多空一起爆！比特币在被谁操纵？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

多空一起爆！比特币在被谁操纵？

金十数据2020-05-12

5月12日，比特币将“分叉”，出块奖励将减半至6.25个。对于加密货币的局外人来说，这个消息不过是个每隔一段时间就会出现的“新奇事件”。但对于加密货币的局内人来说，减半可能会产生各种各样不可估量的后果。以刚刚过去的周末为例，比特币就上演了“暴力拉涨后高空跳水，空头爆完多头爆”的刺激戏码。针对这波异动发生的原因，主流分析认为，这是减半利好被提前兑现，巨鲸出逃引发连环抛售所致。有趣的是，市场上...

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清清棋坛
·2020-05-12
只能看热闹
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天天快乐起来
·2020-05-12
默默的看了看钱包的19个币
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奶牛奶牛
·2020-05-12
黑市上的主流币种，黑市份额有多大，币就有多贵
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好公司长期持有
·2020-05-12
不懂的不碰
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1
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铁伞怪侠
·2020-05-12
比特币就是一个骗局，所谓的抗通胀等等都是为了让它可以合法化，跟之前的各种庞氏骗局没有区别。有用的是低层的区块链技术
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3
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顺势而为知行合一
·2020-05-12
还是有无影手在操控
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Yoshian
·2020-05-12
這樣就爆，程度太低了
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夜风_3812
·2020-05-12
区块链骗局
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-05-12
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Santi小汤
·2020-05-12
比特币我倒觉得比造假的上市公司靠谱多了[捂脸]
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- 乐乐牛V:
  就是
  2020-06-02
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财运小七
·2020-05-12
1000美元的振幅不特么很正常的，好么[微笑]
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2
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背着男朋友炒股
·2020-05-12
这就是金融
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-05-12
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Who is Bitcoin being manipulated by?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb2f1bef956f70dffde6b3e4d54c27d0","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"5月12日，比特币将“分叉”，出块奖励将减半至6.25个。\n\n对于加密货币的局外人来说，这个消息不过是个每隔一段时间就会出现的“新奇事件”。但对于加密货币的局内人来说，减半可能会产生各种各样不可估量的后果。\n以刚刚过去的周末为例，比特币就上演了“暴力拉涨后高空跳水，空头爆完多头爆”的刺激戏码。针对这波异动发生的原因，主流分析认为，这是减半利好被提前兑现，巨鲸出逃引发连环抛售所致。\n有趣的是，市场上又悄悄产生了一种新的说法，或者说一种质疑——比特币这波“高空跳水”真的是意外？今天我们也来凑凑热闹，看一看哪种说法更符合你的猜测。\n01数百亿资金集体暴动，这两轮爆仓谁来背锅？\n在开始讲解这个惊险刺激的故事之前，我们先来补充一点关于“比特币”的背景知识。\n众所周知，所有的比特币最初都是来源于区块的出块奖励，所以挖矿的过程实际上也是比特币发行的过程。