内卷的618：流量贵6倍，80%商家亏钱陪跑？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

内卷的618：流量贵6倍，80%商家亏钱陪跑？

Tech星球2021-06-20

618谁在涌入，谁在躺平，谁在陪跑？ 3438亿，跟去年618总销售额2692亿元相比，京东今年618累计下单金额高出746亿。今年有4.4万中小商家首次参加天猫618，预售排行榜前100名爆款中，超过4成是新品。6月1日至16日，天猫品牌商家新增6000万会员，品牌店铺直播成交额比去年同期增长超100%。首次加入618大战的抖音也在6月19日发布战报，抖音618直播总时长2852万小时，...

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KenCheng
·2021-06-21
股市快飞吧
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1
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海星辰
·2021-06-20
618热度没了
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1
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Ariel1994
·2021-06-20
[财迷]
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1
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teangkw
·2021-06-20
[强]
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1
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Momocha
·2021-06-20
良好
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2
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西部波浪卷
·2021-06-20
内卷太严重，搞不动了
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2
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罗家三少爷
·2021-06-20
税收好了，日子过不下去了，就是新渠道的机会
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1
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shakazhang
·2021-06-20
这个模式也到头了吧
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点赞
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GoatYen
·2021-06-20
[财迷]
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中国ChinaATM
·2021-06-20
京东和阿里巴巴那家好啊？
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妮可儿的
·2021-06-20
支持
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JWZ137
·2021-06-20
任务[开心]
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应何文
·2021-06-20
没钱了，真没钱了
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收起
- JWZ137:
  wow
  2021-06-20
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云里梦里飞
·2021-06-20
618已经卷不动了
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1
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收起
- 赞我的今年账户翻十倍:
  没钱了
  2021-06-20
  回复
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- 云里梦里飞:
  可以借款
  2021-06-20
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反卡
·2021-06-20
噱头啊
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1
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收起
- 反卡:
