成吉思汗的个人主页 - 老虎社区

成吉思汗

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：0

15关注

0粉丝

0主题

0勋章

11-22

$黄金主连 2412(GCmain)$

11-21

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 这个大**，天天他妈的下跌

11-21

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 跌跌不休，阿里巴巴拉稀了

11-20

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 阿里巴巴是不是要倒闭了啊

11-19

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 阿里巴巴跌成狗屎💩

2023-09-20

$上证指数(000001.SH)$

2021-05-24

瞎说

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-13

别信，美股只会一直创新高

摩根士丹利：美股小盘股和周期股崩溃是早期信号重新开放和复苏没那么简单

2020-12-30

在线教育都是吹牛逼

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-06-23

继续暴涨，涨到你怀疑人生

美股已进入牛市第三阶段，重大风险已浮出水面

2020-06-02

砖家自己买不买啊

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"84892596252020","uuid":"84892596252020","gmtCreate":1487333949973,"gmtModify":1487333967788,"name":"成吉思汗","pinyin":"cjshchengjisihan","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":15,"tweetSize":11,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":900,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":1,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.08.11","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001}],"userBadgeCount":1,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"0","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":373759929213408,"gmtCreate":1732290449893,"gmtModify":1732290450700,"author":{"id":"84892596252020","authorId":"84892596252020","name":"成吉思汗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"84892596252020","authorIdStr":"84892596252020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连 2412(GCmain)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连 2412(GCmain)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$黄金主连 2412(GCmain)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373759929213408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":81,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373410929451456,"gmtCreate":1732204571253,"gmtModify":1732205285711,"author":{"id":"84892596252020","authorId":"84892596252020","name":"成吉思汗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"84892596252020","authorIdStr":"84892596252020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a>这个大**，天天他妈的下跌","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a>这个大**，天天他妈的下跌","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 这个大**，天天他妈的下跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373410929451456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":373160266387936,"gmtCreate":1732149166244,"gmtModify":1732149167624,"author":{"id":"84892596252020","authorId":"84892596252020","name":"成吉思汗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"84892596252020","authorIdStr":"84892596252020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a>跌跌不休，阿里巴巴拉稀了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a>跌跌不休，阿里巴巴拉稀了","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 跌跌不休，阿里巴巴拉稀了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373160266387936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":372782385119232,"gmtCreate":1732053958605,"gmtModify":1732053960528,"author":{"id":"84892596252020","authorId":"84892596252020","name":"成吉思汗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"84892596252020","authorIdStr":"84892596252020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a>阿里巴巴是不是要倒闭了啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a>阿里巴巴是不是要倒闭了啊","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 阿里巴巴是不是要倒闭了啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372782385119232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3480022123473953","authorId":"3480022123473953","name":"點石成金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13d21d88fa425f20c115872363cb90f5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3480022123473953","authorIdStr":"3480022123473953"},"content":"上周阻力大，短期没戏了","text":"上周阻力大，短期没戏了","html":"上周阻力大，短期没戏了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":372808805904648,"gmtCreate":1732027299094,"gmtModify":1732027332325,"author":{"id":"84892596252020","authorId":"84892596252020","name":"成吉思汗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"84892596252020","authorIdStr":"84892596252020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a>阿里巴巴跌成狗屎💩","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a>阿里巴巴跌成狗屎💩","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 