番茄爸爸的个人主页 - 老虎社区

番茄爸爸

番茄爸爸

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11-11

我开仓了1手$TSLA 20241115 310.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

07-18

我开仓了1手$TSLA 20240719 240.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

03-08

我开仓了1手$CRWD 20240315 290.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

03-08

$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$ 降息还有多远

03-08

$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$ 降息还有多远

02-07

我开仓了1手$FTNT 20240209 70.0 CALL$ ,财报前上50%仓位保护

01-27

我开仓了40.0股$特斯拉(TSLA)$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

2023-02-08

对的

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-12-09

。。。

观点 | MS的麻烦可能大了

2022-11-29

股债齐跌！美联储一夜“四鹰连击”，华尔街大惊失色

抱歉，原内容已删除

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>,来看看我最新分享的订单！","text":"我开仓了40.0股$特斯拉(TSLA)$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/267500316770592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":838,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622470635,"gmtCreate":1675841524527,"gmtModify":1675841863666,"author":{"id":"4128210519824020","authorId":"4128210519824020","name":"番茄爸爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79b8930a3fc48d72a6e29a8e926d606d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4128210519824020","authorIdStr":"4128210519824020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"对的","listText":"对的","text":"对的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622470635","repostId":"1173490226","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":629220843,"gmtCreate":1670558757982,"gmtModify":1670559399947,"author":{"id":"4128210519824020","authorId":"4128210519824020","name":"番茄爸爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79b8930a3fc48d72a6e29a8e926d606d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4128210519824020","authorIdStr":"4128210519824020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。。。","listText":"。。。","text":"。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629220843","repostId":"1195857461","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195857461","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670553644,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195857461?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-09 10:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"观点 | MS的麻烦可能大了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195857461","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"昨天晚些时候彭博发了这么一个消息，马斯克购买推特后面的银行财团（MS为首），正在考虑把马斯克的贷款给替换了，原来的利息太高。这样做的好处，是可以减少马斯克的负担。这个新闻表面上看上去平平无奇，但是逻辑","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>昨天晚些时候彭博发了这么一个消息，马斯克购买推特后面的银行财团（MS为首），正在考虑把马斯克的贷款给替换了，原来的利息太高。这样做的好处，是可以减少马斯克的负担。</p><p>这个新闻表面上看上去平平无奇，但是逻辑上却非常不对。银行不就靠着收利息赚钱吗，收的利息越高越好，什么时候突然想到为客户减轻负担，让自己少赚钱？下图是新闻截图。