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13:42

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@ETF小帮手:DXYZ上周上涨223.5%，周一再涨17.21%，受益Space X未来预期

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11-04

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上周上涨223.5%，周一再涨17.21%。DXYZ的上涨主要归因于该基金主要持仓的SPACE X &amp; OPEN AI在特朗普当选美国第47界总统后持续受益。原因是人们预期是Elon Musk作为特朗普的最大支持者，其创业公司SPACE X或在未来收获更多订单。1. 很多虎友可能还不太了解 <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DXYZ\">$Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$</a> .Destiny Tech100，股票代码DXYZ，其在2024年3月上市，它与普通的美股公司和ETF有些区别。DXYZ既非普通企业，也非ETF，而是一家依据1940年《投资公司法》注册的封闭式基金管理公司。其核心目标是将100家顶尖风险投资/创业投资（VC）支持的私营科技公司纳入其投资组合。该基金自2022年5月12日成立以来，不仅为普通投资者打开了通往私募市场的大门，更标志着对传统投资模式的一次大胆创新。截至2024年3月31日， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DXYZ\">$Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$</a> 已持有23家公司的股份，其资金部署约占初始资金的90%。其中，超过40%的资金集中在航空航天（如SpaceX、Axiom）、娱乐（如Epic Games、Discord）、金融科技（如Brex、Stripe）以及人工智能/移动领域（如OpenAI）的知名企业。马斯克创立的太空探索技术公司SpaceX以36.6%的持股比例位居榜首，其股份价值约为2181万美元。尽管SpaceX的最新估值已高达约2000亿美元，但Destiny Tech1","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DXYZ\">$Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$</a> 上周上涨223.5%，周一再涨17.21%。DXYZ的上涨主要归因于该基金主要持仓的SPACE X &amp; OPEN AI在特朗普当选美国第47界总统后持续受益。原因是人们预期是Elon Musk作为特朗普的最大支持者，其创业公司SPACE X或在未来收获更多订单。1. 很多虎友可能还不太了解 <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DXYZ\">$Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$</a> .Destiny Tech100，股票代码DXYZ，其在2024年3月上市，它与普通的美股公司和ETF有些区别。DXYZ既非普通企业，也非ETF，而是一家依据1940年《投资公司法》注册的封闭式基金管理公司。其核心目标是将100家顶尖风险投资/创业投资（VC）支持的私营科技公司纳入其投资组合。该基金自2022年5月12日成立以来，不仅为普通投资者打开了通往私募市场的大门，更标志着对传统投资模式的一次大胆创新。截至2024年3月31日， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DXYZ\">$Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$</a> 已持有23家公司的股份，其资金部署约占初始资金的90%。其中，超过40%的资金集中在航空航天（如SpaceX、Axiom）、娱乐（如Epic Games、Discord）、金融科技（如Brex、Stripe）以及人工智能/移动领域（如OpenAI）的知名企业。