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RayLiu
2021-11-21
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
@走马财经:一图读懂阿里Q3财报：马云看了沉默 芒格看了流泪
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2.这只是一个简单的数据整理，我后面可能会写一篇长文分析。芒格在今年一季度买入了阿里巴巴的股票，买入价格估计在240美金左右，本想着抄个底，没想到被套，阿里股价一路下滑，虽然在三季度加仓摊低了成本，估计平均成本也在200美金左右，看到阿里这样一份财报，估计也要流下悔恨的泪水。当然，这是开玩笑了，芒格买入阿里不多，总共不到5000万美元，这笔钱对于伯克希尔来说不过是毛毛雨。在国内互联网遭遇强监管、电商赛道越来越拥挤且整体消费数据表现不佳的大环境叠加影响下，阿里这份财报其实并没有什么过分出人意料之处，请原谅我的标题党。实际上，阿里云还表现出了难得的韧劲，首次季度营收突破200亿，且已实现盈利，2022财年该业务突破800亿元营收几乎是100%确定的事情。我们假设2026财年前，阿里云维持4年的CAGR为25%，届时实现20%的经营利润率（AWS是30%的水平），那么2026财年该业务将实现大约2000亿元营收、400亿元经营利润，假设给予50倍PE，对应的估值为20000亿元，大约是3125亿美元。阿里只要守住电商规模第一名——这一点在2026财年前毫无悬念，截止11月19日3900多亿美元的市值，其实还是很安全的资产。当然，市场情绪激烈多变，一切皆有可能。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> ","text":"说明：1.下图所有利润数据都采用非国际通用会计准则，以剔除一次性、临时性财务数据影响。 2.这只是一个简单的数据整理，我后面可能会写一篇长文分析。芒格在今年一季度买入了阿里巴巴的股票，买入价格估计在240美金左右，本想着抄个底，没想到被套，阿里股价一路下滑，虽然在三季度加仓摊低了成本，估计平均成本也在200美金左右，看到阿里这样一份财报，估计也要流下悔恨的泪水。当然，这是开玩笑了，芒格买入阿里不多，总共不到5000万美元，这笔钱对于伯克希尔来说不过是毛毛雨。在国内互联网遭遇强监管、电商赛道越来越拥挤且整体消费数据表现不佳的大环境叠加影响下，阿里这份财报其实并没有什么过分出人意料之处，请原谅我的标题党。实际上，阿里云还表现出了难得的韧劲，首次季度营收突破200亿，且已实现盈利，2022财年该业务突破800亿元营收几乎是100%确定的事情。我们假设2026财年前，阿里云维持4年的CAGR为25%，届时实现20%的经营利润率（AWS是30%的水平），那么2026财年该业务将实现大约2000亿元营收、400亿元经营利润，假设给予50倍PE，对应的估值为20000亿元，大约是3125亿美元。阿里只要守住电商规模第一名——这一点在2026财年前毫无悬念，截止11月19日3900多亿美元的市值，其实还是很安全的资产。当然，市场情绪激烈多变，一切皆有可能。$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38fce56c7a4113058772cd48b363d983","width":"600","height":"333"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876308549","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1082,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
