都是缩减QE，这一次和八年前会有什么不同？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

都是缩减QE，这一次和八年前会有什么不同？

华尔街见闻2021-04-14

“劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康，但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。” 2013年4月，也就是QE4宣布退出的半年前，美国失业率刚刚从金融危机峰值下降到7.5%，黑人失业率则还高达13％。那时鲍威尔刚当上美联储理事不久，他在公开市场委员会会议上表示，“实现经济目标已取得实质性进展”，建议开始考虑减少购债。八年后的今天，失业率已经从疫情峰值下降到6%，就业市场健康状况也远好于当年（如黑人...

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Kenwong
·2021-04-15
😭
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点赞
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hihiday
·2021-04-15
[微笑] [开心] [财迷] [愤怒]
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1
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dwh790101
·2021-04-15
没啥不同
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1
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云里梦里飞
·2021-04-15
以前扭扭捏捏四万亿，现在日以继夜四十万亿[财迷] [开心]
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2
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- hihiday:
  放大水
  2021-04-15
  回复
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花喵喵
·2021-04-15
[龇牙]
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1
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hhyw
·2021-04-15
这次QE钱看起来很多，但是如果考虑通货其实还没2008年那么多😑😑
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2
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sgczhao
·2021-04-15
🧐🧐
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3
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银色蚂蚁
·2021-04-15
钱少
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5
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- hhyw:
  哈哈
  2021-04-15
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Danielssng
·2021-04-14
[财迷] 赞👍
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4
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adam888888
·2021-04-14
请问大家如果向老虎融资利息，50000美金，利息是每天算的吗？还是怎样算的？有谁知道吗？
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6
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- 尼克欢:
  同问，在网上只看到过年化利率，想问当天融当天还还算利息吗？
  2021-04-15
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Chloe_See
·2021-04-14
这一次大家的胃口比比以前大了
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4
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adam888888
·2021-04-14
上↑上↑上↑上↑
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2
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- aiorbits:
  [OK]
  2021-04-14
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What is the difference between this time and eight years ago?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4a2f480a6982dd3b0022df4a84728e9","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"“劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康，但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。”\n\n2013年4月，也就是QE4宣布退出的半年前，美国失业率刚刚从金融危机峰值下降到7.5%，黑人失业率则还高达13％。\n那时鲍威尔刚当上美联储理事不久，他在公开市场委员会会议上表示，“实现经济目标已取得实质性进展”，建议开始考虑减少购债。\n八年后的今天，失业率已经从疫情峰值下降到6%，就业市场健康状况也远好于当年（如黑人失业率降至9.6%），鲍威尔却觉得这还不够。\n上周的IMF春季会议线上研讨会上他指出，“复苏仍然不完整，不均衡”，将维持QE规模，直至实现通胀和就业目标“取得实质性的进一步进展”再考虑缩减。\n\n指数综合了反应就业市场健康状况的22个指标，显示当前健康状况好于2013年\n其中的态度转变表明，美联储如今把实现充分就业放在重中之重，并且对“充分就业”有了不同的理解。\n就业是重中之重\n在两个经济目标——稳定通胀率在平均2%水平和实现充分就业——何者为优先项上，美联储这次选择了后者，这是从2013年的经验中得来的方法论。\n2013年，美联储将通胀和失业率联系得十分紧密，他们认为失业率降到一定程度（4.5%）会触发物价水平急剧上升；则反过来，为了不让通胀失控，就应该在就业市场完全复苏前退出刺激。\n于是，当年失业率还在7%的时候，美联储就宣布减少购债，因为预计缩减QE后失业率还会继续下降，慢慢推升通胀回到2%目标位。\n但事实证明，通胀确实在升，却升得非常慢。失业率早已降到4.5%以下，但八年来，由于私营部门消费投资热情不足，通胀持续低于2%。\n路透分析师Howard Schneider评论，这可能让美联储认为，通胀总体上较弱，所以这次可以等待失业率下降到更低的水平，而不会有很大的通胀风险。\n根据美联储的预测，到年底，失业率将从目前的6％下降到4.5％，预计到今年夏天，每月将增加一百万就业人数。美国3月非农就业人口增加91.6万，远超预期，被认为是就业市场前景向好的一个证明。\n不过，许多分析师对这种做法持怀疑态度。美国3月CPI同比增长2.6%，创下2018年8月来最高水平，虽然部分是由于去年同期低基数效应，但供需缺口的扩大不容忽视。\n疫情造成美国下游消费品端大面积供应链断裂，目前尚未完全恢复，近期芯片短缺就是最明显的例子。需求端则确实在逐步抬头，汽油、食品、住房需求均明显改善，线下服务需求也处于复苏轨道。\nColumbia Threadneedle高级利率分析师Edward Al-Hussainy表示：\n\n 一场大规模的实验正在进行……我们正在让经济变得越来越热。疫情对供应端形成的约束并未完全解除，经济正在进行重新配置，我们不知道这将如何影响价格形成。\n\n何时“取得实质性进展”？\n那么对于就业市场，怎样才叫做复苏实现“完整”、“均衡”？\n鲍威尔IMF春季会议上给了个大致的定量说法：如果能像3月那样增加就业，“连续几个月”增加100万就业人口，“那样就真正开始显示，向着我们的目标有了进展”。\n但另外，美联储这次要在就业市场“健康”程度上好好画上一笔。\n3月一次美联储会议上，鲍威尔对美国社会经济不平等的状态表示担忧：\n\n 经济下滑并没有使得所有美国人受到相同的打击，本就最脆弱的那些人受到的打击最大。”\n\n目前，虽然美国就业市场在整体失业率、黑人失业率、女性失业率等多项指标上，表现都优于2013年退出QE时期，但在劳动参与率、长期失业人口占失业人口比重等方面仍不及当年。\n\nIndeed Hiring Lab经济研究主管Nick Bunker说表示，今天的美联储“对充分就业的构成有不同的看法”，“劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康，但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":344756006,"gmtCreate":1618445545105,"gmtModify":1634292925836,"author":{"id":"3559247438203174","authorId":"3559247438203174","name":"Kenwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b2d674a493c8d51713045ce00a3054","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"😭","listText":"😭","text":"😭","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344756006","repostId":1163247183,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":344723642,"gmtCreate":1618444791586,"gmtModify":1634292935999,"author":{"id":"3569812709036277","authorId":"3569812709036277","name":"hihiday","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/100a9eb174dc2a8741c70f9d335ae5e9","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[愤怒]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[愤怒]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] 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