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fuboTV: The Netflix Of Live Sport And More

seekingalpha2021-04-14

Summary fuboTV has shown great growth and has ambitious plans to fuse its streaming platform with gaming and gambling. The company has made good strategic deals, including exclusive rights to the ...

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JASRICH
·2021-04-14
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nxw
·2021-04-14
Lai liao
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KylerLee
·2021-04-14
[财迷]
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(FUBO) is a streaming platform focused on live sports. The company has managed to increase revenue substantially and has nailed down some very interesting deals. There is a need in the market for a streaming service that gives sports fans access to a wide array of various live events and games, and fuboTV is feeling this niche nicely. Add to this the potential of bringing in gambling, which is already a highly profitable business, and fusing the experience with streaming, and we have the potential for amazing growth and profitability. With the stock at a 3-month low, I feel this is a great moment to start a position.\nThe Netflix of sports\nfuboTV is a relatively new company, but the performance we have seen so far from the company is impressive. According to the latest earnings call. In the last quarter, the company achieved over $100 million in revenues, which was a 98% increases YoY.\nfuboTV has two main lines of business: subscription, which now makes up 89% of revenues, and advertising, which grew at a whopping rate of 157%. It was a strong quarter which was favored by seasonality brought about by the start of many sports leagues.\nIn terms of the balance sheet, the company has $139 million in cash ($0.96/share), no long-term debt, and only 5.38% debt to equity. However, further financing will be needed as the company is still losing money, with the cost of revenues alone exceeding revenues.\nNow, these are important metrics for any company, but if we look at a specific metric of the streaming segment, we find some very encouraging stuff. The average fuboTV subscriber consumed 7.2 hours per day. Now, this is not to say that all fuboTV customers happen to be unemployed and have that sort of time on their hands. Rather, it represents the fact that the company owns a significant timeshare in households. But compare this to Netflix Inc. (NFLX) users, who spent an average of 3.2 hours in 2020. To top things off, the churn rate has decreased by 56 basis points YoY.\nAs a company that is growing mostly in its ad segment, this is encouraging, because it represents the possibility of much higher revenues without much more cost. This increase in engagement means that fuboTV can achieve much higher ARPU.\nThe key to fuboTV though, is that it is excelling at offering a much-needed service. Pay-Tv is on the way out, as evidenced by the fact that T-Mobile's (TMUS) TV segment was shut down. Cord-cutting has been a term used for a while, but when it comes to living sports, we are far behind. The demand for sporting events is so wide that there is a need for a one-stop-shop that can offer sports fans access to everything they want without the need for multiple subscriptions.\nTAM and Competition\nWe have seen some encouraging growth in the last quarter, but this is easy when you are comparing revenues to close to nothing. The real question is just how much potential market is out there, who is the key player, and what makes fuboTV better?\nAccording to Grand View Research, the global streaming market was valued at around $50 billion in 2020 and they expect that it could grow at a CAGR of 21% from 202 to 2028. Furthermore, the report notes that advancements in AI and Blockchain technology will be tailwinds for the sector.\nThere are a few key players in this space, which we could separate into two main types. One would be traditional cable companies, which are now offering streaming services, and the other would be more recently formed standalone streaming services. The table below compares fuboTV and its service to that of its main competitors.\nSource: cnet.com\nWe can see here how fuboTV stands against AT&T Inc. (T), Hulu, Sling TV and Alphabet's (GOOGL) Youtube TV. Pricing is quite competitive. Only SlingTV's basic plan is noticeably cheaper, though bear in mind it has more limited simultaneous streaming and no user profiles.\nOverall, these services are well-matched in terms of price and basic offering. However, fuboTV, to me, stands out for being more focused on sports, soccer, and now introducing gambling into its service, giving it a whole new market to tackle and a differentiated value proposition.\nfuboTV: Execution and Innovation\nIn this section, I will discuss what I think sets fuboTV apart from its competition. First and foremost, fuboTV was founded with soccer in mind, which I would call football. For some Americans, this may seem like a moot point, but to those who actually follow \"soccer\", you will know that it is perhaps the most viewed sport worldwide. This chart makes the point quite clearly.\nSource: Statista\nThis chart compares the average viewership of the World Cup Finals versus the Super Bowl. As we can see, the world cup brings in 3-4x more viewers worldwide. Europe, Latin America are big consumers of football, and Asia is now catching up too.