奇奇的个人主页 - 老虎社区

奇奇

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2019-01-19

$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$ ，$三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ 缺口回补后强势反弹，轻仓试多，下周择机止盈，隔了一个周末，当然也有可能是止损。大趋势看空不变，最好天然气4块左右做空建仓安全。

2019-01-17

$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$ $三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ 目前来看，偏多，看今晚了，持续强势就做多，仓位轻一点。当然，不做也行。

2019-01-17

$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$ .$三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ .位置尴尬，多空不宜，空仓休息

2019-01-15

$三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ $三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$ 天然气持续强势，继续看高一线，做多持仓，走早的莫追。大趋势依然空，做空建仓不着急，观察天然气上是否上4

2019-01-14

$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$ $三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ 天然气反弹如期而至，力度较大，可以稍微看多一线，做多择机止盈。大方向依旧看空，逢高做空需要考虑到可能的几个反弹位置。

2018-03-29

值得拥有

$爱奇艺(IQ)$ 中国奈飞概念

2019-01-16

$三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ $三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$ 做空跟上，还有肉

2019-01-16

$三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ 15分钟已高位，做空的坐等1小时高位加仓

2018-10-19

$小牛电动(NIU)$ 中签了不显示持仓，日

2017-09-18

技术面基本面共振，剩下的留给时间

$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$技术面与基本面都支持做多，做对概率较大，果断下手，剩下的留给时间

技术面基本面共振，剩下的留给时间

2018-12-20

$三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ 60天争夺，逢高空

2018-12-19

$三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ 买买买

2018-11-19

$三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ 那个写书教你交易期权的人爆仓了 James Cordier爆仓的原因，在于裸卖空美国天然气看涨期权（naked short on call），无任何对冲保护。而就在Cordier公布爆仓的前一天，美天然气一度暴涨22%，这可能就是让其爆仓的直接原因。

2019-01-17

$三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ 做空15分钟低位止盈，现在位置尴尬，不适合持仓，观望休息

2018-12-29

$三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ 继续空，但是有反复。这波下来，几点感悟，慎用杠杆类，真要使用必须做好预案。