而很多圈外人不太清楚的是，根据规定，挖到新区块的矿工除了获得该区块中交易的手续费之外，还能获得一份出块奖励。\n这个区块奖励最开始设定的是50个币，在每挖出210000个区块后，出块奖励将会减半。以此来计算，首次比特币减半发生在2012年11月底，而下一场减半将在5月12日发生，届时每个区块的奖励将将从12.5枚降低到6.25枚。\n因此，减半不仅意味着挖矿的回报大幅下降，也意味着供应减少，比特币将变得更加稀缺，比特币行情往往能得到提振。在减半日前后，比特币交易量将大增，价格波动性也飙涨。\n当然，这一次也不例外。\n▶ 24小时内，比特币市值猛增350亿美元！\n5月8日早间8：00左右，比特币价格突飞猛涨，突破10000美元/枚，最高触及10074美元/枚， 这也是自2月24日以来的首次。在24小时内，加密货币的市值猛增了350亿美元，一举成为当时市场最热议的话题，Google搜索量增长了5000%以上。\n有分析表示，早在4月30日，比特币就涨势初现。从3月中始算的两个月的时间内，比特币价格已经上涨160%。在这场拉涨中，空头损失惨重。\n根据合约帝数据统计，截至8日中午12点的24小时内，超过13461人爆仓，涉及超2.3亿美元。\n▶ 狂赚变暴亏！比特币高台跳水近1000美元\n然而，好景不长，噩耗来得更加迅猛。\n5月10日早上，比特币从9559美元/枚的高位跳水，迅速下破9000美元大关，并在25分钟内暴跌逾14%。\n虚拟货币数据网站币coin的数据显示，截至5月10日晚上10：30的24小时内，市场上共有4.2万人爆仓，爆仓的金额达到8.34亿美元，折合人民币将近60亿。一家著名的交易所甚至因此一度陷入瘫痪。\n\n02都是巨鲸惹的祸？踩踏事故只是意外\n对于这场“暴动”，市场上的主流分析都将其当作是正常的价格波动。\n对于4月30日~5月8日的那波拉涨，分析表示，随着比特币区块奖励减半日的临近，无论是“矿工”，还是对冲基金等资本大头都向“新币”发起最后的冲刺，一是为了享受减半日前最后的“红利”，二是为了进场抄底，静候减半日带来的利好发酵。\n上述观点其实并不难理解，以以往两次“减半行情”为参考，比特币的价值往往都能得到提振。在2012年、2016年的减半事件中，比特币价格分别上涨了80倍和20倍。\n在这种背景下，周末那波暴跌行情就显得格外“怪异”了。\n对于比特币在周末的暴跌，一些分析师表示，这是因为比特币减半预期被提前兑现。\n期货日报指出，在第三次减半行情来临之前，比特币已经在两个月内出现了接近160%的涨幅。对于前期布局的投资者，减半正式实行之时便是利好预期兑现之时，在前期涨幅足够的情况下，甚至可以提前抛售。\n一些分析师甚至用有效市场假说来支持他们对比特币价格的预期。这些分析师认为，目前比特币已经提前消化了一半利好，减半日后的上涨行情或暂缓。著名的比特币巨鲸Joe007甚至直言，比特币的价格会在减半日后崩溃。\n03真的没有猫腻？这个市场有“前科”\n对于别的资产，市场或许能安心地接受上述说法。但是，对于比特币，对于这个操纵案“前科累累”的加密货币市场，没有谁敢断定其中一定没有猫腻。\n比特币市场的这一缺陷并不是什么新发现，其中最著名的一个案例发生在2017年末。\n在当时，比特币飙升至近2万美元的历史高点，随后研究显示，虚拟货币交易平台Bitfinex的部分用户通过“极端”的套索流动来操纵市场对比特币的需求。研究显示，在当时比特币上涨的时刻中，有一半都与Tether货币USDT的套利操纵存在关联。\n不仅如此，2019年初，比特币资产管理公司Bitwise为SEC创建的一份报告还显示，95%的比特币现货交易是虚假的。调查发现，比特币日均交易量约为60亿美元，但其中只有2.73亿美元是合法的。这个结论也佐证了为何受到监管的比特币期货价格会更稳定。\n当然，任何关于操纵的说法都很容易被归结成“阴谋论”，也有数据证明了今年以来矿工的活跃度不同寻常。\n截至上周五，该交易所比特币期货未平仓头寸创下近5亿美元的历史新高，其中近50%未平仓持仓量的增长来自其他交易和规模较小的不可报告账户，这表明流入该产品的不只是基金等大资本。\n但值得注意的是，在整个4月，Binance，Huobi，OKEx和BitMEX的交易额均超过500亿美元。这表明尽管今年矿工活跃度上升，但他们仍然是该领域中较小的参与者。\nTwo Prime的联合创始人Marc Fleury博士直言，许多人相信有效市场理论，该理论本质上是说，有关减半的所有信息都应该已经反映在价格中。但是，有效市场的理论可能并不适用于加密市场。Fleury表示，\n加密市场是出了名的非理性、不透明，而且容易被操纵。虽然矿工们也能推动价格上涨，但是只有少数大公司（包括大型矿商）拥有不对称的巨大影响力。\nCryptoQuant公司的首席信息官杨梅森也表示，如果比特币交易员希望规避交易风险，最重要的事情是监控鲸鱼和矿商是否在套现，而不是根据经验来预期短期的价格变化。\n\n无论“减半规则”造成了多少风波，不少人仍坚持认为，该规定就是比特币设计的精髓，也是比特币稀缺性溢价的集中体现。对此，中本聪也曾经说过：\n“在几十年之后，当区块奖励几乎消失，交易手续费将成为节点的主要收入来源。因此，我非常确信，在 20 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