  没意思
  2021-06-20
  回复
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- DYTW:
  任务
  2021-06-20
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them?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee62c44bab0326604e8a308e89c3e6ea","symbols_score_info":{"90022":0.9,"01024":0.9,"09618":0.9,"JD":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9},"content_text":"618谁在涌入，谁在躺平，谁在陪跑？\n\n3438亿，跟去年618总销售额2692亿元相比，京东今年618累计下单金额高出746亿。\n今年有4.4万中小商家首次参加天猫618，预售排行榜前100名爆款中，超过4成是新品。6月1日至16日，天猫品牌商家新增6000万会员，品牌店铺直播成交额比去年同期增长超100%。\n首次加入618大战的抖音也在6月19日发布战报，抖音618直播总时长2852万小时，平台内参与618大促的商家数量是去年同期的2.9倍。\n截止发稿，快手尚未官宣今年618的总体战报数据。\n火星文化CEO李浩在谈到今年618时说，“各个平台今年618在对外声势上，感觉都要平淡很多，商家发布618战报的发布频率似乎也小了一些，氛围不是那么浓厚。”\n的确，消费者经历过低价刺激和复杂规则的困惑后，对618开始显得有些疲态。\n但是，在这场漫长又内卷的购物节背后，商家平台都在绞尽脑汁寻求利益最大化，主播在直播间的狂欢里做着日进斗金的梦，消费者一边对又长又复杂的购物狂欢节麻木，一边跃跃欲试地薅羊毛。\n准备好枪支弹药后，一场大战慢慢展开，流量价格水涨船高，大品牌围绕流量厮杀蚕食，小品牌暗度陈仓，商家和平台或是博弈，或是共生，成为这场狂欢背后的隐线。\n征战618，平台大考\n诸侯征战618，面对电商行业格局重塑与更加漫长的周期，如何布局各个渠道实现最大收益，成为这次618的大考。\n抖音、快手携流量完成电商闭环，国内电商行业经过新一轮巨变后，抖音已超过国美和苏宁跻身五大电商平台。\n据飞瓜数据统计，618首日抖音直播GMV超14亿，4月和5月抖音带货GMV分别为337.2亿和412.19亿，日均GMV13.3亿。而快手从5月20日推进品质购物节，5月阶段GMV同比增233%。\n今年有4.4万中小商家首次参加天猫618。亿邦动力的调研数据显示，8成企业参与天猫促销，与去年持平，有接近半数企业参与了抖音促销活动，2成企业参与快手促销，都较去年同期有大幅度增长。\n即便天猫仍为主阵地，抖音、快手还是势不可挡。行业内一位代运营服务商提到，很多品牌都在涌进抖音开店。\n“我们这边大概有一半左右的一个公司，对抖音产生了一个明显的兴趣。主要是因为，获取流量的成本在变高。可以用一个非常时髦的词来说，就是一个内卷，没有新的流量池出来。这个情况下的话，品牌往往会选择站外的一个平台考虑。”\n伴随着激烈竞争，在竞争对手的带动下，很多品牌也不得不去拓展疆域。\n一位食品品牌商家在访谈中说道，“虽然，我们现在希望外部比如快手、抖音给我们带来一定的增长，但我们还是对天猫有很大的期望的。另外，很多时候就是竞品逼着我们去抖音快手做。一些竞品在天猫机会不大，反而在其他一些平台上发力比较厉害，我们也不得不去其他平台尝试。”\n另一方面，平台不断出台政策招兵买马，推行店铺自播、免费流量支持和运营成本的扣点减免等，让这场618背后的博弈和选择令人烟花缭乱。\n人们停留在“网上”的时长接近顶峰，对电商平台的购物场景和内容生产提出了多元化甚至融合的需求。今年618，逛逛、店铺自播、天猫榜单就成为商家和用户由种草到拔草的新款“三件套”。\n据天猫数据显示，品牌店铺直播成交额比去年同期增长超100%，成交超千万元的店铺直播间数量超去年同期两倍，尤其是九成新品牌均实现开播。“通过淘宝直播提高生意效率”得到了众多品牌商家的认可。\n包括欧莱雅、BabyCare、永璞等在内的30万品牌商家，选择在淘宝逛逛做消费种草。618开门红第一天，商家借助逛逛短视频等内容形式而引导的成交额，同比增长200%。\n各个平台开始大力推行商家店播，618期间，如苏宁易购的零售总裁侯恩龙、认养一头牛CEO孙仕军等行业大咖都进入直播间进行带货，总裁做主播已不罕见。小米旗舰店在3天内店播累计销售1.8亿元，稳居榜首，在大品牌通过雄厚资金实力拔得头筹，小品牌也尝试在夹缝求生。\n业内人士透露，目前店铺自播在店家收入占比仍然微小，投入成本却很大，很多中小品牌仍在徘徊。一家护肤品牌商家告诉Tech星球，618期间由于流量成本较高，投放的ROI较去年受到了一定影响，“618期间所有站外平台的流量都比日常高很多，所以我们避开618期间去跟大牌做直接投放PK，主要围绕我们的私域流量去做。”\n同时，购物节的周期愈发漫长，从5月24日8点开始预售，使得大部分商家最晚也要在五月初就对这场狂欢进行准备。\n新锐品牌们不得不全力投入。烘焙品牌“面包计划”，从5月初就开始准备给大促蓄水，在抖音平台不断进行短视频形式的种草，并且打通天猫和抖音用户数据。CMO顾磊感慨，每天只睡四五个小时，“通宵熬夜没变少，但早起的习惯养成了。不论多晚睡，每天最晚六点半起床，如果睡得早，可能五点就起来了，这点改变，连我自己都没想到。”