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一个了不起的故事

一个了不起的故事

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IP属地：浙江

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4主题

0勋章

一个了不起的故事

06-28

$亿航智能(EH)$ 套牢盘这么多，拉升要洗几年？

一个了不起的故事

06-25

$亿航智能(EH)$ 当时是什么原因涨到129的？有哪位家人知道

一个了不起的故事

06-21

$易点云(02416)$ 是不是要成仙股了？

一个了不起的故事

06-18

竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王

查看详情：竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王快来参与实盘竞猜活动，寻找你心中的收益王者，竞猜最高可获得USD 500代金券奖励。此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户

竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王

一个了不起的故事

06-18

$亿航智能(EH)$ 注意市值管理啊，大哥！这么跌哪里还有人气😡

一个了不起的故事

06-13

$房多多(DUO)$ 我靠！什么情况？这么拉升

一个了不起的故事

06-12

$亿航智能(EH)$ 故事讲起来啊，妈的半死不活！

一个了不起的故事

06-11

$亿航智能(EH)$ 为什么会跌成这样？

一个了不起的故事

06-06

$蔚来(NIO)$ 这一下要到3块以下了

一个了不起的故事

06-05

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 老虎的尿性就是财报后高开低走

一个了不起的故事

06-03

$游戏驿站(GME)$ 晒图出货[冷漠]

一个了不起的故事

06-03

$优博控股(08529)$ 这走势，真拉稀

一个了不起的故事

05-31

$优博控股(08529)$ 申购这么火爆，暗盘的表现就这样？

一个了不起的故事

05-30

$戴尔(DELL)$ 财报应该拉稀了，，，回归100元以下

一个了不起的故事

05-24

$哔哩哔哩-W(09626)$ 跌回8块，我再嗦[财迷]

一个了不起的故事

05-21

$XPEV 20240621 10.0 PUT$ 空一[财迷]

一个了不起的故事

05-21

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ 空一个

一个了不起的故事

05-21

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ 空一个[财迷]

一个了不起的故事

05-20

不知道哪个大浑蛋挂的[无语]