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1836dd4ad64a6fbf978703f82765162\" tg-width=\"542\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>根据这个新闻，马斯克现在每年的利息支出就是$12亿，这个比我之前的估计还多了$2亿。推特在马斯克手上就是个烫手的山芋，可以让世界首富变成世界首负。下面是我之前对推特收购案中的贷款的评论。</p><p><i>“马斯克一直对11月初卖股没有评论，也就暗示了他可能还会卖股。除了这些可能要退回的外国资金，马斯克收购中还有$130亿银行资金需要偿还，这是大头。目前美国的利率高企，所以这些贷款的年利息就会高达$10亿，再加上推特本身又是个赔钱的公司，所以马斯克现在拿着推特非常难受。屋漏偏逢连夜雨，广告商现在还纷纷退出推特，马斯克裁码农就能解决问题？应该是把问题越搞越大。”</i></p><p>现在回到核心问题，为什么MS要主动帮客户提出减轻利息支出？而且从彭博的新闻来看，MS的态度比马斯克更积极，更想推动给贷款降利息的工作，特别是去置换那部分没有抵押的贷款（$30亿）。（The discussions have so far focused on how to replace $3 billion of unsecured debt on which Twitter pays an interest rate of 11.75%）。</p><p>一切都很反常，银行想为了客户降息，客户却不着急（不然这事儿也用不着曝光，很快双方就应该定了）。我能想到的一个合理解释是这样——</p><p>马斯克的特斯拉股票质押率非常高，下表是之前的统计。MS和他的关系最好，所以很有可能这些股票的绝大部分都在MS。根据当前股价来看（每股$170，2020年等同于每股$510），他2020年就质押了大约$450亿，考虑到之前的股价更高，实际套现金额说不定更高，这是个非常大的数字。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baf49d907cff4d938d3cef8d8240f016\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>现在特斯拉股价已经回撤了50%，按照规定，MS必须要马斯克质押更多股票或者是让马斯克还钱。但MS接受的特斯拉股票质押可能已经太多，风控部门已经不允许马斯克继续质押股票了（想想当年乐视老板质押的股票），所以只能让马斯克还钱。但是马斯克现在是没钱的，要还钱就只能大量卖股票，而卖股票对于MS来说就是快速死亡，会触发一系列Margin Call。</p><p>所以MS现在和马斯克绑定到一条船上了，这件事情对于MS非常不好。MS现在只能祈求马斯克自己能够度过难关，特斯拉股价能够挺住，不然风控到了最后肯定会要求清仓。现在唯一能够帮助马斯克的，就是帮他债务负担减轻一点。MS要想办法，把那笔没有抵押的$30亿换成有抵押的$30亿，至少在极端情况下，有些资产可以追溯回来。现在这件事没谈下来，可能就是马斯克不同意用资产去质押贷款，即使利息便宜一些，死猪不怕开水烫的样子。</p><p>MS麻烦大了。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1635821181494","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>观点 | MS的麻烦可能大了</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n观点 | MS的麻烦可能大了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-09 10:40 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TnWqCOudhAzzghKEUDkblA><strong>老虎锐评</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>昨天晚些时候彭博发了这么一个消息，马斯克购买推特后面的银行财团（MS为首），正在考虑把马斯克的贷款给替换了，原来的利息太高。这样做的好处，是可以减少马斯克的负担。这个新闻表面上看上去平平无奇，但是逻辑上却非常不对。银行不就靠着收利息赚钱吗，收的利息越高越好，什么时候突然想到为客户减轻负担，让自己少赚钱？下图是新闻截图。根据这个新闻，马斯克现在每年的利息支出就是$12亿，这个比我之前的估计还多了$2...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TnWqCOudhAzzghKEUDkblA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2c0b8b70e62c31099a0930308087d87","relate_stocks":{"TWTR":"Twitter"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TnWqCOudhAzzghKEUDkblA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195857461","content_text":"昨天晚些时候彭博发了这么一个消息，马斯克购买推特后面的银行财团（MS为首），正在考虑把马斯克的贷款给替换了，原来的利息太高。这样做的好处，是可以减少马斯克的负担。这个新闻表面上看上去平平无奇，但是逻辑上却非常不对。银行不就靠着收利息赚钱吗，收的利息越高越好，什么时候突然想到为客户减轻负担，让自己少赚钱？下图是新闻截图。根据这个新闻，马斯克现在每年的利息支出就是$12亿，这个比我之前的估计还多了$2亿。推特在马斯克手上就是个烫手的山芋，可以让世界首富变成世界首负。下面是我之前对推特收购案中的贷款的评论。“马斯克一直对11月初卖股没有评论，也就暗示了他可能还会卖股。除了这些可能要退回的外国资金，马斯克收购中还有$130亿银行资金需要偿还，这是大头。目前美国的利率高企，所以这些贷款的年利息就会高达$10亿，再加上推特本身又是个赔钱的公司，所以马斯克现在拿着推特非常难受。屋漏偏逢连夜雨，广告商现在还纷纷退出推特，马斯克裁码农就能解决问题？应该是把问题越搞越大。”现在回到核心问题，为什么MS要主动帮客户提出减轻利息支出？而且从彭博的新闻来看，MS的态度比马斯克更积极，更想推动给贷款降利息的工作，特别是去置换那部分没有抵押的贷款（$30亿）。