市场对做空美元已经厌倦，美元多头将迎来高光时刻？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

市场对做空美元已经厌倦，美元多头将迎来高光时刻？

金十数据2021-07-28

未来的货币钟摆很可能开始向有利于美元的方向摆动。在做空美元16个月后，货币投机者似乎认输了。对世界上最大的储备货币来说，做空美元是否合适一直是一个有争议的问题。极端头寸通常是相反的信号，它揭示的更多是交易过度拥挤，而不是货币的走势方向。不出所料，对美元压倒性地做空成为了今年的“痛苦交易”之一。与世界第二大储备货币欧元，甚至世界上交易量最大的一篮子货币相比，美元自1月以来上涨了约3%。但...

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蚊香策士
·2021-07-29
可以買美元了
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晓MIIN
·2021-07-29
😊
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嘉豪9191
·2021-07-29
哦
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1
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Sen001
·2021-07-29
[财迷]
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4
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- Sen001:
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  2021-07-29
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WuJude
·2021-07-29
厌倦多空？就勇往直前！
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人类高质量油物
·2021-07-29
来吧
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sharonpinky
·2021-07-29
😊
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WayHong7687
·2021-07-28
Pls like
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href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/78639><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>未来的货币钟摆很可能开始向有利于美元的方向摆动。\n\n在做空美元16个月后，货币投机者似乎认输了。\n对世界上最大的储备货币来说，做空美元是否合适一直是一个有争议的问题。极端头寸通常是相反的信号，它揭示的更多是交易过度拥挤，而不是货币的走势方向。\n不出所料，对美元压倒性地做空成为了今年的“痛苦交易”之一。\n与世界第二大储备货币欧元，甚至世界上交易量最大的一篮子货币相比，美元自1月以来上涨了约3%。\n但...</p>\n\n<a 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Meggyesi和摩根大通外汇团队也认为欧元/美元将进一步下滑，并强调欧洲央行未来可能还会有更多鸽派立场，使“欧元成为类似日元的准永久性融资货币”。\n\n对欧元、美元有何启示？\n接下来，经济基本面或数据意外、海外风险偏好、长期公允价值模型和对冲基金资金流向都将对美元产生一定影响。\n但市场上存在着一种观点，即汇率往往会被过度定价，而且有大量的历史证据表明市场会从一个极端走向另一个极端。\n投机性头寸的完全波动不常发生，但仅在过去4年就发生了三次这种净多头和净空头之间的转换。 从一个极端到另一个极端平均需要16个月的时间，而现在离最近的净空头峰值只过去了6个月的时间。\n不过，最近几周，美国国债收益率大幅下滑，甚至一度回落至纪录低位，欧债走势也比较低迷，这与市场共识相悖。\n此前欧洲央行宣布新的2%的通胀目标，这意味着，欧洲央行更有可能增加而不是减少债券购买，因为中期通胀预测和市场预期仍比这一目标低约0.5个百分点。另外，市场预计，疲软的欧元可能有助于提升低迷的通胀预期。\n这将对欧元带来什么影响？\n欧洲央行经济学家去年末研究了，美联储和欧洲央行这两家央行量化宽松的步伐不同，在多大程度上影响了欧元/美元。\n他们得出的结论是，在疫情爆发后的6个月里，美联储的资产负债表比欧洲央行多扩大了16个百分点，欧元/美元上涨了6%，约占欧元/美元整体变动的三分之二。\n自那以后，这场资产负债表之战已趋于平衡。 在过去9个月里，欧洲央行的资产负债表扩张速度比美联储快了6个百分点，而汇率几乎没有变动。\n仅凭这一点，再加上未来相对的量化宽松速度，货币钟摆很可能开始向美元的方向摆动。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":801212640,"gmtCreate":1627518463580,"gmtModify":1633764246803,"author":{"id":"3556406286176182","authorId":"3556406286176182","name":"蚊香策士","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"可以買美元了","listText":"可以買美元了","text":"可以買美元了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801212640","repostId":1123886822,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":801634266,"gmtCreate":1627514293255,"gmtModify":1633764348710,"author":{"id":"3573767135380290","authorId":"3573767135380290","name":"晓MIIN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e223a6a40d05afa03fb58b646e13cd1","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"😊","listText":"😊","text":"😊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801634266","repostId":1123886822,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":801697801,"gmtCreate":1627513971203,"gmtModify":1631892139388,"author":{"id":"3575111006123483","authorId":"3575111006123483","name":"嘉豪9191","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18c923a17c09d8365f614d378b3a15b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"哦","listText":"哦","text":"哦","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801697801","repostId":1123886822,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":801852458,"gmtCreate":1627511648574,"gmtModify":1633764400054,"author":{"id":"3584077952141019","authorId":"3584077952141019","name":"Sen001","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af6443dc6111d144d09291a133ffcb94","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801852458","repostId":1123886822,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5361842,"gmtCreate":1627511671270,"gmtModify":1635219307707,"authorId":3584077952141019,"author":{"id":3584077952141019,"authorId":3584077952141019,"name":"Sen001","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af6443dc6111d144d09291a133ffcb94","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":801852458,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[财迷]","text":"[财迷]","html":"[财迷]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":801881814,"gmtCreate":1627508313938,"gmtModify":1633764430154,"author":{"id":"3559755292172737","authorId":"3559755292172737","name":"WuJude","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f6bc6c587f2b7cec20d1acdd07ee3b3","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"厌倦多空？就勇往直前！","listText":"厌倦多空？就勇往直前！","text":"厌倦多空？就勇往直前！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801881814","repostId":1123886822,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":801815424,"gmtCreate":1627507561468,"gmtModify":1633764435087,"author":{"id":"4089720580683890","authorId":"4089720580683890","name":"人类高质量油物","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669b09247839ff61ec1fdb2e7d168684","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"来吧","listText":"来吧","text":"来吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801815424","repostId":1123886822,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":801813522,"gmtCreate":1627506926266,"gmtModify":1631892323764,"author":{"id":"3584935957521156","authorId":"3584935957521156","name":"sharonpinky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e2357461749d7a258457c5acf2cd6d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"😊","listText":"😊","text":"😊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801813522","repostId":1123886822,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":801346413,"gmtCreate"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like&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like&nbsp;","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801346413","repostId":1123886822,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":107,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}