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投资是种休行

投资是种休行

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投资是种休行

07-20 14:30

竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王

查看详情：竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王快来参与实盘竞猜活动，寻找你心中的收益王者，竞猜最高可获得USD 500代金券奖励。此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户

竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王

投资是种休行

07-18

有赢利就跑

投资是种休行

07-17

等你们不敢买了。我在进 [龇牙]

投资是种休行

07-16

感觉小盘股有希望的

投资是种休行

07-16

币圈起来的

投资是种休行

07-15

特斯拉起飞了

投资是种休行

07-12

还是去币圈防守吧

投资是种休行

07-11

有啊。可以给我提供保证金。一月一提 [流泪] [流泪]

投资是种休行

07-10

应该会被A4纸打败

投资是种休行

07-09

除非我巴哥自己控股上市公司不然很难啊。

投资是种休行

07-08

天空才是美股的镜头。不要怕冲

投资是种休行

07-08

感觉美股银行发财报也不错

投资是种休行

07-08

竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王

查看详情：竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王快来参与实盘竞猜活动，寻找你心中的收益王者，竞猜最高可获得USD 500代金券奖励。此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户

竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王

投资是种休行

07-06

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

非农或为就业市场再添寒意！9月降息能否一锤定音？

投资是种休行

07-06

营收在厉害也打不赢一张A4纸

@林氪:Youtube 24年Q1广告收入81亿，这还不算订阅收入。毛估下Youtube 的整体收入，24年一年估计都要至少400亿美金了。假设Youtube的净毛利率能有30%（应该不止），利润就有120亿美金了。对比看B站如今市值不过才66亿美金，Youtube一年的利润就快够2个B站了。两者在商业模式上，真是没有一点可比性。$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ $谷歌(GOOG)$

投资是种休行

07-06

这是科技看不起币圈。传统看不起新源的。。。期权看不起正股的。大家都只能做自己熟悉的圈子 [得意] [流泪] [流泪]

投资是种休行

07-05

人多的地方就不要做空，看好看可以。老话说。好奇害死猫 [开心]

投资是种休行

07-05

工作生活两不误

投资是种休行

07-04

他们知道一旦他退休了，公司可能走下坡路。说不定变贫用的。资金就少的。为的让公司一直伟大下去只能一直上班 [财迷] [财迷] [开心] [开心]