马斯克创立的太空探索技术公司SpaceX以36.6%的持股比例位居榜首，其股份价值约为2181万美元。尽管SpaceX的最新估值已高达约2000亿美元，但Destiny Tech1","text":"$Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ 上周上涨223.5%，周一再涨17.21%。DXYZ的上涨主要归因于该基金主要持仓的SPACE X & OPEN AI在特朗普当选美国第47界总统后持续受益。原因是人们预期是Elon Musk作为特朗普的最大支持者，其创业公司SPACE X或在未来收获更多订单。1. 很多虎友可能还不太了解 $Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ .Destiny Tech100，股票代码DXYZ，其在2024年3月上市，它与普通的美股公司和ETF有些区别。DXYZ既非普通企业，也非ETF，而是一家依据1940年《投资公司法》注册的封闭式基金管理公司。其核心目标是将100家顶尖风险投资/创业投资（VC）支持的私营科技公司纳入其投资组合。该基金自2022年5月12日成立以来，不仅为普通投资者打开了通往私募市场的大门，更标志着对传统投资模式的一次大胆创新。截至2024年3月31日， $Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ 已持有23家公司的股份，其资金部署约占初始资金的90%。其中，超过40%的资金集中在航空航天（如SpaceX、Axiom）、娱乐（如Epic Games、Discord）、金融科技（如Brex、Stripe）以及人工智能/移动领域（如OpenAI）的知名企业。马斯克创立的太空探索技术公司SpaceX以36.6%的持股比例位居榜首，其股份价值约为2181万美元。尽管SpaceX的最新估值已高达约2000亿美元，但Destiny Tech1","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d551fb4bfa4d10470a40f90a05bc56cd","width":"560","height":"240"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/97c14d99e556ed039411d17ba9713b07"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bc5fac9d8b64138515dcecd0db9588","width":"1212","height":"506"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370187540979712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":372670343823656,"gmtCreate":1731993497081,"gmtModify":1731993498250,"author":{"id":"4178666217916582","authorId":"4178666217916582","name":"Kendrick 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与分析师预期相比，coinbase的营收和利润双双低于预期： 三季报“暴雷”和比特币飙升的价格形成巨大反差，如果对比年内表现，比特币的价格上涨了70%，而coinbase的股价仅上涨22%： 为什么coinbase会跑输比特币呢？ 对比coinbase和比特币的走势，两者的趋势一致： 但从点位来看，比特币位于历史最高点附近，而coinbase离最高点还有很大的距离。 回溯过去2年的涨跌幅，coinbase2022年下跌了86%，当年比特币价格下跌64%；2023年，coinbase上涨391%，比特币上涨157%。 2022年，比特币价格多数时间处于底部震荡，2023年，则呈现单边上涨趋势。 今年的情况和2022年较为相似，除了年初的直线拉升外，其余时间处于横盘震荡状态。 由此来看，当比特币处于横盘震荡时，coinbase的股价往往跑输比特币，而当行情处于单边上涨趋势时，coinbase能够大幅跑赢比特币。 