阿里巴巴跌成狗屎💩","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372808805904648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3505789160534954","authorId":"3505789160534954","name":"新东方新希望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/723524038ef78bee4919ac5c0c0f2006","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3505789160534954","authorIdStr":"3505789160534954"},"content":"会跌到连🐶💩都不如[捂脸]","text":"会跌到连🐶💩都不如[捂脸]","html":"会跌到连🐶💩都不如[捂脸]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":221762273824856,"gmtCreate":1695177673284,"gmtModify":1695177673973,"author":{"id":"84892596252020","authorId":"84892596252020","name":"成吉思汗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"84892596252020","authorIdStr":"84892596252020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$ &nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$ &nbsp;</a>","text":"$上证指数(000001.SH)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/221762273824856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131546222,"gmtCreate":1621869696766,"gmtModify":1621869696766,"author":{"id":"84892596252020","authorId":"84892596252020","name":"成吉思汗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"84892596252020","authorIdStr":"84892596252020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"瞎说","listText":"瞎说","text":"瞎说","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131546222","repostId":"1127989948","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":345274292,"gmtCreate":1618321864116,"gmtModify":1618321864116,"author":{"id":"84892596252020","authorId":"84892596252020","name":"成吉思汗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"84892596252020","authorIdStr":"84892596252020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"别信，美股只会一直创新高","listText":"别信，美股只会一直创新高","text":"别信，美股只会一直创新高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345274292","repostId":"2126069667","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2126069667","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1618227105,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2126069667?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 19:31","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"摩根士丹利：美股小盘股和周期股崩溃是早期信号 重新开放和复苏没那么简单","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2126069667","media":"智通财经网","summary":"摩根士丹利发出警告，近期美股小型股的下跌是一个警告信号，暗示美国经济重新开放的难度将加大。","content":"<html><body><article> <p><strong>本文选自“华尔街见闻”</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>发出警告，近期美股小型股的下跌是一个警告信号，暗示美国经济重新开放的难度将加大。</p><p>摩根士丹利美国股票首席策略师Michael Wilson表示，过去几周标准普尔500指数继续创下历史新高。</p><p>但自3月12日见顶以来，代表小盘股的罗素2000指数的表现比标准普尔500指数差了8%。与此同时，部分周期性股票开始表现不佳，而防御类股的表现略好一些。IPO和SPAC指数同时双双下跌。</p><p>对于IPO和SPAC的指数表现不佳，Wilson认为这意味着美联储提供的过度流动性终于被供应所压倒。当新股发行表现如此糟糕时，表明股市将在更大范围内陷入困境。再加上金融体系中的杠杆率非常高，这可能会给风险更高、投机性更强的投资带来更多麻烦。</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3cf3d5a98d8e40ffac4fc61fbea19130.jpg\"/></p><p>Wilson警告，美股小盘股和周期性股的崩溃是一个潜在的早期预警信号，表明美国经济的实际重新开放将比预期更困难。市场低估了伴随经济复苏而来的执行风险和尚未反映在市场定价中的潜在意外事件。</p><p>Wilson认为，尽管美国政府及美联储等政策制定者通过货币宽松和财政刺激为经济提供了巨大支持，但疫情封锁在某些情况下破坏了供应。目前从材料、后勤支持到劳动力等方面都出现供应短缺的迹象。</p><p>在财报方面，Wilson表示，今年一季度财报季可能带来成本和利润方面的坏消息，尤其是与第二季度前景有关的消息。几周以来，公司的表现将分化，一些公司表现得很好，而另一些则相反。</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/287f711adef22d8a4a5a6d3a6cc6d6bb.jpg\"/></p><p>Wilson下调小型股的评级，同时建议投资者升级他们的投资组合，增加质量更高的股票。Wilson表示，过去一年复苏进程似乎比预期更快，这意味着经济可能会更早地从早期周期转向中期周期，而高质量股票应该会受益。</p><p>（智通财经编辑：秦志洲）</p> </article></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>摩根士丹利：美股小盘股和周期股崩溃是早期信号 重新开放和复苏没那么简单</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n摩根士丹利：美股小盘股和周期股崩溃是早期信号 重新开放和复苏没那么简单\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-12 19:31 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/447121.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本文选自“华尔街见闻”摩根士丹利发出警告，近期美股小型股的下跌是一个警告信号，暗示美国经济重新开放的难度将加大。摩根士丹利美国股票首席策略师Michael Wilson表示，过去几周标准普尔500指数继续创下历史新高。