投资是种休行

07-03

3088我和老虎共同成长。老虎在不断变强变大。我在回本的路上

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f22c491ee8ae08f0d36ded0795f1fe33"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325071035715688","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":83,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":324503958974640,"gmtCreate":1720253654546,"gmtModify":1720253656706,"author":{"id":"63060731270784","authorId":"63060731270784","name":"投资是种休行","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c5a39ef2e8a38212af8843d6e9f6dc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324503958974640","repostId":"2449396782","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2449396782","pubTimestamp":1720162290,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2449396782?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-05 14:51","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"非农或为就业市场再添寒意！9月降息能否一锤定音？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2449396782","media":"金十数据","summary":"美国劳工统计局将于北京时间周五20:30公布最新的非农就业报告，市场普遍预计6月份新增就业岗位19万，低于5月份的27.2万；失业率预计将稳定在4%；平均时薪预计将同比增长3.9%，低于之前的4.1%。如果这些数据得到证实，这将有助于形成对美联储近期降息的预期。另外，强劲的美国非农就业报告加上火热的工资通胀可能会将金价推低至50日均线的直接支撑，目前为2340美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国劳工统计局（BLS）将于北京时间周五20:30公布最新的非农就业报告，市场普遍预计6月份新增就业岗位19万，低于5月份的27.2万；失业率预计将稳定在4%；平均时薪预计将同比增长3.9%，低于之前的4.1%。</p>\n<p>过去一个月，大多数经济指标都表明劳动力市场在冷却：与BLS就业报告调查窗口期相对应的申请失业救济人数增长；ADP就业人数指标低于预期，因为薪资指标下降，分析师指出，前瞻性的薪资指标表明未来工资增长将进一步放缓。6月份挑战者裁员人数同比上升，而5月份则有所下降；商业调查结果也令人沮丧，ISM制造业报告显示其就业分项指数回落至收缩区域，而ISM服务业就业分项指数进一步跌入收缩区域。</p>\n<p><strong>如果这些数据得到证实，这将有助于形成对美联储近期降息的预期。</strong>目前，市场认为今年降息两次的可能性很大（而美联储的中值预测是2024年仅降息一次），被完全定价的首次降息在11月会议上，<strong>而9月份降息的可能性约为80%——6月份的就业报告可能有助于提高这一可能性</strong>。如果就业增长的降幅很大，那么有理由相信7月或9月降息的几率都将大幅上升。</p>\n<h2>华尔街都在关注什么？</h2>\n<p>从总体来看，市场对6月份19万的就业增长预测，不仅低于5月份的27.2万，还低于24.9万的3个月平均值、25.5万的6个月平均值和23万的12个月平均值。而华尔街的预测范围从RBC Capital Markets预测的23.7万到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>预测的14万。</p>\n<p>高盛这一次失去了它对劳动力市场的乐观情绪，<strong>预计就业增长将非常糟糕</strong>。该行解释道，“大数据指标继续表明春季招聘季节创造就业的速度低于正常水平，我们的裁员追踪指标继续从低位小幅上升。我们还假设回报效应将对就业增长造成5万的拖累，因为我们认为上个月报告中比平时更长的调查窗口期将6月份的就业增长提前到了5月份。”</p>\n<p>高盛同时预计<strong>失业率将维持在4%不变</strong>。该数据此前连续27个月保持在4%以下，是1970年以来的最长连续周期，但在5月升至4%后结束了这种趋势。</p>\n<p>目前，美国失业率正处于关键节点。随着该指标逐步回升，人们开始讨论<strong>萨姆规则</strong>。目前失业率的三个月移动平均值比去年三个月移动平均值的最低值高出0.37个百分点，投资者正在关注该值是否会达到0.5个百分点。可以肯定的是，如果失业率较高，市场将有所反应。</p>\n<p>Indeed Hiring Lab经济研究主管尼克·邦克（Nick Bunker）表示：“这份报告发布之际，经济形势的不确定性比前几个月有所增加。具体来说，我<strong>更多地考虑的是失业率</strong>，它一直在缓慢上升。”