2018-12-24

$三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ 继续空

2018-09-29

$触宝(CTK)$ 明天还有一跌可以轻仓吃反弹

2018-09-25

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$ 坐等第二波

2018-06-15

莫名其妙

$朴新教育(NEW)$ 能不能靠谱点

2021-08-16

会不会到1500

@程俊Dream:重磅分析，本周黄金和白银大跌的底部是多少？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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因为无法找到因果关系，因此在后续的相关报导中，有看到略过说明的，却也有看到因为美股收涨，就用美联储政策「其实」没那么鹰派来解释。可再怎么看，收资金、早加息、降GDP、升通胀，从正常的逻辑来看都算股市的偏空因素，不能因为股市涨了，就把鹰派的利空说成不是利空。 漫长的操作岁月我学到了一件事，要能够在金融操作有大斩获，独立思考、不随波逐流是很重要的条件。逻辑永远比赚赔重要，因为拉长次数来看，决定赚赔的还是对的思维模式。能够判断别人的观点是否有逻辑上的瑕疵，就能够客观思考，不陷入固有框架而受限。 遇到美联储利空，股市却不跌反涨。我宁可用其它方式来解读，却也不愿意说成白马非马。几种可能性中，极少数的可能性是市场错误定价，会在之后的行情中调整回来，但在讯息传递深具效率性、参与者专业程度相对高的美股来说，机率是很低的。 利空不跌是行情重要解读之一 另一种可能性是，在美联储早已充分沟通下，本次相关的利空都已被市场预期。这种观点大部分成立，但","text":"2021年9月，一向引领全球央行的美联储终于跟上了欧央的脚步，于FOMC会议之后进一步明确了缩减购债。搭配还是坚持通胀是暂时性的观点，可以看出美联储的难处。把本次会后内容与上个月底的全球央行会议上鲍尔的谈话做个对比，原本预期年底Taper的时间点于此次进一步确认，可以发现政策转向明显更为鹰派。此外，点阵图暗示2022年提早加息的机率大增、下调今年GDP预期及提高通胀数据，四个面向，对股市都是利空。 美联储较六月调降今年GDP及调升通胀预期 可说也奇怪，利空环伺下，美股不跌反涨。在凌晨两点结果公布前美股早已大涨，这部份或可以归因于亚洲「雷曼再起」疑虑的消除，也可以是政府举债上限难题在众议院得到了初步的解决。但消息公布后美股持续强势，并未随著市场消化后而走低，收盘时道琼斯、Nasdaq及标普涨幅都在1%左右，让一堆专家摸不著头绪，鹰派的政策却迎来美股走扬？ 因为无法找到因果关系，因此在后续的相关报导中，有看到略过说明的，却也有看到因为美股收涨，就用美联储政策「其实」没那么鹰派来解释。可再怎么看，收资金、早加息、降GDP、升通胀，从正常的逻辑来看都算股市的偏空因素，不能因为股市涨了，就把鹰派的利空说成不是利空。 漫长的操作岁月我学到了一件事，要能够在金融操作有大斩获，独立思考、不随波逐流是很重要的条件。逻辑永远比赚赔重要，因为拉长次数来看，决定赚赔的还是对的思维模式。能够判断别人的观点是否有逻辑上的瑕疵，就能够客观思考，不陷入固有框架而受限。 遇到美联储利空，股市却不跌反涨。我宁可用其它方式来解读，却也不愿意说成白马非马。几种可能性中，极少数的可能性是市场错误定价，会在之后的行情中调整回来，但在讯息传递深具效率性、参与者专业程度相对高的美股来说，机率是很低的。 利空不跌是行情重要解读之一 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2009 年 3 月，我国正式宣布：发展以【纯电动汽车】为突破的新能源汽车战略。 从此，确立了我国汽车发展的新路线。 一个月后，特斯拉第一款电动车 Roadster Sport 宣布开始接受订单。 与此同时，在奥巴马的支持下，Tesla 获得了 4.65 亿美元的低息贷款。 两年后，奥巴马宣布： 到 2015 年美国争取实现年产销 100 万辆新能源汽车的目标！ 2009 年，中美两国非常默契的奠定了以【纯电动汽车】为突破口的新能源汽车战略，为改变汽车产业埋下了伏笔。 这一年，汽车制造强国日本，依靠强大的精工制造能力和优势，确立了以混合动力和氢能源为主的路线。 德国人则沉浸在 BBA（奔驰、宝马、奥迪）的王座里不能自拔，因为这一年他们创出了 380 万 的巅峰销量，却浑然不知巅峰是没落的开始。 02 从 2009 年开始，我国大力宣传新能源汽车，财政补贴力度加大，电动车销量快速增长。 到了 2015 年，国内新能源汽车产量达到 340471 辆，销量 331092 辆，比去年分别增长 3.3 倍和 3.4 倍。中国汽车工业协会预计 2016 年这个数量还会翻一番。 然而，数据出来后，日德车企们并不以为然。 因为这个华丽的数据背后，却存在着大量问题： 不少车企为了拿到补贴，快速上马了一大批质量差、续航短的电动车；甚至左手倒右手，将自己生产的低质量电动车成批打包给下属子公司，干着纯粹骗补的勾当。 一时间新能源汽车乱象频出： 有的车主新买的车，一个多月就几乎失去动力，原本 400KM 的航程，充满电只能走几十公里。还有的出现了无法启动、充电桩无法充电等问题。 不过，另一边的特斯拉却着实让世界惊艳了 一把。 2012 年，特斯拉发布了第二款汽车，大名鼎鼎的——Model S。它成为了特斯拉第一款爆款车型，其销量在 2013 年第一季度力压 BBA，夺得北美豪车销量","listText":"01 2009 年 3 月，我国正式宣布：发展以【纯电动汽车】为突破的新能源汽车战略。 从此，确立了我国汽车发展的新路线。 一个月后，特斯拉第一款电动车 Roadster Sport 宣布开始接受订单。 