好书来了：基金经理都推荐的诺奖得主又出新作_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

好书来了：基金经理都推荐的诺奖得主又出新作

点拾投资2021-09-19

导读：很多年前，看过诺贝尔经济学奖得主，丹尼尔·卡尼曼的著作《思考，快与慢》。这本书对我个人的启发很大，帮助我做决策的思考，学会了慢决策的方式，而不是让本能的快思考蒙蔽自己的双眼。相信对心理学感兴趣的朋友，这本《思考，快与慢》都是必读。我访谈基金经理的时候，经常让他们推荐一本非金融的好书，许多人也是推荐这本书。前一段看到，卡尼曼的新书《噪声》已经在美国出版，本来想买一本原版书看看。没想到国内很快...

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139

浴缸潜水员
·2021-09-20
先把快与慢看了，才能明白人脑运作机制。[可爱]
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4
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CKsky
·2021-09-19
[思考] [正经]
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4
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您解释看看
·2021-09-19
[暗中观察]
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富發
·2021-09-19
书虫不会炒股票
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LawrenceCW
·2021-09-19
🔥
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1
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张世承
·2021-09-19
8
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张世承
·2021-09-19
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看
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href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZQ9wJlcOZUb2QU7yBiNstA\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZQ9wJlcOZUb2QU7yBiNstA","article_id":"1127155860","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/b26dd573a426403acd3cf0e50d7a53a2"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127155860","pubTimestamp":1632017518,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1570070086697","name":"点拾投资"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"读完之后，确实收获很大，也看到《噪声》已经上市了，推荐给各位朋友。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"A good book is coming: the Nobel Prize winners recommended by fund managers have produced new works","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caf38895ca49f0eaea172e5dbbf29f16","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"导读：很多年前，看过诺贝尔经济学奖得主，丹尼尔·卡尼曼的著作《思考，快与慢》。这本书对我个人的启发很大，帮助我做决策的思考，学会了慢决策的方式，而不是让本能的快思考蒙蔽自己的双眼。相信对心理学感兴趣的朋友，这本《思考，快与慢》都是必读。我访谈基金经理的时候，经常让他们推荐一本非金融的好书，许多人也是推荐这本书。\n前一段看到，卡尼曼的新书《噪声》已经在美国出版，本来想买一本原版书看看。没想到国内很快有了翻译。比较机缘巧合的是，之前翻译《征服市场的人》合作过的湛庐出版社，也是这本书的出版社，正好给了我一本预读本。\n读完之后，确实收获很大，也看到《噪声》已经上市了，推荐给各位朋友。\n噪声和偏差的区别\n首先，我们要区分，什么是偏差，什么是噪声，两者是完全不同的。我们举一个书中的例子，假设有4个射击队，来到射击场打靶。A队全部打中红心，没有任何偏差。B队全部偏离在目标外。C队有些击中了红心，有些偏离，没有规律可言。D队则是全部偏离，但又毫无规律可言。\n那么A队代表完美的决策，每一次决策的结果是正确的。B对代表偏差，每一次决策都是偏差的，而且向某个方向偏差（倾向性决策，比如说大靶全部偏离在右边）。C队代表噪声，每一次结果毫无可预测性。D队代表噪声和偏差的结合，既有一部分倾向性偏偏差，但又毫无规律可言。\n对于决策系统来说，最重要的是减少误差。偏差和噪声，一种是系统偏离，另一种是随机离散，是误差的不同组成部分。\n无处不在的噪声\n我们每天的生活中，几乎都会遇到各种类型的噪声，特别是在移动互联网时代，发声的途径和源头越来越多，打开微信朋友圈，几乎每天都能在各种自媒体看到噪声。而每一个决策系统中，也都有各种各样的噪声。比如说保险理赔、犯罪判罚、体育比赛中的裁判、工作面试等等。\n当然，投资中也伴随着大量的噪声。\n卡尼曼把噪声分为三类：1）程度噪声，有些法官对某类案件判决更加严厉；2）场景噪声，法官的判决会根据不同精神状况出现变化；3）模式噪声，法官的判决，基于不同的世界观而判罚不同。\n落实到投资中，也能看到这三类噪声：1）在同样的信息面前，有些人天生比其他人更乐观，有些人天生更热衷于交易，这就会产生程度噪声；2）当一个人的情绪对判断出现影响时，就会出现场景噪声；3）不同类型的人，对于什么是好公司，好生意的认知，都是不同的，这就是模式噪声。\n减少噪声的6个方式\n1）判断的目的在于准确性，而不在于个性化表达。判断是有一个狭义的定义，我们发现，许多人在判断一个事情的时候，是冲着个性化表达去的。遵循这一原则比较激进的方法，是是用规则或算法来代替判断，用算法做评估可以保证消除噪声，也是完全消除噪声的唯一方法。\n2）使用系统性思维，采用外部视角审视个案。当判断者将某个案例视为一系列相似案例中的一例，而不是看做特例时，就采用了外部视角。不是只关注当前案例的因果，外部视角有助于产生有价值的见解。\n3）对判断进行结构化，将其分解成几个独立的任务。这一点和Dalio的原则类似，把目标进行拆解，也能够减少过度一致性的问题。比如说，在结构化访谈中，访谈员只需要评估一个特征，每一次的评估做到独立。\n4）抵制不成熟的直接。决策者需要对他们的最终决策感到满意，并从直接的自信中获得回报感，但是他们不应该过早给予自己这种回报感。直接应该建立在一定的信息基础上，并且接受规则的约束以及适当的延迟处理。\n5）获取多位判断者的独立判断，然后再考虑汇总这些判断。比如说开会的时候，不应该让领导先发言，这样会影响其他人判断的独立性。\n6）用相对判断和相对量尺更好。相对判断的噪声要比绝对判断的小，因为我们在同一量尺上对多个对象进行归类的能力是有效的，但我们对众多对象进行两两比较的能力更胜一筹。比如说，评估一个公司绝对价格，比把两个公司放在一起评估谁更好，要难很多。\n减少噪声，看到真相\n为什么减少噪声那么重要？我认为通过减少噪声，能帮助我们更好看到真相，从而做出更优的决策。这就回到了许多书本讨论过的问题：人类大脑决策体系的缺陷。甚至可以上升到哲学和宗教层面，我们是不是看到了真相？\n对于我们来说，无论用哪个眼光看世界，更好的看到真相，一定对我们有利而无害。今天，信息不稀缺，但稀缺的是真相。通过训练我们的思维方式，减少噪声，是对移动互联网时代的生活，必不可少的工具箱。\n最后，也推荐这本书给所有人！","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":887706423,"gmtCreate":1632097292962,"gmtModify":1632097292962,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3532132223347993","authorIdStr":"3532132223347993"},"htmlText":"先把快与慢看了，才能明白人脑运作机制。[可爱]&nbsp;","listText":"先把快与慢看了，才能明白人脑运作机制。[可爱]&nbsp;","text":"先把快与慢看了，才能明白人脑运作机制。[可爱]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887706423","repostId":1127155860,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":887569444,"gmtCreate":1632065999388,"gmtModify":1632803051207,"author":{"id":"4087196552171780","authorId":"4087196552171780","name":"CKsky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4728e972eef44952da98966cfdfc721","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087196552171780","authorIdStr":"4087196552171780"},"htmlText":"[思考]&nbsp;[正经]&nbsp;","listText":"[思考]&nbsp;[正经]&nbsp;","text":"[思考] 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