从交易量来看也能验证上述逻辑，比如今年三季度，coinbase总交易额1850亿美元，同比增长143%，环比下跌18%，远低于2021年四季度的5470亿： 因此，从收入上看，coinbase三季度为12亿美元，同比增长79%，环比下降17%，较2021年四季度的25亿营收相差甚远： 因此，虽然比特币的价格处于历史最高点附近，但由于波动率较低，coinbase的收入和比特币价格的涨幅不成正比，股价表现自然也就拉胯了！ 除了比特币震荡走势造成不利影响外，coinbase在激烈的竞争中也受到了影响。比如根据Sensor Tower的数据显示，三季度","listText":"昨日，加密货币交易所coinbase公布了三季报，业绩低于预期，盘后股价下跌4.84%： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a> 与分析师预期相比，coinbase的营收和利润双双低于预期： 三季报“暴雷”和比特币飙升的价格形成巨大反差，如果对比年内表现，比特币的价格上涨了70%，而coinbase的股价仅上涨22%： 为什么coinbase会跑输比特币呢？ 对比coinbase和比特币的走势，两者的趋势一致： 但从点位来看，比特币位于历史最高点附近，而coinbase离最高点还有很大的距离。 回溯过去2年的涨跌幅，coinbase2022年下跌了86%，当年比特币价格下跌64%；2023年，coinbase上涨391%，比特币上涨157%。 2022年，比特币价格多数时间处于底部震荡，2023年，则呈现单边上涨趋势。 今年的情况和2022年较为相似，除了年初的直线拉升外，其余时间处于横盘震荡状态。 由此来看，当比特币处于横盘震荡时，coinbase的股价往往跑输比特币，而当行情处于单边上涨趋势时，coinbase能够大幅跑赢比特币。 从交易量来看也能验证上述逻辑，比如今年三季度，coinbase总交易额1850亿美元，同比增长143%，环比下跌18%，远低于2021年四季度的5470亿： 因此，从收入上看，coinbase三季度为12亿美元，同比增长79%，环比下降17%，较2021年四季度的25亿营收相差甚远： 因此，虽然比特币的价格处于历史最高点附近，但由于波动率较低，coinbase的收入和比特币价格的涨幅不成正比，股价表现自然也就拉胯了！ 除了比特币震荡走势造成不利影响外，coinbase在激烈的竞争中也受到了影响。比如根据Sensor Tower的数据显示，三季度","text":"昨日，加密货币交易所coinbase公布了三季报，业绩低于预期，盘后股价下跌4.84%： $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 与分析师预期相比，coinbase的营收和利润双双低于预期： 三季报“暴雷”和比特币飙升的价格形成巨大反差，如果对比年内表现，比特币的价格上涨了70%，而coinbase的股价仅上涨22%： 为什么coinbase会跑输比特币呢？ 对比coinbase和比特币的走势，两者的趋势一致： 但从点位来看，比特币位于历史最高点附近，而coinbase离最高点还有很大的距离。 回溯过去2年的涨跌幅，coinbase2022年下跌了86%，当年比特币价格下跌64%；2023年，coinbase上涨391%，比特币上涨157%。 2022年，比特币价格多数时间处于底部震荡，2023年，则呈现单边上涨趋势。 今年的情况和2022年较为相似，除了年初的直线拉升外，其余时间处于横盘震荡状态。 由此来看，当比特币处于横盘震荡时，coinbase的股价往往跑输比特币，而当行情处于单边上涨趋势时，coinbase能够大幅跑赢比特币。 从交易量来看也能验证上述逻辑，比如今年三季度，coinbase总交易额1850亿美元，同比增长143%，环比下跌18%，远低于2021年四季度的5470亿： 因此，从收入上看，coinbase三季度为12亿美元，同比增长79%，环比下降17%，较2021年四季度的25亿营收相差甚远： 因此，虽然比特币的价格处于历史最高点附近，但由于波动率较低，coinbase的收入和比特币价格的涨幅不成正比，股价表现自然也就拉胯了！ 除了比特币震荡走势造成不利影响外，coinbase在激烈的竞争中也受到了影响。比如根据Sensor 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有些人会觉得，大型AI股已经超买太久了，随着时间越来越接近美国大选，不确定性越来越强的情况下，科技股很可能出现重挫，并从此一蹶不振；但也有人觉得，AI还是未来很长一段时间里最重要的母题材，它所涉及的电力、芯片、云服务和AI应用等等从上到下的所有节点题材，都会上涨。 