一个了不起的故事

05-20

$亿航智能(EH)$ 今天我判定为洗盘！拿好筹码坐等扶摇而上😎

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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6月5日</span></p><p>瑞幸咖啡今日宣布在中国的门店达到1万家，成为全国首个达成万店规模的连锁咖啡品牌。</p><p>瑞幸咖啡董事长兼CEO郭谨一说，从财务暴雷的生死边缘到出海新加坡、第一万家门店落地，新瑞幸用三年时间打了一场漂亮的翻身仗。过去三年，是生椰拿铁、生酪拿铁、碧螺知春拿铁等瑞幸爆款饮品闯入消费者生活的三年，也是瑞幸咖啡新一任管理层带领公司脱胎换骨、涅槃重生的三年。</p><p>“从至暗时刻到革新鼎新、全面新生、瑞幸取得的成绩离不开5万名合作伙伴的辛苦付出。”郭谨一说，风雨同路的日子，每一份努力和坚守都值得铭记，今日的辉煌与成就，都将化成明天继续努力向前的动力。</p><p>郭谨一还表示，“万店”是瑞幸的里程碑，也是新起点，要全力以赴把瑞幸咖啡打造成一个基业长青的百年品牌，努力实现公司业绩的长期、健康、高速可持续发展。</p><p>财报显示，截至2023年3月31日，瑞幸咖啡第一季度总净收入为44.367亿元，较上年同期的24亿元增长84.5%。</p><p>瑞幸咖啡2023年第一季度净利为5.65亿元，上年同期的净利为1980万元；Non-GAAP下净利为6.17亿元，Non-GAAP下净利率为13.9%。</p><p><img image_type=\"1\" img_=\"\" mime_type=\"image/jpeg\" src=\"https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-qvj2lq49k0/dacc5a77199d4afdb4d1952425dc1813~noop.image?_iz=58558&amp;from=article.pc_detail&amp;x-expires=1686538884&amp;x-signature=DejRJrbxqbcLsEphW22CZV%2BB3MA%3D\" web_uri=\"tos-cn-i-qvj2lq49k0/dacc5a77199d4afdb4d1952425dc1813\"/></p><p>截至2023年3月31日，瑞幸咖啡持有的现金、现金等价物、受限制现金、短期投资为43.86亿元（约6.39亿美元）。</p><p><span><span>———————————————</span></span></p><p><span><span>雷递由媒体人雷建平创办，若转载请写明来源。</span></span></p></body></html>","source":"leinews_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>瑞幸门店达万家 郭谨一：我们用三年时间打了场漂亮翻身仗</title>\n<style 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6月5日瑞幸咖啡今日宣布在中国的门店达到1万家，成为全国首个达成万店规模的连锁咖啡品牌。瑞幸咖啡董事长兼CEO郭谨一说，从财务暴雷的生死边缘到出海新加坡、第一万家门店落地，新瑞幸用三年时间打了一场漂亮的翻身仗。过去三年，是生椰拿铁、生酪拿铁、碧螺知春拿铁等瑞幸爆款饮品闯入消费者生活的三年，也是瑞幸咖啡新一任管理层带领公司脱胎换骨、涅槃重生的三年。“从至暗时刻到革新鼎新、全面新生、瑞幸...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.leinews.com/Common/YiAPP.ashx?YiAPP_Method=uNews.PC_GetNewsInfo&YiAPP_Action=YiAPP.APP.SHOP&YiAPP_SIKW=true\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://leidinews-1256465536.cos.ap-chengdu.myqcloud.com/u_News/20230605/6382155979500038206517831.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4209":"餐馆","LKNCY":"瑞幸咖啡"},"source_url":"https://www.leinews.com/Common/YiAPP.ashx?YiAPP_Method=uNews.PC_GetNewsInfo&YiAPP_Action=YiAPP.APP.SHOP&YiAPP_SIKW=true","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2341018319","content_text":"雷递网 乐天 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管理层没参与就不用承担责任了？投资人的损失谁来承担？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/281370737856816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":957,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3458269085914905","authorId":"3458269085914905","name":"redhu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adb180db8f9d3ca679e8ab39c89f5324","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"股价涨到3块3以上就算了。","text":"股价涨到3块3以上就算了。","html":"股价涨到3块3以上就算了。