（The discussions have so far focused on how to replace $3 billion of unsecured debt on which Twitter pays an interest rate of 11.75%）。一切都很反常，银行想为了客户降息，客户却不着急（不然这事儿也用不着曝光，很快双方就应该定了）。我能想到的一个合理解释是这样——马斯克的特斯拉股票质押率非常高，下表是之前的统计。MS和他的关系最好，所以很有可能这些股票的绝大部分都在MS。根据当前股价来看（每股$170，2020年等同于每股$510），他2020年就质押了大约$450亿，考虑到之前的股价更高，实际套现金额说不定更高，这是个非常大的数字。现在特斯拉股价已经回撤了50%，按照规定，MS必须要马斯克质押更多股票或者是让马斯克还钱。但MS接受的特斯拉股票质押可能已经太多，风控部门已经不允许马斯克继续质押股票了（想想当年乐视老板质押的股票），所以只能让马斯克还钱。但是马斯克现在是没钱的，要还钱就只能大量卖股票，而卖股票对于MS来说就是快速死亡，会触发一系列Margin Call。所以MS现在和马斯克绑定到一条船上了，这件事情对于MS非常不好。MS现在只能祈求马斯克自己能够度过难关，特斯拉股价能够挺住，不然风控到了最后肯定会要求清仓。现在唯一能够帮助马斯克的，就是帮他债务负担减轻一点。MS要想办法，把那笔没有抵押的$30亿换成有抵押的$30亿，至少在极端情况下，有些资产可以追溯回来。现在这件事没谈下来，可能就是马斯克不同意用资产去质押贷款，即使利息便宜一些，死猪不怕开水烫的样子。MS麻烦大了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":620874558,"gmtCreate":1669695398574,"gmtModify":1669695747507,"author":{"id":"4128210519824020","authorId":"4128210519824020","name":"番茄爸爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79b8930a3fc48d72a6e29a8e926d606d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4128210519824020","authorIdStr":"4128210519824020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"股债齐跌！美联储一夜“四鹰连击”，华尔街大惊失色","listText":"股债齐跌！美联储一夜“四鹰连击”，华尔街大惊失色","text":"股债齐跌！美联储一夜“四鹰连击”，华尔街大惊失色","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/620874558","repostId":"1121464484","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":620874558,"gmtCreate":1669695398574,"gmtModify":1669695747507,"author":{"id":"4128210519824020","authorId":"4128210519824020","name":"番茄爸爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79b8930a3fc48d72a6e29a8e926d606d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4128210519824020","authorIdStr":"4128210519824020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"股债齐跌！美联储一夜“四鹰连击”，华尔街大惊失色","listText":"股债齐跌！美联储一夜“四鹰连击”，华尔街大惊失色","text":"股债齐跌！美联储一夜“四鹰连击”，华尔街大惊失色","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/620874558","repostId":"1121464484","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":281958348607696,"gmtCreate":1709865997154,"gmtModify":1709865999930,"author":{"id":"4128210519824020","authorId":"4128210519824020","name":"番茄爸爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79b8930a3fc48d72a6e29a8e926d606d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4128210519824020","authorIdStr":"4128210519824020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TMF\">$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$ </a> 降息还有多远","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TMF\">$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$ </a> 降息还有多远","text":"$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$ 降息还有多远","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72c8c0564cea2ce7746b81e1a37d5a6d","width":"954","height":"1608"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/281958348607696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":629220843,"gmtCreate":1670558757982,"gmtModify":1670559399947,"author":{"id":"4128210519824020","authorId":"4128210519824020","name":"番茄爸爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79b8930a3fc48d72a6e29a8e926d606d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4128210519824020","authorIdStr":"4128210519824020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。。。","listText":"。。。","text":"。