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- WadanWadan
  ·2021-06-25
  [呆住] [得意] [得意] [得意]
  估值比疫情前还便宜！美股科技股的逆袭刚刚开始？
  FANMAG目前的平均预期市盈率为29.9倍，这只比2019年12月疫情前的约28倍高一点点，比去年年中40倍的峰值大幅下降。实际上，如果考虑到下降的无风险利率，FANMAG的股票可能比2019年12月时更便宜。
  估值比疫情前还便宜！美股科技股的逆袭刚刚开始？
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、Netflix、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet，即所谓的FANMAG集团的平均涨幅为4.5%。这超过了标准普尔500指数同期1.4%的涨幅，略高于纳斯达克指数4.4%的涨幅。</p>\n<p>华尔街见闻此前提及，今年初以来，随着美债收益率快速走高，美股快速轮动，疫情期间风光无限的科技巨头们股价大幅回调，而对经济复苏较为敏感的周期股集体反弹。</p>\n<p>但近期，随着通胀预期降温，美债收益率下行，科技股重获市场青睐，尤其是上周美联储暗示将早于预期加息以来，科技股涨势加剧。</p>\n<p>经过一番回调，目前美国科技巨头们的估值已经开始彰显吸引力，这意味着这些科技领头羊有望继续上涨。</p>\n<p>巴克莱(Barclays)的数据显示，FANMAG目前的平均预期市盈率为29.9倍。这只比2019年12月大流行开始前的约28倍高一点点，比去年年中40倍的峰值大幅下降。巴克莱策略师Maneesh Deshpande认为目前这些股票相对便宜，并在周二将其评级上调为增持。</p>\n<p>实际上，如果考虑到无风险利率，FANMAG的股票可能比2019年12月时更便宜。</p>\n<p>一般来说，在其他条件相同的情况下，债券收益率越低，股票的总体估值就越高。目前，美国10年期国债收益率约为1.47%，低于2019年12月的1.8%。然而，尽管债券收益率下降，FANMAG的市盈率仍接近2019年的水平，这表明其估值相对低廉。</p>\n<p>这些合理的估值意味着只要利润持续增长，股票就有望继续上涨。据巴克莱(Barclays)预测，这些公司的平均每股收益到2022年将增长9%，到2023年将增长14%。</p>\n<p>由于大多数投资者正忙着从此前大火的再通胀交易中撤离，有分析指出，科技股可能成为下一个巨大的“痛苦交易”（pain trade）。</p>\n<p>所谓痛苦交易是指市场时不时地对大多数投资者施加最大程度的惩罚，即当一种受欢迎的资产类别或被广泛遵循的投资策略出现了意想不到的转折，让大多数投资者措手不及时，就会出现痛苦交易。</p>\n<p>从技术分析层面看，纳斯达克指数已经突破上方阻力位，在小幅回调后，有望继续上攻。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52418cee12c01429a14744c4b2f33e3c\" tg-width=\"1274\" tg-height=\"840\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">苹果很快也将接近第一个阻力位，如果人们再次“被迫”追逐大型科技公司，这种势头可能会持续下去。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c38c4df197474d6bb357adfa0ccf01c7\" tg-width=\"1279\" tg-height=\"839\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">亚马逊股价也在逼近区间上方。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e1b6776c36fcd0f3da62f1f9ab7c6cb\" tg-width=\"1276\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">然而，过去6个月来，投资者一直在降低对科技股的持仓。随着科技巨头重新彰显优势，对大型科技公司的“突然”追逐可能是下一个巨大的痛苦交易……<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/501cb7c54be89920e943c58a8dd53e14\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n估值比疫情前还便宜！美股科技股的逆袭刚刚开始？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 09:51 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633733><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国科技股卷土重来之势愈发迅猛，这让过去一段时间忙于交易通胀的投资者措手不及。目前美国巨头的估值已经回调至疫情前的水平，甚至更加低廉，这意味着科技股有望再次成为投资者集体追逐的对象。\n周三，美股三大股指中仅以科技股为重的纳斯达克综合指数收涨，上涨 0.13%，报14271.73点，连涨三日，且连续两日收创历史新高。在过去的一个月里，Facebook、苹果、Netflix、微软、亚马逊和谷歌母公司...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633733\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3cdd0b2f46028be0fdb985c3d97141c","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","03086":"华夏纳指","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633733","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145011822","content_text":"美国科技股卷土重来之势愈发迅猛，这让过去一段时间忙于交易通胀的投资者措手不及。目前美国巨头的估值已经回调至疫情前的水平，甚至更加低廉，这意味着科技股有望再次成为投资者集体追逐的对象。\n周三，美股三大股指中仅以科技股为重的纳斯达克综合指数收涨，上涨 0.13%，报14271.73点，连涨三日，且连续两日收创历史新高。在过去的一个月里，Facebook、苹果、Netflix、微软、亚马逊和谷歌母公司Alphabet，即所谓的FANMAG集团的平均涨幅为4.5%。这超过了标准普尔500指数同期1.4%的涨幅，略高于纳斯达克指数4.4%的涨幅。\n华尔街见闻此前提及，今年初以来，随着美债收益率快速走高，美股快速轮动，疫情期间风光无限的科技巨头们股价大幅回调，而对经济复苏较为敏感的周期股集体反弹。\n但近期，随着通胀预期降温，美债收益率下行，科技股重获市场青睐，尤其是上周美联储暗示将早于预期加息以来，科技股涨势加剧。\n经过一番回调，目前美国科技巨头们的估值已经开始彰显吸引力，这意味着这些科技领头羊有望继续上涨。\n巴克莱(Barclays)的数据显示，FANMAG目前的平均预期市盈率为29.9倍。这只比2019年12月大流行开始前的约28倍高一点点，比去年年中40倍的峰值大幅下降。巴克莱策略师Maneesh Deshpande认为目前这些股票相对便宜，并在周二将其评级上调为增持。\n实际上，如果考虑到无风险利率，FANMAG的股票可能比2019年12月时更便宜。\n一般来说，在其他条件相同的情况下，债券收益率越低，股票的总体估值就越高。目前，美国10年期国债收益率约为1.47%，低于2019年12月的1.8%。然而，尽管债券收益率下降，FANMAG的市盈率仍接近2019年的水平，这表明其估值相对低廉。\n这些合理的估值意味着只要利润持续增长，股票就有望继续上涨。据巴克莱(Barclays)预测，这些公司的平均每股收益到2022年将增长9%，到2023年将增长14%。\n由于大多数投资者正忙着从此前大火的再通胀交易中撤离，有分析指出，科技股可能成为下一个巨大的“痛苦交易”（pain trade）。\n所谓痛苦交易是指市场时不时地对大多数投资者施加最大程度的惩罚，即当一种受欢迎的资产类别或被广泛遵循的投资策略出现了意想不到的转折，让大多数投资者措手不及时，就会出现痛苦交易。\n从技术分析层面看，纳斯达克指数已经突破上方阻力位，在小幅回调后，有望继续上攻。苹果很快也将接近第一个阻力位，如果人们再次“被迫”追逐大型科技公司，这种势头可能会持续下去。亚马逊股价也在逼近区间上方。然而，过去6个月来，投资者一直在降低对科技股的持仓。随着科技巨头重新彰显优势，对大型科技公司的“突然”追逐可能是下一个巨大的痛苦交易……","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}