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":204582926557432,"gmtCreate":1690978340222,"gmtModify":1690978342508,"author":{"id":"4120360017010400","authorId":"4120360017010400","name":"一个了不起的故事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ee8ea6bdd1c0b0dad01fd85a077f35e","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有没有可能库迪和瑞幸打架，把星巴克弄死了。就像百事可乐Vs可口可乐，麦当劳Vs肯德基，王老吉Vs加多宝[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"有没有可能库迪和瑞幸打架，把星巴克弄死了。就像百事可乐Vs可口可乐，麦当劳Vs肯德基，王老吉Vs加多宝[开心]&nbsp;","text":"有没有可能库迪和瑞幸打架，把星巴克弄死了。就像百事可乐Vs可口可乐，麦当劳Vs肯德基，王老吉Vs加多宝[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/204582926557432","repostId":"1172647741","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1172647741","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1690958523,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172647741?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-08-02 14:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"与库迪的价格战，让瑞幸又赢一把","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172647741","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"今年上半年，咖啡市场上最精彩的一仗，莫过于瑞幸与其前创始人陆正耀创立的“库迪咖啡”之间的价格战。与之前市场普遍担心价格战侵蚀业绩不同，瑞幸在昨晚交出了一份炸裂的二季度业绩报告。6月份，瑞幸付费用户数突破5000万，创下新高。为了吸纳库迪、幸运咖的现有用户，瑞幸今年还做了一件事。与此同时，超低价格让库迪的加盟商利润微乎其微，回本无期，加盟意愿下降。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>预期反转，瑞幸交出炸裂业绩。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>今年上半年，咖啡市场上最精彩的一仗，莫过于瑞幸与其前创始人陆正耀创立的“库迪咖啡”之间的价格战。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">年初，库迪推出全产品9.9元促销活动。还没过多久，一到5月，又以“夏日降价”为名，再次启动9.9元大促销。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在竞争激烈的咖啡市场上，别人在降价，你不降价，就随时面临市场份额被抢夺的风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当库迪可以提供9.9元的生椰拿铁，消费者又为何一定要执着于15元的瑞幸生椰拿铁?</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">面对竞争对手的频频降价，瑞幸终于也抵不住压力，在5月推出了每周可领一次的9.9元优惠券。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这场你来我往的价格战持续引发市场关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">降价无疑能吸引更多消费者，但价格的持续掏底，也令人担忧盈利能力，9.9元甚至1元的咖啡，还能赚多少钱呢？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>与之前市场普遍担心价格战侵蚀业绩不同，瑞幸在昨晚交出了一份炸裂的二季度业绩报告。</strong></p><blockquote>Q2营收62.014亿元，yoy+88.0%；其中自营门店收入44.953亿元，yoy+85.2%，加盟店业务收入14.858亿元，yoy+91.1%。</blockquote><blockquote>GAAP经营利润率18.9%；Non-GAAP经营利润率19.9%；GAAP净利润9.987亿元，对应净利率16.1%，达历史新高；</blockquote><blockquote>Non-GAAP净利润10.622亿元，对应净利率17.1%，成为公司最好单季度利润表现。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>本期财报亮点：</strong></p><ul><li><p><strong>“价格战”下交出最强业绩</strong>，9.9元优惠券对交易量带动强劲，付费用户数创新高。