油价地平线下还有无尽地狱？沙特、特朗普有新动作了_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

油价地平线下还有无尽地狱？沙特、特朗普有新动作了

环球外汇网2020-04-21

本以为全球市场的投资者在2020年头三个月早已见惯了历史，将变得对任何事都波澜不惊。但万万没想到，今年的市场总能给人带来意想不到的惊变！毫无疑问，本周一将是历史性的一天！在冠状病毒疫情爆发以来金融市场所有剧烈、史无前例的动荡中，没有任何一种像周一原油期货的表现那样让人瞠目结舌——周二到期的5月西德克萨斯中质油(WTI)期货隔夜跌至负值区间，结算价为-37.63美元，也就是说，卖家要向购买其原油的...

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五月的风
·2020-04-21
还是少动观望一下为好，貌似没有到底呀
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Cedricly
·2020-04-21
活久见
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Yummy1101
·2020-04-21
值得抄底吗
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-04-21
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座山雕
·2020-04-21
抄底
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1
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- 座山雕:
  卖了就涨，今晚可能会见到10元以上。
  2020-05-18
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T20240815001
·2020-04-21
可见人家的市场是多么的自由
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1
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- 哆啦Ella:
  可惜加油不会倒贴
  2020-04-21
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- T20240815001:
  就是！ [开心]
  2020-04-21
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XYZ880
·2020-04-21
我感觉大部分买跌的是兔子的各大石油商的对冲基金[冷漠]
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devops
·2020-04-21
Flag: 06继续空，07不敢空
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亚洲股神买必赢
·2020-04-21
让暴风雨来的更猛烈一些吧，看好06归零[喷血]
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alien2005
·2020-04-21
原油又不牛奶，只要所有生产商，放假两个月，搞定！
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Saudi Arabia, Trump Has New Moves,","themeId":"2421f95da5484baabfa521f63a3ca359","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7880837823a645393fad91483dbe5c","symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9},"content_text":"本以为全球市场的投资者在2020年头三个月早已见惯了历史，将变得对任何事都波澜不惊。但万万没想到，今年的市场总能给人带来意想不到的惊变！毫无疑问，本周一将是历史性的一天！在冠状病毒疫情爆发以来金融市场所有剧烈、史无前例的动荡中，没有任何一种像周一原油期货的表现那样让人瞠目结舌——周二到期的5月西德克萨斯中质油(WTI)期货隔夜跌至负值区间，结算价为-37.63美元，也就是说，卖家要向购买其原油的买家付钱。就行情的罕见性而言，相比于负油价，此前几月的美股熔断如今看来都已变得“小巫见大巫”。甚至于在许多人的脑海中，此前都不敢想象某一类商品的价格会跌至负。而周一的油价行情却直白地告诉人们：“原来市场的地平线之下，真的还有无尽地狱”！活久见！油价史上首度收于负值截止收盘，5月美国原油合约暴跌55.9美元，结算价报每桶-37.63美元，跌幅达306%，盘中一度触及每桶负40.32美元的历史低点。周一金融市场发生的这一幕显然足以载入历史教科书。拥有40年交易经验的市场分析老兵Tom Kloza感叹称：“无论你是120岁，还是20个月，没有人见过这种负油价，我不知道该如何应对。”