当然，无论哪种猜测，终归还是要看一个根本性的前提：AI的狂热需要买家，而现如今最重要的买家就是这些云服务厂商。是他们在支付大量的美元购买电力、芯片，组建庞大的计算中心，也是他们在用金钱投资于AI的应用，想让后者尽快成为社会的核心力量。 因此，看懂他们财报释放的信号，就能对AI时代的延续产生更明确的判断。 01&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;信号一：资本开支还会持续扩大 在看今年Q3财报之前，需要厘清一个问题，就是关于大科技公司的资本开支。在今年的Q2财报季，Pichai在谷歌业绩会上对AI带来的资本开支问题的回应，让整个市场吓了一大跳： “我认为我思考这个问题的方式是，当我们经历这样的曲线时，对我们来说，投资不足的风险远远大于投资过度的风险，即使在最终结果表明我们投资过多的情况下也是如此。” 这种来自业界龙头领导、含糊其辞却又非常负面的回答对于整个行业都是毁灭性的。它基本上引发了市场对科技巨头过度投资人工智能风险的担忧，这导致了谷歌随后被抛售，又影响了诸如微软、亚马逊等在内，以云服务业务为增长核心的企业，他们的股价在二季度之后大跌，至今仍未回归当时的高点。 时至今日，一个季度过去了，围绕资本开支的讨论和质疑没有消失，这种高强度的、甚至有些疯狂的资本开支扩张，仍然是市场对科技巨头最大的质疑。就像微软在业绩发布后经历的这样，即便","listText":"当地时间10月31日盘后，随着亚马逊发布了自己的财报，全球三大云服务厂商已经全部披露了第三季度的业绩，这三家企业作为整个AI大模型潮流中最重要的“大金主”，直接决定了整个AI链条的命运。 有些人会觉得，大型AI股已经超买太久了，随着时间越来越接近美国大选，不确定性越来越强的情况下，科技股很可能出现重挫，并从此一蹶不振；但也有人觉得，AI还是未来很长一段时间里最重要的母题材，它所涉及的电力、芯片、云服务和AI应用等等从上到下的所有节点题材，都会上涨。 当然，无论哪种猜测，终归还是要看一个根本性的前提：AI的狂热需要买家，而现如今最重要的买家就是这些云服务厂商。是他们在支付大量的美元购买电力、芯片，组建庞大的计算中心，也是他们在用金钱投资于AI的应用，想让后者尽快成为社会的核心力量。 因此，看懂他们财报释放的信号，就能对AI时代的延续产生更明确的判断。 01&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;信号一：资本开支还会持续扩大 在看今年Q3财报之前，需要厘清一个问题，就是关于大科技公司的资本开支。在今年的Q2财报季，Pichai在谷歌业绩会上对AI带来的资本开支问题的回应，让整个市场吓了一大跳： “我认为我思考这个问题的方式是，当我们经历这样的曲线时，对我们来说，投资不足的风险远远大于投资过度的风险，即使在最终结果表明我们投资过多的情况下也是如此。” 这种来自业界龙头领导、含糊其辞却又非常负面的回答对于整个行业都是毁灭性的。它基本上引发了市场对科技巨头过度投资人工智能风险的担忧，这导致了谷歌随后被抛售，又影响了诸如微软、亚马逊等在内，以云服务业务为增长核心的企业，他们的股价在二季度之后大跌，至今仍未回归当时的高点。 时至今日，一个季度过去了，围绕资本开支的讨论和质疑没有消失，这种高强度的、甚至有些疯狂的资本开支扩张，仍然是市场对科技巨头最大的质疑。就像微软在业绩发布后经历的这样，即便","text":"当地时间10月31日盘后，随着亚马逊发布了自己的财报，全球三大云服务厂商已经全部披露了第三季度的业绩，这三家企业作为整个AI大模型潮流中最重要的“大金主”，直接决定了整个AI链条的命运。 有些人会觉得，大型AI股已经超买太久了，随着时间越来越接近美国大选，不确定性越来越强的情况下，科技股很可能出现重挫，并从此一蹶不振；但也有人觉得，AI还是未来很长一段时间里最重要的母题材，它所涉及的电力、芯片、云服务和AI应用等等从上到下的所有节点题材，都会上涨。 当然，无论哪种猜测，终归还是要看一个根本性的前提：AI的狂热需要买家，而现如今最重要的买家就是这些云服务厂商。是他们在支付大量的美元购买电力、芯片，组建庞大的计算中心，也是他们在用金钱投资于AI的应用，想让后者尽快成为社会的核心力量。 因此，看懂他们财报释放的信号，就能对AI时代的延续产生更明确的判断。 01 信号一：资本开支还会持续扩大 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上周上涨223.5%，周一再涨17.21%。