</p></li><li><p><strong>低价丝毫不影响盈利能力</strong>，10.622亿元的净利润创下<strong>公司最好的单季度利润表现，大超市场预期。</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>门店数量提前破万，强大规模效应带来成本管控能力开始显现，成后进者无法逾越的高墙。</strong></p></li></ul><p><strong>在“价格战”下交出最强业绩</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><u>尽管一提到“价格战”，大家的第一反应是“激烈博弈、互相降价、利润减少”,但它确实也给瑞幸带来了“好处”，最肉眼可见的就是，被低价吸引，买瑞幸咖啡的人明显增多了。</u></strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">自5月开始，瑞幸推出一周可领一次的9.9元优惠券以来，首周就售出3900万杯，首月会员数突破5000万。6月份，瑞幸付费用户数突破5000万，创下新高。整个二季度<strong>平均付费用户达4310万，同比大增107.9%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这组无疑揭露出<strong>降价对交易量的强劲带动作用。</strong>与之产生鲜明对比的是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>去年在激烈竞争中交易量下滑20%后，为挽回市场，派发更多代金券进行变相降价，结果客单价继续下滑的同时，交易量也仅仅增加了4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b387ae4eccbb9666cbc07adba010532\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">主要的原因就在，瑞幸定位大众化，星巴克定位高端，本身消费者对两者价格变化的敏感度就不同。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同时两者在降价范围和深度上也有差异，瑞幸将全部产品降至9.9元，星巴克仅对部分产品优惠，且幅度较小，像近期的夏日活动两杯37元，单杯都相当于瑞幸降价前的价格了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更为关键的是，两者在中国的品牌影响力已截然不同。2018年，星巴克市占率45%，瑞幸仅2%。但从2022年上半年，两者已基本持平，充分证明<strong>瑞幸咖啡在中国的飞速成长，也正因如此，瑞幸才能在保证产品力的前提下，通过降价成功打开市场，拉动更多用户。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><u>此前让市场担心的客单价下降，会影响盈利能力的情况，也完全没有发生。</u></strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报中披露，近10亿的<strong>净利润创下了瑞幸单季最佳表现，利润率也环比提升了6个百分点。</strong>从门店经营数据来看，同店销售额增长率达20.8%，门店利润率达29.1%，均已回归到2022年三季度的水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">见智研究认为可以从两个方面去分析：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一方面，每周一次的<strong>9.9元优惠对利润率的负面影响有限</strong>，因为它能帮助瑞幸吸引新用户，培养用户购买习惯，提高复购率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>即使客单价有所下降，但门店杯量提升带来的营收增长，能抵消一部分客单价下滑的影响，同时净利润也随着收入规模的扩大而水涨船高。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">接下来三季度又是旺季，7月的杯量必定会比6月再有所提升。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另一方面，瑞幸之前接近三分之一都是外送业务，配送成本是需要和消费者共通分摊，而9.9元活动<strong>必须到店消费，也是变相降低了瑞幸这部分的成本支出。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>可以说，瑞幸的降价一开始还被市场解读为迎战库迪“迫于无奈的做法”，但现在的情况完全相反，价格战反而是证明了瑞幸强大的实力。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">虽然二季度瑞幸整体还未全面启动9.9元活动，但从4月开始，周边的库迪店已经开始每天9.9元大促销了，结果瑞幸业绩竟完全不受影响，也能在一定程度上说明<strong>价格战已经打到顶点。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">反转的一幕不但让市场大为吃惊，也不禁也让人发出灵魂拷问：库迪都已经价格战打到底线了，还无法对瑞幸的业绩造成实质冲击，未来还能怎么影响瑞幸的龙头地位？</p><p><strong>规模和营运水平是最大的护城河</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>由此一战，一直以来悬在瑞幸头上的标签“没有护城河”也可以彻底摘掉了。