他是全球石油行业价格、新闻、分析和软件提供商Oil Price Information Service （OPIS）的全球能源分析负责人。在其他原油合约方面，5月19日到期的6月WTI合约下跌约15.7%，报每桶21.10美元。7月合约下跌约5%，报每桶28美元。国际基准6月合约的布伦特原油下跌8.8%，交投于每桶25.60美元。但远没有美国原油那么疲软。显然，油价的极端走势凸显出美国石油市场供过于求的严重程度。油价负数意味着将油运送到炼油厂或存储的成本已经超过了石油本身的价值。圣路易斯联储的数据显示，这是自1983年纽约商品交易所NYMEX原油期货上市以来，录得的最低原油期货价格。被抹去所有价值的WTI原油负价格，也打破了1946年WTI西德克斯轻质石油这个油品上市以来的每一个低点。负油价背后到底发生了什么？那么，这一切究竟是如何发生的呢？对此，市场人士提到了几点理由：首先，随着病毒大流行使经济陷入停滞，原油库存已经非常庞大，美国能源公司储存石油的空间已所剩无几。如果没有地方储存，那么没有人会想持有即将到期的原油合约。美国能源信息署(EIA)上周公布的数据显示，截至4月10日当周，美国原油库存（不包括战略石油储备）较此前一周增加1924.8万桶，美国原油库存变化值连续12周录得增长，涨幅续刷纪录新高。仅位于俄克拉何马州库欣（Cushing）的储油罐的储存量目前已达到69%，高于四周前的49%，美国储油设施迅速被填满。在这样的情况下，原油生产商只能通过削减未来数月的采油量并降低近月的原油价格，削减库存，降低生产成本。标普全球普氏能源资讯分析师Chris Midgley表示，库欣是内陆城市，原油库容很可能在3周内填满，一旦填满，WTI原油期货合约进行实物交割将更加困难。WTI原油期货价格暴跌，因交易员被迫平掉多头头寸，以免在没有库容的情况下购入实物原油。此外，需要注意的是，收于负值的只是5月美国原油合约，因为该合约周二就将到期。市场人士认为，油价此番反常下跌与WTI原油5月合约交割日的临近有关。对期货交易商来说，如果不平掉5月的多头合约，意味着将收到石油现货，而且只有几天时间告诉卖方如何收货，而此时库欣地区所有的原油仓库均已被预定，储油市场状况不佳，库存接近满负荷，如果强行交割造成的储油成本要远高于平仓的损失。根据芝商所消息，5月合约将在当地时间4月21日（北京时间22日凌晨02：30）进行交割。多数经纪商会在4月16日-20日展期。为了避免被强制平仓，部分交易者往往会提前平掉5月份的合约，重新建仓下6月的合约，造成5月份合约出现许多卖盘，价格大跌。一般而言，相邻月份的油价差价不会过大，但WTI5月原油期货和6月原油期货的差价一度超过每桶60美元。对于纯虚拟交易商来说，5月合约已经成了烫手山芋。此外，从宏观上讲，由于美国疫情形势依然严峻，经济活动并未恢复，原油需求仍然不足，各大油企购油欲望并不强烈。尽管一周前OPE＋达成了史无前例的减产协议，同意减产970万桶/日，但疫情造成的需求下降是减产幅度的两倍。最新研究数据显示，4月，全球原油需求将收缩约2900万桶/天，2020年全球石油需求将暴跌至创纪录的930万桶/日。两项数据对油价来说都是致命的打击。“几乎没有什么可以阻止现货市场在短期内进一步走下坡路，” RBC Capital Markets的全球能源战略董事总经理Michael Tran表示。“炼油企业正在以历史性的速度拒绝接收石油，随着美国的库存迅速升至极限，市场力量将造成进一步的痛苦，直到要么市场跌至谷底，要么冠状病毒清除，看起来前者会首先到来。”各方反应：沙特、特朗普有新动作了！据消息人士称，在原油价格转为负值后，沙特正在考虑尽快削减石油产量，而不是在5月份。而除了OPEC＋的减产行动以外，负责监管当地油气行业的得克萨斯州铁路委员会(Railway Commission Of Texas)也有可能在4月21日采取行动以限制原油产量。另外还有报道称，特朗普政府可能会提供进一步的激励措施，通过向生产商支付费用的方式来让其暂停石油开采活动。美国总统特朗普在最新讲话中称，美国将填补战略石油储备（SPR），将储备高达7500万桶石油。特朗普称，油价下跌是非常短时期的，负油价反映了金融方面的问题，“很大程度上与卖空者有关”，“是金融踩踏事件”，并非因为原油局势。但他承认全球需求已经暴跌，“因为全世界都很少人开车出行”。目前全球各大原油指标均已跌破成本价：在减产方面，特朗普指出，产油商需要采取更多措施。在被问及欧佩克＋是否将加大减产时，特朗普回答称：“我们已经这么做了。”他说，现在是购买原油的大好时机，正在研究将至多7500万桶石油纳入战略石油储备，“如果我们不用钱就能买到，我们会尽量买”，“我们希望国会能支持”。特朗普说：“油价现在处于一个对于很多人来说都非常有趣的水平......是很久以来的第一次，油价已经负数了，我们将以合适的价格买入。”特朗普还表示，将考虑有关停止进口沙特石油的意见，“我们现在的石油已经够多的了”。油市展望：6月合约未来也会跌至负值吗？由于五月份交割的WTI原油合约将于周二到期，不再是交投最活跃的合约，接下来6月合约的价格走向，无疑将成为油市接下来的最大悬念。对此，分析师普遍认为，WTI原油6月合约也可能复制5月合约的命运！摆在交易者面前的问题是，目前的6月主力合约将于5月19日到期。6月WTI原油期货合约能否避免暴跌仍然取决于产量、需求和库存问题。如果届时原油市场仍没有太大起色，持有该合约的交易者又将再度面临“高成本移仓”和“实物交割”二选一的困境。