光大证券：被低估的版图多口径量化测算腾讯投资板块价值几何？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

光大证券：被低估的版图多口径量化测算腾讯投资板块价值几何？

光大证券07-31 15:19

如何量化腾讯投资版图的价值？梳理持股上市公司市值或达五千亿级。腾讯凭借强大的资金能力和微信入口，通过接连不断对外投资筑起庞大投资版图。口径1：根据腾讯财报数据，我们加总测算得到，其主要上市企业和非上市企业的投资体量于24Q1 同比增长；腾讯于上市企业的投资24Q1 为3568 亿元人民币，同比增长6.6%，连续两个季度实现增长。口径2：各公开市场来看，我们整理24M6 腾讯持股共67 家上市公司，...

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等）进行套现。资金面跟踪：南向稳步加仓、腾讯高额回购，大股东减持影响仍在低位。腾讯回购计划24 年回购金额超1000 亿港元，大股东回购计划预期24 年回购541 亿港元。1）24Q2 腾讯持续在每个交易日（静默期除外）平均回购10 亿港元，合计回购375 亿港元，yoy+206%。2）24Q2 腾讯大股东Prosus 及Naspers 回购计划金额环比有所提升，但仍维持低位。我们测算得当下Prosus持有腾讯折价率并未得到明显缩窄，Prosus 或维持其对腾讯的减持。基本面要点：微信视频号等高毛利业务变现推进，有望持续推高利润端表现。1Q24Non-IFRS 净利润502.65 亿元，yoy+54%；净利率31.5%，yoy+9.8pcts；毛利率52.6%，yoy+7.2pcts，微信生态用户参与度健康增长，视频号&小程序&小游戏等产生高毛利率、具有平台经济效应的收入，有望驱动利润端持续释放弹性。24Q1 视频号总用户使用时长yoy+超80%，24 年微信小游戏MAU超5 亿，人均日使用时长达60 分钟，24Q1 小游戏流水yoy+30%。游戏板块有望进入顺产品周期，24Q1 本土市场流水yoy+3%，海外市场流水yoy+34%，《DNF 手游》24Q2 表现火热，《王者荣耀破晓》《三角洲行动》等产品有望逐步释放业绩增量，递延收入24Q1 为1061 亿元，yoy+9.2%，达历史新高。盈利预测、估值与评级：1Q24 公司Non-IFRS 净利润增长显著，受高毛利业务增长持续推进，维持看好业绩顺产品周期回暖和降本增效下经营杠杆持续优化，上调公司24-26 年Non-IFRS 归母净利润预测至2,115.5/2,364.7/2,554.2亿元（相对上次预测分别+13.3%/+12.4/+11.3%），现价分别对应24-26 年Non-IFRS PE 15/14/13 倍，维持“买入”评级，维持目标价430 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