他说，如果失业率像最近一段时间一样缓慢上升，我认为这也不意味着触发萨姆规则或任何基于失业率的衰退指标的风险很高，但可能性已经上升。”</p>\n<p>美联储6月份更新的《经济预测摘要》显示，政策制定者们预计今年的失业率将为4%，明年将升至4.2%。官员们普遍认为，通胀需要继续降温，劳动力市场需要继续逐步重新平衡，才能满足降息条件。</p>\n<p>尽管如此，如果劳动力市场出现意外疲软，降息计划可能会加速。<strong>鲍威尔本周重申，就业市场的任何意外疲软都可能引发美联储采取更宽松的政策。</strong>但他也表示，虽然就业市场正在降温，但仍然强劲。他还曾称，失业率的小幅波动，也就是百分之几，并不构成意外的疲软。美联储理事库克最近则指出，<strong>每月需要增加20万个就业岗位才能保持失业率稳定。</strong></p>\n<p>随着劳动力市场更加协调，<strong>工资增长速度将成为美联储降息预期的更大推动力</strong>，预计环比和同比增速都有所放缓。</p>\n<p>牛津经济研究院的分析师则认为，只要数据没有显示劳动力市场大幅恶化，那么总体而言，通胀放缓加上就业状况良好，应该使美联储可以耐心等待利率变动，这样他们就可以确保通胀以可持续的方式达到目标。</p>\n<h2>黄金：上至2400，下至2300？</h2>\n<p>目前所有人的目光都转向美国非农就业报告，该报告可能对市场对美联储降息的定价产生重要影响，从而影响美元和黄金的走势。</p>\n<p>如果这些关键数据低于市场预期，这将加强美联储今年两次降息的预期，9月份降息可能成为板上钉钉的事。在这种情况下，美元将进一步回调，为金价上涨提供新的动力。</p>\n<p>从技术面来看，Fxstreet分析师指出，金价的短期技术前景基本保持不变，黄金在周三收于关键的50日均线上方，突破本周的盘整趋势，此后<strong>风险便偏向上行</strong>。</p>\n<p><strong>一份疲软的就业报告可能使黄金多头重获突破动力，推动金价上涨至2400美元的门槛，但在此之前首先需要攻克2369美元的前两周高点和2389美元的6月份高点</strong>。目前黄金的14天相对强弱指数（RSI）在50水平之上，增加了其看涨潜力的可信度。</p>\n<p>另外，<strong>强劲的美国非农就业报告加上火热的工资通胀可能会将金价推低至50日均线的直接支撑，目前为2340美元。</strong>随后，如果抛售势头加剧，黄金空头可能会向<strong>21日均线2328美元</strong>方向施压。如果持续跌破该点位，可能会<strong>加速跌向2300美元大关。</strong></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>非农或为就业市场再添寒意！9月降息能否一锤定音？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n非农或为就业市场再添寒意！9月降息能否一锤定音？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-05 14:51 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=142723&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国劳工统计局（BLS）将于北京时间周五20:30公布最新的非农就业报告，市场普遍预计6月份新增就业岗位19万，低于5月份的27.2万；失业率预计将稳定在4%；平均时薪预计将同比增长3.9%，低于之前的4.1%。\n过去一个月，大多数经济指标都表明劳动力市场在冷却：与BLS就业报告调查窗口期相对应的申请失业救济人数增长；ADP就业人数指标低于预期，因为薪资指标下降，分析师指出，前瞻性的薪资指标表明...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=142723&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88a2cb93963bfe5211e6d848f1f81f16","relate_stocks":{"IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","RSI":"Rush Street Interactive, Inc.","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","BK4150":"赌场与赌博","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=142723&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2449396782","content_text":"美国劳工统计局（BLS）将于北京时间周五20:30公布最新的非农就业报告，市场普遍预计6月份新增就业岗位19万，低于5月份的27.2万；失业率预计将稳定在4%；平均时薪预计将同比增长3.9%，低于之前的4.1%。\n过去一个月，大多数经济指标都表明劳动力市场在冷却：与BLS就业报告调查窗口期相对应的申请失业救济人数增长；ADP就业人数指标低于预期，因为薪资指标下降，分析师指出，前瞻性的薪资指标表明未来工资增长将进一步放缓。6月份挑战者裁员人数同比上升，而5月份则有所下降；商业调查结果也令人沮丧，ISM制造业报告显示其就业分项指数回落至收缩区域，而ISM服务业就业分项指数进一步跌入收缩区域。\n如果这些数据得到证实，这将有助于形成对美联储近期降息的预期。