which is why I continue to happily hold my shares. FB will likely experience some share price ups and downs from time to time, as it did in the past, but ultimately, the company's strong fundamentals, healthy growth, and shareholder return program should lead to gains for those that invest with a long-term mindset.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":255,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}