Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?

seekingalpha2021-10-04

Summary Too many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus. The market has struck an important support region. As long as this ...

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191

JimiBCT
·2021-10-05
No..is not..
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1
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koolgal
·2021-10-05
Interesting technical analysis of the current market with an emphasis of severe market downturn. Yet despite all this, in every investor's heart, optimism is always there knowing that the Best is yet to come! 👍😊🎊🎉🎊
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36
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- Jccc:
  the Worse become the Best.
  2021-10-05
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- samliang82:
  😃
  2021-10-05
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- 滚股怪:
  Nice
  2021-10-05
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Michane
·2021-10-05
Thank u 4 sharing!Kind of pull me back a little on what's going on w Covid..definitely not end of world [捂脸] We'll come out safe 4 sure! Let's b our own rallies but b prepared for next investment[爱心]
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6
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Applemh1928
·2021-10-04
[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]
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1
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Bull_Lion
·2021-10-04
This guy is blowing his own trumpet 🎺
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1
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Uasbau
·2021-10-04
Like it
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2
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玉树临风英俊
·2021-10-04
👌
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1
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HENRYCSC
·2021-10-04
Tomorrow better
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1
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Ivanami
·2021-10-04
[LOL] [Grin] [LOL] [Grin] [LOL] [Grin]
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3
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TaiWoeiHaur
·2021-10-04
Good
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1
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DreamyLucid
·2021-10-04
Just get Powell to continue printing money. What could go wrong?
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5
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- Phyusin:
  Yes hoping for that
  2021-10-04
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babiboo
·2021-10-04
For reall
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3
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Jennifer58
·2021-10-04
Oh no
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7
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- Jennifer58:
  Will be better
  2021-10-04
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- HermanL:
  yup stay positive
  2021-10-04
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JerroldB
·2021-10-04
Great article!
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5
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- AndrewL:
  Yes
  2021-10-04
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- 玉树临风英俊:
  Ya
  2021-10-04
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SoarNRise
·2021-10-04
Ok
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4
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koolgal
·2021-10-04
Market sentiment is the key to setting the trends whether up or down. What we can do is hope for the best but prepare for the worst 👍😊
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24
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- 滚股怪:
  Like
  2021-10-04
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- Angelic84:
  👍🏻👍🏻
  2021-10-04
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- koolgal:
  Thanks 👍😊
  2021-10-05
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LYNETTELIM
·2021-10-04
Like
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3
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- 1521yes:
  like
  2021-10-04
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- Etet1985:
  ok
  2021-10-04
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Tck
·2021-10-04
[流泪]
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4
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- Tck:
  h
  2021-10-04
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Rara08
·2021-10-04
Wow
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5
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- LYNETTELIM:
  ok
  2021-10-04
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THB
·2021-10-04
[Cry]
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7
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- THB:
  一
  2021-10-04
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- Rara08:
  omg
  2021-10-04
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They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"\n\nThen, I saw the following response:\n\n\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"\n\nFolks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.\nYet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.\nThe main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.\nI have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:\nWith our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.\nI even saw one comment this past week that said:\n\n“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”\n\nThe question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.\nFirst, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.\nAnd, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:\n\n“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”\n\n\n“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”\n\nSecond, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.\nWhat they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.\nConsider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:\n\nThe historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?\n\nAnd, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?\nAs we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.\nMany months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.\nThe funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)\nAgain, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.\nFor many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.\nAt the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.\nIf we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.\nSo, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.\nHey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":820656587,"gmtCreate":1633391990649,"gmtModify":1633391990990,"author":{"id":"4095403554477670","authorId":"4095403554477670","authorIdStr":"4095403554477670","name":"JimiBCT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e002dd6adbc829c3389778cd5326957","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4095403554477670"},"htmlText":"No..is not..","listText":"No..is not..","text":"No..is not..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820656587","repostId":1139003361,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":820857703,"gmtCreate":1633385350037,"gmtModify":1633385350037,"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","authorIdStr":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559581955535845"},"htmlText":"Interesting technical analysis of the current market with an emphasis of severe market downturn.&nbsp; Yet despite all this, in every investor's heart, optimism is always there knowing that the Best is&nbsp; yet to come! 👍😊🎊🎉🎊","listText":"Interesting technical analysis of the current market with an emphasis of severe market downturn.&nbsp; Yet despite all this, in every investor's heart, optimism is always there knowing that the Best is&nbsp; yet to come! 👍😊🎊🎉🎊","text":"Interesting technical analysis of the current market with an emphasis of severe market downturn. 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What could go wrong?&nbsp;","listText":"Just get Powell to continue printing money. What could go wrong?&nbsp;","text":"Just get Powell to continue printing money. What could go wrong?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820301925","repostId":1139003361,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6090469,"gmtCreate":1633358013241,"gmtModify":1634722141687,"authorId":3584490239949882,"author":{"id":3584490239949882,"authorId":3584490239949882,"name":"Phyusin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73d7e61a3a910d1d25acb7dcee29f7ca","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":820301925,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes hoping for that","text":"Yes hoping for that","html":"Yes hoping for 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<u>better</u>"},{"id":6088677,"gmtCreate":1633347576388,"gmtModify":1634722287816,"authorId":3579133665869042,"author":{"id":3579133665869042,"authorId":3579133665869042,"name":"HermanL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/911af94955b2a045a3e286f6be961631","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":820945267,"type":1,"supId":6088608,"prevId":0,"content":"yup stay positive","text":"yup stay positive","html":"yup stay positive"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":820945672,"gmtCreate":1633346818708,"gmtModify":1633346818777,"author":{"id":"3579358422177975","authorId":"3579358422177975","authorIdStr":"3579358422177975","name":"JerroldB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f4f4a5fd4eb5c6fc8c5fd867023b77","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579358422177975"},"htmlText":"Great article!&nbsp;","listText":"Great article!&nbsp;","text":"Great 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