与此同时，在奥巴马的支持下，Tesla 获得了 4.65 亿美元的低息贷款。 两年后，奥巴马宣布： 到 2015 年美国争取实现年产销 100 万辆新能源汽车的目标！ 2009 年，中美两国非常默契的奠定了以【纯电动汽车】为突破口的新能源汽车战略，为改变汽车产业埋下了伏笔。 这一年，汽车制造强国日本，依靠强大的精工制造能力和优势，确立了以混合动力和氢能源为主的路线。 德国人则沉浸在 BBA（奔驰、宝马、奥迪）的王座里不能自拔，因为这一年他们创出了 380 万 的巅峰销量，却浑然不知巅峰是没落的开始。 02 从 2009 年开始，我国大力宣传新能源汽车，财政补贴力度加大，电动车销量快速增长。 到了 2015 年，国内新能源汽车产量达到 340471 辆，销量 331092 辆，比去年分别增长 3.3 倍和 3.4 倍。中国汽车工业协会预计 2016 年这个数量还会翻一番。 然而，数据出来后，日德车企们并不以为然。 因为这个华丽的数据背后，却存在着大量问题： 不少车企为了拿到补贴，快速上马了一大批质量差、续航短的电动车；甚至左手倒右手，将自己生产的低质量电动车成批打包给下属子公司，干着纯粹骗补的勾当。 一时间新能源汽车乱象频出： 有的车主新买的车，一个多月就几乎失去动力，原本 400KM 的航程，充满电只能走几十公里。还有的出现了无法启动、充电桩无法充电等问题。 不过，另一边的特斯拉却着实让世界惊艳了 一把。 2012 年，特斯拉发布了第二款汽车，大名鼎鼎的——Model S。它成为了特斯拉第一款爆款车型，其销量在 2013 年第一季度力压 BBA，夺得北美豪车销量","text":"01 2009 年 3 月，我国正式宣布：发展以【纯电动汽车】为突破的新能源汽车战略。 从此，确立了我国汽车发展的新路线。 一个月后，特斯拉第一款电动车 Roadster Sport 宣布开始接受订单。 与此同时，在奥巴马的支持下，Tesla 获得了 4.65 亿美元的低息贷款。 两年后，奥巴马宣布： 到 2015 年美国争取实现年产销 100 万辆新能源汽车的目标！ 2009 年，中美两国非常默契的奠定了以【纯电动汽车】为突破口的新能源汽车战略，为改变汽车产业埋下了伏笔。 这一年，汽车制造强国日本，依靠强大的精工制造能力和优势，确立了以混合动力和氢能源为主的路线。 德国人则沉浸在 BBA（奔驰、宝马、奥迪）的王座里不能自拔，因为这一年他们创出了 380 万 的巅峰销量，却浑然不知巅峰是没落的开始。 02 从 2009 年开始，我国大力宣传新能源汽车，财政补贴力度加大，电动车销量快速增长。 到了 2015 年，国内新能源汽车产量达到 340471 辆，销量 331092 辆，比去年分别增长 3.3 倍和 3.4 倍。中国汽车工业协会预计 2016 年这个数量还会翻一番。 然而，数据出来后，日德车企们并不以为然。 因为这个华丽的数据背后，却存在着大量问题： 不少车企为了拿到补贴，快速上马了一大批质量差、续航短的电动车；甚至左手倒右手，将自己生产的低质量电动车成批打包给下属子公司，干着纯粹骗补的勾当。 一时间新能源汽车乱象频出： 有的车主新买的车，一个多月就几乎失去动力，原本 400KM 的航程，充满电只能走几十公里。还有的出现了无法启动、充电桩无法充电等问题。 不过，另一边的特斯拉却着实让世界惊艳了 一把。 2012 年，特斯拉发布了第二款汽车，大名鼎鼎的——Model S。它成为了特斯拉第一款爆款车型，其销量在 2013 年第一季度力压 BBA，夺得北美豪车销量","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf2204e3d31e731d268e8a063b6df755","width":"673","height":"384"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84df94dc9c09cdd4991da5ce5c9f55b","width":"990","height":"515"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8825c2550333809d35d9725fa872ebb","width":"663","height":"361"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869260010","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":12,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865721386,"gmtCreate":1633022798440,"gmtModify":1633022798440,"author":{"id":"53137553765248","authorId":"53137553765248","name":"奇奇","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5ebb9b6c9c0fe4b0a76a04aa120e2dc0","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865721386","repostId":"869611528","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":869611528,"gmtCreate":1632279145060,"gmtModify":1635324225271,"author":{"id":"3534312224764596","authorId":"3534312224764596","name":"Ivan_甘灿荣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"一定要留意这一周：美股到了关键点位，推荐一个交易策略","htmlText":"上周给大家讲过，A股和美股进入到强弱反转特征，美股指弱势，但A股个股表现强势。