但自3月12日见顶以来，代表小盘股的罗素2000指数的表现比标准普尔500指数差了8%。与此同时，部分周期性股票开始表现不佳，而防御类股的表现略好一些。IPO和SPAC指数同时双双...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/447121.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210412/20210412193201_43869.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/447121.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2126069667","content_text":"本文选自“华尔街见闻”摩根士丹利发出警告，近期美股小型股的下跌是一个警告信号，暗示美国经济重新开放的难度将加大。摩根士丹利美国股票首席策略师Michael Wilson表示，过去几周标准普尔500指数继续创下历史新高。但自3月12日见顶以来，代表小盘股的罗素2000指数的表现比标准普尔500指数差了8%。与此同时，部分周期性股票开始表现不佳，而防御类股的表现略好一些。IPO和SPAC指数同时双双下跌。对于IPO和SPAC的指数表现不佳，Wilson认为这意味着美联储提供的过度流动性终于被供应所压倒。当新股发行表现如此糟糕时，表明股市将在更大范围内陷入困境。再加上金融体系中的杠杆率非常高，这可能会给风险更高、投机性更强的投资带来更多麻烦。Wilson警告，美股小盘股和周期性股的崩溃是一个潜在的早期预警信号，表明美国经济的实际重新开放将比预期更困难。市场低估了伴随经济复苏而来的执行风险和尚未反映在市场定价中的潜在意外事件。Wilson认为，尽管美国政府及美联储等政策制定者通过货币宽松和财政刺激为经济提供了巨大支持，但疫情封锁在某些情况下破坏了供应。目前从材料、后勤支持到劳动力等方面都出现供应短缺的迹象。在财报方面，Wilson表示，今年一季度财报季可能带来成本和利润方面的坏消息，尤其是与第二季度前景有关的消息。几周以来，公司的表现将分化，一些公司表现得很好，而另一些则相反。Wilson下调小型股的评级，同时建议投资者升级他们的投资组合，增加质量更高的股票。Wilson表示，过去一年复苏进程似乎比预期更快，这意味着经济可能会更早地从早期周期转向中期周期，而高质量股票应该会受益。（智通财经编辑：秦志洲）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":333275764,"gmtCreate":1609301735758,"gmtModify":1703738676964,"author":{"id":"84892596252020","authorId":"84892596252020","name":"成吉思汗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"84892596252020","authorIdStr":"84892596252020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"在线教育都是吹牛逼","listText":"在线教育都是吹牛逼","text":"在线教育都是吹牛逼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333275764","repostId":"1131692167","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":954283726,"gmtCreate":1592927502665,"gmtModify":1704200670599,"author":{"id":"84892596252020","authorId":"84892596252020","name":"成吉思汗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"84892596252020","authorIdStr":"84892596252020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"继续暴涨，涨到你怀疑人生","listText":"继续暴涨，涨到你怀疑人生","text":"继续暴涨，涨到你怀疑人生","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/954283726","repostId":"1190450302","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1190450302","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1592878303,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190450302?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-06-23 10:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股已进入牛市第三阶段，重大风险已浮出水面","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190450302","media":"人民币交易与研究","summary":"橡树资本掌门人霍华德•马斯克18日发布了最新备忘录《剖析本轮涨势》(The Anatomy of a Rally)，对今年美股异乎寻常的强劲涨势及其影响进行深入分析。他先分析了推动这股涨势的正面因素，","content":"<blockquote>\n <span>橡树资本掌门人霍华德•马斯克18日发布了最新备忘录《剖析本轮涨势》(The Anatomy of a Rally)，对今年美股异乎寻常的强劲涨势及其影响进行深入分析。他先分析了推动这股涨势的正面因素，但指出市场同时还存在负面因素，而重要的是看看投资者关注的是哪些因素，然后他套用自己一直信奉的牛市三阶段理论来分析这波涨势，认为市场或许过于关注正面因素，并指出了几个能够帮助投资者评估市场上涨和资产价格是否合理的问题。</span>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f26dbfcce1751760f5585ba254160c30\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"544\"></p>\n<p><span>马斯克一开始回顾了今年标普500指数的令人叹为观止的涨势，以及投资者对此而产生的疑问，并梳理这些问题道：“全球都在应对这场百年来规模最大的疫情和80多年来最严重的经济萎缩。本应作为衡量当前经济状况和未来经济晴雨表指标的美国股市却创纪录上涨，并几乎拿下通常在经济坚挺且前景乐观时才会创下的纪录高位。与此同时，疫情风险却并未反映出来。这是为什么呢？”</span></p>\n<p><span>马斯克表示，推动市场反弹的潜在因素众多，而且在他撰写这篇备忘录时还在不断增加，他先指出了一些显而易见的理由：</span></p>\n<p><span>• 投资者非常相信美联储和财政部实现经济复苏的能力......大家都清楚复苏将是渐进的，甚至是曲折的--如今鲜少有人还在谈论经济出现V型强势复苏的可能；</span></p>\n<p><span>• 在市场反弹站稳脚跟之际，新冠肺炎确诊病例和死亡病例数据开始改善......大多数地区的感染曲线明显保持平缓；</span></p>\n<p><span>• 乐观的经济数据强化了这一结论。考虑到本季度经济前所未有的下滑，未来三季经济可能录得可观的环比增幅，并在2021年中创下强劲的同比增长；</span></p>\n<p><span>• 投资者喜欢乐观地展望未来形势改善。今年国内生产总值(GDP)和公司盈利将大幅下滑，但投资者开始期待未来--或许是2022年--标普500指数的全年盈利将超过2019年水平和此前预期的2020年水平；</span></p>\n<p><span>• 对于经济和企业发展，投资者的结论是“都很好”，或者至少是在迈向正轨。</span></p>\n<p><span>• ......</span></p>\n<p><span>其次，他指出货币和财政措施对于此次市场反弹功不可没，譬如“在3月23日当周，‘你无法与美联储对抗的声音’就不绝于耳。显然，各种证据使投资者坚信，利率将保持在美联储希望的水平，而市场也将按照美联储的期望发展。市场越是上涨，相信维持市场上涨就是美联储目标、联储也有能力这么做的人就越多”，同时指出行为因素也产生了相当大的影响，比如说“指数基金、交易所交易基金(ETF)等被动投资实体在目前市场交易量中的占比很大，一旦他们被调动起来，就很可能促使这些趋势延续”。</span></p>\n<p><span>但他也提醒道，另一方面市场也存在负面因素，例如“我们可能无法像预期那样很快获得疫苗”，“如果复工进展缓慢、大批小企业就此倒闭、数百万工作岗位永久性丧失，经济复苏将受到的影响”，以及“零售和旅游、写字楼和高密度城市中心的商业模式可能出现的永久性变化的影响”等。</span></p>\n<p><span>马克斯表示，市场上总是既有正面因素，又有负面因素，而在特定时间点上确定市场行为时，最重要的考虑因素是，投资者最看重哪些市场因素。