瑞幸用实力证明，规模和运营水平本身就是最大的护城河。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们看到瑞幸的拓店速度非常快，已经提前实现了开设1万家门店的目标。截至二季度末，瑞幸门店总数达到10836家，其中自营门店7188家，联营门店3648家，正式成为中国市场首个门店数量突破1万的连锁咖啡品牌。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于瑞幸本季度营收、净利润双双亮眼表现，现任CEO郭谨一在业绩发布会上直言，是公司业务<strong>“规模优势的体现”</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">正如见智研究在《生椰拿铁可以被复制，但瑞幸能被复制吗?》多次分析，<strong>想要进入咖啡市场，做出类似“生椰拿铁”口味的产品并不难。瑞幸之所以不能被复制，规模才是更深广的护城河。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a5156362e297460eb01b23c18e00e5\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"352\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在规模效应之下，报告期内，瑞幸一般管理费用率同比改善了3.5个百分点，租金费用率同比改善1.6个百分点，减值及拨备率同比改善7.1个百分点，<strong>运营效率整体得到提升。这也是瑞幸能够承受价格战压力，推出9.9元活动的关键所在。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">瑞幸以优秀的业绩证明，<strong>规模本身可构成强大护城河，转化为成本优势和用户黏性，从而提升抵御价格战的能力。彻底打破了此前市场对于“咖啡赛道无护城河”的误解。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><u>但我们也都知道，快速拓店这件事是有利有弊的。利的是可以享受规模效应带来的成本管控能力，弊的是若没有足够的增量，就会稀释现有门店的客户流量。</u></strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">换句话说，瑞幸既要大幅搞扩张，又不希望稀释现有门店的客流，就必须要有新增用户源不断补充，那么这些新增客户从何而来呢？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>一个是万店9.9元活动直接吸引的新用户；另一个就是低价格带上的品牌库迪、幸运咖的现有用户。可以说，瑞幸举起了“屠刀”，一刀砍向自己，一刀砍向了友商。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">为了吸纳库迪、幸运咖的现有用户，瑞幸今年还做了一件事。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在5月29日，瑞幸咖啡通过公众号宣布开启“带店加盟”模式，允许竞争对手的加盟店翻牌加入瑞幸阵营。它还向加盟商额外补贴1元，既稳定现有加盟商，也吸引其他加盟商跟进。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">要知道此前<strong>行业内无人能提供10.9元的条件，若加盟商一旦翻牌，身边的店铺也有可能产生连锁反应，预计会有大量竞争店铺翻牌成为瑞幸门店。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><u>瑞幸这样的策略无疑给新进入者带来巨大压力，如果没有足够的规模效应和成本管控，很容易陷入杯量和客单价两难的困境。</u></strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">以库迪为例，根据业内人士的计算，每杯9.9元咖啡，毛利不到4块，要达到门店盈亏平衡点，每天需要售出300杯左右，这样每个月的现金流仅有900万，远远不能支撑快速扩张。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，库迪必须依靠加快开店速度才能获得融资支持各项运营，这也解释了库迪为什么在7月底喊出5000家门店的目标，因为不这样做就无力填补资金缺口。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，超低价格让库迪的加盟商利润微乎其微，回本无期，加盟意愿下降。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这让库迪面临两难：必须提价才能获利，但提价则会降低杯量，削弱加盟吸引力。更要命的是，瑞幸推出的每周9.9元活动让库迪无力再反击，本来想通过新店促销后提价获利的加盟商，现在只能继续陪跑价格战。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这些新进入者在快速扩张过程中，也曾暴露出许多加盟品牌共性的问题，比如选址缺乏区域保护导致店间抢客，人员培训不足使品控不稳定，全加盟模式下加盟商素质参差，为节约成本出现诸多运营乱象。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">种种问题叠加，<strong>扩张速度难免让人担忧其管理水平匹配度。</strong></p><p><strong>总结</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">为何今天中国咖啡市场会聚焦在10-15元这个价格区间，消费者的选择从星巴克转向瑞幸、库迪？这是因为广大消费者对这个价位的产品有需求，瑞幸抓住了这一机遇，用低价切入市场直接抢走了星巴克的份额。