其实美国有啥利空消息，已经不需要我多说了，Delta疫情的肆虐，美联储年底的Taper，美国债务上限，任何一个都可以是下跌的理由，毕竟涨多了出现调整是正常的。 调整幅度有多大很难确定，毕竟没有黑天鹅事件，更多的是利空事件的兑现。但最少上涨速度会大大下降，对付这种市场最好的办法，还是对冲。 （标普近期顶部在4549，仍符合区间特点） 所以这里还是给大家分享几个美股的对冲策略，既有宏观的，也有微观的，看对大家是否合适。 一、买A股国企股价便宜的个股、空美股指 自从A股眉飞色舞以来，股市相对活跃，与去年不同的是，今年A股虽然指数涨幅不大（慢牛），但低价个股活跃度很高。而历来如果A股有牛市，低价股通常不会缺席（涨幅要看有没有消息配合），叠加最近大宗商品的通胀预期，资源类的低价股大家都可以关注。 而美股指进入高位区间，涨幅会受到限制，因此担心系统性风险的话，做空美股指会比较合适，从而形成了一个宏观的对冲组合。 （连中石油都能大涨50%，其它个股也就不应该太悲观了） 二、持有美股，做空美股指 对于坚定持有美股的朋友来说，美股指有风险，自然也可以用做空美股指的方式来对冲一定的风险。美股指近期已接近60日均线附近，也是近期美股很重要的多空分水岭，若有效跌穿，可能会引起较大调整。（大伙别掉以轻心，美股指若调整10%，很多美股跌幅比这个大得多） 做空美股指的止损，可分批进入，一半以20日均线来止损，另一半可以新高作为止损。 三、多道指/标普，空纳指 纳指波动性比道指强，跌下来幅度也比道指较多。当前纳指道指比价仍处于历史高位，中长期来说该价位介入仍不算吃亏，但该组合的平仓时机不容易把握，除非纳指系个股出现系统性利空，不然也只能短期投机一把，还不如策略一来的稳妥。 四、关于其它策略 虽然美股指看空，作为对冲手段来","listText":"上周给大家讲过，A股和美股进入到强弱反转特征，美股指弱势，但A股个股表现强势。其实美国有啥利空消息，已经不需要我多说了，Delta疫情的肆虐，美联储年底的Taper，美国债务上限，任何一个都可以是下跌的理由，毕竟涨多了出现调整是正常的。 调整幅度有多大很难确定，毕竟没有黑天鹅事件，更多的是利空事件的兑现。但最少上涨速度会大大下降，对付这种市场最好的办法，还是对冲。 （标普近期顶部在4549，仍符合区间特点） 所以这里还是给大家分享几个美股的对冲策略，既有宏观的，也有微观的，看对大家是否合适。 一、买A股国企股价便宜的个股、空美股指 自从A股眉飞色舞以来，股市相对活跃，与去年不同的是，今年A股虽然指数涨幅不大（慢牛），但低价个股活跃度很高。而历来如果A股有牛市，低价股通常不会缺席（涨幅要看有没有消息配合），叠加最近大宗商品的通胀预期，资源类的低价股大家都可以关注。 而美股指进入高位区间，涨幅会受到限制，因此担心系统性风险的话，做空美股指会比较合适，从而形成了一个宏观的对冲组合。 （连中石油都能大涨50%，其它个股也就不应该太悲观了） 二、持有美股，做空美股指 对于坚定持有美股的朋友来说，美股指有风险，自然也可以用做空美股指的方式来对冲一定的风险。美股指近期已接近60日均线附近，也是近期美股很重要的多空分水岭，若有效跌穿，可能会引起较大调整。（大伙别掉以轻心，美股指若调整10%，很多美股跌幅比这个大得多） 做空美股指的止损，可分批进入，一半以20日均线来止损，另一半可以新高作为止损。 三、多道指/标普，空纳指 纳指波动性比道指强，跌下来幅度也比道指较多。当前纳指道指比价仍处于历史高位，中长期来说该价位介入仍不算吃亏，但该组合的平仓时机不容易把握，除非纳指系个股出现系统性利空，不然也只能短期投机一把，还不如策略一来的稳妥。 四、关于其它策略 虽然美股指看空，作为对冲手段来","text":"上周给大家讲过，A股和美股进入到强弱反转特征，美股指弱势，但A股个股表现强势。其实美国有啥利空消息，已经不需要我多说了，Delta疫情的肆虐，美联储年底的Taper，美国债务上限，任何一个都可以是下跌的理由，毕竟涨多了出现调整是正常的。 调整幅度有多大很难确定，毕竟没有黑天鹅事件，更多的是利空事件的兑现。但最少上涨速度会大大下降，对付这种市场最好的办法，还是对冲。 （标普近期顶部在4549，仍符合区间特点） 所以这里还是给大家分享几个美股的对冲策略，既有宏观的，也有微观的，看对大家是否合适。 一、买A股国企股价便宜的个股、空美股指 自从A股眉飞色舞以来，股市相对活跃，与去年不同的是，今年A股虽然指数涨幅不大（慢牛），但低价个股活跃度很高。而历来如果A股有牛市，低价股通常不会缺席（涨幅要看有没有消息配合），叠加最近大宗商品的通胀预期，资源类的低价股大家都可以关注。 而美股指进入高位区间，涨幅会受到限制，因此担心系统性风险的话，做空美股指会比较合适，从而形成了一个宏观的对冲组合。 （连中石油都能大涨50%，其它个股也就不应该太悲观了） 二、持有美股，做空美股指 对于坚定持有美股的朋友来说，美股指有风险，自然也可以用做空美股指的方式来对冲一定的风险。美股指近期已接近60日均线附近，也是近期美股很重要的多空分水岭，若有效跌穿，可能会引起较大调整。（大伙别掉以轻心，美股指若调整10%，很多美股跌幅比这个大得多） 做空美股指的止损，可分批进入，一半以20日均线来止损，另一半可以新高作为止损。 三、多道指/标普，空纳指 纳指波动性比道指强，跌下来幅度也比道指较多。当前纳指道指比价仍处于历史高位，中长期来说该价位介入仍不算吃亏，但该组合的平仓时机不容易把握，除非纳指系个股出现系统性利空，不然也只能短期投机一把，还不如策略一来的稳妥。 四、关于其它策略 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