目前，市场认为今年降息两次的可能性很大（而美联储的中值预测是2024年仅降息一次），被完全定价的首次降息在11月会议上，而9月份降息的可能性约为80%——6月份的就业报告可能有助于提高这一可能性。如果就业增长的降幅很大，那么有理由相信7月或9月降息的几率都将大幅上升。\n华尔街都在关注什么？\n从总体来看，市场对6月份19万的就业增长预测，不仅低于5月份的27.2万，还低于24.9万的3个月平均值、25.5万的6个月平均值和23万的12个月平均值。而华尔街的预测范围从RBC Capital Markets预测的23.7万到高盛预测的14万。\n高盛这一次失去了它对劳动力市场的乐观情绪，预计就业增长将非常糟糕。该行解释道，“大数据指标继续表明春季招聘季节创造就业的速度低于正常水平，我们的裁员追踪指标继续从低位小幅上升。我们还假设回报效应将对就业增长造成5万的拖累，因为我们认为上个月报告中比平时更长的调查窗口期将6月份的就业增长提前到了5月份。”\n高盛同时预计失业率将维持在4%不变。该数据此前连续27个月保持在4%以下，是1970年以来的最长连续周期，但在5月升至4%后结束了这种趋势。\n目前，美国失业率正处于关键节点。随着该指标逐步回升，人们开始讨论萨姆规则。目前失业率的三个月移动平均值比去年三个月移动平均值的最低值高出0.37个百分点，投资者正在关注该值是否会达到0.5个百分点。可以肯定的是，如果失业率较高，市场将有所反应。\nIndeed Hiring Lab经济研究主管尼克·邦克（Nick Bunker）表示：“这份报告发布之际，经济形势的不确定性比前几个月有所增加。具体来说，我更多地考虑的是失业率，它一直在缓慢上升。”他说，如果失业率像最近一段时间一样缓慢上升，我认为这也不意味着触发萨姆规则或任何基于失业率的衰退指标的风险很高，但可能性已经上升。”\n美联储6月份更新的《经济预测摘要》显示，政策制定者们预计今年的失业率将为4%，明年将升至4.2%。官员们普遍认为，通胀需要继续降温，劳动力市场需要继续逐步重新平衡，才能满足降息条件。\n尽管如此，如果劳动力市场出现意外疲软，降息计划可能会加速。鲍威尔本周重申，就业市场的任何意外疲软都可能引发美联储采取更宽松的政策。但他也表示，虽然就业市场正在降温，但仍然强劲。他还曾称，失业率的小幅波动，也就是百分之几，并不构成意外的疲软。美联储理事库克最近则指出，每月需要增加20万个就业岗位才能保持失业率稳定。\n随着劳动力市场更加协调，工资增长速度将成为美联储降息预期的更大推动力，预计环比和同比增速都有所放缓。\n牛津经济研究院的分析师则认为，只要数据没有显示劳动力市场大幅恶化，那么总体而言，通胀放缓加上就业状况良好，应该使美联储可以耐心等待利率变动，这样他们就可以确保通胀以可持续的方式达到目标。\n黄金：上至2400，下至2300？\n目前所有人的目光都转向美国非农就业报告，该报告可能对市场对美联储降息的定价产生重要影响，从而影响美元和黄金的走势。\n如果这些关键数据低于市场预期，这将加强美联储今年两次降息的预期，9月份降息可能成为板上钉钉的事。在这种情况下，美元将进一步回调，为金价上涨提供新的动力。\n从技术面来看，Fxstreet分析师指出，金价的短期技术前景基本保持不变，黄金在周三收于关键的50日均线上方，突破本周的盘整趋势，此后风险便偏向上行。\n一份疲软的就业报告可能使黄金多头重获突破动力，推动金价上涨至2400美元的门槛，但在此之前首先需要攻克2369美元的前两周高点和2389美元的6月份高点。目前黄金的14天相对强弱指数（RSI）在50水平之上，增加了其看涨潜力的可信度。\n另外，强劲的美国非农就业报告加上火热的工资通胀可能会将金价推低至50日均线的直接支撑，目前为2340美元。随后，如果抛售势头加剧，黄金空头可能会向21日均线2328美元方向施压。如果持续跌破该点位，可能会加速跌向2300美元大关。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":67,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":324398413152520,"gmtCreate":1720227889916,"gmtModify":1720227891738,"author":{"id":"63060731270784","authorId":"63060731270784","name":"投资是种休行","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c5a39ef2e8a38212af8843d6e9f6dc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"营收在厉害也打不赢一张A4纸","listText":"营收在厉害也打不赢一张A4纸","text":"营收在厉害也打不赢一张A4纸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324398413152520","repostId":"324243948441784","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":324243948441784,"gmtCreate":1720190176602,"gmtModify":1720190179301,"author":{"id":"3494195641553700","authorId":"3494195641553700","name":"林氪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da89ac1ca0dc74b7ac529ead7dc6d9e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Youtube 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14:51","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"非农或为就业市场再添寒意！