</span></p>\n<blockquote>\n <span>如果有一种直接、可靠和普遍接受的方法可为证券适当定价，那么(a)证券可能将以这些价格或接近这些价格的水平出售；而且(b)市场就不会达到过于乐观的峰值和过度悲观的低谷。但当人们认为事情进展顺利时，总是会出现市场人士大多乐观的心理，而这会增强和夸大正面因素；而当事情进展不顺时，市场人士就会大多感到沮丧，从而使负面因素变得复杂。这就保证了市场的极端高位和低位总是周期最终的结果，而没有例外。</span>\n</blockquote>\n<p><span>对于市场在不到五周内就从纪录高位蹉跌34%至危机低位，之后又仅用11周时间就反弹45%至6月8日的高位，马克斯援引了其在《投资心理学》（2016年1月）备忘录中的话：“令人匪夷所思的事情之一是：在现实世界中，事情一般都在“相当好”与“没那么好”之间摇摆。而在投资界，人们的看法却通常在“完美”与“绝望”之间波动。”</span></p>\n<p><span>他并强调，“我们所面临的挑战是要弄清楚哪些行为是合理的，以及哪些是反常的。”</span></p>\n<p><span>最后，马克斯在总结这个问题时，选择引用他经常会提到的一位经验丰富投资者在上世纪70年代中期与其分享的一条格言，并称其绝对准确、可以完全反映现实情况：</span></p>\n<blockquote>\n <span>牛市的三个阶段：</span>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <span>•&nbsp;第一阶段，只有少数特别有洞见的人预见到市场形势可能将改善；</span>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <span>•&nbsp;第二阶段，大多数投资者意识到市场形势正在改善；</span>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <span>•&nbsp;第三阶段，所有人都认为市场将不断改善。</span>\n</blockquote>\n<p><span>然后，他将今年市场这波异乎寻常的走势与这三个阶段对应起来，指出3月中旬出现了第一阶段，并在3月23日达到高峰。之后市场迅速经历了第二阶段并直接进入第三阶段。</span></p>\n<p><span>“显然，在6月8日达到中期高位时，看起来好像投资者在评估市场时只是聚焦正面因素，而忽视负面因素。不过，这只是我个人的价值判断。我只是认为，投资者的关注点失衡，过分关注正面因素而不加怀疑。”</span></p>\n<p><span>马克斯表示，虽然人们无法完全确定涨势是适当的还是非理性的，亦无法确定市场点位过高还是过低，但人们可以问自己几个问题：</span></p>\n<blockquote>\n <span>•&nbsp;投资者是否在冷静地评估正面和负面因素？</span>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <span>•&nbsp;推动市场走势的正面因素被证明合理的可能性有多大（或者说负面因素的影响力是否会增加）？</span>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <span>•&nbsp;正面因素是基本面的(基于价值)、还是基本上是技术面的--与资金流入(即现金驱动)有关？如果是后者，那么其所产生的利好影响可能是暂时的还是永久的？</span>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <span>•&nbsp;市场是否受到狂热的乐观情绪提振？</span>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <span>•&nbsp;这种乐观情绪是否在使投资者对合理的相反观点视而不见？</span>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <span>•&nbsp;基于盈利、营收和资产价值等因素的估值如何与历史标准结合？</span>\n</blockquote>\n<p><span>他指出，虽然这些问题无法表明市场上涨和当前资产价格是否合理，但却能帮助人们进行相关评估。</span></p>\n<p><span>“它们让我得出这样的结论，即当前的强劲涨势建立在乐观情绪之上；市场已经消化了正面预期，而忽视了潜在的负面因素；美联储注入的流动性和美国财政部的刺激政策一直是主要的驱动因素，而且投资者认为这些措施将帮助经济实现根本性复苏，并且免受极其不利的第二阶段后果影响，”马斯克称。“在我看来，市场未来因形势好于预期或估值持续增长而进一步上涨的潜力，无法盖过形势逊于预期或估值萎缩所带来的下跌风险。”</span></p>\n<p><span>“换句话说，基本面前景或许整体偏向正面，但考虑到上市证券目前的价格水平，投资者可能没有胜算。”</span></p>","source":"lsy1574157197600","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股已进入牛市第三阶段，重大风险已浮出水面</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股已进入牛市第三阶段，重大风险已浮出水面\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-23 10:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/QqRZTo_ku9w8tDlqbtnV7A><strong>人民币交易与研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>橡树资本掌门人霍华德•马斯克18日发布了最新备忘录《剖析本轮涨势》(The Anatomy of a Rally)，对今年美股异乎寻常的强劲涨势及其影响进行深入分析。他先分析了推动这股涨势的正面因素，但指出市场同时还存在负面因素，而重要的是看看投资者关注的是哪些因素，然后他套用自己一直信奉的牛市三阶段理论来分析这波涨势，认为市场或许过于关注正面因素，并指出了几个能够帮助投资者评估市场上涨和资产价格...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/QqRZTo_ku9w8tDlqbtnV7A\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3219c1e34771d4a607fc67aee82f7281","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/QqRZTo_ku9w8tDlqbtnV7A","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190450302","content_text":"橡树资本掌门人霍华德•马斯克18日发布了最新备忘录《剖析本轮涨势》(The Anatomy of a Rally)，对今年美股异乎寻常的强劲涨势及其影响进行深入分析。他先分析了推动这股涨势的正面因素，但指出市场同时还存在负面因素，而重要的是看看投资者关注的是哪些因素，然后他套用自己一直信奉的牛市三阶段理论来分析这波涨势，认为市场或许过于关注正面因素，并指出了几个能够帮助投资者评估市场上涨和资产价格是否合理的问题。\n\n\n马斯克一开始回顾了今年标普500指数的令人叹为观止的涨势，以及投资者对此而产生的疑问，并梳理这些问题道：“全球都在应对这场百年来规模最大的疫情和80多年来最严重的经济萎缩。本应作为衡量当前经济状况和未来经济晴雨表指标的美国股市却创纪录上涨，并几乎拿下通常在经济坚挺且前景乐观时才会创下的纪录高位。与此同时，疫情风险却并未反映出来。这是为什么呢？”\n马斯克表示，推动市场反弹的潜在因素众多，而且在他撰写这篇备忘录时还在不断增加，他先指出了一些显而易见的理由：\n• 投资者非常相信美联储和财政部实现经济复苏的能力......大家都清楚复苏将是渐进的，甚至是曲折的--如今鲜少有人还在谈论经济出现V型强势复苏的可能；\n• 在市场反弹站稳脚跟之际，新冠肺炎确诊病例和死亡病例数据开始改善......大多数地区的感染曲线明显保持平缓；\n• 乐观的经济数据强化了这一结论。考虑到本季度经济前所未有的下滑，未来三季经济可能录得可观的环比增幅，并在2021年中创下强劲的同比增长；\n• 投资者喜欢乐观地展望未来形势改善。今年国内生产总值(GDP)和公司盈利将大幅下滑，但投资者开始期待未来--或许是2022年--标普500指数的全年盈利将超过2019年水平和此前预期的2020年水平；\n• 对于经济和企业发展，投资者的结论是“都很好”，或者至少是在迈向正轨。\n• ......\n其次，他指出货币和财政措施对于此次市场反弹功不可没，譬如“在3月23日当周，‘你无法与美联储对抗的声音’就不绝于耳。显然，各种证据使投资者坚信，利率将保持在美联储希望的水平，而市场也将按照美联储的期望发展。市场越是上涨，相信维持市场上涨就是美联储目标、联储也有能力这么做的人就越多”，同时指出行为因素也产生了相当大的影响，比如说“指数基金、交易所交易基金(ETF)等被动投资实体在目前市场交易量中的占比很大，一旦他们被调动起来，就很可能促使这些趋势延续”。