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同理，如果库迪坚持打9.9元的价格战，而瑞幸不作出应对，也极可能流失部分市场，这一战无法避免。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">咖啡市场本身进入门槛确实不高，规模效应带来的成本优势才是最重要的护城河，为消费者提供更实惠的产品，保证市场占有率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着瑞幸的最新业绩亮相，以及新进入者面临的困境显露，让市场逐渐看清了这一点。单靠低价疯狂开店是远远不够的，“价格战”还得凭实力说话。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>与库迪的价格战，让瑞幸又赢一把</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n与库迪的价格战，让瑞幸又赢一把\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2023-08-02 14:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>预期反转，瑞幸交出炸裂业绩。今年上半年，咖啡市场上最精彩的一仗，莫过于瑞幸与其前创始人陆正耀创立的“库迪咖啡”之间的价格战。年初，库迪推出全产品9.9元促销活动。还没过多久，一到5月，又以“夏日降价”为名，再次启动9.9元大促销。在竞争激烈的咖啡市场上，别人在降价，你不降价，就随时面临市场份额被抢夺的风险。当库迪可以提供9.9元的生椰拿铁，消费者又为何一定要执着于15元的瑞幸生椰拿铁?面对竞争对手...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9c33d568670903493bfffd7f24eb14e","relate_stocks":{"LKNCY":"瑞幸咖啡"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172647741","content_text":"预期反转，瑞幸交出炸裂业绩。今年上半年，咖啡市场上最精彩的一仗，莫过于瑞幸与其前创始人陆正耀创立的“库迪咖啡”之间的价格战。年初，库迪推出全产品9.9元促销活动。还没过多久，一到5月，又以“夏日降价”为名，再次启动9.9元大促销。在竞争激烈的咖啡市场上，别人在降价，你不降价，就随时面临市场份额被抢夺的风险。当库迪可以提供9.9元的生椰拿铁，消费者又为何一定要执着于15元的瑞幸生椰拿铁?面对竞争对手的频频降价，瑞幸终于也抵不住压力，在5月推出了每周可领一次的9.9元优惠券。这场你来我往的价格战持续引发市场关注。降价无疑能吸引更多消费者，但价格的持续掏底，也令人担忧盈利能力，9.9元甚至1元的咖啡，还能赚多少钱呢？与之前市场普遍担心价格战侵蚀业绩不同，瑞幸在昨晚交出了一份炸裂的二季度业绩报告。Q2营收62.014亿元，yoy+88.0%；其中自营门店收入44.953亿元，yoy+85.2%，加盟店业务收入14.858亿元，yoy+91.1%。GAAP经营利润率18.9%；Non-GAAP经营利润率19.9%；GAAP净利润9.987亿元，对应净利率16.1%，达历史新高；Non-GAAP净利润10.622亿元，对应净利率17.1%，成为公司最好单季度利润表现。本期财报亮点：“价格战”下交出最强业绩，9.9元优惠券对交易量带动强劲，付费用户数创新高。低价丝毫不影响盈利能力，10.622亿元的净利润创下公司最好的单季度利润表现，大超市场预期。门店数量提前破万，强大规模效应带来成本管控能力开始显现，成后进者无法逾越的高墙。在“价格战”下交出最强业绩尽管一提到“价格战”，大家的第一反应是“激烈博弈、互相降价、利润减少”,但它确实也给瑞幸带来了“好处”，最肉眼可见的就是，被低价吸引，买瑞幸咖啡的人明显增多了。自5月开始，瑞幸推出一周可领一次的9.9元优惠券以来，首周就售出3900万杯，首月会员数突破5000万。6月份，瑞幸付费用户数突破5000万，创下新高。整个二季度平均付费用户达4310万，同比大增107.9%。这组无疑揭露出降价对交易量的强劲带动作用。与之产生鲜明对比的是，星巴克去年在激烈竞争中交易量下滑20%后，为挽回市场，派发更多代金券进行变相降价，结果客单价继续下滑的同时，交易量也仅仅增加了4%。主要的原因就在，瑞幸定位大众化，星巴克定位高端，本身消费者对两者价格变化的敏感度就不同。同时两者在降价范围和深度上也有差异，瑞幸将全部产品降至9.9元，星巴克仅对部分产品优惠，且幅度较小，像近期的夏日活动两杯37元，单杯都相当于瑞幸降价前的价格了。更为关键的是，两者在中国的品牌影响力已截然不同。2018年，星巴克市占率45%，瑞幸仅2%。但从2022年上半年，两者已基本持平，充分证明瑞幸咖啡在中国的飞速成长，也正因如此，瑞幸才能在保证产品力的前提下，通过降价成功打开市场，拉动更多用户。此前让市场担心的客单价下降，会影响盈利能力的情况，也完全没有发生。财报中披露，近10亿的净利润创下了瑞幸单季最佳表现，利润率也环比提升了6个百分点。从门店经营数据来看，同店销售额增长率达20.8%，门店利润率达29.1%，均已回归到2022年三季度的水平。见智研究认为可以从两个方面去分析：一方面，每周一次的9.9元优惠对利润率的负面影响有限，因为它能帮助瑞幸吸引新用户，培养用户购买习惯，提高复购率。即使客单价有所下降，但门店杯量提升带来的营收增长，能抵消一部分客单价下滑的影响，同时净利润也随着收入规模的扩大而水涨船高。接下来三季度又是旺季，7月的杯量必定会比6月再有所提升。另一方面，瑞幸之前接近三分之一都是外送业务，配送成本是需要和消费者共通分摊，而9.9元活动必须到店消费，也是变相降低了瑞幸这部分的成本支出。