DXYZ的上涨主要归因于该基金主要持仓的SPACE X &amp; OPEN AI在特朗普当选美国第47界总统后持续受益。原因是人们预期是Elon Musk作为特朗普的最大支持者，其创业公司SPACE X或在未来收获更多订单。1. 很多虎友可能还不太了解 <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DXYZ\">$Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$</a> .Destiny Tech100，股票代码DXYZ，其在2024年3月上市，它与普通的美股公司和ETF有些区别。DXYZ既非普通企业，也非ETF，而是一家依据1940年《投资公司法》注册的封闭式基金管理公司。其核心目标是将100家顶尖风险投资/创业投资（VC）支持的私营科技公司纳入其投资组合。该基金自2022年5月12日成立以来，不仅为普通投资者打开了通往私募市场的大门，更标志着对传统投资模式的一次大胆创新。截至2024年3月31日， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DXYZ\">$Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$</a> 已持有23家公司的股份，其资金部署约占初始资金的90%。其中，超过40%的资金集中在航空航天（如SpaceX、Axiom）、娱乐（如Epic Games、Discord）、金融科技（如Brex、Stripe）以及人工智能/移动领域（如OpenAI）的知名企业。马斯克创立的太空探索技术公司SpaceX以36.6%的持股比例位居榜首，其股份价值约为2181万美元。尽管SpaceX的最新估值已高达约2000亿美元，但Destiny Tech1","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DXYZ\">$Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$</a> 上周上涨223.5%，周一再涨17.21%。DXYZ的上涨主要归因于该基金主要持仓的SPACE X &amp; OPEN AI在特朗普当选美国第47界总统后持续受益。原因是人们预期是Elon Musk作为特朗普的最大支持者，其创业公司SPACE X或在未来收获更多订单。1. 很多虎友可能还不太了解 <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DXYZ\">$Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$</a> .Destiny Tech100，股票代码DXYZ，其在2024年3月上市，它与普通的美股公司和ETF有些区别。DXYZ既非普通企业，也非ETF，而是一家依据1940年《投资公司法》注册的封闭式基金管理公司。其核心目标是将100家顶尖风险投资/创业投资（VC）支持的私营科技公司纳入其投资组合。该基金自2022年5月12日成立以来，不仅为普通投资者打开了通往私募市场的大门，更标志着对传统投资模式的一次大胆创新。截至2024年3月31日， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DXYZ\">$Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$</a> 已持有23家公司的股份，其资金部署约占初始资金的90%。其中，超过40%的资金集中在航空航天（如SpaceX、Axiom）、娱乐（如Epic Games、Discord）、金融科技（如Brex、Stripe）以及人工智能/移动领域（如OpenAI）的知名企业。马斯克创立的太空探索技术公司SpaceX以36.6%的持股比例位居榜首，其股份价值约为2181万美元。尽管SpaceX的最新估值已高达约2000亿美元，但Destiny Tech1","text":"$Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ 上周上涨223.5%，周一再涨17.21%。DXYZ的上涨主要归因于该基金主要持仓的SPACE X & OPEN AI在特朗普当选美国第47界总统后持续受益。