高盛警告称，油价暴跌是石油市场史无前例供给过剩导致出现的“症状”。5月WTI石油期货可能有“潜在的进一步麻烦”。接下来WTI石油6月合约将面临“下行压力”。澳新银行高级商品策略师Daniel Hynes预计，未来一个月左右，即月合约与现货的价差可能仍将承压。Rystad Energy的石油市场主管 Bjornar Tonhaugen评论称，全球供需失衡的问题已经开始真正反映到油价中。相比需求，产油还未受破坏，储存量与日俱增。RBC Capital全球首席商品策略分析师Helima Croft表示，“目前在海上还有许多炼厂根本不需要的原油，短期内看不到原油市场复苏的利好因素，我们对于后续的原油合约依旧抱有悲观的看法。”美银美林则评论称，美国原油尚需要几周时间来重新达到平衡，若需求不能回升，预计WTI原油6月份期货合约价格也将转负。而相比美国WTI原油，全球基准的布伦特原油目前的处境要相对略好。“周一价格之所以剧烈波动，是因为在实货市场疲软之际，它的功能受到炼油商程度空前的减产所破坏。”加皇资本市场称。“要明确的一点是，这是因为北美地区仓储爆满所致，并非全球性现象，我们估计全球陆上存储空间还有大约15亿桶。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":922804976,"gmtCreate":1587484438495,"gmtModify":1704364449083,"author":{"id":"3545537207182015","authorId":"3545537207182015","name":"五月的风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce4b32d77b760551be4f91466eee98d8","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95a0ce7a7fe8e0518b38aeef5c80667c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"还是少动观望一下为好，貌似没有到底呀","listText":"还是少动观望一下为好，貌似没有到底呀","text":"还是少动观望一下为好，貌似没有到底呀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/922804976","repostId":1137586228,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":922340295,"gmtCreate":1587461932517,"gmtModify":1704364265738,"author":{"id":"3457408958263546","authorId":"3457408958263546","name":"Cedricly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3a92cad08ddae1b238e5c6c190d62e","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"活久见","listText":"活久见","text":"活久见","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/922340295","repostId":1137586228,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":922366446,"gmtCreate":1587458010385,"gmtModify":1704364229355,"author":{"id":"3549330397622803","authorId":"3549330397622803","name":"Yummy1101","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"值得抄底吗","listText":"值得抄底吗","text":"值得抄底吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/922366446","repostId":1137586228,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":2362129,"gmtCreate":1587460357748,"gmtModify":1587460357748,"authorId":3527667803686145,"author":{"id":3527667803686145,"authorId":3527667803686145,"name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":922366446,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a 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