投资时代的个人主页 - 老虎社区

投资时代

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2021-02-21

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@Henryding:小米不管造不造车，依然是我心中的十倍股

2021-02-17

$麦克莫兰铜金(FCX)$冲fcx，未来可期

2021-02-17

不要怂，冲

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-12

$RLX科技(RLX)$建了一个底仓。再观察观察

2021-02-07

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

抱歉，原内容已删除

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">$RLX科技(RLX)$</a>建了一个底仓。再观察观察","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">$RLX科技(RLX)$</a>建了一个底仓。再观察观察","text":"$RLX科技(RLX)$建了一个底仓。再观察观察","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d3f7159ce03e1571782bfbf235db7e","width":"1176","height":"2400"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388467234","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3449893728298938","authorId":"3449893728298938","name":"易木","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce5284a03dee21f728beaf225c4dd9b7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"能形成一个金叉就漂亮了。","text":"能形成一个金叉就漂亮了。","html":"能形成一个金叉就漂亮了。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385907154,"gmtCreate":1613491510478,"gmtModify":1613491510478,"author":{"id":"61856791866560","authorId":"61856791866560","name":"投资时代","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不要怂，冲","listText":"不要怂，冲","text":"不要怂，冲","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385907154","repostId":"2111000185","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2111000185","pubTimestamp":1613453574,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2111000185?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 13:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2111000185","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？","content":"<p>作者：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">东吴证券</a>分析师&nbsp;陶川</p><p>春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？</p><p><b>供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。</b>随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c35ffd4d635351f031a841d59752b3\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"1010\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>春节后油价会继续上涨吗？</p><p><b>是的，我们预计上半年布伦特油价有望突破70美元。</b></p><p>从需求端来看：疫苗推广叠加美国财政刺激加码，原油需求稳步回升，尤其是在美国国会已经通过拜登政府的预算决议后，新一轮财政刺激（约为1.5万亿美元）有望于近期在美国实施。</p><p>从供给端来看：1）欧佩克+坚定减产立场，1月原油减产执行率为103%，且最大石油出口国沙特承诺在2月和3月额外减产100万桶/日；2）原油期货市场已出现贴水迹象，即原油现货价格高于期货，而历史上贴水的出现均伴随库存的明显下降（图2），这是因为此时原油厂商囤积库存不如当前变卖划算，从而加大去库存力度，导致原油供需进一步收紧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf40b5dc24118d86d0d26cb16b6dc07\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>从历史来看，油价一旦开启涨势，涨幅往往超出市场预期。</p><p>原油作为风险资产本身波动性较大，市场一旦出现油价利好信号，其上涨往往容易超出预期。复盘近年来的油价，2009-2011年、2017-2018年布伦特油价在突破60美元/桶后均出现大幅上涨，原因集中在市场流动性和原油供给上（图3）。具体而言：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56ee3fdc36a367214dd6f89dbcad52e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>（1）2009-2011年源于欧佩克严格执行减产协议、美国经济复苏、中国4万亿刺激带动原油需求，布伦特油价在2009年5月突破60美元/桶，随后两年又翻了一倍，最高上涨至127美元/桶。</p><p>（2）2018-2019年欧佩克减产协议执行持续超预期，布伦特油价在2017年10月突破60美元/桶，而后一年继续上涨，同期叠加特朗普政府单方面强行退出伊朗核协议，在2018年10月升至86美元/桶。</p><p>油价上涨如何影响股市？</p><p><b>对于美股而言，一方面</b>，随着页岩油的发展，美国正由原油的净进口国转变为净出口国，近年来油价上涨对投资的促进抵消了对消费的抑制，因此对美国经济产生净的正向拉动（表1）；</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e5111dafa2956777a6e3369265525a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>另一方面，</b>油价的上涨也反映出美国国内需求的持续扩张，后者也体现在上市公司的盈利增长上。