\n商家的战场和消费者的注意力变得分散和碎片化，这在带来更多挑战，拉长的购物节战线，飞涨的流量价格，逐渐感到麻木的消费者，都在对这些摩拳擦掌的商家们提出挑战。\n“618流量太贵了，个别类目至少贵五六倍”\n618落幕。跟去年京东618总销售额2692亿元相比，今年京东618最终战报以累计下单金额超3438亿元再次刷新记录。\n久未发声的刘强东在618当天发布致股东信，京东投资控股的万物新生（爱回收）618当天上市，将618大促气氛烘托至最高潮。\n但天猫、拼多多、快手三家平台目前尚未披露618的GMV总体数据，各家似乎都在弱化销售额。天猫在6月18日凌晨第1小时公布了一组增长数据，天猫618成交额同比增长100%。\n品牌商家实时战报发布频率也在减少。不可否认的是，618正逐渐成为一个平台烘托气氛，商家品牌裹挟其中，消费者越来越“审美疲劳”的购物节。\n不少品牌商家向Tech星球吐槽道，流量越来越贵。一位前不久获得D轮融资的品牌商家称，他们对于618的策略就是，躺平，不凑热闹，“618流量越来越贵，反正相当于平时的2倍。”\n而另一位业内代运营负责人乔子则告诉Tech星球，不止2倍，有些热门品类流量甚至要贵5-6倍，“美妆赛道，特别是国产美妆个别类目，流量费至少贵5、6倍。”\n在乔子看来，618的流量主要集中在618开始的第一周。今年各大平台自5月24日便开始了618预售，大促开始的第一周，是各个品牌投放最疯狂的时间段。\n流量越来越贵，但并不能获得同等效果的ROI。\n一位零食类目头部商家告诉Tech星球，从投放预算上看，他们线上的推广成本每年涨幅都在10%以上。\n从UV成本上看，京东、天猫、拼多多三家大约是1：2：1.5，投放效果上天猫最好。\n该零食品牌商家称，各个投放工具的ROI不同，以直播间推流（信息流）的ROI来看，618期间ROI跟平时相比有所下滑，因为流量在变贵，但天猫ROI依然要比抖音高出50%以上。\n抖音端口，不同单品的ROI差异较大，较日常相比，流量获取成本加大，但因大促氛围加持，转化率较日常偏高，ROI略微降低。\n火星文化CEO李浩同样坦言，在投放效果上，618部分品类ROI有所下降。“可能是赛道竞争激烈，ROI有下降。我们没有做全品类，所以不能代表全盘数据。像食品、美妆个护是有下滑的。”\n李浩以某品牌为例，称该品牌上个月ROI在1：2左右，618大促期间反而降到了1：1.6，下滑20%左右。\n但整体而言，抖音的整体销量数据环比5月份有明显上涨，“我们服务的品牌平均都有1倍的涨幅。”\n在李浩看来，今年618，各大平台变得更实诚了，不再用复杂的规则套路用户；从参与者维度来看，今年没有“二选一”的霸王条款，品牌商家开始多平台布局；从各平台的参与力度看，拼多多声量变得稀少了，淘宝、京东依然活跃，抖音快手积极入场；从直播间的商品看：货的品牌和品质更重要了，低价不再是唯一销售驱动力。\n80%商家陪跑？\n“今年618，天猫在把资源往新品牌引，所以新品牌爆发挺快的”，在一位业内人士看来，天猫今年618重点依然是打造新品牌孵化器的用户心智。\n平台在今年618期间各有侧重，天猫更强调自己电商主阵地与新品牌孵化器的地位，天猫618预售排行榜前100名爆款中，超过4成是新品；抖音首次参战618大力推进自家的“抖音支付”；京东发布战报的频次最高；拼多多今年格外低调，只保留“百亿补贴”的营销。\n今年618依然是不少商家品牌鏖战的角斗场。天猫数据显示，今年天猫618期间，有25万品牌携带1300万商品参加，是历年来参与品牌最多的一次。\n据天猫公布的数据，按6月1日至15日的销售额统计，共有459个新品牌拿下细分类目TOP 1；相比去年天猫双11，有360个新品牌拿下第一。基于天猫新品创新中心（TMIC）的技术创新，品牌新品孵化周期平均从18个月降低至6个月。\n在欧莱雅北亚区兼中国消费者洞察总监Connie看来，天猫不只是电商平台，更是品牌商家的创新中台。这意味着，今年618新品牌爆发态势更为迅猛。\n譬如，小鹿蓝蓝作为三只松鼠在宝宝零辅食赛道孵化的新品牌，今年首次参加618，基于天猫全链路扶持，首日成交近400万，成为宝宝零食类目TOP1。\n同时，对于商家而言，今年是反垄断政策后的首个618，没有往年“二选一”的站队担忧，品牌商家开启以天猫为主阵地，抖音、快手、拼多多、小红书多渠道布局的策略。\n抖音似乎因此成为这次反垄断监管的最大赢家，禁止电商平台“二选一”后，流量焦虑的品牌们都愿意去短视频平台挖掘新增量。抖音6月19日发布的战报数据显示，抖音平台上参与618的商家数量是去年同期的2.9倍。\n三只松鼠方面告诉Tech星球，他们的渠道从天猫、京东横向拓展到了抖音、快手、拼多多、小红书等渠道。营销玩法上，加大了在站外如小红书、短视频平台的投放，站内深耕内容运营。\n商家不可避免成为平台争抢的对象。为了巩固自己品牌商家的基本盘，阿里最近几个月内对商家政策一再倾斜，譬如，将入驻天猫平台的费用大幅降低、流程缩短；将过去单独收费的工具免费提供给商户使用。\n京东同样削减了商户入驻费用，降低交易扣点。\n抖音倾斜力度更为明显，618期间，抖音全量商家给予15%-30%的补贴，并赠送运费险。6月6日-18日期间，商品价格小于等于30天内最低价，平台技术服务费率降至1%。\n作为上半年最大的促销节点，平台最大程度吸引留存商家，商家也对618格外重视。疯狂的流量交易中，自然涌现一批吃到红利的玩家。\n据一个女装类目新品牌商家的数据显示，该女装品牌15场GMV突破47万，其中第14场千川投放1465元，整场GMV 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