可以说，瑞幸的降价一开始还被市场解读为迎战库迪“迫于无奈的做法”，但现在的情况完全相反，价格战反而是证明了瑞幸强大的实力。虽然二季度瑞幸整体还未全面启动9.9元活动，但从4月开始，周边的库迪店已经开始每天9.9元大促销了，结果瑞幸业绩竟完全不受影响，也能在一定程度上说明价格战已经打到顶点。反转的一幕不但让市场大为吃惊，也不禁也让人发出灵魂拷问：库迪都已经价格战打到底线了，还无法对瑞幸的业绩造成实质冲击，未来还能怎么影响瑞幸的龙头地位？规模和营运水平是最大的护城河由此一战，一直以来悬在瑞幸头上的标签“没有护城河”也可以彻底摘掉了。瑞幸用实力证明，规模和运营水平本身就是最大的护城河。我们看到瑞幸的拓店速度非常快，已经提前实现了开设1万家门店的目标。截至二季度末，瑞幸门店总数达到10836家，其中自营门店7188家，联营门店3648家，正式成为中国市场首个门店数量突破1万的连锁咖啡品牌。对于瑞幸本季度营收、净利润双双亮眼表现，现任CEO郭谨一在业绩发布会上直言，是公司业务“规模优势的体现”。正如见智研究在《生椰拿铁可以被复制，但瑞幸能被复制吗?》多次分析，想要进入咖啡市场，做出类似“生椰拿铁”口味的产品并不难。瑞幸之所以不能被复制，规模才是更深广的护城河。在规模效应之下，报告期内，瑞幸一般管理费用率同比改善了3.5个百分点，租金费用率同比改善1.6个百分点，减值及拨备率同比改善7.1个百分点，运营效率整体得到提升。这也是瑞幸能够承受价格战压力，推出9.9元活动的关键所在。瑞幸以优秀的业绩证明，规模本身可构成强大护城河，转化为成本优势和用户黏性，从而提升抵御价格战的能力。彻底打破了此前市场对于“咖啡赛道无护城河”的误解。但我们也都知道，快速拓店这件事是有利有弊的。利的是可以享受规模效应带来的成本管控能力，弊的是若没有足够的增量，就会稀释现有门店的客户流量。换句话说，瑞幸既要大幅搞扩张，又不希望稀释现有门店的客流，就必须要有新增用户源不断补充，那么这些新增客户从何而来呢？一个是万店9.9元活动直接吸引的新用户；另一个就是低价格带上的品牌库迪、幸运咖的现有用户。可以说，瑞幸举起了“屠刀”，一刀砍向自己，一刀砍向了友商。为了吸纳库迪、幸运咖的现有用户，瑞幸今年还做了一件事。在5月29日，瑞幸咖啡通过公众号宣布开启“带店加盟”模式，允许竞争对手的加盟店翻牌加入瑞幸阵营。它还向加盟商额外补贴1元，既稳定现有加盟商，也吸引其他加盟商跟进。要知道此前行业内无人能提供10.9元的条件，若加盟商一旦翻牌，身边的店铺也有可能产生连锁反应，预计会有大量竞争店铺翻牌成为瑞幸门店。瑞幸这样的策略无疑给新进入者带来巨大压力，如果没有足够的规模效应和成本管控，很容易陷入杯量和客单价两难的困境。以库迪为例，根据业内人士的计算，每杯9.9元咖啡，毛利不到4块，要达到门店盈亏平衡点，每天需要售出300杯左右，这样每个月的现金流仅有900万，远远不能支撑快速扩张。因此，库迪必须依靠加快开店速度才能获得融资支持各项运营，这也解释了库迪为什么在7月底喊出5000家门店的目标，因为不这样做就无力填补资金缺口。与此同时，超低价格让库迪的加盟商利润微乎其微，回本无期，加盟意愿下降。这让库迪面临两难：必须提价才能获利，但提价则会降低杯量，削弱加盟吸引力。更要命的是，瑞幸推出的每周9.9元活动让库迪无力再反击，本来想通过新店促销后提价获利的加盟商，现在只能继续陪跑价格战。这些新进入者在快速扩张过程中，也曾暴露出许多加盟品牌共性的问题，比如选址缺乏区域保护导致店间抢客，人员培训不足使品控不稳定，全加盟模式下加盟商素质参差，为节约成本出现诸多运营乱象。种种问题叠加，扩张速度难免让人担忧其管理水平匹配度。总结为何今天中国咖啡市场会聚焦在10-15元这个价格区间，消费者的选择从星巴克转向瑞幸、库迪？这是因为广大消费者对这个价位的产品有需求，瑞幸抓住了这一机遇，用低价切入市场直接抢走了星巴克的份额。同理，如果库迪坚持打9.9元的价格战，而瑞幸不作出应对，也极可能流失部分市场，这一战无法避免。咖啡市场本身进入门槛确实不高，规模效应带来的成本优势才是最重要的护城河，为消费者提供更实惠的产品，保证市场占有率。随着瑞幸的最新业绩亮相，以及新进入者面临的困境显露，让市场逐渐看清了这一点。单靠低价疯狂开店是远远不够的，“价格战”还得凭实力说话。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3559770134796747","authorId":"3559770134796747","name":"牛逼的泡泡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bf6916652a79d7028c26078fd497da4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"想多了，星巴克其实不贵的。毕竟人家在市价好地段能提供第三方空间，具有非常划算的社交属性与办公属性","text":"想多了，星巴克其实不贵的。毕竟人家在市价好地段能提供第三方空间，具有非常划算的社交属性与办公属性","html":"想多了，星巴克其实不贵的。毕竟人家在市价好地段能提供第三方空间，具有非常划算的社交属性与办公属性"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":278801969361128,"gmtCreate":1709076792870,"gmtModify":1709076796059,"author":{"id":"4120360017010400","authorId":"4120360017010400","name":"一个了不起的故事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ee8ea6bdd1c0b0dad01fd85a077f35e","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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