Goldman Outlines Scenarios for Omicron’s Impact on Global Growth_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Goldman Outlines Scenarios for Omicron’s Impact on Global Growth

Bloomberg2021-11-29

Sees two downside scenarios, one ‘false alarm’ and one upside Too soon to change economic forecasts as impact still unclear Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists set out four scenarios for the ...

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This results in first-quarter global growth slowing to a 2% quarter-on-quarter annual rate, or roughly 2.5 percentage points below Goldman’s current forecast. For 2022 as a whole, the global economy still expands by 4.2%, or 0.4 percentage points below current forecast, while the inflation outlook is “ambiguous”\nSevere Downside: Both the disease severity and immunity against hospitalizations are substantially worse than for delta. Global economic growth takes a more substantial hit, while “the inflation impact is again ambiguous”\nFalse Alarm: Omicron spreads slower than delta and has no significant effect on global growth and inflation; and\nUpside: Omicron is slightly more transmissible, but causes much less severe disease. In this speculative “normalization” scenario, a net reduction in disease burden leaves global growth higher than Goldman’s baseline. 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