\n但他也提醒道，另一方面市场也存在负面因素，例如“我们可能无法像预期那样很快获得疫苗”，“如果复工进展缓慢、大批小企业就此倒闭、数百万工作岗位永久性丧失，经济复苏将受到的影响”，以及“零售和旅游、写字楼和高密度城市中心的商业模式可能出现的永久性变化的影响”等。\n马克斯表示，市场上总是既有正面因素，又有负面因素，而在特定时间点上确定市场行为时，最重要的考虑因素是，投资者最看重哪些市场因素。\n\n如果有一种直接、可靠和普遍接受的方法可为证券适当定价，那么(a)证券可能将以这些价格或接近这些价格的水平出售；而且(b)市场就不会达到过于乐观的峰值和过度悲观的低谷。但当人们认为事情进展顺利时，总是会出现市场人士大多乐观的心理，而这会增强和夸大正面因素；而当事情进展不顺时，市场人士就会大多感到沮丧，从而使负面因素变得复杂。这就保证了市场的极端高位和低位总是周期最终的结果，而没有例外。\n\n对于市场在不到五周内就从纪录高位蹉跌34%至危机低位，之后又仅用11周时间就反弹45%至6月8日的高位，马克斯援引了其在《投资心理学》（2016年1月）备忘录中的话：“令人匪夷所思的事情之一是：在现实世界中，事情一般都在“相当好”与“没那么好”之间摇摆。而在投资界，人们的看法却通常在“完美”与“绝望”之间波动。”\n他并强调，“我们所面临的挑战是要弄清楚哪些行为是合理的，以及哪些是反常的。”\n最后，马克斯在总结这个问题时，选择引用他经常会提到的一位经验丰富投资者在上世纪70年代中期与其分享的一条格言，并称其绝对准确、可以完全反映现实情况：\n\n牛市的三个阶段：\n\n\n• 第一阶段，只有少数特别有洞见的人预见到市场形势可能将改善；\n\n\n• 第二阶段，大多数投资者意识到市场形势正在改善；\n\n\n• 第三阶段，所有人都认为市场将不断改善。\n\n然后，他将今年市场这波异乎寻常的走势与这三个阶段对应起来，指出3月中旬出现了第一阶段，并在3月23日达到高峰。之后市场迅速经历了第二阶段并直接进入第三阶段。\n“显然，在6月8日达到中期高位时，看起来好像投资者在评估市场时只是聚焦正面因素，而忽视负面因素。不过，这只是我个人的价值判断。我只是认为，投资者的关注点失衡，过分关注正面因素而不加怀疑。”\n马克斯表示，虽然人们无法完全确定涨势是适当的还是非理性的，亦无法确定市场点位过高还是过低，但人们可以问自己几个问题：\n\n• 投资者是否在冷静地评估正面和负面因素？\n\n\n• 推动市场走势的正面因素被证明合理的可能性有多大（或者说负面因素的影响力是否会增加）？\n\n\n• 正面因素是基本面的(基于价值)、还是基本上是技术面的--与资金流入(即现金驱动)有关？如果是后者，那么其所产生的利好影响可能是暂时的还是永久的？\n\n\n• 市场是否受到狂热的乐观情绪提振？\n\n\n• 这种乐观情绪是否在使投资者对合理的相反观点视而不见？\n\n\n• 基于盈利、营收和资产价值等因素的估值如何与历史标准结合？\n\n他指出，虽然这些问题无法表明市场上涨和当前资产价格是否合理，但却能帮助人们进行相关评估。\n“它们让我得出这样的结论，即当前的强劲涨势建立在乐观情绪之上；市场已经消化了正面预期，而忽视了潜在的负面因素；美联储注入的流动性和美国财政部的刺激政策一直是主要的驱动因素，而且投资者认为这些措施将帮助经济实现根本性复苏，并且免受极其不利的第二阶段后果影响，”马斯克称。“在我看来，市场未来因形势好于预期或估值持续增长而进一步上涨的潜力，无法盖过形势逊于预期或估值萎缩所带来的下跌风险。”\n“换句话说，基本面前景或许整体偏向正面，但考虑到上市证券目前的价格水平，投资者可能没有胜算。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":951750463,"gmtCreate":1591074427852,"gmtModify":1704194246915,"author":{"id":"84892596252020","authorId":"84892596252020","name":"成吉思汗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"84892596252020","authorIdStr":"84892596252020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"砖家自己买不买啊","listText":"砖家自己买不买啊","text":"砖家自己买不买啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/951750463","repostId":"2039527825","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":372782385119232,"gmtCreate":1732053958605,"gmtModify":1732053960528,"author":{"id":"84892596252020","authorId":"84892596252020","name":"成吉思汗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"84892596252020","authorIdStr":"84892596252020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a>阿里巴巴是不是要倒闭了啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a>阿里巴巴是不是要倒闭了啊","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 阿里巴巴是不是要倒闭了啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372782385119232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3480022123473953","authorId":"3480022123473953","name":"點石成金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13d21d88fa425f20c115872363cb90f5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3480022123473953","authorIdStr":"3480022123473953"},"content":"上周阻力大，短期没戏了","text":"上周阻力大，短期没戏了","html":"上周阻力大，短期没戏了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":373410929451456,"gmtCreate":1732204571253,"gmtModify":1732205285711,"author":{"id":"84892596252020","authorId":"84892596252020","name":"成吉思汗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"84892596252020","authorIdStr":"84892596252020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a>这个大**，天天他妈的下跌","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a>这个大**，天天他妈的下跌","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 这个大**，天天他妈的下跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373410929451456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":373160266387936,"gmtCreate":1732149166244,"gmtModify":1732149167624,"author":{"id":"84892596252020","authorId":"84892596252020","name":"成吉思汗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"84892596252020","authorIdStr":"84892596252020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a>跌跌不休，阿里巴巴拉稀了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a>跌跌不休，阿里巴巴拉稀了","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 