9月降息能否一锤定音？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2449396782","media":"金十数据","summary":"美国劳工统计局将于北京时间周五20:30公布最新的非农就业报告，市场普遍预计6月份新增就业岗位19万，低于5月份的27.2万；失业率预计将稳定在4%；平均时薪预计将同比增长3.9%，低于之前的4.1%。如果这些数据得到证实，这将有助于形成对美联储近期降息的预期。另外，强劲的美国非农就业报告加上火热的工资通胀可能会将金价推低至50日均线的直接支撑，目前为2340美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国劳工统计局（BLS）将于北京时间周五20:30公布最新的非农就业报告，市场普遍预计6月份新增就业岗位19万，低于5月份的27.2万；失业率预计将稳定在4%；平均时薪预计将同比增长3.9%，低于之前的4.1%。</p>\n<p>过去一个月，大多数经济指标都表明劳动力市场在冷却：与BLS就业报告调查窗口期相对应的申请失业救济人数增长；ADP就业人数指标低于预期，因为薪资指标下降，分析师指出，前瞻性的薪资指标表明未来工资增长将进一步放缓。6月份挑战者裁员人数同比上升，而5月份则有所下降；商业调查结果也令人沮丧，ISM制造业报告显示其就业分项指数回落至收缩区域，而ISM服务业就业分项指数进一步跌入收缩区域。</p>\n<p><strong>如果这些数据得到证实，这将有助于形成对美联储近期降息的预期。</strong>目前，市场认为今年降息两次的可能性很大（而美联储的中值预测是2024年仅降息一次），被完全定价的首次降息在11月会议上，<strong>而9月份降息的可能性约为80%——6月份的就业报告可能有助于提高这一可能性</strong>。如果就业增长的降幅很大，那么有理由相信7月或9月降息的几率都将大幅上升。</p>\n<h2>华尔街都在关注什么？</h2>\n<p>从总体来看，市场对6月份19万的就业增长预测，不仅低于5月份的27.2万，还低于24.9万的3个月平均值、25.5万的6个月平均值和23万的12个月平均值。而华尔街的预测范围从RBC Capital Markets预测的23.7万到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>预测的14万。</p>\n<p>高盛这一次失去了它对劳动力市场的乐观情绪，<strong>预计就业增长将非常糟糕</strong>。该行解释道，“大数据指标继续表明春季招聘季节创造就业的速度低于正常水平，我们的裁员追踪指标继续从低位小幅上升。我们还假设回报效应将对就业增长造成5万的拖累，因为我们认为上个月报告中比平时更长的调查窗口期将6月份的就业增长提前到了5月份。”</p>\n<p>高盛同时预计<strong>失业率将维持在4%不变</strong>。该数据此前连续27个月保持在4%以下，是1970年以来的最长连续周期，但在5月升至4%后结束了这种趋势。</p>\n<p>目前，美国失业率正处于关键节点。随着该指标逐步回升，人们开始讨论<strong>萨姆规则</strong>。目前失业率的三个月移动平均值比去年三个月移动平均值的最低值高出0.37个百分点，投资者正在关注该值是否会达到0.5个百分点。可以肯定的是，如果失业率较高，市场将有所反应。</p>\n<p>Indeed Hiring Lab经济研究主管尼克·邦克（Nick Bunker）表示：“这份报告发布之际，经济形势的不确定性比前几个月有所增加。具体来说，我<strong>更多地考虑的是失业率</strong>，它一直在缓慢上升。”他说，如果失业率像最近一段时间一样缓慢上升，我认为这也不意味着触发萨姆规则或任何基于失业率的衰退指标的风险很高，但可能性已经上升。”</p>\n<p>美联储6月份更新的《经济预测摘要》显示，政策制定者们预计今年的失业率将为4%，明年将升至4.2%。官员们普遍认为，通胀需要继续降温，劳动力市场需要继续逐步重新平衡，才能满足降息条件。</p>\n<p>尽管如此，如果劳动力市场出现意外疲软，降息计划可能会加速。<strong>鲍威尔本周重申，就业市场的任何意外疲软都可能引发美联储采取更宽松的政策。</strong>但他也表示，虽然就业市场正在降温，但仍然强劲。他还曾称，失业率的小幅波动，也就是百分之几，并不构成意外的疲软。美联储理事库克最近则指出，<strong>每月需要增加20万个就业岗位才能保持失业率稳定。</strong></p>\n<p>随着劳动力市场更加协调，<strong>工资增长速度将成为美联储降息预期的更大推动力</strong>，预计环比和同比增速都有所放缓。</p>\n<p>牛津经济研究院的分析师则认为，只要数据没有显示劳动力市场大幅恶化，那么总体而言，通胀放缓加上就业状况良好，应该使美联储可以耐心等待利率变动，这样他们就可以确保通胀以可持续的方式达到目标。</p>\n<h2>黄金：上至2400，下至2300？</h2>\n<p>目前所有人的目光都转向美国非农就业报告，该报告可能对市场对美联储降息的定价产生重要影响，从而影响美元和黄金的走势。</p>\n<p>如果这些关键数据低于市场预期，这将加强美联储今年两次降息的预期，9月份降息可能成为板上钉钉的事。在这种情况下，美元将进一步回调，为金价上涨提供新的动力。