• 86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating. Growing demand for cross-border stock investment in China and rising internet-based retail brokerage services globally together support strong industry fundamentals. TIGR, an early mover in the internet brokerage sector, significantly outperforms traditional brokers by providing better services for retail investors. Their price target of US$21 per ADS implies 83% upside potential from the latest market close price, despite possible sector-widevolatilityinChineseADRs.
• 86Research forecasts TIGR’s net revenues will reach US $668 mln in 2024, giving it a 4-yr CAGR of 51%. According to their projection, the number of customers with deposits on TIGR will reach 1.7 mln by the end of 2024. The total AUM and financing balance will exceed US$103 bln and US$5.5 bln, respectively. Trading volumes on TIGR are forecast to reach US$1,338 bln in 2024. 86Research expects the commission rate will remain largely flat. More derivatives trades will partially offset the negative impact from price competition. 86Research thinks the blended interest rate will decline due to the mix change of financing activities on the platform.
• 86Research derives their US$21 price target based on a 20x 2024E P/E multiple and 13% 2-yr discount rate. The PT implies 13.8x/11.7x/8.4x 2021E/2022E/2023E forward P/B multiples, reflecting a premium to global peers. HK license approval, progress in international expansion and US self-clearing are the key catalysts in the near term, while regulatory and macro uncertainties are the main investment risks. 86Research recommends investors buy the stock on recent pullbacks which have resulted from weak market sentiment. 86’s View on TIGR: BUY; PT$21/ADS; A Rising China-Based Internet Brokerage Platform; Global Expansion To Drive Long-term Growth; Recent pullbacks create a buying opportunity.
• 86Research is bullish on TIGR’s capability to continue to gain market share from traditional brokers. The strategic focus and operating efficiency of Internet companies give advantages to TIGR, such as lower pricing and better user experience in retail brokerage services. Moreover, TIGR provides more variety than most traditional brokers, enabling retail investors to trade securities in several markets in one app and one account.
• Non-commission revenues are ramping up quickly. Interest income will keep growing as more consolidated account (CA) account users will adopt self-funded financing services provided by TIGR. Their analysis suggests that the net interest spread of the financing services for CA account users was much higher than the rate of financing service for fully disclosed (FD) account users. In addition, the business development in investment banking and wealth management services are expected to contribute meaningful revenues.
• International expansion creates a new story. TIGR has ramped up its global expansion from 3Q20, mainly targeting Singapore and US markets. Singapore has more than 1 mln addressable individual investors, about half of the market size in HK. The US market has nearly 100 mln retail investors, with total assets of approximately $50 trillion. Although facing challenges in terms of culture, regulatory environment and competition, 86Research is positive that TIGR will capture more growth in its two promising markets.
• TIGR’s stock price has been volatile. 86Research recommends investors buy on the dip. Recent stock market volatility will impact its financial performance but won‘t change the long-term growth story, in their view. The company continues to gain market share in retail brokerage services and develop non-commission businesses, such as margin financing, wealth management, order flows, etc.86Research is confident such growth can offset the cyclical impact from a long-term perspective.
• HK license is a near-term catalyst. TIGR is expected to get a brokerage license in HK as soon as this year, which will enable it to run market campaigns and acquire users in the region. As a registered brokerage firm, TIGR can also build connections with banks to provide IPO subscriptions and financing services in Hong Kong and support the development of margin financing business.
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