原因是人们预期是Elon Musk作为特朗普的最大支持者，其创业公司SPACE X或在未来收获更多订单。1. 很多虎友可能还不太了解 $Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ .Destiny Tech100，股票代码DXYZ，其在2024年3月上市，它与普通的美股公司和ETF有些区别。DXYZ既非普通企业，也非ETF，而是一家依据1940年《投资公司法》注册的封闭式基金管理公司。其核心目标是将100家顶尖风险投资/创业投资（VC）支持的私营科技公司纳入其投资组合。该基金自2022年5月12日成立以来，不仅为普通投资者打开了通往私募市场的大门，更标志着对传统投资模式的一次大胆创新。截至2024年3月31日， $Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ 已持有23家公司的股份，其资金部署约占初始资金的90%。其中，超过40%的资金集中在航空航天（如SpaceX、Axiom）、娱乐（如Epic Games、Discord）、金融科技（如Brex、Stripe）以及人工智能/移动领域（如OpenAI）的知名企业。马斯克创立的太空探索技术公司SpaceX以36.6%的持股比例位居榜首，其股份价值约为2181万美元。尽管SpaceX的最新估值已高达约2000亿美元，但Destiny 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与分析师预期相比，coinbase的营收和利润双双低于预期： 三季报“暴雷”和比特币飙升的价格形成巨大反差，如果对比年内表现，比特币的价格上涨了70%，而coinbase的股价仅上涨22%： 为什么coinbase会跑输比特币呢？ 对比coinbase和比特币的走势，两者的趋势一致： 但从点位来看，比特币位于历史最高点附近，而coinbase离最高点还有很大的距离。 回溯过去2年的涨跌幅，coinbase2022年下跌了86%，当年比特币价格下跌64%；2023年，coinbase上涨391%，比特币上涨157%。 2022年，比特币价格多数时间处于底部震荡，2023年，则呈现单边上涨趋势。 今年的情况和2022年较为相似，除了年初的直线拉升外，其余时间处于横盘震荡状态。 由此来看，当比特币处于横盘震荡时，coinbase的股价往往跑输比特币，而当行情处于单边上涨趋势时，coinbase能够大幅跑赢比特币。 从交易量来看也能验证上述逻辑，比如今年三季度，coinbase总交易额1850亿美元，同比增长143%，环比下跌18%，远低于2021年四季度的5470亿： 因此，从收入上看，coinbase三季度为12亿美元，同比增长79%，环比下降17%，较2021年四季度的25亿营收相差甚远： 因此，虽然比特币的价格处于历史最高点附近，但由于波动率较低，coinbase的收入和比特币价格的涨幅不成正比，股价表现自然也就拉胯了！ 除了比特币震荡走势造成不利影响外，coinbase在激烈的竞争中也受到了影响。比如根据Sensor Tower的数据显示，三季度","listText":"昨日，加密货币交易所coinbase公布了三季报，业绩低于预期，盘后股价下跌4.84%： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a> 与分析师预期相比，coinbase的营收和利润双双低于预期： 三季报“暴雷”和比特币飙升的价格形成巨大反差，如果对比年内表现，比特币的价格上涨了70%，而coinbase的股价仅上涨22%： 为什么coinbase会跑输比特币呢？ 对比coinbase和比特币的走势，两者的趋势一致： 但从点位来看，比特币位于历史最高点附近，而coinbase离最高点还有很大的距离。 回溯过去2年的涨跌幅，coinbase2022年下跌了86%，当年比特币价格下跌64%；2023年，coinbase上涨391%，比特币上涨157%。 2022年，比特币价格多数时间处于底部震荡，2023年，则呈现单边上涨趋势。 今年的情况和2022年较为相似，除了年初的直线拉升外，其余时间处于横盘震荡状态。 由此来看，当比特币处于横盘震荡时，coinbase的股价往往跑输比特币，而当行情处于单边上涨趋势时，coinbase能够大幅跑赢比特币。 