</p>\n<p>从技术面来看，Fxstreet分析师指出，金价的短期技术前景基本保持不变，黄金在周三收于关键的50日均线上方，突破本周的盘整趋势，此后<strong>风险便偏向上行</strong>。</p>\n<p><strong>一份疲软的就业报告可能使黄金多头重获突破动力，推动金价上涨至2400美元的门槛，但在此之前首先需要攻克2369美元的前两周高点和2389美元的6月份高点</strong>。目前黄金的14天相对强弱指数（RSI）在50水平之上，增加了其看涨潜力的可信度。</p>\n<p>另外，<strong>强劲的美国非农就业报告加上火热的工资通胀可能会将金价推低至50日均线的直接支撑，目前为2340美元。</strong>随后，如果抛售势头加剧，黄金空头可能会向<strong>21日均线2328美元</strong>方向施压。如果持续跌破该点位，可能会<strong>加速跌向2300美元大关。</strong></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>非农或为就业市场再添寒意！9月降息能否一锤定音？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n非农或为就业市场再添寒意！9月降息能否一锤定音？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-05 14:51 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=142723&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国劳工统计局（BLS）将于北京时间周五20:30公布最新的非农就业报告，市场普遍预计6月份新增就业岗位19万，低于5月份的27.2万；失业率预计将稳定在4%；平均时薪预计将同比增长3.9%，低于之前的4.1%。\n过去一个月，大多数经济指标都表明劳动力市场在冷却：与BLS就业报告调查窗口期相对应的申请失业救济人数增长；ADP就业人数指标低于预期，因为薪资指标下降，分析师指出，前瞻性的薪资指标表明...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=142723&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88a2cb93963bfe5211e6d848f1f81f16","relate_stocks":{"IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","RSI":"Rush Street Interactive, Inc.","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","BK4150":"赌场与赌博","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=142723&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2449396782","content_text":"美国劳工统计局（BLS）将于北京时间周五20:30公布最新的非农就业报告，市场普遍预计6月份新增就业岗位19万，低于5月份的27.2万；失业率预计将稳定在4%；平均时薪预计将同比增长3.9%，低于之前的4.1%。\n过去一个月，大多数经济指标都表明劳动力市场在冷却：与BLS就业报告调查窗口期相对应的申请失业救济人数增长；ADP就业人数指标低于预期，因为薪资指标下降，分析师指出，前瞻性的薪资指标表明未来工资增长将进一步放缓。6月份挑战者裁员人数同比上升，而5月份则有所下降；商业调查结果也令人沮丧，ISM制造业报告显示其就业分项指数回落至收缩区域，而ISM服务业就业分项指数进一步跌入收缩区域。\n如果这些数据得到证实，这将有助于形成对美联储近期降息的预期。目前，市场认为今年降息两次的可能性很大（而美联储的中值预测是2024年仅降息一次），被完全定价的首次降息在11月会议上，而9月份降息的可能性约为80%——6月份的就业报告可能有助于提高这一可能性。如果就业增长的降幅很大，那么有理由相信7月或9月降息的几率都将大幅上升。\n华尔街都在关注什么？\n从总体来看，市场对6月份19万的就业增长预测，不仅低于5月份的27.2万，还低于24.9万的3个月平均值、25.5万的6个月平均值和23万的12个月平均值。而华尔街的预测范围从RBC Capital Markets预测的23.7万到高盛预测的14万。\n高盛这一次失去了它对劳动力市场的乐观情绪，预计就业增长将非常糟糕。该行解释道，“大数据指标继续表明春季招聘季节创造就业的速度低于正常水平，我们的裁员追踪指标继续从低位小幅上升。我们还假设回报效应将对就业增长造成5万的拖累，因为我们认为上个月报告中比平时更长的调查窗口期将6月份的就业增长提前到了5月份。”\n高盛同时预计失业率将维持在4%不变。该数据此前连续27个月保持在4%以下，是1970年以来的最长连续周期，但在5月升至4%后结束了这种趋势。\n目前，美国失业率正处于关键节点。随着该指标逐步回升，人们开始讨论萨姆规则。目前失业率的三个月移动平均值比去年三个月移动平均值的最低值高出0.37个百分点，投资者正在关注该值是否会达到0.5个百分点。可以肯定的是，如果失业率较高，市场将有所反应。\nIndeed Hiring Lab经济研究主管尼克·邦克（Nick Bunker）表示：“这份报告发布之际，经济形势的不确定性比前几个月有所增加。具体来说，我更多地考虑的是失业率，它一直在缓慢上升。”