拜登大获全胜概率升高，将成为股市走牛理由_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

拜登大获全胜概率升高，将成为股市走牛理由

新浪财经2020-10-06

鉴于乔·拜登在民调中的领先优势不断扩大，加之特朗普因为感染该病毒而暂时搁置竞选活动，投资策略师们目前认为最终出现有争议的选举结果的可能性变得更小。花旗集团和摩根大通策略师表示，如果民主党取得压倒性胜利，可以避免长期、混乱的诉讼大战，为对选举风险惴惴不安的市场提供更多确定性。截至纽约时间上午9：32，标普500指数上涨约1%，对美债等避险资产的需求微乎其微，美元出现下跌。摩根大通表示拜登大选...

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烟嘴
·2020-10-06
拜登对股市不友善的，如果拜登要赢，股市一泻千里为敬
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潜力股
·2020-10-06
川普是股民支持川普[笑哭]
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金钱捕手黄
·2020-10-06
目前感觉拜登胜率高一点
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卡尔洋
·2020-10-06
放你妈的p
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看看叫
·2020-10-06
瞌睡乔如果上台，这股票就一泄千里了。现在这些记者都这么low吗
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- 专业割韭菜777:
  政治需要
  2020-10-06
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爱是付出
·2020-10-06
信口雌黄! 拜登明显被川普吊打，还在这里睁眼说瞎话。
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href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-10-05/doc-iivhuipp8133745.shtml><strong>新浪财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>鉴于乔·拜登在民调中的领先优势不断扩大，加之特朗普因为感染该病毒而暂时搁置竞选活动，投资策略师们目前认为最终出现有争议的选举结果的可能性变得更小。\n花旗集团和摩根大通策略师表示，如果民主党取得压倒性胜利，可以避免长期、混乱的诉讼大战，为对选举风险惴惴不安的市场提供更多确定性。\n截至纽约时间上午9：32，标普500指数上涨约1%，对美债等避险资产的需求微乎其微，美元出现下跌。\n摩根大通表示拜登大选...</p>\n\n<a 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“鉴于拜登在大多数民调中都处于领先地位，市场认为他胜选的可能性更大，最后出现势均力敌、有争议结果的可能性略有降低。”\n巴克莱策略师提到澳元/日元等货币对是风险偏好的代表。在上周的特朗普与拜登的辩论结束后，该汇率的一个月隐含波动率降至几周来最低。此后虽有所反弹，但仍低于200天平均水平。\nVIX期货的曲线显示出对选举的忧虑加剧，但关键月份前后的合约较周五有所下降。\n在对赢得大选颇为关键的几个州，拜登和特朗普的选情依然胶着。今年史无前例的邮寄选票数量意味着几个“战场州”不可能在选举日当晚宣布非正式确认的胜者。选举工作人员称，一些州可能要几天，甚至几周才能统计完所有选票。如果选举后举行法律诉讼，则确定最终结果的时间还会被进一步推迟。\n不过，鉴于波动率市场已经预期到未来几个月的选举风险，所以坏消息不一定能对市场产生震动效应。\n就与芝加哥期权交易所（CBOE）波动性指数挂钩的期货而言，未来三个月的合约价格均高于1月到期的合约价格，这表明投资者预计大选前后股市将出现更剧烈的波动。\n但是，上周末特朗普扑朔迷离的健康状况没有加深市场焦虑。涵盖选举日的10月合约在上周五上涨近5%之后， 周一下跌2%。\nPredictIt上预计拜登获胜的几率为64%，比特朗普宣布病毒检测为阳性的前一天的66%略有下降。野村控股和Wolfe Research编制的押注拜登胜选的多空策略指标自周四创下历史新高以来几乎没有变化。\n美国国债周一下跌，长期国债收益率收益率增长快于短期国债。5年和30年期收益率差扩大至近124基点，为一个多月来的最高水平。投资者削减避险头寸。\n\nEvercore ISI认为，这种信心加上持续的经济复苏将有助于支撑股市，甚至可能转化为对高风险股的轮动买盘。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":300306589,"gmtCreate":1601998499441,"gmtModify":1703825599064,"author":{"id":"3495719370120883","authorId":"3495719370120883","name":"烟嘴","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"拜登对股市不友善的，如果拜登要赢，股市一泻千里为敬","listText":"拜登对股市不友善的，如果拜登要赢，股市一泻千里为敬","text":"拜登对股市不友善的，如果拜登要赢，股市一泻千里为敬","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300306589","repostId":2073863668,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":300308484,"gmtCreate":1601998179448,"gmtModify":1703825598209,"author":{"id":"52693650069111","authorId":"52693650069111","name":"潜力股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b412bbf48c121c837ff372956e25ac2","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"川普是股民 支持川普[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"川普是股民 支持川普[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"川普是股民 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妈的p","listText":"放你 妈的p","text":"放你 妈的p","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300928814","repostId":2073863668,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":300046709,"gmtCreate":1601944474601,"gmtModify":1703825443834,"author":{"id":"3508576478748343","authorId":"3508576478748343","name":"看看叫","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"瞌睡乔如果上台，这股票就一泄千里了。现在这些记者都这么low吗","listText":"瞌睡乔如果上台，这股票就一泄千里了。现在这些记者都这么low吗","text":"瞌睡乔如果上台，这股票就一泄千里了。现在这些记者都这么low吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300046709","repostId":2073863668,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":2916018,"gmtCreate":1601967558662,"gmtModify":1601967558662,"authorId":3552518146403615,"author":{"id":3552518146403615,"authorId":3552518146403615,"name":"专业割韭菜777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/369f26c68c5702fbea68b3c77b760182","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":300046709,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"政治需要","text":"政治需要","html":"政治需要"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":300049589,"gmtCreate":1601941909541,"gmtModify":1703825438314,"author":{"id":"3563270363235900","authorId":"3563270363235900","name":"爱是付出","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0744bf2b16f361a1fca5dbedb057c90","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"信口雌黄! 拜登明显被川普吊打，还在这里睁眼说瞎话。","listText":"信口雌黄! 拜登明显被川普吊打，还在这里睁眼说瞎话。","text":"信口雌黄! 拜登明显被川普吊打，还在这里睁眼说瞎话。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300049589","repostId":2073863668,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}