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629220843","repostId":"1195857461","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195857461","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670553644,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195857461?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-09 10:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"观点 | MS的麻烦可能大了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195857461","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"昨天晚些时候彭博发了这么一个消息，马斯克购买推特后面的银行财团（MS为首），正在考虑把马斯克的贷款给替换了，原来的利息太高。这样做的好处，是可以减少马斯克的负担。这个新闻表面上看上去平平无奇，但是逻辑","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>昨天晚些时候彭博发了这么一个消息，马斯克购买推特后面的银行财团（MS为首），正在考虑把马斯克的贷款给替换了，原来的利息太高。这样做的好处，是可以减少马斯克的负担。</p><p>这个新闻表面上看上去平平无奇，但是逻辑上却非常不对。银行不就靠着收利息赚钱吗，收的利息越高越好，什么时候突然想到为客户减轻负担，让自己少赚钱？下图是新闻截图。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1836dd4ad64a6fbf978703f82765162\" tg-width=\"542\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>根据这个新闻，马斯克现在每年的利息支出就是$12亿，这个比我之前的估计还多了$2亿。推特在马斯克手上就是个烫手的山芋，可以让世界首富变成世界首负。下面是我之前对推特收购案中的贷款的评论。</p><p><i>“马斯克一直对11月初卖股没有评论，也就暗示了他可能还会卖股。除了这些可能要退回的外国资金，马斯克收购中还有$130亿银行资金需要偿还，这是大头。目前美国的利率高企，所以这些贷款的年利息就会高达$10亿，再加上推特本身又是个赔钱的公司，所以马斯克现在拿着推特非常难受。屋漏偏逢连夜雨，广告商现在还纷纷退出推特，马斯克裁码农就能解决问题？应该是把问题越搞越大。”</i></p><p>现在回到核心问题，为什么MS要主动帮客户提出减轻利息支出？而且从彭博的新闻来看，MS的态度比马斯克更积极，更想推动给贷款降利息的工作，特别是去置换那部分没有抵押的贷款（$30亿）。（The discussions have so far focused on how to replace $3 billion of unsecured debt on which Twitter pays an interest rate of 11.75%）。</p><p>一切都很反常，银行想为了客户降息，客户却不着急（不然这事儿也用不着曝光，很快双方就应该定了）。我能想到的一个合理解释是这样——</p><p>马斯克的特斯拉股票质押率非常高，下表是之前的统计。MS和他的关系最好，所以很有可能这些股票的绝大部分都在MS。根据当前股价来看（每股$170，2020年等同于每股$510），他2020年就质押了大约$450亿，考虑到之前的股价更高，实际套现金额说不定更高，这是个非常大的数字。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baf49d907cff4d938d3cef8d8240f016\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>现在特斯拉股价已经回撤了50%，按照规定，MS必须要马斯克质押更多股票或者是让马斯克还钱。但MS接受的特斯拉股票质押可能已经太多，风控部门已经不允许马斯克继续质押股票了（想想当年乐视老板质押的股票），所以只能让马斯克还钱。但是马斯克现在是没钱的，要还钱就只能大量卖股票，而卖股票对于MS来说就是快速死亡，会触发一系列Margin Call。</p><p>所以MS现在和马斯克绑定到一条船上了，这件事情对于MS非常不好。MS现在只能祈求马斯克自己能够度过难关，特斯拉股价能够挺住，不然风控到了最后肯定会要求清仓。现在唯一能够帮助马斯克的，就是帮他债务负担减轻一点。MS要想办法，把那笔没有抵押的$30亿换成有抵押的$30亿，至少在极端情况下，有些资产可以追溯回来。现在这件事没谈下来，可能就是马斯克不同意用资产去质押贷款，即使利息便宜一些，死猪不怕开水烫的样子。</p><p>MS麻烦大了。