跌跌不休，阿里巴巴拉稀了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373160266387936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":372808805904648,"gmtCreate":1732027299094,"gmtModify":1732027332325,"author":{"id":"84892596252020","authorId":"84892596252020","name":"成吉思汗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"84892596252020","authorIdStr":"84892596252020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a>阿里巴巴跌成狗屎💩","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a>阿里巴巴跌成狗屎💩","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 阿里巴巴跌成狗屎💩","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372808805904648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3505789160534954","authorId":"3505789160534954","name":"新东方新希望","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/723524038ef78bee4919ac5c0c0f2006","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3505789160534954","authorIdStr":"3505789160534954"},"content":"会跌到连🐶💩都不如[捂脸]","text":"会跌到连🐶💩都不如[捂脸]","html":"会跌到连🐶💩都不如[捂脸]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":373759929213408,"gmtCreate":1732290449893,"gmtModify":1732290450700,"author":{"id":"84892596252020","authorId":"84892596252020","name":"成吉思汗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"84892596252020","authorIdStr":"84892596252020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连 2412(GCmain)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连 2412(GCmain)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$黄金主连 2412(GCmain)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373759929213408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":81,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":221762273824856,"gmtCreate":1695177673284,"gmtModify":1695177673973,"author":{"id":"84892596252020","authorId":"84892596252020","name":"成吉思汗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"84892596252020","authorIdStr":"84892596252020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$ &nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$ &nbsp;</a>","text":"$上证指数(000001.SH)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/221762273824856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131546222,"gmtCreate":1621869696766,"gmtModify":1621869696766,"author":{"id":"84892596252020","authorId":"84892596252020","name":"成吉思汗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"84892596252020","authorIdStr":"84892596252020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"瞎说","listText":"瞎说","text":"瞎说","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131546222","repostId":"1127989948","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":345274292,"gmtCreate":1618321864116,"gmtModify":1618321864116,"author":{"id":"84892596252020","authorId":"84892596252020","name":"成吉思汗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"84892596252020","authorIdStr":"84892596252020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"别信，美股只会一直创新高","listText":"别信，美股只会一直创新高","text":"别信，美股只会一直创新高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345274292","repostId":"2126069667","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":333275764,"gmtCreate":1609301735758,"gmtModify":1703738676964,"author":{"id":"84892596252020","authorId":"84892596252020","name":"成吉思汗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"84892596252020","authorIdStr":"84892596252020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"在线教育都是吹牛逼","listText":"在线教育都是吹牛逼","text":"在线教育都是吹牛逼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333275764","repostId":"1131692167","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131692167","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1609153341,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131692167?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-28 19:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"跟谁学陈向东：8.7亿美元定增融资已全部到位","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131692167","media":"新浪财经","summary":"12月28日讯，在线教育公司跟谁学举办“高途Magic Moment”高途课堂品牌升级发布会。发布会上，跟谁学创始人陈向东表示，在今年12月7号的时候，我们宣布完成了特定的增发，增发的金额是8.7亿美","content":"<p>12月28日讯，在线教育公司跟谁学举办“高途Magic Moment”高途课堂品牌升级发布会。发布会上，跟谁学创始人陈向东表示，在今年12月7号的时候，我们宣布完成了特定的增发，增发的金额是8.7亿美金。我今天给大家再爆一个料，我们完成的特定增发的8.7亿美金没有去寻找第三方，也没有去寻找投行的帮助，我们就是和律师沟通，和投资人沟通，不到一个礼拜我们就完成了这个交易，并且在我们宣布做这项特定增发之后，在一个礼拜之内，钱是全部到账的。</p><p>陈向东称，很多人好奇说别的人去做一个特定的增发、做融资可能要几个月，为什么跟谁学一个礼拜就完成了。