因此，在此前布伦特油价突破60美元/桶后，美股亦继续上涨，在走势上与油价表现为同涨同跌（图4）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31498b08f289eadf5db4485fdc744074\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>对于A股而言，由于中国是原油的净进口国，故油价持续上涨对于整个经济运行成本是提升的。</b>我们注意到2017年以来国际油价在走势上与上证综指具有一定的负相关性，且前者在走势上领先后者约90天，<b>两者的相关系数达到了-0.74！</b>即油价在持续上涨一个季度后往往会出现股市的回调（图5）。其背后的原因，除了油价上涨可能侵蚀到部分中下游上市公司的盈利外，更有市场对油价持续上涨引发通胀风险和货币政策收紧的担忧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1ac0a4cbadc1666b8f08f86de188f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>风险提示：</b>全球经济复苏不及预期，原油减产执行率不及预期</p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，油价突破60美元和对股市的影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-16 13:32 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：东吴证券分析师 陶川春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。春节后...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/212c960aaeece26511e050463eddc3b0","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/411987.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2111000185","content_text":"作者：东吴证券分析师 陶川春节期间布油和美油均突破60美元关口，布油当前达到63.6美元/桶，为2020年1月以来新高。此轮油价的上涨如何演绎？对股票市场有何影响？供需趋紧、库存回落是此轮原油价上行的主导因素。随着全球经济活动复苏，原油供需均在2020年中触底反弹。2020年9月前由于供给仍好于需求，油价回升幅度有限（图1）；2020年9月后需求恢复超过供给、原油库存回落，油价进入上行通道。春节后油价会继续上涨吗？是的，我们预计上半年布伦特油价有望突破70美元。从需求端来看：疫苗推广叠加美国财政刺激加码，原油需求稳步回升，尤其是在美国国会已经通过拜登政府的预算决议后，新一轮财政刺激（约为1.5万亿美元）有望于近期在美国实施。从供给端来看：1）欧佩克+坚定减产立场，1月原油减产执行率为103%，且最大石油出口国沙特承诺在2月和3月额外减产100万桶/日；2）原油期货市场已出现贴水迹象，即原油现货价格高于期货，而历史上贴水的出现均伴随库存的明显下降（图2），这是因为此时原油厂商囤积库存不如当前变卖划算，从而加大去库存力度，导致原油供需进一步收紧。从历史来看，油价一旦开启涨势，涨幅往往超出市场预期。原油作为风险资产本身波动性较大，市场一旦出现油价利好信号，其上涨往往容易超出预期。复盘近年来的油价，2009-2011年、2017-2018年布伦特油价在突破60美元/桶后均出现大幅上涨，原因集中在市场流动性和原油供给上（图3）。具体而言：（1）2009-2011年源于欧佩克严格执行减产协议、美国经济复苏、中国4万亿刺激带动原油需求，布伦特油价在2009年5月突破60美元/桶，随后两年又翻了一倍，最高上涨至127美元/桶。（2）2018-2019年欧佩克减产协议执行持续超预期，布伦特油价在2017年10月突破60美元/桶，而后一年继续上涨，同期叠加特朗普政府单方面强行退出伊朗核协议，在2018年10月升至86美元/桶。油价上涨如何影响股市？对于美股而言，一方面，随着页岩油的发展，美国正由原油的净进口国转变为净出口国，近年来油价上涨对投资的促进抵消了对消费的抑制，因此对美国经济产生净的正向拉动（表1）；另一方面，油价的上涨也反映出美国国内需求的持续扩张，后者也体现在上市公司的盈利增长上。因此，在此前布伦特油价突破60美元/桶后，美股亦继续上涨，在走势上与油价表现为同涨同跌（图4）。对于A股而言，由于中国是原油的净进口国，故油价持续上涨对于整个经济运行成本是提升的。我们注意到2017年以来国际油价在走势上与上证综指具有一定的负相关性，且前者在走势上领先后者约90天，两者的相关系数达到了-0.74！即油价在持续上涨一个季度后往往会出现股市的回调（图5）。其背后的原因，除了油价上涨可能侵蚀到部分中下游上市公司的盈利外，更有市场对油价持续上涨引发通胀风险和货币政策收紧的担忧。风险提示：全球经济复苏不及预期，原油减产执行率不及预期","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":360816212,"gmtCreate":1613883119236,"gmtModify":1613883119236,"author":{"id":"61856791866560","authorId":"61856791866560","name":"投资时代","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360816212","repostId":"387617610","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":387617610,"gmtCreate":1613745220830,"gmtModify":1613873034264,"author":{"id":"3494595699048793","authorId":"3494595699048793","name":"Henryding","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0d1186a56fdc19a3b5268a37b245fa","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"小米不管造不造车，依然是我心中的十倍股","htmlText":"2018年7月在老虎开了一个交易账户，开户的唯一目的，就是买<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>！可想而知，两年后股价才站上发行价[捂脸]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;我一开始投资<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>的逻辑就是：一个做这么好产品的公司，发展前景肯定不会差！今天借着小米要造车的“谣言”分享一下我对小米的看法，这里就划两个重点：1. 智能家居2. 后疫情的消费降级（当然选择一家公司肯定不止看以上两点）第一，小米的万物互联之智能家居作为一个忠实米粉，从一个小米电视盒子开始，深深的爱上了小米，从此一发不可收拾[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;于是家里所有的电器都变成了小米， 从净水器到空气净化器，从吸尘器到电动窗帘，从路由器到电视机，配上摄像头和小爱音箱，亲手搭建了一个智能之家。