他说，如果失业率像最近一段时间一样缓慢上升，我认为这也不意味着触发萨姆规则或任何基于失业率的衰退指标的风险很高，但可能性已经上升。”\n美联储6月份更新的《经济预测摘要》显示，政策制定者们预计今年的失业率将为4%，明年将升至4.2%。官员们普遍认为，通胀需要继续降温，劳动力市场需要继续逐步重新平衡，才能满足降息条件。\n尽管如此，如果劳动力市场出现意外疲软，降息计划可能会加速。鲍威尔本周重申，就业市场的任何意外疲软都可能引发美联储采取更宽松的政策。但他也表示，虽然就业市场正在降温，但仍然强劲。他还曾称，失业率的小幅波动，也就是百分之几，并不构成意外的疲软。美联储理事库克最近则指出，每月需要增加20万个就业岗位才能保持失业率稳定。\n随着劳动力市场更加协调，工资增长速度将成为美联储降息预期的更大推动力，预计环比和同比增速都有所放缓。\n牛津经济研究院的分析师则认为，只要数据没有显示劳动力市场大幅恶化，那么总体而言，通胀放缓加上就业状况良好，应该使美联储可以耐心等待利率变动，这样他们就可以确保通胀以可持续的方式达到目标。\n黄金：上至2400，下至2300？\n目前所有人的目光都转向美国非农就业报告，该报告可能对市场对美联储降息的定价产生重要影响，从而影响美元和黄金的走势。\n如果这些关键数据低于市场预期，这将加强美联储今年两次降息的预期，9月份降息可能成为板上钉钉的事。在这种情况下，美元将进一步回调，为金价上涨提供新的动力。\n从技术面来看，Fxstreet分析师指出，金价的短期技术前景基本保持不变，黄金在周三收于关键的50日均线上方，突破本周的盘整趋势，此后风险便偏向上行。\n一份疲软的就业报告可能使黄金多头重获突破动力，推动金价上涨至2400美元的门槛，但在此之前首先需要攻克2369美元的前两周高点和2389美元的6月份高点。目前黄金的14天相对强弱指数（RSI）在50水平之上，增加了其看涨潜力的可信度。\n另外，强劲的美国非农就业报告加上火热的工资通胀可能会将金价推低至50日均线的直接支撑，目前为2340美元。随后，如果抛售势头加剧，黄金空头可能会向21日均线2328美元方向施压。如果持续跌破该点位，可能会加速跌向2300美元大关。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":67,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":324398413152520,"gmtCreate":1720227889916,"gmtModify":1720227891738,"author":{"id":"63060731270784","authorId":"63060731270784","name":"投资是种休行","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c5a39ef2e8a38212af8843d6e9f6dc3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"营收在厉害也打不赢一张A4纸","listText":"营收在厉害也打不赢一张A4纸","text":"营收在厉害也打不赢一张A4纸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324398413152520","repostId":"324243948441784","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":324243948441784,"gmtCreate":1720190176602,"gmtModify":1720190179301,"author":{"id":"3494195641553700","authorId":"3494195641553700","name":"林氪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da89ac1ca0dc74b7ac529ead7dc6d9e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Youtube 24年Q1广告收入81亿，这还不算订阅收入。毛估下Youtube 的整体收入，24年一年估计都要至少400亿美金了。 假设Youtube的净毛利率能有30%（应该不止），利润就有120亿美金了。对比看B站如今市值不过才66亿美金，Youtube一年的利润就快够2个B站了。 两者在商业模式上，真是没有一点可比性。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"Youtube 24年Q1广告收入81亿，这还不算订阅收入。毛估下Youtube 的整体收入，24年一年估计都要至少400亿美金了。 假设Youtube的净毛利率能有30%（应该不止），利润就有120亿美金了。对比看B站如今市值不过才66亿美金，Youtube一年的利润就快够2个B站了。 两者在商业模式上，真是没有一点可比性。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"Youtube 24年Q1广告收入81亿，这还不算订阅收入。毛估下Youtube 的整体收入，24年一年估计都要至少400亿美金了。 假设Youtube的净毛利率能有30%（应该不止），利润就有120亿美金了。对比看B站如今市值不过才66亿美金，Youtube一年的利润就快够2个B站了。 两者在商业模式上，真是没有一点可比性。$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 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