从交易量来看也能验证上述逻辑，比如今年三季度，coinbase总交易额1850亿美元，同比增长143%，环比下跌18%，远低于2021年四季度的5470亿： 因此，从收入上看，coinbase三季度为12亿美元，同比增长79%，环比下降17%，较2021年四季度的25亿营收相差甚远： 因此，虽然比特币的价格处于历史最高点附近，但由于波动率较低，coinbase的收入和比特币价格的涨幅不成正比，股价表现自然也就拉胯了！ 除了比特币震荡走势造成不利影响外，coinbase在激烈的竞争中也受到了影响。比如根据Sensor Tower的数据显示，三季度","text":"昨日，加密货币交易所coinbase公布了三季报，业绩低于预期，盘后股价下跌4.84%： $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 与分析师预期相比，coinbase的营收和利润双双低于预期： 三季报“暴雷”和比特币飙升的价格形成巨大反差，如果对比年内表现，比特币的价格上涨了70%，而coinbase的股价仅上涨22%： 为什么coinbase会跑输比特币呢？ 对比coinbase和比特币的走势，两者的趋势一致： 但从点位来看，比特币位于历史最高点附近，而coinbase离最高点还有很大的距离。 回溯过去2年的涨跌幅，coinbase2022年下跌了86%，当年比特币价格下跌64%；2023年，coinbase上涨391%，比特币上涨157%。 2022年，比特币价格多数时间处于底部震荡，2023年，则呈现单边上涨趋势。 今年的情况和2022年较为相似，除了年初的直线拉升外，其余时间处于横盘震荡状态。 由此来看，当比特币处于横盘震荡时，coinbase的股价往往跑输比特币，而当行情处于单边上涨趋势时，coinbase能够大幅跑赢比特币。 从交易量来看也能验证上述逻辑，比如今年三季度，coinbase总交易额1850亿美元，同比增长143%，环比下跌18%，远低于2021年四季度的5470亿： 因此，从收入上看，coinbase三季度为12亿美元，同比增长79%，环比下降17%，较2021年四季度的25亿营收相差甚远： 因此，虽然比特币的价格处于历史最高点附近，但由于波动率较低，coinbase的收入和比特币价格的涨幅不成正比，股价表现自然也就拉胯了！ 除了比特币震荡走势造成不利影响外，coinbase在激烈的竞争中也受到了影响。比如根据Sensor 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有些人会觉得，大型AI股已经超买太久了，随着时间越来越接近美国大选，不确定性越来越强的情况下，科技股很可能出现重挫，并从此一蹶不振；但也有人觉得，AI还是未来很长一段时间里最重要的母题材，它所涉及的电力、芯片、云服务和AI应用等等从上到下的所有节点题材，都会上涨。 当然，无论哪种猜测，终归还是要看一个根本性的前提：AI的狂热需要买家，而现如今最重要的买家就是这些云服务厂商。是他们在支付大量的美元购买电力、芯片，组建庞大的计算中心，也是他们在用金钱投资于AI的应用，想让后者尽快成为社会的核心力量。 因此，看懂他们财报释放的信号，就能对AI时代的延续产生更明确的判断。 01&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;信号一：资本开支还会持续扩大 在看今年Q3财报之前，需要厘清一个问题，就是关于大科技公司的资本开支。在今年的Q2财报季，Pichai在谷歌业绩会上对AI带来的资本开支问题的回应，让整个市场吓了一大跳： “我认为我思考这个问题的方式是，当我们经历这样的曲线时，对我们来说，投资不足的风险远远大于投资过度的风险，即使在最终结果表明我们投资过多的情况下也是如此。” 这种来自业界龙头领导、含糊其辞却又非常负面的回答对于整个行业都是毁灭性的。它基本上引发了市场对科技巨头过度投资人工智能风险的担忧，这导致了谷歌随后被抛售，又影响了诸如微软、亚马逊等在内，以云服务业务为增长核心的企业，他们的股价在二季度之后大跌，至今仍未回归当时的高点。 时至今日，一个季度过去了，围绕资本开支的讨论和质疑没有消失，这种高强度的、甚至有些疯狂的资本开支扩张，仍然是市场对科技巨头最大的质疑。就像微软在业绩发布后经历的这样，即便","listText":"当地时间10月31日盘后，随着亚马逊发布了自己的财报，全球三大云服务厂商已经全部披露了第三季度的业绩，这三家企业作为整个AI大模型潮流中最重要的“大金主”，直接决定了整个AI链条的命运。 有些人会觉得，大型AI股已经超买太久了，随着时间越来越接近美国大选，不确定性越来越强的情况下，科技股很可能出现重挫，并从此一蹶不振；但也有人觉得，AI还是未来很长一段时间里最重要的母题材，它所涉及的电力、芯片、云服务和AI应用等等从上到下的所有节点题材，都会上涨。 