这个有点像开了电动车以后就再也回不去燃油车一样，智能家居已经到来，万物互联是大势所趋。没找具体数据，但是小米的智能家居市场份额在中国是稳稳的第一宝座。小米是国内物联网，不能说最早，但是肯定是做的最好的，随着5G的普及，未来一定是一个万物互联的世界，前途就两个字：无量！小米现在的市值7000亿-8000亿，这个市值是港交所一家卖矿泉水公司的市值区间，不管小米有没有被低估，试问，你是否更愿意投资一家改变我们生活方式，让每个人都能享受科技乐趣的公司？I vote with my money！第二，小米的护城河之性价比我看到过一份美联储的资料说，从2008到2010这三年的金融危机高峰期间，最富十分之一的美国家庭财富平均积累还是增长的，不仅没跌，反而涨了2%；而同样时间内，中等收入家庭的财富中位数缩水了39.8%；然后，收入最低的","listText":"2018年7月在老虎开了一个交易账户，开户的唯一目的，就是买<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>！可想而知，两年后股价才站上发行价[捂脸]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;我一开始投资<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>的逻辑就是：一个做这么好产品的公司，发展前景肯定不会差！今天借着小米要造车的“谣言”分享一下我对小米的看法，这里就划两个重点：1. 智能家居2. 后疫情的消费降级（当然选择一家公司肯定不止看以上两点）第一，小米的万物互联之智能家居作为一个忠实米粉，从一个小米电视盒子开始，深深的爱上了小米，从此一发不可收拾[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;于是家里所有的电器都变成了小米， 从净水器到空气净化器，从吸尘器到电动窗帘，从路由器到电视机，配上摄像头和小爱音箱，亲手搭建了一个智能之家。这个有点像开了电动车以后就再也回不去燃油车一样，智能家居已经到来，万物互联是大势所趋。没找具体数据，但是小米的智能家居市场份额在中国是稳稳的第一宝座。小米是国内物联网，不能说最早，但是肯定是做的最好的，随着5G的普及，未来一定是一个万物互联的世界，前途就两个字：无量！小米现在的市值7000亿-8000亿，这个市值是港交所一家卖矿泉水公司的市值区间，不管小米有没有被低估，试问，你是否更愿意投资一家改变我们生活方式，让每个人都能享受科技乐趣的公司？I vote with my money！第二，小米的护城河之性价比我看到过一份美联储的资料说，从2008到2010这三年的金融危机高峰期间，最富十分之一的美国家庭财富平均积累还是增长的，不仅没跌，反而涨了2%；而同样时间内，中等收入家庭的财富中位数缩水了39.8%；然后，收入最低的","text":"2018年7月在老虎开了一个交易账户，开户的唯一目的，就是买$小米集团-W(01810)$！可想而知，两年后股价才站上发行价[捂脸] [捂脸] 我一开始投资$小米集团-W(01810)$的逻辑就是：一个做这么好产品的公司，发展前景肯定不会差！今天借着小米要造车的“谣言”分享一下我对小米的看法，这里就划两个重点：1. 智能家居2. 后疫情的消费降级（当然选择一家公司肯定不止看以上两点）第一，小米的万物互联之智能家居作为一个忠实米粉，从一个小米电视盒子开始，深深的爱上了小米，从此一发不可收拾[笑哭] [笑哭] 于是家里所有的电器都变成了小米， 从净水器到空气净化器，从吸尘器到电动窗帘，从路由器到电视机，配上摄像头和小爱音箱，亲手搭建了一个智能之家。这个有点像开了电动车以后就再也回不去燃油车一样，智能家居已经到来，万物互联是大势所趋。没找具体数据，但是小米的智能家居市场份额在中国是稳稳的第一宝座。小米是国内物联网，不能说最早，但是肯定是做的最好的，随着5G的普及，未来一定是一个万物互联的世界，前途就两个字：无量！小米现在的市值7000亿-8000亿，这个市值是港交所一家卖矿泉水公司的市值区间，不管小米有没有被低估，试问，你是否更愿意投资一家改变我们生活方式，让每个人都能享受科技乐趣的公司？I vote with my money！第二，小米的护城河之性价比我看到过一份美联储的资料说，从2008到2010这三年的金融危机高峰期间，最富十分之一的美国家庭财富平均积累还是增长的，不仅没跌，反而涨了2%；而同样时间内，中等收入家庭的财富中位数缩水了39.8%；然后，收入最低的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4a69e5d83deaabd992de9a5155c4c2d","width":"675","height":"421"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d15fd72952ebb5201c8ad2b80f740b13","width":"620","height":"465"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/977539e58a0260a95fb35a157c20cd89","width":"500","height":"977"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387617610","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1014,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385999607,"gmtCreate":1613491624109,"gmtModify":1613491624109,"author":{"id":"61856791866560","authorId":"61856791866560","name":"投资时代","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCX\">$麦克莫兰铜金(FCX)$</a>冲fcx，未来可期","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCX\">$麦克莫兰铜金(FCX)$</a>冲fcx，未来可期","text":"$麦克莫兰铜金(FCX)$冲fcx，未来可期","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b4fad70c1b0d23008e6fc4f96ebad1f","width":"1176","height":"2091"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385999607","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":389353912,"gmtCreate":1612696931336,"gmtModify":1703764345228,"author":{"id":"61856791866560","authorId":"61856791866560","name":"投资时代","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389353912","repostId":"1138355825","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}