我说其实就是因为相信，因为有些投资人对你很了解，他知道你是一家好公司，他知道你特别具有学习能力、反思能力、战斗能力，他知道你有一个要把事情做到真正极致的强大团队，他自然就会相信你。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25f53f5afb285342cc748810a4677444\" tg-width=\"1027\" tg-height=\"498\"></p>","source":"XLCJ","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>跟谁学陈向东：8.7亿美元定增融资已全部到位</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n跟谁学陈向东：8.7亿美元定增融资已全部到位\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-28 19:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-12-28/doc-iiznezxs9428989.shtml><strong>新浪财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>12月28日讯，在线教育公司跟谁学举办“高途Magic Moment”高途课堂品牌升级发布会。发布会上，跟谁学创始人陈向东表示，在今年12月7号的时候，我们宣布完成了特定的增发，增发的金额是8.7亿美金。我今天给大家再爆一个料，我们完成的特定增发的8.7亿美金没有去寻找第三方，也没有去寻找投行的帮助，我们就是和律师沟通，和投资人沟通，不到一个礼拜我们就完成了这个交易，并且在我们宣布做这项特定增发...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-12-28/doc-iiznezxs9428989.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f49cfbbad938b58f9d764c4f5e672e9","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-12-28/doc-iiznezxs9428989.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131692167","content_text":"12月28日讯，在线教育公司跟谁学举办“高途Magic Moment”高途课堂品牌升级发布会。发布会上，跟谁学创始人陈向东表示，在今年12月7号的时候，我们宣布完成了特定的增发，增发的金额是8.7亿美金。我今天给大家再爆一个料，我们完成的特定增发的8.7亿美金没有去寻找第三方，也没有去寻找投行的帮助，我们就是和律师沟通，和投资人沟通，不到一个礼拜我们就完成了这个交易，并且在我们宣布做这项特定增发之后，在一个礼拜之内，钱是全部到账的。陈向东称，很多人好奇说别的人去做一个特定的增发、做融资可能要几个月，为什么跟谁学一个礼拜就完成了。我说其实就是因为相信，因为有些投资人对你很了解，他知道你是一家好公司，他知道你特别具有学习能力、反思能力、战斗能力，他知道你有一个要把事情做到真正极致的强大团队，他自然就会相信你。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":954283726,"gmtCreate":1592927502665,"gmtModify":1704200670599,"author":{"id":"84892596252020","authorId":"84892596252020","name":"成吉思汗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"84892596252020","authorIdStr":"84892596252020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"继续暴涨，涨到你怀疑人生","listText":"继续暴涨，涨到你怀疑人生","text":"继续暴涨，涨到你怀疑人生","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/954283726","repostId":"1190450302","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":951750463,"gmtCreate":1591074427852,"gmtModify":1704194246915,"author":{"id":"84892596252020","authorId":"84892596252020","name":"成吉思汗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"84892596252020","authorIdStr":"84892596252020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"砖家自己买不买啊","listText":"砖家自己买不买啊","text":"砖家自己买不买啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/951750463","repostId":"2039527825","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2039527825","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1590913080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2039527825?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-31 16:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"惊现超级大多头！专家看涨黄金至7000美元 仅凭这一个因素……","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2039527825","media":"FX168","summary":"原标题：惊现超级大多头！专家看涨黄金至7000美元 仅凭这一个因素……FX168财经报社(香港)讯 周日（5月31日）大西洋之家基金管理公司（Atlantic House Fund Managemen","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>原标题：惊现超级大多头！专家看涨黄金至7000美元 仅凭这一个因素……</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">FX168财经报社(香港)讯 周日（5月31日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">大西洋</a>之家基金管理公司（Atlantic House Fund Management）的多资产负责人Charlie Morris最新对黄金前景作出分析报告。其观点主要内容如下：</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">令许多专业投资者感到惊讶的是，黄金已成为21世纪最主要的资产类别。甚至在计入股息后，它的表现仍好于美国国债、美国股票、发达市场股票和新兴市场股票。在世纪之交，100美元的黄金投资已经变成了591美元。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">除非你把它借给别人，否则黄金是不会有收益的，这是一项非凡的成就。且因为它不支付收益，许多人认为黄金不能估价。我不这么认为，接下来对未来10年的黄金前景作出分析展望。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">黄金上涨的主要推动因素是实际利率的下降，也就是说，美国国债的收益率没有达到预期的通胀率。在2000年的时候，这个数字超过了4%，而最近变成了负数。当现金存款获得负的实际回报时，黄金被认为更有吸引力，这是完全不令人惊讶的，相比之下，在那些辉煌的日子里，你可以获得4%的实际收益率，而不承担任何风险。难怪2000年的<span>金价</span><span></span>很便宜。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">另一项观察显示，在金价创出2011年高点时，美国消费者价格指数(CPI)的涨幅为3.9%。黄金价格飙升，资产价格回落，欧元危机开始。黄金有一种独特的嗅出通胀的能力，一旦通胀威胁过去，黄金就会回落，而一般资产价格则会上涨。在2013年“缩减恐慌”爆发前，黄金价格曾感觉到了实际利率即将飙升。溢价在2011年达到近50%的峰值(当时金价比实际价值高出50%)，并在有关加息讨论开始前的18个月开始下跌。到“缩减恐慌”爆发时，溢价为零。它回避了这样一个问题：如果黄金在当时不断上升的通胀环境中形成了溢价，然后又预言了它的消亡，那么它可能会再次这么做。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">黄金溢价似乎是一种趋势。