当然，无论哪种猜测，终归还是要看一个根本性的前提：AI的狂热需要买家，而现如今最重要的买家就是这些云服务厂商。是他们在支付大量的美元购买电力、芯片，组建庞大的计算中心，也是他们在用金钱投资于AI的应用，想让后者尽快成为社会的核心力量。 因此，看懂他们财报释放的信号，就能对AI时代的延续产生更明确的判断。 01&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;信号一：资本开支还会持续扩大 在看今年Q3财报之前，需要厘清一个问题，就是关于大科技公司的资本开支。在今年的Q2财报季，Pichai在谷歌业绩会上对AI带来的资本开支问题的回应，让整个市场吓了一大跳： “我认为我思考这个问题的方式是，当我们经历这样的曲线时，对我们来说，投资不足的风险远远大于投资过度的风险，即使在最终结果表明我们投资过多的情况下也是如此。” 这种来自业界龙头领导、含糊其辞却又非常负面的回答对于整个行业都是毁灭性的。它基本上引发了市场对科技巨头过度投资人工智能风险的担忧，这导致了谷歌随后被抛售，又影响了诸如微软、亚马逊等在内，以云服务业务为增长核心的企业，他们的股价在二季度之后大跌，至今仍未回归当时的高点。 时至今日，一个季度过去了，围绕资本开支的讨论和质疑没有消失，这种高强度的、甚至有些疯狂的资本开支扩张，仍然是市场对科技巨头最大的质疑。就像微软在业绩发布后经历的这样，即便","text":"当地时间10月31日盘后，随着亚马逊发布了自己的财报，全球三大云服务厂商已经全部披露了第三季度的业绩，这三家企业作为整个AI大模型潮流中最重要的“大金主”，直接决定了整个AI链条的命运。 有些人会觉得，大型AI股已经超买太久了，随着时间越来越接近美国大选，不确定性越来越强的情况下，科技股很可能出现重挫，并从此一蹶不振；但也有人觉得，AI还是未来很长一段时间里最重要的母题材，它所涉及的电力、芯片、云服务和AI应用等等从上到下的所有节点题材，都会上涨。 当然，无论哪种猜测，终归还是要看一个根本性的前提：AI的狂热需要买家，而现如今最重要的买家就是这些云服务厂商。是他们在支付大量的美元购买电力、芯片，组建庞大的计算中心，也是他们在用金钱投资于AI的应用，想让后者尽快成为社会的核心力量。 因此，看懂他们财报释放的信号，就能对AI时代的延续产生更明确的判断。 01 信号一：资本开支还会持续扩大 在看今年Q3财报之前，需要厘清一个问题，就是关于大科技公司的资本开支。在今年的Q2财报季，Pichai在谷歌业绩会上对AI带来的资本开支问题的回应，让整个市场吓了一大跳： “我认为我思考这个问题的方式是，当我们经历这样的曲线时，对我们来说，投资不足的风险远远大于投资过度的风险，即使在最终结果表明我们投资过多的情况下也是如此。” 这种来自业界龙头领导、含糊其辞却又非常负面的回答对于整个行业都是毁灭性的。它基本上引发了市场对科技巨头过度投资人工智能风险的担忧，这导致了谷歌随后被抛售，又影响了诸如微软、亚马逊等在内，以云服务业务为增长核心的企业，他们的股价在二季度之后大跌，至今仍未回归当时的高点。 时至今日，一个季度过去了，围绕资本开支的讨论和质疑没有消失，这种高强度的、甚至有些疯狂的资本开支扩张，仍然是市场对科技巨头最大的质疑。就像微软在业绩发布后经历的这样，即便","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df8a1468b177433eb5337029cbc8874c","width":"1024","height":"1024"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367434974306504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":12,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366436479361336,"gmtCreate":1730503672234,"gmtModify":1730503674034,"author":{"id":"4178666217916582","authorId":"4178666217916582","name":"Kendrick 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