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1635821181494","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>观点 | MS的麻烦可能大了</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n观点 | MS的麻烦可能大了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-09 10:40 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TnWqCOudhAzzghKEUDkblA><strong>老虎锐评</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>昨天晚些时候彭博发了这么一个消息，马斯克购买推特后面的银行财团（MS为首），正在考虑把马斯克的贷款给替换了，原来的利息太高。这样做的好处，是可以减少马斯克的负担。这个新闻表面上看上去平平无奇，但是逻辑上却非常不对。银行不就靠着收利息赚钱吗，收的利息越高越好，什么时候突然想到为客户减轻负担，让自己少赚钱？下图是新闻截图。根据这个新闻，马斯克现在每年的利息支出就是$12亿，这个比我之前的估计还多了$2...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TnWqCOudhAzzghKEUDkblA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2c0b8b70e62c31099a0930308087d87","relate_stocks":{"TWTR":"Twitter"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TnWqCOudhAzzghKEUDkblA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195857461","content_text":"昨天晚些时候彭博发了这么一个消息，马斯克购买推特后面的银行财团（MS为首），正在考虑把马斯克的贷款给替换了，原来的利息太高。这样做的好处，是可以减少马斯克的负担。这个新闻表面上看上去平平无奇，但是逻辑上却非常不对。银行不就靠着收利息赚钱吗，收的利息越高越好，什么时候突然想到为客户减轻负担，让自己少赚钱？下图是新闻截图。根据这个新闻，马斯克现在每年的利息支出就是$12亿，这个比我之前的估计还多了$2亿。推特在马斯克手上就是个烫手的山芋，可以让世界首富变成世界首负。下面是我之前对推特收购案中的贷款的评论。“马斯克一直对11月初卖股没有评论，也就暗示了他可能还会卖股。除了这些可能要退回的外国资金，马斯克收购中还有$130亿银行资金需要偿还，这是大头。目前美国的利率高企，所以这些贷款的年利息就会高达$10亿，再加上推特本身又是个赔钱的公司，所以马斯克现在拿着推特非常难受。屋漏偏逢连夜雨，广告商现在还纷纷退出推特，马斯克裁码农就能解决问题？应该是把问题越搞越大。”现在回到核心问题，为什么MS要主动帮客户提出减轻利息支出？而且从彭博的新闻来看，MS的态度比马斯克更积极，更想推动给贷款降利息的工作，特别是去置换那部分没有抵押的贷款（$30亿）。（The discussions have so far focused on how to replace $3 billion of unsecured debt on which Twitter pays an interest rate of 11.75%）。一切都很反常，银行想为了客户降息，客户却不着急（不然这事儿也用不着曝光，很快双方就应该定了）。我能想到的一个合理解释是这样——马斯克的特斯拉股票质押率非常高，下表是之前的统计。MS和他的关系最好，所以很有可能这些股票的绝大部分都在MS。根据当前股价来看（每股$170，2020年等同于每股$510），他2020年就质押了大约$450亿，考虑到之前的股价更高，实际套现金额说不定更高，这是个非常大的数字。现在特斯拉股价已经回撤了50%，按照规定，MS必须要马斯克质押更多股票或者是让马斯克还钱。但MS接受的特斯拉股票质押可能已经太多，风控部门已经不允许马斯克继续质押股票了（想想当年乐视老板质押的股票），所以只能让马斯克还钱。但是马斯克现在是没钱的，要还钱就只能大量卖股票，而卖股票对于MS来说就是快速死亡，会触发一系列Margin Call。所以MS现在和马斯克绑定到一条船上了，这件事情对于MS非常不好。MS现在只能祈求马斯克自己能够度过难关，特斯拉股价能够挺住，不然风控到了最后肯定会要求清仓。现在唯一能够帮助马斯克的，就是帮他债务负担减轻一点。MS要想办法，把那笔没有抵押的$30亿换成有抵押的$30亿，至少在极端情况下，有些资产可以追溯回来。现在这件事没谈下来，可能就是马斯克不同意用资产去质押贷款，即使利息便宜一些，死猪不怕开水烫的样子。MS麻烦大了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369950766932152,"gmtCreate":1731337604543,"gmtModify":1731831071178,"author":{"id":"4128210519824020","authorId":"4128210519824020","name":"番茄爸爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79b8930a3fc48d72a6e29a8e926d606d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4128210519824020","authorIdStr":"4128210519824020"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了1手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20241115 310.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20241115 310.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,来看看我最新分享的订单！","listText":"我开仓了1手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20241115 310.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20241115 310.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,来看看我最新分享的订单！","text":"我开仓了1手$TSLA 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