\nGranted, the World Cup happens once every 4 years, but we have one upcoming in 2022 and guess who secured exclusive rights for the South American Football Confederation. While the press release is somewhat confusing, I understand this means that fuboTV has exclusive rights, at least in the U.S. to matches played by Latin American countries. Safe to say, that if Lionel Messi's Argentina makes the final, fuboTV could have a great quarter.\nOn the last note, I have to mention the potential that the gambling/gaming segment has. fuboTV recently acquired sports betting and interactive gaming company, Vigtory, to try to integrate both these verticals into their platform. The idea would be to start by offering free to play games, something perhaps like a fantasy league. Then on top of that, we have the possibility of running their sportsbook, which again would be seamlessly integrated with their streaming platform. One place to watch sports, interact with your friends, and gamble. According to some estimates, Sports Betting could grow by $134 billion from 2020 to 2024. This is huge, and I feel like fuboTV is one of the few companies that is trying to integrate streaming, gaming and betting.\nRisks\nInvesting in fuboTV is a gamble, (pun intended). This is a very new company in a highly competitive environment. Furthermore, betting is an incredibly regulated market, which makes expansion difficult. The biggest threat is perhaps that fuboTV will be pushed out by the larger corporations, who can pay more for exclusive rights. However, it is more likely that the company will get absorbed by competitors, which might be positive news for shareholders.\nOther than that, liquidity will be an issue, and I would expect further dilution in the future. Valuing fuboTV is hard because we don't know where profitability will land. This was a sore point with Netflix for ages, but it did finally overcome it. If fuboTV succeeds in melding streaming, gaming and betting into one platform, it could certainly achieve industry-leading margins thanks to the synergies in play.\nValuation\nSo how much is fuboTV worth? Revenue estimates have the company at 780.36 million in 2022, which I find more than reasonable given the catalyst of the World Cup. This would imply fuboTV would be achieving a Revenue/Share of over 17$, with the current 44.49 million shares outstanding. However, let's assume significant dilution is needed and double the shares. This would lead us to $8.7 in revenue per share, which using a 10-20 sales multiple would imply anywhere from $87-194. Even using the current P/S would imply a doubling of the price from today, but I would expect a multiple expansion once the new lines of business are integrated and the company is more mature.\nTo back this up, I will also use the \"infamous\" Elliot Wave Theory:\nSource: Author's work\nThis would be a possible count for a five-wave structure developing off the low struck in July 2019. The last run-up to $66.73 would be the top of wave 3, which reached the 178.6% extension. Given this, wave 4 could be bottoming now, at $21 or could make another stop at $15. The target for wave 5, could be anywhere between $91 and $223, though I think the 238.2% extension could be the most likely target.\nTakeaway\nWhen all is said and done, I like what fuboTV is trying to do and its long-term prospects. Perhaps I am somewhat biased, as I am a big football fan, so I will use the parameter set forth by EWT to manage risk here. Half a position at $21 and a half at $15 could be a good way to play this safe. While other EWT charts I've posted have given somewhat ambitious targets, I feel like $150-$200 is more than achievable for fuboTV in the next 2-3 years.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":344385039,"gmtCreate":1618375971721,"gmtModify":1634293365345,"author":{"id":"3574948385311046","authorId":"3574948385311046","name":"JASRICH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7ba205e3b289d35d298ed9ecc1aca5f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344385039","repostId":1117616486,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":344336507,"gmtCreate":1618374408709,"gmtModify":1634293383336,"author":{"id":"3555755639757611","authorId":"3555755639757611","name":"nxw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a3041e78835567c8db5934504534a17","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Lai liao","listText":"Lai liao","text":"Lai liao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344336507","repostId":1117616486,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":344979776,"gmtCreate":1618371701395,"gmtModify":1634293404828,"author":{"id":"3574746761625491","authorId":"3574746761625491","name":"KylerLee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6343877b4edfb9ffddbfde9273a3a1b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344979776","repostId":1117616486,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4031870,"gmtCreate":1618380536047,"gmtModify":1635739161234,"authorId":3575672525273340,"author":{"id":3575672525273340,"authorId":3575672525273340,"name":"314d0522","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":344979776,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}