从2000年到2005年，股价上涨，但估值差距未能缩小。这是一个美元疲软的时代——尽管以美元计价的黄金在上涨，但以其它多数货币计价的金价却持平。只有当欧元和日元等货币计价的黄金开始表现强劲时，全球买家才开始购买黄金，而黄金的折价幅度也开始收窄。这种溢价一直持续到2011年，直到“缩减恐慌”爆发前才有所收窄。随后是5年的沉寂，而黄金则耐心地等待着总体资产价格的大幅下跌。</p><p cms-style=\"strong-Bold font-L align-Justify\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Justify\">到2018年底，一个新的溢价开始建立，这把我们带到今天。鉴于这种溢价的趋势性质，它更有可能从现在开始上涨，而不是逆转。这是因为黄金处于牛市，推动金价上涨的力量远远超过了阻碍金价上涨的力量。</font></p><p cms-style=\"strong-Bold font-L align-Justify\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Justify\">我认为金价将在2021年“嗅到”通胀。这是有道理的，因为央行的资产负债表正以惊人的速度扩张。量化宽松（QE）只是温和的通胀，因货币从来没有从银行体系中流出。</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">黄金溢价在2011年达到了50%，我不知道1980年的黄金溢价是多少，但可能差不多或更高。假设黄金正处于牛市，那么在某个时点也会出现类似的溢价，这种假设是合理的。我将坚持50%的溢价水平。鉴于目前的溢价是24%，有21%的概率将达到50%的溢价。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">在试图确定黄金在本世纪末的去向时，我们需要做出一些假设。不用说，未来是不可预测的，但不妨尝试一下。<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Justify\">简单的观点就是，通胀会卷土重来，仅凭这一点就足以考虑一种可能的情形。</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">如果通胀率超过4%，那么金价就会走高，反之亦然。拥有黄金并不意味着你必须盲目飞行。当前的黄金溢价让我们相信，更高的通胀即将到来，这对资产阶级的影响是巨大的。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">高通胀意味着美元走软，这意味着大宗商品价格走高，新兴市场股市飙升。这将使债券失去吸引力，并可能压低发达国家的股票估值。我们最后一次看到这种情况是在20世纪70年代，那些持有黄金的人发迹。</p><p cms-style=\"strong-Bold font-L align-Justify\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold align-Justify\">因此，综上所述，预计2030年隐含金价在7370美元/盎司。</font></p>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/cece9e13/20200514/343233024.png\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>财经APP</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>惊现超级大多头！专家看涨黄金至7000美元 仅凭这一个因素……</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n惊现超级大多头！专家看涨黄金至7000美元 仅凭这一个因素……\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-31 16:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/hjzx/2020-05-31/doc-iirczymk4510645.shtml><strong>FX168</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题：惊现超级大多头！专家看涨黄金至7000美元 仅凭这一个因素……FX168财经报社(香港)讯 周日（5月31日）大西洋之家基金管理公司（Atlantic House Fund Management）的多资产负责人Charlie Morris最新对黄金前景作出分析报告。其观点主要内容如下：令许多专业投资者感到惊讶的是，黄金已成为21世纪最主要的资产类别。甚至在计入股息后，它的表现仍好于美国国债...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/hjzx/2020-05-31/doc-iirczymk4510645.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63c4b7f0fed80012c8b751d783a3376","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","IAU":"黄金信托ETF(iShares)"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/hjzx/2020-05-31/doc-iirczymk4510645.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2039527825","content_text":"原标题：惊现超级大多头！专家看涨黄金至7000美元 仅凭这一个因素……FX168财经报社(香港)讯 周日（5月31日）大西洋之家基金管理公司（Atlantic House Fund Management）的多资产负责人Charlie Morris最新对黄金前景作出分析报告。其观点主要内容如下：令许多专业投资者感到惊讶的是，黄金已成为21世纪最主要的资产类别。甚至在计入股息后，它的表现仍好于美国国债、美国股票、发达市场股票和新兴市场股票。在世纪之交，100美元的黄金投资已经变成了591美元。除非你把它借给别人，否则黄金是不会有收益的，这是一项非凡的成就。且因为它不支付收益，许多人认为黄金不能估价。我不这么认为，接下来对未来10年的黄金前景作出分析展望。黄金上涨的主要推动因素是实际利率的下降，也就是说，美国国债的收益率没有达到预期的通胀率。在2000年的时候，这个数字超过了4%，而最近变成了负数。当现金存款获得负的实际回报时，黄金被认为更有吸引力，这是完全不令人惊讶的，相比之下，在那些辉煌的日子里，你可以获得4%的实际收益率，而不承担任何风险。难怪2000年的金价很便宜。另一项观察显示，在金价创出2011年高点时，美国消费者价格指数(CPI)的涨幅为3.9%。黄金价格飙升，资产价格回落，欧元危机开始。黄金有一种独特的嗅出通胀的能力，一旦通胀威胁过去，黄金就会回落，而一般资产价格则会上涨。在2013年“缩减恐慌”爆发前，黄金价格曾感觉到了实际利率即将飙升。溢价在2011年达到近50%的峰值(当时金价比实际价值高出50%)，并在有关加息讨论开始前的18个月开始下跌。到“缩减恐慌”爆发时，溢价为零。它回避了这样一个问题：如果黄金在当时不断上升的通胀环境中形成了溢价，然后又预言了它的消亡，那么它可能会再次这么做。黄金溢价似乎是一种趋势。从2000年到2005年，股价上涨，但估值差距未能缩小。这是一个美元疲软的时代——尽管以美元计价的黄金在上涨，但以其它多数货币计价的金价却持平。只有当欧元和日元等货币计价的黄金开始表现强劲时，全球买家才开始购买黄金，而黄金的折价幅度也开始收窄。这种溢价一直持续到2011年，直到“缩减恐慌”爆发前才有所收窄。随后是5年的沉寂，而黄金则耐心地等待着总体资产价格的大幅下跌。到2018年底，一个新的溢价开始建立，这把我们带到今天。鉴于这种溢价的趋势性质，它更有可能从现在开始上涨，而不是逆转。这是因为黄金处于牛市，推动金价上涨的力量远远超过了阻碍金价上涨的力量。我认为金价将在2021年“嗅到”通胀。这是有道理的，因为央行的资产负债表正以惊人的速度扩张。量化宽松（QE）只是温和的通胀，因货币从来没有从银行体系中流出。黄金溢价在2011年达到了50%，我不知道1980年的黄金溢价是多少，但可能差不多或更高。假设黄金正处于牛市，那么在某个时点也会出现类似的溢价，这种假设是合理的。我将坚持50%的溢价水平。鉴于目前的溢价是24%，有21%的概率将达到50%的溢价。在试图确定黄金在本世纪末的去向时，我们需要做出一些假设。不用说，未来是不可预测的，但不妨尝试一下。简单的观点就是，通胀会卷土重来，仅凭这一点就足以考虑一种可能的情形。如果通胀率超过4%，那么金价就会走高，反之亦然。拥有黄金并不意味着你必须盲目飞行。当前的黄金溢价让我们相信，更高的通胀即将到来，这对资产阶级的影响是巨大的。高通胀意味着美元走软，这意味着大宗商品价格走高，新兴市场股市飙升。这将使债券失去吸引力，并可能压低发达国家的股票估值。我们最后一次看到这种情况是在20世纪70年代，那些持有黄金的人发迹。因此，综上所述，预计2030年隐含金价在7370美元/盎司。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}